sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
bf27693c5704d7307e9d1d9eb8401b318fad1779 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x0f812245214ee9e3b8e7c5057df1474a1f427e633e895b8f698da7e1d56be643 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Democrat win Maryland Presidential Election? | Event: maryland-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,667,195 | 66,667,195 |
74c5f415683394f2594687d9d8475e317b7a945c | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xd2850d5a4e221848fb7fe1b0d09259a516653bf5f59de50ad76520e9a70d56da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 155-214 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential... | no | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,667,195 | 66,667,195 |
b7aa44840a1f7a5573a42e8ce5e090b0b6195cbe | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x242f911feafee2b6a4bd0e25ba9fa60dcab8ccbeca7ff15eb6090df43f5eb241 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9859182016689161
2. Question: Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? | Event: arizona-presidential-election-winner | Choice... | no | 1 | australian-open-winner-w | Will Karolina Muchova win the Australian Open? | 66,752,322 | 66,752,322 |
699f1b07b896604f2c5f4c2319b8fdbf7f83e4b4 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0xa20bb3917e90f70e503d00387741ae8e65470de61e39ad46c09df3eafd599d4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? | Event: arizona-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,752,322 | 66,752,322 |
b54fb6d178ac5ad5023060f3dab8a8aef431f1c5 | 0x1151ab60c626215851b18877f4df021754c5f522 | 0x08e4a1ee28030cb111dc8b5643c843e8a9dee93b62531880759ae01c9500f3f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ | Event: electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Alaska Presidential Election? | Event: alaska-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | australian-open-winner-w | Will Naomi Osaka win the Australian Open? | 66,990,874 | 66,990,874 |
6f9186de40ebd7c49a7eb6b639821af2cf5f0865 | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0xccc26c1ed0afddf3a1c9b9bee5bea00f1ab71cd9ec910d571c5588275a4eccf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025?
Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | 78,363,384 | 78,363,384 |
abd1abc0d562c897a32bdfd0a9afb319673a17b4 | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0xd0307ba1b02f5ac0e3f9c09a47471542520afea49079bb497dd896734c3313ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08?
Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the t... | yes | 1 | jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | 78,751,363 | 78,751,363 |
50002f1a939754988ff4fe718fd32dc7e8d8fc8a | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0x687050e41d63c309aed51bb3df460864d883ddf06bf28b4cf39f92ee942ad873 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will... | no | 1 | elc-bbr-der-2025-11-08 | Will Blackburn Rovers FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw? | 78,762,534 | 78,762,534 |
3d7c152ceb4110976f5875d3aa29ac4b09e28f12 | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0x26d926b4a7d09c900240d3523227f82b5f8d5fc22a31c97e4e1a144e22761403 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Blackburn Ro... | yes | 1 | aus-bri-new-2025-11-09 | Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,792,610 | 78,792,610 |
b14eea750983107d2652c6b5733814439738e344 | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0x62f569e4f4f32b9876053c367a9b6eeac86e187c305ae8547c636f052d33b2ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Blackburn Ro... | no | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-745 | Will “Nobody Wants This” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | 78,797,972 | 78,797,972 |
d1327b12175a888565930a30cf34ea6e51bfd7d7 | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0xd0383e9e3d799780334f75883b4df0b1d789310dbb731e71e350df1eb273d854 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Blackburn Ro... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-745 | Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025) | 78,797,972 | 78,797,972 |
182385a2e266b33d69321bac269eea19cb8e9f46 | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0x6a1dc41df5e4a2703219c06378faaf8c4870d5e218164fd5656cc7c1a4542417 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Blackburn Ro... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 | 78,815,166 | 78,815,166 |
