sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
961be48831caf66215df527beb6669661175c356 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x182ecd7e8863e1c6e7f7f3deea27fd68bdd4bd117b5efcea013449a9b1bd9cff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | ucl-bay-cel-2025-02-18 | Will Celtic win on 2025-02-18? | 68,108,556 | 68,108,556 |
d8515967abfc59266bdb3758c9d2e48d198139c5 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xe4ef6372951010fb66044f59b0d62efa38ddc68c9de7a5533648e299c1ffcfb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | ucl-ata-bru-2025-02-18 | Will Club Brugge win on 2025-02-18? | 68,108,559 | 68,108,559 |
db345066f17ad0f84a0c1361e171cce41d29a93f | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x84d3ac0ee7d5cc5151b184f502516575f60d35343c3d3b7301ff3d09372b4534 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | ucl-mil-fey-2025-02-18 | Will AC Milan vs. Feyenoord end in a draw? | 68,108,565 | 68,108,565 |
296e04b2747de7d1f22d7b6512fb7cf7155bb9a2 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xea973f2509864d250e76d9419b668ccccaaa224c12158596afe225726013bd1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | ucl-mil-fey-2025-02-18 | Will Feyenoord win on 2025-02-18? | 68,108,567 | 68,108,567 |
2199145e2c4f911b4689a446447a7dd89cd5b0dc | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x37b0d415eb67ff5f4763e2b94a25d47a85c4f8d6058310d8180aaeab20bcc346 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2170138888888889
2. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | ucl-ata-bru-2025-02-18 | Will Atalanta vs. Club Brugge end in a draw? | 68,108,568 | 68,108,568 |
fb265f1939696aa7e1b6aef9933eed1b0e0378bc | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x3f56bae1879b7336e2e77fd2955557216cd305cff2481844e799050b364a3ef8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | germany-parliamentary-election | Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | 68,316,069 | 68,316,069 |
0b4af5e9016637b0c3c9042859ffcdd2f85bdfbe | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xf4c062740bed86e48b44177aae609c9c76e44cba5318aba240b94066939b672b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0005344171533059536
3. Question: Trump... | yes | 1 | germany-parliamentary-election | Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? | 68,316,090 | 68,316,090 |
d1070d2d236f0b74d668c93ede06a593e9d34da4 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xd51a5101d8bb14ad53ac2a0abe871475cf96d42774055ca2aadd0c4229198ef3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0005344171533059536
2. Question: Trump declassifies JFK files in first week? | Event: trump-declassifies-jfk-files-in-first-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump create B... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? | 68,523,641 | 68,523,641 |
640c9007abeb40c2b49401d2eca0305743c8d969 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x5dfb31b9b81911892708617f383c8bb2a81b8ed1406e29b3d00bbbe9a39f654e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump declassifies JFK files in first week? | Event: trump-declassifies-jfk-files-in-first-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | Event: will-trump-create-a-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-his-first-100-days | Choice: no | Confidenc... | yes | 0.730679 | ucl-bay-b04-2025-03-05 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-03-05? | 68,759,866 | 68,759,866 |
3ff332df543be78e4ee88d9fa5293d019d899428 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x0d282c849c5cdb0a4b68064fdfed69765a61e88d5fc3b04269fc5e01677add9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | Event: will-trump-create-a-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-his-first-100-days | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? | Event: will-trump-impose-25-tariff-on-mexicocanada |... | yes | 1 | ucl-ben-bar-2025-03-05 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05? | 68,759,970 | 68,759,970 |
ce31ff0a5255b1aba8c2aa89f42fb64b9ec26ac1 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x2cf69cd74ea8aa61d735ffec8437b60f1986c231840a907fc6f3f2a8b729b231 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? | Event: will-trump-impose-25-tariff-on-mexicocanada | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? | Event: trump-administration | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: ... | no | 0.236628 | oscars-best-supporting-actress | Will Zoe Saldaña win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,759,994 | 68,759,994 |
15a40147baf9b05574deec99d44140cb98e4cc6f | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xe26f242399d69141bb03c2d5872bf54fd731811ed6a3c3f5778f915ebeff529c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? | Event: trump-administration | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9943137879989755
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | next-leader-of-canadian-liberal-party | Will Ruby Dhalla be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | 70,568,516 | 70,568,516 |
aa1b1cfe66fc2e149bc13c80d22b1e2b6b84e7a2 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x5f355694a819f00737086a77dc017a1c1cfe99aa93ec6c7a98013536817dea09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9943137879989755
2. Question: Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March? | Event: will-microstrategy-hold-500k-btc-before-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00... | yes | 1 | cducsu-of-vote-in-german-election | Will the CDU/CSU win over 40% of the vote in the German election? | 70,568,518 | 70,568,518 |
16f8127d6556ca15103162ecf388e002cd96150c | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xaa3a9a9194dca732fb9201a8dd5b9a37e92d05e95f04bcd7680b924561f33649 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March? | Event: will-microstrategy-hold-500k-btc-before-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.00022710808567753983
2. Question: Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before March? | Event: will-trump-remove-blanket-tariff-on-mexico-before-march | Choice: no... | yes | 1 | nba-rebounds-leader | Will Evan Mobley lead the NBA in Rebounds? | 70,568,520 | 70,568,520 |
