sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
30fac0e27a6d68b157f27a4fb1d5bb106557218b | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x523a8ec4c760566b3fe432749411545d85f93bd1f579ffd1eff94d3e9940ec7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-cry-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-bou-cry-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-sou-we... | yes | 1 | president-trump-of-tweets-january-22-29 | Will POTUS tweet 10-14 times Jan 22-29? | 67,302,861 | 67,302,861 |
44bbc7adb3d4ab8b169a2395be1a2aa53bb3cd84 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x169b0b6718026cd8c9e52fab6f26acdbc296cbfe7769d4c6a84b4a1def2659e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-bou-cry-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-sou-wes-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Leicester win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-liv-lei-2024-12-26 | Ch... | yes | 1 | how-many-times-will-kanye-tweet-today-2-7-2025 | Will Kanye tweet 60-79 times on February 7? | 68,181,674 | 68,181,674 |
471e1f8e177fdb8fa64e9911c1d082e67cb372a3 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x91f0876cc6b9b5896f9386e66b54af07c94977d5365155c4a58bc58891a5e31b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-sou-wes-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leicester win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-liv-lei-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Southampton end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-sou-... | yes | 1 | how-many-times-will-kanye-tweet-today-2-7-2025 | Will Kanye tweet 80-99 times on February 7? | 68,181,674 | 68,181,674 |
219e93e7193922ff2ad2e7723bf3e42a616f633b | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x011892d762e147bf3b437c7958596b88326e8be6f34f7594af4c4205f395b9d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-liv-lei-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Southampton end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-sou-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Ev... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21? | 68,211,612 | 68,211,612 |
7bb9d74df288fd72b2271c61022c00a31f5b99cb | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x5dc110a4a84e25564634fcaf9135ebc24ac32b9cce2e2e9451ce1dc8a71a4ac4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Southampton end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-sou-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-not-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-29? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-liv-2025-02-23 | Will Manchester City vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | 68,292,028 | 68,292,028 |
4bdc06e288dd65b7538741bd3772e15820644d9e | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xc3fdbef046f465fddde59b579f72073e956511ac438c71419cbf5d4f5729d573 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-not-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-ful-bou-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Wolves end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-liv-2025-02-23 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-23? | 68,292,028 | 68,292,028 |
5cbfcdbd08f84d616f9252e9fc268bfc9cf6b469 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x241d94bedf9ab97f7b5bbfa5c28546827ec0a7508247e1c4e586e6bd2fd07302 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-ful-bou-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Wolves end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ips-che-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-eve-2025-02-26 | Will Brentford vs. Everton end in a draw? | 68,418,767 | 68,418,767 |
b262560d370a4dd7382413e89690054b74ab8214 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x3a998cf76a73e7701069d35572a9c36a90fde6a15fca12ed6600f6c70654551a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Wolves end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ips-che-2024-12-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-30? | Event: epl-mun-new-202... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-mac-2025-02-26 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-26? | 68,418,767 | 68,418,767 |
b48ea0d9af4c824394bc4f34cb0173ffcb434f92 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xfb178547e84095b4a312392a4d703268f372935daec86e5795305db424c3ab00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ipswich vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-ips-che-2024-12-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-30? | Event: epl-mun-new-2024-12-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Brighton end in a draw? | Event: epl-ast-bri... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28? | 68,486,752 | 68,486,752 |
944ab8143d47bb4dde42329b3aa325c1c5c66270 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x2082b73bebdbad1eab3cdfa45f2645848e114eefe029b26962432f26029a8022 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-30? | Event: epl-mun-new-2024-12-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Brighton end in a draw? | Event: epl-ast-bri-2024-12-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Event: epl-bre-a... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28? | 68,492,438 | 68,492,438 |
