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11a6061fbefcfd61082fefe11a0438fd6219a027
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x7962dd0b79fb3585682185c0b2254fad2c5215fc4358ecac188004b1f5f208ad
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-02? | Event: epl-sou-cry-2025-04-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-a...
yes
1
epl-bri-lee-2025-11-01
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-01?
78,500,623
78,500,623
ac853059359059fa2d118441b9b3a34c103f477d
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0xa07147f49bc8266b37bafb4c9d1ee96b759c24ebb9736b8d2371768bf49fbdf4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | Event: epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-ast-not-2025-04-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-07? | Event: epl-lei-ne...
yes
1
ucl-oly-psv-2025-11-04
Will Olympiakós SFP vs. PSV end in a draw?
78,609,126
78,609,126
c15b9fcbc726d53b578ce25b848f5cd69fb83cbc
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x3725b2941aa07ad71c5ab2e17b3151416b2ca8dfbd51530fd3c35d37559d267e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | Event: epl-ast-not-2025-04-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-07? | Event: epl-lei-new-2025-04-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-...
yes
1
uel-mid1-cel3-2025-11-06
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-11-06?
78,695,812
78,695,812
93463bdc67157116e2cdd7505cabaac3d83d8c4c
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x7463f9473af4aae11da78f94dd46097ebde20267764b4a02fefa04b92f517833
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-07? | Event: epl-lei-new-2025-04-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-05-03? | Event: epl-eve-ips-2025-05-03 | Choic...
yes
1
epl-wes-bur-2025-11-08
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-08?
78,787,861
78,787,861
9181f65c2fdbbc427e959d3fba18c9176be729a1
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0xeec5753bde5137d8a76b75e973b8e3ceb80d3e0125fb4357dff9063d3c7f105f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-15? | Event: ucl-dor-bar-2025-04-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-05-03? | Event: epl-eve-ips-2025-05-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-bre-...
yes
1
fl1-str-lil-2025-11-09
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-11-09?
78,823,319
78,823,319
56cba1a68de97f01ce29a37d4f0bc23da1a136d1
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x3577cc620d44d46e2f2cba80bc31e07b1f1ead4d69d68e3530d0ac40b5e9866c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-05-03? | Event: epl-eve-ips-2025-05-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-05-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 m...
yes
1
epl-eve-ful-2025-11-08
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-08?
78,962,869
78,962,869
a4eb4ef5422d0d1a51c7702d67f7be89eb9589ed
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x0e7976c86255fd38adce1e53f1744cdbbb2406be3403fa4f1bb567189b89334f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-05-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Manchester United...
yes
1
epl-ast-bou-2025-11-09
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-09?
78,962,873
78,962,873
e3f7732ee7522a30b4ee6d2448437adbc44d07a5
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0xfa19aa44a429fafd7d7d2fb8c58bb03da3ce8abcc2b8f1b6b6a001956155c233
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-11? | Event: epl-mun-wes-2025-05-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16? ...
yes
1
epl-bre-new-2025-11-09
Will Brentford vs. Newcastle end in a draw?
78,962,875
78,962,875
52358c93090fe72510dcd3f3144a64b64c61013d
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0xb9e0935237b393f4fb9b1a3edb24e0b55b847405aec0c5a7731bfbfbc2f79981
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-11? | Event: epl-mun-wes-2025-05-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-bre-ful-2025-05-18...
yes
1
lal-val-bet-2025-11-09
Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-09?
78,962,879
78,962,879
3817074fd75813ad1bbdab94f74972c26174f6be
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x86d669c09877311417c7925744c3d1d7db30adc3ec07d10435ecc478df313dbb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16? | Event: epl-che-mun-2025-05-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-bre-ful-2025-05-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-05-20? | Event: epl-cry-wol-2025-05-20 | ...
yes
1
uef-lux-ger-2025-11-14
Will Germany win on 2025-11-14?
