sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
37f11ac8ad954945830f46648f787cb3f7cdfc82 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x0b5898d1c55fac1d6f6e16cb64cbfa57c8b98079a74a88b70ce927cb26cbe0b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-10? | 68,769,049 | 68,769,049 |
8484123b53849f56341d33e43174a3980f3363c1 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x32683a80b5523f3d504407f7c5f680e206c7c468f16027aa11f91ff8f2990e85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | uel-ajx-fra-2025-03-06 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-03-06? | 68,769,049 | 68,769,049 |
fe1d3d11f18b571d221d75e33e391157739a32bd | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x79b7bf06ea3da433c50cd395f898ee55537c7d9e86fd7e020066ced99a8f06c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Will Brighton win on 2024-12-05? | 68,769,049 | 68,769,049 |
54fe2959e7d1b5dcee57ca93cd855c19e9159fbb | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xef1f7f0bd9c057126f18c712aecdd38189171e7ca1551ed94ad23db5b21592f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-ips-2024-11-10 | Will Spurs vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | 68,769,049 | 68,769,049 |
ea82de96e94dd1b3f2040543e6c7d908968f75f1 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x11a71f51f620dc30aba9c2c087b44666be683840d5df9ca27a40dc60d679b790 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | epl-not-mun-2025-04-01 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-01? | 70,146,393 | 70,146,393 |
372df64d251e6fdc8fb48df89cb7f6e7c996243c | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x320045be25e331375755d9126cbe20a319ace7c7d9258227e3ccdc9267d786a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Arsenal wins the Premier League? | 70,977,506 | 70,977,506 |
8349ebe2221e244f8faaa7fbca27c4adeeea6ef4 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x87822b3d4ccba1835d698354b01c050b55f20c5f34b14908bff4ea5a6d58af4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 70,977,506 | 70,977,506 |
e32582ba63ce9c0a938d832f0e604cea565a9789 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x21d7c804b66f91d22c8b5979b447f9abccd551930640fa75af6ebc6896ac5aae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Will Spain beat Portugal? | 72,540,642 | 72,540,642 |
ffa96e635752ca50ff1e01be0ba932a1c455de82 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x08f33d1720f5988aae2065047a8575d8097c1cf6a7dd1b695a81331c63aa22b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-fc-porto | Will Inter Miami vs. FC Porto end in a draw? | 73,202,042 | 73,202,042 |
bfbc732a84236a9f39b781540a8dc5c2e239c29c | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xf2a89afeddff5315e37211b0b0e4e93ed167fba2694cd35c252672d0aca73711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 73,202,042 | 73,202,042 |
33564203af21e40d765d355f49838f5899c7bc11 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xd81b0ebfd6a48c9ef8456754afa5546cf659630874e86ea6d59390e3d5283f78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-ful-2025-08-16 | Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | 75,286,763 | 75,286,763 |
2ba761dc024d42c074e3973eaebcd6b91f546778 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xe64e73479ccc4ffa37316cbd959c3bb2b0580e9b4d2d198a57ceff577cd1f090 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | no | 1 | fl1-ogc-tou-2025-08-16 | Will OGC Nice win on 2025-08-16? | 75,295,470 | 75,295,470 |
07d840f076097b07f087d0f56d92373c28e03832 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x288bced3066dbd01c0c3a80be76c03de7694442cd241a15542891117997d3929 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | no | 1 | lal-ala-lev-2025-08-16 | Will Alaves vs. Levante UD end in a draw? | 75,296,241 | 75,296,241 |
106cb49f38005a50a4c7d219c6da33ec5ceafec2 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x6890f39e0bb7f48985442a969a9a3e08650cb457e6a3098bdc9229af24a9e61e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-17? | 75,337,311 | 75,337,311 |
520262d73cafb06eee03bcc9903462c8c0781199 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x516f98107695af425b0e93a6e8f8e6b5db71581591de1376912873a74de95087 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-new-york-city-vs-nashville | MLS: Will NYCFC vs. Nashville end in a draw? | 75,350,280 | 75,350,280 |
e8d6e5a34c7c43ed31bf86e7531c4cae3328c617 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x736f5563b7b183ff100b70de976e1401b583292f4f61d7607c000e498b1b61b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-san-jose-vs-san-diego | MLS: Will San Jose beat San Diego? | 75,350,280 | 75,350,280 |