3d2558f053ddc379835ab01592c8bc8ce4185765 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xe33a5cd7f57ca1eec3ce8dedc61711e68d9ce0d7ba2814339868fa04f2f1d09c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Brighton end in a draw? | Event: epl-ast-bri-2024-12-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Event: epl-bre-ars-2025-01-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next US Speaker be elected in one ballot? |... | yes | 1 | ucl-bru-ast-2025-03-04 | Will Club Brugge vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | 68,655,591 | 68,655,591 |
6c0979d00e6dea7e4f1c18747b6bcae137bee298 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x5c099a464f508b907916b57b9b16715f37a0086aa14815078565c6514f2d4843 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Event: epl-bre-ars-2025-01-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next US Speaker be elected in one ballot? | Event: how-many-ballots-to-elect-next-speaker | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-0... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-28-mar-7 | Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7? | 68,771,909 | 68,771,909 |
62d0af603d3da021a23e383f1dcdc653e07c8bcf | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0xefadce9bbd3c167e0aa62272b1ffe86142cd15a432c99ca815d683d244fc86e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next US Speaker be elected in one ballot? | Event: how-many-ballots-to-elect-next-speaker | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-tot-new-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bruins vs. Maple Leafs | Event: nhl-bos-... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-ast-2025-03-08 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-08? | 68,817,682 | 68,817,682 |
37cfb8a8b1ac99dea723aa94fc4a1199722b4f7c | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x81a60dfae5de6845499100131613ba31d3b06205204baa11c3d901428877ab56 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-tot-new-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bruins vs. Maple Leafs | Event: nhl-bos-tor-2025-01-04 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-ja... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-eve-2025-03-08 | Will Wolves vs. Everton end in a draw? | 68,821,565 | 68,821,565 |
4f62b36e1d5462357dcbf630771e4f475ce4e9b3 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x87ef660e2a32e65d5544e8db65e2743c33e6ba3ca5a92dcea228387e9e605792 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bruins vs. Maple Leafs | Event: nhl-bos-tor-2025-01-04 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? ... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-eve-2025-03-08 | Will Everton win on 2025-03-08? | 68,821,565 | 68,821,565 |
1f7cc1a0377f49b274cfdad6ecdf4f1114d9c739 | 0x0b69c8ab6602411463b1349bc3fbcd96c650e32a | 0x6d278d07154de8765c96a5e0c12cea5bfb31ebf52f843ad9d406bf59ead66fad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon t... | yes | 1 | donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-mar-7-14 | Will Trump post 70-79 times on Truth March 7-14? | 68,888,782 | 68,888,782 |
f378a31937e8d3164188bfd5a920e0de44cc2332 | 0x0b935e95bdf36322c14815f002d9759079a03c34 | 0x308f90fa510f7ef7319e8d9948511abdae4d47032ef1421138f20b2ec5e73f03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30?
Event: ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-by-june
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-by-june | Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30? | 58,827,167 | 58,827,167 |
1c63469d40fa64ecbc6bf30ea994f27743e90646 | 0x0b935e95bdf36322c14815f002d9759079a03c34 | 0xa3f413434b7d308752ee86c92737947b02f18ad43883afbbe3b0124fa6e46d14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30? | Event: ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-by-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
Event: republican-vp-supplemental
Predict the user's choice and confidenc... | yes | 1 | republican-vp-supplemental | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,412,800 | 59,412,800 |
ca41a1d91ab2ccef987655a485f1b70cc0ce1543 | 0x0b935e95bdf36322c14815f002d9759079a03c34 | 0x0317ed1eeb46a4f7b517925b61bbf94d8371ba45c58a0c2eb89d447e87aba711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30? | Event: ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-by-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Que... | yes | 1 | republican-vp-nominee | Will another woman win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,413,810 | 59,413,810 |
ca6d2414c1173f9eae80fb87c29efafe476d6f23 | 0x0b935e95bdf36322c14815f002d9759079a03c34 | 0xbb651bf09b0db35efe77e9323eec6f09fbd14ae8b64e118dfb12ad6aeb581682 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30? | Event: ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-by-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a... | yes | 1 | republican-vp-nominee | Will Kristi Noem win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,413,810 | 59,413,810 |
