sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
bd9472df7e2bff5f3c06caa081d4fcc13f6bbd75 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xa8f90f9794c12b75a761f5e51d5c7b8edd6658c0c8df3a7417c2a97fed0e1c4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat Brentford? | Event: epl-tottenham-vs-brentford | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Bournemouth? | Event: epl-li... | yes | 1 | worlds-2024-lol-winner | Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2024? | 63,878,066 | 63,878,066 |
a902837884bc2ff482405ac3d938271db07f1a37 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? | Event: mens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Bournemouth? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-bournemouth | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the U.S. win Gold in Women's Football (... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,985,628 | 63,985,628 |
62aac507f8c6d2e3b5fb7874c0ca97ed7613643c | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x03d1d0d81a286acf53b88bcb72129db10eb4d30ea6366a59821c48a24b97b9f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat Bournemouth? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-bournemouth | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the U.S. win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | 65,223,203 | 65,223,203 |
89dd5b00a530471fe25e36730ad10485bc268357 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x2b4fe7706b1c66ef2095894c944fd920e39fc0099f5ce6847e40c2b029b2e11a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? | Event: womens-soccer-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-bou-2024-11-09 | Will Bournemouth win on 2024-11-09? | 65,223,203 | 65,223,203 |
0c8535ae8dbed81910cd7b33dd0a7a31332bb0e2 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x47ae26645cc7d8df99be59bf00895499c254362609186159f96cb90b42bba3fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the USA win gold in the Women’s 4x100m Relay? | Event: 4x100m-relay-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton bea... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-ips-2024-11-10 | Will Spurs win on 2024-11-10? | 65,223,203 | 65,223,203 |
b247d14194c971dc86f1966983e2f678e1d75e53 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x7b30559109e5a8edb0aea12bf209e7242328d0f650a876dfb39b0d5e5d345160 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win gold in the Women’s 4x100m Relay? | Event: 4x100m-relay-winner-w | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona beat Young Boys? | Event:... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | 65,223,203 | 65,223,203 |
06ffe552e02f5d8a68268fd1589d6218eb8ce549 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x8a2c3cb71596cf7d30060b285598988d8c3169bc8f5cf99f200595ffb3a80e39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona beat Young Boys? | Event: ucl-barcelona-vs-young-boys | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-l... | yes | 1 | epl-not-new-2024-11-10 | Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-10? | 65,223,203 | 65,223,203 |
d3d2e31112ec7ec404e01feb58bd51999f45e529 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x92ab5e178f52b7af61c7976451130558cc157feb016afa3f790e74b614250b6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona beat Young Boys? | Event: ucl-barcelona-vs-young-boys | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City beat Slovan Bratislava? | Event: ucl-slo... | yes | 1 | solana-all-time-high-wen | Solana all time high in Q4? | 65,223,203 | 65,223,203 |
58e16e7d56c8af545e56beead4dc434743e7593c | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x7163f98615e577c3220ce47ea37460a544b52384194495f319d5ab943aabfc75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Slovan Bratislava? | Event: ucl-slovan-bratislava-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Red Star Belg... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | 65,551,879 | 65,551,879 |
b3e4f4ef5567170dc053c83e0c00275f80af5ad0 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xb80c1a80fe898db0ed0f0349f371caabc23bf2a7c11436f5c8818985319994fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Slovan Bratislava? | Event: ucl-slovan-bratislava-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Red Star Belgrade? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-red-star-belgrade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germ... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-bou-2024-12-08 | Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-08? | 65,551,879 | 65,551,879 |
5badc7c7f84c89bdf0b83727f76dfe947359f265 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x59d6aa392a4d929b332d82afb6aadeb6a62db1b161056683b118a41dda254126 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Red Star Belgrade? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-red-star-belgrade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-arsenal-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Aston Vil... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-wes-2024-12-16 | Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw? | 65,598,265 | 65,598,265 |