dece628727be47f01f05c3622813f799586e16e9 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x9411151dd2e242ba474c84be9b496491d95187a375235365d97b4249c56307a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | no | 1 | lal-elc-bet-2025-08-18 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-18? | 75,383,028 | 75,383,028 |
7048113eab5d395635a0faf13ebb37865b72149a | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xa15b9dc7117cefcc4b87182526deba81fd67e541be7f08d8e0de6a6fd739ee41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | no | 1 | ucl-fer-kar-2025-08-19 | Will Ferencvaros win on 2025-08-19? | 75,434,484 | 75,434,484 |
65c7a974e40396816ee34613ddb36fdecef6fdb8 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xad7bfd20bc0b7cf6c854d08d31d708afd1c8ddeb375c66e8e2c6610e8a513fd8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | ucl-bod-sgr-2025-08-20 | Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-08-20? | 75,474,115 | 75,474,115 |
b38c005a8e15e1f1561fbe26c7ea1ffbb14779d7 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x3a215bec6f946cc1cdc6a7c84aac6feb6626f6a603a0d364c7080a832686059a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | uel-brn-lrn-2025-08-21 | Will Brann win on 2025-08-21? | 75,512,813 | 75,512,813 |
ea6971477b16a952d8f7140f50a4bacb026bce0c | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xc3c02b37ecc66124d0d823b0b53ff58b708e56beeaecb1c0abfa0b73d261d863 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | uel-zri-utr-2025-08-21 | Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-08-21? | 75,512,813 | 75,512,813 |
26f56a77ab16cef279fbe3372e9c9c7360b8188e | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xf2f9300b665851f67a229f124f64b5369738433b7a790acaa8f22f74920b40d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | bun-hei-wol-2025-08-23 | Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-08-23? | 75,568,351 | 75,568,351 |
64a537c0bad259f1a75f9b8a7fa3320563ed095c | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x29558811d6c7352b462209321655091d1c148a11a8703f2ba3c2d871131a899d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | no | 1 | lal-mal-cel-2025-08-23 | Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-08-23? | 75,570,805 | 75,570,805 |
746a0c97ac3c2b15b3d0d985b6310d875baa9823 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x0b6cbded17b641695ec9efe00da60389bb96bdfc07f4e49f0c33b307b979b646 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | lal-lev-bar-2025-08-23 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-23? | 75,595,507 | 75,595,507 |
145805d2be9ee4747d3fcfb923f527934965d2a6 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xc437bd059f25c833bf94c429a8358fd4b6f40e0b0810c3e62e75ee83f1929b2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | sea-sas-nap-2025-08-23 | Will Napoli win on 2025-08-23? | 75,595,507 | 75,595,507 |
9672f37908d85acf23c033fb3512f27b8951b8a6 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xb6706399e2932c2f522546ec9f14957359734c364204175dafd5fd3ab6f35bf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | no | 1 | epl-cry-not-2025-08-24 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-08-24? | 75,606,635 | 75,606,635 |
938a61305f79aaa2379ace4bdb38176c731310b6 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xa3fa285d08950deac70c531990888b1c3ec52b8439efacbcfffb46c71412605c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | no | 1 | bun-mai-koe-2025-08-24 | Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-08-24? | 75,607,665 | 75,607,665 |
41ede12c8b8d00056aa018191c3e4835c844eca5 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x57b53af900529843bd56d59ed5fc9b2803c8455498063de2666517028fc22898 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a... | no | 1 | sea-cag-fio-2025-08-24 | Will Fiorentina win on 2025-08-24? | 75,612,759 | 75,612,759 |
2274f8c7e13f5ceeadd8d30dab621652c9052593 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x0fd3636e701edbabffcd18b94cb8a43c26f60f2147c01545fd930ab055d1e79f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-che-ars-2024-11-... | yes | 1 | epl-new-liv-2025-08-25 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-25? | 75,673,074 | 75,673,074 |
54e67cd83e34f61854ce8e814100cb875de9d8e1 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x8e0f8955ed3502ae5c4bb6f3ca528f1640025c7fc6bd85481b619288d4d91ab4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-03-06? | Event: uel-ajx-fr... | yes | 1 | uef-ser-eng-2025-09-09 | Will England win on 2025-09-09? | 76,279,912 | 76,279,912 |