cc38cef4df47cb56f265a4f397c93f0aefc900c7 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x4411688b128d9652bbad80a99ad722b63e47b4cabd0982f42510971744587c06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before March? | Event: will-trump-remove-blanket-tariff-on-mexico-before-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? | Event: trump-declassifies-jfk-files-in-first-100-days | Choice: no | Confidence: 8.18... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election? | 70,568,521 | 70,568,521 |
8858600113672cb3771a3b63cc6129f30795bd0b | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x98b6df7f0db86e88e358aa57a8bc2eb48b8f26f9be3d933e58d6ee9e76c00d37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? | Event: trump-declassifies-jfk-files-in-first-100-days | Choice: no | Confidence: 8.187329621450596e-05
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Event: trump-wins-ends-ukraine-war-in-90-days | Choice: yes | Confidence: 8.48679503... | yes | 1 | nba-rebounds-leader | Will Jarrett Allen lead the NBA in Rebounds? | 70,568,524 | 70,568,524 |
629b06af2f807dc314eab9d637600de2f52d51ac | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x0f165820f41a24f8d5782913e850f7617bcc57399da2dbe2456907d72b172852 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Event: trump-wins-ends-ukraine-war-in-90-days | Choice: yes | Confidence: 8.486795031948475e-05
2. Question: Will an EU nation recognize Syrian government by March 31? | Event: who-will-recognize-syrian-government-by-march-31 | Choice: no | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | nba-most-improved-player | Will Jalen Williams win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | 70,568,526 | 70,568,526 |
cc9a227a1f53d0cbab8435e9c42132161f3bf16a | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x7e84002d49c772d2083afaec7fbe129481f7ef8d269973dfa9b14c7fe9ee0b03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will an EU nation recognize Syrian government by March 31? | Event: who-will-recognize-syrian-government-by-march-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | Event: nfl-mvp-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.501432664756447
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | la-liga-winner | Will Real Betis win La Liga? | 70,568,527 | 70,568,527 |
436845293ed74a6104df7365e1d1388b5e087562 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x2d7e29af3bba553a336d02292525b67218cfa5a6f123ed0eda1bd44d9981526e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | Event: nfl-mvp-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.501432664756447
2. Question: Linea airdrop in Q1 2025? | Event: airdrops-in-q1-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | stanley-cup-winner | Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | 70,568,528 | 70,568,528 |
144f6fb5cade8a018e50d3a33d5ef69d2898a1e8 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x1eaf199539629acaedafc165a72d556757babf5f896bd1fce1c9b2247e9f94fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Linea airdrop in Q1 2025? | Event: airdrops-in-q1-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | Event: nfl-mvp-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? | Event: nfl-mvp-1 |... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | 70,568,529 | 70,568,529 |
7b28822be205c91d170ec77532084e638b8d7b3f | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x268a8c551c574d999d37fee1530820558a22a6a58a8bb7b4b69d3ccfb2bb07c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | Event: nfl-mvp-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? | Event: nfl-mvp-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | E... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? | 70,568,530 | 70,568,530 |
b5d16e144e834511d151999a02028735772769bd | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xc6798ad2863ce49e34e409bd5edaf0f4b34d591988f601bd3653d0a1797f5999 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? | Event: nfl-mvp-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | Event: nfl-mvp-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidentia... | yes | 1 | europa-league-winner-24-25 | Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? | 70,568,533 | 70,568,533 |
00b78a8a17231738099826de5ccb1c77c8847e40 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xbf1c5538c4ca4a66107c8af0f87b891da7de74f3ea09875d4c837ff2b922253d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | Event: nfl-mvp-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? | Event: ecuador-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase... | yes | 1 | nba-rebounds-leader | Will Nicolas Claxton lead the NBA in Rebounds? | 70,568,535 | 70,568,535 |
f673225337c49c0a4079cd2409088966e212a434 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x891c92ef400365bd12188ce0a9330e8fbf4fd243a52648e301d6a0610e2d7144 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? | Event: ecuador-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-feb-4-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | ucl-bay-b04-2025-03-05 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-03-05? | 70,568,536 | 70,568,536 |
f17fac4a7f02e774d22a175532e095b36c00fb77 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x2f9ac2ac323b01e3b3dd6f9659a3e26baad58929c6b6bc9aa2703376c6c1128a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-feb-4-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in February? | Event: will-kanye-launch-a-coin-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ipswich Town wins the... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,540 | 70,568,540 |
5c39506bd311cb0a2cb7f396c862934a2de217fb | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x2af6e1aab22e6176fe2d87f955fb1aaa6d383d29822869136509a6bb20efdb14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in February? | Event: will-kanye-launch-a-coin-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Paolo Banchero lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,541 | 70,568,541 |
e4e813f9accf2a2eb244be7d8537b71d65ca23d4 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xdfafea05c48721f477c0adfa5b5e6cd38387f8425b96f2f53e97d48e7ceedd0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-mil-fey-2025-02-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Benfica vs. Monaco end in a draw? | Event: ucl-ben-mon-2025... | yes | 1 | serie-a-winner | Will AC Milan win the Serie A? | 70,568,543 | 70,568,543 |
