sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2da12c62f06a06d8ce198f943ce97f447a32aa5e | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x03a346dd8bb946ce4d3bd17ee3a6d9a9042ee863baeec9c3652e72107f57b60b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea vs. LAFC end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-lafc | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LAFC beat Chelsea? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-lafc | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-june-27-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 27 at 5PM ET? | 73,312,313 | 73,312,313 |
6d20c6eb04931115f3dfc29e66ea33d3e4f3518e | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x3b3da51b518fec62bbfb4798a2973b92858fdb71492aefdc6a99fbae7ec55334 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will LAFC beat Chelsea? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-lafc | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on June 18 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-18-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Flamengo vs. Ch... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-27-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on June 27 at 5PM ET? | 73,312,313 | 73,312,313 |
22fc1ccc772ba789465602dc75000a68fff16309 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xa888e3afb0736da8297d7e9d818af1c888d193770b6abdb60de3fd633880e4df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on June 18 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-18-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Flamengo vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-flamengo-vs-chelsea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | up | 0.000013 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET | 73,357,122 | 73,357,122 |
3941698c9771434d176583d8ce53bdd2459a92c7 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xa3f8dbb3ce7e978f5a344b320e5fd372b9dc2351166d1bbae87e5930c95155d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Flamengo vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-flamengo-vs-chelsea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea beat Flamengo? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-flamengo-vs-chelsea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Benfica vs. Auckland City end i... | up | 0.000037 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4AM ET | 73,358,273 | 73,358,273 |
404288e062fb384b063362ceace4809b546eb324 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xa0f250bf3c3804c54461fda4748945e8f410e139d7b39731409e1a216a6e11b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Flamengo? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-flamengo-vs-chelsea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Benfica vs. Auckland City end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-auckland-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Al H... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET | 73,367,272 | 73,367,292 |
2bb5ab0861b938a621e54d8433d7d9d7e2cb9ade | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x9df583e61ce551a27ab9e096da55dec2c3b697e95c24bf3e5031752e0caac377 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Benfica vs. Auckland City end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-auckland-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Al Hilal? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-real-madrid-vs-al-hilal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-29 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on June 29? | 73,380,352 | 73,380,352 |
237330f4f07d50579a0892fef926a04955da87d4 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xfa0e1f127efeaa7278158bbb21817edf60977088a46ba3685d47274d6928df6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Al Hilal? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-real-madrid-vs-al-hilal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 18 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-18-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern ... | valkyries | 0.000025 | wnba-sea-gsv-2025-06-29 | Storm vs Valkyries | 73,388,068 | 73,388,068 |
d5d1d2ef38a8c0848fa8a57a629647744d545117 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x8968e128f9d6d232b5903be63303348fafcfe19c958edd40213b9ae3613ce770 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 18 at 5 PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-18-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern Munich vs. Boca Juniors end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-bayern-munich-vs-boca-juniors | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1AM ET | 73,434,728 | 73,794,931 |
81b0dae17e87c727c22ccfbf9f0d6289f6918ca5 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x675cadee03baa0f9fe1a140589174b8c2dba729d1f2a74763584f031737b13ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich vs. Boca Juniors end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-bayern-munich-vs-boca-juniors | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on June 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-20 | Choice: yes ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-1-7pm-et | Solana Up or Down - July 1, 7PM ET | 73,464,105 | 73,794,954 |
