sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5164dd86f2094c98dbfdbc999ec673083c879323 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x2d606a51f902a4d934a4b810dd77cb28bb8e40268f42354057b5a47f9799efad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Poor Things" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | Event: oscars-2024-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Barbie" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | Event: oscars-2024-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Justin Fields be traded to the La... | no | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,261,704 | 60,261,704 |
a17278df2d1f71e8a0a1b6de358ed07a5a85aff1 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x9e9071636d176562592a98dfede865385ba0cff7864cfa01f0479ca6e9e26e1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Barbie" win the Oscar for Best Picture? | Event: oscars-2024-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Justin Fields be traded to the Las Vegas Raiders? | Event: justin-fields-next-team | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Justin Fields remain on the Be... | yes | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,261,704 | 60,261,704 |
aae2b9f44a4e2f17351792fb711c5361f433ad87 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x1652ed7c8396de76eb1c18c202e75def313f836c8184f52ae4236ca26990f115 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Justin Fields be traded to the Las Vegas Raiders? | Event: justin-fields-next-team | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Justin Fields remain on the Bears? | Event: justin-fields-next-team | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Justin Fields be traded to the New Eng... | no | 1 | new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? | 60,268,338 | 63,963,815 |
7c6cb59b562b4150b3be25cdec8a038a6c4b0eeb | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xbe453e2646482373c289fe485ef7bb0d76c92ae3aa50a720c38533e9814dd49e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Justin Fields remain on the Bears? | Event: justin-fields-next-team | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Justin Fields be traded to the New England Patriots? | Event: justin-fields-next-team | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SBF sentence between 30 and 40 years? | ... | no | 1 | fact-check-foreign-government-behind-attempt-on-trump | Fact Check: Foreign government behind attempt on Trump? | 61,310,575 | 61,310,575 |
d0e9d0b965fc077920b68d29584b2b7d8b34ff28 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x9a6aae9fbe7ebfea1527b25b0b83e7fcf22ccc6216deb414c3e830266dfc36ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Justin Fields be traded to the New England Patriots? | Event: justin-fields-next-team | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: SBF sentence between 30 and 40 years? | Event: how-long-will-sbfs-sentence-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SBF sentence between 40 and 50 yea... | no | 1 | fox-news-hosts-debate-between-trump-harris | Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate? | 63,100,524 | 63,100,524 |
e5f359026f30ce689ab471a9ca1640f5b7b1fa23 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x325038359610a566c0963c9f0ea2ea33b2ddedf7808898c4ed4166787213f1b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: SBF sentence between 30 and 40 years? | Event: how-long-will-sbfs-sentence-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: SBF sentence between 40 and 50 years? | Event: how-long-will-sbfs-sentence-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SBF sentence between 20 and 30 years? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | trump-sentenced-to-how-much-prison-time | Trump sentenced to no prison time? | 63,908,280 | 63,908,280 |
25418ec195efc13e522e1aab59276c7b0901337e | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x4215c8a5b70a185b1b808fa49411a83c02e22bc35d48bd8d61d141c3365f91eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: SBF sentence between 40 and 50 years? | Event: how-long-will-sbfs-sentence-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: SBF sentence between 20 and 30 years? | Event: how-long-will-sbfs-sentence-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Australia win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eu... | no | 1 | biden-removed-via-25th-amendment-before-election | Biden removed via 25th Amendment? | 63,908,280 | 63,908,280 |
764e66cc115d52815c2e9be7999086e7afd22975 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x21559998482bf5dfbcaf0f5409edd34eebd84c8998df622f9da8ff1e1f248a26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: SBF sentence between 20 and 30 years? | Event: how-long-will-sbfs-sentence-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Australia win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | C... | yes | 0 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will someone else be inaugurated? | 63,936,780 | 63,936,780 |
d3c21d86fce52a66f430490a1907d92ab3df8f73 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xfefbd6fa16a276839af9d87e7e649b0ccc90a2b36e63b5e48f50fb8da76bcb33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Conf... | no | 1 | virginia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? | 63,950,094 | 63,950,094 |