cb63ccb886cbceb04ddcf53369b1b0aeedeff99f | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0x9c5c9b470ce597b7d19d7823e94ebf2380c293d30ff5fda45009cae12cab092c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Blackburn Ro... | yes | 1 | rus-kss-zen-2025-11-09 | Will PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara vs. FK Zenit end in a draw? | 78,815,166 | 78,815,166 |
fc9e87506a212d5a4c0e8b2b91aa66977d2909b3 | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0xaa2a0acdfa302867a75ed4298280e6724cf89eb2abbe4f4ee6bd745bf3cce36e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Blackburn Ro... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 | 78,815,166 | 78,815,166 |
52c367d8778ebccfda2a57e92f565b26560b0710 | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0x502a01f1d76b6384c9f774734409bc2b2e83d1d1ee608b02f1bc07958fabbfc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Blackburn Ro... | yes | 1 | bra-mir-pal-2025-11-09 | Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,832,617 | 78,832,617 |
4ec91ab96d518410af1da0d301fdeb06002aadd1 | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0x7bf1c8b48256278e5db45ee328217ca199a869b1ccfa63c696092bc2e73e5a2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Blackburn Ro... | yes | 1 | predator-badlands-opening-weekend-box-office-higher-brackets | Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 33m? | 78,875,345 | 78,875,345 |
9cc56a44c3c0a225ac5f4e17e4a31b33b1d5c2e1 | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0x6b6c2a25b03112d68fe23658cda9370f3f892230573dbf2008b8a481aa4e7688 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Blackburn Ro... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-696 | Will “Frankenstein” be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 11 2025) | 78,901,160 | 78,901,160 |
b5a04ff2d7e69ad76a7510abc3f448593c00762a | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0x62fa6529c0ad0314457c84f73cd0bd075d442515bd4817e8acab18e42d4552cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Blackburn Ro... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-218 | Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025) | 78,901,171 | 78,901,171 |
aef41702cfaf171e58b3d1b97be675bbe268ebef | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0x3928160f9521cdeccf431ade55468a1dc3cb6094e99e13cf391b00abec68e280 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Blackburn Ro... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,700 on November 13? | 78,980,173 | 78,980,173 |
b30726efdfe7855e406251902dc1fd0b5e798ad8 | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0x95cb3f45cebc81b213e336dcc212eb6b0bdc574b5329870c2987965f950d712a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Blackburn Ro... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-13 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 13? | 78,985,428 | 78,985,428 |
a5c320948c49e0ea17e7720b452f06475e46c65b | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0x7f64c0af726f30a1b62a48d9cc5fd31c1165a86cc363968c8db21b9c07eb41db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Blackburn Ro... | yes | 1 | fif-jpn-gha-2025-11-14 | Will Japan win on 2025-11-14? | 79,014,550 | 79,014,550 |
82886e0e1bf98a431ad0e6c508a7602ab14973d9 | 0x1172aae850656083b5541ccab9333a159cf8ac19 | 0x32046c049bbd4ede7d4642991aea5dca1fbdfcb8edb919f236fe616548d97cee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi not shake hands on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Blackburn Ro... | yes | 1 | fif-kor1-bol-2025-11-14 | Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-14? | 79,015,949 | 79,015,949 |
e9bec4ff84f8d6074a70d89cf3fc4bf92e9d90b1 | 0x118114d9d0ffa150ed8cd8c7f53fd280c048509a | 0x7f48d9194a4f94d299e850a07e59f4a6436b828446e2c92f58ea6a01264c460e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04?
Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | 76,070,842 | 76,070,842 |
da3cca3016572b7aeb553e6dca49f116352b738a | 0x118114d9d0ffa150ed8cd8c7f53fd280c048509a | 0x1bf821634d7f4dfb1b54215037d92035384c9f2fa3c3cd123ca83594d37f15a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06?
Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "c... | yes | 1 | fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | 76,155,845 | 76,155,845 |
dc73537697df79b79ee499515289d655cec9d006 | 0x118114d9d0ffa150ed8cd8c7f53fd280c048509a | 0x48f66427f9bf3cb63309ae5d6f8484b087d9b8683af4b6c7161f823e86cbd210 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will United Arab Emirates win on 2025-09-08?