6908216e88775265b001540075bff57666cae1c6 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x971bb38bc8f25a09edaedf861df07d1e67eb0fe823cd575e7d703d7260e05d28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on June 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-june-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Reds vs. Cardinals | Event: mlb-cin-stl-2025-06-21 | Choice: cardinals | Confidence: 3.002384965230259e-05
3. Question: Will... | fever | 0 | wnba-ind-min-2025-07-01 | Fever vs Lynx | 73,467,602 | 73,794,933 |
1069d188901e12a591d4289c45337e0b82517125 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x4f09f9be09ba2f4dcc857ca9ac576721f6f4bfe8a529b0ccc4a3a0f3dec54ace | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reds vs. Cardinals | Event: mlb-cin-stl-2025-06-21 | Choice: cardinals | Confidence: 3.002384965230259e-05
2. Question: Will Inter Milan vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-inter-milan-vs-urawa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temper... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6AM ET | 73,482,225 | 73,794,934 |
3dcd1ce63d8a56670d58d24f5f5859f1b97e843e | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x63f5b32facbd40182976e7a90beb6d5f78727e97218ec37e3953d28ae10e20e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-inter-milan-vs-urawa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 91-92°F on June 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-21-322 | Choice: yes | Con... | angels | 0 | mlb-laa-atl-2025-07-02 | Angels vs. Braves | 73,505,257 | 73,794,935 |
650376e5c5a0ff21e41326ba94bf4217ad9b88a2 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xc77f9445be8b48d0bd62e770166c49917bc974c9a3064d4c4f09fd2ecfb20852 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 91-92°F on June 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-21-322 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense vs. Ulsan Hyundai end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-ulsan | Choice: yes | Confidence... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8PM ET | 73,506,409 | 73,794,935 |
850eb386f6bbdfcdf243791a5c170751e2a6a9bf | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x99e316c1275ef11551e3eff0dd5ff45cb2d77faa7314821cc8c22448022f63b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fluminense vs. Ulsan Hyundai end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-ulsan | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will River Plate beat Monterrey? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-monterrey | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Liberty vs Storm |... | astros | 0 | mlb-hou-col-2025-07-03 | Astros vs. Rockies | 73,540,253 | 73,794,935 |
944ca8e0f437d3114c64eddedcc91db4bb28ca88 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x1183570376aca967b2a49afb43c1419e62eb2d02b8c9aa0afacd9337f0ad0f51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will River Plate beat Monterrey? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-river-plate-vs-monterrey | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Liberty vs Storm | Event: wnba-nyl-sea-2025-06-22 | Choice: liberty | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Al Hilal beat RB Salzburg? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-r... | up | 0.000059 | solana-up-or-down-july-4-5pm-et | Solana Up or Down - July 4, 5PM ET | 73,582,742 | 73,582,742 |
69046d8c1de52135b9316a66ceaca4f22a48d582 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x50ecfd7aba0efdcfa286b0ded0be96c454d6d342b63f77d9e1c530ed5d9e621c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liberty vs Storm | Event: wnba-nyl-sea-2025-06-22 | Choice: liberty | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Al Hilal beat RB Salzburg? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-al-hilal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Isaiah Hartenstein record the most rebounds in Game 7 of th... | rays | 0.00005 | mlb-tb-min-2025-07-04 | Rays vs. Twins | 73,584,160 | 73,584,160 |
884f215375939428178f772a109cfa8dfa52f91e | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xf18705107da9ac75165d6e0a2f0afcb2b26443bb920f9a4eb71e849331c158f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Hilal beat RB Salzburg? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-rb-salzburg-vs-al-hilal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Isaiah Hartenstein record the most rebounds in Game 7 of the NBA Finals? | Event: nba-finals-g7-rebounds-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | sparks | 0.000027 | wnba-la-ind-2025-07-05 | Sparks vs Fever | 73,628,766 | 73,628,766 |
05e33b8338745c7755a40d0e666008bb2c057b84 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x2ad6488d2849566a60b77e70b17569229be16aba393ed0efb9730009486c36d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Isaiah Hartenstein record the most rebounds in Game 7 of the NBA Finals? | Event: nba-finals-g7-rebounds-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyr... | no | 0 | fluminense-vs-chelsea-3-goals-scored | Fluminense vs. Chelsea: 3+ Goals Scored? | 73,743,919 | 73,743,919 |
6fa12fd8a97ecc0672199d0e9c1cc6f2d5799e5f | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x078f16f9f58d80a6b969b157c417169347ef7f99d08871935e43562738aba42c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mexico beat Costa Rica? | Event: concac... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-6-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on July 6 at 5PM ET? | 73,794,932 | 73,794,932 |