040c1877004fc1bcd7d13e413a53c3645b33f207 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x0a573d0d2e1f013707b2b6b5429b35db371fdb31f67909ed719abb381b1de6e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Greece win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election? | 63,958,502 | 63,958,502 |
9d04a6426dfe5c784fb129ae6c89d48be231126c | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x5f71c0396254199eca645d987c489df1690e6a42eefc9c5b377b7bf68f7ee926 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Georgia win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Greece win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Norway win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 1 | new-jersey-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win New Jersey Presidential Election? | 63,958,502 | 63,958,502 |
a795b116641626fdaf1421364ae0e160d21b9d5c | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xb31067bef802154e2a6fbe1fff825bf2769860dfa829c4bf71463bc357df3023 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Greece win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Norway win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sweden win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | west-virginia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win West Virginia Presidential Election? | 63,958,502 | 63,958,502 |
e5c115e67ad62b4f5cd20567e5068b018b2ca68f | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xfa5a7ff654fb16fbbba2891bb08888d7b876581fed0e09c108919a8ec9732f18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Norway win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sweden win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Austria win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | new-jersey-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win New Jersey Presidential Election? | 63,958,502 | 63,958,502 |
3146d8c8b66b6bf35e38c0c050e60dcd646edbf8 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x0fb3071db6a07c5e7ec2e94db77ac94d580788aec6f223f618662cb7f3e95cde | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sweden win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Austria win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 1 | connecticut-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Connecticut Presidential Election? | 63,963,815 | 63,963,815 |
f5c2cec9a612c2b73b6af4825cfe3fe6f7e0cfb8 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x1c4a876957f0c70fb3a579d714c1c125bf14bcc0a6d47073115a1855cd4dd9ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Austria win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Italy win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | new-hampshire-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,963,815 | 63,963,815 |
9de76f2372cd28ba541be53958ad1e59ed5dccdb | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x7519824e6a81fe711904c58b0f1aca91e6ddcf3d10510eb84d6a26338f025910 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Finland win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | indiana-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Indiana Presidential Election? | 63,963,815 | 63,963,815 |
b80c796f8ce0a3d955ba9ce8fc5a5e61c0b96d9c | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x84ae8a9029afe095843d6497f722ace0bae937192848a55f96d8e2b2d5e950da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Finland win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 1 | what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Will the AP call the election on November 7? | 63,963,815 | 63,963,815 |
a763bc66ccbb6cd9efbb58c3925723542d1b5d50 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xa93ffdf20f163f8968e73d9bafd9e95ee9759d74eaf073a7868693a17dfec9fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Finland win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Armenia win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | massachusetts-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Massachusetts Presidential Election? | 63,963,815 | 63,963,815 |
c56622a57c765711e86ca4b9600aebe418e2ecc7 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xc4efefe6e5ce0d8d4a20efd7fe9f8c90df447341f21fd66f55566d128768cc31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Armenia win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the United Kingdom win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice:... | yes | 1 | idaho-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Idaho Presidential Election? | 63,963,815 | 63,963,815 |
c227cc73e787883307b38aede94b622b45659366 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xd3ef230e5b67a6ef488fb69c58b16644beed3c09a4716cbd2f8cd52a62c71e92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Armenia win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the United Kingdom win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Poland win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-the-ap-call-the-election | Will the AP call the election on November 6? | 63,963,815 | 63,963,815 |
88dc7fb4e3ee859e8e12380ff46373f217591091 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x2dcaf14b767e1b22b18d46a91633435f8e724a7e8b75cfa51280b499e4f1cdcc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the United Kingdom win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Poland win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice... | yes | 1 | oregon-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Oregon Presidential Election? | 63,968,961 | 63,968,961 |
