sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
d63435090de6beebc413b1ce9a33fd1e825f590d | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x59f7ccf8545192009c382929153428e6c4a0aca52a200522fecf374e9e3873ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | trail blazers | 0.996261 | nba-por-mil-2025-01-04 | Trail Blazers vs. Bucks | 66,323,585 | 66,323,585 |
4a6f362aadb22035258d22abbc494eaba1a3a632 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x74a4f98027d0df96f393c4b5ec32b4a5ce3a67945450c5b8553cf26fc56555c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | suns | 1 | nba-phx-ind-2025-01-04 | Suns vs. Pacers | 66,323,585 | 66,323,585 |
65db3dc7832654be23e3d134c4b73a182df83631 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0xad601a1f8529dcc5373bc3eec8d276a1c941a0db4ed757cc2517dabb0b377dfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | heat | 1 | nba-uta-mia-2025-01-04 | Jazz vs. Heat | 66,323,585 | 66,323,585 |
b33365ffde0d9f00a69e749bb7e7b16a471c3cd1 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0xc86edd5afcd6be49f4add4e3e66756e71e65221845c3e5485213f4aee7f495c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | spurs | 0.999986 | nba-den-sas-2025-01-04 | Nuggets vs. Spurs | 66,323,585 | 66,323,585 |
cf4440cc16ce40b5169fb3cec5360cd5f050de08 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x7511898790ca73b58ffa6edc1bb9e0af20c8eb06be03647b81762d52f98fef3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | warriors | 1 | nba-mem-gsw-2025-01-04 | Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 66,327,749 | 66,327,749 |
4fd7fe9c8c46f465e80ce9151245481c9e73ccc7 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0xb026b8390fa2304296f2820a74e724475d5d9867634029591b514e86f30b1f76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | hawks | 1 | nba-atl-lac-2025-01-04 | Hawks vs. Clippers | 66,327,749 | 66,327,749 |
b582901267205a4b2a1ed15a0a49b93ef2fbfe1b | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x2023a25321675b505e0ced19db9bc616573f7ecec1c8ae92111d6c33493ef2a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | lakers | 1 | nba-lal-hou-2025-01-05 | Lakers vs. Rockets | 66,382,972 | 66,382,972 |
c4e2c4c72c631ee336b967bb91d55b071edf319d | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x239e6b99a9b73ad1194630ef0940eebc5833fa6c227c70537cb5f38ae6154ce9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | celtics | 1 | nba-bos-okc-2025-01-05 | Celtics vs. Thunder | 66,382,972 | 66,382,972 |
bbbc0e038d3a82a726ab91080cceb3ffa895c531 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0xb38de0b7fea7f08ba0ead1e99c222a2d9ad2f39d83c5e63249f5d387ba79aead | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | jazz | 1 | nba-uta-orl-2025-01-05 | Jazz vs. Magic | 66,382,972 | 66,382,972 |
d50956ace5d5eaa9a4606683b54fc028f599f151 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0xcc1b36e6d242ae34fa16b5f1a3663c5c626a817c33eaf34b7a826cd324110a1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | wizards | 1 | nba-nop-was-2025-01-05 | Pelicans vs. Wizards | 66,382,972 | 66,382,972 |
97fea86637a4fa385388609c70fb4e45731ef6ab | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x38fc7f4edb28537731a0b977721df53bb0a7534cc282ed45b5c83c8e8fa4acbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | bulls | 1 | nba-sas-chi-2025-01-06 | Spurs vs. Bulls | 66,400,769 | 66,400,769 |
a355ce6e49aac479912d7fe3ab3b546d48f42e8d | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x647d21353fd0d91133c5c460c87706bec354d87f988156779e7f60d7c7dcf841 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | mavericks | 1 | nba-dal-mem-2025-01-06 | Mavericks vs. Grizzlies | 66,400,769 | 66,400,769 |
618c51030d5cd4a70dc3fe6ef7e582f511298ded | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x8cf4d788d8a5e7c917e2f113a34847a7978c80cd5f32ea1fdd15fb5c7757da98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | suns | 0.037934 | nba-phx-phi-2025-01-06 | Suns vs. 76ers | 66,400,769 | 66,400,769 |
2b103d6389ea4a9b9c03aea28fa2288234a866c9 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0x369f66a9bba07624fc3892b8a98324fc1f18f96e030dc0803596e74580df91b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | pelicans | 1 | nba-min-nop-2025-01-07 | Timberwolves vs. Pelicans | 66,471,406 | 66,471,406 |
ce34080470dde994e0dd21a238a5a3b0dea1ca55 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0xa728d3c87cb6f5c5960d9e771a7ebee78bc5aa6f6831b1a64ba18cfe51b28f56 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pacers vs. Kings | Event: nba-ind-sac-2024-12-22 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | nuggets | 1 | nba-bos-den-2025-01-07 | Celtics vs. Nuggets | 66,471,406 | 66,471,406 |
