sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
139ba7ba481f8fb12ffd8eeee0e142110e66830f | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x1572cb62fb20b82ab035fd88d168b4d0dcffb9438031ab90eb4d60576b71f4c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-sou-2024-12-29 | Will Crystal Palace vs. Southampton end in a draw? | 66,106,230 | 66,106,230 |
d2627c093d458f79294841a6612d5d9f9f3a5a8e | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x8b32f12e9d1ed37d7e744ef843c3b0c479e7a0ead85982611e6a1e489685df2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-not-2024-12-29 | Will Everton win on 2024-12-29? | 66,106,230 | 66,106,230 |
bbb4566f9f9378bbaea18927c0404f60a79c5653 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x2aa6accd8d404083e42554dc9d7606ebf2d39d36eabe9dcff3fef01d506fd7b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-his-independence-day-remarks-on-july-4 | Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks? | 73,526,439 | 73,526,439 |
75fdfb98ae6b19c445cecf6d63b13dd7eb6cd8bb | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x3eb1335226a35ea4681f0fbd476da86f9ffd7b5e90d186fd82e072ede45dbbcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | imo-2025-winner-country | Will China win the 2025 International Math Olympiad? | 74,144,997 | 74,144,997 |
8f41da851e18de1fdf0809a8211106f5335a37f2 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x10b6c1fb830e0b8a1b05a7c45ed8232cdc129a197522036c70fbe3774b17c55b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | no | 1 | uefa-womens-euro-2025-winner | Will Spain win the UEFA Women's Euro? | 74,499,375 | 74,499,375 |
2df2806e9870940903b471d7823320d33d2c097f | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x3f20af336afe23ad65a5ee2559c7f98aeb1b8431f8f29bda80802360cc763c06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | uefa-womens-euro-2025-winner | Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? | 74,499,375 | 74,499,375 |
ddccfc73bf63af0c3f122a8b1576653632fdbc7b | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x8d54219ef43b4a2ba1904ba6155786263d1e3005dcd6bac978d28e3ada2aa489 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-july | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | 74,652,167 | 74,652,167 |
a77fda07c7943f808bb27f90192e2cdcc8e8eec3 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0xa8c893360fb69cc6261bcb142b05055689a9c2329f6e3bf3a54932c2ab1ead01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | 74,652,167 | 74,652,167 |
fd8177c75312556a81022fad0347edd2d8bcab8f | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0xfb7bae825f9775e78561ea41fca3b56d47dba45c975a706158a518396343de6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next | Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? | 75,258,449 | 75,258,449 |
55c7071630df8a29364071af7149f20b06ba6f5f | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0xf174491ff042ddaf0be75036ad5ba1899b35a4c8fe3146a75752f5da0d6193b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | wlfi-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | WLFI market cap (FDV) >$16B one day after launch? | 75,985,714 | 75,985,714 |
e84c5f4a2e1f9b413f0d499a2c53bd212d6c7064 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0xdcf2b4dd27cbf8374209e46a0d7726359e29c237c77eeb2d03845ea7702510b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | no | 1 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-september-15 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? | 76,511,689 | 76,511,689 |
17d6e5866f5d279033b9ac0e06484733245b3f0c | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x01eb1e2a8e3a1ee7d913d6f705f9ff324bab2fcf09de3de5378039fceedae951 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 0.701626 | hyperliquid-hype-hits-100-this-year | Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 before 2026? | 76,795,141 | 76,795,141 |
922339a4397cf5d0cc42aeb346d01b82a456a7cb | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x1e1ec8877ef12158ebdcad27ee4639121ac84031379b0b97538fcd5d9f7d80b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | 77,120,959 | 77,120,959 |
3c2e04e4da9a7a7846491f6343a239e68b737e07 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x46901f36cfc520897f7c0a6d416fba4a7b8bc01a76d0d2af97944ebfbbdae19f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-september | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | 77,120,959 | 77,120,959 |
e28fc1b1eeacbd196624eea2d26aa6a5ea2118d0 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x4755fe9c96092fd0666c1e321129fe508b16a6d7a743947692335b2cced8b6b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | down | 1 | nvda-up-or-down-on-october-15-2025 | NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - October 15 | 77,749,200 | 77,749,200 |
07afab548cd562d5db8614f8d3364ba5cff48aba | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x5497e579644fa4124985c39c67c4e06f0a02174925c3b7b7a05fdef6dff8d62e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-october-716 | Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? | 78,428,159 | 78,428,159 |
