sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
fa79752b2b96f08d00e0affa3111d7b7396a71c5 | 0x11cab93af1bb0db476c6c39faa6899857477c3c9 | 0xc6327ed98c1a23e85704e52c527e2597d3d96d4700f897bdd88ccce0b5ebab9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikel Oyarzabal be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match? | Event: uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Will Fluminense vs. Al Hilal end in a draw after regulation time? | 73,603,381 | 73,603,381 |
4b288198c7249ae9f1dca56ad7394d9e2922492a | 0x11cab93af1bb0db476c6c39faa6899857477c3c9 | 0x753748c12214ee6b3d4ce6100c9302ca1491e27b50302bf3e1df8ebd7fe2aa88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikel Oyarzabal be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match? | Event: uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $111K on July 11? | 73,847,164 | 73,847,164 |
3d4d34a0f1e00d1780511d9cb4a559027744d6de | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0xfd5db367809c7009dfb0a1153c8dc6054b3ab2fcc8910ce0427cf7c15fb8a84d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19?
Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | 77,924,351 | 77,924,351 |
1316b402e840655c962b7ffe0986a318a039c656 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x6357420f127da202885b329b0ab345d8e4cad127e8f85f3919cbcc43b5fc1511 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21?
Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choi... | yes | 1 | ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | 78,004,504 | 78,004,504 |
c440e72ef0fd7490f3df6886d121ce2eab49688a | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x9fc7409858de8572111082603e165c85e3a6078009db880a5fe5fb57d6c4c3c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21?
Event: uc... | yes | 1 | ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | 78,004,504 | 78,004,504 |
50fa3cec2f4ad64878602c8849a063311737a02d | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0xa97e77fd0f8970f1d081d53639167b53a9d26f0cf44d00dd318eb13ae6f486e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | 78,004,504 | 78,004,504 |
810912af26c87de08abbee625c682288d520678e | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x127300171a2767a8c17847029930cf5a67874c27e547c9a824669d064988ad7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | ucl-psv-nap-2025-10-21 | Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-10-21? | 78,073,689 | 78,073,689 |
b1f993a8bae27073f6ed9f4faa45e18ee15d0c07 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x4b4caf76961295eb5da7926b2e853d8f14177a47e0a075547d7a02798f4abfba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Will Páfos FC win on 2025-10-21? | 78,073,689 | 78,073,689 |
a12fbd574a174acdb7dbf7a33b90ae46c23f698a | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x7b1bed3872eb2d8112a5697e06613ee01f0956cd11a0a049999465289ca351a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | no | 1 | ucl-spo-olm-2025-10-22 | Will Sporting CP win on 2025-10-22? | 78,073,689 | 78,073,689 |
27c3862e2f1daea4f0b288d98682758bccd7c0c8 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x945d18b0f4064b6a543d2e3b9841f26a912728d1fb1190e4a0395d5e6e3f181d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Will West Ham vs. Brentford end in a draw? | 78,073,689 | 78,073,689 |
8c898ff3ab83dc7a2e3def6c6543f35f07b03a14 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0xb58c245264199aeb507ebff167d07d74584144f643c50f6c9d259f8f1e3fbfa1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Will Napoli win on 2025-10-18? | 78,073,689 | 78,073,689 |
983ec2e7992676e74c799342b48e28a56d323038 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x2db5cda59a82c59bc42e3a3ff1020613b231136b15d21a7f9a741fe5e2aa4d30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | 78,248,973 | 78,248,973 |
6789444ec5899d60c4e66784100cf3f84fcfc8ae | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x37297ec2ec2f77707f999de7db7ae58dd4c7ddd1a0222eae605da9c8d7f87283 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | sea-lec-nap-2025-10-28 | Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28? | 78,311,654 | 78,311,654 |
cbe35611b95a64ffe1d55a73c383f80a1152c7f3 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x6a378ed42b6f9b7da0d50d42e0dbabc9c38e8a2eb0a84096f6e1fee443fa3ef5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | no | 1 | sea-ata-mil-2025-10-28 | Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-28? | 78,311,654 | 78,311,654 |