784522f821370574565e4035cd4f0dde72da2886 | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0xd1c95dbb34675b5893cfbe9df9323eb66b18928604ddd1e0c26aa2cb660f26b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spurs vs. Knicks | Event: nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Knicks vs. Wizards | Event: nba-nyk-was-2024-12-28 | Choice: wizards | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | hornets | 0.999996 | nba-phx-cha-2025-01-07 | Suns vs. Hornets | 66,471,406 | 66,471,406 |
8561d9ef91c1cf0817003e00e893acb9c1f1b86e | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0xe8b8416bb40c74511cbac6cfe4e267d186382aa6bf11d721d22159ecc18365de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Thunder vs. Hornets | Event: nba-okc-cha-2024-12-28 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Knicks vs. Wizards | Event: nba-nyk-was-2024-12-28 | Choice: wizards | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 76ers vs. Jazz | Event: nba-phi-uta-2024-12-28 | Choice: jazz | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question:... | jazz | 1 | nba-atl-uta-2025-01-07 | Hawks vs. Jazz | 66,471,406 | 66,471,406 |
2fef4d2da1cb9c4009658d8195a4db863bea093a | 0x0c2780245abb1df334641d97d5348f3e202cc8b4 | 0xf35ad0d1ed4ce5fc06c85e3fc008e4b19f603f562744e622ba2a03fa036c238e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Knicks vs. Wizards | Event: nba-nyk-was-2024-12-28 | Choice: wizards | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Jazz | Event: nba-phi-uta-2024-12-28 | Choice: jazz | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Suns vs. Warriors | Event: nba-phx-gsw-2024-12-28 | Choice: suns | Confidence: 1.0
4. Question: Clip... | lakers | 0.763902 | nba-lal-dal-2025-01-07 | Lakers vs. Mavericks | 66,471,406 | 66,471,406 |
5634a0d6e03b2a79feda533eec25f743c8431ed5 | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x02dc46f4354c1cc447577db82ba62cca1bda737bd67b73fe966ce1bfe580868f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
Event: fed-decision-in-september
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | 76,589,048 | 76,589,048 |
b50d88db47ab0539513ecac89f97d3572deb69da | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x5a0f9776be6c742291ec44debf3b4c56f6c3b9271e96b073eeb80ea6b38caeb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25?
Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output stric... | no | 0.99984 | epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | 78,220,794 | 78,220,794 |
d08d12645aac469d94893cb034cbf4194e12746f | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x2d0021ec44bed6e340c1b8bc11eb64a4cd46476f8757444068514777477ddd2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
Target market:
Question: Will Aston Villa... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-26? | 78,220,856 | 78,220,856 |
7267bd23a2c9ca4c945f342d6cf10e8317b21d41 | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x4126ce9dc772c3eb415bc5dca067e94dec405e811bd023200e37f8cd58c876de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | epl-ast-mac-2025-10-26 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26? | 78,220,866 | 78,220,866 |
727d8cdcd0ffbb6920152700afedc49e2b68ca31 | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0xb2671ef12566bcf376193aab6f5503d1d0d6502edc81482e92c9b42a2bf091bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | lal-rea-bar-2025-10-26 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? | 78,220,879 | 78,220,879 |
3b84363b60f9840b82fe946a215337cdf02bcefd | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x6f436f3f7ec57276fd5e234e96f309f95dec76963e5c5b8326a578aab07f4b94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | lal-rea-bar-2025-10-26 | Will Real Madrid vs. Barcelona end in a draw? | 78,220,917 | 78,220,917 |
4c7c57c2f24ab56e60fc4f5f94fab2c29f938e4a | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x473b561753e5a80e8d3c6de1d093da4640305b76d9d11486c13b7830a84d7c9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | lal-rea-bar-2025-10-26 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? | 78,220,961 | 78,220,961 |
035a35dec5cd451bdc4bd85060a1475e74a7dc4a | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x1c95745679413c53267d4969e85d2a666238f25d8238e4c5efbc0c5127776cd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-26? | 78,230,871 | 78,230,871 |
ede091d5d4f1f29b2cc61e05fd1a71ba58714266 | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x4bdf0155cbd6d59d298ec0ce3b6d6f70c1a0e542f935e457f8c08075627dc925 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | 78,230,874 | 78,230,874 |
a4792a93d6424ac559356b5bf1704c7d986b8441 | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x14a3dfeba8b22a32feb0f10763db68bc4d2abeb5bff90e9ae20de53793b35a1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025 | Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | 78,230,878 | 78,230,878 |