5beedde72962a02dde12c539f1e5b0c1509af18a | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x5f378adb0bcd8bb569af3ec52e1e87ccd6242de27ec205d220b9369ac2a13fc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-october | Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? | 78,428,159 | 78,428,159 |
f109bcac1baf0f8164d8a87aa000c6fbf965c764 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x4e2eceaa644d438281d2dd7cafa204581ef4ebc62fba2879e1e41971098c6ad0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | no | 1 | nof1ai-ai-trading-competition-winner | Will Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet win the NOF1.ai competition? | 78,562,194 | 78,562,194 |
465e25587d703f7ecf85693450b8b500daabff40 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x0e28f48791e54a71b1de3724820fe99c782a5fcabdcaf22e3c051cb66cc9dc9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | bun-uni-bay-2025-11-08 | Will Union Berlin vs. Bayern München end in a draw? | 78,773,091 | 78,773,091 |
d37c03bccfc43c448e2c7e1c5c58ee593fcebc4b | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x39394f14d9027e76034a5d662fb3a453391b6f121112c22e4606fe27bb67a917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | bun-hsv-dor-2025-11-08 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? | 78,773,113 | 78,773,113 |
6547b4b6528187dfed68ff2da785bfada46e7ced | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x1b81b55515cfd8ea84d6259f2871faa02e714233928d3e55b60b28d31ded49c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-new-2025-11-09 | Will Brentford win on 2025-11-09? | 78,818,238 | 78,818,238 |
303f8c023232613057f66542b8f1e752892f5587 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x8c5e32128a97bde70fd921ac86fef05b19e4a383683ce25b89cb258368d1ca24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | fif-jpn-bol-2025-11-18 | Will Japan win on 2025-11-18? | 79,187,132 | 79,187,132 |
ace301e6078cb4ccd6676237022f4b8f6d708ab7 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0xcb42ce799c32e8f0bbe7df6a20396a7ecb1ca494316c5df0027ab89d941e1ca7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | 79,203,272 | 79,203,272 |
7f0e8e2caf0e0b3d90292be8d7d4baab18844514 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0xfed976a8465df16ff0aeb9dbf2638eaee9de4f082b2b861cbb023814eaf138fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | uef-bel-lie-2025-11-18 | Will Belgium win on 2025-11-18? | 79,205,238 | 79,205,238 |
430fd0e6a96e71c6274ef5bd46ecaafcd1fc963d | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0xe750299495394f27e37ef59b9574fb3f69d1ff420b6d59972ff470009ea72745 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | no | 0 | which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-november | Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025? | 79,274,298 | 79,274,298 |
bc913fcd263517edc97d8228e0310a153fab7a54 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x3b2c84cf671fff6c7034dcde6ef021a804517e19d47322ca04ea57b2e43195e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | sea-laz-lec-2025-11-23 | Will SS Lazio win on 2025-11-23? | 79,421,759 | 79,421,759 |
35da1affc786f24ae4e6f6dc0de2d36619b1fa39 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x116913dcd4007e1d35441067b496299652e5febaece38b0974ccfd8c4f2e3c04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | epl-lee-ast-2025-11-23 | Will Leeds United vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | 79,421,796 | 79,421,796 |
70764dd997195435ffe26b476394ecef2ecf1f03 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x6a82c0fde448e4d3eaaa34f5c19226a37875b01a47a01e3f0e5d38b8c779e4a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | fl1-aja-lyo-2025-11-23 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-11-23? | 79,421,796 | 79,421,796 |
b172aac2654f71a584209e9b6ae34440af3d4f8e | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x06d86b8352126c262d03ccf4bef36cf13b32605d0c36606976eb16cc8ff6f802 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Southampton end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-sou-2024... | no | 0 | who-will-replace-musk-as-tesla-ceo | Will no CEO be announced in 2025? | 79,432,235 | 79,481,033 |
5c33b3fe0632b9df9b7026936641447511365417 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x0750391868f44220a8a64d6a3d3907a7e376e311800d2656ca636ef9d912678f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Southampton end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-sou-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-eve-not-2024... | yes | 1 | sea-sas-pis-2025-11-24 | Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? | 79,463,831 | 79,463,831 |
b97e7c3fac76d5529f85a59d4a72010604e988e4 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x453e4ddc64b63dfca45d6834535250ff09bedbcf910669138dc489560630a957 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Southampton end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-sou-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-eve-not-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July... | yes | 1 | sea-tor-com-2025-11-24 | Will Torino FC vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? | 79,466,022 | 79,466,022 |