Event: fif-... | yes | 1 | fif-uae-bah1-2025-09-08 | Will United Arab Emirates win on 2025-09-08? | 76,227,979 | 76,227,979 |
40af42ac2757387a7774e6948db2c8636fb573a2 | 0x118114d9d0ffa150ed8cd8c7f53fd280c048509a | 0x7450d05618345e0103fade4dad30a7a2d88f85836db56b521230dfa5ad81eac7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will United Arab Emirates win on 2025-09-08? | Event: fif-uae-bah1-20... | yes | 1 | f1-italian-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | 76,228,640 | 76,228,640 |
b3f1b9f3f491b79b07042a8d9eb28325b2959e87 | 0x118114d9d0ffa150ed8cd8c7f53fd280c048509a | 0xa0b109a1b63cd4477b10aacf341e383784cfe4ba946b65ee76c75fa4faaa910b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will United Arab Emirates win on 2025-09-08? | Event: fif-uae-bah1-20... | yes | 1 | fif-mex-jpn-2025-09-06 | Will Japan win on 2025-09-06? | 76,228,640 | 76,228,640 |
5b83fcee9cbf90a8d5b6727b9372032cd3726a52 | 0x118114d9d0ffa150ed8cd8c7f53fd280c048509a | 0x411e4d4738f45f0ce40dd64e802e0c8ec4028124bd8584f5524120e28465f3db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will United Arab Emirates win on 2025-09-08? | Event: fif-uae-bah1-20... | yes | 1 | bun-b04-ein-2025-09-12 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-12? | 76,389,078 | 76,389,078 |
53ffb0ae1acd372094fcd588db22b78f46243f52 | 0x118114d9d0ffa150ed8cd8c7f53fd280c048509a | 0x3587998f1689b1121c9497735ee5cfdb6d98c8c5b0179a78805438a5c69d63e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will United Arab Emirates win on 2025-09-08? | Event: fif-uae-bah1-20... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-tot-2025-09-13 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-13? | 76,427,396 | 76,427,396 |
048a5d047f5bca59296a0c03f06844a93a01574a | 0x118114d9d0ffa150ed8cd8c7f53fd280c048509a | 0xafff3c833567330e7d948f236447728153805f6b4f0879285c3569b6459f6bf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will United Arab Emirates win on 2025-09-08? | Event: fif-uae-bah1-20... | yes | 1 | epl-new-wol-2025-09-13 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-13? | 76,427,396 | 76,427,396 |
f24d16776f02637a9185d18c06d371ec06690f37 | 0x118114d9d0ffa150ed8cd8c7f53fd280c048509a | 0xef9f6953b9be7ebe624fea24d0ebf2e4a0d33ee16697ff275873ee2078ea87f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will United Arab Emirates win on 2025-09-08? | Event: fif-uae-bah1-20... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-lee-2025-09-13 | Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? | 76,427,396 | 76,427,396 |
1a655d0b30f1f7f3e0b7e19429713c80a4983c1e | 0x118114d9d0ffa150ed8cd8c7f53fd280c048509a | 0x0656c73b782f5a69acd827353913ef341bc6db54e514dbb87d11d4ee51da39b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will United Arab Emirates win on 2025-09-08? | Event: fif-uae-bah1-20... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-liv-2025-09-14 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14? | 76,464,426 | 76,464,426 |
a0fa8929318925e55268c67ba2845cea6ea7ab5e | 0x118114d9d0ffa150ed8cd8c7f53fd280c048509a | 0x774c912a1bc4ac49a2416bcd09ffd45e89021f55f82277af6fc6faf765c6616a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will United Arab Emirates win on 2025-09-08? | Event: fif-uae-bah1-20... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? | 76,464,426 | 76,464,426 |
e32b7e430094383db81e109caeb185d56429bfaf | 0x118114d9d0ffa150ed8cd8c7f53fd280c048509a | 0x89a7de362065efcd548bcfed63379f93ca43737d7fb88fcebcef01415b6df326 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will United Arab Emirates win on 2025-09-08? | Event: fif-uae-bah1-20... | yes | 1 | lal-esp-mal-2025-09-15 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-15? | 76,504,103 | 76,504,103 |
9a6760f9bb8c9d8539a2359ab96bb7d4164b6b9a | 0x118114d9d0ffa150ed8cd8c7f53fd280c048509a | 0xd62a43379a790c695d40bb724c669a87c237aaf7799907d00e14fe7badb573cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will United Arab Emirates win on 2025-09-08? | Event: fif-uae-bah1-20... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-ata-2025-09-17 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-09-17? | 76,586,761 | 76,586,761 |
30a40baec9dd673891537c10c182074ffa69d384 | 0x118114d9d0ffa150ed8cd8c7f53fd280c048509a | 0x28a2c341bde029fb59f598c802bbd04763f634aa5ec642a7b016dfaee0000582 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will United Arab Emirates win on 2025-09-08? | Event: fif-uae-bah1-20... | yes | 1 | ucl-mac-nap-2025-09-18 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-18? | 76,626,958 | 76,626,958 |
89ee0353a0803d7f7558cc59685e77bc4573364c | 0x118114d9d0ffa150ed8cd8c7f53fd280c048509a | 0x08144b2cb16d11a7654febda8ba82a1353f44852a4fe07d27616f783ca92a4ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will United Arab Emirates win on 2025-09-08? | Event: fif-uae-bah1-20... | yes | 1 | lal-bet-rso-2025-09-19 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-19? | 76,667,548 | 76,667,548 |
f14992bb4b163b3f3c7d51af56d950b054fde2f5 | 0x118114d9d0ffa150ed8cd8c7f53fd280c048509a | 0xa95bda98964f533dafdeee3ad0788cffaf3b1f12ce07bfa37265c940e30696ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wales win on 2025-09-04? | Event: uef-kaz-wal-2025-09-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06? | Event: fif-usa-kor1-2025-09-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will United Arab Emirates win on 2025-09-08? | Event: fif-uae-bah1-20... | yes | 1 | fl1-lyo-ang-2025-09-19 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-09-19? | 76,667,548 | 76,667,548 |
b2ba0c5bfa335d96bc49567e5d07e5e705281022 | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0x20d4b4186dd1ef583b767f162ea48e2a32a009399212255eb406739c22dfa6a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04?
Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | 78,612,171 | 78,612,171 |
b4c29f320b93a8b7a2fcebd25ba567f1a3050826 | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0x5ed74c88a7aeb604f2e330285f8b50deae87ea87f33acdf514230c4962974c0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05?
Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict J... | yes | 1 | bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | 78,655,792 | 78,655,792 |
dc5081b9f89ef4001bb883e5480a7afeb91569d3 | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0xe8ea657cb5b515880ecc39509b250db8374cf22dc08b65b516c6d48a77dc128d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07?
... | no | 1 | fl1-pfc-ren-2025-11-07 | Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | 78,729,383 | 78,729,383 |
677b6dbd806612be13acee6ef3f7f1ccbdfb889d | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0x86c515e6d1bb9e852347c8dc9350365ecf4da047667a794cc00173dd7d9473e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | no | 1 | lal-elc-rso-2025-11-07 | Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | 78,729,743 | 78,729,743 |
e602ed2492eeba46cb51e3d393ab1d2f5010df2b | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0x4164cca7c5da1cfc6d9684651f308188ddbbbd8fe1e54402f20c9df732386cd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | no | 1 | epl-tot-mun-2025-11-08 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08? | 78,760,948 | 78,760,948 |
6ea8eb335998637b3a364c1c7842e60e7dce354d | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0x91fc51124bebc25212e0b11acea0387be7764476f3f6d957d114b4cbeb82e3da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | no | 1 | bun-uni-bay-2025-11-08 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? | 78,763,305 | 78,763,305 |
3d775212c8cbbb3f9f8e7d7e74c5030cd3b62f53 | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0x55d447adadd021f24f9fde78bdeaa530b5fa07aae013c375653ccafa04763a2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | yes | 1 | bra-rec-cam-2025-11-08 | Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-11-08? | 78,772,120 | 78,772,120 |
9c51a5ad71649257fedb997546a385ec202af329 | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0xca8509c857f72e399c9c21c4fcfeecbecfd9f36fc9276830ab45391862d893da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | no | 1 | bra-rec-cam-2025-11-08 | Will SC Recife win on 2025-11-08? | 78,772,120 | 78,772,120 |
5c33e5678dd92d4d3b4600154cbf6f9158c62ac8 | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0xb5bfbe70100b8105729965a07d7ecd578a8552550164ab2ef96e4ce7911eb8ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-8 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on November 8? | 78,789,389 | 78,789,389 |
eecb16821570ade82c66f44a8d2057d2715310b9 | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0xac4fdbe4b3043f9f1219ad055c01b3c2c3cd896896c428d8b905034f88f4464d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | no | 1 | ere-utr-aja-2025-11-09 | Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-09? | 78,801,873 | 78,801,873 |
0f85738bb0e1f7b3f778e40ad2ebecd8909b4195 | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0xe73edadf8c145ebf8414e9a92b55040345a77aade693bf8c800201c5fa88bc3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-liv-2025-11-09 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? | 78,809,919 | 78,809,919 |
ba2a4ed763dd66692ccde370ac81eb6190bfe8f2 | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0x3bf50cbd8d2337812fb370022f1dcbd08a68fe0f47796659f214d0cf86c75081 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | yes | 1 | bra-rec-fla-2025-11-15 | Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-15? | 79,083,551 | 79,083,551 |