0c553a298514b191c7d113e7c2ef22cd4536f8d5 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x03268fe1c6335a8aab9631dd53e61aee2e3f214eb4eee8c91455258581ed4e8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-mil-fey-2025-02-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Benfica vs. Monaco end in a draw? | Event: ucl-ben-mon-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-bay-cel-2025-02-1... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Cam Thomas lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,546 | 70,568,546 |
7514bdda2fd10351af291baa6eb2d332b3a14c4f | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x4ce4703ed3e70c97b55ba891dcc61009b099c5517a7dc2a75dd4cd5725e9397a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Benfica vs. Monaco end in a draw? | Event: ucl-ben-mon-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-bay-cel-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-bay-cel-2025-02-18... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,547 | 70,568,547 |
79f2aea38fbe018840adf58906f50a4a63344669 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xac20ad5bc323b73b60c38f350cde5b22e39b1a9503d4cd57c16b2b3dba9389e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-bay-cel-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-bay-cel-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Club Brugge win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-ata-bru-2025-02-18 | ... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Zion Williamson lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,553 | 70,568,553 |
1cd7337583135271de3d8d300516fec34a5a63d4 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x4e2f44031d8f6d4c7e8cfbb727fdda42878c3a1d1d56ec502d86c0f89d559920 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-bay-cel-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Brugge win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-ata-bru-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AC Milan vs. Feyenoord end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mil-fey-2025-02-... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,554 | 70,568,554 |
fd880670155e90a0c4bdf8e1cf7053864f117dd5 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x4a2ed17061b028cc8f9fc8f98837a33bc04e2a42d5613798c9717ba8b1c8ecda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Club Brugge win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-ata-bru-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan vs. Feyenoord end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mil-fey-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Feyenoord win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-mil-fey-2025-... | yes | 1 | nba-mvp-2024-25 | Will Joel Embiid win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | 70,568,560 | 70,568,560 |
a72b4c238ccaefdda155e119b08565a07be92f83 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xed0d61e40b7d25b1d78f7dd7fdb9de052302a72dd8b5b0a5e8d182853cf48c02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan vs. Feyenoord end in a draw? | Event: ucl-mil-fey-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-mil-fey-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta vs. Club Brugge end in a draw? | Event: ucl-ata-... | yes | 1 | bundesliga-winner | Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? | 70,568,560 | 70,568,560 |
d3284267af595fa368994b270314d50142093c99 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x53e30386f2c5956567a433f3ecc872dc916d6e848c734c894b46e7aa32c42f94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Feyenoord win on 2025-02-18? | Event: ucl-mil-fey-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta vs. Club Brugge end in a draw? | Event: ucl-ata-bru-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | E... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Kyrie Irving lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,608 | 70,568,608 |
fb7b58a787a7c31095cd34d15633b38a8d136487 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xd9df70e06952f5d5a7466ff60e0e0577c609ce25a43f617f158f721870317229 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta vs. Club Brugge end in a draw? | Event: ucl-ata-bru-2025-02-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.999999999345599
3. Question: Will SPD win th... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-actor | Will Colman Domingo win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars? | 70,568,609 | 70,568,609 |
8325e1dc34d11b9ec8a821e00b4012672f57e7bd | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x7da56aee1cc096ea5ffba984c0513c9dee8d6f562326ac446daf1d0514ce2453 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.999999999345599
2. Question: Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | nba-rebounds-leader | Will Nikola Vucevic lead the NBA in Rebounds? | 70,568,611 | 70,568,611 |
8c597820b770348a7f41a7e78a06dab7d93b7e8c | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x4304c3031a89b4dfbc635cac9b5bb076389144ade85f174088b74f2b7de701bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | nba-mvp-2024-25 | Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | 70,568,612 | 70,568,612 |
295feedca8317f10f08bdef9d0375a57da14378f | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x9e9f6f9703e3e5114393813b6741f3cfe47a723b09b36778cf68a5a6d81ee3c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-bay-b04-2025-03-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7306791569086651
3. Question: Will Barce... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,613 | 70,568,613 |
d6492579d3e869776626e3d0884b3089e4c49088 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x26ec6dad9b19b796ca3af8b136ada2fae49af0e559097d15e096b284e570cbfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-bay-b04-2025-03-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7306791569086651
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-ben-bar-2025-03-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Zoe Saldaña win Best Supporting Actress at the ... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,628 | 70,568,628 |