56650d1daf87eb44e7084936fcf2d84cb5bbfc74 | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x42d812af0840d50685b0aaa0cc0a4b3c07a680cd12a85d88a377558f3621c78c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | over-1pt8b-committed-to-the-megaeth-public-sale | Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | 78,403,629 | 78,403,629 |
f28db39eada1865b097eb1d0ac3aae6db4d69efd | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x53f82bd52566e30ae3f8131cb92095dd92ecdf2b0204af0edc226ee194e923fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-october | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | 78,403,633 | 78,403,633 |
c5136596877b634fbe847be415670033ac136d1e | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x6ef34d5c7937cb8a1eb22234ddce8fe3eb1595e1f35c7d4f2101c58f3506e580 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-october | No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | 78,403,646 | 78,403,646 |
1a985459dd50aa6f0c964cf7907482189db60a4f | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x4bcb2c1a03c2380c74d449aee1a09e46f5a96791cad0ce39147f3117451042a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Will Bangladesh win on 2025-11-13? | 78,986,898 | 78,986,898 |
e5e9dd24f517d5cad34b8ce0229f45555f050884 | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0xb699b5016fe7a00c69f52dbdab62b9467b60ff60c4b9c96caec35c3f0b288908 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Will Afghanistan win on 2025-11-13? | 78,986,901 | 78,986,901 |
5a8bf0cbddc9c83c3f9c5ab1c36b22b54339a513 | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0xd8d1f5655ded7cf49b8b6dbe2d91ac88a66eccfcd3ff0ee87c41ce16f1749245 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | uef-fra-ukr-2025-11-13 | Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-13? | 79,030,126 | 79,030,126 |
f069f2c7869bdc77c73c0610cde053f4924bc8f6 | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x2030062859d3a49527a2b3c7a2f570198a4a62b2302e4ac570bb8ef208fab2f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on November 16? | 79,138,038 | 79,138,038 |
3aa2e239be1a50b1debe42f1a88dda6c07f1b31d | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0xeef60f2c3ee6c4de28a61afcfcb909a67ea3a656961d49a5d250d52832c19da3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025? | 79,194,896 | 79,194,896 |
76bbbb602895c2c10819f221866524da9cc9747e | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0xcb42ce799c32e8f0bbe7df6a20396a7ecb1ca494316c5df0027ab89d941e1ca7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | 79,199,855 | 79,199,855 |
85afab637b287d53ca5fa896e302be08f2fe4ba0 | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x7606207fa90b12f85426e9f2b8c134ab32b6cac6de094a913d1b0fdd7cf7f835 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | yes | 0.999859 | who-will-win-the-synthetix-trading-competition | Will 风无向 Web3Feng win the Synthetix trading competition? | 79,310,853 | 79,310,853 |
461c2b57f1b383b999337e11efea34bdb5534009 | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x9048963e6e7b93915e81687f6357ae5d9447e375738edd01c9b83c8b6c8fb251 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | mls-mia-nyc-2025-11-29 | Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-11-29? | 79,707,889 | 79,707,889 |
80872deca9dfb8259bed00b4b76f3e45e4645432 | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x288567ee65eea1200d76a07959bbbee0c061533d27303cd8069b70ab2f99db66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-november-2025 | Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? | 79,734,304 | 79,734,304 |
492e0cd79206373c6235adf4287ea19935b5d6d7 | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x61d01d58cd96ff01b3088af71150d4342cdcd886dd3ec1e668ca60142425e7b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | mountain-west-championship-game-winner | Will Nevada win the 2025 Mountain West Conference Championship Game? | 79,951,802 | 79,951,802 |
e3b408e64524f96d8f3af0d82a27d08308113ed9 | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0xceee071751fe32843257b1b9011d8d6e99489c116a57fd7eeb2a806ca7fcc238 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | mountain-west-championship-game-winner | Will Fresno State win the 2025 Mountain West Conference Championship Game? | 79,951,806 | 79,951,806 |
9575ebcf7af2b29d0af6214bee1b3b5845b36192 | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0xec01d04351baee61f953f658832fe17188a92b26cdea8b460f8ae4f7b1ade3dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | mountain-west-championship-game-winner | Will San Jose State win the 2025 Mountain West Conference Championship Game? | 79,951,810 | 79,951,810 |