295d3774411ca8751c016f40fd6e7bcbb17b985d | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0x4e3ec6b7a46a89448f210d5796727090756adbabdd27fc72b34982637a12e2d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | yes | 1 | uef-aze-fra-2025-11-16 | Will France win on 2025-11-16? | 79,113,713 | 79,113,713 |
337bb0a61893adb18b0e8068f4fbb7070d862105 | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0xaa35bfbb79fdee6ec8c659ba3fffefa8fc23e37683ba410f118f56ac6c2a5ba1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | yes | 1 | uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Will England win on 2025-11-16? | 79,113,713 | 79,113,713 |
1e57c29fa934ae4298d3d3b9f0875701fbb94ab1 | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0x8e02e71440f009e122cec76592300a1e41f44c1fa5f63a10ac2de919bebb8222 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | yes | 1 | uef-ger-svk-2025-11-17 | Will Germany win on 2025-11-17? | 79,170,084 | 79,170,084 |
48b23d847ef19ed8d6a77accd83b18c5a0445ea3 | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0x8c5e32128a97bde70fd921ac86fef05b19e4a383683ce25b89cb258368d1ca24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | yes | 1 | fif-jpn-bol-2025-11-18 | Will Japan win on 2025-11-18? | 79,187,199 | 79,187,199 |
8e84ec61f7d057b62f6c65e82e881bff1ec5c7f6 | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0x304d0f86c4a1e68bf0ce78e71b96a848fe809d5d23bd5075a5eaf655f5a06cd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | no | 1 | fif-kor1-gha-2025-11-18 | Will Ghana win on 2025-11-18? | 79,188,915 | 79,188,915 |
d54910b8b2bc7129616c60dd95575204e3e1eb7c | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0x4e1a450a5f51307180d2bec2ef3e6bb38623c127e613a160489b5430c1bc7fa0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | no | 1 | bra-bot-rec-2025-11-18 | Will SC Recife win on 2025-11-18? | 79,212,871 | 79,212,871 |
97e6865d0aca55c4344247b42ccdf5fa326b2367 | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0xa68991332b23fb03598bb6e86942bd41c9e830f30f17ec19e8d53e573540251a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | yes | 1 | uef-swe-slv-2025-11-18 | Will Sweden vs. Slovenia end in a draw? | 79,212,871 | 79,212,871 |
8cf8eaf80936f2950c6505a48d2f083234ce29d1 | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0x8d5190b55ca3afc7233bfe8eb1cefe0e0101f9c71def551c5f495eae8421cb9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | yes | 1 | bra-bah-fec-2025-11-20 | Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-20? | 79,302,808 | 79,302,808 |
1fce9d9ad6b2636620a49aba359ab470fa4324e7 | 0x11827a9f63cef8c67747a922182e9c72a0f4b6bb | 0x419a55bd0f19cde65f8b1a0756d94867af8dd14b88dae2567c9a918f37ac207e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-05? | Event: bra-bra-cor1-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | Event: fl1-... | yes | 1 | sea-nap-ata-2025-11-22 | Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-22? | 79,378,842 | 79,378,842 |
c7713042474dcc497a4a87cf779ae13714ae04f4 | 0x11899a5a28e9bb5a495d48abb5ad36e6c225a9e0 | 0x3faf3dbf90050968deafdc980118910ebe8d2410a573bc265ba81fc4658c793b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Event: democratic-nominee-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 59,780,270 | 59,780,270 |
8e573bd64cb303713ca531a2ca0e41f564b6c025 | 0x11899a5a28e9bb5a495d48abb5ad36e6c225a9e0 | 0xe47fa246d7910a7a6bb1f5bb32d0eb26b0637be6d921d63f363557b8ca0c5add | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate?