3c1db7bc673eb70f5d3e72124cd5f439ec20ffcb | 0x0b935e95bdf36322c14815f002d9759079a03c34 | 0xfee7cb9350806e31ebd3d9ed6cedb4cd4f9aa600ff556a9e072067891b0327a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30? | Event: ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-by-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a... | no | 1 | when-will-biden-drop-out | Will Biden drop out on July 21? | 59,646,270 | 59,646,270 |
8dc6af42ab5e3ce3c7d8e88b6f9b25f675075adf | 0x0b935e95bdf36322c14815f002d9759079a03c34 | 0x2ccadebe3f3a4486dd820dccec57de86307531282643824a8f8be37ea59ada2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30? | Event: ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-by-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a... | yes | 1 | when-will-biden-drop-out | Will Biden drop out on July 26? | 59,646,926 | 59,646,926 |
d34671dc2220b56b685d1b59b6f399fbe5ca6242 | 0x0b935e95bdf36322c14815f002d9759079a03c34 | 0xadd339e1d15b603c277a83bc3e7af5e9340ea2453e65f4da4fbeaf1e68ef00cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30? | Event: ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-by-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a... | yes | 1 | when-will-biden-drop-out | Will Biden drop out on July 25? | 59,646,926 | 59,646,926 |
a537061bb2903a97db64cff566183a3bc8657817 | 0x0b935e95bdf36322c14815f002d9759079a03c34 | 0x83c9f3fc9c17337e93c1004552676aa1d9e1ad4500984e162a14d46f2888c7b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30? | Event: ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-by-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a... | yes | 1 | when-will-democrats-nominate-presidential-candidate | Democrats nominate Prez candidate August 19-22? | 60,257,259 | 60,257,259 |
dbb4f37cea6724270119a7e8b9771750fc5ebf01 | 0x0b935e95bdf36322c14815f002d9759079a03c34 | 0x84f606bd4d1eb8a41215a9725ddd6e8d7cab9db962c57af2c9190ac49f6fcee7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30? | Event: ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-by-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a... | yes | 1 | when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Will Kamala announce VP pick Friday? | 60,257,259 | 60,257,259 |
e2de807f96b9b03686a9f9b78dd4a7e26e53d78a | 0x0b935e95bdf36322c14815f002d9759079a03c34 | 0x9e9071636d176562592a98dfede865385ba0cff7864cfa01f0479ca6e9e26e1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30? | Event: ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-by-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a... | no | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,257,259 | 60,257,259 |
3eb0527e4db76f8ed0ff43c8231ab05ea75daeaf | 0x0b935e95bdf36322c14815f002d9759079a03c34 | 0x56546e150010381a0b35589d2a775fc631329c07578f6b582d287323f6f364ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30? | Event: ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-by-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a... | yes | 1 | democratic-presidential-nominee | Will Michelle Obama be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | 60,296,058 | 60,296,058 |
24d6a79954ae8147968df0c2db71511197aa8009 | 0x0b935e95bdf36322c14815f002d9759079a03c34 | 0xb29b815d3c9aef7976179dde413f4059027148c0be3a8dccfd8a6c31516339db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30? | Event: ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-by-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a... | yes | 1 | democratic-presidential-nominee | Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | 60,296,058 | 60,296,058 |
271572cbf2ec26b7dd9b0d0ad933ae8dbc5915d8 | 0x0b935e95bdf36322c14815f002d9759079a03c34 | 0xd28eff5dc23bc2520042f8722add1afc39cdc9ea00650262e75a5d3bafeed06b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30? | Event: ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-by-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a... | yes | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,296,058 | 60,296,058 |
967e51191b2903ef195cb1b22bf5c07e82bfae87 | 0x0b935e95bdf36322c14815f002d9759079a03c34 | 0xdfd45cfddc493ee0277bfbbf081755a0bba1e9fb9cc41cada989efc61ef9d671 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30? | Event: ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-by-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a... | yes | 1 | democratic-presidential-nominee | Will Gretchen Whitmer be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? | 60,296,058 | 60,296,058 |
9c1c2a81ab0f50063cacb247e4284c20a8d47352 | 0x0b935e95bdf36322c14815f002d9759079a03c34 | 0xea236b37f6ba053c48240dafea9b4b745ce43aebd44d8911df35302d1ac951a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30? | Event: ceasefire-between-russia-and-ukraine-by-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-supplemental | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a... | yes | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,296,058 | 60,296,058 |
5e06ce0b8712fbdddd1e786f7053818f9cc7c9d8 | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0x44e09b4f830b164833adf1f298576e4f7044011d99d86073859ffd13fe035285 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15?
Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | 65,545,772 | 65,545,772 |
29ab1eb1ef2764deeb0a00c617451b13b81c7c28 | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0x59c8249c103cd7c5533ddc06e0423f048d39037dbf6890e29874f6974b8b9714 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14?
Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ...... | yes | 1 | epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | 65,545,772 | 65,545,772 |
473a1dc460a7dcdf3cbb2d244eb8612c1689c34e | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0x8167715c489ac94e144597c077793cea0aa45f5b107e9c4b85307fb3cea16877 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a ... | no | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | 65,545,772 | 65,545,772 |
6b38be69a1e85ade71c751e3508b0fdf724aeb94 | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0xf194cec52cb848e1448b1914a899ff7abb9c170ecc2a23aa61f0e2fda9cbb10a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | no | 1 | epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Will Southampton vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | 65,545,773 | 65,545,773 |
fa5786a417e1917381a2f6bdd544e1df3035b943 | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0x00aebfa73ed09961504a16f6c47972b2f3aad10cecac17d41952f5adfc89eaeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-wes-2024-12-16 | Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-16? | 65,599,125 | 65,599,125 |
44c9b39bbffe14174c5b5c7355d950e479b85aab | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0x3a5d8047acd8aa377956e65bd40bfafd47ff6d528559b22530fb3822bc1afbbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting? | 65,682,438 | 65,682,438 |
b77bfcb52b9c78c6233172a7721475499f753dbd | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0xb685671ec5f12410f48006fad1ec60fa1a1e19f3a5ba09a81ab45b026821252d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2024 meeting? | 65,682,438 | 65,682,438 |
5da9bd85a2365a1be68d551f3d39a63992ee98b5 | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0x69fba444b24e6987a4447bad066314ea69521a4692c5e02685e009c379f514b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-new-2024-12-21 | Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-21? | 65,785,251 | 65,785,251 |
431d082edf1f4445a09c9e91c24d165eaf451434 | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0x8c6ceecb9cbe639931134510528ae328bae4b39b9d699c8d7e855139a99608c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-ars-2024-12-21 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-21? | 65,785,251 | 65,785,251 |
efd248666cdc3f50e374ac4fb42eaf523c1f2dd7 | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0xa2610270667f42e7f7c006a28d6cfa01ac9e0214c481df706560cb6dc0de9c25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-mac-2024-12-21 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-21? | 65,785,251 | 65,785,251 |
148524eece360fefdda6fdc37f9a7b0e41aaa7b9 | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0x0322883fc9a40a02562b3022628b10616a3219ce0196612303834e785bcec354 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? | 65,824,673 | 65,824,673 |
90fcb6f378a341901341e2ad4a20174b4dce497b | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0x790f4b801395e2238c6d8563d1c0465f273954f4924718c3e80678642ba46b31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | 65,824,673 | 65,824,673 |
5a32a5d0592c82fd76953b9f7d1cf99e1b9d77ac | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0x8ced2b173d5db67df23850d8b04e2c67b931dd8dc4498d5b11f38a4b26e6239e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-wol-2024-12-22 | Will Leicester win on 2024-12-22? | 65,824,673 | 65,824,673 |
bc904cd33ffa21abc377c8e37837e73462a2eeb0 | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0xa007f6c22fa1cf1c54ccb0a485e4b168dc7df63a7ecbab195ac0763712f37adc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | 65,824,673 | 65,824,673 |
ec07d0b1cec3e0262cfd4bc7a8ada18f7579632a | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0x220945943304042c4cc4a68fad935f07f17f104437fa1e137e8c91a4ee8a7c49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-che-ful-2024-12-26 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-26? | 65,984,698 | 65,984,698 |
2053f18c4312777319d8bee598bdd3ca66a71bf9 | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0x5d6af2454c799de67232dcd3e06ba217fe49424e2cfbe67a7b5ca31779e20247 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-eve-2024-12-26 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-26? | 65,984,698 | 65,984,698 |
c3bedd01f00dc7af52c334725bc27d56dffa859e | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0xe11dc5c6006cf0b449ee63e2fb656eda08e790b86b137748d006bb1dd3b4fd17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-not-tot-2024-12-26 | Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-26? | 65,984,698 | 65,984,698 |
87a338bb17f5c9a28b1e7e4724acd6ac4792d071 | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0x67c1b75228b1b28cfdc6856033a19d3a43e74d88c6b6fa33263e9a1191a9c310 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-ips-2024-12-27 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-27? | 66,024,388 | 66,024,388 |
