sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2a97fe5db7e7121bcd42ba4ca1735d0bb38ef41c | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0xe34f990ccaa5948f76f2d740727d0e477a89f2327dc6346912e58180b882c101 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on May 29? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-may-29-422 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-29-342 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 29? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-may-29-7... | no | 0.829158 | bitcoin-price-on-june-10-267 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on June 10? | 72,610,239 | 72,610,239 |
3abbfbe40c84728f123c4af3504feed5b71f7d33 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0xbaccfe7acb5924afb673413946562c78437598fd7ff1c3d4b8a550f7e320ede8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-29-342 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 29? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-may-29-754 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on May 30? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down... | yes | 0.752562 | bitcoin-price-on-june-10-267 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on June 10? | 72,610,241 | 72,610,241 |
a7a89787db1314493402e3ac86785510d062da9c | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x3fb5da9f36a911e0891e6d8fae2427fdb74ffaf684c70c90183fd9a7e03bd09a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 29? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-may-29-754 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on May 30? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-may-30 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-above-2800... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-10 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 10? | 72,610,242 | 72,610,242 |
89d070710a694ffdc02b8010bee0ce4c76a69d53 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x26217feab892b5a04c0f40ffcd40dac06c874ccafde3daad865d1537d7f6b750 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on May 30? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-may-30 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-above-2800-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 1? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-ju... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-10 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 10? | 72,610,244 | 72,610,244 |
cc60f50d642fbe1789612d8bf393ba80576ed406 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0xf47e21b8c4127b07350f22829ce81a7acde604ad51014c6c83d783c0adf6f8aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum above $2,800 on May 30? | Event: ethereum-above-2800-on-may-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 1? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-1 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 1? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-10-267 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $105K on June 10? | 72,610,248 | 72,610,248 |
52f0cf298b3159a3a8db2da291e0f867624abe56 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x43c152972c5b9dd5b169fd7f3904ff815e39ce50e0a9e3d5d945c6581e815948 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 1? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-1 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 1? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-1 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 1? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-1 | Choice:... | up | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-12 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? | 72,687,718 | 72,687,718 |
ad74da1ebff4e691df95a4e14f9d1334e24d4a1c | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x55af14db3172c07227718aad219e850c3a0c40e993a11ae0b6ad50b249fd4564 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 1? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-1 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 1? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-1 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 3? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-3 | Choice: up | ... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-12 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? | 72,687,721 | 72,687,721 |
268a98b0f589fffa60b66c60befa374225ddbcc2 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x038505dbd0a49afcfbbf6d8be92e096fc538641cac07ae01d242c4861b544df0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 1? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-1 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 3? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-3 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 4? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choice: down | Co... | up | 1 | xrp-up-or-down-on-june-12 | XRP Up or Down on June 12? | 72,687,727 | 72,687,727 |
ef9ce921ec85822f67521d7234d7f3ba39a85905 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0xc22a3b95a18a6879d843f79ca1d33ce1d72bf9774c18c05c33e9816798c0df13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 3? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-3 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 4? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choic... | down | 1 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-12 | Solana Up or Down on June 12? | 72,687,729 | 72,687,729 |
18e6f9d58927d1bd4f7be75471bd59a9f365cba6 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x188033df5d62d51ad0e274714e093fc69a91b1b2c38512615aa5282c81de8ba8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 4? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 4? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Cho... | up | 1 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-13 | Solana Up or Down on June 13? | 72,732,323 | 72,732,323 |