9d13f5ab1cbb4da8b42a6b045c8156c1ca6a7407 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0xeb34b745187ad8e2ee0c0cc7cd8f8f533afeedd677821725cbdeb3d02ccea178 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | sea-ata-mil-2025-10-28 | Will Atalanta vs. AC Milan end in a draw? | 78,311,654 | 78,311,654 |
58d551e5ce1174a8e08229839a34592af0a489a4 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0xb8f7945f6cd9bbe796a932196d6d3d4abb656b1fad0d5e33c03dc80ea126169d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | sea-rom-par-2025-10-29 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-29? | 78,337,762 | 78,337,762 |
6f610daa083adbcd7aad97a9152c7daf15e3801f | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0xbb2225a932831be03fcc3ab9fccbfa7f42e1bfaa4ef5074d69c81b2229af80dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | sea-com-ver-2025-10-29 | Will Como win on 2025-10-29? | 78,337,762 | 78,337,762 |
5d24efa4b6110ea1613be98bc8b2b19d5812fb55 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x7bed87a7817e89069456bdfd554ef19c16dbeffeef57273490f24a48a7e017b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | tur-iba-koc-2025-10-31 | Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2025-10-31? | 78,427,368 | 78,427,368 |
1048d5df7ddfe0bb0dd1ac6b37a2cdde6562bf61 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0xbc32fb8e68917c22abe553167ba0a4993ba333e8640728ce2e6389d26f216724 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | bun-aug-dor-2025-10-31 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31? | 78,427,368 | 78,427,368 |
ea7bca97a661fe9fcce0e5d3796cc178299259c7 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0xbcdacbc9ad1d18fb52e026e82c838f0e3b28aff71afea26dad4bd2f9bfec8577 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | efa-lut1-fgr-2025-10-31 | Will Luton Town FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,427,368 | 78,427,368 |
6fec429ad361411f811826f4032ed2f23d6fde58 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x0a69601d8ccda200e6af21ebeb5bc64e76657dd573d7e1b09eb4e21b02a25132 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? | 78,471,454 | 78,471,454 |
fa3316303eeb557738f4c327a2164acbb382bc4c | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x5f5f0b66297b8f3f2c159d9d67bfce1be8cf7db6a3a131d5de1afb8745c571ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | sea-cre-juv-2025-11-01 | Will Juventus win on 2025-11-01? | 78,471,454 | 78,471,454 |
104eef008c5e8d27bdf98ba27828c9f83c280ca7 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x767f05acadc2299c2b32c3d61490f34f6387bd987dce8c6023f2b1204d184e8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | elc-bir-mil-2025-11-04 | Will Birmingham City FC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,609,853 | 78,609,853 |
b30be1d0fffe1ab0e1bcf10db2f210b9e7fef17f | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x8b49262fc89b1185dfc9c88603e78cd120ba892cc688991f2440b5abda2bac9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | no | 1 | ucl-juv-spo-2025-11-04 | Will Sporting CP win on 2025-11-04? | 78,609,853 | 78,609,853 |
9949dd670504dca432b2f0b6f34ea2e3c83c6e50 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0xef0f0f5194f7042fc5a499d255638c0390c39e96c07171f36417c465b7d3edf1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | lal-sev-osa-2025-11-08 | Will Sevilla win on 2025-11-08? | 78,766,466 | 78,766,466 |
40e8ac1e543cb02ddf3a71ca1de3d92470d9d139 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x83c2d38b100d4c59ef8021abdd4bfd0fa2ff01445b8c689e63be1b77c590d884 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-bou-2025-11-09 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-09? | 78,809,944 | 78,809,944 |
d4983b068743a8e33bc29aa4d958849abb51d439 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x38ffcb53854781056775b21a612a0a3c8a88a0a37b9940171ab35b19645a5a65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | uef-cyp-aut-2025-11-15 | Will Austria win on 2025-11-15? | 79,090,111 | 79,090,111 |