0cbbce851077d3daa6fd16fb84cb7979bc716664 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xa007f6c22fa1cf1c54ccb0a485e4b168dc7df63a7ecbab195ac0763712f37adc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-arsenal-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Aston Villa? | Event: ucl-aston-villa-vs-bayern-munich | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton beat Tottenham? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | 66,222,950 | 66,222,950 |
23808b96e40ef8cdb3a83730cee7682f71384588 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xb09684e11fb40f40cfb2fec4a8e08fe2b021a82b0803756a90f04e1364efa94f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Aston Villa? | Event: ucl-aston-villa-vs-bayern-munich | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton beat Tottenham? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-aston... | yes | 1 | ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? | 66,222,950 | 66,222,950 |
700f807e8f3d57a2be1a591a94dffdb78491536e | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x4de75fae6de432cf807ca5003e712e397ef3f406b03ab9e44ba796a781a854a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton beat Tottenham? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-tottenham | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-aston-villa-vs-manchester-united | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as S... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-lei-2025-01-04 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-04? | 66,741,056 | 66,741,056 |
80f198d6d698e40f9c59db20c04a46c648073df2 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x52fcf6a6eacd203d4f30049614273a57fb8a0b5f2f4ef73e646e3085a1835fba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Manchester United? | Event: epl-aston-villa-vs-manchester-united | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-mun-2025-01-05 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05? | 66,741,056 | 66,741,056 |
1b7bc4b62cff5d844af2a7f29fa13d6c7a9b21fc | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x651c35b6bb1e812e616b8d286f57b09efd6e5b125dda48740f9172a41c5254d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the HBO documen... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-eve-2025-01-04 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-01-04? | 66,741,056 | 66,741,056 |
db6e0cf1dd9cdee284e5d3c13d74b41cfe9e4aa1 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xc956b10a339271f45125c65a99c6afba4ce7a9105d38006442360f69014c5e60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-chelsea-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Che... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | 66,741,056 | 66,741,056 |
7eb6397b5361fd4c0e69837c56c582b529cac6b3 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x4a2c8997fb1b4e516c4f6ae9f28cca95ae71087a1460dce8a0f940026ac00334 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024-10-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10... | yes | 1 | epl-new-wol-2025-01-15 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-15? | 66,881,209 | 66,881,209 |
40a63e04353c8ea21b587e816b1940d6b2482056 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x549ee2b624254781d763418896cf657d5f52abceb5226d71d2b59461627b4ec9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-che-2024-10-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hanwha Life Esports win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-202... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-bri-2025-01-16 | Will Brighton win on 2025-01-16? | 66,881,209 | 66,881,209 |
ce1f4f1630872ac37ed550d810341693880631c0 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xbc45b14fbceef98b20a10ea4965d1ba67faca3d9dfa9dc9588845eea862e168a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hanwha Life Esports win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Stade Brestois? | Event: ucl-stad... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-ast-2025-01-15 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-15? | 66,881,209 | 66,881,209 |
74cff0099f422c9e2e9299dfa6d6cc678202fff2 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xeaf91cc5030aa77662c0d349aa9178c10c7255bf217f3bf972844c85dd251efb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hanwha Life Esports win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Stade Brestois? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-bayer-leverkusen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid beat LOSC Lil... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-tot-2025-01-15 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-15? | 66,881,209 | 66,881,209 |
5e55e26e798cd374f1f3c57359ea7f3ba122d5a0 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x3d52674e91b1354d230d528421a224c3a492ddb975469078b71c88680bb396f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Stade Brestois? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-bayer-leverkusen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-atletico-madrid-vs-losc-lille | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AC Milan beat Club Brugge?... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-tot-2025-01-19 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-19? | 67,295,361 | 67,295,361 |