1d236758c569221bd793e543bb5b8475e981d760 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xf5ac02f4603e5bdf84ea212536ec51d895ffe35f7d93b1f21f08e9291438e34f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-03-06? | Event: uel-ajx-fra-2025-03-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-ful-bri-2024-12-0... | yes | 1 | uef-bih-aut-2025-09-09 | Will Austria win on 2025-09-09? | 76,279,912 | 76,279,912 |
7a1bb798b46d7e02b5a4f24684104c62cce20ca0 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x3587998f1689b1121c9497735ee5cfdb6d98c8c5b0179a78805438a5c69d63e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-03-06? | Event: uel-ajx-fra-2025-03-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-ips-202... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-tot-2025-09-13 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-13? | 76,430,879 | 76,430,879 |
33c08075c28280aefbaa65b603dfb9e9d46b77a4 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x345bfbb314e54b0e20a027dc087df0db51f511739bbbf5dbb06c330831d4a134 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-ips-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-01? | Event: epl-not-mun-2025-... | yes | 1 | fl1-str-hac-2025-09-14 | Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-09-14? | 76,472,344 | 76,472,344 |
c7eb1fbf8196e19c9563dd245826c0b1de9d7ba6 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x774c912a1bc4ac49a2416bcd09ffd45e89021f55f82277af6fc6faf765c6616a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-ips-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-01? | Event: epl-not-mun-2025-04-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Arsenal wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-wi... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? | 76,472,344 | 76,472,344 |
5d99db96bfe8e3dedec1a82ae7d3efdda4e945ff | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x8c5927af2b98879999712a217d1ff65d34c13ebadcb619007e4852ea76a7845c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-01? | Event: epl-not-mun-2025-04-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Arsenal wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Eve... | yes | 1 | ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | 76,552,861 | 76,552,861 |
abc492d1acd44e70ed99e62c43849c1b1e831198 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xc57c48ea08192107f7981b041ba115663b3d14935ea4315337a5e64351ddfa5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Arsenal wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-n... | yes | 1 | ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16? | 76,552,861 | 76,552,861 |
32c25aaa9d501f316493afa9991d5c4c1089b3fb | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xc964405e53d4e01e6c1a2b6e9303bf0d77f0600f6fc7a391532c01919f0c535d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Miami vs. FC Porto end in a... | yes | 1 | ucl-new-bar-2025-09-18 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? | 76,642,252 | 76,642,252 |
749f9acab6e85c4186cc16581d171119c14e6888 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xfac0ede906069601847057680d56bed30d17119988ecebb9b10be500abcd47bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Miami vs. FC Porto end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-fc-porto | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Indiana Pacers win the ... | no | 1 | uef-prt-hun-2025-10-14 | Will Portugal win on 2025-10-14? | 77,700,683 | 77,700,683 |
3706ab06b16f403d5821284e69c3828e186259eb | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xdf1fd2d26237c19c5cce5ab3c68e9406b383b8032606058ed55d15b525e9973f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Miami vs. FC Porto end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-fc-porto | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham... | yes | 1 | bra-bot-fla-2025-10-15 | Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-15? | 77,745,892 | 77,745,892 |
d1deb5905ea4b845c0291ba1aa7f636510161916 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x0f536944a97fdf84d82e0644da495d55e7f8f8d4028f23ce6fb94c3454fa54e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-... | no | 1 | bra-gre-sao-2025-10-16 | Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-10-16? | 77,792,037 | 77,792,037 |