10faaf08ebf6bcf79fb9d4e2e3d773f579017926 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x311c2e45aabbe6396cb0d08fd27440d0efe4dd5c6e396340f7e0ed812258cba2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-ben-bar-2025-03-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zoe Saldaña win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-supporting-actress | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.23662779987346766
3. Question: Will Ruby Dhalla ... | yes | 1 | nba-mvp-2024-25 | Will Jayson Tatum win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | 70,568,630 | 70,568,630 |
c99b3705124261ad01ea2794dff79e6526299506 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x27e3084fa5d09c44aeeffb9c15eb9e403b462486745ac0ce1453f2ae924c092a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zoe Saldaña win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-supporting-actress | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.23662779987346766
2. Question: Will Ruby Dhalla be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | Event: next-leader-of-canadian-liberal-party | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | nba-mvp-2024-25 | Will Anthony Davis win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | 70,568,631 | 70,568,631 |
5b80608a3927d6351fbb7c09fbffa188099c91c8 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x51b431a9a50585cf4e33e22c3d9f7d73ea6f0bce08947287f948d217a74a8b1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ruby Dhalla be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | Event: next-leader-of-canadian-liberal-party | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the CDU/CSU win over 40% of the vote in the German election? | Event: cducsu-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | nba-assists-leader | Will Darius Garland lead the NBA in Assists? | 70,568,715 | 70,568,715 |
191ed2872280915ad4ef25acc0bca63d2ed94ad2 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xf7cef3b542a3a6ecc942a6bf0a64d9e7268f0c6ef00f414df14fbc3de6ba1240 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the CDU/CSU win over 40% of the vote in the German election? | Event: cducsu-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Evan Mobley lead the NBA in Rebounds? | Event: nba-rebounds-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SPD win the secon... | yes | 1 | nba-rebounds-leader | Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in Rebounds? | 70,568,722 | 70,568,722 |
22d39baed8a0d55b8d6916e7c38b46c0b58ea6c2 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xd3ba7529a09565c7b00390e2f0f8440e30e48bb7216e7e6fa5d65e545db1862e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Evan Mobley lead the NBA in Rebounds? | Event: nba-rebounds-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ja... | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? | 70,568,724 | 70,568,724 |
13b6237c9ff1484821fb3218ebb358f7f9add085 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xa4705e044a230e5d0bd5f7fd66d7c4bbc025ec06339ce68b9eaa091b0903d3fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jarrett Allen lead the NBA in Rebounds? | Event: nba-rebounds-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | nba-mvp-2024-25 | Will Kevin Durant win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | 70,568,761 | 70,568,761 |
42ae34ad2557c4dba13fa6878e2c5ca2b796aa67 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xc46c3f0c348f5cfbbffab2b918e590bc56a760b9bbf94fc76509927a37989f2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jarrett Allen lead the NBA in Rebounds? | Event: nba-rebounds-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jalen Williams win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win La Liga? | Event: la-lig... | yes | 1 | nba-most-improved-player | Will Victor Wembanyama win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | 70,568,763 | 70,568,763 |
b5f4dbb2835a48be665e732d824a03fcd6da4166 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x872b293fc86a2e392b344fcda74799c8a77f6d54e17b1eaf2ac04b81edb45505 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jalen Williams win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win La Liga? | Event: la-liga-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Event:... | yes | 1 | stanley-cup-winner | Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | 70,568,765 | 70,568,765 |
9e5c6ff182f95291d722330c58750ffb9de2f523 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x837d4dd0a296710c7b1ff6174d2cc608bc0f9d4b0913501a831135eedfb00800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Betis win La Liga? | Event: la-liga-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Event: stanley-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German elec... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-actress | Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | 70,568,766 | 70,568,766 |
0a6cc065e03aae44c5400a5f101efc4d82f4a4c6 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x4278b4ae82832f01f735a8fa14c4febdb208fd9a5190a9143ca07e52ca684a2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Event: stanley-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-picture | Will "The Substance" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | 70,568,773 | 70,568,773 |
6728fa00198007fc696a95738eb2800c759f8f35 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xd43b1de4417879a010d0c85b18cabebfa46d0c66590921eae5fb041db0c9b202 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | nba-rebounds-leader | Will Jalen Duren lead the NBA in Rebounds? | 70,568,775 | 70,568,775 |
f88fc900ced5bf74223660ec3fd3bd9d906284f4 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x0f7a81c2dc56e729161409670e9d8408cf29595f50a5096cfa63ae78aeedcaf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nicolas ... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-picture | Will "Wicked" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | 70,568,783 | 70,568,783 |
dca413248d92c5be9f0f49bf55e48ab7cf84d0d2 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x9fe0c8a4716d2ae32409a41147362544f99ef53731bda4731514c18ccb8beb09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicolas Claxton lead the NBA in Rebounds? | Event: nba-rebounds-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-03-05? | E... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-director | Will Jacques Audiard win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Emilia Pérez"? | 70,568,784 | 70,568,784 |