d15d34422975e4525ae89364a022be01a3765426 | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0xdfc98d85ba6007b1e65b998ce29d4211d1eb848a5b7afa9b44421960ca226927 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | 2025-acc-championship-game-winner | Will SMU win the 2025 ACC Conference Championship Game? | 79,995,810 | 79,995,810 |
c464638b4b606c30294a1a12b69705bed343c9fa | 0x0c394276d4f728767c03693148dac6026fd58213 | 0x573f6ec1b78dddd20381cc393d0d182ff7da5df92393ca900cb191d30945aabb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? | Event: epl-che-sun-2025-10-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9998398108111138
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-... | no | 1 | 2025-big-10-championship-game-winner | Will Northwestern win the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game? | 79,995,815 | 79,995,815 |
08d128e086ddbbb9157d1d846e9bb583ae0b4fcc | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0x9fda5a00174aa8c2e4c6471c9a99be2b15933cb2bf79fb989f30849b2207ffac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?
Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | 71,631,095 | 71,631,095 |
f11182858560e0b25a11d30269c6bdc8fd0cf927 | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0x016c34b4c6a79906694f96e7478cd66b9a08e359bbe8ace3645d1976300be4f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28?
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSO... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | 73,335,649 | 73,335,649 |
55ed2a4004fa88093dd608e7c2446edea957f54b | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0x801bf4827389c582eb9d4efd69122f43f291c92e284a700469159127367f3ebf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1?
Event:... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-1 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | 73,457,295 | 73,457,295 |
85d0a20cefa85db125371c561e96b8e53c2b051f | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0x2ac67596bee1082ef6a3fe29891eb55df5c88b961fa1775dff7bb7bce19c80ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-8 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 8? | 73,739,233 | 73,739,233 |
e77574ba7e1f89219322b4ada35c8c75464fd1b4 | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0x03b3ce72125a1311b8438c46e214c547d8711fc42e9bec0600ec597222e8505d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up... | up | 0.000007 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-july-9 | Ethereum Up or Down on July 9? | 73,771,372 | 73,771,372 |
e6b26a4392743351c6e5ea2bfbdef3a3dbcb1494 | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0x47f121006637277a78da9bb03eb14b021c9a1b177af84a7b749742fe5b5a84b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up... | up | 0.000001 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-9 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 9? | 73,773,583 | 73,773,583 |
cade5a9036772e94c63362f8b90bf2a257985bc8 | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0x844db36ffe334ab66d3c0a703a32bc0e05e5c9c25fef25caf49d69481e0bb7e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up... | down | 0.397318 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-july-10 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 10? | 73,777,224 | 73,777,224 |
489462e97cd6b4d7a6ddc5bdb974a61cc2235bfb | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0x43a04885b706b5c1d7f36eee7949b9934fa134c6e178fe90b004521e210de4e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-11-4am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 11, 4AM ET | 73,830,943 | 73,830,943 |
52d7a237fd7cd627b9753614ad42cf175219dc79 | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0xdda582b6262f4f15a6294eaa7fd941aae33b0b1c0ef4eaa5f31d2b5a2e90e804 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-11-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4AM ET | 73,830,963 | 73,830,963 |
145aad9f42efcd7c1b7e732f8f0e8fa8749c94e4 | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0x2b5450274e2989429267eeb61708e38f774688110313078e4e5ea8f06d650f2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-11-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12PM ET | 73,841,741 | 73,841,741 |
c16923b42b8ad07413a6599d0838ee111864d33d | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0xd383368830a5deb556d800119471e1769fa10e360ef215cdc8723a4e68bfca04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-11-12pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 11, 12PM ET | 73,841,748 | 73,841,748 |
284e8faae88f130a209c824e15277e7978983080 | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0xb2930c435cd484e471d5a71fc497c02ca17b86d9bba78157320243f330fbc9b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-11-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 1PM ET | 73,844,498 | 73,844,498 |