e34960ab794e18abf82f203e284cc0521b4d5eb5 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x486be5adc1c1fbc6e796ebccd41b48b15368c55f1abcd3b50dcb9b51cf5a18ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | uef-che-swe-2025-11-15 | Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-15? | 79,090,111 | 79,090,111 |
2c0b7b91d352ec3d4edcc8bd6ab10cff4888d317 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x6b6d54abef11e44114b80264422c375dcab62836744e1438992283875e944710 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | uef-grc-sco-2025-11-15 | Will Greece win on 2025-11-15? | 79,090,111 | 79,090,111 |
d2361646f5d41d3dec01d0afab3c55fde5be9770 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0xa2afe366157d4bb47d596575f6dcffcc505eace6f56fe69983babee9c5802602 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | fif-bra-sen-2025-11-15 | Will Brazil win on 2025-11-15? | 79,090,111 | 79,090,111 |
f71b067c6c425f48536b3bfa9de987bf432902f4 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0xaa35bfbb79fdee6ec8c659ba3fffefa8fc23e37683ba410f118f56ac6c2a5ba1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Will England win on 2025-11-16? | 79,125,077 | 79,125,077 |
95ec922dab801db4487f985a4cee89e8b2bf98f7 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0xab9778d7d45a9e54666b23395c4af98fda75effacc2ab1359d94e632f1d0f5a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | uef-ukr-isl-2025-11-16 | Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16? | 79,125,077 | 79,125,077 |
636aad65b88e572170d50b742a08fa173e651f4b | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x9307ddc6ea0bf56377fd195cd90e177480573b524010b2924fc7d824f0c1ec8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2... | yes | 1 | uef-nir-lux-2025-11-17 | Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17? | 79,180,835 | 79,180,835 |
bc15b6ab510a9ab78ae8ef402599d75b43bc6fe4 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x047df26289ea109eb6628de650a2f9a3af67c6c21511af8f2b0ad0dade5a1870 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | Event... | yes | 1 | uef-wal-mac-2025-11-18 | Will Wales win on 2025-11-18? | 79,214,839 | 79,214,839 |
b320754685a7986aacdd7c7a1de85456e3af73d3 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x155c34007fe7ff10419c3677947d9fb8e19aadceb9d4a875e48074753eb766ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-psv-nap-... | yes | 1 | fif-mar-uga-2025-11-18 | Will Morocco win on 2025-11-18? | 79,214,839 | 79,214,839 |
358b3be75fc7c037a08cec33772331801ac82685 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0xa85f3835cc6cf0a12af6c39fcace98a308e143a48ed06bd92431813911370bd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-psv-nap-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Páfos FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-20... | yes | 1 | den-sif-agf-2025-11-21 | Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-11-21? | 79,348,279 | 79,348,279 |
71c82033cf90c7ab7184118c74fd3a8e3db9dc43 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x2bc59855a3638b1d6ff7f784cfd7084b4be61231e744511b9dc2dba219dbeac2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-psv-nap-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Páfos FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sporting CP win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-spo-olm-2025-10-22 | C... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-che-2025-11-22 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22? | 79,366,249 | 79,366,249 |
bb0429585a3874610a5897b6fda3afc4cf16d397 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x493ab0d47e5a99e72dbc8cc78147a25106d37163cfaee86606a25d23ef3a92bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Páfos FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sporting CP win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-spo-olm-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10... | no | 1 | lal-osa-rso-2025-11-22 | Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-22? | 79,390,917 | 79,390,917 |
28699969fc834c3a6e3d17361ebb7acc5794f050 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x565b79a09e4a8f0f6c926cee97e06fbba0223cad789cb0e77c191f8e0e9d0c95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sporting CP win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-spo-olm-2025-10-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-1... | yes | 1 | lal-vil-mal-2025-11-22 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-22? | 79,390,917 | 79,390,917 |