286ca3b5e23d1f931440fa416d43a22a54de6a29 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x44a8080028f9fbeca18b7fe1d793aa36a91a8d2420fc96ca3a8e66575ff57a3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 4? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 5? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-5 | Cho... | no | 0.941697 | bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 13? | 72,732,326 | 72,732,326 |
e312d8a2b06c1164feb017170d26dfd5a1d1f1ac | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0xebada7867635947e99dc0e9c5f20ada6e0774844c86b017181fc33c0e1bd3473 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 4? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 5? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-5 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-5 | Cho... | no | 0.925937 | ethereum-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 13? | 72,732,328 | 72,732,328 |
26bb16dc09e12f270523df9340841e6d3de85531 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x8158dbb8b959c290c75749ccbd3716ca5dcf0cd18a08400d082b3cd6514ba1f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 5? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-5 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-5 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-6... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 13? | 72,732,330 | 72,732,330 |
d2f7feac0cd9140a3aeb1555306e0a0f3c132f2c | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x360a18696cee2abb957b7e1fcf87a368052faf773dbfab96c7242669a2e1a7c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-5 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-6-952 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 6? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-6-5... | yes | 0.935518 | bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 13? | 72,732,331 | 72,732,331 |
757c03238285419422e1ea20c9ae3f16918253fe | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x7669928da7b68f5993dab63465e28f5fc4f18f9384e12aedf41dc3b53a5c0db1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-6-952 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 6? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-6-584 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 6? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-6... | no | 0.84703 | bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 13? | 72,732,333 | 72,732,333 |
6ad176142810379cb9ac1c42375822a20baf985a | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x3d1fd102ec74088ef809f35eb84019cb849a1277bcf4bda80f8ee17c09a9e49c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 6? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-6-584 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 6? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-6-476 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 13? | 72,732,335 | 72,732,335 |
ca6d7f59555d9f30c607e06141e4de4075bdf1b6 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x3619f068f8c436835e108d1935ad71b2a4fd36e091d453278c787abc26293527 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 6? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-6-476 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-8 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 8? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-8 | C... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 13? | 72,732,341 | 72,732,341 |
b92dc3c0a9708bc400c09dd411f60ec32948f668 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0xb3d550101d0d1c0f722c3654e2f9b5b07a3fcbb7e1d4f9be5aaeef4e048635b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-8 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 8? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-8 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 8? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-8 | Choic... | no | 0.992573 | bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $102K on June 13? | 72,732,344 | 72,732,344 |
cc5ece67fdf7939a19e05957688718f5b6adf510 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x3e394d97fae9f159a9f84fc3937bc5f2ecba545cca00aa160a5d3d60297fa98e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on June 8? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-june-8 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 8? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-8 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.875
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on June 9? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-june-9 | Choic... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 13? | 72,732,347 | 72,732,347 |
21f150c775fd3e503552b83f060d5d49266cf364 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x0b50343b9456ca06ec8760044c8140a84daa9cd6b1ecc5b80bc6780a8ddc04a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series?
Event: of-games-nba-finals
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | of-games-nba-finals | 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | 58,272,599 | 58,272,599 |
8f43ef2de876d0f612db6ff634498a52d71ffd67 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xf58869505d8daf39296c96bb94609c84ef94cd60cc6c3ffc860439c124d0dfd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0?
Event: series-outcome-nba-final
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice"... | no | 1 | series-outcome-nba-final | Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | 58,272,625 | 58,272,625 |
8f5ecf5b3f94e73a22bb18954effc57964982f6f | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xc0c103bfff5feed463fe91d68e2950418f01310d9c2f874e01df1870c630b184 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2?
