sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
f5174ac0e1f96bdb0e21eb3394a9f5157fae89e2 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xd39dc1d75598addf9d87cdebbc8bcf95c4dcc9f3d8bf9fc82e04123dbc06fe64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | critics-choice-best-supporting-actress | Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | 67,690,607 | 67,690,607 |
bb73c71d7615db59c758f951a46c9e4187c3e68b | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xe8cca032342ce7259e3eaef962c870a4825300b8eef99b5712a56a21cb457ea0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | critics-choice-best-cinematography | Will 'Nickel Boys' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | 67,690,607 | 67,690,607 |
685453ed3af3fa3f1b3292401617123d1e49de1d | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xf36cb2a893f724e1cb2a329ff7bd320d596ac0356ef1bc64efc16e46b30fc15a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | critics-choice-best-foreign-language-film | Will 'Emilia Pérez' win Best Foreign Language Film in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | 67,690,607 | 67,690,607 |
00ddf95854e253b5052ced7dea5b80456d2b07b5 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xb07dfa07725b6470b89f73c69d382118785c7592e830613b1f1f5797802b9f42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | which-companies-will-run-ads-during-super-bowl-lix | Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? | 67,775,822 | 67,775,822 |
a62c28574c51646913f4aa59b9f98e2631110e7f | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x0d99a646d41330af178978ab61de7724e033beea37a2337a1cc6e30cdb2f6cc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence? | 67,893,970 | 67,893,970 |
6551ba5aa00fcab81bfed620c592a0b22a777fa5 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xa50ce519612fd1d27eae5e8d4c0e15a08f5915828a1253b77e45965383c41155 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Will 51 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence? | 67,893,970 | 67,893,970 |
747c272a46aeb303e914eb55fce6f969ff1c1e23 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xc93d1340579f8f992acb8233be8c8544baa6d9268f118112752b30c18cf78284 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Will 50 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence? | 67,893,970 | 67,893,970 |
86d712458ae2e7513b895aeb7f97bff664e13867 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xf160cc74bcf80832c1b93e0124efa6c2395c02b37e805f6c4b1867c460f333ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-rfk-as-secretary-of-hhs | Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? | 67,893,970 | 67,893,970 |
ef1f6508218e5e169eab9d090c1f5c94e4d57afd | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x95ce9a2ae8d256a33ddc49f5412c5865b5bb4083b4b55c673b633071535ba08d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-tulsi-gabbard | Will 53 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence? | 67,893,971 | 67,893,971 |
2fac0a0bfe3d204b91413422ceb8fdec18d76d3a | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x9e12f6b3590c2ff367948f9ec83754e4bb8aa7159d80c772ff116111d99a5cd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-rfk-as-secretary-of-hhs | Will 51 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? | 67,893,971 | 67,893,971 |
a4274795f5e67e917e1387e95ceb86d2c387ffe0 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xf0ebfd35a5f35da9b652178ecb7747cc6f3de550edaff3b660469bc8d6791910 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | which-companies-will-run-ads-during-super-bowl-lix | Will Toyota run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? | 67,893,971 | 67,893,971 |
cd4ee65a44dadcc4c98b5a3dd9298b440533a6d4 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x027331385076d54c1f92824de01608e6bc51e2d5f820f23868654c64ef3e2f83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | bafta-award-best-director | Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Anora"? | 68,090,412 | 68,090,412 |
ef30b290f1add0f9941e2298527afcbc7c0d17a2 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x3c16c772b3ad2309a51f853cb928e56d31d8ab512fb0cd22236973c530507656 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | bafta-award-best-director | Will Edward Berger win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Conclave"? | 68,090,412 | 68,090,412 |
4c5e62558ecc4dadf09d31df62b2f95ef3fa36bc | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x5d78ea3f13935f9af8c62486a6430387f8e892f05d224fcd34523d098737623b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | bafta-award-best-actress | Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Substance"? | 68,090,412 | 68,090,412 |
2efda6503059f823d09054356930f6e78b4b064e | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x681093e9cdad41b9126a09808832166f19d1ea786550963c4cac9c0bc7fe0a95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? | Event: of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ken Martin be the next DNC chair? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-dnc-chair | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "A Bar... | yes | 1 | bafta-award-best-film | Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards? | 68,090,412 | 68,090,412 |