79,041,777
79,041,777
4394ac393fe17b19b2a6ba4a70131770e6d48dce
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x486be5adc1c1fbc6e796ebccd41b48b15368c55f1abcd3b50dcb9b51cf5a18ab
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-05-18? | Event: epl-bre-ful-2025-05-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-05-20? | Event: epl-cry-wol-2025-05-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-wol-bre-2025-05-25 ...
yes
1
uef-che-swe-2025-11-15
Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-15?
79,083,321
79,083,321
a03840528413ada490340cd3a6ab172ccfaa3cab
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0xbd52c4225c3a2fe97e1ae3754b2aadd1739c58344298879f6958e883a0459404
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-05-20? | Event: epl-cry-wol-2025-05-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-wol-bre-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? |...
yes
1
fif-rus-chl-2025-11-15
Will Chile win on 2025-11-15?
79,083,321
79,083,321
07afab34673dbaed7611ad05568574f1d553b5a2
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x4e3ec6b7a46a89448f210d5796727090756adbabdd27fc72b34982637a12e2d3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-wol-bre-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps aft...
yes
1
uef-aze-fra-2025-11-16
Will France win on 2025-11-16?
79,125,994
79,125,994
fdfdaf253f7303d032e900b207b3f0089c8c78c1
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0xaa35bfbb79fdee6ec8c659ba3fffefa8fc23e37683ba410f118f56ac6c2a5ba1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Aston Vil...
yes
1
uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16
Will England win on 2025-11-16?
79,125,994
79,125,994
c6a4115fff006b5b0d68bf5ce4711bc4ad651cc8
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0xb377873dfacaad150bf1384f8fe9c16f2e10f6dd314ddc7bf9682ad2cea9d663
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-mun-ast-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Inter end in...
no
1
uniswap-cup
Will ENS win 2025 Uniswap Cup?
79,125,994
79,125,994
89f3d8aeb48301cac565e3bd7e7cf04930fb75da
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x9307ddc6ea0bf56377fd195cd90e177480573b524010b2924fc7d824f0c1ec8c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-mun-ast-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Inter end in a draw? | Event: ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-ba...
yes
1
uef-nir-lux-2025-11-17
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17?
79,170,585
79,170,585
fe467d887613dcb08f3d303218094a39f132dba0
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x49fcb61e0be2a69b7a5b26e74b7b05d0a997f12606bebdb294c565efe8e53348
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Inter end in a draw? | Event: ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-bar-2025-09-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Switzerland win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-swe-ch...
no
1
uniswap-cup
Will ZKsync win 2025 Uniswap Cup?
79,176,373
79,176,373
7e8a48d55956095d123cdce3f5eb23e04002ee97
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x359e2f76b3b19e441a165fdae67534eae26cd3d1743881b98262c9c0b9edb984
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? | Event: ucl-new-bar-2025-09-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Switzerland win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-swe-che-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Slovakia win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-svk-lux-2025-10-13 | Ch...
yes
1
uef-bel1-grc-2025-11-18
Will Belarus vs. Greece end in a draw?
79,212,231
79,212,231
4aba72bb4c5d84a8e4423066f5e6a9cbb5d236cc
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x35fe55c8383c83ee219ac6de2e65d6e8d96693782a0766dd74e9fd7147487d2a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Switzerland win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-swe-che-2025-10-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Slovakia win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-svk-lux-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | ...
yes
1
epl-wol-cry-2025-11-22
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-22?
79,383,461
79,383,461
acdec859fd4e6dd8865316b1433efec7745fe441
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x393931eb887f76e3f8058cecb1e8b6e9e99f36a53379bea55d23a5776b3f4d8a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Slovakia win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-svk-lux-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Ch...
yes
1
epl-lee-ast-2025-11-23
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-23?