c2670f2bdca472a6a34c7af295799ba59a112cd9 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x548f46c2cb063e476aa012ed3bbd6e038785387965d0f38500989a2d67bda061 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-eve-not-2024-12-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-his-independence-day-remarks-on-july-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | lal-esp-sev-2025-11-24 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? | 79,466,022 | 79,466,022 |
08117c9943284d911916679e887defd130cde5f1 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x55a10130f3e6c980e2a179b74f344da2bc0cb53f358899c6eb660b97c27668fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-his-independence-day-remarks-on-july-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will China win the 2025 International Math Olympiad? | Event: imo-2025-winner-country | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | ucl-aja-ben-2025-11-25 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-25? | 79,507,797 | 79,507,797 |
2738811e449c0d66f4378d604350fd509ff6c674 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0xacba346309f9358b32b9e39cc80942726fbef18f205ee29eb42ff36a5a19a8a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will China win the 2025 International Math Olympiad? | Event: imo-2025-winner-country | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain win the UEFA Women's Euro? | Event: uefa-womens-euro-2025-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? | ... | yes | 1 | ucl-bvb-vil1-2025-11-25 | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-25? | 79,507,797 | 79,507,797 |
be587a4d0d842a0f0b7f2c77c7feef0dc9e50b79 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0xf0b9d32c86599df667e29e71683636f6a03936af34aef8233af005f759e490a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win the UEFA Women's Euro? | Event: uefa-womens-euro-2025-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? | Event: uefa-womens-euro-2025-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by... | yes | 1 | ucl-olm1-new-2025-11-25 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-25? | 79,507,797 | 79,507,797 |
fce07913daabb4b27b19b8e9f47d7475273a5b3e | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x06cec9b247306fb55e6bda05f6ff7ae0a1a6e36e974f6d136371fbd91268d388 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win the UEFA Women's Euro? | Event: uefa-womens-euro-2025-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Google ha... | yes | 1 | ucl-bog-juv-2025-11-25 | Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? | 79,507,880 | 79,507,880 |
95cc6e5c126e80fe108c0974bfd0d5d94cf3202c | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x386f1ea67671de2ad5ae35898f7fcad6f399e6869f1b537b8bd44cd41aa3ce7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | ucl-slp1-ath1-2025-11-25 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-25? | 79,507,880 | 79,507,880 |
5d31ba31175a25c84da646343a77eaddeca0a059 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x6159be269f88be1f567a85a7087dacbb77c40532e29682c5b8f1304837e7b705 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? | Event: where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: WLFI market cap (FDV... | no | 1 | ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25? | 79,507,880 | 79,507,880 |
f2e0acfb89eaa5bffc1a0668908fc3ea42a62ea4 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0xc8380243406c2e64f74f1f8fbe3575d904c927ebc4720cc4a6222da396c1f0b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? | Event: where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: WLFI market cap (FDV) >$16B one day after launch? | Event: wlfi-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Israel x Hamas ceas... | no | 1 | ucl-cfc-fcb1-2025-11-25 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-25? | 79,507,880 | 79,507,880 |
b7a376c7e1f435ee73052477082dbfc4acc5d593 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0xe2a4e3a627685cf33e917e3eff4dac2fad6c0ff4a9ecd940ab4b0fcfea47e362 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: WLFI market cap (FDV) >$16B one day after launch? | Event: wlfi-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? | Event: israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hyperli... | yes | 1 | ucl-gal-usg-2025-11-25 | Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-25? | 79,507,880 | 79,507,880 |
01c9a7e43251ab54bee1d46b136ebd55135dfc74 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0xaf5cd006798b78d39adccec2252bafe61fcf303e39c8074a45e906b3e0a2ecfc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? | Event: israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-september-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 before 2026? | Event: hyperliquid-hype-hits-100-this-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7016264815413836
