sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11a6061fbefcfd61082fefe11a0438fd6219a027 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x7962dd0b79fb3585682185c0b2254fad2c5215fc4358ecac188004b1f5f208ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-02? | Event: epl-sou-cry-2025-04-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-a... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-lee-2025-11-01 | Will Brighton win on 2025-11-01? | 78,500,623 | 78,500,623 |
ac853059359059fa2d118441b9b3a34c103f477d | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xa07147f49bc8266b37bafb4c9d1ee96b759c24ebb9736b8d2371768bf49fbdf4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-ast-not-2025-04-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-07? | Event: epl-lei-ne... | yes | 1 | ucl-oly-psv-2025-11-04 | Will Olympiakós SFP vs. PSV end in a draw? | 78,609,126 | 78,609,126 |
c15b9fcbc726d53b578ce25b848f5cd69fb83cbc | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x3725b2941aa07ad71c5ab2e17b3151416b2ca8dfbd51530fd3c35d37559d267e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-ast-not-2025-04-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-07? | Event: epl-lei-new-2025-04-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-... | yes | 1 | uel-mid1-cel3-2025-11-06 | Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-11-06? | 78,695,812 | 78,695,812 |
93463bdc67157116e2cdd7505cabaac3d83d8c4c | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x7463f9473af4aae11da78f94dd46097ebde20267764b4a02fefa04b92f517833 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-07? | Event: epl-lei-new-2025-04-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-05-03? | Event: epl-eve-ips-2025-05-03 | Choic... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-bur-2025-11-08 | Will West Ham win on 2025-11-08? | 78,787,861 | 78,787,861 |
9181f65c2fdbbc427e959d3fba18c9176be729a1 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xeec5753bde5137d8a76b75e973b8e3ceb80d3e0125fb4357dff9063d3c7f105f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-05-03? | Event: epl-eve-ips-2025-05-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-bre-... | yes | 1 | fl1-str-lil-2025-11-09 | Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-11-09? | 78,823,319 | 78,823,319 |
56cba1a68de97f01ce29a37d4f0bc23da1a136d1 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x3577cc620d44d46e2f2cba80bc31e07b1f1ead4d69d68e3530d0ac40b5e9866c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-05-03? | Event: epl-eve-ips-2025-05-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-05-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 m... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-ful-2025-11-08 | Will Fulham win on 2025-11-08? | 78,962,869 | 78,962,869 |
a4eb4ef5422d0d1a51c7702d67f7be89eb9589ed | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x0e7976c86255fd38adce1e53f1744cdbbb2406be3403fa4f1bb567189b89334f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-05-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-bou-2025-11-09 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-09? | 78,962,873 | 78,962,873 |
e3f7732ee7522a30b4ee6d2448437adbc44d07a5 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xfa19aa44a429fafd7d7d2fb8c58bb03da3ce8abcc2b8f1b6b6a001956155c233 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-11? | Event: epl-mun-wes-2025-05-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16? ... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-new-2025-11-09 | Will Brentford vs. Newcastle end in a draw? | 78,962,875 | 78,962,875 |
52358c93090fe72510dcd3f3144a64b64c61013d | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xb9e0935237b393f4fb9b1a3edb24e0b55b847405aec0c5a7731bfbfbc2f79981 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-11? | Event: epl-mun-wes-2025-05-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-bre-ful-2025-05-18... | yes | 1 | lal-val-bet-2025-11-09 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-09? | 78,962,879 | 78,962,879 |
3817074fd75813ad1bbdab94f74972c26174f6be | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x86d669c09877311417c7925744c3d1d7db30adc3ec07d10435ecc478df313dbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-bre-ful-2025-05-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-05-20? | Event: epl-cry-wol-2025-05-20 | ... | yes | 1 | uef-lux-ger-2025-11-14 | Will Germany win on 2025-11-14? | 79,041,777 | 79,041,777 |
