sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ae534fa45342e5aa1f3521f13a5acb63fe3a6c48 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xe6fbf79ae9f5c73b1561c5a351a6b991aa64a8365e1232f58a86a51f5bef4c34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-03-10? | 68,995,951 | 68,995,951 |
21ebeeb6ad9a44e2af4fc1b132274390562e9fd3 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x2f9f585b5f816394fc36677d676ab643cb7b05b6db31a0bdb7e6338fc33c93ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? | 69,074,162 | 69,074,162 |
9b65e201ca25474f5282e8911316021b305a0ac1 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x7a65402a54ccdf7b6aaff9af031a1c337e55a8d984fc2d48414091755382a2ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | uel-fra-ajx-2025-03-13 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-03-13? | 69,074,162 | 69,074,162 |
b19dc0d97901ca723a37aebc2a04349bb0657f2e | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xde4a00e17e4e08b5c4ef1e5c03c6883b4d40c06959439778ba19635fb16c65be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14? | 69,074,162 | 69,074,162 |
4da7a72cf91d86795e3ff2b2baf539e7a27f1cb7 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xdec94686ac38e6ab576e20b946eeb475580bc82b37e36ad17503666eae587eb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14? | 69,074,162 | 69,074,162 |
5d9ad4438d098b992072f275bd721ec51490be54 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xe85f139d7a784177f3861d3e650b6031a45ff16454a513ba212a3ac19b44e426 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Mar 14? | 69,074,162 | 69,074,162 |
7025faaa4af43c58d9482d0b9af57ac30554c4ff | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xe972e52ae679b6a5b3306420285718c92971f789206f8779a2c511538b67181a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 14? | 69,074,162 | 69,074,162 |
06965283b42a1685e9ee6d88b925fce00e304d11 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x2181b6c4d303c15c35028fbeb8b3d1dce6cc30c5ad7d9f6324439c89c2968bb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | epl-eve-wes-2025-03-15 | Will Everton vs. West Ham end in a draw? | 69,123,058 | 69,123,058 |
d1e62a3c8adec9703cc047a08207f1433d90d5bb | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x29061312b495a5c4bbc5c8905d4e27b5252942a9226faadd607dea2a45ad37f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | epl-eve-wes-2025-03-15 | Will West Ham win on 2025-03-15? | 69,123,058 | 69,123,058 |
345facf992931c6906c57f4e5a2b856dbbb81830 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x76d73008971c5ec694dfba846cddf955188562b4d224cbf08da67d8ce793b7c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | epl-bou-bre-2025-03-15 | Will Brentford win on 2025-03-15? | 69,123,058 | 69,123,058 |
5a07c845095dfb38ff36ab99ad53289356a0e589 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x7b72dcede9796e114239ef74ff074ae9294fde879802c80c544624eac88c67be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | epl-bou-bre-2025-03-15 | Will Bournemouth vs. Brentford end in a draw? | 69,123,058 | 69,123,058 |
51d97d3889c720c703fc3e72c72ecf36a313f212 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xb5cb0761f7f3ef3f103784e6cb2a6610162ad9e810aedc0645b0600eea49be07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | yes | 1 | f1-constructor-with-highest-score-at-australian-gp | Will McLaren have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP? | 69,154,615 | 69,154,615 |
773c195262d02288ab4fb4286b027c93dbf41059 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x3f08bc831d9898043a6925642c9994abc517e4b090adffc2250d68f880849999 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | 69,412,837 | 69,412,837 |
adb05ce2e55ff342855f36c816e8cb65ea19995d | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x40cdbbf7cde1288d5e774fbeb0797806840c79d0dd207c1a4ec2bc5310261c9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | yes | 1 | f1-constructor-with-highest-score-at-australian-gp | Will Mercedes have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP? | 69,412,837 | 69,412,837 |
0dedff6892f3eab26fca26fc6f0b4fd59af32082 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x50e51680fb8892d5dfd89e95a572340ae4cc9dfd08db89e7ffbe28414d151663 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-germany | Will Germany beat Italy | 69,412,837 | 69,412,837 |
dc2655f7580a2dd7a577c727510cb58bce856291 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x67b560a5e43178ad083780a48a52da9f882f90ab8c5f0c547607e777e4339a1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25? | Event: epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-as... | yes | 1 | f1-constructor-with-highest-score-at-australian-gp | Will Red Bull have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP? | 69,412,837 | 69,412,837 |
012e710e6cccc36a00092b554c2dd27a5f8820d1 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x70e98419cfc09a6722abc32675032fb64a94047a17d25976d926474066a6fcb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rma-mad-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-ast-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-08? | Event: ep... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 18? | 69,412,837 | 69,412,837 |
6a14ab2c4751acb72b708b997140ed02a1f58929 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x712ad14a2c61d8a05677fa62522b03381ea340fd1d09b35aa74bb7b87a841ac6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Event: ucl-bru-ast-2025-03-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-germany | Will Italy vs. Germany end in a draw? | 69,412,837 | 69,412,837 |