50fe115686b096cdedae96958604bfe23e75c02b | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xaa6c3ccef4aeacb28c80ae527d3aa6bea86bccc0342783148401c0ae82b54901 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicolas Claxton lead the NBA in Rebounds? | Event: nba-rebounds-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-bay-b04-2025-03-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: n... | yes | 1 | nba-assists-leader | Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in Assists? | 70,568,785 | 70,568,785 |
1b60948ec5214d51c19fc98a5e6dd2e2236a24d3 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x9473680c7b89aa1f876860e61b9f2e990c484a951a4c2fd1679dd9b23ead21c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-03-05? | Event: ucl-bay-b04-2025-03-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paolo Banchero lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-picture | Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | 70,568,787 | 70,568,787 |
d045cd06a51f21c4b710f99eb63c3ec6e0d6f48b | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xea31a3403573ee680731ead6fc8e83768653ad8d35046427f0032569fa22e2d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paolo Banchero lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AC Milan win the Serie A? | Event: serie-a-winner | C... | yes | 1 | fastest-lap-at-f1-winter-testing | Will Racing Bulls record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? | 70,568,788 | 70,568,788 |
1e9d27dc19bea72c8c13b831e0cbb58fec1214e8 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x1bbac858895078cfa86b58223a8be24f6eec96059dc1ad146ac4bcdacd159c33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paolo Banchero lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win the Serie A? | Event: serie-a-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cam Thomas lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choi... | yes | 1 | nba-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will Anthony Davis win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | 70,568,789 | 70,568,789 |
b2f1c32d22ac525769daa8bf2221faed25a44313 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x310b7db3e226208b84f1784f8b8cbe99e8f681b3f251637b8e52b27002d7a3fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win the Serie A? | Event: serie-a-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cam Thomas lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-actress | Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | 70,568,791 | 70,568,791 |
8892222a103b7953b70d77b6eb28f71f329f1dfa | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x8dbb07df5c9410a881ce35256506b3b2ab382b1589280efb904e00c3bc8adac5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cam Thomas lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Zion Williamson lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scor... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-picture | Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | 70,568,792 | 70,568,792 |
dd0c425f7c89d8307cda143195204ed67ab12eeb | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x46ecf22952c5f84fb9b216eb0c8ea7476fe4be2a0fe97823d497bfa96023fe91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zion Williamson lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-... | yes | 1 | nba-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will Dillon Brooks win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | 70,568,794 | 70,568,794 |
a2c322ed5c76ee075a5093b8340e1d70eebac891 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xd58d2a98a7a17291cecbff258f6742786d0887181156e481537b9761d73e2115 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zion Williamson lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Joel Embiid win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Event: nba-m... | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | 70,568,795 | 70,568,795 |
ad65237b32f40d0994043de8ef3b47979877c70c | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xdec476babc4fdd3969b7403d1593d20ef548a3673632ac872cacde9fad427cb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joel Embiid win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Event: nba-mvp-2024-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? | Event: bundesliga-winner |... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-international-feature-film | Will "The Girl with the Needle" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 70,568,796 | 70,568,796 |
719f2b43281ebc33619d3e3676bf659d66ee16b8 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x3e68d05d469fe82c0f7cfb97abb8263563fe58c1e381ecd6e7b06a399bd24d24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joel Embiid win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Event: nba-mvp-2024-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? | Event: bundesliga-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kyrie Irving lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | C... | yes | 1 | nba-rebounds-leader | Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in Rebounds? | 70,568,800 | 70,568,800 |
a4caff78e4e6fc21cb0b6dd789254df8bdad5749 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xee4253b96d6b04be3b17eb36b9abc5faa261214bf5b8d83bcf71ce9a78efdfb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? | Event: bundesliga-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kyrie Irving lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Colman Domingo win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars... | yes | 1 | nba-6th-man-of-the-year | Will Tari Eason win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? | 70,568,802 | 70,568,802 |
f3da2bd53311ec74a8481cd3448991c3313cb5de | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x3b13e3e4c81a1a87e926906ba47bca3be6705bd2e11c71e53fc4146deff174b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kyrie Irving lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Colman Domingo win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-actor | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nikola Vucevic lead the NBA in Rebounds? | Ev... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will another player lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,807 | 70,568,807 |