3. Question: Will Google... | no | 1 | ucl-liv-psv-2025-11-26 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-26? | 79,550,907 | 79,550,907 |
466f5993a06bbe5625b5526ba363e7eca987bb13 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x881ff9b92b7d9b4506307c1fcb49c9caba79d806fcbeb16a6796d455532380d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 before 2026? | Event: hyperliquid-hype-hits-100-this-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7016264815413836
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | ucl-ars1-bay1-2025-11-26 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? | 79,550,931 | 79,550,931 |
63875b088dbe626dd8a9da819d12d8d87d74b67e | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0xb3cf772795fce29b222e8efb5869e3eb7ce9b27d72912b0ce7046af8ebf551f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | Event: which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | ucl-fra1-ata1-2025-11-26 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-26? | 79,550,931 | 79,550,931 |
9a95618691c5543e3d6671e09bd12a24e13beb64 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x36a5d28b2e3454f03520a703ae9ed37c241045956b19caf32a42adcec2d66f77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | Event: which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - October 15 | Event: nvda-up-or-down-on-october-15-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will NVIDIA ... | yes | 1 | uel-por1-ogc-2025-11-27 | Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-27? | 79,594,600 | 79,594,600 |
9444fb2b5614275b92785a2334ab8ba07ce8b2e2 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x4216d22d6815233ce34d0bec655ba25b9a151bbe55add7d504412332d217d0e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - October 15 | Event: nvda-up-or-down-on-october-15-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-october-716 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Google have the... | no | 1 | uel-fen1-ftc-2025-11-27 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-27? | 79,594,600 | 79,594,600 |
75f39b1efce138a6380e4f91436683435270c770 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x5770e142af27f78b0327d6b5aff440082b09440c489ce5f013e7f1169c270db2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-october-716 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | uel-not-mal2-2025-11-27 | Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-11-27? | 79,594,600 | 79,594,600 |
601ee08c49d26474529c986783c288ac21cf3e32 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x677c5ac9eda2910326abde9bc715c6aaec3b186df8f040fe4b2da4e3aa3f9654 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-october | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet win the NOF1.ai competition? | Event: nof1ai-ai-trading-competition-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | uel-plz1-scf-2025-11-27 | Will FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? | 79,594,600 | 79,594,600 |
3cde684c63803c3dbc087916373c987ef76ede19 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x0109370284adec7739ee55fffa53653f8558f5788b3db70b77fbd7df96295ced | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet win the NOF1.ai competition? | Event: nof1ai-ai-trading-competition-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union Berlin vs. Bayern München end in a draw? | Event: bun-uni-bay-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borus... | yes | 1 | uel-ran1-scb-2025-11-27 | Will SC Braga win on 2025-11-27? | 79,594,641 | 79,594,641 |
08afabf724a8f6289f8edea2a7c7f89e0004ccd7 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0xcf27f8cfc0613c4043f1135492f3f79be258bbf2ff6f1165b9b6218938b19799 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Union Berlin vs. Bayern München end in a draw? | Event: bun-uni-bay-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? | Event: bun-hsv-dor-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-11-09? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | uel-pao1-bra-2025-11-27 | Will PAOK win on 2025-11-27? | 79,594,641 | 79,594,641 |
970f66912e45f1f156276ad5f154092fb4daf131 | 0x0ba48740fd20f960e3e030a0026eae91453ac08b | 0x3527dd3e24e2d712c148d2f23286369d52704557e6a8df3312f934cbe772b102 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? | Event: bun-hsv-dor-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-11-09? | Event: epl-bre-new-2025-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Japan win on 2025-11-18? | Event: fif-jpn-bol-2025-11-18 |... | no | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-28 | Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28? | 79,639,096 | 79,639,096 |
dca702b485ea5d385be7eafded4fa9bc532590b8 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x1e51438708ee0136eaeb0139b38eea8e4a37fc2b6ab021897d50f4c6f11c6057 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times?
Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | 57,107,603 | 57,107,603 |
7b108c551eda36790a58b5c8449aca014147ad8f | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xa4849ee1978d9697992da8b3399b863104ea9b7d3ebade93e813afca588749bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1?
Event: series-outcome-nba-final
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. ... | yes | 1 | series-outcome-nba-final | Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | 58,623,029 | 58,623,029 |
33baa47790014ce3800455f7080a44fef98b5b74 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xc5e7517d0cfd8d18d040fed6794083feba3b7de7032c233f17459b7e6af17bd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Belgium win?
... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-ukraine-vs-belgium | Will Belgium win? | 58,658,494 | 58,658,494 |
0054598f18e9e057ef00c59ea3fab4e25204ad57 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x4f5e759558938dea7d5c950bb02e6af1299a0794c7dce6fa80590e99a6211253 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | next-president-of-iran | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf be the next President of Iran? | 59,104,907 | 59,104,907 |
70ff47e4e5b345ba6ecf3c066ce62dd3b6280a47 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x678acf697c2fc5c9e8a08fd21246fe51bf63530dc680037e118212f7691ea887 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-winner | Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? | 59,387,160 | 59,387,160 |
6c712c4534bdd9f63a377d7d56bc22956ac02847 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x2d606a51f902a4d934a4b810dd77cb28bb8e40268f42354057b5a47f9799efad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,572,086 | 60,572,086 |
2e170e6e50f4713e2aefe6aa2f8cc4c8c07db35d | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xd6f4c41fd20b8c6d5b48d528ead981d8fdf3da99d05018443e2d5bc60085e3dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,572,086 | 60,572,086 |
b8c377ca61bc0cee3d5fb934cf36bd79781c6e86 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x01876ed8ee02399812dc73f8ee9682dd787eb9a53972b4ebaa6f09ca7eee5045 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-bou-2024-10-26 | Will Villa win on 2024-10-26? | 63,944,808 | 63,944,808 |
eb5392aef64954ec63960b3a7dca05b352118389 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x48a7fe18d31f197e35ecb58a1bcd26b6b448c7ac854e74d5b8955ee012bb8bc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | ucl-mon-ben-2025-02-12 | Will Benfica win on 2025-02-12? | 67,862,458 | 67,862,458 |
4627b908b99009ebee4d15eea87ec6fc270a5c50 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x6c2c6409b9e2d404bd0587da392b68d5a60e5631c847badebc2eacd49df14e4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-wes-2025-02-22 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-22? | 68,837,514 | 68,837,514 |
de33a3c96376ee7d0d8546032f6fc23d321b0a28 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x7b79751da7edd6a199d60d707f873573de54f43bd19d394cd7e9212f7f2b50ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-wol-2025-02-22 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-22? | 68,837,514 | 68,837,514 |
0742d20c2b59b97c3f01e9d6be3976859ae5c131 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x862c406e573eba3cced3a0d465215764b7083b474733f010d6b2d2d0a3b7d2d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | ucl-ben-mon-2025-02-18 | Will Benfica win on 2025-02-18? | 68,837,514 | 68,837,514 |
00540141341975a302386e968363f5f41791265a | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x6d17971cfea990442802982408a4fbcf181f550bdad95aed07dd002b00d74dcb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-ars-2025-03-09 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-09? | 68,914,164 | 68,914,164 |
d7fe02204bbb91e7aee2d095529c62da24738a17 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xe6fbf79ae9f5c73b1561c5a351a6b991aa64a8365e1232f58a86a51f5bef4c34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-03-10? | 68,914,164 | 68,914,164 |
b256fb61d432a9641cac2f40a8e696fc1f717449 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x5a5891fef3ceb7ef471bab5a2bc6062e1bb5e583060c2c089143d26715074a04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | ucl-mad-rma-2025-03-12 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | 68,981,762 | 68,981,762 |
ce1b25fa5adb7eed61630a3d4309bb4b788a7b26 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x6fefd77e34096427832bfafc7b8747aee2fb30ba25c0adbcbe08586ce7ef87b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | ucl-ars-psv-2025-03-12 | Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-03-12? | 68,981,762 | 68,981,762 |