03e5823f5bce95601661182a1886fa2acd894620 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x822022058e92704af48a6a1184f02c93c5108c4ac44f2ed5260dd114f9fed9f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-atletico-madrid-vs-losc-lille | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan beat Club Brugge? | Event: ucl-ac-milan-vs-club-brugge | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sparta Praha? | Event: ucl-... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-mac-2025-01-19 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-19? | 67,295,361 | 67,295,361 |
118ba09fc2a1ac0ed47ab718f7067cd6c96122a8 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x9f3a0c78c0969ca40c2c23655cebf8065aa2fb61fba347b4cd832ae0d6e52e0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan beat Club Brugge? | Event: ucl-ac-milan-vs-club-brugge | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sparta Praha? | Event: ucl-manchester-city-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Young Boys? | Event: ucl-yo... | yes | 1 | epl-che-wol-2025-01-20 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-20? | 67,295,361 | 67,295,361 |
3690b45e7aa4b6e539b7d485cd695771a3473ddf | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x0ccb9edfc40ca89d099e078f4a34ce0abbe840259f55a838b7e478ef7e69d7e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Sparta Praha? | Event: ucl-manchester-city-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Young Boys? | Event: ucl-young-boys-vs-inter-milan | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Monaco beat Red Star Belgrade | Event: u... | yes | 1 | ucl-bayern-munich-vs-slovan-bratislava | Will Bayern Munich beat Slovan Bratislava? | 67,361,269 | 67,361,269 |
85864c0e03a24f44e1fffdec749e58ea9730b628 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x14f42cc226e4e301a0e0a1f4d3ff1255aa5627267d0cd61c01a7b364ddbbe55e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Young Boys? | Event: ucl-young-boys-vs-inter-milan | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Monaco beat Red Star Belgrade | Event: ucl-monaco-vs-red-star-belgrade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal beat Shakhtar Donetsk? | Event: ucl-arsen... | yes | 1 | ucl-girona-vs-arsenal | Will the match between Girona and Arsenal end in a draw? | 67,361,269 | 67,361,269 |
d972f0453cadc556f0d4330f5c89f434c26c6108 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x3ca056f9882c42353a7d2a39ac8bb1cccaa19b9d8bb7294bbefc4c9c89580a09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Monaco beat Red Star Belgrade | Event: ucl-monaco-vs-red-star-belgrade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal beat Shakhtar Donetsk? | Event: ucl-arsenal-vs-shakhtar-donetsk | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-26? | Event: epl-mac-... | no | 1 | ucl-rb-salzburg-vs-atletico-madrid | Will RB Salzburg beat Atletico Madrid? | 67,361,269 | 67,361,269 |
ab613c74703d5f34d01e1a418c104f0c3c654f94 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x52b8eafb657cf9ee3206a13be0bf551d31d129ba4f6b4475ad663728581bebc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal beat Shakhtar Donetsk? | Event: ucl-arsenal-vs-shakhtar-donetsk | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-26? | Event: epl-mac-sou-2024-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner ... | yes | 1 | ucl-manchester-city-vs-club-brugge | Will Manchester City beat Club Brugge? | 67,361,269 | 67,361,269 |
39e863202713e5b6eb527a075de4560ebfc1e275 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x61820bdcf957141b3213d2a60ad9b8a808a8226ca89479be9baa30f6fa1eff71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-26? | Event: epl-mac-sou-2024-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes... | yes | 1 | ucl-borussia-dortmund-vs-shakhtar-donetsk | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Shakhtar Donetsk? | 67,361,269 | 67,361,269 |
ff35d25e4f9116d586f78b0d62b0a07bbd62f18f | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x685cfe5dab22704f3fc55bfd0cf891704fd4f781633edf64539e7ca42a31c611 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential... | yes | 1 | ucl-aston-villa-vs-celtic | Will Aston Villa beat Celtic? | 67,361,269 | 67,361,269 |
190fc87a6fb5ce0c37f352238fdd5cce5223174a | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x6c59cf128fce389d86d5c3eab83ef8a87a9840f03c4de3df1ff0eb161e18b2aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2024? | Event: worlds-2024-lol-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Eve... | no | 1 | ucl-stade-brestois-vs-real-madrid | Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | 67,361,269 | 67,361,269 |
c03aa80a138c4b53bae8c078fc829041a932c5c1 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x8ac98c10676ba2e6d3371676e3158d7cdcde8f4a9cf87fd9bf985c2aead2c07f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-11-09? |... | yes | 1 | ucl-bayer-leverkusen-vs-sparta-praha | Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Sparta Praha? | 67,361,269 | 67,361,269 |
5f6b916d51b0f06fd1c0aec429e1d62190cd5b66 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xa4286dc0e7517c25e351ed8d08ebef01bb48696694eda668d111e71cca66df55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bre-bou-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-tot-ips-2024-11-10 | Choic... | yes | 1 | ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-ac-milan | Will the match between Dinamo Zagreb and AC Milan end in a draw? | 67,361,269 | 67,361,269 |