ea4f7118621e2432d9323b7a391319d52a368fdb | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x85fcb9a0b99792b15cf2e345f3c52f9cb35109f0730cf62474709b176ec4eb49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025... | yes | 1 | f1-constructor-with-highest-score-at-australian-gp | Will Ferrari have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP? | 69,412,837 | 69,412,837 |
d311a68ca9d0284f8b79a54693e000422a738f92 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x86e20e004abe156829bad675c5cea125478780687801d252e6e831a6a9488f8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-03-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-germany | Will Italy beat Germany | 69,412,837 | 69,412,837 |
d1a597a2360b9f8b0a8f1493c1ca1dc4ee4f3a47 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x86fb692d46222a843e5b29a9ce74ea98fb5418bd3ddd70beb02acca036459031 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-03-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Southampton end in a dra... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? | 69,412,837 | 69,412,837 |
d3eb1f4b69802c6fc804b40f01120965b6f7598c | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xd0e624bdf054135b614290083687780292cd32a17722addd1f61ca7d58242b58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Southampton end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Eve... | yes | 1 | f1-constructor-with-highest-score-at-australian-gp | Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP? | 69,412,837 | 69,412,837 |
796713b3b349312a53f7056301235b4caa731a96 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x31b00298fd4222286461c326fd60bc47caee6ee112e19975442469071ce69d52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool vs. Southampton end in a draw? | Event: epl-liv-sou-2025-03-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-tot-bou-2025-03-... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-march-21 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 21? | 69,436,592 | 69,436,592 |
d4f8f8fba126d9072250c81f5be8fac6475c8595 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x3a6f547a580dfa4c4ea14bc01f0f7467e64a241c65662362e440e683250a3d5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-tot-bou-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-tot-bou-2025-03-09 | Choi... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-march-21 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on March 21? | 69,436,592 | 69,436,592 |
0609ecdf8cb859e8fe678024a71fc446012fffcb | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x3aa302dbe3efd9180349e6dd2627ed3c20f9cf97966101bc2f732dcf72f298f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-tot-bou-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-tot-bou-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-bou-202... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on March 23? | 69,436,592 | 69,436,592 |
8acb5ec1e97329fc53247d8785956393c5c84789 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xf2eb319cb6dab045e19ac9091a612870ca366c022e8be5bf5cd266c5f0e303cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-03-09? | Event: epl-tot-bou-2025-03-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-bou-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on March 23? | 69,436,592 | 69,436,592 |
f81e19509be2a8ada6daebe8d183655556bceba7 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x2bb072435958b8dbcd4c7234614be00a2e835f3061e20e5aa488afef02c8df44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-bou-2025-03-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham vs. Newcastle end in a draw? | Event: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 26? | 69,557,593 | 69,557,593 |
5773c0dbf2ac42d0330b4efa6b364a34ec15c3a9 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x77d1baadd5b0125f0782a519a9a68e7583fe5ad60167dc0ff3ac8b2f0d5f3dfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham vs. Newcastle end in a draw? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event:... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 26? | 69,557,593 | 69,557,593 |
077d6c19f64940d441c4fc31e3748a798af71d8d | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xa49b46459e36981d5e4ebe6445aa98aba3be1451990cb8e44c8bf1905e9c0cb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham vs. Newcastle end in a draw? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-03-10? | Event: epl-wes... | no | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-brazil | Will Brazil beat Argentina? | 69,557,593 | 69,557,593 |
8da8cd8f48f86578146b778c34aff247c50f19c8 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xae6778dde8cae92408c3aec6d18912fee3057bfca6ac3d42d802f979a8b1029d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | Event: ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-03-10? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on M... | no | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-brazil | Will Argentina beat Brazil? | 69,557,593 | 69,557,593 |
4f3ea16d8c85c205578d10d0253d0ec1478d77c3 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x03c2a9d922e49a9c4624fc1f11ab0d835700288bb74e512c4ef5288292eced3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-03-10? | Event: epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-0... | no | 1 | fear-greed-index-on-march-31 | Will Fear & Greed Index report "Extreme Fear" on March 31? | 69,781,218 | 69,781,218 |
e93ec6c09c0a5f1400e2af3c545999a086aba348 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x34a7a71b8eae2bec06e066bf137c15766cf1aa335be0eb26acda3229e324f98b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-03-13? | Event: uel-fra-ajx-2025-03-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 500-524 time... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28? | 69,781,218 | 69,781,218 |