332474032c6789562b8e598a099beef012565fe9 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xf40e6609e2248e3c86df5d9a1618427700ecf23a91c95c81ccafa7c5193e8d74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-tou-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alaves vs. Levante UD end in a draw? | Event: lal-ala-lev-2025... | yes | 1 | epl-not-che-2025-10-18 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-18? | 77,852,539 | 77,852,539 |
f0f028f822d5e1d8b5fa8d5756d596f6653d115e | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xfd5db367809c7009dfb0a1153c8dc6054b3ab2fcc8910ce0427cf7c15fb8a84d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-tou-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alaves vs. Levante UD end in a draw? | Event: lal-ala-lev-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 |... | yes | 1 | sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | 77,921,270 | 77,921,270 |
edddb79342aa8ddc0e4edc1b0e9ecc7625fb09b8 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0xa35a3616d7760750756c445dd2708f06cf37c5f84d96a70232bc31da1ba930fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alaves vs. Levante UD end in a draw? | Event: lal-ala-lev-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will NYCFC vs. Nashville end in a draw? | Event: mls-soccer-... | yes | 1 | mex-pac-tig-2025-10-22 | Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2025-10-22? | 78,051,388 | 78,051,388 |
c99671de6486e4e843afd67407960a8f4b83dcff | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x2428b9533849e9696b1b8f6cea9d8e3c9d30dc31abb32f4d7a8f69401be5dd88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will NYCFC vs. Nashville end in a draw? | Event: mls-soccer-new-york-city-vs-nashville | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will San Jose beat San Diego? | Event: mls... | yes | 1 | bun-dor-koe-2025-10-25 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-25? | 78,181,726 | 78,181,726 |
66fcfa606841a528fccc83466b72b7a05d144306 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x270e49036c5f2ed072c9680ec14a5a3e25a104d08e7074716c57cee1b115b50b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will NYCFC vs. Nashville end in a draw? | Event: mls-soccer-new-york-city-vs-nashville | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will San Jose beat San Diego? | Event: mls-soccer-san-jose-vs-san-diego | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-18? |... | yes | 1 | lib-pal-lqu-2025-10-30 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-30? | 78,394,868 | 78,394,868 |
4cb7c6c0d9ace20f1feba47de33be4aa632715df | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x971b6376b65b1d76ddd60143143b5d68b129de1f91033a2d074c6ef2e2158ae4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will San Jose beat San Diego? | Event: mls-soccer-san-jose-vs-san-diego | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-18? | Event: lal-elc-bet-2025-08-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ferencvaros win on 2025-08-19? | Event: ucl-fer-kar-2025... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | 78,836,803 | 78,836,803 |
9647489fa8881714f7c328a78236bb1171d1e2a6 | 0x0d0a656afe48bf3326d5fbb70b05cf2a7d3f0809 | 0x1e6c9bde92fd3270f09ee4b26b69454dac206068d54c54180046ae63ebeb1f9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-18? | Event: lal-elc-bet-2025-08-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ferencvaros win on 2025-08-19? | Event: ucl-fer-kar-2025-08-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-08-20? | Event: ucl-bod-sgr-2025-08-20 | C... | yes | 1 | cof-gua-pan-2025-11-13 | Will Panama win on 2025-11-13? | 79,012,404 | 79,012,404 |
052a88c745d01c4291f9874ac66f34917f4f32c2 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x3a83776f859ee91717a106c3409a7fc7e20b74248feec728f461e4376a54ac4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup?
Event: nba-cup-winner-164
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | nba-cup-winner-164 | Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | 79,359,455 | 79,359,455 |
c9fdb967d1882dd2f6e2aa96d14579808390f134 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x5485160782ec3edabe0ea0ad3b6c5526c82c567dcfa55e8ffc31eda21bbc9235 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup?
Event: nba-cup-winner-164
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ...... | no | 1 | nba-cup-winner-164 | Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | 79,359,455 | 79,359,455 |
7c2c00e481671fcb808317f996d5efa4095bc883 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x1c075490e264701cb3dc33293b63557cc40d0e835ae6c1c125b8b9f9cd9d7d80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22?