33a3a40829fba901d4bf00a20b11863ac854ccd5 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x24ace0c29dc2c801992ea6b7c795d3e7c4f2ad40343bc9f0becef694b2ef197f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Poland win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ireland win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Con... | yes | 1 | california-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win California Presidential Election? | 63,969,252 | 63,969,252 |
7b28aa9d7db890c57d2d107d27cc89cf5d8c42cd | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x6964df311eba3add433112c9ab13ef529c8e2e07e7c115b9cc548de035f5b25f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ireland win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tucker Carlson win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-... | no | 1 | california-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win California Presidential Election? | 63,969,252 | 63,969,252 |
c92acae6f5bb426c9c0e48644776a072c387526b | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x4364972f0b5f33379092da7564811c02acd0069d45c7c3046cfb17f9f01cd236 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ireland win Eurovision 2024? | Event: eurovision-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tucker Carlson win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Remco Evenepoel win the 2024 Tour de France? | ... | no | 0.077854 | will-trump-jail-hillary-clinton | Will Trump jail Hillary Clinton? | 64,015,172 | 64,015,172 |
e3824b658c68da614627675bc0568c0cf6423fc6 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x805d5d29303a29387e9b541f5c7405bcea69f8ef56137ce174356cb0e548d3ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tucker Carlson win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Remco Evenepoel win the 2024 Tour de France? | Event: tour-de-france-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another contestant win the ... | yes | 0.000006 | trump-ends-taxes-on-tips-in-first-100-days | Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? | 64,025,597 | 64,381,776 |
83e6b188dfadec6ff8eac14383dc600fd3c657e9 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x475e0fd32b211c0cfe6755638efceba2373d01a7224c7750f77f978db104f639 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Remco Evenepoel win the 2024 Tour de France? | Event: tour-de-france-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another contestant win the 2024 Tour de France? | Event: tour-de-france-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Primoz Roglic win the 2024 Tour d... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 | 64,125,401 | 64,125,401 |
fabf5049bd5daec57992b7137b59984cfc1f3d76 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x8f20ff6ed2ba1e234f35e701a50c274ffb64fdd8d621254d017db0445486ab79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another contestant win the 2024 Tour de France? | Event: tour-de-france-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Primoz Roglic win the 2024 Tour de France? | Event: tour-de-france-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump x Biden golf announced before Augu... | yes | 1 | nevada-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election? | 64,125,401 | 64,125,401 |
a5047e1d366a48c73dc9e84d00ec7543ee377bb0 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xb0a06b05d49947a302d0c3648add3b6d6660380de6bdb6b79f0007f18daf3adb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Primoz Roglic win the 2024 Tour de France? | Event: tour-de-france-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump x Biden golf announced before August? | Event: trump-x-biden-golf-announced-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jill Biden charged with elder... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ | 64,125,401 | 64,125,401 |
6220bf072852bbdc591d3c59bd71ed2d60a507c1 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xd6c186dd4a5167684c27462d0bb541bd22ca4861298c00ade1991c6240364762 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump x Biden golf announced before August? | Event: trump-x-biden-golf-announced-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Jill Biden charged with elder abuse? | Event: jill-biden-charged-with-elder-abuse | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Michelle Obama win the... | no | 0.000002 | will-trump-create-a-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-his-first-100-days | Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | 64,128,851 | 64,128,851 |
0650aa74c6570a5cf7655bcf96db773961ef0d30 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x0c12d7b5322f432a0c4ac8806b476c7483c4d44061ca1188b6f749ec9db34996 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jill Biden charged with elder abuse? | Event: jill-biden-charged-with-elder-abuse | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris wi... | no | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | 64,215,956 | 64,215,956 |
ffa0283d594eca7947aade949d27df8411f55027 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x9fce1292bea6748addd9a96632ab7455f64028671816e964a692686573079574 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2024 | Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? | 64,290,482 | 66,174,105 |