4394ac393fe17b19b2a6ba4a70131770e6d48dce | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x486be5adc1c1fbc6e796ebccd41b48b15368c55f1abcd3b50dcb9b51cf5a18ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-bre-ful-2025-05-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-05-20? | Event: epl-cry-wol-2025-05-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-wol-bre-2025-05-25 ... | yes | 1 | uef-che-swe-2025-11-15 | Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-15? | 79,083,321 | 79,083,321 |
a03840528413ada490340cd3a6ab172ccfaa3cab | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xbd52c4225c3a2fe97e1ae3754b2aadd1739c58344298879f6958e883a0459404 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-05-20? | Event: epl-cry-wol-2025-05-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-wol-bre-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? |... | yes | 1 | fif-rus-chl-2025-11-15 | Will Chile win on 2025-11-15? | 79,083,321 | 79,083,321 |
07afab34673dbaed7611ad05568574f1d553b5a2 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x4e3ec6b7a46a89448f210d5796727090756adbabdd27fc72b34982637a12e2d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-wol-bre-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps aft... | yes | 1 | uef-aze-fra-2025-11-16 | Will France win on 2025-11-16? | 79,125,994 | 79,125,994 |
fdfdaf253f7303d032e900b207b3f0089c8c78c1 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xaa35bfbb79fdee6ec8c659ba3fffefa8fc23e37683ba410f118f56ac6c2a5ba1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Vil... | yes | 1 | uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Will England win on 2025-11-16? | 79,125,994 | 79,125,994 |
c6a4115fff006b5b0d68bf5ce4711bc4ad651cc8 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0xb377873dfacaad150bf1384f8fe9c16f2e10f6dd314ddc7bf9682ad2cea9d663 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-mun-ast-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Inter end in... | no | 1 | uniswap-cup | Will ENS win 2025 Uniswap Cup? | 79,125,994 | 79,125,994 |
89f3d8aeb48301cac565e3bd7e7cf04930fb75da | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x9307ddc6ea0bf56377fd195cd90e177480573b524010b2924fc7d824f0c1ec8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-mun-ast-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Inter end in a draw? | Event: ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba... | yes | 1 | uef-nir-lux-2025-11-17 | Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17? | 79,170,585 | 79,170,585 |
fe467d887613dcb08f3d303218094a39f132dba0 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x49fcb61e0be2a69b7a5b26e74b7b05d0a997f12606bebdb294c565efe8e53348 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Inter end in a draw? | Event: ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-bar-2025-09-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Switzerland win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-swe-ch... | no | 1 | uniswap-cup | Will ZKsync win 2025 Uniswap Cup? | 79,176,373 | 79,176,373 |
7e8a48d55956095d123cdce3f5eb23e04002ee97 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x359e2f76b3b19e441a165fdae67534eae26cd3d1743881b98262c9c0b9edb984 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-bar-2025-09-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Switzerland win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-swe-che-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Slovakia win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-svk-lux-2025-10-13 | Ch... | yes | 1 | uef-bel1-grc-2025-11-18 | Will Belarus vs. Greece end in a draw? | 79,212,231 | 79,212,231 |
4aba72bb4c5d84a8e4423066f5e6a9cbb5d236cc | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x35fe55c8383c83ee219ac6de2e65d6e8d96693782a0766dd74e9fd7147487d2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Switzerland win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-swe-che-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Slovakia win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-svk-lux-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | ... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-cry-2025-11-22 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-22? | 79,383,461 | 79,383,461 |