a5079a56529b2b5fd2a9edaa2b0abda817e82774 | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0xa776a7c2556d6af1e1cb825ed27e4db012b12964778c0aec99215aaaff7480e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-ars-2025-01-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-01? | 66,213,863 | 66,213,863 |
d0c1f5cdbcf2dcbdd17ff9e7c6fb72de73131338 | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0xa23fde75349cd2ef1d57de351466c3fd15fd197b440c3461963cb9d44f8fde01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-06? | 66,402,073 | 66,402,073 |
f1984253113c43e067c9f28ec7b1257ec4ea1be3 | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0x3b6f9935ca0abb591f1184b390ca1df2ca71d6a8946ad9d7dcb255d7cdf12795 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-mac-2025-01-14 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-14? | 66,712,921 | 66,712,921 |
3ff0c5631c3e8138e5241a5193064dd81a5e52a7 | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0x4a2c8997fb1b4e516c4f6ae9f28cca95ae71087a1460dce8a0f940026ac00334 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-new-wol-2025-01-15 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-15? | 66,759,280 | 66,759,280 |
a200aab2f042811945594b0ce18e5afce84ff5be | 0x0b9abae9e725d5b0a00715dbbaf4b0b5289a5034 | 0x540823c537d86540cef8865f7d0e41335ff1fa81f6b58c4e977047ba175f1cd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-sou-2025-01-16 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-16? | 66,802,920 | 66,802,920 |
dba9e7c767333ad15c1e62730c49aa51b49ce9ad | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x1fed2030b0e447f215584b9d370a049d9a19b11bab66c96a34d3a6f896b7d4c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX?
Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | chiefs | 0.021459 | which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | 67,599,872 | 67,599,872 |
44932f824d176a274d28d26c58d0ab1b71b35d44 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x77478299b15435e1bcfedde3af4e1aa181d0d0b1f12bf3ad20fc6816714b7564 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
Target market:
Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup?
Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024
Pr... | no | 1 | carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | 67,632,434 | 67,632,434 |
58a11cc89ec9c17683501def303492ba6947cf9a | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x8ab159e3abe3e4155ae6eaa13a771981844931604a66870277bdbd8249e9acaa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-7 | Will the highest temperature in London be 35°F or below on February 7? | 67,632,434 | 67,632,434 |
4438973fd09492d6599593681fbf28e9f3b8b686 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xb42dc86f558eb1f8aae8617ef6a14bd24b72ab6afa48cebd59bda15b3a4244ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-7 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 36-37°F on February 7? | 67,632,434 | 67,632,434 |
91a5945669df3f1c3e1f71c4e47e71d0b7760b10 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x78592d8b52a4bc6b78fe127020aecdb89808b74a242e095c862187b59edbe3bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-6 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 6? | 67,677,434 | 67,677,434 |
a3f621f868455d48f58d7e73ce55be3f17ccf3d1 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x8cb1c896413880ab06c239f9ba7e1a29c428e20e8fd67477ddeca8fdfc317e70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-7 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 35°F or below on February 7? | 67,677,434 | 67,677,434 |
8e4f108e91b552d00033651315ee54650432a383 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x3229bc63a5d91fb39901f50030ba754f6bb985a1970101163e54f09f9c3c26be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | over | 0 | recieving-yardage-props-super-bowl-lix | Will DeVonta Smith record 51 or more receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX? | 67,731,203 | 67,731,203 |
ba97c78ab655b9f99e7a3cafa72cdf77e0847380 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x4d58f045fcc1195a1ad010074cc550de73f7046ecf7cea35e7d6dc3870d5b61a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | over | 0 | recieving-yardage-props-super-bowl-lix | Will Dallas Goedert record 52 or more receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX? | 67,731,203 | 67,731,203 |
2b8f863f01325ed35b19a35bdfd235d19c1f267f | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x6e2d7849c0bc1dd94a7fb2507345fe28d9a0fc14c8e34576725e72611f56f448 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | over | 0 | recieving-yardage-props-super-bowl-lix | Will Travis Kelce record 64 or more receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX? | 67,733,038 | 67,733,038 |
1c213abcf3aa6e28569c04913262dd4c23efb404 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xe69c7d8a0961c2eb412924e3c2f1ac29d33359ba4a0f84f642807ec8486e79ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 0 | penalty-props-super-bowl-lix | Will the Eagles commit a roughing the passer penalty in Super Bowl LIX? | 67,736,172 | 67,755,129 |