... | yes | 1 | series-outcome-nba-final | Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | 58,272,645 | 58,272,645 |
09f60a5198724a14c68a36f2c3e0e75975108d62 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x0af3301709217424cf6f3f0a99b6629cffaf4b94566c5621c443e80c7057b132 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | top-rebounder-nba-finals | Will Luka Doncic be the top rebounder for the 2024 NBA Finals? | 58,312,486 | 58,312,486 |
842e5ddca6be8b94eb7cc477a2f3d88afaf7d86b | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x0c64bac020b90b8e9289119a3504bd09b2f1869d12311a102cb60f17b8df238a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | no | 1 | of-games-nba-finals | 7 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | 58,312,486 | 58,312,486 |
52e19a2f04bd5d7f4470c046a30d94ffcbc3ffc3 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x2119320c7e26ec6290868d908eb13932d2d10183ddf422eb00ed19778d24ac43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | no | 1 | series-outcome-nba-final | Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-3 | 58,312,486 | 58,312,486 |
e988734a54dcf83966c77b9894dde20395c0b350 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x215b126fcb4d4da3475b4495684bc3ae1418127c6d75cdffa11744a8efa4b5e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | no | 1 | series-outcome-nba-final | Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-3? | 58,312,486 | 58,312,486 |
c0eaa06c863c2e292d3e26bdcd8b6f503b5a72c4 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x3ad78f9ead6106d42190b24a9c081a1f7a496b833bfc2ea877220c257a75434c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | series-outcome-nba-final | Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | 58,312,486 | 58,312,486 |
a87d2512887b55e518a2246e285ed86ea9a39a07 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xf2226e5d8c2b1863594f570da7cae85799c7718b33f8223c0d3d5eeb9e9873bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | top-scorer-nba-finals | Luka Doncic top scorer in NBA Finals? | 58,312,486 | 58,312,486 |
f9c31f174add3f5c7de9172251d0135aa3247e26 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xe2761a02b2cb5dab64a9ac080ea75722bbf6b14daabfb3e7b950ebbf1abc3602 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Will Turkey win? | 58,327,246 | 58,327,246 |
df464be08f9156d9803481462c648322324a38d7 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x523aaf21d44e9f89e09759c19f8ccec5b9f7a847e5edb733c1006204d4e0be48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-portugal-vs-czechia | Will Portugal win? | 58,359,230 | 58,359,230 |
9e460e47e7ad9a9a32a9835d5285e71f6f2be5b1 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x7d1e2791209512673c12481b6bf87329c2ec65e534f8aca7c731ec2cf1b444bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-croatia-vs-albania | Will Croatia win? | 58,359,230 | 58,359,230 |
173a2606a27f67d806db60ffe92b547fc1694461 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x00170a925d97ede2ef8ac1c2dc4bc176ee011482b35653c01ef354469d7c76d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-germany-vs-hungary | Will Germany win? | 58,399,864 | 58,399,864 |
524bf28fb4bfb7f81a98775f89971f3c4c472c43 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x3dc69a2da7f4c9c4c7d558b2c2b884f66000475bce834e884c92eec96d2bf1c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-group-a-winner | Will Germany win Group A? | 58,552,353 | 58,552,353 |
878db39e7804ce454d96c1319c687cdd135c200b | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xdd569a7ce6a80e8c8892f86d4e969fccfe3a5998a674a09f50c3605d3a4b467f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-group-f-winner | Will Portugal win Group F? | 58,552,353 | 58,552,353 |
c410c9371dcb87c933d7bddffc9cefa5ac2a66f1 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x6060eee47f094ca68941003911c5c442a210d2a86c89b0b96e29beb0463d05ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | nhl-champion-2024 | Florida Panthers win the 2024 Stanley Cup? | 58,840,026 | 58,840,026 |
ee1260c18c07017c1962b3463bbe5dfbd8eb9752 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x93e3d5b50da3c4bd98c527d8d34195f3adb10198c7c45f36c1e09f4efd63ebca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | no | 1 | euro-2024-group-d-winner | Will France win Group D? | 58,840,026 | 58,840,026 |
5a3ecb0445f6ee647290edd685d7b1930fe9abaa | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x97587696745eda390f2f350edd200144bab259c4bd4851c3c504e4facbcaf5d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-group-c-winner | Will England win Group C? | 58,840,026 | 58,840,026 |
ee75601e0fe2dbb56a0104d7bc879b1338635a55 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x2872724760317eef3a1c4aa18b64ed3bf633bbdb656ec1fd34fd65b876672c5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | no | 1 | euro-2024-winner | Will Portugal win the 2024 Euros? | 59,162,875 | 59,162,875 |
10f4887e87b95e5c00a668fb6beeae6b9fa434ab | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xd0b560de1f572d4b12aac21a1f84c603b2552625ca5e5e8abbf2fa543dfb52b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | no | 1 | euro-2024-top-scorer | Will Cristiano Ronaldo be Euro 2024 top scorer? | 59,162,875 | 59,162,875 |
49f75e26c8035d2088d2198e3485b8ae75d7f9e7 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xfb919ad74a714edb12eff8b9ac4014831d092e5a1db6018e2c2c73ef559ca1ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | no | 1 | euro-2024-winner | Will Germany win the 2024 Euros? | 59,162,875 | 59,162,875 |