Event: epl-ne... | no | 1 | epl-new-mac-2025-11-22 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | 79,373,746 | 79,373,746 |
eac4651f322e761e19e66c5222edc892b071418c | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xf9915c09cfdb45b8ba1335620c1da05d12913ad1d43bbb15832a93609212c27e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? | 79,423,991 | 79,423,991 |
cd783bb0741f3dbbe450eb2c00d82a3b9863193c | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x1fc7febea6f21322383a5a2e5f8e54339c19e91ec583b8bf57ccd4540552a695 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | nfl-best-regular-season-team | Will the New York Jets finish with the best record in the NFL? | 79,424,267 | 79,424,267 |
6ec9c13b9c3ca102e3d06b6c9593b52578a0eada | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x1f5d02ceb0e5810f1ebe8fe0f0eacf4cf62224ff28e000d21b5ab89426e5bf6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | afc-west-winner-1 | Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West? | 79,426,051 | 79,426,051 |
d17614896aaea2b706324bf999578d60083702c3 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xf11d57a354e2bc92ff81eb9dd4136a2af11168c06a68ba85a2d266bbbefd3e6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | nfc-west-winner-1 | Will the Arizona Cardinals win the NFC West? | 79,497,520 | 79,497,520 |
d11b6269486c498ce7bab815c3d110c552a90ff5 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xd02ee6284701277aba9de3233255185875355b0c834f462fb37393a2428d1458 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-bog-juv-2025-11-25 | Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | 79,507,474 | 79,507,474 |
8dbdd039da19f8bc6412414120a8fdddb81396ef | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x60a006d0360545ce1f132407bef7e9d25a8b9b785908afc1818d736ef13b352e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-cfc-fcb1-2025-11-25 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25? | 79,507,483 | 79,507,483 |
68f5edb3a2666a0c3319989ddd53f9718fea7e4a | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x781552f853e1a55a5d558d816ea8f86680a29f3e3ec02588727ca89e98c3b332 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-25? | 79,507,483 | 79,507,483 |
8d9324c7dccf6a26209d1769e8da601a8d13dd97 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x386f1ea67671de2ad5ae35898f7fcad6f399e6869f1b537b8bd44cd41aa3ce7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-slp1-ath1-2025-11-25 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-25? | 79,507,909 | 79,507,909 |
aa674b65aeb5dc923388144539ca7a94d4a3e9ab | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x214cd37f77cfde315763bfc9fc31c629cbc7b16f53f8f061af989434b6405da1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-psg1-tot-2025-11-26 | Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-11-26? | 79,550,724 | 79,550,724 |
16d7c23693e5046d9d202ce9c171745a9200eee1 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x881ff9b92b7d9b4506307c1fcb49c9caba79d806fcbeb16a6796d455532380d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-ars1-bay1-2025-11-26 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? | 79,550,724 | 79,550,724 |
5da7d663b1d657f92395ac5e3d5ec20b7101d1eb | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xc71ec6617d1781dc31c9882952d8a5661cb615cd57115631eaac5bffa061fabb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | yes | 1 | ucl-oly1-rma1-2025-11-26 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? | 79,550,724 | 79,550,724 |
92ab026e7477fd32ff60e983385c7f3935940742 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xe7b80bfc298f92f43e51fa84a9ab8ae72cab43975ad5ab0738a8ca9f0896f5a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-spo1-bru-2025-11-26 | Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-26? | 79,550,724 | 79,550,724 |
a1da84e78fa89ad7fbbb292421b7d770b944c708 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x2b675c44bc590c80d65b1b87eb201ad053e01a1ebe7bbb014f39bfb51ddc6e7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-atm1-int-2025-11-26 | Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-26? | 79,550,910 | 79,550,910 |
da5e09d11d3d541d363b1bff393f65d17d630ef9 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x010a21eeb92b3be6eb182524fbb0bb27d1cbeab538c612ad8dbef2cff7866f94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | nba-cup-winner-164 | Will the Chicago Bulls win the NBA Cup? | 79,561,039 | 79,561,039 |
52513a677586427cae39c3f68c5e9a919d8cde8a | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x0eeffcffc2be2a9fa2c1564edcc3c421147e9a14e7649d515c1020fb1c39634d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | nba-cup-winner-164 | Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Cup? | 79,561,039 | 79,561,039 |
825072012e98fcb80814c665caa7360ad60a0448 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x36411745c132aa1924f5fd6e4d4cbb6a87ced4226ac08d5f27c015d9c0ceba6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | nba-cup-winner-164 | Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Cup? | 79,561,039 | 79,561,039 |