c0507186f0552b65ad11d6f48fab1ef2acda39be | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x565a925916b2d230369dc8c0e6d96d5ef17e74fd2503479d660e358910b94d0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | how-long-will-super-bowl-national-anthem-performance-be | Will the Super Bowl national anthem last more than 150 seconds? | 67,747,852 | 67,747,852 |
49f39889bc09cf7301d534a8f2d84b11c8173041 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x86eb8304342807099791ce359f6bb91c1414ed410ea8441c8bfe99fc23c0a1dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | super-bowl-lix-first-touchdown-scorer | Will Jahan Dotson score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX? | 67,747,852 | 67,747,852 |
a84dae4b756ea0988086a7589bfb74777351a418 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xa176bed953947a8477f66861856956632dcdf247f54a4c0e639cb195c9e88ce3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | over | 1 | super-bowl-lix-eagles-team-totals | Will the Eagles score 31 or more points in Super Bowl LIX? | 67,747,852 | 67,747,852 |
541895e87cea2aca8de38bfc5b0e2a643d2ecb2a | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xcebc2102d6be642ca40a7ae3807ccd1dbbc719bf20e5aeffb7497881a0f46694 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | yes | 1 | first-score-method-super-bowl-lix | Will the first score of Super Bowl LIX be a touchdown? | 67,747,852 | 67,747,852 |
6b4fa6fa2c1522908483290b6fa9da8c819f8fc4 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xf65686ab2dd3f36cf3476225a8ae606bd6300afe6de14581ddcea7c92b66bed8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | first-score-method-super-bowl-lix | Will Super Bowl LIX get delayed past February 28th or canceled? | 67,747,881 | 67,747,881 |
d2c84f1eee1cb96d0a378e247b2aefa450884031 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xbc88d7663ab4555c2a32cc2380c11b6c73f24a49ae7b4b411fd5d19c867a6bf9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | yes | 1 | super-bowl-lix-first-touchdown-scorer | Will Travis Kelce score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX? | 67,747,956 | 67,747,956 |
9e87a5ef25cde30daeb4fdb11f6df0c86268af9c | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x06d753dca06824f4af826e23f85f6fed1484d504ce301045fa26434c63e4f922 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | kicking-props-super-bowl-lix | Will there be a missed extra point attempt in Super Bowl LIX? | 67,749,645 | 67,749,645 |
f3379e370e8c450dba6eaff56efbd7f1d1393a9c | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x7417e66317a150f60d5fa21d70130ea6a49e82fd537defa756dd5741b70cdd64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | super-bowl-lix-margin-of-victory | Will the Eagles win Super Bowl LIX by 10-12 points? | 67,750,869 | 67,750,869 |
949e3a8032f842c6b2c6d2decf70f76c82ed9880 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xfff93d289ea6a004674c4153f29b175287754d18030d7d8eb90f6b7bee5d3c0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | superbowl-lix-exact-outcome | Will the Chiefs beat the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX? | 67,750,869 | 67,750,869 |
ca3e31be899a8e90d45deab8c7c7f9baad0559d9 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x399b3e538eae06db62ba0e166cf3772276dabf75862c938119d17d59684c7e40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? | 67,755,129 | 67,755,129 |
368af92d754decb99273f3f497466666c83a458d | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xb3c8ef0753ce0c65c4f3cfcb862e69b76fd5f1bc0c508e8284dda27911281018 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | gatorade-shower-color-super-box-lix | Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LIX be purple? | 67,755,129 | 67,755,129 |
29db37dc2252ab8faf744b682ac88f524b59b8c9 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xcd14a0b8d67206ebf320c3e7754c5a1db352c4b163a90c2d6c598024e465a2b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? | 67,755,129 | 67,755,129 |
5667b58ea2142b178636c27d38570845c8cdc941 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x56076dc8839569ac666199597f7da15354a477eb6557b27b390e412c7639cccb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | next-saints-head-coach-24-25 | Will the Saints hire Mike McCarthy as their next head coach? | 67,817,472 | 67,817,472 |
59094e442070aaf8abe305f87164a3b2349e8ea9 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xa8f8b83ea9ea072dc4c71215d67b4d4d32f480f528d691fdb672811117ba0a84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | how-many-people-will-watch-super-bowl-lix | Will 135 million or more people watch Super Bowl LIX? | 67,817,472 | 67,817,472 |
5830ff76e08bc2a9f821e91381dad09fd22df009 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x0dce8810cfe47e4273c00530a508364393cc4252636bbfa77244e2aab807e8bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? | 75,614,391 | 75,614,391 |
61825b5e2167b2718260041c015048ae0c92bfd3 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x35749b356cf3800907db61809e700033fc42f43a9a00ff3608f3375eab7298d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | f1-drivers-champion | Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | 76,227,347 | 76,227,347 |