79,410,914
79,410,914
30dbec913f38741f5d8371fad604fff1f3a7bcf5
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x5ce6663f0fafdc49ce0bd104938680454bb9b0f164d00602b043eb2c9e6c6e85
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kob-bvb-...
yes
1
ucl-liv-psv-2025-11-26
Will PSV win on 2025-11-26?
79,559,638
79,559,638
760fb324fb9f83f74a6fb6dbe4f0a3f2ea560793
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x9d8fa70f1042d2324ef698f7f8e5bf408d478ff90ebdf02ab7b83a657c4cc364
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-ste1...
yes
1
uel-bol1-rbs1-2025-11-27
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-11-27?
79,601,761
79,601,761
568dbf695cc26c75d5984c80a2a9a3e6dc67a18d
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x054150f68b3e3340e0dc28b78ee9f7be43c147dc3ff5b99dcffe8593a7e8262c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-ste1-bol1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-...
yes
1
fl1-sbr-met-2025-11-23
Will FC Metz win on 2025-11-23?
79,601,784
79,601,784
6a54180802ca0a819104a73ddb5fdf4e00b76a03
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x235c498c8b5f7dd11ec89e116b40aa6d6db89601fed80fa9519bd972c6eec0b6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-ste1-bol1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-scf1-utr1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-mta1-mi...
yes
1
epl-cry-bre-2025-11-01
Will Brentford win on 2025-11-01?
79,601,784
79,601,784
ceb4fe2326916dddece7cbec9b3be45dc15fcf02
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x36023b2689f3aa77f93e0a31a7f311f58074eea53d79556cc70410d4b3e66d4c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-scf1-utr1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-mta1-mid1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025...
yes
1
ucl-kob1-kai1-2025-11-26
Will Qairat FK win on 2025-11-26?
79,601,784
79,601,784
a2d896cd4861ede51acf7b16e7bde885e2b8a96b
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x4709b1adb2f0fd9cb12a98d36cd4baa8d36d0b57b30e80f79dc98ee32a805cad
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-mta1-mid1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-bre-liv-2025-10-...
yes
1
uel-fen1-stu3-2025-10-23
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?
79,601,784
79,601,784
085eae2456f71b98b9796ca040b7d568718e7462
0x0bae9ef6d23b879b11faf7b0958d692596b455b5
0x4d447b4db26de9247abbebbda572ccfc9408a7252209d8d3feb9ac9962922a1d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-25? | Event: lal-val-vil-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-bre-liv-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Brentford FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-bre-gri-2025-10-28 |...
yes
1
fl1-met-rcl-2025-10-29
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-29?
79,601,784
79,601,784
2644de48b7449fbfb06e9a7f3ab8fd0c35c0981b
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x1aca76cc3673fbc2b6b0ab521510dd70320884067d0104d437bc2b187e5ee785
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
yes
1
mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21
Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21?
78,028,308
78,028,308
0cd50f435cfc13bec7feff9b952a3246ad461594
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0xd7cab9a5e86fa6aceb4a8f5b14f6e6f8a326592c8a644710a02a67efb6f126f6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice...
yes
1
ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22?
78,117,487
78,117,487
21c4cb59ab6ec5838867ab04347579d21d008b05
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x66ec7e2bb2dc538206761e9a7ef5836a239807a2c161e904c83023af6a429eed
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? Eve...
yes
1
fl1-lyo-str-2025-10-26
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26?
78,223,458
78,223,458
32f67d55771cadd791f4c53a462977f28f3d1aaf
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0xab00d3d93312cacea864022590bf9eaaef711686ac21bbe4212e53b0e4107c81
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
lal-ray-ala-2025-10-26
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-26?
78,223,458
78,223,458
fc4d3c017d42d338aa395c3e777be901481e1c96
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x61cba34d92474b5a5aeb87967f964e3ee57a252e1c6a9debb520fa82a58b3664
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27?