7bf68ff6f8e146836bb0c75204a6e027022904f2 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x5175837d4f69da5d036eafb1e01edd94bc9a97557a3d9d637f94d89151074acb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Colman Domingo win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-actor | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nikola Vucevic lead the NBA in Rebounds? | Event: nba-rebounds-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2024-25 NBA MVP... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,807 | 70,568,807 |
9aa59e43239f70e193eb17409421f630bd11dbd7 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x54fe3865c59f0ba109f2f8b91d3d0943690e4940504265fa278f16da5406fd9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nikola Vucevic lead the NBA in Rebounds? | Event: nba-rebounds-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Event: nba-mvp-2024-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,807 | 70,568,807 |
9dc915e272c56b51b3eb29d2657020a8d28ce6fa | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x64ac31f14701d7aa97e9b3b245be8b82408c236126428ac3e30a6cd490ebdcec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Event: nba-mvp-2024-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Anfernee Simons lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,807 | 70,568,807 |
82ecfc90faa21203da0f99a20935dfca9ec9467a | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x81d0a0f224d7441282c9d3b5d253ed4119176cbc9be40b67e48b2b4a73154433 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jayson Tatum win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Event: nba-mv... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,807 | 70,568,807 |
bd1e696ebe41ee3df6a1fd10732e4f99edb06eda | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x8d762b96d3a92f61823a593e64ec6cd2287f4671a25a1a4824961d5ba8bcf5a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jayson Tatum win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Event: nba-mvp-2024-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Anthony Davis win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Event: nba-mvp-202... | yes | 1 | afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? | 70,568,807 | 70,568,807 |
da4bdf8a24968fd30aef174699a9e2d165c52292 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xb1bcd37cbb577814102daf418ec8855829b7584f764889f5d9b8e12f2da623c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Event: nba-mvp-2024-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anthony Davis win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Event: nba-mvp-2024-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Darius Garland lead the NBA in Assists? | Event: nba-assists-... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,807 | 70,568,807 |
ef72b2bdab2d2494cbe90edbd46c21fdfe818ecf | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xbf081d626f1b23b620a0d498c265168fcf9ab6782145e9281cff303a3c8cead0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anthony Davis win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Event: nba-mvp-2024-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Darius Garland lead the NBA in Assists? | Event: nba-assists-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in Rebounds? | Event: nba-reb... | yes | 1 | nba-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will Jalen Suggs win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | 70,568,807 | 70,568,807 |
85fe83bf65d4e004a610ee934eab24aff031e48a | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xc9b993cf48d5555c7a3ad07c82a3505a4d21c0e577707589ee24eb5d7a93bae6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Darius Garland lead the NBA in Assists? | Event: nba-assists-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in Rebounds? | Event: nba-rebounds-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: c... | yes | 1 | next-leader-of-canadian-liberal-party | Will Dominic LeBlanc be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | 70,568,807 | 70,568,807 |
6aea3e655ec24143c322b99b89bb436ea856dcd8 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x3d027a26adc07c1b2894954103db1a4313a7c0792d81b2564e3bd497752a3e57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in Rebounds? | Event: nba-rebounds-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kevin Durant win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | ... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,811 | 70,568,811 |
ce540bb16d554ddbce80001953a0ee582e569491 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x755b0984412809a3802944bf6d30eea14de540edf9c91500940aaf7c81d17a0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kevin Durant win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Event: nba-mvp-2024-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Victor Wembanyama win 2024-25 NBA Most Improve... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will LaMelo Ball lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,811 | 70,568,811 |
0227978c3bed856fc9ee5ad8253ab8d05ddf2044 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x7649f373858bf50f5b7ef8e11d8cfdf8036319cd0f57673d11fd2e7d24f180af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kevin Durant win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Event: nba-mvp-2024-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Victor Wembanyama win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanl... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,811 | 70,568,811 |
f2494431f146b4f413cc991593b8d482df2a3353 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x861e411e687fdde2753c7723f238bfd028b6b1aa3d0de97b141d244acdc5854d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Victor Wembanyama win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Event: nba-most-improved-player | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Event: stanley-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best... | yes | 1 | nba-assists-leader | Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in Assists? | 70,568,811 | 70,568,811 |