ab9fa590bb27628b13af27a202bbedc6bc419907 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x56e8cd19951bf3f7fb74866ba579db274ebbb11ccadcaed40cf45c028e403b9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | f1-drivers-champion | Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | 76,227,347 | 76,227,347 |
f0aa2a13dd76555af261fcd6e0b414ee46a4d011 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x74d8d8574ad92f4967df8f1189dc160d48c59ef1923ab3599dcd4678b341ca24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | f1-drivers-champion-2nd-place | Will Fernando Alonso finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | 76,227,347 | 76,227,347 |
1f53676fad2f066f2d1bb55da8a427931a500da4 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x9939fd74f2d2078cafd04de7a9a8060b27ff331f8db4a737121519b81440de1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | f1-drivers-champion | Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | 76,227,347 | 76,227,347 |
5088a238d821b42ab846f16d34afe43263e2375d | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x9cf7ca2ab303017fd3169f7ce40357ea6b46672dbb79935ba3e0a0c893b96f03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | f1-drivers-champion | Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | 76,227,347 | 76,227,347 |
c7984f7524208358662edd6bcf2fbb3c465b105e | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xc6f68257d5f6a66591f4318cd3e88e2425c0fd7b7cf40ed09b7198e467bea4de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles lead the Chiefs after the third quarter of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: which-team-will-lead-after-each-quarter-super-bowl-lix | Choice: chiefs | Confidence: 0.02145922746781116
2. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | f1-drivers-champion-2nd-place | Will Yuki Tsunoda finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | 76,227,347 | 76,227,347 |
861efdd5cec4b0f1212a44aa2df033f4545b2e6f | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xc8d259de7c552a4d0caec28989453da710a53811cb1d16965f6d4f8ecd843be1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 35°F or below on February 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | f1-drivers-champion-2nd-place | Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | 76,227,347 | 76,227,347 |
e3fddb7c0b15a3c5f81542684b473cd9a364d763 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x7a03229d1da2bcb4df5da69ee4a9eec6d20b6e29224b4173c5788f5d9de6b64e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 35°F or below on February 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 36-37°F on February 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-7... | no | 1 | fantasy-football-wr-points-leader-week-1 | Will Khalil Shakir record the most fantasy points in Week 1? | 76,256,261 | 76,256,261 |
5217c11ae65f0fea08c269fc480007e8bac902fb | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xcc0a4322e838ddfa4f0999398891f20698c2cf60c74543afa77bba10163c6bf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 36-37°F on February 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-6 | Choice... | no | 1 | fantasy-football-wr-points-leader-week-1 | Will Keon Coleman record the most fantasy points in Week 1? | 76,256,261 | 76,256,261 |
72e326829d889be0ce66b45557638f6ae243c0b2 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x2067340af0e017da36a5265513733622b8a9b9980d4090d319aa6f70a46b363b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 35°F or below on February 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-7 | Choice: yes | Conf... | no | 1 | wnba-rebounds-leader-412 | Will Kayla Thornton lead the WNBA in rebounds per game this season? | 76,353,551 | 76,353,551 |
115b2097795719854e1a11ad19f3002bcefec730 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x4aba3b50a944a0421a769e07b073b735ac8122e8604babe20a1433a3cdec9970 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 35°F or below on February 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DeVonta Smith record 51 or more receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX? | Event: recieving-yardage-props-super-bowl-lix | Choice: over ... | no | 1 | wnba-rebounds-leader-412 | Will Satou Sabally lead the WNBA in rebounds per game this season? | 76,353,551 | 76,353,551 |
5f163189972fb0669dd47f4e86e0b52424e92a02 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x6c8831e59eb8d911ed37fa863df301f98736a6d2bfd214010989c356dae3ae10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will DeVonta Smith record 51 or more receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX? | Event: recieving-yardage-props-super-bowl-lix | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Dallas Goedert record 52 or more receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX? | Event: recieving-yardage-props-super-bowl-lix | Choi... | no | 1 | wnba-rebounds-leader-412 | Will Dearica Hamby lead the WNBA in rebounds per game this season? | 76,353,551 | 76,353,551 |