7c56d3d2dec1097b9939a1290a2f6b686832e335 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x3ca226dce5f120c0ad4e5f09c7b3cb5a9d969fc17759bb6f19a9ffb25e08c01b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-03-13? | Event: uel-fra-ajx-2025-03-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14? | Event... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-march-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $330b on March 31? | 69,781,218 | 69,781,218 |
db35069a7c4a7693a1521d73b53a16ddf57c9ebe | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xaa7acb52daf553401736c1824cd4e0afe91c1371550cfe8df1f4a31b82e6f8fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 a... | no | 1 | fear-greed-index-on-march-31 | Will Fear & Greed Index report "Fear" on March 31? | 69,781,218 | 69,781,218 |
4ef3c0c723cdb24ee94f88a67f42c1a863f12502 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x11a71f51f620dc30aba9c2c087b44666be683840d5df9ca27a40dc60d679b790 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Mar 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest tempera... | yes | 1 | epl-not-mun-2025-04-01 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-01? | 69,894,751 | 69,894,751 |
26af074028b8e912b856eeee5d60cdb273456dbe | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x72548dd5dfad7c542b815222926d645d288f72a0018622436f76cecf039f34e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Mar 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-14 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on April 2? | 69,894,751 | 69,894,751 |
640bda09a0510e4464c5e2e38bb79ae3befb6900 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x74b560da9135b6777e4b4f5de3562c40a39dff9108072a170016c96a798a5593 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-wes-2025-03-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-1 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on April 1? | 69,894,751 | 69,894,751 |
6850a4e28380c131dff77ea76d0866c767e7efb2 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x8c253843d9e80261899e8e4e27ddda49088c425963786db54cb3863b971e9e0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-wes-2025-03-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-eve-wes-2025-03-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-bou-bre-2025-03-15 |... | no | 1 | epl-ars-ful-2025-04-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-01? | 69,894,751 | 69,894,751 |
4e9410c6659808971ab5617db46e5d9f29829452 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x934293227a9175af4f16c89fe2c12428728aa18808130e5b62b70506a828a0d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-eve-wes-2025-03-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-bou-bre-2025-03-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-bre-2025-03... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on April 2? | 69,894,751 | 69,894,751 |
c939cf36db537d15d823f661fa5b9e20d7331ade | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0xdeb3f4909ea9f13fdc190afb95d1f60cdd26c1d6524615e6c56b3e51c62ae99b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-03-15? | Event: epl-bou-bre-2025-03-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-bre-2025-03-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will McLaren have the highest Constructor score at the Austra... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-1 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on April 1? | 69,894,751 | 69,894,751 |
6e40ef9b8af3822f968f80d42425105e845d8c20 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x27afe055fb4b4c72dd20067495e41ae55d40fb36b289d2ba8f6456d3fda9150f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-bre-2025-03-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will McLaren have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP? | Event: f1-constructor-with-highest-score-at-australian-gp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 0.504971 | ucl-bay-int-2025-04-08 | Will Inter win on 2025-04-08? | 70,092,653 | 70,092,653 |
3e31056e10c8189739ad49d77bf024d6cb5932c2 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x2ddcca5c271e142640c4045a7fef3cce3db669941bf4a61ab17d700314379cc0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will McLaren have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP? | Event: f1-constructor-with-highest-score-at-australian-gp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-28-apr-4 | Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4? | 70,092,653 | 70,092,653 |
38c54ae55a833afac1eaea6ee0948e98cf1f0952 | 0x0cfe2e2d89ebec5f8701076f9cc9b086b78eb99f | 0x300dfa307a256c358e1ff288f22315f008539539387998a4eee1bfe94f427d28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mercedes have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP? | Event: f1-constructor-with-highest-score-at-australian-gp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | ucl-bay-int-2025-04-08 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-04-08? | 70,092,653 | 70,092,653 |
d0939181bdd7205b84f41a0d023d1c1e49cdb7a1 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xe24c0ab3278467c357d62052b22da4ef3234aba55b62107a26f4a242414ffc32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY?
Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.070616 | usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | 50,968,133 | 51,653,441 |
cb503468914d5bda372a6280d6148b1f50607579 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x72932d247dcd9d33f906dd75eeae0cb188ee327962aabcc9f4ad4f8eac4de983 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
Target market:
Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023?
Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023
P... | no | 0 | which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | 50,989,048 | 50,989,048 |
8b6abaa958ef23e13ae1b56d042b288d53bd1ef6 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x63cfffa8764426c9b2ffe4b521c9499b4e35c9fb53ff1be68c79dec2a016be2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | taiwan-presidential-election-who-will-win | Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Ko Wen-je win? | 51,090,474 | 51,090,474 |
abf0c84b04b5591e20e544982aaecc0ca556f622 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x4d6a6ea1374800b4553cbe8dd1715c7079f4c210227f7dcc1f55176e35b94db5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | wonka-opening-weekend | Will 'Wonka' gross over $40m over its opening weekend? | 51,256,795 | 51,256,795 |
238264a13d0727332f92deadf12d44b1d739eee3 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x32c02dd293eae94b38ad90b6c5cc237c29d0cbdc0d528a0b98d3ae0fda35c1d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | will-us-attack-yemen-in-2023 | Will US attack Yemen in 2023? | 51,293,173 | 51,293,173 |
334a5af8ca6f5142f574a4d8913221f639234eea | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xdd976943ed5c0099b888cf86c0214046ce1cb7d31c3e7907e645c0e986c2e870 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | yes | 0.000022 | aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-4-day-opening-weekend | Will 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' gross over $35m on its 4-day opening weekend? | 51,352,622 | 51,468,326 |
5a562430a61d8bd065c9ee74a65e2aadc14b3e3c | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x47c4c8bc8b37845ed38a540d17b16a729887a4cbe7a757b2db133e902707aa47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-4-day-opening-weekend | Will 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' gross over $40m on its 4-day opening weekend? | 51,489,328 | 51,569,442 |
e66ddf6d64269afb8baf7f48e1dae7dfe1b1a7ef | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xb416e130f5b2ef1891d7cdb24c84dafcfd566933bca176fe6fad5b548eb9a7b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | maersk-resume-shipping-in-red-sea-by | Will Maersk resume shipping through Red Sea by end of 2023? | 51,577,667 | 51,653,489 |
b2f4fed14a97848885554c795834ea6aba2c8d1c | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x3da9f54e3f239ff48966128917f229da5fc7d2289c40a52966d67ff2c5d0f192 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0.000136 | another-israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-february | Another Israel x Hamas ceasefire before February? | 51,843,122 | 52,427,614 |
aa893b76ef96cd1046228e6bf0769486d34adabf | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xbdc8ad55cb8fa7b3c84a971d6056f6a0f354f0f882c3fab598abae19d4e60a5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | biden-approval-on-jan-7 | Will Joe Biden's 538 approval rating be between 38.5-39.0% on January 7? | 51,911,521 | 51,911,521 |
22c4450ae4f48e5f61c2d277abc8a24d8521c7d3 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x3131318147433b10079e4aaf01eca793698f434741bd0ed43af73fd50286b520 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | yes | 0.001082 | layerzero-airdrop-by-april | LayerZero airdrop by April? | 51,965,783 | 55,491,783 |
500fe23f4a23b8a7b86152fc50d08070eac74357 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x9c11e90444d882761731d698e39f9675e498147ea702d78c9000e8c28533f112 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0.000145 | us-inflation-0pt2-from-nov-to-dec-2023 | US inflation >0.2% from Nov to Dec 2023? | 51,977,906 | 51,977,906 |
f3bfb2f28ab7cb2de8f635ee7937eb50d63bde0d | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xe45f4c36c9e30a1d17fdd2f995e300303cacc61fc9cbe1d1042d259f548f4f6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | ethereum-spot-etf-approved-by | Ethereum spot ETF approved by Jan 31? | 52,040,718 | 52,040,718 |
433bba01e0aa2a5c883d196a049a908893e0ea9e | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xbd8e261857c2867751220efc21e64528d18521515949f88708057042385bba85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | ethereum-spot-etf-approved-by | Ethereum spot ETF approved by Mar 31? | 52,049,594 | 52,049,594 |
2f094aee79ee5c1430a128e2becc385adbc09046 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x869f5c385876051f6897e5cb223054c8ab5f5ba5d395b31afe24abba15f3a29e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | hamas-command-center-under-al-shifa-hospital | Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital? | 52,067,682 | 52,067,682 |
4d54bdf03db560db460a19267763ae17bc6f2b48 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x50811f195c90c04b54d02fbfeb54ed5ec4b28d2b1c619786967683aab35cb17e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | will-the-doomsday-clock-move-closer-to-midnight-in-2024 | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight in 2024? | 52,082,743 | 52,082,743 |