b67c60abde898c9fb1f94cd17169be434bc054ce | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x9c23593b309f27a4e05f059032d59c2a37f8bb10d126ac7e22014593a07fa9a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? | Event: new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | 64,348,920 | 64,348,920 |
4c63330c359177767ed0346c91017266e1ef9986 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x3e2ecf07bf051d63ea9b9e851eadf79d7da21265bf967c406c70ec10eaf1b0ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? | Event: new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fact Check: Foreign government behind attempt on Trump? | Event: fact-check-foreign-government-behind-attempt-on-trump | Choice: no | Confidenc... | yes | 0.56565 | will-russia-use-a-nuclear-weapon-in-2024 | Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? | 65,028,260 | 65,028,260 |
4836cd634cf78f5ba6b6800415c859545c31943d | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x0e85e94301db0e38e25f0650ab649c3a4485b5fc9734a8b6abf3d0da0ee6dd55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fact Check: Foreign government behind attempt on Trump? | Event: fact-check-foreign-government-behind-attempt-on-trump | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate? | Event: fox-news-hosts-debate-between-trump-harris | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | will-joe-pardon-hunter-biden | Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden? | 65,107,004 | 65,107,004 |
30524e8b0e4699ac0d31c95a312d6397725dd6be | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x71da2bbc04a7eae0d8ef739c17025d85917c0ea7db07646b6400a4f6ccb9f304 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate? | Event: fox-news-hosts-debate-between-trump-harris | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump sentenced to no prison time? | Event: trump-sentenced-to-how-much-prison-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Biden removed via 25th Am... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? | 65,885,450 | 65,885,450 |
7d38dd60e005aa81e6a81f1acda708b53464dff9 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x2ff1998f452d2f42759dd33a02884a9ba3f9ebc629a60e56e370b3a2823d58de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump sentenced to no prison time? | Event: trump-sentenced-to-how-much-prison-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Biden removed via 25th Amendment? | Event: biden-removed-via-25th-amendment-before-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will someone else be inaugur... | no | 1 | mark-zuckerberg-out-as-facebook-ceo-in-2024 | Mark Zuckerberg out as Facebook CEO in 2024? | 66,174,105 | 66,174,105 |
2265767de6f514d15bacbed51ae76da632566bf7 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0x231aa55682ef2bd15dc527915d9c683b38120f8c55be15ffd67201b4a98c9007 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Biden removed via 25th Amendment? | Event: biden-removed-via-25th-amendment-before-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will someone else be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.669996938895611e-07
3. Question: Will a Republi... | yes | 1 | trump-in-jail-before-inauguration | Trump in jail before inauguration? | 66,947,281 | 66,947,281 |
c21b0c61470477aaed26e05185ef5591c90fbc30 | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xc3d4155148681756bfe67bb41d8d0882a8a122e7d3762b3591bf6598c9bd198b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.669996938895611e-07
2. Question: Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | 66,947,281 | 66,947,281 |
049b838280a9bbed0fb19f55fed275c236a2acae | 0x0b644e443a404159a7b5ca4650cf2444b13549bd | 0xc5a29d7da91c765c5b8b45dc5f86147558ad0d16bb18e7ca14a74e3b5e3ebf9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? | Event: virginia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election? | Event: new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | 66,947,281 | 66,947,281 |
57645cb5952787f0e4d76f5541e0586fcdb226d8 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xc53c00d3ed7df96cb528e049ca2d8a6056b620a82bfffd3ad58d35c5f92c02d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency?
Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | 64,057,530 | 64,057,530 |
50cac74d17ec2b511122cbcd982947a78fd1cbb8 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xdec0fcedabb3026d971f53ff120d749f18eb0679eac7cfa046191eb90936d6cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw?
Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece
Predict ... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | 64,410,817 | 64,410,817 |
75a9192edac5228b4c915d5994502d13c5159c17 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x265e1601e44f098e0ec3a9e9d196da2385dc73dc8f30790ba3c96fa5f8c28eb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | conmebol-colombia-vs-ecuador | Will the match between Colombia and Ecuador end in a draw? | 64,519,515 | 64,519,515 |
2824d69bd0ab14e0a09aedf9cfdd52f78cedd996 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x2b110b17b14afb6fee4b32465e92bec40685f4fd557235b1f9d885e1d793f38e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | conmebol-chile-vs-venezuela | Will the match between Chile and Venezuela end in a draw? | 64,519,515 | 64,519,515 |