8df230cd704981a94370f245f11e6f784cd3831c | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x11793f1420d4a46db97c2834b7ad2567426044c2f9ba38abe1c0f371a2e0579a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mexico beat Costa Rica? | Event: concacaf-gold-cup-mexico-vs-costa-rica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chet Holmgren Win the 2025 NBA Finals MV... | yes | 1 | fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Will Al Hilal beat Fluminense in regulation time? | 73,794,934 | 73,794,934 |
b4a765f185de93be75ee23ba17b33399f0e3c8ae | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x92604765a10d803c2c8fe1857a6200b6534310af6df62bf52afd0c6ffdb48d86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mexico beat Costa Rica? | Event: concacaf-gold-cup-mexico-vs-costa-rica | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chet Holmgren Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atlético Madrid vs. Botafogo end in a draw? ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on July 2? | 73,794,936 | 73,794,936 |
e2fa188df08782e88f91bb6020fbececea839ace | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xc4dab8b97cf1083456c915a917b0b3c4b0673fe661ae468b874a2ccdb7b7eddd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chet Holmgren Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Event: 2025-nba-finals-mvp | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atlético Madrid vs. Botafogo end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-atltico-madrid-vs-botafogo | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Miami vs. ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-5 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 5? | 73,794,937 | 73,794,937 |
0df22989b291c0c30203606a7e2568cb12a0f65e | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xc6327ed98c1a23e85704e52c527e2597d3d96d4700f897bdd88ccce0b5ebab9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atlético Madrid vs. Botafogo end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-atltico-madrid-vs-botafogo | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Miami vs. Palmeiras end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-palmeiras | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Will Fluminense vs. Al Hilal end in a draw after regulation time? | 73,794,938 | 73,794,938 |
a3880baaf96098d4e35f279b884d34801ecec69e | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xf574c8c890a7a297bb88baaf7630d14072b1cef4a04e260a7d805b4ded0bf531 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Miami vs. Palmeiras end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-palmeiras | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-bayern-munich | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Benfica vs. ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-3-887 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 93-94°F on July 3? | 73,794,938 | 73,794,938 |
f09d5f2f073739e359b8081b351efc3ffbc1559e | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xf2976bd6071d0f4f1affa8bac32aedb435171f5687cc3f0929f7d4aff514c6e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-bayern-munich | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Benfica vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-bayern-munich | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fluminense ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on July 8? | 73,794,954 | 73,794,954 |
18d00f40eacf9d0612638c86cc80b8749c6d6d99 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x5c03e9355069ede5ed4535050d5b6ddbe3a238dcf6b2e3f1fc06148cd18b76ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Benfica vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-bayern-munich | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Mamelodi? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-mamelodi-vs-fluminense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wydad AC vs. Al... | up | 0.000009 | solana-up-or-down-july-10-2am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 10, 2AM ET | 73,800,747 | 73,800,747 |
c7e3d1b41f63750bfd1c36e5be7cbf27861fbcb9 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x0cb2df4b3439f41f70c72daa4af20e0dd3fcbc26dad5a2763885420c876c9d7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fluminense beat Mamelodi? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-mamelodi-vs-fluminense | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wydad AC vs. Al Ain end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-wydad-ac-vs-al-ain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus vs. Manchester Cit... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? | 73,853,411 | 73,853,411 |
1cdf92bee5e9b9eae689fe63698e39c6c3d2f914 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x10364f7ae861a4d7bd66eec0602c7ef2e5042bb8d9d61aea220d6bed190626f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wydad AC vs. Al Ain end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-wydad-ac-vs-al-ain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Lynx vs D... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11? | 73,853,411 | 73,853,411 |
7b1919d51cb3d76af0ed599395ff2d176c1b4739 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x10cd55acfbe1d5dab971dd7cacdd4373be8acf90f25a4b8827178bbc2a79c507 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Lynx vs Dream | Event: wnba-min-atl-2025-06-27 | Choice: dream | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? | 73,853,411 | 73,853,411 |