Event: trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate
Predict the user's choice and confidence ... | yes | 0.000026 | trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | 59,815,127 | 59,855,728 |
366d26d282a318df4a0dbf9ad217d2856deab91e | 0x11899a5a28e9bb5a495d48abb5ad36e6c225a9e0 | 0x8b33321990824e5e28b67420c823f48ff397e5e79e5faa06b6ad83a5f5a33275 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | Event: trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.621820109796644e-05
Ta... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Will Elon tweet 110-119 times? | 59,844,147 | 59,844,147 |
b1f742d33d9af9ea2c2fbb441be37f04c118b0a5 | 0x11899a5a28e9bb5a495d48abb5ad36e6c225a9e0 | 0xc6e1bb63973d651a0b27c436d140278af4b8524c775c983ba78729af80b21f87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | Event: trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.621820109796644e-05
3. ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-19-26 | Will Elon tweet 100-109 times? | 59,844,147 | 59,844,147 |
16b17d4e336cafd05e0f6e8e4ce76e74d5c3f6a9 | 0x11899a5a28e9bb5a495d48abb5ad36e6c225a9e0 | 0xb50e4eb3b151f97e8656e814953c818b12347e71a3924a62e19ef9d7ff4bb339 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | Event: trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.621820109796644e-05
3. ... | no | 0.37931 | what-will-trump-say-during-his-bitcoin-conference-speech | Will Trump say "Bitcoin" 5+ times during his Bitcoin Conference speech? | 59,855,728 | 59,855,728 |
434df926ab06619bd06831951e5ceced0be21cac | 0x11899a5a28e9bb5a495d48abb5ad36e6c225a9e0 | 0x98f9bbac0c03b494f96ccf3d59d3ee0eee243a831faf41b1288b622323e64789 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | Event: trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.621820109796644e-05
3. ... | no | 1 | 100m-butterfly-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Gretchen Walsh (USA) win Gold in Women's 100m Butterfly? | 59,926,515 | 59,926,515 |
de8845524bc11064f21366e4d9e2d55b44a013ff | 0x11899a5a28e9bb5a495d48abb5ad36e6c225a9e0 | 0xb4e889cdee05ad1ac2dc3e64b7f861fe6040436b455ba0f8f776b52e62635634 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | Event: trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.621820109796644e-05
3. ... | no | 1 | 400m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 400m Individual Medley? | 59,926,628 | 59,926,628 |
3eb9ce215ee5b75086d2001d3a81b99c9be644bd | 0x11899a5a28e9bb5a495d48abb5ad36e6c225a9e0 | 0x0bde492c68095af49be01d3c9c2c47383a8cf002baa9b9e177338232414a1a03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | Event: trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.621820109796644e-05
3. ... | yes | 1 | tennis-winner-m | Will Alex De Minaur (AUS) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | 59,959,041 | 59,959,041 |
072a69b2331220eafa0b2e082116165632a8cfa7 | 0x11899a5a28e9bb5a495d48abb5ad36e6c225a9e0 | 0x0f9cc1d1366ed53d8ea27545c8e8da1b8f217cd935d31b9e227e6aaaf25d3a81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | Event: trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.621820109796644e-05
3. ... | yes | 1 | 200m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Matthew Richards (GBR) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle? | 59,965,153 | 59,965,153 |
6e873c61d5372205270f80ca2a9c6eee04aa09c8 | 0x11899a5a28e9bb5a495d48abb5ad36e6c225a9e0 | 0xc7631f1d3f538803ad257cfa4933cab7e61f60f74be0e31e8aba60ba82328860 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | Event: trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.621820109796644e-05
3. ... | yes | 1 | 200m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Danas Rapsys (LTU) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle? | 59,967,111 | 59,967,111 |
5dfd19de957903a01e71f7939a8f7b328f88b95d | 0x11899a5a28e9bb5a495d48abb5ad36e6c225a9e0 | 0xf1cd7cd4742ad4b97ad21d6834477b6c356d74e8a1803cbf0a0ad72983588900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | Event: trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.621820109796644e-05
3. ... | no | 1 | when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Will Kamala announce VP pick Tuesday? | 60,000,881 | 60,002,688 |
41223cb04645ddc859bfe3cbc92bc17a37a23b03 | 0x11899a5a28e9bb5a495d48abb5ad36e6c225a9e0 | 0x839cde1dc920674a91bc227b9783cad5704d19ce89f851186f2a25ea4c1b414b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | Event: trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.621820109796644e-05
3. ... | no | 0.376889 | when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Will Kamala announce VP pick Tuesday? | 60,000,970 | 60,044,830 |
95b672e290e5133913381b09b6fbe7a39d079d90 | 0x11899a5a28e9bb5a495d48abb5ad36e6c225a9e0 | 0x45e9ef39e4c80e9c3f0f6846038671705e2ed30fd0168f0ce83cdb025bf32727 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | Event: trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.621820109796644e-05