727e4f9bf22ae3aa1ff3e91e6676439732342768 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x0f6855164a94e16612cbbf7fde462e17d7fddcc803c45beef70eb96494791c9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | no | 1 | euro-2024-top-scorer | Will Kylian Mbappe be Euro 2024 top scorer? | 59,239,935 | 59,239,935 |
c63b1d93c0e274a3b38ae36cb6ded07613cb4753 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x433c8543ba40a240129348499daf2e8e81497fa04b0de931c1384cdc936a1f8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | no | 1 | euro-2024-winner | Will France win the 2024 Euros? | 59,239,935 | 59,239,935 |
02f79190d31997309e0d23dc47b4407b8edf70be | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xbad5c040f90e0802524588d975d5db28cf286542efb6e04ef1f7db3793953584 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | no | 1 | copa-america-winner | Uruguay wins Copa America 2024? | 59,239,935 | 59,239,935 |
67bdc16b7719e57a681604a5bc0c8095eb8b1725 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x5c7f5407e4a442219c098d0632c211ee7fa52be0c8211906b461102b2e86da15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | no | 0.99045 | euro-2024-winner | Will the Netherlands win the 2024 Euros? | 59,757,978 | 59,757,978 |
09c6cf79a71a11f1490d0af03479d3e0bab60516 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x229698a09fd7f46161a64fbf7983cdff7f1bdbf67f8e9c954a7ac5992be32a3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | 60,502,593 | 60,502,593 |
0fc0e5928e5d4de995d63c76d3e2e3a8c8efedb5 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x604699c465b190fdd1929338d726616411ff3cf6123fb0d604dda0181d34976c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | 60,502,593 | 60,502,593 |
f879e3a4a71cc97606fca91edb50666405a49ec2 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x02a86b9c8a85e3e148d8362059355f7d2fac8959e15661c68fccdd65fb901397 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | tennessee-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Tennessee Presidential Election? | 63,957,746 | 63,957,746 |
84cbdb1886754619fcc85129ac5c781cbd240afc | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x0a573d0d2e1f013707b2b6b5429b35db371fdb31f67909ed719abb381b1de6e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election? | 63,957,746 | 63,957,746 |
f4ce7ba14d11ddb55e70527f9887d0387a84c187 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x1630375788f4a5dd623f97dcf6024614e22430b25742db46a05c47d06f1948dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | louisiana-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Louisiana Presidential Election? | 63,957,746 | 63,957,746 |
b3a531fb51c19b07f864cde31b14f52a850aa3b4 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x18d7f68219da72acdf1ed86ad3e42d56f4b450e170944f5b25babb8278adab8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: seri... | yes | 1 | south-dakota-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win South Dakota Presidential Election? | 63,957,746 | 63,957,746 |
595c2820afe33d794428760283c537eab7bc628c | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x253d32feaaee1bc6eaa4e147470d33c2f4638224eae188960653486e5bf658db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-0? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Luka Doncic be the top rebounder for ... | yes | 1 | washington-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Washington Presidential Election? | 63,957,746 | 63,957,746 |
072f00c16f2374611d5ab10a54cbfe11b27ae724 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x6d7d4e3ab72647d19691db9d458902ea3243db75fdf474fcbe8a1b3f51dfa449 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luka Doncic be the top rebounder for the 2024 NBA Finals? | Event: top-rebounder-nba-finals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 7 games in Celtics v. Ma... | yes | 1 | world-series-champion-2024 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the World Series? | 63,957,746 | 63,957,746 |
a728f7a24d6ee12ba2239d68b27b3f22224b16d9 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x773f3ca26bdf685da92d2a8a701dd98e4e8b46e0b5366cf09aed9eb8fb6fc189 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luka Doncic be the top rebounder for the 2024 NBA Finals? | Event: top-rebounder-nba-finals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 7 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-... | yes | 1 | north-carolina-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election? | 63,957,746 | 63,957,746 |
35ae1ffe46cd41b5432e7850279f10d4a55546ca | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xf15c3b1459441d68519b4a698e8b971ffc9001d8a0438010e8acc2d0fc083c75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 7 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Event: of-games-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-3 | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-3? | Event: serie... | yes | 1 | iowa-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Iowa Presidential Election? | 63,957,746 | 63,957,746 |
03a041fdb8a61210070c08d716555242e8ead89e | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x835f8d053046b9ef189c3216b75d46a2d2fb8a27a7e65d4ff09ef7c14699e73e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-3 | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-3? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2... | yes | 1 | world-series-champion-2024 | Will the New York Yankees win the World Series? | 63,957,754 | 63,957,754 |