8c7402484b4ecb9b18f1348700ba7738a793bd75 | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0x1d6c7f8c810063a98c4ff62576efb2f58828e07b9b9ce95ebf868cb1ba3c2938 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up... | down | 0.000462 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-11-1pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 11, 1PM ET | 73,844,504 | 73,844,504 |
2ff08c7c3c2e4f3316d8cb42c2b7d06d1b1ec83c | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0x71e10b493b94f65c5db8f12ebc0bad0aa317e5a7fb318e26e528902f69910099 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-11-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 2PM ET | 73,844,851 | 73,844,851 |
8633dc93f958c5691010e7b5ffedfa0b55d4aec2 | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0xb7b132445377319093b44030fcd51c57d894caa10de54eed251bcd41c06c0cd8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-11-2pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 11, 2PM ET | 73,844,910 | 73,844,910 |
d2fed8db7c14bee1f2c33f039607201fbe96cb3e | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0x42604487e350719328ff3f16f5eb6b569eb62bea1928ec21402d7bcf9ebc1f66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up... | down | 0.000103 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-11-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3PM ET | 73,846,616 | 73,846,616 |
f8d45f4363f1e0645403685f9b4e03eb10a0f8b4 | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0x799805a11a24207a7b8fef8946fb40ec69c18101ca89f8bf38eba72eae7cf2a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up... | up | 0.000128 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-11-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 11, 3PM ET | 73,846,625 | 73,846,625 |
351f803b1b980face24dda73cf02b5941ec9667e | 0x0c89083d2267f6a8d60bb48ce0f305e821419d7f | 0x9785399bd644e06da3a0d67a500ce459d0826cc5f0d623deef5ca9b3b7558311 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-115 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-28 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1? | Event: bitcoin-up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-11-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5PM ET | 73,850,172 | 73,850,172 |
bbe65a11dc9090ed701e6a99ea181a882d71a857 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x10858ad2c19d927b935778aad415a9154f4b4c7f0d73d7562b6af43595257034 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?
Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | 60,306,497 | 60,306,497 |
16315ab84da2f0efadde96c2532e91db0b8dd3e3 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x9e9071636d176562592a98dfede865385ba0cff7864cfa01f0479ca6e9e26e1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Event: democratic-nominee-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for... | yes | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,306,497 | 60,306,497 |
83b1e2f0c5250032fc173ee737f20400e6d8c1be | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xbde022015de39953fda46b738a9cf4804944759468345ca7607a936df1ab6d7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question... | yes | 1 | womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will Spain win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | 60,306,497 | 60,306,497 |
7d6ad77175e312af7b64b0ae6984d4fdb0dfab9a | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xfaa174467cf53629d3e8310284dd0633743459453f7f659c112431584ad12bab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will Morocco win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | 60,306,497 | 60,306,497 |
dd0c0507742c442ee9fc1003c87cc4dd23e96343 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x1ba906e40b7700d097f8a63f545a0268a7c3050d6fd27cce14cb292c34c4a8e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | 62,483,520 | 62,483,520 |
8f25134f7c569f3bc4febaa887e0fed03e4df16a | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x21381e1df184460ffb9bab6aa53f702c27ed21897d74cee355526f26d79ef5a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | womens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will the USA win Gold in Women's Basketball? | 62,483,520 | 62,483,520 |
ebacf6fe2326a50a3aec7612567288825f17dc63 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x229698a09fd7f46161a64fbf7983cdff7f1bdbf67f8e9c954a7ac5992be32a3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | 62,483,520 | 62,483,520 |
24cff5aceff58001d3c87377e101b7379576b7f2 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x2bccec1b9a266f43af1d8c785725a44100c73a2d632daa9c31b59f0d86109f55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | epl-tottenham-vs-brentford | Will Tottenham beat Brentford? | 62,483,520 | 62,483,520 |