28d136680f9682c9a2230faa74ac03913f4098db | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x5005d5e2acb6461b14b0489f67faacd75efe9ad456cc3b566887d4c6140c356d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | conmebol-chile-vs-venezuela | Will Venezuela beat Chile? | 64,519,515 | 64,519,515 |
0462e8a320071dfd292b0554305b29fce1259e72 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x72c5244aa41398b3853819c5c11df60f24b9eea05c5baf936b5a4f7b5012cceb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | mavericks | 1 | nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Mavericks vs. Nuggets | 64,627,278 | 64,627,278 |
96c0119c98b0102b2ec669eba5b20fc280db7415 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x04abf872edaa40b806452bdcc9bea6e5fe1962d98d164a9ddfb05e5cdfff37aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Will Spurs win on 2024-11-23? | 64,651,716 | 64,651,716 |
76ff8405e64fb58264ee0a340f8040149e5bdf95 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xc0c4600be9725f8390239443b4d4b8d03966862dd03de485d82d7d9da2d99d10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Will Man City vs. Spurs end in a draw? | 64,651,791 | 64,651,791 |
8a42e43c0b58fe2a42c0065cb76063049dbe47b8 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x133e4744717c5fe957b8fc0d0bcd7951117cf02e4802521d2bf5248118ecb5bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-mun-2024-11-24 | Will Ipswich vs. Man Utd end in a draw? | 64,689,789 | 64,689,789 |
775f1eec91754287256d64ac8e79982d46b11f2b | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x354000748b08a79c77afc332c5c7d1e71046aac8e9d47abde7f6630589e36850 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-mun-2024-11-24 | Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-24? | 64,689,789 | 64,689,789 |
d03321b9771d5bc18e6e4b732b94037479abcab3 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x0a833564a76ed5973349bc9caaf88979858c8eb2f38c64902a2f9e41dfd6309f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Will Newcastle vs. West Ham end in a draw? | 64,736,558 | 64,736,558 |
5856002dfa0ae655d2baaff05455a56f20ca36c3 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xdeed500651a34d11e298bcfb1b3ceaf4b955b3c9435026ec6dec3800429bfcdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | 64,736,558 | 64,736,558 |
751264840c1428be668feb8bbf52f0651fbe1c8e | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x66c863e417eb08c8532fab32e948c9744570dc867293abc7f24fd5e6ecdec463 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get less than 50m views on day 1? | 64,966,161 | 64,966,161 |
b794ba43783cd78458a931cf3353d494d08dd47a | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xfbf65e1fe1730ed9651f141ec8eca77d73f2770f1d7e3fb597f880e6418c9d38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get between 50m-75m views on day 1? | 64,966,161 | 64,966,161 |
164ec81ef6b333b260cdf4f99e1cae02b1ef8cf5 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x0168b53efbac5533e6e43d6fb35936258b27fdbcc350f5c22dfe416fd6511892 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Will Liverpool vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | 64,969,312 | 64,969,312 |
010a933844dc2a59c18ccc6e551a7db36f3511ba | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x2d294a457e49c6f47873360f032dc1dd40d16e547f58807c8e0546c56d57ba15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Will Southampton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 65,093,773 | 65,093,773 |
2867d87715566b5e3160ca95cb655293afbd10b0 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x307e2fffe64bae2836d4708f90e433b40af04078ea4320bba18319c1a4880cee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? | 65,093,773 | 65,093,773 |
e27bf99931c3ba93337bfa2eb7c65e3cdd822b76 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x9286d97d2680340b71393353fc100a96ca40f98436241e54275ea4d38d385b00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | 65,093,773 | 65,093,773 |
2ef975446a892eced405eac4222a8abf8dbc9a5c | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xd226783f2690b9b6799586ac42b88e5b3fbc0a7385eaa2e833d50e1270876482 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | 65,093,773 | 65,093,773 |
1285c60c52ad1982cac18608969eec0aae13f0fe | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x03b1313b516dd4a9f2448a771939c96a30dafdf675319cd2ffae6bafa7453b14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | 65,534,220 | 65,534,220 |
e7b196839edd5b807b377c401a8382742e8d6611 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xf194cec52cb848e1448b1914a899ff7abb9c170ecc2a23aa61f0e2fda9cbb10a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Will Southampton vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | 65,534,220 | 65,534,220 |
250df36013943f73ba9a416815b9a86a2232fc09 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xff2c40b8240df861c52952e645fb6871ea9219b5a4a5c285d26f43e9a5e9bcc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-bri-2024-12-21 | Will West Ham vs. Brighton end in a draw? | 65,766,438 | 65,766,438 |
472504354fa584d14b71310ed96b0466e8264ffc | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x10d4b8be262719f769832aed72e4608db377600814bd9d51d905e70d3c5090e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-ars-2024-12-21 | Will Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | 65,770,677 | 65,770,677 |