359c35e1cfe8df00888905861cd6506376669607 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0x6ce783e477ce7b490c76d3b1ae1a740df05bf128154a2c132bc306524ed68a3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Goedert record 52 or more receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX? | Event: recieving-yardage-props-super-bowl-lix | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Travis Kelce record 64 or more receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX? | Event: recieving-yardage-props-super-bowl-lix | Choic... | no | 1 | wnba-rebounds-leader-412 | Will Alyssa Thomas lead the WNBA in rebounds per game this season? | 76,353,551 | 76,353,551 |
7703459aabb142d9288af60f6447edd195231eda | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xb76580e7e3e73a1054ef4b1101c4c4eadcdb4dbdd73db00b0553ca1b76dbdefb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Travis Kelce record 64 or more receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX? | Event: recieving-yardage-props-super-bowl-lix | Choice: over | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Eagles commit a roughing the passer penalty in Super Bowl LIX? | Event: penalty-props-super-bowl-lix | Choice: no | Con... | no | 1 | wnba-rebounds-leader-412 | Will Napheesa Collier lead the WNBA in rebounds per game this season? | 76,353,551 | 76,353,551 |
f305768fd0abf68cb0108b977b97a300591f2b77 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xc76030c9ef640ff36a1b6d35032e4970c8fa03e0ba5549a1e3556775c2045d79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles commit a roughing the passer penalty in Super Bowl LIX? | Event: penalty-props-super-bowl-lix | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Super Bowl national anthem last more than 150 seconds? | Event: how-long-will-super-bowl-national-anthem-performance-be | Choice: ... | no | 1 | wnba-rebounds-leader-412 | Will Brionna Jones lead the WNBA in rebounds per game this season? | 76,353,551 | 76,353,551 |
13851d64447705c5ab4f46001bec12f6b5c02cd3 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xca2cf4b14a3a7114c78b0402b9ea55b5957038a48e1cfa31a2d1a9693b68c10b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Super Bowl national anthem last more than 150 seconds? | Event: how-long-will-super-bowl-national-anthem-performance-be | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jahan Dotson score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: super-bowl-lix-first-touchdown-scorer | Choice: ... | no | 1 | wnba-rebounds-leader-412 | Will Aliyah Boston lead the WNBA in rebounds per game this season? | 76,353,551 | 76,353,551 |
dd01de1f529bc1e574e527b1e8d9df9420ce842c | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xd34d970546d43f3c795086b34546c755c005a6362416060d0f1e56cb71b36eaa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jahan Dotson score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: super-bowl-lix-first-touchdown-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Eagles score 31 or more points in Super Bowl LIX? | Event: super-bowl-lix-eagles-team-totals | Choice: over | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | wnba-rebounds-leader-412 | Will Nneka Ogwumike lead the WNBA in rebounds per game this season? | 76,353,551 | 76,353,551 |
23a2ba7f225bfae0bed7e76ea27858051033ca49 | 0x0b9cae2b0dfe7a71c413e0604eaac1c352f87e44 | 0xd3a16e7a5f5397220573a601739eecb8d2dabe561df2d6ace52b118dda8ace95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles score 31 or more points in Super Bowl LIX? | Event: super-bowl-lix-eagles-team-totals | Choice: over | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the first score of Super Bowl LIX be a touchdown? | Event: first-score-method-super-bowl-lix | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 1 | wnba-rebounds-leader-412 | Will Azura Stevens lead the WNBA in rebounds per game this season? | 76,353,551 | 76,353,551 |
ef2526993ee6ed2bcb24d50fe5680c94401381f2 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x790f4b801395e2238c6d8563d1c0465f273954f4924718c3e80678642ba46b31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22?
Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | 66,065,269 | 66,065,269 |
726562681352c2cce9a8fedf30966ce718e2bd7c | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0xa007f6c22fa1cf1c54ccb0a485e4b168dc7df63a7ecbab195ac0763712f37adc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22?
Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confiden... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | 66,065,269 | 66,065,269 |
7c936feb263754b70ae55aa134b259eea05a0e87 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x1486e6929eafafb6ade27bc0e7ac375d5607751c8fe9053f4e3a0f14135239d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29?
Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29
P... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | 66,106,230 | 66,106,230 |
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