f3000dd1fb25d1eb639f4654b853d08e0aceff57 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x769898cb3a35fedce72b88e4bad68f91cf814c2ebd90392e3b847cd0735c0348 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ken Martin be the next DNC chair? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-dnc-chair | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "A Bar Song (Tipsy)" by Shaboozey win Best Country Song? | Event: grammys-best-country-song | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Wikler be the next... | yes | 1 | bafta-award-best-actor | Will Ralph Finnes win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Conclave"? | 68,090,412 | 68,090,412 |
8ecf595ed790ef6f8f5e01aaca53e72beb141f88 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xd6bbed0a78db8f1a905fa05cbe612df69fc908c28620075d08598ae477cbc2de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "A Bar Song (Tipsy)" by Shaboozey win Best Country Song? | Event: grammys-best-country-song | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ben Wikler be the next DNC chair? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-dnc-chair | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Not Like Us' win Reco... | yes | 1 | bafta-award-best-actor | Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Brutalist"? | 68,090,412 | 68,090,412 |
355a911085a292e9e51fc6c51aaa1b51da6fb0cc | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x464ee3b9f18088deaf9959511bd722a61c0d18a926c4c02a6527e86e0c2e1451 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ben Wikler be the next DNC chair? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-dnc-chair | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Higher' win Best Country Album? | Event... | yes | 1 | sag-award-best-supporting-actor | Will Jeremy Strong win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "The Apprentice"? | 68,312,082 | 68,312,082 |
be66d4e10c35e364d93aac4ec29822647a43307c | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x5e28a160a33fbac660c4e66ce22735b78b0d81840c0645d7d7276aba35762416 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Higher' win Best Country Album? | Event: grammys-best-country-album | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year? | Even... | yes | 1 | sag-award-best-supporting-actress | Will Zoe Saldaña win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 SAG Award for "Emilia Pérez"? | 68,312,082 | 68,312,082 |
9d5057157abf7dd785a2ec96b8abd1e0e7654b2c | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x81f4b736ddff70a6fec27f1e3bff4f78359f01c83233bde0929a03a62bf84243 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Higher' win Best Country Album? | Event: grammys-best-country-album | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year? | Event: grammys-album-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Not Like Us' win Song of the Year? | Ev... | yes | 1 | sag-award-best-actor | Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "The Brutalist"? | 68,312,082 | 68,312,082 |
90ea3080b6c105cbb41ed3bbbb858f4da141fb13 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x9d360db1420668e5d764b4e3b9f4be9af9f9e991e980f11561b566fe34ccfcf2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year? | Event: grammys-album-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Not Like Us' win Song of the Year? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of t... | yes | 1 | sag-award-best-actress | Will Mikey Madison win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "Anora"? | 68,312,082 | 68,312,082 |
30b84073f1a8ff3735fc7346f2ba13e0c938c7c5 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xd7fa81e32f860e7553e8ea203a4801378ecd022316e03eeb70bb5c7ef17515f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Not Like Us' win Song of the Year? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'The Death Of Slim Shady (Coup ... | yes | 1 | sag-award-best-actress | Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "Wicked"? | 68,312,082 | 68,312,082 |
1d72ca11cf66f03fefa33476e05f1a53bbaa1f17 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x1203ef27797a3b8b94e0c7e27ac99f68dbf80d254822c408433e2a7f67defc00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year? | Event: grammys-song-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'The Death Of Slim Shady (Coup De Grǎce)' win Best Rap Album? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Hit Me Hard... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-original-screenplay | Will "A Real Pain" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,661,074 | 68,661,074 |
1354261f44a4935cad5913b929944abbbc49cbc6 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x2caed8b4d41efbe49d78410baddf8188fa234a99230392f93e0ab4c6b3722511 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'The Death Of Slim Shady (Coup De Grǎce)' win Best Rap Album? | Event: grammys-best-rap-album | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year? | Event: grammys-album-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Espress... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-director | Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Anora"? | 68,661,074 | 68,661,074 |