012cfabe1b5279d0f19d6e2d01b10f00a8d8d20e | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x8c6ceecb9cbe639931134510528ae328bae4b39b9d699c8d7e855139a99608c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-ars-2024-12-21 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-21? | 65,770,677 | 65,770,677 |
68f3ba1951c7d36cb24f88ece9010bcc7726d968 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xa022c47b119f8959c02b2fdd4edd57030e29352a25f38302d4c58ec42ea3395a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Will Tottenham vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | 65,806,601 | 65,806,601 |
075ad5678c0e5d3098e45433bfd544ca6b042ec5 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x0322883fc9a40a02562b3022628b10616a3219ce0196612303834e785bcec354 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? | 65,806,836 | 65,806,836 |
764819191404f9a206c357a595ec1253afa65ce1 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x031543c613c6fabcd7602c39646859189a4f64cfb67dcaf0f05e97d23f064dcf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-eve-2024-12-26 | Will Manchester City vs. Everton end in a draw? | 65,956,081 | 65,956,081 |
9d4cfed216a90548b9c2e612e8ac3be14cfc31e2 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x5d6af2454c799de67232dcd3e06ba217fe49424e2cfbe67a7b5ca31779e20247 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-eve-2024-12-26 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-26? | 65,956,081 | 65,956,081 |
a4488c6df835f9a38fb5101ba302c97e6f833942 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x548a5cb5a632f4a5d1a69dcb2e72789b42709a3bc3507ce96fe60a5ed5dc30b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-not-tot-2024-12-26 | Will Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | 65,958,844 | 65,958,844 |
be2eb398816637af46e9d0e38a0e1225c83e0be0 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x71655a00ff016d2905ac15a61809bba07ff97b870b633fccc3429b4becb03b6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-not-tot-2024-12-26 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-26? | 65,958,844 | 65,958,844 |
6f8749711e045d4fb483f063501f30cc1f441f2c | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x268c0c748f9dddf54503abb6529e38917ad17857e519559ba2e2eb3df511af57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-wes-2024-12-26 | Will Southampton vs. West Ham end in a draw? | 65,959,398 | 65,959,398 |
49fb9520d10626eae2a9df630307bfd3e8a7d6be | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x4730e89f98be1e318778358254515cc096525525787d3e51739a1a807ea1c819 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between Finland and Greece end in a draw? | Event: uefa-nations-league-finland-vs-greece | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Colombia and Ecuador end in a draw? | Event: conmebol-colombia-vs-ecuador | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-cry-2024-12-26 | Will Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw? | 65,959,398 | 65,959,398 |
14ff4f93f84bd3ebecdf06852aff76158bede26a | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xae430ccfe4d23933ce1c918ad56557e46393db2963d3091854720e29bf4d0cf0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between Colombia and Ecuador end in a draw? | Event: conmebol-colombia-vs-ecuador | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between Chile and Venezuela end in a draw? | Event: conmebol-chile-vs-venezuela | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Venezu... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-cry-2024-12-26 | Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-26? | 65,959,398 | 65,959,398 |
3e58a2eb838150809cbd71aea98018ffa539c5a8 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xd9ee4a93fc4c5849a5918c9b4c9997dcaa3df9c2f2efc2bda26b75cd650aec13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between Chile and Venezuela end in a draw? | Event: conmebol-chile-vs-venezuela | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Venezuela beat Chile? | Event: conmebol-chile-vs-venezuela | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-wes-2024-12-26 | Will West Ham win on 2024-12-26? | 65,959,398 | 65,959,398 |
f045bc17417c889f7ed448d46373091315d6183e | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x3e53141b9fbd3997bb97f16d24b2a23970c29bb9ecad9d347e31f0f77dfd237e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Venezuela beat Chile? | Event: conmebol-chile-vs-venezuela | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-lei-2024-12-26 | Will Leicester win on 2024-12-26? | 65,968,397 | 65,968,397 |
7485521db59936f5602b1774326e0786ee2229f4 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x1572cb62fb20b82ab035fd88d168b4d0dcffb9438031ab90eb4d60576b71f4c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Man City vs. Spurs end in a draw? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-sou-2024-12-29 | Will Crystal Palace vs. Southampton end in a draw? | 66,076,208 | 66,076,208 |
c784c3a72cbedc55491ded49879949e57c0f8f0f | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x930d8fa3edf9f3291e7b0fcf98d311ec8014c74f443310c5f5d9b112b1e7729d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City vs. Spurs end in a draw? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich vs. Man Utd end in a draw? | Event: epl-ips-mun-2024-11-2... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-not-2024-12-29 | Will Everton vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | 66,076,208 | 66,076,208 |