e23513a1b8cdcaface3b50cd8f4fd1673fc9bb1d | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x636b389a6f5a5ff04a1e855b0d11b39232df4730a70e91656d660e73ce36cd2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0.000029 | will-sol-outperform-eth-in-january | Will SOL outperform ETH in January? | 52,100,240 | 52,718,753 |
e071792b23347f80400a98e7162a6772cabb0083 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xb315ade328b9fde9e6c81d1064f8f501599b6e6019e2236941950c4da8fffb99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | yes | 0.000056 | will-man-city-win-the-premier-league | Will Man City win the Premier League? | 52,100,279 | 53,612,195 |
fe2408e40bcd494c02b39f021b258fe8ee2b3af7 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x7b45a04ff1ffba2c8132915e19ecd676fb21d51fad69f7afb6a39d5609ebf4ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | will-us-attack-yemen-before-february | Will US attack Yemen before February? | 52,204,099 | 52,204,099 |
ec3f6a1e65dc0fa0e4674386ecb9c7d57f39a864 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xf2b081da4f852f43f2d4e7cc0b2ae3f1671f4cbbb702b1d76b3d3133365cfa3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | wif-all-time-high-before-february | $WIF all time high before February? | 52,238,918 | 52,336,830 |
4421153d972288e3848898d6615cfc50e4479b1b | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xe55c7b1ce6dbd5e2fd6f4d17ad8834bb335da16e116c7404eb40b26adc62ca11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | will-haley-beat-desantis-in-iowa | Will Haley beat DeSantis in Iowa? | 52,312,928 | 52,312,928 |
3d6e95d1adbf44909153c11791d5e06f57e66bed | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xed5a9a76ee58dac4c7998714e08a2f4a25adb3ad5231469f9769057bc25d15b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | yes | 0.000058 | jupiter-airdrop-by-jan-31 | Jupiter airdrop by Jan 31? | 52,336,388 | 52,416,078 |
c3cb6e53889a681661fed1b583da047094e68bdf | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x5680e5167b509cda65b544bff49804b151e3224acec09f9083619dd545cfe83b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | solana-airdrops-by-march-1 | Wormhole airdrop by March 1? | 52,379,306 | 52,379,306 |
cc65a318895f09bbf6f46a70fc5c8ee0d3136443 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xdf8a3a7b24dc0c468403a124f0868d5919df5d1d48718bba7ae45b2c3f9ad24b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0.000085 | will-saudi-arabia-boost-oil-production-in-q4 | Will Saudi Arabia boost oil production in Q4? | 52,435,762 | 52,435,762 |
557a047edc6d3cddf0b4ee0f0a30d3ac444925dc | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x530268b3870992515e5e4161c9fe91621db19db2e039f621066f3621bcb33ad9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | bonk-all-time-high-before-february | $BONK all time high before February? | 52,492,242 | 52,492,242 |
97d586eb45bcb379a4cdcc2407d9a96364b0941e | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x7820026bb099fe8c881ea5913ea3cf159b9a7d04140cdcb9a40ee1a69c18832f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | indonesia-election-prabowo-subianto-wins | Indonesia Election: Prabowo Subianto wins? | 52,602,571 | 52,795,468 |
457f64d266168de62839a371d61a422b9fd8419a | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xaa7ba144fc2abd3dcf36f2681e080084ea3397b29b01f6f35c1b53d82e71c7ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0.099631 | will-sweden-join-nato-by-february-29 | Will Sweden join NATO by February 29? | 52,667,446 | 54,000,283 |
2cd7d67f225b0c9dc2c4c705de6c9cf80e718fbd | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x30ce0b7719d7ad6fdab4bb100faea702ba481864a72df51c8632a6933f356dfc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | how-many-reposts-will-mrbeasts-250k-giveaway-get | Will MrBeast's giveaway tweet be the most reposted of all time? | 52,718,715 | 52,718,715 |
3baed454addf7c157500b8b5935796dae6a4f326 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xf03e4405cf742898c952138e47066933043dfd2ee8b4178a07ff3cf78a9a4637 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | will-google-announce-1000-new-layoffs-before-february | Will Google announce 1000+ new layoffs before February? | 52,726,375 | 53,097,097 |
fe19f88f8e4d6ad7b3b5c407f2a2039b957fcf54 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x3ac961dca3c4f0fc34bf94c661962012ab5e8bcdcadfc99affa06eddde00b29f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | no | 0 | will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race | Biden drops out of presidential race? | 52,794,704 | 52,794,704 |
b723db09dd10c7541bed09c5fad3623a898f04b6 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xfdf60d570f9026f1e74b88118d594d5d8375b3194cdd4ac413ed15f06d8f5117 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USDC market cap over $25 billion EOY? | Event: usdc-market-cap-over-25-billion-eoy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07061596263769407
2. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no ... | google | 0 | will-google-or-nvidia-be-worth-more-on-march-1 | Will Google or NVIDIA be worth more on March 1? | 53,819,723 | 53,819,723 |