e6eea7799e753f475ec49fd3422d86ee02dbbbc5 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xa27d553772b21262ee2dca7ab85ba3e010b083e2d63096503cda3397bc411e18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-3? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Luka Doncic top scorer in NBA Finals? | Ev... | yes | 1 | world-series-champion-2024 | Will the Cleveland Guardians win the World Series? | 63,957,754 | 63,957,754 |
dd1c49cfb962ef0e54452aa7de0ca034c223e1af | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xc339a51acd7e974d793fad39d362ea7c2439fee4c003146a133bbbb8760cc4f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals 4-2? | Event: series-outcome-nba-final | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Luka Doncic top scorer in NBA Finals? | Event: top-scorer-nba-finals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Cho... | yes | 1 | world-series-champion-2024 | Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series? | 63,957,754 | 63,957,754 |
b6957b5522d1ffc7c114c4d953b5290d16ea9ed0 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x009f3196eb90f47b7eb23e1cc0b06759806df193ec58a0dab081eaabbe8a1310 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Luka Doncic top scorer in NBA Finals? | Event: top-scorer-nba-finals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | ohio-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Ohio Presidential Election? | 64,000,162 | 64,000,162 |
91aa02ce2ae9674fd9ac4fe3b369adf6cfefc049 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x6a425b7b03692e2409f1c9471a9de354c1a9d5989f56c5dae0ef66b15f589de9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Croatia win? | Event: euro-2024-croatia-vs-albania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | yes | 1 | minnesota-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Minnesota US Senate Election? | 64,000,162 | 64,000,162 |
1955173ea4726d1959cd5aa2df02280fd06e22a8 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x7606802127355512c8f8ff9c70ef27a2717a8554374d84452de4c7d28147338d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Croatia win? | Event: euro-2024-croatia-vs-albania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-germany-vs-hungary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
4... | yes | 1 | georgia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | 64,000,162 | 64,000,162 |
bcedf8a0572a7b7af9a8b57437a97b0fafdebc2a | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x846be8b2fc96f1033d715aeedcbcb7459945abef9b87599a9e02c27ee1c66b7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Croatia win? | Event: euro-2024-croatia-vs-albania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-germany-vs-hungary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win Group A? | Event: euro-2024-group-a-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | colorado-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Colorado Presidential Election? | 64,000,162 | 64,000,162 |
ed29197e3d7c87e2ca7bb18ea63d3414909f0f5b | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xa923afcb8297e3ade170f2f8c088f3c277557fadef2c67054d72cc59f8504b2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-germany-vs-hungary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win Group A? | Event: euro-2024-group-a-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win Group F? | Event: euro-2024-group-f-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | 64,000,162 | 64,000,162 |
3fa960682c176e8f78868e117bbc8517d467adb7 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xbe4f88565882170b13a66967bdad614a62c63b025e150e347d10553c58575287 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win Group A? | Event: euro-2024-group-a-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win Group F? | Event: euro-2024-group-f-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Florida Panthers win the 2024 Stanley Cup? | Event: nhl-champion-2024 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election? | 64,000,162 | 64,000,162 |
2fa723539b302071780b71d363ca559420f35e06 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xc6485bb7ea46d7bb89beb9c91e7572ecfc72a6273789496f78bc5e989e4d1638 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win Group F? | Event: euro-2024-group-f-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Florida Panthers win the 2024 Stanley Cup? | Event: nhl-champion-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Group D? | Event: euro-2024-group-d-winner | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 64,000,162 | 64,000,162 |
7949faa872c8c3960d6a341c8ab0ec4938971345 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Florida Panthers win the 2024 Stanley Cup? | Event: nhl-champion-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win Group D? | Event: euro-2024-group-d-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win Group C? | Event: euro-2024-group-c-winner | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 64,000,162 | 64,000,162 |