71d5c4ac6095b4f8430dfc13ba446ae80251c226 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x84be5518b2984622edd2f6ddb4ef1adbae60a8fae7ce7434729ebafd6073e228 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year? | Event: grammys-album-of-the-year-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' win Best Cinematogr... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-documentary-short-film | Will "The Only Girl in the Orchestra" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,661,074 | 68,661,074 |
09ddb1537408c83c6f1412cad4fc9892c6910930 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0x9a84c17f1f613a1348471792300bfc4906267ae994a3e0889f205c4fdcac4daa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year? | Event: grammys-record-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-cinematography | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will M... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-sound | Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,661,074 | 68,661,074 |
d852f89a225bc642d9067c256fcd6e700d377225 | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xb8c71861bf1908817c94e84cf5eea6f51fe913860fd2243cd80af9ee5abbd1bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-cinematography | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-actress | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-makeup-and-hairstyling | Will "Wicked" win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,661,074 | 68,661,074 |
8ae26b822b96322c0c5bfd6565cca298487993ca | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xd7b0c49cabacd3e420efa1d02e0866847573156290ae61fe9c24e7ae9238de19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Demi Moore win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 0.938242 | oscars-best-director | Will Brady Corbet win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "The Brutalist"? | 68,661,074 | 68,661,074 |
dcaa76320db58f94e3dde54ce87a5f54cc9ed95a | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xda7eb9bc4dbe9b8324785e5590c0cc30f8785e1a76a43a3a06bc171f96d62524 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Demi Moore win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'All We Imagine as Light' win Best Foreign Language Film in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-foreign-languag... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-picture | Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,661,074 | 68,661,074 |
fb5d3ceacd958b0081eafb06b7977d4145dc742e | 0x11fcd16717d7c64f7bc776720266ebeaf77af8c4 | 0xf80349b472bf3ba05e7d12a2aa0f66b374978c267fa38c9d659cc3cca948115d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'All We Imagine as Light' win Best Foreign Language Film in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics-choice-best-foreign-language-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards? | Event: critics... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-film-editing | Will "Anora" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,661,074 | 68,661,074 |
8943da2428f9c6228e9310ed36b860bd2ee5faa0 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x320c41c1adfebdfadda5c8b3a4fe95fff01dfa088243060b432927cca1ddfece | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | 70,075,199 | 70,075,199 |
4705bb7c8eb64fe856278b2f0249e6003d973d9d | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x244c75b2c6095b2e67699c10d0c6548d757d58a1ffea32ad6882c9a389803bd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada
Predict the user's ... | yes | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 71,008,524 | 71,008,524 |
aed8422a1558a82e7f05a96c8190cf5e1a4a7e37 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x4d2ef73506b82c190f3d47ed7e3e7b02a375b454e11bb931699b8ba93cdb0db2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | uel-tot-mun-2025-05-21 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-21? | 71,853,531 | 71,853,531 |
401977c207390006dd26ca66a83d2691223d1bf7 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x0da99bc139341574ebdb4a54842929a78ae39d880d0258dd290b5ecffe31b379 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Will Inter win on 2025-05-31? | 72,220,182 | 72,220,182 |
c325fbb0f7c52dd43ae9b524e51b1253553ba1fa | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x1c3b536803c69bc10126f2381bc0944f29b7e3b38014bbd134365fc60df32528 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-liv-2025-05-19 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-19? | 72,220,182 | 72,220,182 |
0e3d5112652c8489bbbd810ea4a243ec3c5c8b7e | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xdc630bc536394d14c9f744018b9927692ba4323e88fb2e08ff2b6f184ffd1609 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-bou-2025-05-20 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-05-20? | 72,220,182 | 72,220,182 |
7cf9b790930c95dfdb99efe03c4213f4c2acb056 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x6aad1191441e0b80c58de5964d6ac5e9d1ef4abf812e856e899d313ecda6fece | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-27 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78–79°F on May 27? | 72,220,183 | 72,220,183 |
fd994ef9410f1ec99dcbb8231c3caa725446ead7 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x6b8e187807c5ff2efd63058157d0820fffa26ba91eac202911c1f7e348f8f826 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or below on May 29? | 72,220,183 | 72,220,183 |