43fb7e27cc5643a3b8788e1ea631ccf2324d753e | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xba8f2226ce962ed3e1fecf588d1ae9c2cbdab3120bffa4f91f6759317cf910f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bre-bou-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-tot-ips-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice... | yes | 1 | ucl-barcelona-vs-atalanta | Will Barcelona beat Atalanta? | 67,361,269 | 67,361,269 |
38f534d1485ef750e2b12ddfc0b05b20852bc900 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x04dbe85cf31a4198d8bd414aa18d7868ab9987701a035536ab7e151aeb31970a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-tot-ips-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-not-new-2024-11-10 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | epl-new-ful-2025-02-01 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-01? | 68,035,091 | 68,035,091 |
1be7c9c5dc1648773965ac626db73e64d6ad6ebc | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x42f84d28c6a4b69882131da7240e1f158e51c7f8663bde1cc03b551746ddf96a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-not-new-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana all time high in Q4? | Event: solana-all-time-high-wen | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | 68,035,091 | 68,035,091 |
d048744fa09a35775f4ed74c2c83abe458fe3ae7 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x3b50032646e20987a7fd310cfc82095aef7b50b9a7165d31cfbfc61217e0e670 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-not-new-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Solana all time high in Q4? | Event: solana-all-time-high-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | epl-che-sou-2025-02-25 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-25? | 68,998,914 | 68,998,914 |
a485d1af4bd08bf1888aaec6590ff1b581aa396e | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x94c8411e32d3e62ea3094a6b7df7ff84bca85d27a9b50a0ddc52f8bac04b342c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana all time high in Q4? | Event: solana-all-time-high-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ips-bou-2024-12-08 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-new-2025-02-26 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-26? | 68,998,914 | 68,998,914 |
016c7242c755da39c114b03305ed7ae32cb2d7ae | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xb6fd27f5f8fb1a02f4ed1824ed9b0db2b5102d577a9ec4881de024b4c0ab1d71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ips-bou-2024-12-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-wes-2024-... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-ips-2025-02-26 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-02-26? | 68,998,914 | 68,998,914 |
1751aa06b1d264ba6072c7d5d568337a797ec5ad | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xd3128bce2cfd79336e681810618a1d14e94d336e6917413e17b3ff3e75b61faa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ips-bou-2024-12-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-wes-2024-12-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-... | yes | 1 | epl-not-ars-2025-02-26 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-26? | 68,998,914 | 68,998,914 |
cbf7964ef80c09865a0b17d72f4ccaf6139a201a | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x7b6062c5febea6c3963d6355678c3004dad0151b169c7f362dbf4a17cb78bba0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-wes-2024-12-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-... | yes | 1 | uel-mun-rso-2025-03-13 | Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-03-13? | 69,246,322 | 69,246,322 |
ed7315ddd802ab465ff1b050f3bae8f1a1f62ce3 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xa65856f6fad08f24d4644ebeeaa8ad24dfc50908f7e86f382f47f17d892da319 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-ast-lei-2025-01-04 ... | yes | 1 | uel-tot-az-2025-03-13 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-13? | 69,246,322 | 69,246,322 |
39c722184d310ea1b7a9eabf893c0988741a6b68 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x11a71f51f620dc30aba9c2c087b44666be683840d5df9ca27a40dc60d679b790 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-ast-lei-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05? | Event: epl-liv-mun-2025-01-0... | yes | 1 | epl-not-mun-2025-04-01 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-01? | 70,129,930 | 70,129,930 |
e4656183104a59cd2a57294a9bb6ef36831a6254 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x130ceb9fec2b69491404cc5e56c7740d0c54b0e3761ddce90533fbfaf2131d57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-ast-lei-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05? | Event: epl-liv-mun-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bou-eve-2025-01-04 |... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-new-2025-04-07 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-07? | 70,129,930 | 70,129,930 |
fa7fbd6417bc7e19afa343b4077305c63be7b59c | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x3f2b3a183c9621537c0bdac0ac774a63d037b5e58320d68a95755c1dd766c905 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05? | Event: epl-liv-mun-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bou-eve-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01... | yes | 1 | ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-09? | 70,129,930 | 70,129,930 |