53354e3aac96fb640f4381d677a7e13de4660e85 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x88d1f0bcae5608371e66908020e2e6824fc44384d56f3a1eae023a81011ca414 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liz Magill still UPenn President by end of 2023? | Event: which-college-presidents-who-testified-on-antisemitism-will-stay-through-2023 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Ko Wen-je win? | Event: taiwan-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: no... | no | 0 | eth-above-3000-on-march-1 | ETH above $3,000 on March 1? | 53,843,992 | 53,843,992 |
1363151948e9f59bfc9ffc953f440e4e9f078514 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x4d293ab1b2f7b68c0eb7106e827f9210e54ebf007de7b15c6216ebc0eb95de42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Taiwan Presidential Election: Will Ko Wen-je win? | Event: taiwan-presidential-election-who-will-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will 'Wonka' gross over $40m over its opening weekend? | Event: wonka-opening-weekend | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will US attack Yem... | no | 0.000212 | dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross under $70m opening weekend? | 54,129,435 | 54,135,851 |
c23ffa2ce9a27955c3e7ba93067a78e8a2e6d033 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x1a4a25d45ef3a9e7d897579e6f85bc9296c2c94d99b50ca3640a325197f7785d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Wonka' gross over $40m over its opening weekend? | Event: wonka-opening-weekend | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will US attack Yemen in 2023? | Event: will-us-attack-yemen-in-2023 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' gross over $35m... | no | 0 | dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $70m-80m opening weekend? | 54,161,089 | 54,204,433 |
3222074993b6e0ba67f6219cd515043b9892f6cf | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x45b4ecea87726c997c46358266818a11cdc6f6a68ff1a4c468352473512d070c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US attack Yemen in 2023? | Event: will-us-attack-yemen-in-2023 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' gross over $35m on its 4-day opening weekend? | Event: aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-4-day-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.206735625... | no | 0 | dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $80m-90m opening weekend? | 54,173,237 | 54,203,520 |
6f8a3f7528a596ea21f59a04b4880bb5eea89e20 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x44ef109508d816f18b4f4ad70e2aeb6e456334150323bbf7ef0cf9a50f9e6fd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' gross over $35m on its 4-day opening weekend? | Event: aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-4-day-opening-weekend | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.2067356258378223e-05
2. Question: Will 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' gross over $40m on its 4-day opening weekend? | Eve... | no | 0 | bitcoin-all-time-high-today | Bitcoin all time high today? | 54,280,148 | 54,280,985 |
08513e19cbc2324a0866b742e5d2d93dbf587f7c | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xcd8515afa947af212e160cf9377498c56c09aaea290c152bddc4e7198a44f045 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' gross over $40m on its 4-day opening weekend? | Event: aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-4-day-opening-weekend | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Maersk resume shipping through Red Sea by end of 2023? | Event: maersk-resume-shipping-in-red-sea-by |... | yes | 0.000021 | bitcoin-all-time-high-by-march-5 | Bitcoin all time high by March 5? | 54,285,336 | 54,296,851 |
d5a28e4b081a39b5993133f04f2c973cd281dd9f | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x4241a93cce3da0fca2bc94e65ec23f221be9e5b11b01646f51ca794bfe2db850 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Maersk resume shipping through Red Sea by end of 2023? | Event: maersk-resume-shipping-in-red-sea-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Another Israel x Hamas ceasefire before February? | Event: another-israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.000136... | yes | 0.000001 | bitcoin-new-all-time-high-by-friday | Bitcoin new all time high by Friday? | 54,335,472 | 54,375,444 |
e113c810faee64d87cdd91808cfb0bff2904ef03 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x67e140f7b67baac2dd704ee610c580a00cc62667765e35e90010a911da34365c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Another Israel x Hamas ceasefire before February? | Event: another-israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00013632768848448543
2. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 approval rating be between 38.5-39.0% on January 7? | Event: biden-approval-on-jan-7 | Choice: no | C... | no | 0 | ethereum-all-time-high-by-end-of-march | Ethereum all time high by end of March? | 54,379,753 | 54,379,753 |