e1ef82637b41082f2097cb1361666f04d8774dc0 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x357378be4b958929f618b03a935489b0e19ee4e21247f7a89c4ec036fe95d3ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win Group D? | Event: euro-2024-group-d-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England win Group C? | Event: euro-2024-group-c-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | wisconsin-presidential-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | 64,000,168 | 64,000,168 |
dfdf7db0ad49534fa3088f1c117f34ec4e1ee63d | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x8fcd514641fa74b8f823b3aa157f57f0b912abd44c791517d15dc992965c4697 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win Group C? | Event: euro-2024-group-c-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cristiano Ronaldo be Euro 2024 top scorer? | Event: euro-2024-top-scorer | Choi... | yes | 1 | rhode-island-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Rhode Island Presidential Election? | 64,000,168 | 64,000,168 |
86c95adcab7ea6c45caa4ae79ace3990424f1273 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x972520d8ed44dcd71fff95b44e2593750d0e44323a5ccd2ce4bbbc540427bce9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cristiano Ronaldo be Euro 2024 top scorer? | Event: euro-2024-top-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice... | no | 1 | michigan-presidential-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Michigan Presidential Election? | 64,000,168 | 64,000,168 |
794ec0b29e8fb01b4107045efcad44512605b2c4 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xa93ffdf20f163f8968e73d9bafd9e95ee9759d74eaf073a7868693a17dfec9fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cristiano Ronaldo be Euro 2024 top scorer? | Event: euro-2024-top-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kylian Mbappe be Euro 2024 top scorer? | Event: euro-2024-top-s... | yes | 1 | massachusetts-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Massachusetts Presidential Election? | 64,000,168 | 64,000,168 |
54c5ee5c507414c8c44dab5462c94b0b593bf70f | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xc4efefe6e5ce0d8d4a20efd7fe9f8c90df447341f21fd66f55566d128768cc31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kylian Mbappe be Euro 2024 top scorer? | Event: euro-2024-top-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no |... | yes | 1 | idaho-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Idaho Presidential Election? | 64,000,168 | 64,000,168 |
aff3a4408012f56107db24bbd1ba6fc4bcbfe52b | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xfdbfcaa8f6ace709a0a5078eb5932d8600edcba6f91fc878eb4d3923980ed2f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kylian Mbappe be Euro 2024 top scorer? | Event: euro-2024-top-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Uruguay wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: no... | yes | 1 | maryland-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Maryland Presidential Election? | 64,000,168 | 64,000,168 |
91dfd40e5e00e33e4ba2f10c2d3edc1e84eb1d72 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x14a087f7b1b23b9a3c32799255edf18832d548302d6657efdba816a458a18d4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Uruguay wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Netherlands win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214 | 64,444,625 | 64,444,625 |
6bd1714e851c89ff0b1296eed31d73c39b7a39d6 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x475e0fd32b211c0cfe6755638efceba2373d01a7224c7750f77f978db104f639 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Uruguay wins Copa America 2024? | Event: copa-america-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Netherlands win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.990449645790872
3. Question: USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: ... | no | 0.985918 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 | 64,444,625 | 64,444,625 |
d612fa3e76ce345f0c1a7ef9808ce8758b3f315f | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x4d848bab2da79b9ff7f2b2b0d9ddb048bb1fb47e9f782887f16e91d27de41279 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win the 2024 Euros? | Event: euro-2024-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.990449645790872
2. Question: USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: USA wins ... | yes | 1 | arizona-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? | 64,444,625 | 64,444,625 |
2b708c351306bdfe40df8138b709936acad5f499 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xb0a06b05d49947a302d0c3648add3b6d6660380de6bdb6b79f0007f18daf3adb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ | 64,444,625 | 64,444,625 |
f2f25ab168e8a8c32c55eb4d84f87b639e740c2a | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xcec7958225b06aa2464a72d934ddcc9b66bb6f35ad065010496d8db92de412a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Event: paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-medals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Tennessee Presidential Election? | Event: tennessee-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | alaska-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Alaska Presidential Election? | 64,444,625 | 64,444,625 |
30b32cfd24bf691434e16205032a88a9f487dd84 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xdd2f4921a562fc4d18c0bde327d2a9315352a3ba4137656112b9b1770fd1f2a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Tennessee Presidential Election? | Event: tennessee-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election? | Event: new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | nevada-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? | 64,444,625 | 64,444,625 |