2beeb956c639e1ce89307c86026c8943fb5a476c | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x2565d91a1e958305581b30f2f3c9b9e1c84db0ce3f7be235a64135fb557c3a1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | uel-ath-rom-2025-03-13 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-03-13? | 69,066,794 | 69,066,794 |
8a7d3e6ddd3496e5574719f6c2383982b5842793 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x859245cb0ca1739a712514dc47e453923d88848be77c655d76bb2d076e556461 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | uel-ran-fen-2025-03-13 | Will Fenerbahce win on 2025-03-13? | 69,066,794 | 69,066,794 |
eac2c3d5951d79fcb92c53e06d7bf6300755dcd6 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x65d176d3fb0cf1fe2878976b1eb3407b48f9e3a8711d6b7e5f8b004a32706815 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-mun-2025-03-16 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-16? | 69,147,024 | 69,147,024 |
e14f0bfaef8e616fbd177f8d3699be739c852318 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xa9b8eac5201bef4cd57293f875fdc5f975705adf0c3804ad7195047eac7c9114 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | what-will-kanyes-token-ticker-be | Will Kanye name his token YZY? | 69,804,596 | 69,804,596 |
9e1cfcbdbd88ba4f5d834aac7f6ae50ac96d7aa8 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xc5dde9adf1ff80235e3fe47fcc7430304ebd262ceca10dae750c6667a64ea87b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-cry-2025-04-02 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-02? | 69,937,644 | 69,937,644 |
14153aaa311c13f2eb48c02cf4c9131812660af8 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x2e2881cb38535533865a47328b5d5b35eadec196381990b94ef8e9331b5176f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | 69,937,648 | 69,937,648 |
2713efffd496ef4848ccf53adef30e9aaab6d0fc | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x0dba274b16890102020d79e838a9fe0dd0ccc9ae33f271a9f67be011f1fc4fb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-not-2025-04-05 | Will Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | 69,953,682 | 69,953,682 |
bf3512cf286860f78afe70ed63b4c1502e775273 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x130ceb9fec2b69491404cc5e56c7740d0c54b0e3761ddce90533fbfaf2131d57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-new-2025-04-07 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-07? | 70,035,690 | 70,035,690 |
8978b7c294984c41a378b71940c5c92a29c2a1b0 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x9ddc59cb0f740a4f3374719b949db7853c19606bfeec0ab9069d2952911db125 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | 70,411,117 | 70,411,117 |
dfca7fc662d5573e5bd35d53ae366c6c72836f00 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x88794d6920186eaa5a50de4758c9a5be9483660d17bf82d29037d05086d82f09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-ips-2025-05-03 | Will Everton win on 2025-05-03? | 71,106,645 | 71,106,645 |
c1b514d1c0ff9c803542d3e777c1f39d3ce336b2 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x9d629225c85e0905776806e368468d6db313452ad9608cfd838af07f943d34e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | epl-not-bre-2025-05-01 | Will Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford end in a draw? | 71,106,647 | 71,106,647 |
06c4917a7d9cbc175d313fd459fe83aba3022b8b | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xc5821602b440e61665dce5dcdc0fd20153864ba185d26a13e9be80fe98bb9e97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | 71,255,398 | 71,255,398 |
4690f6817bddc8ca76180297079c59048aff1798 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x4926bfaeefa6995400d251db43bfb5ad5969b5c08a32e6ec2d391a48d26f5759 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-wes-2025-05-11 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-11? | 71,480,361 | 71,480,361 |
37e84128f3757881d628558f5ba54353694206cc | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x4f41dcf62337975c5bb40a27d807d81f6a9eba3eb0da2954d776f052d47ab6b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16? | 71,616,623 | 71,616,623 |
4fb968cb903bfb215e728db163f31de4004a021f | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x3746b94f8eb04848a7f21d9a750f3bf9c2f63d4a2702dea84cb99c4fca585228 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-ful-2025-05-18 | Will Brentford win on 2025-05-18? | 71,708,130 | 71,708,130 |