ee810f233c046610974b08fdbcfb091e9f16005e | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x0c95dc86a356272364e267740a4ae9a74513fd647602ff7c14f127089846daba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Man City vs. Spurs end in a draw? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich vs. Man Utd end in a draw? | Event: epl-ips-mun-2024-11-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-24? | Event: epl-ips-mun-2024-11... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-bou-2024-12-29 | Will Fulham win on 2024-12-29? | 66,076,433 | 66,076,433 |
f663033510cb2fba027322481510c78929aa2594 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xce25d36e1cb4fd1ac2c422131a799feb9c33ace13d4fa896aec1c02c1f3a39f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ipswich vs. Man Utd end in a draw? | Event: epl-ips-mun-2024-11-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-24? | Event: epl-ips-mun-2024-11-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-wes-202... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Will Tottenham vs. Wolves end in a draw? | 66,076,433 | 66,076,433 |
834e8337172520bf2d3b776bac94fd7f18af3e06 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x6abee4ecc4e96085d312832960c9f55ddaea6336e64f6daba3fd63c358a67410 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-24? | Event: epl-ips-mun-2024-11-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-che-2024-12-30 | Will Ipswich vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 66,124,419 | 66,124,419 |
175e6248c913afbf32aa00634f1b4342e0c600ab | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x82820433bd86a391bd61b92eefe08c877aa8045a9c33846a5d80d25c15ed0669 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get less than 50m views on day 1? ... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-new-2024-12-30 | Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-30? | 66,124,419 | 66,124,419 |
c0078ffab1bdd097f03d49acabad37cac9c1c057 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xb56b985b285f5c20e1e2e50114a41f8c31aa1ca8bfc9c7cf190c0c0a58c26253 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? | Event: epl-new-wes-2024-11-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get less than 50m views on day 1? | Event: mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast x Ronal... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-bri-2024-12-30 | Will Aston Villa vs. Brighton end in a draw? | 66,124,419 | 66,124,419 |
429af0f849530053a735434f4149140ee350a919 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xe9f3f7cc981fe802f3f04b2bc3d2ae02349d3ceb8ba2bd9c619455f501ab13e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get less than 50m views on day 1? | Event: mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get between 50m-75m views on day 1? | Event: mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-ars-2025-01-01 | Will Brentford vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | 66,196,106 | 66,196,106 |
0b52d9096bce24ccdda9dfc860d16a6fa16dc7b6 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xd380e26f8265723ed69245bba11c05272d5f103476f398f143f856c575b71f70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get between 50m-75m views on day 1? | Event: mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | how-many-ballots-to-elect-next-speaker | Will the next US Speaker be elected in one ballot? | 66,275,165 | 66,275,165 |
2ce2acec4fd4e3b123e083643c8d1df550aa2c9c | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x46d2f51c680c3ecb92d7f8c8f04f488f88a6abebef179a72a382a37930df4b27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-... | no | 1 | epl-tot-new-2025-01-04 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-04? | 66,306,534 | 66,306,534 |
057c0ad18b2b63665551e3c685ce16b4bab06ad2 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x560fdb21767306deb63f3b794d0198248c765841a0e2f6dccbfafb63a6e5897e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Southampton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-li... | maple leafs | 1 | nhl-bos-tor-2025-01-04 | Bruins vs. Maple Leafs | 66,325,978 | 66,325,978 |
6acbeb3b0bfb3f794ab4aed38a20344346664ba5 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x4f10ba569f9b3589a1bca4b719d73b28ce5f05555decf7f0845b6450a538d386 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,536,770 | 66,536,770 |
6ab2005426316535e727cd8f53765cdd5906a7aa | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x257444e22c041ff227168f39ed152faf2da67711fb2f6ce5504266511506f553 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-1... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,543,338 | 66,543,338 |
04c1fad46f0bc13c0a35e141cf5d9dd36c50bf58 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x99027e405731cec721127a7d96da3c28bc9a6d83638596193d91b561a718cbf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Southampton vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,543,338 | 66,543,338 |
6ed33e7c34b6a4e08621617fbb3153a1fb127971 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x6293e72f178370d8513e780320da33863db7dc280a597a2d463d2e2a00f96662 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham vs. Brighton end in a draw? | Event: epl-wes-... | magic | 1 | nba-phi-orl-2025-01-12 | 76ers vs. Magic | 66,634,611 | 66,634,611 |