089b568a69c4471de21d76bd674da7474fe9e73d | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x58ee2392de07a7da49fd0135100ed7732f53f3ebd73d12cb980dad2f10342699 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham vs. Brentford end in a draw? | Event: epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-1... | yes | 1 | bun-aug-hsv-2025-11-22 | Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-11-22? | 79,390,917 | 79,390,917 |
29b4d27035d916f39e373d6e7daa627af7b8c1e0 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x6bc015795691e1a162e1b729960c85346387ad1a7c09338acd51790b7e98e01d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-10-18? | Event: sea-tor-nap-2025-10-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-lec-nap-2025-10-28 | Choic... | yes | 1 | bun-wol-b04-2025-11-22 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-11-22? | 79,390,917 | 79,390,917 |
8a27a41a7888084a083506b900c2e1d71d2000ec | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x88d02ee30611ad77350957169df0440fed08e9392cfe985ae8e7dbf4daf3c6cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? | Event: tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-lec-nap-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-ata-mil-2025-10-28 | Cho... | yes | 1 | bun-hei-moe-2025-11-22 | Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-11-22? | 79,390,917 | 79,390,917 |
63f9ca8e222a3e0676a1c589f572fc14c07d3ba1 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x68a0235e9f1fcf9323151495e0b8a72cbef07c196494ad765413edbcc66cc95a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-lec-nap-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-ata-mil-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta vs. AC Milan end in a draw? | Event: sea-ata-mil-2025-10-28 | ... | yes | 1 | den-vib-vbk-2025-11-23 | Will Viborg FF win on 2025-11-23? | 79,408,944 | 79,408,944 |
52cb4d2bdee0631a0df6abfefaba757536e671f4 | 0x11f0b71f62ae16eacb9c309de3053034ad6d890d | 0x4088feb20f5331a992ad187693d1ad8afca3ef8fdedbdcf4610c1e4a675316c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-ata-mil-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta vs. AC Milan end in a draw? | Event: sea-ata-mil-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-29? | Event: sea-rom-par-2025-10-29 |... | yes | 1 | sea-cre-rom-2025-11-23 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-23? | 79,410,939 | 79,410,939 |
9c6dd1aca9b0a08a0df8575ad5d40341893fbdc2 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x96c93a87056bc668bbedd2fd3bfa46fc333b821aa5c3b829695bccfbbd72e01f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26?
Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | 76,941,477 | 76,941,477 |
c8a3a369a7780d0a2f0e8146a0220fc9f34eba72 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x0df5782b01de0db8d3a66467171f50d5322a83a01cbd2b4ae985ed557f5838f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27?
Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target ... | yes | 1 | lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | 76,980,602 | 76,980,602 |
69cddb41657017f3f95d52c1f69ab80d23f5522b | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0xc71771948bdba1924a96fba6f67be96d6d21aea8ff81d613b9fca1e94e7ae18c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the p... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on September 27? | 76,980,624 | 76,980,624 |
ff00f2b23e89e832684b0c3c9a6f72d01e10b542 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0xaeb18fc7edd3275956f14316284b6f28312e6bfedadeae48330aa58e5593900d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | lal-vil-bil-2025-09-27 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-27? | 76,992,053 | 76,992,053 |
8bd8f192b00ac2523ec16324d1942731ce528c69 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x8b5ea1a6c7fd81f7268efd5f7d29faae1c389b7a606f0ac4a9d2259d74aa1738 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | lal-mad-rea-2025-09-27 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-27? | 76,992,108 | 76,992,108 |