e4d1f168d826b3c154466eff0473b309fe6181f0 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x2dd48cda4f295a810ac0a62aef9066f694cc98d27a40c70e78bb9ff859fa88e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro-2024-ukraine-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf be the next President of Iran? | Even... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-wol-2025-05-20 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-05-20? | 71,777,263 | 71,777,263 |
333f8eaa3e9ccd0d49840ceb50936dd1a9659831 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x469f3c4e904a5df055d7819bf6c93e122678eb793aab00d76e64fecc6ab13aab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro-2024-ukraine-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf be the next President of Iran? | Event: next-president-of-iran | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winn... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-bre-2025-05-25 | Will Brentford win on 2025-05-25? | 73,994,080 | 73,994,080 |
5f2312a06c75b27724875af6c39f1311e37bd91d | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x834a4109dbd18f97695e4858b3a18d21fff19bc2dc7c055f18b96843ac1de17b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf be the next President of Iran? | Event: next-president-of-iran | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic President... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-june | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | 73,994,080 | 73,994,080 |
d9ad59861842e64bf250f10d4fcb842d7f02ec95 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x872c8e9a4e4808a2ab714c267bd8a93f63cb739c853d7e4de2b42009e73f9b3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Pr... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-june | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | 73,994,080 | 73,994,080 |
9bfc11786d0934580c164f3b047ca230861d537f | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xb8b8ffbe9572ca0cc515b1d8606e082c5b99dd1c9c7e9e599b535b0b1e1bb96c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-ast-2025-05-25 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-25? | 73,994,080 | 73,994,080 |
8f8be9818867523d1b0c18e9fd291d5bb01a8bf8 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xd3b00172aaef014161f3b18896630dc76b3fcd05843f41ccbc8bfd51e88d27f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-bou-2024-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Benfica win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Inter end in a draw? | 73,994,080 | 73,994,080 |
880a2470302e738475e251bafd79c1b225a7a3ee | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xc964405e53d4e01e6c1a2b6e9303bf0d77f0600f6fc7a391532c01919f0c535d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-bou-2024-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Benfica win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-mon-ben-2025-02-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-22? | Event: epl-ars-wes-2025-02-22 | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | ucl-new-bar-2025-09-18 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? | 76,628,956 | 76,628,956 |
5533040089304c536687b3c708f89ef5a204496b | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xc9af23329fd1d73cf4755219b5e2efe852eec9b4f5fd24dbe407c253810f7b14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Benfica win on 2025-02-12? | Event: ucl-mon-ben-2025-02-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-22? | Event: epl-ars-wes-2025-02-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-22? | Event: epl-bou-wol-2025-02-22 | Choic... | yes | 1 | uef-swe-che-2025-10-10 | Will Switzerland win on 2025-10-10? | 77,583,304 | 77,583,304 |
6c742a66f77eba7288856e35de678eac89c717de | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xb776cb9484466356c24852c5f25d6a6adbc55315c71d7fa69ef3c7f87b84b8e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-22? | Event: epl-ars-wes-2025-02-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-22? | Event: epl-bou-wol-2025-02-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Benfica win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-ben-mon-2025-02-18 | Choic... | yes | 1 | uef-svk-lux-2025-10-13 | Will Slovakia win on 2025-10-13? | 77,657,334 | 77,657,334 |
da22d822cbf048007cebb64cb16c3960377ad30f | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x4472973213244c75974e74162c79f4c51878dd027d332796d209ad5529ea227f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-22? | Event: epl-bou-wol-2025-02-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Benfica win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-ben-mon-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-03-09 | Choic... | yes | 1 | lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? | 77,916,031 | 77,916,031 |