acdec859fd4e6dd8865316b1433efec7745fe441 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x393931eb887f76e3f8058cecb1e8b6e9e99f36a53379bea55d23a5776b3f4d8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Slovakia win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-svk-lux-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Ch... | yes | 1 | epl-lee-ast-2025-11-23 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-23? | 79,410,914 | 79,410,914 |
30dbec913f38741f5d8371fad604fff1f3a7bcf5 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x5ce6663f0fafdc49ce0bd104938680454bb9b0f164d00602b043eb2c9e6c6e85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kob-bvb-... | yes | 1 | ucl-liv-psv-2025-11-26 | Will PSV win on 2025-11-26? | 79,559,638 | 79,559,638 |
760fb324fb9f83f74a6fb6dbe4f0a3f2ea560793 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x9d8fa70f1042d2324ef698f7f8e5bf408d478ff90ebdf02ab7b83a657c4cc364 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-ste1... | yes | 1 | uel-bol1-rbs1-2025-11-27 | Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-11-27? | 79,601,761 | 79,601,761 |
568dbf695cc26c75d5984c80a2a9a3e6dc67a18d | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x054150f68b3e3340e0dc28b78ee9f7be43c147dc3ff5b99dcffe8593a7e8262c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-ste1-bol1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-... | yes | 1 | fl1-sbr-met-2025-11-23 | Will FC Metz win on 2025-11-23? | 79,601,784 | 79,601,784 |
6a54180802ca0a819104a73ddb5fdf4e00b76a03 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x235c498c8b5f7dd11ec89e116b40aa6d6db89601fed80fa9519bd972c6eec0b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-ste1-bol1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-scf1-utr1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-mta1-mi... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-bre-2025-11-01 | Will Brentford win on 2025-11-01? | 79,601,784 | 79,601,784 |
ceb4fe2326916dddece7cbec9b3be45dc15fcf02 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x36023b2689f3aa77f93e0a31a7f311f58074eea53d79556cc70410d4b3e66d4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-scf1-utr1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-mta1-mid1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025... | yes | 1 | ucl-kob1-kai1-2025-11-26 | Will Qairat FK win on 2025-11-26? | 79,601,784 | 79,601,784 |
a2d896cd4861ede51acf7b16e7bde885e2b8a96b | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x4709b1adb2f0fd9cb12a98d36cd4baa8d36d0b57b30e80f79dc98ee32a805cad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-mta1-mid1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-bre-liv-2025-10-... | yes | 1 | uel-fen1-stu3-2025-10-23 | Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? | 79,601,784 | 79,601,784 |
085eae2456f71b98b9796ca040b7d568718e7462 | 0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5 | 0x4d447b4db26de9247abbebbda572ccfc9408a7252209d8d3feb9ac9962922a1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-bre-liv-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-bre-gri-2025-10-28 |... | yes | 1 | fl1-met-rcl-2025-10-29 | Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-29? | 79,601,784 | 79,601,784 |
2644de48b7449fbfb06e9a7f3ab8fd0c35c0981b | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x1aca76cc3673fbc2b6b0ab521510dd70320884067d0104d437bc2b187e5ee785 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21?
Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | 78,028,308 | 78,028,308 |
0cd50f435cfc13bec7feff9b952a3246ad461594 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0xd7cab9a5e86fa6aceb4a8f5b14f6e6f8a326592c8a644710a02a67efb6f126f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22?
Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice... | yes | 1 | ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | 78,117,487 | 78,117,487 |
21c4cb59ab6ec5838867ab04347579d21d008b05 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x66ec7e2bb2dc538206761e9a7ef5836a239807a2c161e904c83023af6a429eed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26?