a697ee701b018c2de058378aca61822447629811 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xf4640cd41c414f694cd33e049e0c58092eea15bb7e463af0124695e46442742d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election? | Event: new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Louisiana Presidential Election? | Event: louisiana-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | balance-of-power-2024-election | 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D House | 64,444,625 | 64,444,625 |
6128e72ac780fbce45bac1bf4091b8fcf3a19c50 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xfcb031253ecf0d6b9f75e3630dee3033ab6c8ee9cce0a3e47285b0d15d717b32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Louisiana Presidential Election? | Event: louisiana-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win South Dakota Presidential Election? | Event: south-dakota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104 | 64,444,625 | 64,444,625 |
d7547670bf450ff88ff53fe09e0d1bca3eccde75 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x265366ede72d73e137b2b9095a6cdc9be6149290caa295738a95e3d881ad0865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win South Dakota Presidential Election? | Event: south-dakota-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Washington Presidential Election? | Event: washington-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | 64,444,633 | 64,444,633 |
2046c3bfb1eb627db1135523e100d9ae9598b15c | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x2d75f221ec38a3c8a5c43507bc44e68073a69cc26e249afa37bf97d7dd207512 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Washington Presidential Election? | Event: washington-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Republ... | no | 1 | texas-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election? | 64,444,633 | 64,444,633 |
773fcea23995daac3923eb105cd712fa357eabd7 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x8565c04b7cb5c2837d6c3347466a430cbe678a7d6428a48e5750749a26fb815d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election? | Event: north-carolina-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | arizona-presidential-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Arizona Presidential Election? | 64,444,633 | 64,444,633 |
71119c7c92de28b74c5ed9a019caee21dbf690a6 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x98bafdb1a843ad1ee3f10222f43c8b675940922b119c0e0364a219281306098f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election? | Event: north-carolina-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Iowa Presidential Election? | Event: iowa-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | wisconsin-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Wisconsin US Senate Election? | 64,444,633 | 64,444,633 |
d16af41022a91d5671a9680f537601b3c62e9e93 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xd007d71fd17b0913b9d7ff198f617caa96a9e4aab1bed7d6f9abd76bb17dd507 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Iowa Presidential Election? | Event: iowa-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Cleveland Guardia... | no | 1 | electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214 | 64,444,633 | 64,444,633 |
cda6b6f7dd935be6d17364ffa1ee25171c0e1ce3 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x170e269fe2091f2092c5c1ddafca0519081a0bafcb0941ae13fbc1addb08d782 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Cleveland Guardians win the World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Philadelphia Phillies w... | yes | 1 | of-republican-senate-seats-after-election | Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election? | 64,689,993 | 64,689,993 |
e9c965db20e3da4f7228b37a27f5404770653e1c | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x421c3221b9529524a3c8b1640869a24200633a8f2cbb0785783661ba0b0fde53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Cleveland Guardians win the World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Republican win Ohio ... | yes | 1 | of-republican-senate-seats-after-election | Will Republicans have 51 seats in Senate after election? | 64,689,993 | 64,689,993 |
de83128e56100cf8288b7d5fc6b374f94c3bfad0 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x83ef4a16f2efdd4b269d1eeeaa2c5b53d62c1691875cefe24ab2409ee48de0df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Ohio Presidential Election? | Event: ohio-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Democrat win M... | yes | 1 | of-republican-senate-seats-after-election | Will Republicans have 52 seats in Senate after election? | 64,689,993 | 64,689,993 |
5a14de9667e7cf458f39cec7f35cb3df4c11b003 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x96261daed8514e7626debfe92b1c7b33d61f065580a2c991b6d6d3fb366b7372 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Ohio Presidential Election? | Event: ohio-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota US Senate Election? | Event: minnesota-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Republic... | yes | 1 | of-republican-senate-seats-after-election | Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election? | 64,689,993 | 64,689,993 |