9ab5307ffbec987cdfd0d585b4404d78115eb2ea | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x7fae760d66cbd79994750c820dc3e42fcf5523b916cdf4585afac444aca1c6c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden's 538 approval rating be between 38.5-39.0% on January 7? | Event: biden-approval-on-jan-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: LayerZero airdrop by April? | Event: layerzero-airdrop-by-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0010821277310289763
3. Question: US inflation >0.... | no | 0 | spacex-starship-launch-by-march-15 | SpaceX Starship launch by March 15? | 54,419,843 | 54,419,843 |
cb824ee695329df22f52e6528d2c72d375125eeb | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x3c9d8b8e50e69c48a1882f259db6c492662ce45fd4c019da1abb8ebe3f6cf8e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LayerZero airdrop by April? | Event: layerzero-airdrop-by-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0010821277310289763
2. Question: US inflation >0.2% from Nov to Dec 2023? | Event: us-inflation-0pt2-from-nov-to-dec-2023 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00014507894904449364
3. Question: Ethereum spot ... | no | 0 | will-there-be-a-us-government-shutdown-by-mar-9 | US government shutdown by Mar 9? | 54,432,028 | 54,432,028 |
3bfb6cb2778c25cad2a72ab91e85a8d63e7b7067 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x096f4013e59798987c5a283d6d4571fd879d8ef5987b759bc05c45ada9c791dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US inflation >0.2% from Nov to Dec 2023? | Event: us-inflation-0pt2-from-nov-to-dec-2023 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00014507894904449364
2. Question: Ethereum spot ETF approved by Jan 31? | Event: ethereum-spot-etf-approved-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum spot ETF ap... | no | 0.000004 | eth-above-4000-next-friday | ETH above $4,000 next Friday? | 54,473,772 | 54,600,151 |
d01c53acefac801345c30e5d8a402e12d3b5adb5 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x46d4824b2b1eecc15ffebd61132cd27a0795f16c91d01e615190f860531feb7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum spot ETF approved by Jan 31? | Event: ethereum-spot-etf-approved-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum spot ETF approved by Mar 31? | Event: ethereum-spot-etf-approved-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital? | Eve... | no | 0.000397 | btc-above-70000-next-friday | BTC above $70,000 next friday? | 54,475,221 | 54,627,510 |
6469bd41207c05aa95de43b53a9dd9108706c90d | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xf399932e8930c8e9026bf858214c50f86470f72ba4dba33283430b1e35ce1db1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum spot ETF approved by Mar 31? | Event: ethereum-spot-etf-approved-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital? | Event: hamas-command-center-under-al-shifa-hospital | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the Doomsday Clock move... | no | 0 | kanye-carnival-1-billboard-hot-100-next-week | Kanye "Carnival" #1 Billboard Hot 100 next week? | 54,483,805 | 54,483,805 |
d3294b35d446087c4dd4e5d959bfd99f3b8e5842 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xc4d9010f3888cc68b8927a4e4ae8a76b2710a9ba61aef3b066a2e2c776ae115f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital? | Event: hamas-command-center-under-al-shifa-hospital | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight in 2024? | Event: will-the-doomsday-clock-move-closer-to-midnight-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0.000037 | fani-willis-removed-from-trump-case-by-march-15 | Fani Willis removed from Trump case by March 15? | 54,521,440 | 54,570,294 |
c42fb5d29a28719f16a0a60e1f59a376d52b2f50 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xf0f37d96ff4036653069bfbcf329b2390ba8504906acae550a1af2f6fdb72268 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight in 2024? | Event: will-the-doomsday-clock-move-closer-to-midnight-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will SOL outperform ETH in January? | Event: will-sol-outperform-eth-in-january | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.866748846800275e-0... | no | 0.000278 | kanye-digital-release-of-vultures-vol-2-by-friday | Kanye digital release of 'Vultures' Vol. 2 by Friday? | 54,656,201 | 54,656,201 |
e40eafda951f8d11b00a4f4a77f6ac00c72c4687 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x9680e41769b76d79cddffb9ace729d5141d8b5d94b5277461595031de5da3534 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SOL outperform ETH in January? | Event: will-sol-outperform-eth-in-january | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.866748846800275e-05
2. Question: Will Man City win the Premier League? | Event: will-man-city-win-the-premier-league | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.552191714555049e-05
3. Question: Will... | no | 0 | what-price-will-btc-reach-in-march | Will BTC hit $80,000 in March? | 54,669,035 | 54,707,468 |