Eve... | yes | 1 | fl1-lyo-str-2025-10-26 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | 78,223,458 | 78,223,458 |
32f67d55771cadd791f4c53a462977f28f3d1aaf | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0xab00d3d93312cacea864022590bf9eaaef711686ac21bbe4212e53b0e4107c81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | lal-ray-ala-2025-10-26 | Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-26? | 78,223,458 | 78,223,458 |
fc4d3c017d42d338aa395c3e777be901481e1c96 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x61cba34d92474b5a5aeb87967f964e3ee57a252e1c6a9debb520fa82a58b3664 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | 78,266,009 | 78,266,009 |
22b8254b35726b0a71c1484367ff7ea4e05bf4bd | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0xca78e9f42e78f31d8e61cc3ca2a4cd0a0941e8a7f07c166e1413cb4a3251abb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | por-mor-por-2025-10-27 | Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-27? | 78,266,009 | 78,266,009 |
ea15d53b9fadcd560b89cc84f9a70d8e7bf350e5 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x6b4902482016a9eab1833df7458d97a58e757d022b690cbf93723236ac019184 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | mls-clt-nyc-2025-10-28 | Will New York City FC win on 2025-10-28? | 78,309,883 | 78,309,883 |
28269647b23705dd0bf964e154c75a184b42a15b | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0xeb34b745187ad8e2ee0c0cc7cd8f8f533afeedd677821725cbdeb3d02ccea178 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | sea-ata-mil-2025-10-28 | Will Atalanta vs. AC Milan end in a draw? | 78,309,883 | 78,309,883 |
282679a2143ce03d4ce7925a0cae5e16e0fdcfe6 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x2f422e5f45d7dbc197aed6a20fd0b5fe5cf050adad623a77242a89dfc3f31042 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | lal-get-gir-2025-10-31 | Will Getafe win on 2025-10-31? | 78,436,291 | 78,436,291 |
76b017cf5bb6dac7af3415c04a977321fbb42497 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x0748437be1fb6e81ace417669a129843dd9cdc9c066eafaacca401b176b50b61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | ucl-ben-lev-2025-11-05 | Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-11-05? | 78,654,762 | 78,654,762 |
3ea9c6878cdf7f5376b3d42be8591a23bf7fcde8 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x8758bbab242f5b68ec3a66d49126161f2601e22a62272bdfa23bf0eeaaaa805e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05 | Will Club Brugge KV vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? | 78,654,762 | 78,654,762 |
1abd39388a8f0a08c7a6c6d02591bb950a871b3e | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x4f9df1e46c2aa1970a096356baf169fb656824fce0f5ddd2c50e5d146b4cdfd8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | uel-stu4-not1-2025-11-06 | Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? | 78,682,491 | 78,682,491 |
655277d5f6577f85b2144003902eaba8ebc8afd9 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x3725b2941aa07ad71c5ab2e17b3151416b2ca8dfbd51530fd3c35d37559d267e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | uel-mid1-cel3-2025-11-06 | Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-11-06? | 78,713,537 | 78,713,537 |
2f5f267d8d4eec5742783d6eaed2b38ae134e427 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x65aa5cc204d502c088b2f40b1695d589e456c61686dd22fbc5ba7aab2a6a8e49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | aus-ade-wsw-2025-11-07 | Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-11-07? | 78,713,537 | 78,713,537 |
ed51b52802290226c5b420654883ee63e3fe9063 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0xd295665ee26c4e47628d5c58daf17d0128ea26f6ddbcf89822f6903e2b3d49fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | col-mai-fio-2025-11-06 | Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-06? | 78,713,537 | 78,713,537 |
98ec5e45a2146a637b52d90f20277d33454a37b0 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x05d112bd24807718de4266d3ac0a7520bccc4da01363a70b9a2709a2e2b8968d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | arg-tig-est-2025-11-09 | Will CA Tigre win on 2025-11-09? | 78,835,492 | 78,835,492 |
8c0aeb128c145c6366c5d4469b0d714d871a8a39 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0xe38edb339b1ec42465b004d08685fbebf64effddb8c4093b263d3455d25e64e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | arg-riv1-cac-2025-11-10 | Will CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. CA Central Córdoba end in a draw? | 78,870,635 | 78,870,635 |