78,266,009
78,266,009
22b8254b35726b0a71c1484367ff7ea4e05bf4bd
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0xca78e9f42e78f31d8e61cc3ca2a4cd0a0941e8a7f07c166e1413cb4a3251abb1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
por-mor-por-2025-10-27
Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-27?
78,266,009
78,266,009
ea15d53b9fadcd560b89cc84f9a70d8e7bf350e5
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x6b4902482016a9eab1833df7458d97a58e757d022b690cbf93723236ac019184
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
mls-clt-nyc-2025-10-28
Will New York City FC win on 2025-10-28?
78,309,883
78,309,883
28269647b23705dd0bf964e154c75a184b42a15b
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0xeb34b745187ad8e2ee0c0cc7cd8f8f533afeedd677821725cbdeb3d02ccea178
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
sea-ata-mil-2025-10-28
Will Atalanta vs. AC Milan end in a draw?
78,309,883
78,309,883
282679a2143ce03d4ce7925a0cae5e16e0fdcfe6
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x2f422e5f45d7dbc197aed6a20fd0b5fe5cf050adad623a77242a89dfc3f31042
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
lal-get-gir-2025-10-31
Will Getafe win on 2025-10-31?
78,436,291
78,436,291
76b017cf5bb6dac7af3415c04a977321fbb42497
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x0748437be1fb6e81ace417669a129843dd9cdc9c066eafaacca401b176b50b61
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
ucl-ben-lev-2025-11-05
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-11-05?
78,654,762
78,654,762
3ea9c6878cdf7f5376b3d42be8591a23bf7fcde8
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x8758bbab242f5b68ec3a66d49126161f2601e22a62272bdfa23bf0eeaaaa805e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05
Will Club Brugge KV vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?
78,654,762
78,654,762
1abd39388a8f0a08c7a6c6d02591bb950a871b3e
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x4f9df1e46c2aa1970a096356baf169fb656824fce0f5ddd2c50e5d146b4cdfd8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
uel-stu4-not1-2025-11-06
Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?
78,682,491
78,682,491
655277d5f6577f85b2144003902eaba8ebc8afd9
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x3725b2941aa07ad71c5ab2e17b3151416b2ca8dfbd51530fd3c35d37559d267e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
uel-mid1-cel3-2025-11-06
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-11-06?
78,713,537
78,713,537
2f5f267d8d4eec5742783d6eaed2b38ae134e427
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x65aa5cc204d502c088b2f40b1695d589e456c61686dd22fbc5ba7aab2a6a8e49
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
aus-ade-wsw-2025-11-07
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-11-07?
78,713,537
78,713,537
ed51b52802290226c5b420654883ee63e3fe9063
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0xd295665ee26c4e47628d5c58daf17d0128ea26f6ddbcf89822f6903e2b3d49fb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
col-mai-fio-2025-11-06
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-06?
78,713,537
78,713,537
98ec5e45a2146a637b52d90f20277d33454a37b0
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x05d112bd24807718de4266d3ac0a7520bccc4da01363a70b9a2709a2e2b8968d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
arg-tig-est-2025-11-09
Will CA Tigre win on 2025-11-09?
78,835,492
78,835,492
8c0aeb128c145c6366c5d4469b0d714d871a8a39
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0xe38edb339b1ec42465b004d08685fbebf64effddb8c4093b263d3455d25e64e0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
arg-riv1-cac-2025-11-10
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. CA Central Córdoba end in a draw?
78,870,635
78,870,635
7ad865bd6e24d442354c784b6f642122793a885a
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x2a356c1475f7112ee9a28e3219a3a17d01b7e656ecf5dda7cdae585df80b82bb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
arg-ald-sms-2025-11-15
Will CA Aldosivi win on 2025-11-15?
79,093,109
79,093,109
d8d533c4fb3f887513a659a2051642af614ed291
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0xf858f49381b394955f83c9de4a02c6ffadf248d907eff4683e26c990fefe6d09
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
cof-cri-hnd-2025-11-18
Will Costa Rica vs. Honduras end in a draw?