022c62c90c1d25070a2c179b86e2e5ad2d0d8fb1 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x3da0701fbea76ed1f74f5a6449626181053cf1463fc97c65cc96d9cdc722ec4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | nba-cup-winner-164 | Will the Sacramento Kings win the NBA Cup? | 79,561,039 | 79,561,039 |
1b0b88853654aca4d6b14cb650bc4c9a6cc0edec | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x3f20f83381ff99908041cf0d0f81467bdaf2f63a176e48b4b107a54ca0d08df6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | nba-cup-winner-164 | Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Cup? | 79,561,039 | 79,561,039 |
698cba9e07dc005439487e4da033034d6cb29881 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x4e4755ba8127c1a987d8ddd292b003208d0bb3ff62ab2432c7bf7b21f43145d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | nba-cup-winner-164 | Will the Brooklyn Nets win the NBA Cup? | 79,561,039 | 79,561,039 |
e4df0cefc77a4b004da616550b70134e90c7751a | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x80e45763cbddd1e0c83b439adfd18d01218ca7b12896091ccf75c10f8e00f6f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | nba-cup-winner-164 | Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Cup? | 79,561,039 | 79,561,039 |
29f041945e328e67361c26f35d327a62d740dc57 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xd842618ea7af960d5502c0a8e362e773ef79222dcae650314b41d1ded9cd2d22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | nba-cup-winner-164 | Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Cup? | 79,561,039 | 79,561,039 |
93b215e6eea9e974a385d7245bcf56ce952d2d82 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xc497f1ebe1bd67defd4484935758d242523b29ee36283025c16a32e4ddfb46b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | nba-cup-winner-164 | Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the NBA Cup? | 79,568,424 | 79,568,424 |
3ba96704b1fdcc19764fa512199f0a73ee3584ce | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x200059f95efd3c1ef2575bf93743f8802bc01ad4d6ddb2d57c11f3fd602f73a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | chiefs | 0 | nfl-kc-dal-2025-11-27 | Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) | 79,593,286 | 79,593,286 |
973e23169d164dd45cb890780ce7f021b650cef1 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x3b14bcbefb1dda7b5fc7388fc56181f42e3117f74d42b0c2667ba11fc30cfc3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | chiefs | 0 | nfl-kc-dal-2025-11-27 | Spread: Cowboys (-3.5) | 79,593,289 | 79,593,289 |
b39259ff0b20ff664994a3c21c09c99a1ce841bb | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xb2595f495e515768f893ae751f6d827226b2b567e23405d9b224248c57780665 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | yes | 0.934102 | nfl-turkey-day-winners-parlay | Will the Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers, and Dallas Cowboys all win on Thanksgiving? | 79,599,741 | 79,607,482 |
09752993498290092ea81ee2441a2e4ff7e275db | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x3d1514cc99404ca9ebb93b68349fb01c096e3c272ac252d16bef89ff025b07ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | nfl-turkey-day-winners-parlay | Will the Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers, and Kansas City Chiefs all win on Thanksgiving? | 79,604,247 | 79,604,247 |
de17b05c91201f5a87cf1e2b169d7f37eb19f3c1 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x5ef8ab49d7fb5d87edc091ea85bdbd2dab78627b4265b25006b37e7b45b4392c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | nfl-turkey-day-winners-parlay | Will the Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, and Kansas City Chiefs all win on Thanksgiving? | 79,604,247 | 79,604,247 |
13fc55c67c732bb1b490c46b5d88f9e5452a36b0 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x9861765b0eb459ae6f07a5c45c5b1600ba51a97b3b6e5af457725f5fffc1b17a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-... | no | 1 | nfl-turkey-day-winners-parlay | Will the Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, and Dallas Cowboys all win on Thanksgiving? | 79,604,247 | 79,604,247 |
ee7b0e9ff4c03ef8d886b9c6818b578bc97fc668 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x9f98ba3b1c1bbc9cd57bf368f7c0fafa65bedf683194a3e6a5e771a585c66b6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-11-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: sup... | no | 1 | nfl-turkey-day-winners-parlay | Will the Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, and Kansas City Chiefs all win on Thanksgiving? | 79,604,247 | 79,604,247 |
eaa3acf9bb0f72856f7ccd1424f7553bcbc579ab | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x0e51b79d30b3d2c9477f3b2814c2ad12c4fce59900b9b95d80151fd9a363d9f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? | Event: epl-new-mac-2025-11-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the New York Jets finish with the best recor... | no | 1 | nfl-turkey-day-winners-parlay | Will the Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, and Dallas Cowboys all win on Thanksgiving? | 79,607,482 | 79,607,482 |