14db88852eec8fc6a2df0d6e4ba94ff79c3807ba | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x32e9aafc8f722cefe064ede579c2affe972ae28dbec4752b29206fd9bced0045 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will France win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | 62,483,520 | 62,483,520 |
4367e43e3f8a1289a08d298666933c79ea1b9ab3 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x47217950cc02ab42fc2d3973fd3e85a22972d37c359ccdcb8f5ebe43d3f083e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | epl-liverpool-vs-bournemouth | Will Liverpool beat Bournemouth? | 62,483,520 | 62,483,520 |
95be49a3c24002db1e5215ef50bc318d016ebc7f | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x5894405d04d5b923f36c63dfc88042620930d62417a580f47ffc7cc32c5520ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Will the U.S. win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | 62,483,520 | 62,483,520 |
5627a62945781d961cd58d814e90d91cff7eacd2 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x604699c465b190fdd1929338d726616411ff3cf6123fb0d604dda0181d34976c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | 62,483,520 | 62,483,520 |
0ab6a23e00dda78f0ed67093f7aa109598d451b0 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x8ab275841ef87e185ae28c228c85a7a58028f3cacb3f1e17989dfdd5c9b4f959 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | 4x100m-relay-winner-w | Will the USA win gold in the Women’s 4x100m Relay? | 62,483,520 | 62,483,520 |
cc470e7862a163636b9508098063ef4ea8fa5dc6 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x1e8c0214ea10b3580d9bc18845184da89713bc9e4797a66e94d13f4ff4c5cdf0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | epl-brighton-vs-nottingham-forest | Will Brighton beat Nottingham Forest? | 62,483,523 | 62,483,523 |
fc04e4d782bfd47d6d963b769f241230f1f49900 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x6153e5def1788e35bc42be5120358ff3d440b655b25410148f53f2b4283a4977 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | ucl-barcelona-vs-young-boys | Will Barcelona beat Young Boys? | 62,668,642 | 62,668,642 |
f8d6ac0f8fa051e02681bbe6720354eccea712f1 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x82df938a34ae69d5394b1bd5df4e01c59ab2958ff386ed1597393c55054721fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | 62,668,642 | 62,668,642 |
ce1847e3b6e7c0903799552c16ca0cc41b416713 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x884385a47d5b9a7b5078e66d391d9409d1f9ccf87868d0ae896dae8fce7407d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | ucl-slovan-bratislava-vs-manchester-city | Will Manchester City beat Slovan Bratislava? | 62,668,642 | 62,668,642 |
2fb9352b8143ff093e22a003767b6d9fa4ad8286 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xa6313db3db91239aba8d72fba6cc307040f421f25828ad28fd6bae1cad161d83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | ucl-inter-milan-vs-red-star-belgrade | Will Inter Milan beat Red Star Belgrade? | 62,668,642 | 62,668,642 |
c32a6ac63d40c2babc1fc8efb98ce17b1ce9b300 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xd21ed8f60af44801db0784045bc31b88447d6afaa5683dfd458f70c7ae63c7e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | ucl-arsenal-vs-paris-saint-germain | Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Arsenal? | 62,668,642 | 62,668,642 |
05dc255ee52e0711694b753aa202e3411de74104 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xee5ea7e53b823d7f6f7935abc528a707dd4af96d33068cfe8f81ec18f3a26e33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | ucl-aston-villa-vs-bayern-munich | Will Bayern Munich beat Aston Villa? | 62,668,642 | 62,668,642 |
98e0dc6a0b565a08ab11ffb0a3bcd07e78470eac | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x1d199ade867c1c4d3a61101bcc48933f2aa330eeff51685c007737c56ef6c840 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | epl-brighton-vs-tottenham | Will Brighton beat Tottenham? | 62,859,244 | 62,859,244 |
0a9520fcda8dd5c89226848cb8bc8c7f5a4dc5a9 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x356d555a8a92b5acba4896191a47f793ee7e07901d9a12f100cbd1bd75ae562d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | epl-aston-villa-vs-manchester-united | Will Aston Villa beat Manchester United? | 62,859,244 | 62,859,244 |
446e0a14c159a7c358333ceaef5a09aca81cccec | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x39af89511ebd36a29d23ea83f128d5141fb21c9b6917c6e8a4cbe57fdce15b1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? | 62,859,244 | 62,859,244 |
db207e2825c0e5b29d5a17eafbb84129f56ae31e | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xb34c038ea9d047cc4f2c55c4e57b20a14825a50bb93a7e1d85b74100720b17ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | epl-chelsea-vs-nottingham-forest | Will Chelsea beat Nottingham Forest? | 62,859,244 | 62,859,244 |