b566d6f20012800074a3d453e1d1e2af8c32700f | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xac2e6d8f4b3022aff8050bae1924250702cf424b970986b2ed850736d8148bf0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota US Senate Election? | Event: minnesota-us-senate-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a De... | yes | 1 | of-republican-senate-seats-after-election | Will Republicans have 50 seats in Senate after election? | 64,689,993 | 64,689,993 |
de1529c37acf985e0ba87e45410caff53543214b | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x60eb0290c9d1c641cd473a886118bd6c0dff842944267d44098b4c421ec4724c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Colorado Presidential Election? | Event: colorado-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | nfc-east-winner | Will the Dallas Cowboys win the NFC East? | 66,235,815 | 66,235,815 |
48769bb5019a625ab30d6e7afff7929ea2cca200 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x7abcd5c6cd3ffeedf29a74ca504a248a861a7aa9df1bf57718258775615c9e52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Colorado Presidential Election? | Event: colorado-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | nfc-west-winner | Will the San Francisco 49ers win the NFC West? | 66,235,815 | 66,235,815 |
916d0459d5af1ee1e4ff8b455c838ee8f689d516 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xa09ec7f57994ed3dd936ef68f9e2f6b759348192cd1012757a182f4c5e9f1b50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Event: pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | nfc-north-winner-1 | Will the Bears win the NFC North? | 66,235,815 | 66,235,815 |
cb60d0fd9c733b06a113b899e0f067254b81901e | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x2837cdd42e4a3d4445cb80e124f6a15a43cf4822a53877afd96d54ef0c1d76db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election? | Event: new-mexico-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | epl-cry-che-2025-01-04 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-01-04? | 66,309,837 | 66,309,837 |
eb6e23f060e052a9e688401d65377d6719889125 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x46d2f51c680c3ecb92d7f8c8f04f488f88a6abebef179a72a382a37930df4b27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | epl-tot-new-2025-01-04 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-04? | 66,309,837 | 66,309,837 |
235186017b6f0456a101f890604e22a2c23a87ea | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x1a386ae60cbe64bf97271e354c6573f2d57180e255cb429d4ff3f4f53ebd56d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a candidate from another party win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | Event: wisconsin-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | afc-north-winner | Will the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North? | 66,384,187 | 66,384,187 |
ca481fd5466e7230c00940730eb23ba14770c4ad | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x5817e148183be3af45455699ed92fbf2ba4846525f94e6710ac454bc9dc9d002 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a candidate from another party win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | Event: wisconsin-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Rhode Island Presidential Election? | Event: rhode-island-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confi... | no | 1 | epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | 66,384,187 | 66,384,187 |
9b1e305d6253f53e34c236bdf49f419cd6b71ba4 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x66b3b3bbf5758d3cc69ebfc45137c5d17e612046d972d0b5d512c02bb1823865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Rhode Island Presidential Election? | Event: rhode-island-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a candidate from another party win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 1 | epl-wol-not-2025-01-06 | Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? | 66,422,265 | 66,422,265 |
d6da8514b4671016dbe2b6f5af3dc79abcd89a86 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x446e2d8e2ffbe7db85cd2239892df5447e73325b3552d07d5d6901b2eff95a59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a candidate from another party win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Massachusetts Presidential Election? | Event: massachusetts-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confi... | no | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,667,190 | 66,667,190 |
9e7a02702be46ab44ae2cc5df08a6398aff74e6c | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xde00758fcf1165cfce32dc4f85f021e71da12e40c4b9140117c9beddd090776d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Massachusetts Presidential Election? | Event: massachusetts-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Idaho Presidential Election? | Event: idaho-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,667,190 | 66,667,190 |
a092825b0f5370959cc4ea2195f6c2998977c129 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xeb12fb23c56c8d690c51f6b2501c62fa0dcf25f8af04c0f92c68f94167a1f43b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Idaho Presidential Election? | Event: idaho-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Democrat win Maryland Presidential Election? | Event: maryland-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 2024 pres... | no | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,667,190 | 66,667,190 |
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