3. ... | no | 0 | will-kamala-announce-vp-pick-today | Will Kamala announce VP pick today? | 60,001,100 | 60,001,100 |
c8067534887ac2bc86d485b3d8d6ac5dd8fe2f6e | 0x11899a5a28e9bb5a495d48abb5ad36e6c225a9e0 | 0x84620040df50f04416b8ee80495908cb16bbf1c106a32beecd22f6e0565e5e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | Event: trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.621820109796644e-05
3. ... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-july-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2024 meeting? | 60,012,333 | 60,012,333 |
9d6ab0c2e6277873ab501d013b46f7850b26a95d | 0x11899a5a28e9bb5a495d48abb5ad36e6c225a9e0 | 0x6a98d5d6903279a133009d8dfaef73432a77758ff4a63c391921082820cbdef2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump and Harris agree to Sept 10 debate? | Event: trump-kamala-agree-to-to-september-10-debate | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.621820109796644e-05
3. ... | yes | 0.999941 | fed-interest-rates-july-2024 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2024 meeting? | 60,042,180 | 60,042,180 |
3f4af301f1143c5e3b9cec97b9ee08c2b66f3027 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x19ceaa8e4dc8e9146fd9a82dda67a11c3fbfde4425e699ee46362a3ced83ab87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?
Event: belarus-presidential-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.217014 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 67,251,087 | 67,251,087 |
357713e633563fe178a97622d8519aa5f5c120ef | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xb039c08d2a899e7d372d9d82b933e42143373e4742c1134badf9c9a69962960d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
Target market:
Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?
Event: belarus-presidential-election
Predict th... | yes | 1 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 67,251,130 | 67,251,130 |
b00675aa5adeb238de6089f0d003ea4240bfb5df | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x64123306a517e078fa636231a9cc9339a46bcfe3fadf62c92fdb031881c5d0d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | 67,326,461 | 67,326,461 |
d04c318c0e5f2739919b72cd9c12f3360f19057d | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x405534c03f82e56a397478db7b068dbb683fb46c976265f650ba6510200749da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0.000534 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Liverpool wins the Premier League? | 67,462,828 | 67,462,828 |
d384b302733b26e6a9e23ff5715de3e4694bf1a7 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xcc5a06c3b79f72f1abfd6bb4e360f627180fcb723a42f273ee625c4d6e65d241 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0 | trump-declassifies-jfk-files-in-first-week | Trump declassifies JFK files in first week? | 67,488,375 | 67,556,948 |
c5a1321df816f4d5ccb33ef3909b2e555db35aa0 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xd6c186dd4a5167684c27462d0bb541bd22ca4861298c00ade1991c6240364762 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0 | will-trump-create-a-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-his-first-100-days | Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | 67,499,662 | 73,441,324 |
0f81a020429e4e68b0accfbccccbd59a72515b48 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x66a86bed2460bb982e1a9a22d111b08bea41349423ef9e8669570e488cf96de0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0 | will-trump-impose-25-tariff-on-mexicocanada | Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? | 67,523,014 | 67,523,014 |
71c61308a208b016fb1a1ba7342155360f70a679 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x400d3f9e359ef6fa1e51a63ae8d45a1b3797b90cd2cbdb1c0aa7a3f75bd652a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0 | trump-administration | Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? | 67,523,097 | 67,523,097 |
31411c27c0ad8fffe0df6b8ec21662839c16c69f | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x1921202aa3f884b9c562a244f1e58417d93c9315e6768d27768eb3b2abc2c95b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0.994314 | germany-parliamentary-election | Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | 67,530,770 | 70,568,834 |
38748072915eb124348f91d6e19a07519fc64e2f | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xba3a2460fbc3809266aa49bebace03276e787dbe232a49a0e47c7b02eb209320 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 0.000227 | will-microstrategy-hold-500k-btc-before-march | Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March? | 67,596,415 | 67,596,415 |
d8aa77e173978948a9da089a68586d615ac6e07a | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xc18a76cbd702e37c482ef65ab236a6c8ad9126e8de0e3807ee8da8057e03987f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0 | will-trump-remove-blanket-tariff-on-mexico-before-march | Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before March? | 67,596,475 | 67,596,475 |