79,234,924
79,234,924
32fc4691c4f1ddd2ad701b78a16141bea7325a04
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x86d011ac6d25ffc179248bb336df3295cb1023f6132bf31d0bfc33b062cb307b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
bra-cor1-sao-2025-11-20
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-20?
79,324,213
79,324,213
fa263eb50b75ed67e3a8b5c04e28ead148185536
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x8d5190b55ca3afc7233bfe8eb1cefe0e0101f9c71def551c5f495eae8421cb9c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
bra-bah-fec-2025-11-20
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-20?
79,324,213
79,324,213
fb6ca539e63dfe660f7d243d4cc1524a9819b623
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x782d12c401b10a1f2c9f67e4d31bb7d189e3fa937e28c425f80c704b834dac95
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
fl1-ogc-olm-2025-11-21
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-21?
79,352,908
79,352,908
da408a3c59920ccf9f44fff13211116afb495d7e
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x5357d252f1b7619833b8f193c02fed4c78c37d17e94a07c5d19a409748405c23
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
lal-ovi-ray-2025-11-23
Will Real Oviedo vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw?
79,410,577
79,410,577
65e61e9cd158c3c3a6a4eae36ea9d1510c72684c
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x562590badb95dda8ea8aead26a743f6c5619fe6f73d54697f92eddac62575a4f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
lal-bet-gir-2025-11-23
Will Real Betis vs. Girona end in a draw?
79,413,243
79,413,243
fe35f9853e49e9e22e45f6307d3ee54030e46a47
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x8d6c3a61ff35a00ed0acd0ac91e5ca18c5cf743903fb35698ed94a2dbb77149f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
sea-int-mil-2025-11-23
Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23?
79,455,140
79,455,140
06a6a067e452b0f06fcf319c58051f0331779c23
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0xd52e83b15042499a63d9205b9aab59617b5973e020daf7d9a4385e29d8c07676
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
lal-elc-rea-2025-11-23
Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw?
79,455,140
79,455,140
7550c6f595036e1a7d026a2b0f173e9ea039e916
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x16619263dbc783cc01c71c41d4e0f690b4498292cb06829dc34d87380e7a155e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
bra-int-san-2025-11-24
Will SC Internacional vs. Santos FC end in a draw?
79,495,411
79,495,411
52544e8a5fdb4bbf3db8926df8e66131724029e3
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x2b5b85d41ac6574ccda4e0f160d9dcd77a4c61fd2c8686c70db1c552751a1291
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
arg-rac-riv-2025-11-24
Will Racing Club win on 2025-11-24?
79,495,411
79,495,411
4aa9fd1da75f79a82cc3a50f3cc41daafe8070dc
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x25ea014b83ff8a8de10f60a1d263a242ba5c59818a3d84167a91beec0bac0a9a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
ucl-slp1-ath1-2025-11-25
Will SK Slavia Praha vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?
79,518,515
79,518,515
22f9b063c456b8c22d700a1abdc9d0e8c913d429
0x0bdd559205acb603acd161435a23c7b8b7ea7ec5
0x0b13c27cced708928ca49f045781f1b0abfcc7aef6253371e07f007878dda0f7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-bay-bru-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo...
yes
1
ucl-atm1-int-2025-11-26
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-26?
79,562,336
79,562,336
f30685825770a5b5f03bd401413e79dec7e1baf0
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0xaf51603d78545c838490bafe178ee9ff4c23d0c2161f15e0e530d3735229ad3f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Event: romania-presidential-election-winner Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
yes
1
romania-presidential-election-winner
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
71,695,536
71,695,536
485a2dc7f70cdb4434b24ce91b8ce4192efd242f
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x266a50d61199f8c5b9f76056fe12ce053375484f96ee8062bb35c7635c8aa400
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may Predict the ...
no
1
how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May?