e7ecebb39d7597cab78a1018bec7fcb74036a066 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x8f6c0849437b4356b72e85fc0622ba244d0dfb42805b929d621df8419da463d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | mex-ame-pum-2025-09-27 | Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-27? | 77,013,927 | 77,013,927 |
4ff27a807be40bb78dac4df5e730e5cc60f33d01 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0xf25e081538bfb9567aaf8e01c565a9d9c27708dc7a4ac897b1e4046e21a73010 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | bun-uni-hsv-2025-09-28 | Will Union Berlin vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? | 77,026,250 | 77,026,250 |
e6ee90ac922219d94fef12f58f0aeada06b58911 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x63fd5f6dd3b07a10ebc5ee13d60a1a98a52b24208e235091758cf2a759d57941 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | sea-par-tor-2025-09-29 | Will Parma win on 2025-09-29? | 77,062,432 | 77,062,432 |
6fc10bca941030ccd1f1f79e81d6b5db8507dbfb | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0xc197812e9ba8822fb8faa7098abcf5d6b9e4ee02236c0ddf925aa05159e13348 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | epl-new-ars-2025-09-28 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-28? | 77,062,457 | 77,062,457 |
1b32b7ed500cb3a02117e5a9a1372d64b8819049 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x33e55d87163d4d43df42e15bda01de6208fb020d1768065748c9e9c855bb85a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-wes-2025-09-29 | Will Everton vs. West Ham end in a draw? | 77,065,527 | 77,065,527 |
ec016ae3f1fdafc7fc2a6e6ce0538108bb1f6237 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0xbc7ae9ff5946d33d34b95aafb6c3095958d80c114b14baea274657fea7c13854 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-wes-2025-09-29 | Will West Ham win on 2025-09-29? | 77,065,527 | 77,065,527 |
622b914b7da4f659dab75576e947636d899b4d9b | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x49949e2d92fb188563dc8ca296b13f865d57987e0ed285a93c9b885052672e0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-wes-2025-09-29 | Will Everton win on 2025-09-29? | 77,066,176 | 77,066,176 |
e474b90030a29a5c2306a1a567b764bac6fbb264 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x3868ae093ea0c887ac3fefef9e42778df8d33c205d04afcb59b0b65887c486bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | sea-gen-laz-2025-09-29 | Will Lazio win on 2025-09-29? | 77,066,182 | 77,066,182 |
cd3d290dc75f974caa38e79d01504af7e89f0c9c | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0xe3b1b71d66d0e527a68a12b095d8a7dfff00dcb5c07fc3c87803d310fdd7240e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | arg-vel-cat-2025-09-29 | Will CA Tucumán win on 2025-09-29? | 77,073,615 | 77,073,615 |
3b5ecc26b1179b514a677589842a8def22bba997 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x23a151e5d3055185869d539b4656ca6e9bb224f1390386468f7419aecf3641bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | lal-val-ovi-2025-09-29 | Will Valencia win on 2025-09-29? | 77,110,286 | 77,110,286 |
1d170d703f0c22f333f9f0a63af9f202f0cc818b | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0xe5309bd23b725d585f41a485799a6bb09f26bc7a3ff3b09cbf24e536782cca11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | lal-val-ovi-2025-09-29 | Will Valencia vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? | 77,110,286 | 77,110,286 |
0d5a042fe3a75670634af3cfcfadc2c504f38101 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0xfe8cbe6d6305bc0a3d965c8e7b517b8a68613e8ced2ffb7d7d5f39bdecb60277 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | lal-val-ovi-2025-09-29 | Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-09-29? | 77,110,286 | 77,110,286 |
7909003379686dceba1b71e613e97da339987c4f | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0xa91ce249f5bd247385d0f06ef3a3f17170c77165aa4fb4241cd523084333ed94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | ucl-gal-liv-2025-09-30 | Will Galatasaray win on 2025-09-30? | 77,110,304 | 77,110,304 |
4e2054015f39249bece9fe4fdb24891a4941f509 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0xe7f05bc4906296f7bffd1edd5850da6c291c12c82bdd8117bcdb1ce5f66e8dd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | ucl-gal-liv-2025-09-30 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30? | 77,110,304 | 77,110,304 |