76374e8d53410c71a512ba5ea1e8a427b0066491 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x3bef8aa79951515c1ab75f9cb3b96d33429c96a65fee7e4a4cc497504c6b915b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Lynx vs Dream | Event: wnba-min-atl-2025-06-27 | Choice: dream | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 27 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-27-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $1... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11? | 73,853,411 | 73,853,411 |
7bc9b60f2be03e9d3d92363ad545eab0a00f1836 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x59ca3ec519ec613ab21528847b983ced964b7c823169eaab8bbc7a8c5195145b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on June 27 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-june-27-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on June 27 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-27-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? | 73,853,411 | 73,853,411 |
30b19b05f1fd5975318d9f6763f44beb4376877e | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x85f7af3d64eacb9586fe8b35275a1767feac4a2ad9c546e4ff00b7e7acacae4a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on June 27 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-27-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-3am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.3072535599950633e-05
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 4–11? | 73,853,411 | 73,853,411 |
21c0e7c1b204a7ab7cc134584a575f444bf35b00 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xa140f5df2dcd4edd9b2d9bbfb8f986fc9ba899cf238d79f90dcab4ae4e245cf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-3am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.3072535599950633e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.6505068469306976e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11? | 73,853,411 | 73,853,411 |
456ce7a3abf2160a3302c63411b53e54ead379fc | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xfd7a8a2480e8ac7ddfa9b5c9023bbb36ff508294baf1e7a4d280a58176b40c48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.6505068469306976e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the highest tempera... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? | 73,853,411 | 73,853,411 |
f202bfcc1c72b331f6a21dfe5c9de1d5a2004258 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x126268ab3bd7d7f3a57dd1c56054e4da8e6b2b7a9c81b63d35eb47e376cf825f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on June 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: St... | dream | 0 | wnba-atl-ind-2025-07-11 | Dream vs Fever | 73,856,782 | 73,856,782 |
6f578c3843e0ecd62f48de147e8101078de9ed3d | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x5904ad63ea83ce2edbda279ee7ddf4857fb16825c5fbaf251493c94683e04f6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on June 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-june-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Storm vs Valkyries | Event: wnba-sea-gsv-2025-06-29 | Choice: valkyries | Confidence: 2.474462734591217e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin... | hornets | 0 | nba-sac-cha-2025-07-20 | Kings vs. Hornets | 74,215,169 | 74,216,156 |
9a8ad2dee3e65d9b0df2c7300f7212e39e90609f | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x42fcb7d6675acd8cd9c220bc1655da7370cc1b4c65ba68c7e1de4eb1e334ce91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Storm vs Valkyries | Event: wnba-sea-gsv-2025-06-29 | Choice: valkyries | Confidence: 2.474462734591217e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 1, 7PM ET | Event: sola... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-16-589 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 16? | 74,301,150 | 74,301,150 |
3a9c919e9c944a63c07ca9763b00087e7a32f960 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x70eee78873281afa571cf269d842254c7f7b8620f83a299a665a83a064042c2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 1, 7PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-1-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Fever vs Lynx | Event: wnba-ind-min-2025-07-01 ... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Will Chelsea win 2-0? | 74,301,150 | 74,301,150 |
05f7fa7892c3703b955e69b7d70d6f16d4d00dff | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x1222adc66f552b595e77073284b07a08e487605bd9894919b1eaaf4da0d7cb31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 1, 7PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-1-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Fever vs Lynx | Event: wnba-ind-min-2025-07-01 | Choice: fever | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-6am-et... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-12 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on July 12? | 74,301,151 | 74,301,151 |
08732405533a51bf012d0207c84daa5916497b21 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x8695ff00906de4be976eb9ed3f1b9aa0f77109a08f541493133d0ca6eece82af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fever vs Lynx | Event: wnba-ind-min-2025-07-01 | Choice: fever | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Angels vs. Braves | Event: mlb-laa-atl-2025-07-02 | Choice: angels | Confid... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on July 19? | 74,301,151 | 74,301,151 |