cda9ca771146ccc1c4dcc2313c60613e84461c9f | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x8c253843d9e80261899e8e4e27ddda49088c425963786db54cb3863b971e9e0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bou-eve-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-15? | Event: epl-new-wol-2025-01... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-ful-2025-04-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-01? | 70,129,930 | 70,129,930 |
7b98f80a3416e82ab94ce109deb593ee11f624cd | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xc044969b32938e2b4a794eeef8a8cbd093051a75b6351f379e38cb6d7f917610 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-15? | Event: epl-new-wol-2025-01-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-16? | Event: epl-ips-bri-2025-01-16... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-ast-2025-04-09 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-09? | 70,129,930 | 70,129,930 |
c33dabfb2bd907937de8b1a7574a27b185fe28ed | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x1123bbed32e4b275fc688fe651fc2967f07fdd9bcb3b56f890e0024d0a6d944a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-15? | Event: epl-new-wol-2025-01-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-16? | Event: epl-ips-bri-2025-01-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-15? | Event: epl-eve-ast-2025-01-15 | Ch... | yes | 1 | uel-ran-ath-2025-04-10 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-04-10? | 70,969,191 | 70,969,191 |
3930870183668788579250985fb110835a0158c4 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x2a085b3155e80b4b4189ccaf36427f2e31d0cd43114e3fe163d281acaaa98c39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-16? | Event: epl-ips-bri-2025-01-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-15? | Event: epl-eve-ast-2025-01-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-15? | Event: epl-ars-tot-2025-01-15 | Ch... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-wes-2025-04-13 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-13? | 70,969,191 | 70,969,191 |
8e4b82362ba84bc91dfbefa0cb5396931ba5981e | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x486bfa956c8f009a314aedc893d63bf026bb0f5c63d27b5fad88cbe0079c65fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-15? | Event: epl-eve-ast-2025-01-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-15? | Event: epl-ars-tot-2025-01-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-eve-tot-2025-01-19 | C... | yes | 1 | uel-tot-fra-2025-04-10 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-04-10? | 70,969,191 | 70,969,191 |
fadff0943a1bb3ffc6488795879b2bfb11083939 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x4d9eb85bc54e4a52d8cf181fbb34015373a9f75b47d8778ba2e2733febc1f107 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-15? | Event: epl-ars-tot-2025-01-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-eve-tot-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-ips-mac-2025-01-19... | yes | 1 | epl-che-ips-2025-04-13 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-04-13? | 70,969,191 | 70,969,191 |
79f6c894a4742afda3b77e7ebdd70133db5415e5 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x79e3b601da5c99f34dadb2e73d00ddde68c3b3b4fe2573348d27d3ca698e5416 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-eve-tot-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-ips-mac-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-20? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-01-20 |... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-cry-2025-04-12 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-12? | 70,969,191 | 70,969,191 |
424135f980bb9f6fe29949906b1e351bf255bc10 | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0x98c8a829db98c7625c3d9040b05f089867a1fa56f886d7593eb0ea0026781a2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-19? | Event: epl-ips-mac-2025-01-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-20? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-01-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Slovan Bratislava? | Event: ucl-bayern-muni... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-bre-2025-04-12 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-12? | 70,969,191 | 70,969,191 |
d9e3ece6fe6f549eb6a0c1cc2f868e209b67161e | 0x0cca3f8f2d8d59ce01ff8a295f3616f570e91788 | 0xb9d9bb1757737008adf3fb7134e55e1b452cff5909229fabaa1e9b7fdeb8fc1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-20? | Event: epl-che-wol-2025-01-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Slovan Bratislava? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-slovan-bratislava | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between Girona and Arsenal end in... | yes | 1 | uel-bod-laz-2025-04-10 | Will Lazio win on 2025-04-10? | 70,969,191 | 70,969,191 |
312a10bd6af6679a9dec11e7f56942b47c698cb5 | 0x0cd1cdc4259a8f88fdf179ce45696d6b50840b70 | 0xbd64d8c150e2278d38ea8ff461f89d987feff2d0bcda228ae3ad2b49d8245c2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18?
Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-18
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? | 79,203,487 | 79,203,487 |
75681e472997e1ae00d6a55b31de8ec124dca00d | 0x0cd1cdc4259a8f88fdf179ce45696d6b50840b70 | 0xcb42ce799c32e8f0bbe7df6a20396a7ecb1ca494316c5df0027ab89d941e1ca7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released
Predict the user's choice and confidenc... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | 79,203,487 | 79,203,487 |