94dd2cbc3d3b66f1437d6fb803bd820c61e9cf96 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x1c54bb7b4b94ed15224cc69b465668a3f0a80bc3b6a909b0877d721cb3ec71b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | 77,113,685 | 77,113,685 |
4e71453116f0159e46afeacd8ac93723be225dee | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0xae3037a42665656caaef5793379b0369df9129828617a660d45e301a6551154b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | ucl-mad-fra-2025-09-30 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-30? | 77,113,760 | 77,113,760 |
c0e562f62a0fa152ab3684aab59771c6f3a59242 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x57989e3f2aaa284e43acd382912227a4f683f4625df480aeeb435427c3116416 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-ful-2025-10-03 | Will Fulham win on 2025-10-03? | 77,234,119 | 77,234,119 |
88daca22079b9ecdf26d7f85dff310bb5abea472 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x6f1c3c39d1dde0b6886fc06c68321fb2d40f7efcc6680eb0da12bf516614ad26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | lal-lev-ray-2025-10-19 | Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-19? | 77,960,250 | 77,960,250 |
a21cf4b9c5c40ceb9a5be367a8277ded3a4eafe9 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0xc9584ed4f6c4013a6c1ca2f98574a48ff0f084dc0cd255b3e3d13780f70357f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | sea-ata-laz-2025-10-19 | Will Atalanta vs. Lazio end in a draw? | 77,960,274 | 77,960,274 |
2b75a2a98acd6b75b780711533b11fb0cfc6c84f | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x33d3bf6f621c82978586a4e2aff6e4aa78efe44fb2792996928d1fcfaf3523df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-mun-2025-10-19 | Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw? | 77,960,290 | 77,960,290 |
e17bc277f169a364fac3b9f2469318f0f078d7f4 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x9b9a8c046153c831b11aadd789ab452d07e608dde3ebd4604105397ac73c47bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | bun-pau-hof-2025-10-19 | Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-10-19? | 77,960,300 | 77,960,300 |
1a7a017c2aa37181b283910e8abd43a289ffcc9e | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x82424bc9ac2a5b2fd1c5d70ec63b3e8043f10ed4dc42be9b59f2a2dbcb1ba87a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | fl1-lor-sbr-2025-10-19 | Will FC Lorient vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw? | 77,960,336 | 77,960,336 |
94026b5a4de3d23f1eab5750ea42fd57ecc8c6d9 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x3bf0459462fcd77a35a0a5020ee3c32e5ec980b2c3ffa7801f25b38cc880081f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | tur-riz-iba-2025-10-22 | Will Çaykur Rizespor vs. Rams Başakşehir FK end in a draw? | 78,041,748 | 78,041,748 |
92e43a23b7d9eb665a3e85f4e6d294cbd9c62803 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x82dbbd7eef5372626cc523c31135d01de9f17737dbc1ccb7b0da2845ca839c94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | tur-kon-bes-2025-10-22 | Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-10-22? | 78,041,817 | 78,041,817 |
d4f8899a4b4bdb56d8dd2524f89c47ab6717996f | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x04ad43ab542bf163eaac8473a06d645d020998a16a5015385bca9fd92f3c0432 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | ucl-gal-bog-2025-10-22 | Will Galatasaray SK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? | 78,041,838 | 78,041,838 |
e30cf04c767c7cef2366bc95ceff833d05f3e093 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0xb1769ed934b505c57e0af636a824c46d81efd528b08f996b610c5f356d6cfe6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | yes | 1 | mex-pum-asl-2025-10-22 | Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-10-22? | 78,069,103 | 78,069,103 |
ec441e970b0d39016811b91f63b7650e990116d5 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0xdd1cee1c8c01693007dd9a61e9a769be33b02779857828f7134c12512251bd21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mal-ala-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on September 27? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villarreal win on ... | yes | 1 | mls-por-rsl-2025-10-22 | Will Portland Timbers win on 2025-10-22? | 78,069,121 | 78,069,121 |