2f3c5f8eb4d58f1c7e521060b25568a8fe819aa5 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x99fb1fb1f52cd16d28510100af51c1a0a2384e9b1a873af3f94f796a308cdcfc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-20 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67–68°F on May 20? | 72,220,183 | 72,220,183 |
2da978de8457633b7d2694e1340f992796901ce3 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x473ae62aa4e4ea4b4abc0ef8a4f1f8adfb5643b1958da78bec07322590f78f16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62–63°F on May 19? | 72,220,184 | 72,220,184 |
032c62c8612a83706d738cca3ec19dd5f6379ed3 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xc53152beb140acd3e9845432d82f350258f48d7a70078da066f972382372c7e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | epl-not-che-2025-05-25 | Will Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 72,220,184 | 72,220,184 |
63ed6d7ccf342539c65cc1768e8e8e160b88f470 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xd348eb6fba9dc40050ba12112747e0c9a500d98fad3795d2527f083ee088e5e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | epl-not-che-2025-05-25 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-05-25? | 72,220,184 | 72,220,184 |
eeb36e5a77e158a8299432bae86b08c4c32a7312 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xe57815731f2b72e4e4d8cf91f3330b383f176cf193407f1acbe159902e306308 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 23? | 72,220,185 | 72,220,185 |
4023edde49084920d2082dda36f151fafc0bf400 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xf79b2a8919cef0441526e181621ffbf36af8564db1d08e892c9f021ab163414a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 65–66°F on May 23? | 72,220,185 | 72,220,185 |
37d3f4eaf5f274557d7f39c8a6aee83817368443 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x46eb660c83401ac24632e593b70bf92822f18d8fcde6439eab80843c289ea7c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | knicks | 1 | nba-nyk-ind-2025-05-31 | Knicks vs. Pacers | 72,607,952 | 72,607,952 |
dc4b8286fa7cda79d3472de36669e1c4ff092dbe | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xf2057c0f4a02d14c24dbb74655c6cc501db15867b7e68a7bf584bf26b866137c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-7 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on June 7? | 72,607,952 | 72,607,952 |
167fd93b6b358ef726d57d61c37fe9d56375d513 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x37b30ca484d508d3b992a88ceee19f70869955f19d1686b8d2ced7993384676e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-7 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or higher on June 7? | 72,607,953 | 72,607,953 |
8dd0704f4a886ffa140a1e273cc2310638875c9e | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x4f069571057fb17e00460bc585348c73cb6ecc67a1afeaeee6720a7ef92c19d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 1? | 72,607,954 | 72,607,954 |
003da8883fb6bddee907f83f8e48dca7f42e073a | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x875de7d77f38a34fa4f9b5b0356205aad6cdd159707ac02fb7612d7d7356ecd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-1 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on June 1? | 72,607,954 | 72,607,954 |
1d55ef737b34635785b1852b1b99aa6b72977185 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xe09026ab1c5bcfcca2faee98f7eb8021da6e42fbc5613bf853b46a2d0e9b4c97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | down | 0.000292 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-1-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1 AM ET | 72,665,215 | 72,665,549 |
568689fd1d788021e89c8d3edccb2750b1601867 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x70c31faba6fc478f8e5feb22f7a56315955a74fa7e995ff7483edf80ca616cc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-11-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | 72,668,354 | 72,668,355 |
a1f93ddcf75b86ef0a36da2ee4e84cb949bd853b | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x83c4a96ce11e91d29a589ffb3c7dadef6d714301e6e2ddf08262292fd701e07d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-june-12-5-am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5 AM ET | 72,672,658 | 72,672,658 |
7b618a6b12b3f51ee0d3b00c862fabc29fa1c4fc | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xb9f0e833ed6930270caab84ce18c322aeceb422e9b27a05d8e0ac225dbc3a8f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on June 12? | 72,686,290 | 72,686,290 |
023eaca1140b9ce8ba0ce5f666af1d8101f32aa8 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x629524372d4d4306feb811b6b7098050f1c33323f625763b55567783f0b956e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-11 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 11? | 72,686,500 | 72,686,500 |
ffece613b5261019ce40cfb0b21a3793d759cdfe | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x5da2d722e661feb0c249dde9d39a8608cdb95d1ab917fedb5f71dd5185b85ab1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | up | 0.000038 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-6-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6 AM ET | 72,713,442 | 72,714,842 |
44dc748d3621a21f8b9af3e948728d0a072d6800 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xa4367fd7921fe1545845e54bde5044c71d18843e5e62ad8bd405f06d51d495aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | panthers | 1 | nhl-edm-fla-2025-06-12 | Oilers vs. Panthers | 72,715,100 | 72,715,100 |