978877435db4b674be3fc75cb59523afef02e166 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x6d4fad42a637ce5a68088cce7c4725d1a14a6f017808296016542182da5a0f79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Man City win the Premier League? | Event: will-man-city-win-the-premier-league | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.552191714555049e-05
2. Question: Will US attack Yemen before February? | Event: will-us-attack-yemen-before-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: $WIF all time high... | no | 0.000072 | boeing-emergency-landing-by-next-friday | Boeing emergency landing by next Friday? | 54,712,702 | 54,712,702 |
02c4f6b4f1723cd8ea109b3d9a42c2d21f682666 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xd029d1e0cdcab01b5e0361956074fa3d0732e262e0bd8f7271d61616fb55c7af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US attack Yemen before February? | Event: will-us-attack-yemen-before-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: $WIF all time high before February? | Event: wif-all-time-high-before-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Haley beat DeSantis in Iowa? | Event:... | no | 0 | more-hostages-in-gaza-freed-before-april | More hostages in Gaza freed before April? | 54,728,645 | 54,982,132 |
b19c89b33bf1411aa9d7269f0cf50bf697c52ce8 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x3e1d9acf305ffd9224738dc21dfdeb0196b6864b4151be8f030dbf6d16bdcf13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: $WIF all time high before February? | Event: wif-all-time-high-before-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Haley beat DeSantis in Iowa? | Event: will-haley-beat-desantis-in-iowa | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Jupiter airdrop by Jan 31? | Event: jupiter-airdro... | no | 0 | reddit-ipo-valuation-first-day-of-trading | Will Reddit IPO at between $7.5b-10b valuation? | 54,785,917 | 54,785,917 |
4f76df5556f0fa715b3a4171b02e229b314bf3c9 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0x58727a3cddb1e2d7fd08f108cd73760fbe32025e27ab71668eee49ae5dafca9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Haley beat DeSantis in Iowa? | Event: will-haley-beat-desantis-in-iowa | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jupiter airdrop by Jan 31? | Event: jupiter-airdrop-by-jan-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.762167955071589e-05
3. Question: Wormhole airdrop by March 1? | Event: solana-air... | no | 0 | reddit-ipo-valuation-first-day-of-trading | Will Reddit IPO at between $5b-7.5b valuation? | 54,786,011 | 54,786,011 |
e0d9f6d5cb275f5699bfdef10957693b69cb0ede | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xce35b8d4d87b8dc3548f29cbfcd403ad2ce6cbb2c6a2d7785d01cf6677bf21e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jupiter airdrop by Jan 31? | Event: jupiter-airdrop-by-jan-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.762167955071589e-05
2. Question: Wormhole airdrop by March 1? | Event: solana-airdrops-by-march-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Saudi Arabia boost oil production in Q4? | Event: will... | yes | 0.000092 | slerf-listed-on-binance-by-friday | $SLERF listed on Binance by Friday? | 54,843,200 | 54,859,115 |
195b82ad212184e12c547bae3f6f512736d503a9 | 0x0d0107a300f01d1786a1c018fb5e75f476184c04 | 0xfe8219d6c76bcaa92565b74f4bd334ef482ab3b428086051a7a670ca54842f4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wormhole airdrop by March 1? | Event: solana-airdrops-by-march-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Saudi Arabia boost oil production in Q4? | Event: will-saudi-arabia-boost-oil-production-in-q4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 8.500722561417721e-05
3. Question: $BONK all time high be... | yes | 0.000167 | another-boeing-emergency-landing-by-friday | Another Boeing emergency landing by Friday? | 54,859,194 | 54,876,908 |
4725b2276acc06e3c3f8d84aaa11ed450609fd3b | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x054332f7e556bf009aca9f093a1f7ad7425cf7a5cc4b01fe3e04e20f1b62b3dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions?
Event: nba-champion-2023-24
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | nba-champion-2023-24 | Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | 61,031,550 | 61,031,550 |
7c57cf3109e15f9b7b4b0f0d492ebd4b86bede37 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Event: presidential-election-winner-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target ma... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,960,462 | 63,960,462 |
1276c23a87ed67b1c8a1a87a6d3ab06349ee3377 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x03d1d0d81a286acf53b88bcb72129db10eb4d30ea6366a59821c48a24b97b9f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Liverpo... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | 64,117,905 | 64,117,905 |
8da81559ee89b6ab7205a57a647da7f6fbaf362f | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x9286d97d2680340b71393353fc100a96ca40f98436241e54275ea4d38d385b00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | 65,110,715 | 65,110,715 |
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