e1d0c059b5c1e2904f27d930ff027e37c1d0c00e | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x5bcc643bfdc14b8c672cbf981c2464dd3e889eb398c7298ccf6eff24c56dcda2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Benfica win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-ben-mon-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-03-10? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? | 77,958,852 | 77,958,852 |
0a80b52925f3e3a553c9a09fd53b1159707181c7 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xa97e77fd0f8970f1d081d53639167b53a9d26f0cf44d00dd318eb13ae6f486e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-03-10? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-mad-rma-2025-03-12 | Cho... | yes | 1 | ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | 78,005,529 | 78,005,529 |
7674b84f3e73bc282929f848312b1dc532b2d087 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x54ec22ff213911451a4cb7d7b6615aa785a8bd9ec444700a679c6d5b8a5e317c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-03-10? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-mad-rma-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-ars-psv-2025-03-12... | yes | 1 | uel-ste1-bol1-2025-10-23 | Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-10-23? | 78,093,423 | 78,093,423 |
08feb492afb14dd69612df2dbba32c61ea54ccd1 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xa26ac375eabcaf287a9ee25a71a067125f388b510fed679510aad6797a1007bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-mad-rma-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-ars-psv-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-03-13? | Event: uel-ath-rom-2025-03-13 |... | yes | 1 | uel-scf1-utr1-2025-10-23 | Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | 78,093,423 | 78,093,423 |
c92c8db28fe77da66adfc68f5b6100ca5a988ea6 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xf7414748322d2689606f5030537182231f3c5e6e01fbcdd370b17fcab1291855 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-ars-psv-2025-03-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-03-13? | Event: uel-ath-rom-2025-03-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahce win on 2025-03-13? | Event: uel-ran-fen-2025-03-13 | ... | yes | 1 | uel-mta1-mid1-2025-10-23 | Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-10-23? | 78,093,423 | 78,093,423 |
cacf230ac0be5c8b038a5c256795ecec8a956e9e | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x73330cf905c4bf224e09f9f38cfcf642a74601885b5e1e303a52f8ee02e8f3ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-03-13? | Event: uel-ath-rom-2025-03-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fenerbahce win on 2025-03-13? | Event: uel-ran-fen-2025-03-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-lei-mun-2025-03-1... | yes | 1 | lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | 78,182,368 | 78,182,368 |
e27838e2160774f9640fa8f6d78787aa6dd0a75b | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xc034ac69f99d3754a416f23f6a771693bfc6eaf4417c9a4309c8f51813965a37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fenerbahce win on 2025-03-13? | Event: uel-ran-fen-2025-03-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-lei-mun-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye name his token YZY? | Event: what-will-kanyes-token... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-liv-2025-10-25 | Will Brentford win on 2025-10-25? | 78,182,368 | 78,182,368 |
78756581cda8aa419b3e01b74fb19ed8be77ea04 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xdf14bd5268a24f7203dee8bfa046df7f935ce76eb75cea6ee6beb96b819b82f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-16? | Event: epl-lei-mun-2025-03-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kanye name his token YZY? | Event: what-will-kanyes-token-ticker-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-02? | Event: epl-sou-... | yes | 1 | efl-bre-gri-2025-10-28 | Will Brentford FC win on 2025-10-28? | 78,321,380 | 78,321,380 |
3af9f1818688f88372439abf2e480c3cf0e99b98 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xd05b0bccd50d42f6ec38d5f21ad588ca880549fbb0f3a11830ea30a1b1b47d06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kanye name his token YZY? | Event: what-will-kanyes-token-ticker-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-02? | Event: epl-sou-cry-2025-04-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-0... | yes | 1 | efl-cfc-wol-2025-10-29 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,348,159 | 78,348,159 |
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