5bd3fdf84a75d3bdaced89654bb4b2007831b129 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xe988e086a8ae1e6638017cd707e4a3b3605489eac0148be57606944f52ee81ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-7-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7 AM ET | 72,715,536 | 72,749,112 |
37d72fc7dd002e6ea04e6c04cd53e72e614e9a7b | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x39de3563371d38a50f974d609642c3f323b99cb3b52f7d3f65a53543ad1a2b43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | down | 0.000068 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-3-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3 PM ET | 72,729,280 | 72,729,926 |
9c4b4217d1b95a71f229ba7244f523b2469a1eb8 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x556d4d1f3d4241089db81529d00ed85207ba2ec7896b56565e6767404f5ad5b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | up | 0.000045 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-6-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6 PM ET | 72,733,558 | 72,734,782 |
fcc4f707927f40bbce083ecd56a85fe09f682cda | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x06a8dbab26e39ab34b1314828bc9e9929de0f1d2a4cbc3c9700c78c815da6630 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | marlins | 0 | mlb-mia-wsh-2025-06-13 | Marlins vs. Nationals | 72,735,362 | 72,749,112 |
7025fdcce293031f60c27a3b20b7777fde8f432c | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xbe37ebda5970d8c47973e8ea5482933ae847d6f8dacbeb4a5ec7a39aa626b085 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | blue jays | 0 | mlb-tor-phi-2025-06-13 | Blue Jays vs. Phillies | 72,736,967 | 72,747,965 |
039adf8ef5e937b24f4366dbf118dc11982dbdd3 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x15ab3c896e2747f08849f257d976188f278df352626b4da94293be2d926073f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-21? | Event: uel-tot-mun-2025-05-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-05-31? | Event: u... | up | 0.000036 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-1-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1 AM ET | 72,746,693 | 72,746,715 |
4069eaf42e92d5f9c02273af5929e57beda103cc | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x3e9c7e04731333f7e10d8197b5c946d5172e552307b85c5a56af473f5618ff3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-21? | Event: uel-tot-mun-2025-05-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-05-31? | Event: ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-19? | Event: epl-bri-liv-2025-05-19 | Choice:... | up | 0.000058 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-3-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3 PM ET | 72,769,821 | 72,769,821 |
5bdc05dc7c33da6995f4978fe0daef2f99e54762 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x446ee2080911aeac68757515c6cbdcf7c2c3945b79a6c70ba871f94003346124 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-05-31? | Event: ucl-psg-int-2025-05-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-19? | Event: epl-bri-liv-2025-05-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-05-20? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-05-20 | Choic... | diamondbacks | 0 | mlb-sd-ari-2025-06-14 | Padres vs. Diamondbacks | 72,777,702 | 72,777,702 |
6bf98a94fa4d8b9db4c627623362a6b349bb36b0 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x3eb9e3808163482f51b7630c2fad3652e0b6cff5a20641508463836968a5d806 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-19? | Event: epl-bri-liv-2025-05-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-05-20? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-05-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78–79°F on M... | oilers | 0 | nhl-fla-edm-2025-06-14 | Panthers vs. Oilers | 72,778,561 | 72,827,100 |
8e4cea900b23cdb84dca19f4270105eb8a148c63 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x7e1b029a1b6b1c7e3fa052282ebca99665169717536a9a11f06a69957dc7c9ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-05-20? | Event: epl-mac-bou-2025-05-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78–79°F on May 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the high... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-15-11-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11 PM ET | 72,823,491 | 72,906,465 |
fbb0c95df94e92974ba03f0baef5992870f898b5 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x87cac029536b9cd7307e20a6c8591b62b70f7bc1e904ce6dff956e1212cf465e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78–79°F on May 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or below on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-16-12-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12 AM ET | 72,825,002 | 72,906,465 |
f8e7b26ea5345e4206937e0036334a1aa651ae97 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x74ef0f5cdfc2f849b1082c3e5e6a24f461776b17720841d2e0d848d31954ca28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or below on May 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-29-829 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67–68°F on May 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-20 | ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-june-16-12-am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12 AM ET | 72,825,629 | 72,906,465 |