7ad865bd6e24d442354c784b6f642122793a885a | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x2a356c1475f7112ee9a28e3219a3a17d01b7e656ecf5dda7cdae585df80b82bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | arg-ald-sms-2025-11-15 | Will CA Aldosivi win on 2025-11-15? | 79,093,109 | 79,093,109 |
d8d533c4fb3f887513a659a2051642af614ed291 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0xf858f49381b394955f83c9de4a02c6ffadf248d907eff4683e26c990fefe6d09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | cof-cri-hnd-2025-11-18 | Will Costa Rica vs. Honduras end in a draw? | 79,234,924 | 79,234,924 |
32fc4691c4f1ddd2ad701b78a16141bea7325a04 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x86d011ac6d25ffc179248bb336df3295cb1023f6132bf31d0bfc33b062cb307b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | bra-cor1-sao-2025-11-20 | Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-20? | 79,324,213 | 79,324,213 |
fa263eb50b75ed67e3a8b5c04e28ead148185536 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x8d5190b55ca3afc7233bfe8eb1cefe0e0101f9c71def551c5f495eae8421cb9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | bra-bah-fec-2025-11-20 | Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-20? | 79,324,213 | 79,324,213 |
fb6ca539e63dfe660f7d243d4cc1524a9819b623 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x782d12c401b10a1f2c9f67e4d31bb7d189e3fa937e28c425f80c704b834dac95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | fl1-ogc-olm-2025-11-21 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-21? | 79,352,908 | 79,352,908 |
da408a3c59920ccf9f44fff13211116afb495d7e | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x5357d252f1b7619833b8f193c02fed4c78c37d17e94a07c5d19a409748405c23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | lal-ovi-ray-2025-11-23 | Will Real Oviedo vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw? | 79,410,577 | 79,410,577 |
65e61e9cd158c3c3a6a4eae36ea9d1510c72684c | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x562590badb95dda8ea8aead26a743f6c5619fe6f73d54697f92eddac62575a4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | lal-bet-gir-2025-11-23 | Will Real Betis vs. Girona end in a draw? | 79,413,243 | 79,413,243 |
fe35f9853e49e9e22e45f6307d3ee54030e46a47 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x8d6c3a61ff35a00ed0acd0ac91e5ca18c5cf743903fb35698ed94a2dbb77149f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | sea-int-mil-2025-11-23 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? | 79,455,140 | 79,455,140 |
06a6a067e452b0f06fcf319c58051f0331779c23 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0xd52e83b15042499a63d9205b9aab59617b5973e020daf7d9a4385e29d8c07676 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | lal-elc-rea-2025-11-23 | Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | 79,455,140 | 79,455,140 |
7550c6f595036e1a7d026a2b0f173e9ea039e916 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x16619263dbc783cc01c71c41d4e0f690b4498292cb06829dc34d87380e7a155e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | bra-int-san-2025-11-24 | Will SC Internacional vs. Santos FC end in a draw? | 79,495,411 | 79,495,411 |
52544e8a5fdb4bbf3db8926df8e66131724029e3 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x2b5b85d41ac6574ccda4e0f160d9dcd77a4c61fd2c8686c70db1c552751a1291 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | arg-rac-riv-2025-11-24 | Will Racing Club win on 2025-11-24? | 79,495,411 | 79,495,411 |
4aa9fd1da75f79a82cc3a50f3cc41daafe8070dc | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x25ea014b83ff8a8de10f60a1d263a242ba5c59818a3d84167a91beec0bac0a9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | ucl-slp1-ath1-2025-11-25 | Will SK Slavia Praha vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? | 79,518,515 | 79,518,515 |
22f9b063c456b8c22d700a1abdc9d0e8c913d429 | 0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5 | 0x0b13c27cced708928ca49f045781f1b0abfcc7aef6253371e07f007878dda0f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo... | yes | 1 | ucl-atm1-int-2025-11-26 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-26? | 79,562,336 | 79,562,336 |
f30685825770a5b5f03bd401413e79dec7e1baf0 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0xaf51603d78545c838490bafe178ee9ff4c23d0c2161f15e0e530d3735229ad3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
Event: romania-presidential-election-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | 71,695,536 | 71,695,536 |
485a2dc7f70cdb4434b24ce91b8ce4192efd242f | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x266a50d61199f8c5b9f76056fe12ce053375484f96ee8062bb35c7635c8aa400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May?
Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may
Predict the ... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | 71,742,250 | 71,742,250 |
5d8a2b460917a1cf49f8a80799dec7c6dbd85c9e | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x8d43a55b4dd84e630d709f3806e029babfe7668d5284d7e1a9425d2db68a2300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on May 21? | 71,764,247 | 71,764,247 |
5fff9b172b15619f938f6ff16cf5ca06283dc0d5 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x74fa0572e3de0d389d671daf4a085b9b8af9e45688e988c8e4d3ab4254023f16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will George Simion win by 0–6%? | 71,800,509 | 71,800,509 |
240e01c47f77dd2e1fc78f3919021452f6bbad40 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0xb9978202d0c06b52f2a13ffe03db5b4d2ec70475069aa5d9babae51169ad2c8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61–62°F on May 22? | 71,861,427 | 71,861,427 |
a43366f16e019642fbf4be159b4a356bc6850bbc | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0xc58011d3adc81dee0ce14cd3abf596033a29e882796cd45af988863e232ada24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59–60°F on May 22? | 71,861,427 | 71,861,427 |
9fd08db71b7e4bbd54cf41e00bd8b0c27d2531bb | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x92371c019aee57ba77ad87e0537777072bbda9af73b5942ba91936d8fd3dbea1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-27 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58–59°F on May 27? | 72,035,204 | 72,035,204 |
e002cd242009968ffa2f1a9ea8462bdb77f4f623 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0xbc41612c6984860990f0cad47417183ecf000508c633e01dd41900700e44f015 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | yes | 0.394964 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 65–66°F on May 26? | 72,035,226 | 72,035,226 |
169d41eef88bbf2e5079c4abd2d3885f00536d69 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x1c75f0648a5caa38d30f77b88f9edf60439a9a20d5de461ea723fec2ea286195 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-28 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63–64°F on May 28? | 72,100,427 | 72,100,427 |
5f7d0a5d1fe2891e71f717976822d010bd957971 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x6b8e187807c5ff2efd63058157d0820fffa26ba91eac202911c1f7e348f8f826 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or below on May 29? | 72,152,252 | 72,152,252 |
3a01f63cfb0e9d2555a743903db9f66f7c98ab1e | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x052378f4bcff0533a9095ae6aa8fa0a89c9ef165a0ed008349057e45b2c7ac0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-30 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 30? | 72,191,854 | 72,191,854 |
af9ce528779c536f3f55969db1742b25c6b7f623 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x9c24ca42df7c09ec42fecb5a1be9c7ae748c4474f8706a683d07a24cd996cfac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-30 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 30? | 72,191,857 | 72,191,857 |
878f388de574e3acdf5aa287f1d80858f4caf94f | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x2417b052c32a266f6a8c5bb6ce8fa5dfe1d4af0f6294743345047b2c44d0ff88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-30 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on May 30? | 72,191,861 | 72,191,861 |
6c3a5c5e03c557a7f7ba8e80f36bcea2475555f2 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x7cb914fb3a5d30d3dfda77fe0d683678e97ebb954d5f0a93e67b563b11357a75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-31 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 31? | 72,219,130 | 72,219,130 |
ea926b405d43caafc801936d77219dc01a42e6a4 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x25dcf41b951919d9abe55b7dc4aa26ad60c0a6cc55ce66db21b6868e36beeb45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-31 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or below on May 31? | 72,223,954 | 72,223,954 |
a0c12b6b89d939bdb735e125fcfa9d849744d04b | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0xcb367c600d84b83d06a587ece89d5297a56f8db223465cadf387c43cac5afd00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-31 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 31? | 72,228,322 | 72,228,322 |