413c01d55940dcb775c790feaae816b8ef23fa5e | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x814698cc42050bc20881608aa92da9c9ada8bfe607a837f6cc29f116bf4567df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? | Event: super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Jets finish with the best record in the NFL? | Event: nfl-best-regular-season-team | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Las Vegas R... | no | 1 | nba-cup-winner-164 | Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Cup? | 79,648,364 | 79,648,364 |
120d45bedeef6148ea77b4e6d93ce254e38022ac | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xa5ef3b64322213075f7733115645730333130fa32528a4a0dcefa610fbfbc849 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the New York Jets finish with the best record in the NFL? | Event: nfl-best-regular-season-team | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West? | Event: afc-west-winner-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Arizona Cardinals win t... | no | 1 | nba-cup-winner-164 | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Cup? | 79,648,364 | 79,648,364 |
4feff72ce7a2a91a80a16f9b1611fff06bd2b62f | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x79e2fa672a6043a1c333766cb4ac2257336f305f9672b9c38da9aa18aa237f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the AFC West? | Event: afc-west-winner-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Arizona Cardinals win the NFC West? | Event: nfc-west-winner-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-bog-juv-2025... | no | 1 | nfc-south-winner-11 | Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the NFC South? | 79,667,029 | 79,667,029 |
9bb61d950b2e33a03242d6e225800ae34acb8625 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x0f60fabd4b40c750138bce1eff67d7d462e5952db625ae6f239bb62e35fc2300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Arizona Cardinals win the NFC West? | Event: nfc-west-winner-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-bog-juv-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-cfc-fcb1-2025-1... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-lee-2025-11-29 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-29? | 79,671,738 | 79,672,058 |
015bdbb3dadee727bdd9221525d83f81ac03b109 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xa790cb05ee2705b52a9ed0c95a0b4f81be56705bc5906813d8b3972e2c509b81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-bog-juv-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-cfc-fcb1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025... | no | 1 | epl-not-bri-2025-11-30 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-30? | 79,713,492 | 79,713,492 |
42e118c973868ff374f9d24045630359fa4c3a73 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xca08054fa12004ca5741b2e34e17002f60c14232c154ae350898f4d1211fbf7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-cfc-fcb1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-slp1-ath1-... | no | 1 | epl-wes-liv-2025-11-30 | Will West Ham win on 2025-11-30? | 79,713,492 | 79,713,492 |
6b92bf50c97c18b8d74fa0c55fb8d3d97a97a872 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xba15eb296ce5e11a52d9439a3836f5a65e70118447f3576687caa43c0216d748 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-slp1-ath1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-11-26? | Event: ucl-p... | no | 1 | nfc-north-winner-11 | Will the Minnesota Vikings win the NFC North? | 79,758,524 | 79,758,524 |
bb138d7a97b54544cd7a3b95af71dcf0764d2082 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xd17b6435b7742ac0e437489f4c6d43e84714aa92863085e0550e21e604383b00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-25? | Event: ucl-slp1-ath1-2025-11-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-11-26? | Event: ucl-psg1-tot-2025-11-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? | Event: ucl-... | yes | 1 | f1-drivers-champion | Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | 79,758,631 | 79,769,389 |
02cdd27a47cbf860a02ba16d4108db53afc36308 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xe3afb091ba0c2bd1d0660ac9256f37e0c7560b02eee15641c6cce6ceb62f3769 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-11-26? | Event: ucl-psg1-tot-2025-11-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? | Event: ucl-ars1-bay1-2025-11-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? | Event: ucl... | no | 0.999997 | f1-drivers-champion | Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | 79,758,647 | 79,769,405 |