ce11b894da0fdfc456a8a23a3e09d8061b2b515e | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x713e5bf51fc5048b21c90934941bfc5e9a4ca894abe1f0b9982a3a7316a64cf7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67–68°F on May 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62–63°F on May 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-19 | Choice... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-16-1-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1 AM ET | 72,826,923 | 72,906,465 |
d2db9eb922c7155888b1955d16ba29377dd0a2f7 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x64d25114734cd56381ebb3eee1db9296aec7bcf659fcf37dd77f757c8f4db1ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62–63°F on May 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-che-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-16-3-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3 AM ET | 72,829,783 | 72,906,465 |
f36d77f90685de825b2d15bd158ae19058aefca8 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x83a9d4159dc7fe40c8d6200c5c1097f434f992b2651301f2e5f04d346a3ea588 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-che-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-not-che-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be betwe... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-lafc | Will Chelsea vs. LAFC end in a draw? | 72,906,465 | 72,906,465 |
2416ae8d35e15449a2b4cc68c0d7b991477be908 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xc477980c9e97f41c171d9e30228539f704130ddbe7b9d3d5ff2859d217b7bdb8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-not-che-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-lafc | Will LAFC beat Chelsea? | 72,906,465 | 72,906,465 |
1ce69a850b8cd1365deebe534f545af29451dfb5 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x023632ad138c540b67abe20149c4434a77f0b087c6ed3ad0edf59d9c6518e73a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 65–66°F on May 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-23 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-18-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on June 18 at 5 PM ET? | 73,020,474 | 73,020,474 |
95f9c168336f794b68ae650659c039f689c155c7 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x49ae68d1a3866ce2f0f4246c5c59050b3f8c2b8bd45b0e1b086a3e323d080990 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 65–66°F on May 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Knicks vs. Pacers | Event: nba-nyk-ind-2025-05-31 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in ... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-flamengo-vs-chelsea | Will Flamengo vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 73,020,474 | 73,020,474 |
dd875c0f06ca548a7a27369d086b1d892774cd84 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x51ecb20f7b9fb366400c52c88bdf9870616c91a524bec92e1c9aeb4cd5a4cf3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Knicks vs. Pacers | Event: nba-nyk-ind-2025-05-31 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on June 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-flamengo-vs-chelsea | Will Chelsea beat Flamengo? | 73,020,474 | 73,020,474 |
32d8bc7c0996b79f9c65105cb8814d9038a2aea6 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x657758a013fdb2fb66b9b5ffad47b3bdd15974a0ad94080e0b4de751297a86b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on June 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or higher on June 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-7 | Cho... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-auckland-city | Will Benfica vs. Auckland City end in a draw? | 73,020,474 | 73,020,474 |
5d5c15698d203b8d6275a52bd1e20a9635cecd8b | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xee6e97f822d3ef588288fa163b03bc4c10080fb918b112adff68db1ffcb16097 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or higher on June 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-1 | Cho... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-real-madrid-vs-al-hilal | Will Real Madrid beat Al Hilal? | 73,020,474 | 73,020,474 |
7a8f4e6d8206c6b02e88f1d3bf5ea468c1f9e56c | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xa5bb0eddab88676efa57588ec54a0f88a699154895cd932a909a0207d95ec326 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on June 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-1 | Choice... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-18-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 18 at 5 PM ET? | 73,020,475 | 73,020,475 |
3593b81aa284db28738603ea08f85a1f6fb4182d | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xb90fdec92895ec53f02e03007f3dc9f9683cc9ff0309d02a5c5f7ec203e2b8c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on June 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-1-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00029236427230409... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-bayern-munich-vs-boca-juniors | Will Bayern Munich vs. Boca Juniors end in a draw? | 73,033,143 | 73,033,143 |
dd6c564c87044f365207dd691b8801c76637c0a2 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x277db64a565ac8fb54ceca3681bf5bbeb97c741365f7d4d18161bf73c7275590 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-1-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00029236427230409175
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-11-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-20 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on June 20? | 73,039,962 | 73,039,962 |