73a1a15e556921aa5547de59c7d3370b53f2b788 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xea8594bfa34968f90f8776f41e4baf36e18b0fb52c668e20bcab07da88535f22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Angels vs. Braves | Event: mlb-laa-atl-2025-07-02 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-22-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 22 at 5PM ET? | 74,301,151 | 74,301,151 |
9db8ea850b43ff15853fbdde68c29c382aee32c0 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x6485b83642631b95082a3b9c9b3510d21fb622f2224a3e1f10e72a8715f8c26d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Angels vs. Braves | Event: mlb-laa-atl-2025-07-02 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Astros vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-hou-col-2025-07-03 | Choice: astros | C... | liberty | 0 | wnba-phx-nyl-2025-07-25 | Mercury vs Liberty | 74,411,553 | 74,411,553 |
d2c4a1f787d21b218945fe98d971808a08e2c03a | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x051989a70b68341d03e421b8e151bf425b8c9b3f83fadb159ed173ecbd86aa3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-2-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Astros vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-hou-col-2025-07-03 | Choice: astros | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 5PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-5... | valkyries | 0 | wnba-dal-gsv-2025-07-25 | Wings vs Valkyries | 74,416,539 | 74,416,539 |
9c23d7a4e1c52805d6723b093469c7f378c505fd | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xa2eabb5b7db343f3dd45d7073a3199157e3a38c55874c67f29e8bc27366e36ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Astros vs. Rockies | Event: mlb-hou-col-2025-07-03 | Choice: astros | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 5PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-5pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.8612862798210516e-05
3. Question: Rays vs. Twins | Event: mlb-tb-min-2025-07-04 | Choice:... | up | 0.000011 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-27-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 2AM ET | 74,462,274 | 74,462,274 |
52f72801504f4de11b0fe25064235214af501a7c | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x86cb9d3a2e9a16561b10cfccdaf3cecce59e1ce08d7a699e3eb9d44faf5d6137 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 4, 5PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-4-5pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.8612862798210516e-05
2. Question: Rays vs. Twins | Event: mlb-tb-min-2025-07-04 | Choice: rays | Confidence: 4.978542195176836e-05
3. Question: Sparks vs Fever | Event: wnba-la-ind-2025-07... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-25 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 99-100°F on July 25? | 74,611,727 | 74,611,727 |
9de00b938ce08e698c1ecfda08c8f8be3be1abb5 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x1d3b91219abb9f02d5fe118b367d95b7c60e30848a675667d403b62041900ecc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rays vs. Twins | Event: mlb-tb-min-2025-07-04 | Choice: rays | Confidence: 4.978542195176836e-05
2. Question: Sparks vs Fever | Event: wnba-la-ind-2025-07-05 | Choice: sparks | Confidence: 2.6655289476603713e-05
3. Question: Fluminense vs. Chelsea: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: fluminense-vs-chel... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on July 24? | 74,611,730 | 74,611,730 |
3347200f99680ef56cccd1d77a1ab4546d793675 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x31b9e44fd9cb07bbe0542a3dcf5b3406275388567672d04e2a60750b81fc24d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Sparks vs Fever | Event: wnba-la-ind-2025-07-05 | Choice: sparks | Confidence: 2.6655289476603713e-05
2. Question: Fluminense vs. Chelsea: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: fluminense-vs-chelsea-3-goals-scored | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-july-23-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on July 23 at 5PM ET? | 74,611,730 | 74,611,730 |
a04906c5630bca027e985540e365e7450934a7c2 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xdd5d157b435c2b7581c740582549c1690e829b12eaba9842d7dea60123b70e5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fluminense vs. Chelsea: 3+ Goals Scored? | Event: fluminense-vs-chelsea-3-goals-scored | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on July 6 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-6-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Al Hil... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-july-27-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on July 27 at 5PM ET? | 74,611,730 | 74,611,730 |
74c7dfeee688f5c884ece1918d95c35749c781f8 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x10bde7a33c8f7d44a7791ee00d7d1245abcf290267d2dc098248281776168e37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on July 6 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-6-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Al Hilal beat Fluminense in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8 | Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8? | 74,974,477 | 74,974,477 |
6517889a36405cc7bac9bf59debc224531495038 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xfd761f0fdd328238f094422bbbcf136e658345f0dc72d7c28339a320911b42d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Hilal beat Fluminense in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on July 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8 | Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8? | 74,974,477 | 74,974,477 |