71a9db9cfda77d29ff27e81a1c2d9770d6b785aa | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xebdbc8c7e5ff63f77b75d0ae087902b91a238b5751770cfc4f81da5ea58fa092 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Southampton vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham vs. Brighton end in a draw? | Event: epl-wes-bri-2024-12-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Ev... | yes | 1 | epl-not-liv-2025-01-14 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-14? | 66,711,092 | 66,711,092 |
d4104f6cc364bdbcddf12a913d5719e99f797c9b | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x2ef9572df49ed87e68e986342847178e876d701be36e84a5c1d86e5f4ccb161e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham vs. Brighton end in a draw? | Event: epl-wes-bri-2024-12-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ars-2024-12-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-21? | Event: epl-cry-a... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-sou-2025-01-16 | Will Southampton win on 2025-01-16? | 66,791,842 | 66,791,842 |
f004638fd640958268da00887e6467ceb41e2bd1 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x52671dc13e00f9086444da74f6b01f1a29eb0d1d86af5187cd2319fcd19dcb5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ars-2024-12-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-21? | Event: epl-cry-ars-2024-12-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-sou-2025-01-16 | Will Manchester United vs. Southampton end in a draw? | 66,791,842 | 66,791,842 |
2b1e807766e3c0df1390533641e6d02d61d6b1da | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xdbfa34f5c5c9d1e2c3c5c82f210411ab4bf627dd0aba517989dc37d74431d25a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-21? | Event: epl-cry-ars-2024-12-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-10-17 | Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Jan 10-17? | 66,823,294 | 66,823,294 |
a57d2b5760fe97820abe27a68d40580c4ea65bd6 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xe5addd87b070dae5b1360df66a47c54486a8af5d24b6dd58b9341fe28bd6ecbc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Everton end in a draw? | Event: epl-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-10-17-25-strikes | Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 10-17? | 66,823,294 | 66,823,294 |
29eff7f53e7e96bc9391c2f5f19804feea354008 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x2314e7f043881010b65cb14908494dfdc8b5ec9416fac883d4940873f3a080b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Everton end in a draw? | Event: epl-mac-eve-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-mac-... | yes | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-2 | Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 21? | 67,002,211 | 67,002,211 |
e44d74037fdafd93843c23fa334ef104f1bddc74 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xdbc38b9ce8ca57c0f5665fa35c6bdd0f08db8ad590ff9b49271b9b682a81975d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Everton end in a draw? | Event: epl-mac-eve-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-mac-eve-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham end in a draw?... | yes | 1 | ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-sporting-cp | Will RB Leipzig beat Sporting CP? | 67,027,303 | 67,027,303 |
26efb9b8baf72c2e4340255cfc798f1879aee838 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xfc7a6b8d488cb8415b4528cec97931133a27c95a912bc60cb348bedcb108c241 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-mac-eve-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-tot-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-26? | Eve... | yes | 1 | ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-stade-brestois | Will Stade Brestois beat Shakhtar Donetsk? | 67,027,303 | 67,027,303 |
d6401d7bae216798641224a4f774f0a722f45739 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x58adca5cd436b2e1bedf5a965cc2d922f3f5f1e318441faf8c66375214cbba2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-tot-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-not-tot-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Southampton vs. West Ham end in a draw? ... | yes | 1 | uel-viktoria-plzen-vs-anderlecht | Will the match between Viktoria Plzen and Anderlecht end in a draw? | 67,083,816 | 67,083,816 |
b46b1732f9c69b09f79057cbe0cb5cd8f4b266ee | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xd42090c082824eb380cc0707c0929e66bc20254d180497a99268269ac8fe7108 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-not-tot-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-sou-wes-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw? |... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-17-24 | Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24? | 67,140,887 | 67,140,887 |
1f5ff2266ff61c2a838bfa1cce4777f892d49e5d | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x1e25e77b4b69645611db3d6df08e515d9fe5d1c58883b978dab919d17ff18ea3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Southampton vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-sou-wes-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-cry-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-26? | Event... | yes | 1 | president-trump-of-tweets-january-22-29 | Will POTUS tweet 15-19 times Jan 22-29? | 67,302,861 | 67,302,861 |
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