71,742,250
71,742,250
5d8a2b460917a1cf49f8a80799dec7c6dbd85c9e
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x8d43a55b4dd84e630d709f3806e029babfe7668d5284d7e1a9425d2db68a2300
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-21
Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on May 21?
71,764,247
71,764,247
5fff9b172b15619f938f6ff16cf5ca06283dc0d5
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x74fa0572e3de0d389d671daf4a085b9b8af9e45688e988c8e4d3ab4254023f16
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
yes
1
romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory
Will George Simion win by 0–6%?
71,800,509
71,800,509
240e01c47f77dd2e1fc78f3919021452f6bbad40
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0xb9978202d0c06b52f2a13ffe03db5b4d2ec70475069aa5d9babae51169ad2c8f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61–62°F on May 22?
71,861,427
71,861,427
a43366f16e019642fbf4be159b4a356bc6850bbc
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0xc58011d3adc81dee0ce14cd3abf596033a29e882796cd45af988863e232ada24
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59–60°F on May 22?
71,861,427
71,861,427
9fd08db71b7e4bbd54cf41e00bd8b0c27d2531bb
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x92371c019aee57ba77ad87e0537777072bbda9af73b5942ba91936d8fd3dbea1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-27
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58–59°F on May 27?
72,035,204
72,035,204
e002cd242009968ffa2f1a9ea8462bdb77f4f623
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0xbc41612c6984860990f0cad47417183ecf000508c633e01dd41900700e44f015
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
yes
0.394964
highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-26
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65–66°F on May 26?
72,035,226
72,035,226
169d41eef88bbf2e5079c4abd2d3885f00536d69
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x1c75f0648a5caa38d30f77b88f9edf60439a9a20d5de461ea723fec2ea286195
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-28
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63–64°F on May 28?
72,100,427
72,100,427
5f7d0a5d1fe2891e71f717976822d010bd957971
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x6b8e187807c5ff2efd63058157d0820fffa26ba91eac202911c1f7e348f8f826
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or below on May 29?
72,152,252
72,152,252
3a01f63cfb0e9d2555a743903db9f66f7c98ab1e
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x052378f4bcff0533a9095ae6aa8fa0a89c9ef165a0ed008349057e45b2c7ac0d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-30
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 30?
72,191,854
72,191,854
af9ce528779c536f3f55969db1742b25c6b7f623
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x9c24ca42df7c09ec42fecb5a1be9c7ae748c4474f8706a683d07a24cd996cfac
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-30
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 30?
72,191,857
72,191,857
878f388de574e3acdf5aa287f1d80858f4caf94f
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x2417b052c32a266f6a8c5bb6ce8fa5dfe1d4af0f6294743345047b2c44d0ff88
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-30
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on May 30?
72,191,861
72,191,861
6c3a5c5e03c557a7f7ba8e80f36bcea2475555f2
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x7cb914fb3a5d30d3dfda77fe0d683678e97ebb954d5f0a93e67b563b11357a75
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-31
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 31?
72,219,130
72,219,130
ea926b405d43caafc801936d77219dc01a42e6a4
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x25dcf41b951919d9abe55b7dc4aa26ad60c0a6cc55ce66db21b6868e36beeb45
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-31
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or below on May 31?
72,223,954
72,223,954
a0c12b6b89d939bdb735e125fcfa9d849744d04b
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0xcb367c600d84b83d06a587ece89d5297a56f8db223465cadf387c43cac5afd00
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
0
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-31
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 31?
72,228,322
72,228,322
049f6339d6707408cbbbe8c9a43f1d5a6ec16735
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x46ef26961029b8daac4a31b7a575212202acb1c02351659ec3f02da7fab9b74b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
0
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-31
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 31?
72,228,326
72,228,326
82ff780c2df08ff108841532b7ee2dcf78828359
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x9823c232849104fcd77c5870ee143a0e19ab9d8bdad70b37eb317e62bd4eece1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-31
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 31?