cded5e6568ced23e3c3ec9ac1bfa8c3f53ef79ea | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x759e1f009f0eb79d47935996927f70dc19269e46190846b28ad8f2bb69298a5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-11-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5 AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-12-5-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will... | cardinals | 0.00003 | mlb-cin-stl-2025-06-21 | Reds vs. Cardinals | 73,056,400 | 73,056,400 |
39efe8a567183a71f1c95c58dac0c7e71c0eb0fb | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x1f9509624695c654edf7f6e1c3e24d912b2eee895b50bc415b7c3c92f7fc78e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5 AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-12-5-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on June 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-inter-milan-vs-urawa | Will Inter Milan vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? | 73,063,153 | 73,063,153 |
06f7abdda656bf542eefc9c770510fc16ebd15c5 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xabf9dc09dbda8d046db4d6b7b64eb556499a05e609e0e8dd16ddea605cf48337 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on June 12? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-11 | Cho... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-21-322 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 91-92°F on June 21? | 73,065,756 | 73,065,756 |
7d9bc9c8d9f5fd6c4ee33599c39574c7a888d419 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x6602e81d1c6775e81e64067f23862af969f76ae6c050e06ec9b420c8f18002de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-6-am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.8051429023966... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-ulsan | Will Fluminense vs. Ulsan Hyundai end in a draw? | 73,066,982 | 73,066,982 |
45b209edc85d17c69f5b7310d8c8628731fb4912 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xb298d88e4a59a6b2221472956aa7a73ca6710ec71f0039921044995b38152ee7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-6-am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.8051429023966505e-05
2. Question: Oilers vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-edm-fla-2025-06-12 | Choice: panthers | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7 AM ET | Event:... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-monterrey | Will River Plate beat Monterrey? | 73,073,934 | 73,073,934 |
5519ccc47d735f91da2a3c38db5f546ae326219f | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xb3ba6b1592809a8d4b0242649b7aa5ab3b2214ef9f014edc328395320b2a9a4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Oilers vs. Panthers | Event: nhl-edm-fla-2025-06-12 | Choice: panthers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-7-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-do... | liberty | 0 | wnba-nyl-sea-2025-06-22 | Liberty vs Storm | 73,101,329 | 73,101,329 |
e6267b66df5022fb40717f0a339e8950b2318393 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xae29802bce9554e80174d101cca03124d0e23d7c3c312a1b9dbd03075ab0e045 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-7-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-3-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 6.806782805934823e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-al-hilal | Will Al Hilal beat RB Salzburg? | 73,109,414 | 73,109,414 |
21d7a56fbf3ed8bbe9ba7c51e13d2bc804886403 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x346e6e2e39126f02200a0382383d307d5e0fea2f4d3dacca27ac1d0d431deb41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-3-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 6.806782805934823e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-6-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.4515259682749984e-05
3. Question: Ma... | yes | 1 | nba-finals-g7-rebounds-leader | Will Isaiah Hartenstein record the most rebounds in Game 7 of the NBA Finals? | 73,136,217 | 73,136,217 |
6fda2dce460c924b7d203b8243395ed46353fa99 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x65b863fdc8ee9a04b02c529c0a69a438d91c2d378d452b0d15e675ff4e12612a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-6-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.4515259682749984e-05
2. Question: Marlins vs. Nationals | Event: mlb-mia-wsh-2025-06-13 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Blue Jays vs. Phillies | Event: mlb-tor-phi-2... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 73,136,217 | 73,136,217 |
8cf571e99852e2b8273a0b1b55facd43a475303f | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x7d951194baff9f5faed146ff77544bbef84e14314b64fc10cd8f768510eefd08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Marlins vs. Nationals | Event: mlb-mia-wsh-2025-06-13 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Blue Jays vs. Phillies | Event: mlb-tor-phi-2025-06-13 | Choice: blue jays | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-1-am-et | ... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 73,136,217 | 73,136,217 |