343be3fc026a02e266e9a98f439b7282a2bd6f5e | 0x0cd1cdc4259a8f88fdf179ce45696d6b50840b70 | 0xbf6397bba92a2abde13c006dfb35fa0204aa0936e1228fea6355481593b4aefe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Que... | yes | 1 | bra-bot-rec-2025-11-18 | Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-11-18? | 79,228,068 | 79,228,068 |
82ce6da269a5e2a750ef9c9552389a997291089b | 0x0cd1cdc4259a8f88fdf179ce45696d6b50840b70 | 0xf5c5ebbcd26578ca0f62a5b238f680cd8c42cecadb9582c5e506e181737a6fc0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will B... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on November 20? | 79,288,063 | 79,288,063 |
5a05fb8c34059b585c565eeae8c2188acc983ba5 | 0x0cd1cdc4259a8f88fdf179ce45696d6b50840b70 | 0x6d8ae6d4f09d2f751155d3c704d9f18d9976f5dec5170ce7528eaa24698ddeed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will B... | yes | 1 | lal-val-lev-2025-11-21 | Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? | 79,405,032 | 79,405,032 |
a94bd286ce38abed976c8e2896897f82ea7ba482 | 0x0cd1cdc4259a8f88fdf179ce45696d6b50840b70 | 0x7cf0f34759e339e454ede0f2232bf93b792d259f95d2de17f0b6061c9ca0c3f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will B... | no | 1 | epl-bur-che-2025-11-22 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,405,032 | 79,405,032 |
acf129208e757a12d004f43696bb9909f9c4d93e | 0x0cd1cdc4259a8f88fdf179ce45696d6b50840b70 | 0xed8da673df65db4f370568f91e9c74642d87ae1d53123396a02111b9b0648ff2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will B... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-bre-2025-11-22 | Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? | 79,405,032 | 79,405,032 |
c80a06501e1d4bec330b0b27087f0f62565a8ebe | 0x0cd1cdc4259a8f88fdf179ce45696d6b50840b70 | 0xf1a352ee1a5410a21e3cff4f247711aa3b6dad6d853ce752984d23e7874a068c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will B... | yes | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-21 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21? | 79,405,032 | 79,405,032 |
e02ede38242d315d6ebb26bc104598e33afcec68 | 0x0cd1cdc4259a8f88fdf179ce45696d6b50840b70 | 0xa2bdad2607cbe70384c9754fab8ac43de2d63ba46fe05c3c4ff10adb7a275198 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will B... | yes | 1 | mls-sdg-min-2025-11-24 | Will San Diego FC win on 2025-11-24? | 79,485,292 | 79,485,292 |
193cc2b540585529511526a83c1b894e3a686808 | 0x0cd1cdc4259a8f88fdf179ce45696d6b50840b70 | 0x1671517bd3d1671146fdc1951e1fcd7caec1cd4dfaec52f319b6bb16d5712a5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will B... | bucks | 0 | nba-mil-mia-2025-11-26 | Bucks vs. Heat | 79,549,825 | 79,549,825 |
38d713957f78bc95a004084f302bff528add3351 | 0x0cd1cdc4259a8f88fdf179ce45696d6b50840b70 | 0x4ff93f37bdfcbbb17fdbf73ea026818eeb71007301e8769ef9acef0b1382a9a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will B... | manhattan jaspers | 0.339806 | cbb-wag-manh-2025-11-26 | Wagner Seahawks vs. Manhattan Jaspers | 79,549,825 | 79,549,825 |
12d15f35e53a436ce056ca9a4d9602853e81113a | 0x0cd1cdc4259a8f88fdf179ce45696d6b50840b70 | 0x7474272699c60eb240db4d859190c0efcf1c1c55084101e82e2ff84e1f8a95da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will B... | islanders | 0.012346 | nhl-bos-nyi-2025-11-26 | Bruins vs. Islanders | 79,549,825 | 79,549,825 |
428e1ca49f0ccf4327e6862a9726660b7c179b75 | 0x0cd1cdc4259a8f88fdf179ce45696d6b50840b70 | 0xac2d344649408bd2ae0db2218c8a31d16885ac8726704107f7fd02ea0a823654 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will B... | hurricanes | 0.072464 | nhl-nyr-car-2025-11-26 | Rangers vs. Hurricanes | 79,549,825 | 79,549,825 |
b2d6d0687478abee193dca5f31870e5613514fb8 | 0x0cd1cdc4259a8f88fdf179ce45696d6b50840b70 | 0xdee7a8155bb65d198be99de9668a3c7cdeb389d82093721d707e00e64defd660 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will B... | pacers | 0 | nba-ind-tor-2025-11-26 | Pacers vs. Raptors | 79,549,825 | 79,549,825 |
3f34f6701934ad4340878dc678d21b9b784f4181 | 0x0cd1cdc4259a8f88fdf179ce45696d6b50840b70 | 0xf60e20a099cc0b16064bb3b96afd9b3ea7c50ac017d2423d21000e2d3b01def1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will B... | idaho state bengals | 0 | cbb-idhst-smho-2025-11-26 | Idaho State Bengals vs. Sam Houston Bearkats | 79,549,825 | 79,549,825 |
03640ce6c8f4a77284eb0dce6ec73301f64ba4e8 | 0x0cd1cdc4259a8f88fdf179ce45696d6b50840b70 | 0x7352d3be5138032da969ccb8618f3fd3abfa9f748fdcef7d3b5e5e67228eecb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Event: what-day-will-gemini-3pt0-be-released | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will B... | thunder | 0 | nba-min-okc-2025-11-26 | Timberwolves vs. Thunder | 79,549,825 | 79,575,098 |
bbf33e83f010482289c6214b20f8ccc02a05c7e8 | 0x0ce836f715f09ce4a8768bb230e631a59e393352 | 0x257b18205f908aef01ef2d1d50e6fea7d29cf5486fe04031d8b101394476faed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Event: fed-decision-in-march-885
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | fed-decision-in-march-885 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | 78,430,156 | 78,430,156 |
31cea897941d9101e91c5d58186e308b1d49b363 | 0x0ce836f715f09ce4a8768bb230e631a59e393352 | 0x035a31006f1116eb5c17462ad4814b9b30a576f55c8397a9e454c4857266cd79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march-885 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?