72,228,331
72,228,331
e50cd3b9795d68d285ebf25b00f87b979fc09608
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0xb5748c99417a1b34c801b9ded4fb5433eeb1a518036a480b2bfc41021cd1b538
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-31
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May 31?
72,228,335
72,228,335
503bada8bd5861abc8429fee80345c56925944c2
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0xdeb00c0f8999a551f5a794875cff23e58857c7b86f3cc78714217f1af73b4788
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
0
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-1
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 1?
72,269,136
72,269,136
f1bad2fe866d66f09f14a0fc2c14fc581239971b
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x7e2925209794e9d18b004cdfa6ab896cffa5b1874701c6afdee9be2b56ebb0d3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-2
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or below on June 2?
72,287,435
72,287,435
ae64256b9349cea0ddfcc552adc057c1e879a1f9
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x39b268f0efbabde71a27455efbd295c63311eee85f7224b6525bf7d4aba610bb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-2
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69-70°F on June 2?
72,299,749
72,299,749
73c19c79b836ae796fab233f425b7c7d00c6b604
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x333f50e42b29d8b5a24679bf5d5ae0087b6ba8c890c559a1701bc87e1981617b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
0.999234
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-2
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 73-74°F on June 2?
72,311,033
72,311,033
c0f9617978303debd42908ca5e2097bbfeed95c5
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x1c2e28480594b8cb0d6d5bf515530d65ab08536eaa47e43d2e193cda360be961
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-2
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on June 2?
72,311,040
72,311,040
db3667ac40a63eca90349070712128b27a4c57ad
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0xf53ef8bf4742a878f9966e68ca9e0bd41f7dcf285a2cdb83f1e16a0ee1271427
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-2
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on June 2?
72,311,046
72,311,046
5ec54e3a972c7958b78997cfc4ccff8c344d2d85
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0x7610e719c97f6fbe1a6c719d666a2d8aae60b7a1a89265daa37e23c699fe154b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-2
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or higher on June 2?
72,311,054
72,311,054
612d50c031f3dfdfc56019f249a1b47d3f82775b
0x0bebd2debc5e2f266b8ae2bf8f79d62afdf79f16
0xc48b03f018b88298839c8f57ee10087e5e13eee8d701aafcef018bc8c10dd125
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Choice: no | Confidenc...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-3
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on June 3?
72,333,530
72,333,530
0269dc1236d478f81732090c618a8bf40be77fee
0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4
0x0c771280383da50a54226450e5366b8459cd3c134f78d05bdaba6f9bd72a9ff2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Pacers vs. Kings Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
kings
1
nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22
Pacers vs. Kings
65,822,396
65,822,396
13abe2ff59b038d1db826c2a22eee21d89b22545
0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4
0xa2c64e93feec7f6622a58323938cb015fa3f0ddb579c788c08c8c2491428e502
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Spurs vs. Knicks Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
knicks
1
nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25
Spurs vs. Knicks
65,923,212
65,923,212
5ab867183256bb575edb6c599c1f8f9d1b633bdc
0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4
0x1d30e18679afbede74322067495d38bf3f8446395dd9fc721b5ba019db9df825
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Thunder vs. Hornets Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 Predict the user's choice and confid...
thunder
1
nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28
Thunder vs. Hornets
66,060,211
66,060,211
20b7e571dd8ce550cb3a04fcec5690b40ba77716
0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4
0x2cf7f947e9eee05b06cb80cf696d3b4b8174f5731c53400ac062d4c2369b6742
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0 Target mark...
wizards
1
nba-nyk-was-2024-12-28
Knicks vs. Wizards
66,060,211
66,060,211
1c5aefc32527693ac99b70cfc204f7e60d2560ef
0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4
0xc48738784d0d607ffef3741ce4de173a00c03c1785ceec37569bd5397a051ee3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0 4. Question:...