4fed2188417143478013e981c2c06c5605e61e86 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xbd2cda8debc8a7725f5da591a6e66f662cf6481470d883576723efebd14c3697 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? | 62,859,244 | 62,859,244 |
47456e9e3eb509b7d0743983d11c0467c8ab1771 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x7eaf6fd593219a098b7e6cb9351ad242b305ea409f934746e0c39fba3b37e066 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | no | 1 | epl-liv-che-2024-10-20 | Will Liverpool vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 63,349,309 | 63,349,309 |
6be396bb038c72f4b8229844ee167c4fb51d34e9 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xd847e371920c5197c5ad4b49d07c2ca17f078fbe5bc915c8627be9a9a63f7117 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | 63,349,309 | 63,349,309 |
e0f91e74f870e1bc4d2bd6ed2fcb5039c568018d | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xf983afc2f0e1f91a75e4d47fbb4e194304ef967cbbe39b511534a35e9d3b5e75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | worlds-2024-lol-winner | Will Hanwha Life Esports win LoL Worlds 2024? | 63,349,309 | 63,349,309 |
567a63cebc8600e00df26a5c6dd807b3a8091b1e | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x0c798ad61e5175c56bac958b7a8f4a2d04fb3acba46cf94b9556f913930a1b82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | ucl-stade-brestois-vs-bayer-leverkusen | Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Stade Brestois? | 63,482,798 | 63,482,798 |
51ec1a979d532cd395f7741b2e6f3be61dfa86bf | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x3f7a1c042c520808128f62f75a8aa23551311c5ba8a959d50c52d25abb8d7e4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | ucl-atletico-madrid-vs-losc-lille | Will Atletico Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | 63,482,798 | 63,482,798 |
79930bcd77e41dc7ca134e98b4c67b41053142a4 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x710aba2c61e16b197e3dc0a2e1c8682f5af286e1de249170f381eda6123dbed1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain ... | yes | 1 | ucl-ac-milan-vs-club-brugge | Will AC Milan beat Club Brugge? | 63,482,798 | 63,482,798 |
0b4f4ab760f0c2aefd337daa6b61ddc7b8f0e4fb | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x87d5903041ee76476a9e50e076d826175965a97d2b9c8fdd900d903094bc21bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Morocc... | yes | 1 | ucl-manchester-city-vs-sparta-praha | Will Manchester City beat Sparta Praha? | 63,482,798 | 63,482,798 |
2a52c7c3107005f0aaf29a1102445c64c377a00d | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xa3520731b17ec9c2f32f81a69956527ef9941124e0046f30acec7301c8e5dfc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Morocco win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the USA win Gold i... | yes | 1 | ucl-young-boys-vs-inter-milan | Will Inter Milan beat Young Boys? | 63,482,798 | 63,482,798 |
b2f9a723fde38c1481b9c17c3e4c7d669f656880 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xc06f75dc0bf061e5ba0a5ab5121b8a73a9d960fd2d4e5dab3e0dc700e711387e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Morocco win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Wom... | yes | 1 | ucl-monaco-vs-red-star-belgrade | Will Monaco beat Red Star Belgrade | 63,482,798 | 63,482,798 |
00949e00829405d2261771ae7aaa230a630ab4e9 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xf67accf78543d6fc851965d26d391e8d2c4373c08f35784caf3f2bab10c3db97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Women's Basketball? | Event: womens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: USA wins the most gold meda... | yes | 1 | ucl-arsenal-vs-shakhtar-donetsk | Will Arsenal beat Shakhtar Donetsk? | 63,482,798 | 63,482,798 |
7dbb1e48db22227e6cbf6c7f0e9faf58dd832319 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x1f5661a33bedb921f8f5d48982900a4ea021772025cdf4594fff73d7dec41be0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Women's Basketball? | Event: womens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-sou-2024-10-26 | Will Man City win on 2024-10-26? | 63,878,066 | 63,878,066 |
3b9e6c0cd590d9e0aa4e215dcccb579b703c832e | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x6d7a40de5387ed03369e9247454d57d96438f9ae5e2ddb2af3dc74b62c667f5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham beat Brentford? | Event: epl-tottenham-vs-brentford | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold i... | yes | 1 | worlds-2024-lol-winner | Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | 63,878,066 | 63,878,066 |
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