229036f00651125bdec8895ffe41df62bc1ab88e | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x9b58f5e56e549060d86719911570cb84e5cdd9c883c5ad51daf7ca77f493799e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blue Jays vs. Phillies | Event: mlb-tor-phi-2025-06-13 | Choice: blue jays | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-1-am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.605657641173746e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3 PM ET | Eve... | yes | 1 | concacaf-gold-cup-mexico-vs-costa-rica | Will Mexico beat Costa Rica? | 73,136,217 | 73,136,217 |
a87bc0306d277aa2c8da118b88c0b74074d6eb88 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x9d8debf9203c6da07e77218d91fe8d4213c8d68d4c2864a9639b70572f49c76b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-1-am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.605657641173746e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-3-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.756998077856015e-05
3. Question: Padre... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Will Chet Holmgren Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | 73,136,217 | 73,136,217 |
b1366f89fa7a8840900c6e973843ed48602af37f | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xff4393901efdd2b1db207e2cf3282d76b6afa3ea463c94f03a13deb72878b1fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-3-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.756998077856015e-05
2. Question: Padres vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sd-ari-2025-06-14 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Panthers vs. Oilers | Event: nhl-fla-edm... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-atltico-madrid-vs-botafogo | Will Atlético Madrid vs. Botafogo end in a draw? | 73,143,786 | 73,143,786 |
4dfff132d90179a472993567ea4733724e2a00c4 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xc0e2be853273920befb2c6f33743e79e9502feacf7c2f4d1d049eab25f3e2344 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Padres vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sd-ari-2025-06-14 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Panthers vs. Oilers | Event: nhl-fla-edm-2025-06-14 | Choice: oilers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-15-11-pm-et ... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-palmeiras | Will Inter Miami vs. Palmeiras end in a draw? | 73,157,607 | 73,157,607 |
a8ade07e9053b18a9e5731b3729d158fe636ab7e | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x3dc9e9b25512d67561862dd7d199f6e9e49fd933141afb6ca576df099d27a711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Panthers vs. Oilers | Event: nhl-fla-edm-2025-06-14 | Choice: oilers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-15-11-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-d... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-bayern-munich | Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica? | 73,187,000 | 73,187,000 |
b3702b0e709d0c6ce432c97217e1bd4484eca4ff | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x78e9daf74531b98a3d9c264e0c210219df85c8113614a1bfb59c4a18533a4712 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-15-11-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-16-12-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-bayern-munich | Will Benfica vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw? | 73,187,000 | 73,187,000 |
8c381bc53848487035277206099da1525ddc4830 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xea21e2d49136c3bfcd0024c515759fbd107e25c93d6bc379558c5f4b66d773fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-16-12-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12 AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-16-12-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-mamelodi-vs-fluminense | Will Fluminense beat Mamelodi? | 73,226,159 | 73,226,159 |
343f2330fbbc4db52c7bb87f05b4c71cc51f0539 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x393809fd76f23baa99013f5096a1686c73f0abae436ccb888f58ecedadf2a8aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12 AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-16-12-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-16-1-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3 A... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-wydad-ac-vs-al-ain | Will Wydad AC vs. Al Ain end in a draw? | 73,294,709 | 73,294,709 |
c735b0e030978d981fdf60ce7aaf9dad9da3deac | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xf4f42d62b32f00f9d9ac95066e5353840445b1df74b6fad528c453d247fda2be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-16-1-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-16-3-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea vs. LAFC end in a draw? ... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Will Juventus vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | 73,294,709 | 73,294,709 |
c8dd122e33991820825d83bb839ea1867c3011d0 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xf669b7934aa0d61cd6ad994e2619254d2c5339a2ab61b637d1215fa62c699686 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-16-3-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea vs. LAFC end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-lafc | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LAFC beat Chelsea? | Event: fifa-... | dream | 0 | wnba-min-atl-2025-06-27 | Lynx vs Dream | 73,306,793 | 73,312,313 |
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