jazz
1
nba-phi-uta-2024-12-28
76ers vs. Jazz
66,060,211
66,060,211
aace726bcf8d3f41ab2031ee8d2f14110f50c1ab
0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4
0xfce0ef4c13054d79a90d3677d8828485366b08b7c818089767b8109c4aea2c55
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0 4. Question:...
suns
1
nba-phx-gsw-2024-12-28
Suns vs. Warriors
66,060,211
66,060,211
67838300e2c86f4fb2a4c38a7197052244afedea
0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4
0x2cc4c398ec9a4b8778f0e36a102c7bbb5dd685c03784bc493b6ef892a9d99f80
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0 4. Question:...
clippers
1
nba-lac-nop-2024-12-30
Clippers vs. Pelicans
66,141,990
66,141,990
5fc73c63669e9fde8e06b7ab1ff80bd4467add89
0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4
0x5529e6ae9f381cc4a5ab24ac2782a3f416846f41a7dfa3b63d39eb4cba24c7ab
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0 4. Question:...
hornets
1
nba-chi-cha-2024-12-30
Bulls vs. Hornets
66,141,990
66,141,990
1feb7a9da0184aa4e5b9474b33ad22b2f3df4345
0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4
0x5de8a48516c1724a4819433470dea5f44d722c49a847da67679f768091a97473
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0 4. Question:...
kings
1
nba-dal-sac-2024-12-30
Mavericks vs. Kings
66,141,990
66,141,990
4dffe8d9fdf8d1c001d37a6797169f05cddbe047
0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4
0x6b91d17766497d669e0d9312ad7175ef0386a0af2e78537ef4e613a1927eae63
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0 4. Question:...
pelicans
1
nba-nop-mia-2025-01-01
Pelicans vs. Heat
66,206,372
66,206,372
315b0170bc693b97b4705f1f5dd9de0384ec41ba
0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4
0xf87d0011de00a0983eeb71daff4781be696094de90641ef61cbe4d3ef4ca4ea4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0 4. Question:...
76ers
1
nba-phi-gsw-2025-01-02
76ers vs. Warriors
66,248,776
66,248,776
9a3d3bf2ab2ea83e8ee435155150f1b306799ad6
0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4
0x13044f50c2db7f4b70525119241096da76daaf3e8aef2436449cb8b0fd376cf5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0 4. Question:...
trail blazers
0.930912
nba-por-lal-2025-01-02
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers
66,262,938
66,262,938
adb64752c54ae3050eb2c794f8d5d5f616cebf61
0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4
0x46b20e8cce1e6f815bfa6ef4e2fdec4017c1a1892825f5190aac024db60d551f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0 4. Question:...
lakers
1
nba-atl-lal-2025-01-03
Hawks vs. Lakers
66,305,657
66,305,657
1dad7176e9c583fdb11f1d98806dab4f9e28ea4c
0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4
0xcc619e24714ed324f92437723c4ae5ed5fb726b06ee5ea52fd75ca9553d94b0b
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0 4. Question:...
celtics
1
nba-bos-hou-2025-01-03
Celtics vs. Rockets
66,305,657
66,305,657
8bc6a32121e93563e6d4a2955251260f9e3e17e0
0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4
0xd0a73dd5338b9f4685758f1fdcd0a52f5916381505b1668893fbe9dbb91f00c0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0 4. Question:...
knicks
1
nba-nyk-okc-2025-01-03
Knicks vs. Thunder
66,305,657
66,305,657
a71463c50e2983f90687cb2ac10a9ddb7a2dbae1
0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4
0x0ca80ab0d5b7c05fc4daad340a3cc5b115174c596da09a54f233bb444f7e5a7f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0 4. Question:...
bulls
1
nba-nyk-chi-2025-01-04
Knicks vs. Bulls
66,323,585
66,323,585