319b66b08f26719caee96cbc176853d0eb07088c | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xe85229be9b279bffc835c3b4300c34761688ed7bf63d239409f2bb63bc5b4386 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0.000082 | trump-declassifies-jfk-files-in-first-100-days | Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? | 67,612,023 | 67,612,023 |
893ca3a8a09a03ba5a5256fc43001faba08378bd | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xa5ac4cdcfff44ddfb0d332d33575f766414465786fb7d4350782db40d5e9da11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 0.000085 | trump-wins-ends-ukraine-war-in-90-days | Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | 67,612,050 | 67,636,830 |
21e5cc5ce03296ad39a1bc64897a5285f9053432 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xe226982316ce20de2e72dfd693a2caa0829ae20c612746534b24a4d700d366c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0 | who-will-recognize-syrian-government-by-march-31 | Will an EU nation recognize Syrian government by March 31? | 67,636,790 | 67,719,060 |
46d9e6d5aca6408dc883be19f8aabff4f2eeafd2 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x74b835cd8ec86eb9c44c6f1dc4185e5788c235868f2cb3f17b69ba67fe883d0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 0.501433 | nfl-mvp-1 | Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | 67,636,852 | 67,647,968 |
2618c85e71255e93c5456a4d768592757fc46d3d | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x2090c30d181142250d1f25b5da4808b16cddd7f2e2cfcf19bdfd508325498fb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0 | airdrops-in-q1-2025 | Linea airdrop in Q1 2025? | 67,636,873 | 67,636,873 |
ad3a2a413a4f947a016c2085619e06ac030764fb | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x1329a399b6534cb77323e496fd2dc9e247f2a8946df86a03284581d87869018f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | nfl-mvp-1 | Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | 67,647,961 | 67,647,961 |
7febce22abffec5efd88096c88655520fa3f7b4f | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x270d51ab499f6306b222d442811a566d054e194c4ddf9b1de0e3ade7246a7058 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | nfl-mvp-1 | Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? | 67,647,970 | 67,647,970 |
21ccbfc0d8d21ad194214303586dc6ddd8fe0f12 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xb1cc260d14196274e3bda3b976a451a56e2800167576a049c12cccdbec9e743a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | nfl-mvp-1 | Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | 67,647,970 | 67,647,970 |
384cd07f2f201a487ede205b745102dfd1ec220a | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x73f531e7088e7da29626e152d60566aa71a4a078b6ae6b7215577a963edc376c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0 | ecuador-presidential-election | Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? | 67,677,159 | 67,677,159 |
26d63839fb46e3fc451e33cba2e23058b20c5faa | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x719791f498518e9229c9704356ed51cb638080d87ac66e784659efdb2c99bb34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0 | will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-feb-4-10 | Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10? | 67,690,948 | 67,690,948 |
99c0088609234b2d78286dadabc458dde712dc5d | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x93ec7298069d02293cf8cf4261e0c6bcee2f83b4a4ff11ffb9abaa8c4261c681 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0 | will-kanye-launch-a-coin-in-february | Will Kanye launch a coin in February? | 67,690,990 | 67,690,990 |
fe4efafcde5acfab91913ca5817b845b5d73430e | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xde8ca3ccc8e3de8f8325258b4c99f704ae8084b07b00666097223f25351ab1f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? | 68,010,003 | 68,010,003 |
70fd35604b31fc0b7ea5184f9cb903f1c4855409 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x01450d5f158d9387a5ce30666e1d667a92b5ee6da9e63a889d54e537bc6bab0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 1 | ucl-mil-fey-2025-02-18 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-02-18? | 68,108,536 | 68,108,536 |
58213944c00ff17aa36393cbe9ec7a8f60cfb7d8 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x4ec894295788cede3fe400ffd246c9f6554715aec0afb592c93e95294600e922 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | ucl-ben-mon-2025-02-18 | Will Benfica vs. Monaco end in a draw? | 68,108,550 | 68,108,550 |
a7fbb84bf9bb580d57b470c2ec5da75482ccc3b7 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x41eec28d4c34eaa69d5f99c14107e73ec1e9fa92aa62f61f1de00206ae03a350 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | ucl-bay-cel-2025-02-18 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-02-18? | 68,108,554 | 68,108,554 |
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