049f6339d6707408cbbbe8c9a43f1d5a6ec16735 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x46ef26961029b8daac4a31b7a575212202acb1c02351659ec3f02da7fab9b74b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-31 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 31? | 72,228,326 | 72,228,326 |
82ff780c2df08ff108841532b7ee2dcf78828359 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x9823c232849104fcd77c5870ee143a0e19ab9d8bdad70b37eb317e62bd4eece1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-31 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 31? | 72,228,331 | 72,228,331 |
e50cd3b9795d68d285ebf25b00f87b979fc09608 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0xb5748c99417a1b34c801b9ded4fb5433eeb1a518036a480b2bfc41021cd1b538 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-31 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May 31? | 72,228,335 | 72,228,335 |
503bada8bd5861abc8429fee80345c56925944c2 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0xdeb00c0f8999a551f5a794875cff23e58857c7b86f3cc78714217f1af73b4788 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 1? | 72,269,136 | 72,269,136 |
f1bad2fe866d66f09f14a0fc2c14fc581239971b | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x7e2925209794e9d18b004cdfa6ab896cffa5b1874701c6afdee9be2b56ebb0d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-2 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or below on June 2? | 72,287,435 | 72,287,435 |
ae64256b9349cea0ddfcc552adc057c1e879a1f9 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x39b268f0efbabde71a27455efbd295c63311eee85f7224b6525bf7d4aba610bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-2 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69-70°F on June 2? | 72,299,749 | 72,299,749 |
73c19c79b836ae796fab233f425b7c7d00c6b604 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x333f50e42b29d8b5a24679bf5d5ae0087b6ba8c890c559a1701bc87e1981617b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 0.999234 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-2 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73-74°F on June 2? | 72,311,033 | 72,311,033 |
c0f9617978303debd42908ca5e2097bbfeed95c5 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x1c2e28480594b8cb0d6d5bf515530d65ab08536eaa47e43d2e193cda360be961 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-2 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on June 2? | 72,311,040 | 72,311,040 |
db3667ac40a63eca90349070712128b27a4c57ad | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0xf53ef8bf4742a878f9966e68ca9e0bd41f7dcf285a2cdb83f1e16a0ee1271427 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-2 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on June 2? | 72,311,046 | 72,311,046 |
5ec54e3a972c7958b78997cfc4ccff8c344d2d85 | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0x7610e719c97f6fbe1a6c719d666a2d8aae60b7a1a89265daa37e23c699fe154b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-2 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or higher on June 2? | 72,311,054 | 72,311,054 |
612d50c031f3dfdfc56019f249a1b47d3f82775b | 0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16 | 0xc48b03f018b88298839c8f57ee10087e5e13eee8d701aafcef018bc8c10dd125 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-3 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on June 3? | 72,333,530 | 72,333,530 |
0269dc1236d478f81732090c618a8bf40be77fee | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x0c771280383da50a54226450e5366b8459cd3c134f78d05bdaba6f9bd72a9ff2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Pacers vs. Kings
Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | kings | 1 | nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Pacers vs. Kings | 65,822,396 | 65,822,396 |
13abe2ff59b038d1db826c2a22eee21d89b22545 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0xa2c64e93feec7f6622a58323938cb015fa3f0ddb579c788c08c8c2491428e502 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Spurs vs. Knicks
Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | knicks | 1 | nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Spurs vs. Knicks | 65,923,212 | 65,923,212 |
5ab867183256bb575edb6c599c1f8f9d1b633bdc | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x1d30e18679afbede74322067495d38bf3f8446395dd9fc721b5ba019db9df825 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Thunder vs. Hornets
Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28
Predict the user's choice and confid... | thunder | 1 | nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Thunder vs. Hornets | 66,060,211 | 66,060,211 |
20b7e571dd8ce550cb3a04fcec5690b40ba77716 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x2cf7f947e9eee05b06cb80cf696d3b4b8174f5731c53400ac062d4c2369b6742 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
Target mark... | wizards | 1 | nba-nyk-was-2024-12-28 | Knicks vs. Wizards | 66,060,211 | 66,060,211 |
1c5aefc32527693ac99b70cfc204f7e60d2560ef | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0xc48738784d0d607ffef3741ce4de173a00c03c1785ceec37569bd5397a051ee3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | jazz | 1 | nba-phi-uta-2024-12-28 | 76ers vs. Jazz | 66,060,211 | 66,060,211 |
aace726bcf8d3f41ab2031ee8d2f14110f50c1ab | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0xfce0ef4c13054d79a90d3677d8828485366b08b7c818089767b8109c4aea2c55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | suns | 1 | nba-phx-gsw-2024-12-28 | Suns vs. Warriors | 66,060,211 | 66,060,211 |
67838300e2c86f4fb2a4c38a7197052244afedea | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x2cc4c398ec9a4b8778f0e36a102c7bbb5dd685c03784bc493b6ef892a9d99f80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | clippers | 1 | nba-lac-nop-2024-12-30 | Clippers vs. Pelicans | 66,141,990 | 66,141,990 |
5fc73c63669e9fde8e06b7ab1ff80bd4467add89 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x5529e6ae9f381cc4a5ab24ac2782a3f416846f41a7dfa3b63d39eb4cba24c7ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | hornets | 1 | nba-chi-cha-2024-12-30 | Bulls vs. Hornets | 66,141,990 | 66,141,990 |
1feb7a9da0184aa4e5b9474b33ad22b2f3df4345 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x5de8a48516c1724a4819433470dea5f44d722c49a847da67679f768091a97473 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | kings | 1 | nba-dal-sac-2024-12-30 | Mavericks vs. Kings | 66,141,990 | 66,141,990 |
4dffe8d9fdf8d1c001d37a6797169f05cddbe047 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x6b91d17766497d669e0d9312ad7175ef0386a0af2e78537ef4e613a1927eae63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | pelicans | 1 | nba-nop-mia-2025-01-01 | Pelicans vs. Heat | 66,206,372 | 66,206,372 |
315b0170bc693b97b4705f1f5dd9de0384ec41ba | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0xf87d0011de00a0983eeb71daff4781be696094de90641ef61cbe4d3ef4ca4ea4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | 76ers | 1 | nba-phi-gsw-2025-01-02 | 76ers vs. Warriors | 66,248,776 | 66,248,776 |
9a3d3bf2ab2ea83e8ee435155150f1b306799ad6 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x13044f50c2db7f4b70525119241096da76daaf3e8aef2436449cb8b0fd376cf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | trail blazers | 0.930912 | nba-por-lal-2025-01-02 | Trail Blazers vs. Lakers | 66,262,938 | 66,262,938 |
adb64752c54ae3050eb2c794f8d5d5f616cebf61 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x46b20e8cce1e6f815bfa6ef4e2fdec4017c1a1892825f5190aac024db60d551f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | lakers | 1 | nba-atl-lal-2025-01-03 | Hawks vs. Lakers | 66,305,657 | 66,305,657 |
1dad7176e9c583fdb11f1d98806dab4f9e28ea4c | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0xcc619e24714ed324f92437723c4ae5ed5fb726b06ee5ea52fd75ca9553d94b0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | celtics | 1 | nba-bos-hou-2025-01-03 | Celtics vs. Rockets | 66,305,657 | 66,305,657 |
8bc6a32121e93563e6d4a2955251260f9e3e17e0 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0xd0a73dd5338b9f4685758f1fdcd0a52f5916381505b1668893fbe9dbb91f00c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | knicks | 1 | nba-nyk-okc-2025-01-03 | Knicks vs. Thunder | 66,305,657 | 66,305,657 |
a71463c50e2983f90687cb2ac10a9ddb7a2dbae1 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x0ca80ab0d5b7c05fc4daad340a3cc5b115174c596da09a54f233bb444f7e5a7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | bulls | 1 | nba-nyk-chi-2025-01-04 | Knicks vs. Bulls | 66,323,585 | 66,323,585 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.