88ff640b929a95f7c2d154194d104bdf30ba1299 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x8958c6464359ba927b09a2f03663a6f450e2f1eeae66edadc697a541d73bd458 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Event: stanley-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "The Substance" win Best ... | yes | 1 | spd-of-vote-in-german-election | Will the SPD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? | 70,568,811 | 70,568,811 |
8280a9e8e8fb6f1a0c58daa97a8af9354c537e00 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xa4e382494285a0ba4498623710c2e21102f2ffaffa532dde564fe83b2e616251 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Substance" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jalen Duren lead the ... | yes | 1 | next-leader-of-canadian-liberal-party | Will Sean Fraser be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | 70,568,811 | 70,568,811 |
1066c5f04918d49d92cac711578662193bddc961 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xc50248c9651c9c832a4d73c024f4a4a48d289b7ec08a80a65ee3b74f90e37fe2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Substance" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jalen Duren lead the NBA in Rebounds? | Event: nba-rebounds-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Wicked" win Best Picture at the 2025 O... | no | 0.999999 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | 70,568,811 | 70,568,811 |
d58acd2327796cab09c5fb32d8e0bf8526ae7e91 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xd69304048975a985229872c758a4d630eeba2422bf691f75f12ed4a90cb2ce91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jalen Duren lead the NBA in Rebounds? | Event: nba-rebounds-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wicked" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jacques Audiard win Best Director at the 2025 ... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Kevin Durant lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,568,811 | 70,568,811 |
f1f964fa618faa138ba44546ac687312950333a8 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xe969e0250d4ce4fef1922710f4ce55218aa8b76ae46c69741444de9187e8c2d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Wicked" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jacques Audiard win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Emilia Pérez"? | Event: oscars-best-director | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Luka Donci... | yes | 1 | next-leader-of-canadian-liberal-party | Will Mélanie Joly be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | 70,568,811 | 70,568,811 |
b520d693d2c42b63f48f5b217f26ea3b17ef2e26 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0xf93660084fe450ce104644078abb801012baf4238d61763e26165fc5b42b155b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jacques Audiard win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Emilia Pérez"? | Event: oscars-best-director | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in Assists? | Event: nba-assists-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "I'm Still Here" win... | yes | 1 | ontario-parliamentary-election-winner | Will the New Democrats win the most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election? | 70,568,811 | 70,568,811 |
498cbc8f442fcb7fce7066bd4a6c51b8523dfc9d | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x00fe5e24e1834a4bd5d59bae32530eb6c158ed4c0898c4aaf95b488ca94dafca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in Assists? | Event: nba-assists-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Racing Bulls record the fastest lap at 2... | yes | 1 | spd-of-vote-in-german-election | Will the SPD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? | 70,568,834 | 70,568,834 |
3757f62de907e0cb9f354f25261a12eb14991618 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x2e054149e361505211eae9ecbf583a4b3da0bbf2dbdefa2693a80f292c4bc146 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Racing Bulls record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? | Event: fastest-lap-at-f1-winter-testing | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | nba-assists-leader | Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in Assists? | 70,568,834 | 70,568,834 |
1c72f4eb61bcd87bac796c74e6c9a9539839bcb5 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x3a1a1cb37faaddf37ef72e2ff43ad3ef50d2151a2c0dbcf7a787ae60de627a4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Racing Bulls record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? | Event: fastest-lap-at-f1-winter-testing | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Anthony Davis win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | Event: nba-defensive-player-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | next-leader-of-canadian-liberal-party | Will Francois-Philippe Champagne be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | 70,568,834 | 70,568,834 |
4d856f71024111a9288f5fda9bc8247de7de7bf0 | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x4e9bdd6abd1cad3c1b180c5ca2ad34b1cdeea2a7e1bc2e7f455eedfb694ee447 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anthony Davis win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | Event: nba-defensive-player-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Concl... | yes | 1 | nba-assists-leader | Will another player lead the NBA in Assists? | 70,568,834 | 70,568,834 |
1a64f8b959910989ece3b1f7b54e976893eeb53c | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x5539325abfd29d7a909ff0747b5721f0b8eedc56de51a365132b56a34e0d2cd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dillon Brooks win 2024-25 NBA D... | yes | 1 | nba-assists-leader | Will Immanuel Quickley lead the NBA in Assists? | 70,568,834 | 70,568,834 |
8f73a58a66b979539c546a51c186dc1d619ca1fc | 0x11a5645c73d75af5d0cef807f1c29fdcc48b4032 | 0x6fa2ad0806eba7a56ce5a674f0927397772ba2ed9da0ad77fea9cecd3f90ee5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dillon Brooks win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | Event: nba-defensive-player-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madr... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28? | 70,568,834 | 70,568,834 |
9aafc306d1a1c731fe91c22490fcc6d0da03d522 | 0x11cab93af1bb0db476c6c39faa6899857477c3c9 | 0x21d7c804b66f91d22c8b5979b447f9abccd551930640fa75af6ebc6896ac5aae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Spain beat Portugal?
Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Will Spain beat Portugal? | 72,534,958 | 72,534,958 |
bb4cd954c1d4c88171f405ca3d3423876cb5888e | 0x11cab93af1bb0db476c6c39faa6899857477c3c9 | 0x13d5835166c2a0a65752972b26e8416a352bbbfc51c954a76c74d06b465db6d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Mikel Oyarzabal be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match?
Event: uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match
Predict the user's choice and c... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match | Will Mikel Oyarzabal be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match? | 72,537,015 | 72,537,015 |
71e785b0038cfa61985593cdb809ab2f6151ac78 | 0x11cab93af1bb0db476c6c39faa6899857477c3c9 | 0x4c5fa178fc904b56bf7cc99a4a5ffd5b0e0880dba99a982b86c369a98984c407 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikel Oyarzabal be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match? | Event: uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target mar... | yes | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-colombia-769 | Will Argentina beat Colombia? | 72,626,178 | 72,626,178 |
24a49fd469b0bd26ecf3cd55b7cb0728a75b7d69 | 0x11cab93af1bb0db476c6c39faa6899857477c3c9 | 0x7552ae6be49dcf004950864d388d063c4251792d0baad2fa139bd9ae7cd49881 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikel Oyarzabal be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match? | Event: uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | f1-canadian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Canadian GP pole? | 72,784,882 | 72,784,882 |
afd9689ee5eabce03a172982916a6e1a4306ac06 | 0x11cab93af1bb0db476c6c39faa6899857477c3c9 | 0xa174f32af89ca6dfa702f9aa009b63433f47e1086205e485581b24d0e9a76890 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikel Oyarzabal be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match? | Event: uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | f1-canadian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Canadian GP pole? | 72,784,882 | 72,784,882 |
4a8b5078266eb90c359360142e06f341cd6fffc4 | 0x11cab93af1bb0db476c6c39faa6899857477c3c9 | 0xbc45c9933ab1f08affa969e8ed7883c927df0801bf6108342065252ecc129e76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikel Oyarzabal be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match? | Event: uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-al-ahly-vs-inter-miami-cf | Will Inter Miami CF beat Al Ahly? | 72,810,350 | 72,810,350 |
a8a73fc6add652f1c1229a17e8427dcba24eabe3 | 0x11cab93af1bb0db476c6c39faa6899857477c3c9 | 0xa6aff712e4ddce672b6eda9a7bb719b6d798bf96d7afff1777ffd49e93566e1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikel Oyarzabal be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match? | Event: uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-palmeiras-vs-fc-porto | Will FC Porto beat Palmeiras? | 72,824,015 | 72,824,015 |
1318b3cee28db4cc888a7eddf4d35a28f8706be4 | 0x11cab93af1bb0db476c6c39faa6899857477c3c9 | 0x842d591c84db48c0c2309cde4ceba4adbf7b9a181261b853798599fa76b36e53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikel Oyarzabal be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match? | Event: uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-boca-juniors-vs-benfica | Will Benfica beat Boca Juniors? | 72,863,711 | 72,863,711 |
8456d5dd44041c2a054a1d9723a7855d712401a8 | 0x11cab93af1bb0db476c6c39faa6899857477c3c9 | 0xad8e080fa560b67ca7588075eca8a45507f4970c9fe1baccf15240c6dee2b780 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikel Oyarzabal be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match? | Event: uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-pachuca-vs-rb-salzburg | Will Pachuca vs. RB Salzburg end in a draw? | 72,970,745 | 72,970,745 |
e9d72e12cc23b6eee3064862d144b25b7a53a6f3 | 0x11cab93af1bb0db476c6c39faa6899857477c3c9 | 0xccf60f7f50863bf2900b2cf4196dd77fab28df7ddeb3bbf8e07ae477de2fb3fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikel Oyarzabal be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match? | Event: uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-b-winner-886 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,146,523 | 73,146,523 |
09ae4c9b046ed1c95dd35df562cc27109d91e53b | 0x11cab93af1bb0db476c6c39faa6899857477c3c9 | 0xea21e2d49136c3bfcd0024c515759fbd107e25c93d6bc379558c5f4b66d773fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikel Oyarzabal be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match? | Event: uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-mamelodi-vs-fluminense | Will Fluminense beat Mamelodi? | 73,230,005 | 73,230,005 |
829fc1cb3a2d3c30121d538cde96c5301cf74f4c | 0x11cab93af1bb0db476c6c39faa6899857477c3c9 | 0x28bac6eb660d995daaa1dd5f5d4b564dd523d0b35f65f417f89db6f2d60cbaa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikel Oyarzabal be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match? | Event: uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? | 73,369,310 | 73,369,310 |
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