2421396b95902ada45e9aa561a966e91452ae97f | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x26a1a9918723c9b240a9902810db3cd8b3c5aebd24f60fdd97ed3b1dc53241b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on September 27? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-september-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-vil-bil-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win ... | yes | 1 | richest-person-on-october-31 | Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? | 78,471,548 | 78,471,548 |
84b80c4a3fe26a01330be79446e9311d6b299efb | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0xd7bcd5f62ba835b641dc35add63976f588d134cb125101829407961fb9483610 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-vil-bil-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mad-rea-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-27? | Event: mex-ame-pum-2025-0... | yes | 1 | 2nd-largest-company-end-of-october-731 | Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31? | 78,605,371 | 78,605,371 |
608f693622079de6515e3cd3da44c4b26723ee20 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x6a8c775d3a7ab901a5c4595dbc33478d654dc3b293be2b80fd64500cabbfcc37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-27? | Event: lal-mad-rea-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-27? | Event: mex-ame-pum-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union Berlin vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? | Event: bun... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-october | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | 79,601,524 | 79,601,524 |
a83c2397e677bf0fe786210d351f2ef399597164 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0xf9915c09cfdb45b8ba1335620c1da05d12913ad1d43bbb15832a93609212c27e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2025-09-27? | Event: mex-ame-pum-2025-09-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union Berlin vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? | Event: bun-uni-hsv-2025-09-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Parma win on 2025-09-29? | Event: sea-par-t... | yes | 1 | super-bowl-champion-2026-731 | Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? | 79,601,524 | 79,601,524 |
3e958706d83d277b2d8b55f7efac5a674751524d | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x251ba4af52bd4a37ad295a31df9396ec86791333ca2feb2c794841bb75f161d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Union Berlin vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? | Event: bun-uni-hsv-2025-09-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Parma win on 2025-09-29? | Event: sea-par-tor-2025-09-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-28? | Event: epl-new-ars-2025-0... | yes | 1 | epl-lee-tot-2025-10-04 | Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-04? | 79,601,525 | 79,601,525 |
fb5b19c46223c2802ef511f794daf7e2d23dd0a0 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x4c9ccd1404d105968de9b1ff3226fbafdc0b6e402a26bbcad3a84a1b62296783 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Parma win on 2025-09-29? | Event: sea-par-tor-2025-09-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-28? | Event: epl-new-ars-2025-09-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-wes-2025-09-29 | Ch... | yes | 1 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | 79,601,525 | 79,601,525 |
cffd62a78a58986d1ebc85d8a53c5b4caaaa8f99 | 0x11f791112e23fa0ec6512dbed41c47c44f654982 | 0x6451ea7d451b3c3f8aa7148e07964597475ba009604a5b228c74ef335bc5abad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-28? | Event: epl-new-ars-2025-09-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton vs. West Ham end in a draw? | Event: epl-eve-wes-2025-09-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-09-29? | Event: epl-eve-wes-2025-09-29 |... | yes | 1 | arg-cac-uni-2025-10-10 | Will CA Unión win on 2025-10-10? | 79,601,525 | 79,601,525 |
ccb146ce88e9312c575365b50e1698db96fd9e11 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x5916b06ac023a9fd380b05d469d508d0ad722aae7ab9c5f3efc7aefa2e8fd39f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?
Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | 67,128,694 | 67,128,694 |
0f1ff54c8170368c90fcdbe6cc1f9795ac3a7125 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xaf68cea93b8262e6e5778dc4ed8623baf288487d371ff418ed09383b98bbb6f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?
Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense
Predict th... | yes | 1 | of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | 67,128,694 | 67,128,694 |
a2c8af231e67cf6445e74063b6160c115976041d | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x2a6af3b2b2cc73fa7cf62986800827f93f98b7a2fe018737fe0cbea4ad391880 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-dnc-chair | Will Ken Martin be the next DNC chair? | 67,471,568 | 67,471,568 |
4274df77f236730d9c97e9b057e22017ace809fd | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xb5d749343ea29ccb569b693b1f481d1bf1cb0259343ff6bab1c92aebe4e24288 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | grammys-best-country-song | Will "A Bar Song (Tipsy)" by Shaboozey win Best Country Song? | 67,471,573 | 67,471,573 |
db6c46f9b364f73c63e9117009bfcce7b6971653 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x8539d07b7429b8b911c2bcbfc9bdb0b39f839196d8726029d93f618d74f66252 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-dnc-chair | Will Ben Wikler be the next DNC chair? | 67,471,577 | 67,471,577 |
0b1e5978b68748a4ea236c84e0d8100fad89acec | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x295170f503bf0fa77277382ccb73401470177f97625facbdfcd24116343b5bac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | grammys-record-of-the-year | Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year? | 67,512,548 | 67,512,548 |
f23f31429e6453519acbcdb2657ac0a6e63b70c3 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x2a7e88ed5a70c8cc43eb2a440f549202baf4e59a30cc694b0c12655783c6de16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | grammys-best-country-album | Will 'Higher' win Best Country Album? | 67,512,548 | 67,512,548 |
b30e66380c65cfcf542a86c8cba88ac0677dedc6 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x4b4d70030f24d4eae335226191ac7fbfd93f1a45f0b1b57b639015b14625b54d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | grammys-album-of-the-year-2025 | Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year? | 67,512,548 | 67,512,548 |
0a22665164d8296f969305024cb62876a0b46c81 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x7c823d6f91fdb32faf7f84c9e4ca824e4a53e2e56aed8dd2fc3460f887fc3eaa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | grammys-song-of-the-year-2025 | Will 'Not Like Us' win Song of the Year? | 67,512,548 | 67,512,548 |
666ba11e73d4ffd7cea14efcf0f56200b5851b2f | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xa39da3f71125d590dd4fb55b2df552be7d129252224cb2c33c7dc69b58c56f66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | grammys-song-of-the-year-2025 | Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year? | 67,512,548 | 67,512,548 |
14ec03f66d9eaa5b2383b74b9b3dc478de12d05b | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xc943dd2ab74fec5f2eb7ade47393ba76dfba09c749e7ad1caa9e097005d1ed40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | grammys-best-rap-album | Will 'The Death Of Slim Shady (Coup De Grǎce)' win Best Rap Album? | 67,512,548 | 67,512,548 |
ae78bb779312c118ce8f158087c3e760877d5c24 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xd8f6d67870fe6562a45b419587bce08cd761a3fa171e7d932c6c5f71857a05e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | grammys-album-of-the-year-2025 | Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year? | 67,512,548 | 67,512,548 |
f27d9a7f5e46c99438f897003f0591e78699ba06 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xe9457843bee925935748507cc4ec194b9c7b418114b71dde310617ea69210566 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | grammys-record-of-the-year | Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year? | 67,512,548 | 67,512,548 |
fb09aa018ccc02e54e41cf659f091145181d032b | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x21dd2645311b12c70bb1ebebc120c7ae3dc84f525cc8344cd5a1f4832386068b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | critics-choice-best-cinematography | Will 'Nosferatu' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | 67,690,607 | 67,690,607 |
e113e1a5963848c415bbdc7e5a8b249cd1543b1c | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x360fbda919c2cf7f230457c6d46e0ab0d67b115536aca01f7ff666f4237365be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | critics-choice-best-actress | Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | 67,690,607 | 67,690,607 |
275ebd127ad50737e10c06413738aa59597e1004 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x4a0a1c8d14bedfb3aff6703cbc6645cc6c06f8de56284675c61acfc207ba18c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | critics-choice-best-actress | Will Demi Moore win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | 67,690,607 | 67,690,607 |
435d8f1cb2ce0fbfcb68079e9f1c2697059d8cb6 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x72168f8c8e9bc07cea32b98a016e5b810944ca763acf0c6a1c888630ffa6a655 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | critics-choice-best-foreign-language-film | Will 'All We Imagine as Light' win Best Foreign Language Film in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | 67,690,607 | 67,690,607 |
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