3798fe75d7e233c03aadb1c2d6ce1dfb3fe7c897 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xbc807bc266428781aabc8e921b10ce82561a0e9c95496fb8d75347f2546cdd00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? | Event: ucl-ars1-bay1-2025-11-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? | Event: ucl-oly1-rma1-2025-11-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-26? | Event: ucl-spo... | yes | 1 | american-conference-championship-game-winner | Will Tulane win the 2025 American Conference Championship Game? | 79,767,667 | 79,797,263 |
6057ad472dee1b6567ee8498e993787a28cd5825 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x3bd126a00373f3295a8fe08f3bf319de6eb5ac62475380f5d05dac455a6a2000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? | Event: ucl-oly1-rma1-2025-11-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-26? | Event: ucl-spo1-bru-2025-11-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-26? | Event: u... | yes | 1 | sun-belt-championship-game-winner | Will James Madison win the 2025 Sun Belt Conference Championship Game? | 79,767,900 | 79,811,882 |
f708c78c43f738a7edd242a061e6c6d00808fb58 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x3966bc77b015453bb478ba8c1a21ce022a562dd36a0332597e245ce5e16b6e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-26? | Event: ucl-spo1-bru-2025-11-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-26? | Event: ucl-atm1-int-2025-11-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Chicago Bulls win the NBA Cup? | Event: nb... | no | 1 | conference-usa-championship-game-winner | Will Liberty win the 2025 Conference USA Championship Game? | 79,811,873 | 79,811,873 |
e0ec22ac20dbfcb4edd1d847052b0f471a70b8f5 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x3246942a58f67b03adf45f5d3f7d94084c6cb2f4b34e19a898bc54993cb6b200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-26? | Event: ucl-atm1-int-2025-11-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Chicago Bulls win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Cup? | Event... | no | 1 | 2025-acc-championship-game-winner | Will Clemson win the 2025 ACC Conference Championship Game? | 79,814,059 | 79,814,059 |
60ffa103028cff525f4046ac3d9194350e74c7ea | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x0080c9a4f9c8b5c81e3584590429ac41bdae68ef102a9f01fb0d529f12b01c18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago Bulls win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-wi... | no | 0 | college-football-playoff-which-teams-make-it | Will Indiana make the College Football Playoff? | 79,814,172 | 79,814,172 |
f2acf37961f26fd6a44f0ecb55e55f63c238bb2c | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x1404e0b58e79b8c05e2d991c977a2222a0243464241f87be93cf610c640637b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Sacramento Kings win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup... | no | 1 | epl-liv-sun-2025-12-03 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-03? | 79,858,916 | 79,858,916 |
cd8ac2508b5b2f2d03b8579068164a4c588f7307 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0x2461f2fa8dbbbda837613571a66b39e53f5f0ab54fe7f0d8f2064785b69243c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Sacramento Kings win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cu... | no | 1 | epl-lee-che-2025-12-03 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03? | 79,858,916 | 79,858,916 |
f7fb7c9865bb797b5bc818620d5493a57e72748a | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xc1edb83dff24509fb2f2abc27f21bfe94e3950c7436d266746190af587158d0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Sacramento Kings win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Brooklyn Nets win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-... | no | 1 | itc-int-ven-2025-12-03 | Will Venezia FC win on 2025-12-03? | 79,858,916 | 79,858,916 |
e62a7f91dbc7e6c302dc85b62f3b999f1cbf7c79 | 0x0d16999d6ba24c2c2c8bff93f91014cc43fad24d | 0xf0ba59d1991ef3969a33ad193c7ece268b938c094ce4b0e666cfbbab012ac910 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Brooklyn Nets win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup-winner-164 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Cup? | Event: nba-cup... | no | 1 | epl-lee-che-2025-12-03 | Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? | 79,858,933 | 79,858,933 |
964baf33eca55a9136c8896fa55a3ef165efd4b0 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x066adc83194bbee6b705199d20f8c1579360f4d873cf342f231cdacd342abb1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth
Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | duckworth | 1 | wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | 73,438,425 | 73,438,425 |
51cc58c79fb4fb1e36bd8d58cbe6004d0a31dc9f | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x7dfbb35a03a30efe1d4d179da323f81211dbb82a5f7261de4924379ac24de63c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July?
Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the ... | no | 1 | will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | 73,438,425 | 73,438,425 |
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