Event: 2nd-place-in-bucharest-mayoral-election-27... | yes | 0.000682 | 2nd-place-in-bucharest-mayoral-election-274 | Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election? | 78,684,725 | 78,684,725 |
28678d6e799df10e50c2d32b1686452cd132692b | 0x0ce836f715f09ce4a8768bb230e631a59e393352 | 0xc44f2236e0eb3999636b533f0d378bad499329049daa4c0f1a2510d963b6c2da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march-885 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-bucharest-mayoral-election-274 | Choice:... | yes | 0.001747 | 2nd-place-in-bucharest-mayoral-election-274 | Will Daniel Baluta finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election? | 78,684,725 | 78,684,725 |
dafbc647ce5c6feb63ae61d71adac98235c956c1 | 0x0ce836f715f09ce4a8768bb230e631a59e393352 | 0x06c68023792aef960390835dea46635947d24a033f623da56e33ca61442e64c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march-885 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-bucharest-mayoral-election-274 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | eth-perpswick-edgex-winner | Will Prodzy win the ETH Perpswick EdgeX trading competition? | 78,709,454 | 78,709,454 |
213c16fd9a1ad387a9cd4142fecc2f491962d5c5 | 0x0ce836f715f09ce4a8768bb230e631a59e393352 | 0x2b6ff4df9aac2d57bd2bbd9118b257cacf7666ed2fe0739f10781d73d1590bb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march-885 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-bucharest-mayoral-election-274 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | eth-perpswick-edgex-winner | Will artsch00lreject win the ETH Perpswick EdgeX trading competition? | 78,709,454 | 78,709,454 |
25cd300ac5218174a71bb135de54c491109042b3 | 0x0ce836f715f09ce4a8768bb230e631a59e393352 | 0x9141a9942ba96f8648c994347b32b5a66fa56831200f38f1d670d1c62df273d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march-885 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-bucharest-mayoral-election-274 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | eth-perpswick-edgex-winner | Will Maxwell win the ETH Perpswick EdgeX trading competition? | 78,709,454 | 78,709,454 |
409b39109e6f0df6fe6054ebdff4a59adbfce448 | 0x0ce836f715f09ce4a8768bb230e631a59e393352 | 0xc1af46f367ef9595dd758e3d060758f26230a6569adca9b1a1ade9a1ac4a9201 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march-885 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-bucharest-mayoral-election-274 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | eth-perpswick-edgex-winner | Will Charco win the ETH Perpswick EdgeX trading competition? | 78,709,454 | 78,709,454 |
71727f1ee63491aad01bb90a601c14492a58b68f | 0x0ce836f715f09ce4a8768bb230e631a59e393352 | 0x006e3bc30b325c9cd4e4a35e33738e7f49634dc353f8495303d511b875d8ad5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march-885 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-bucharest-mayoral-election-274 | Choice:... | no | 0.001498 | will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-before-2027 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | 78,741,250 | 78,741,250 |
47ff3e923d9b4e417ce3ef4b89c420bd2e90e126 | 0x0ce836f715f09ce4a8768bb230e631a59e393352 | 0xb1d3292c18099a0f8d246f4741bf5b42e53fa144e037f0af7c39e83de0bc449d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march-885 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-bucharest-mayoral-election-274 | Choice:... | no | 0.090471 | which-pact-will-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-chile-senate-election-311 | Will Chile Grande y Unido gain the most seats in the Senate election? | 78,741,250 | 78,741,250 |
9bd7c19364643a3302b449e2c1713ae70c40eb8a | 0x0ce836f715f09ce4a8768bb230e631a59e393352 | 0x0f6e11f62759058298b1f05a6e6c150a1daec36110e511837e1749b808d42568 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march-885 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-bucharest-mayoral-election-274 | Choice:... | yes | 0.688908 | predator-badlands-opening-weekend-box-office-highest-brackets | Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 37m? | 78,741,250 | 78,858,064 |
9c2b2bbbd8d294655f30a6ff98b9b3d818dcf431 | 0x0ce836f715f09ce4a8768bb230e631a59e393352 | 0x301e5891050976ec7fa43743bd50207e7bb9355f7788d008834492b29f743afe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march-885 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-bucharest-mayoral-election-274 | Choice:... | no | 1 | predator-badlands-opening-weekend-box-office-highest-brackets | Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 37m? | 78,858,064 | 78,858,064 |
08700590b07093fb61b0b709d3b015800b08cc6b | 0x0ce836f715f09ce4a8768bb230e631a59e393352 | 0xa2a7c7205dd1f5b0c979fc77ffa760b83b834830eae8ce61e27f349111e4b4b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march-885 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-bucharest-mayoral-election-274 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | predator-badlands-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 26m? | 78,858,064 | 78,858,064 |
551b556443932224a36bfb35bd1e427fdfdd37e2 | 0x0ce836f715f09ce4a8768bb230e631a59e393352 | 0x9af4aa93abfc53d756332ea0ddc4f65377bdd21ee7b979f0a5e5d4b4d3a164c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march-885 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-bucharest-mayoral-election-274 | Choice:... | yes | 0.000051 | where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? | 78,925,795 | 78,925,795 |
b41597d99734ad5f18675c71d27fd54a751a6040 | 0x0ce836f715f09ce4a8768bb230e631a59e393352 | 0x80db1cb8b044feaa6d6cdd9110754dce3912af0ec0d845a3aeb5864a1ba7de67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march-885 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-bucharest-mayoral-election-274 | Choice:... | no | 0 | will-trump-create-a-tariff-dividend-by-march-31 | Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31? | 78,925,804 | 78,925,804 |
50fa0a79692d81820e6aa757a5b0a178984ad22e | 0x0ce836f715f09ce4a8768bb230e631a59e393352 | 0x22b33c2cac283148986e12fe45f822a39b60d93b1a81fcd8ce84a42bbbf73c7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march-885 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election? | Event: 2nd-place-in-bucharest-mayoral-election-274 | Choice:... | no | 0.428439 | chile-presidential-election-1st-round-4th-place | Will Evelyn Matthei come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election? | 78,944,657 | 78,944,657 |
5f24d528a0f9895217e570554d70e82342ea05ef | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x4b75232af18e89cf2a2216498b4768ece26b52e1fe88e8a9cdce211d75316b99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25?
Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | 68,391,307 | 68,391,307 |
942c9445142c58834e01ca52359df54b36d80eed | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x50025f1d4f96498ef96d138011bc5cc90241a5e1d1f6b33d195c4d1e4a94cff3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw?
Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"c... | no | 1 | ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | 68,689,959 | 68,689,959 |
8fb21bac8efef2948e1727dcc8a7115ecdfdc941 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xc3495e2970fab047786df45588c5b6f439d4727bd92fed240888277e745c3573 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04?
Event:... | no | 1 | ucl-bru-ast-2025-03-04 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | 68,709,437 | 68,709,437 |
e5e90a451e0ec1ed495bb3094375f246c2516913 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x1820c36c6273e59fc76ec1d7a93aeea415991afef86f4703c2cf3835431b1ed3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-08? | 68,815,856 | 68,815,856 |
61ae9ff2a5d06a3dfb68d42dc51cc3965c6c11c8 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x444ddf4d35e67e6b1c97ad264c018ff1c0d73ea0702773697d1beca4fb3f484f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | 68,815,856 | 68,815,856 |
c4c7434b087bbcfb0fad4177b39344d394849864 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x545c596f5c44f8a4f231a9931fc3fe2f8b28a4782f66c359f564a7750f23d555 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | epl-bri-ful-2025-03-08 | Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | 68,815,856 | 68,815,856 |
10265c684f0acf0d07ae0b2593b18c73cb03644f | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x92c2462387a15eaaf8c384b1928a4b9e011ed23f67f12c7eda3d9da7e2c403d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Will Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | 68,815,856 | 68,815,856 |
0b27a401c86f734f8eeb6c220fee727d272a3348 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x9fa5023d24fbc548311e6e8e2b322c381bd5e3126a05404887ab011d455d6fb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Will Liverpool vs. Southampton end in a draw? | 68,815,856 | 68,815,856 |
c3ed9e1c086b16bbdd150977c8df44584359135f | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x24014b107ae2c722c5e37a3824dfe740222d21b9d4fee5d78e3fe8f06ace051f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | 68,856,957 | 68,856,957 |
4d401a04b81f76a0d1fc12a3dfa02508f4519aa2 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xc940cea9e91e00e96b30ed1665be5a308798c0e14a695b70431d33328ffa67cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-bou-2025-03-09 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-09? | 68,856,957 | 68,856,957 |
1b14c65e684c70e027ef0114729ee463b3487fc2 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xd2179a1e776c2bf2eb5aec9ce4da495cda2e5d8c727666c292213a26fe93f635 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 0 | epl-tot-bou-2025-03-09 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-03-09? | 68,856,957 | 68,856,957 |
b5298a7a9dfe6e64c436b72217baa6ee7677265f | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xd8f227d665d55544878ffdd4cea3d251a8ad9a583e8e3ff2c09a21e41d3df310 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-bou-2025-03-09 | Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | 68,856,957 | 68,856,957 |
3dab2d5088bda0b38957b01bb0cb35bca71f83f7 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x365b4805cdd891562f5257879d694c2e743c6aefa0c0bfb71a499533bf0e4b43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | 68,995,951 | 68,995,951 |
d7153b6113885da17c574e4b41441b5c275a5e14 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x3fb11d09dd2c5ffff744e6c0ee67d1d00ca6ebbd388de4fa0a3d3d4d09c935e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 | Will West Ham vs. Newcastle end in a draw? | 68,995,951 | 68,995,951 |
a8eea55c93974ca327ee64574863f5fcd3606a56 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xa90f816567e77cda9f983d43e7cc71e0455c890f7f9d82b1e71bdf65badfddec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | 68,995,951 | 68,995,951 |
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