777fe8e7dcbe26cf2865af0bedc888d209d1dbd8 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x0c6b762cac337da9d9d6a5fdcec77caf07352da1c32a366ba338e7236121a8c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on July 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-5 | Choice... | astros | 0 | mlb-bal-hou-2025-08-16 | Orioles vs. Astros | 75,298,978 | 75,298,978 |
efe8fc91c018409a17008461abc1169452922d4a | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xdde9b1f3f006d375910da233370efab7c99696e460978fa8c10448906e222639 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense vs. Al Hilal end in a draw after regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: ye... | diamondbacks | 0 | mlb-ari-col-2025-08-16 | Diamondbacks vs. Rockies | 75,299,874 | 75,310,306 |
47fd2e0d87b01be96292e99a22211db9e984a564 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xf521975c67c8947b491fac34d5a9961d91b49ece714a1b717c4b6b61adf91868 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fluminense vs. Al Hilal end in a draw after regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 93-94°F on July 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-3-887 | Choice... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-17-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 3AM ET | 75,307,508 | 75,375,073 |
c95c25fb72091eaf3e2c4c726873993e46ba3078 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x88e9c6e403c2972d47058f7d38e012ce9ab20b990bbed79d83e9b534970fe113 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 93-94°F on July 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-3-887 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on July 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-8 | Ch... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on August 16? | 75,310,303 | 75,310,303 |
cce6f724111188a268d239544c104975462b8cdd | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x8e6c4d4f0374aaff485a4a6f29d2fd5f82a3342b8f74667a6a5b138fe4d5d9e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on July 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 10, 2AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-10-2am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 8.886001152059875e-06
3. ... | mercury | 0.0005 | wnba-phx-sea-2025-08-17 | Mercury vs Storm | 75,335,672 | 75,335,672 |
a082ee37d0becd49ed2a01e6cc301d79bbfd849a | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x78873c3daa46304518c93a7f51f80a0359a384d9f50be6508008b21c2a12a5e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - July 10, 2AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-july-10-2am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 8.886001152059875e-06
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 ... | down | 0.000151 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-18-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 1AM ET | 75,344,465 | 75,344,465 |
c8014cf555580a53c964cee0cfa4f702184d1c04 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0x14d016fbe336c15c3bdc0f89c6e54fb7213bff9314b4dd65921db6bdf79c9736 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11... | yes | 1 | lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-17? | 75,375,073 | 75,375,073 |
fbc5abe6cd035bf05a78b594cd143e3f2c4f09b0 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xa1f6b56275df0bedde52b60b5736e2c324e6e2f080c22d78429bb85322585651 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11? | ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-17 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on August 17? | 75,375,073 | 75,375,073 |
dc5608496f605266f80132cb999fa10264a380a0 | 0x12082135bdeab5384b248951b1fc3caca49f0160 | 0xfa057eb7503598d9e7f750a03eec5478cdfd69766001f4909c3181eab28e1588 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? | ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-17 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on August 17? | 75,375,073 | 75,375,073 |
1d04b74f8da76a10c5b44b1ada2d47713a3e0e95 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xaaa681357a3dfc70f72374d430bfdfc7281bd7f58796b7bc88dc73932f72c461 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18?
Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | 79,152,831 | 79,152,831 |
fe4fe0bedcce6262d7360fc1a698dbb1ee584378 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x4467eba2e8189063013bd1560668f100688fa2c1f38a47ebfb528b3a10e6154b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18?
Event: solana-above-on-november-18
Predict the user's choice and confidence for th... | no | 0 | solana-above-on-november-18 | Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | 79,185,836 | 79,194,027 |
1ede45fa8c9b914157fd38e52e03280e4189f2ff | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x45b77f7840d82287c209d547c524f5fa3691690243e1e3abfb6584ef2c2dd008 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Wi... | no | 0 | solana-above-on-november-19 | Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 19? | 79,186,569 | 79,282,341 |
2e460926504ad00793dd5fb681a9d31094690539 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xca58ecb0e78d1a934e9a3fc22e60c8bc3a54e7bf5e08b6699776c49e36b1e57d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 19? | 79,186,796 | 79,186,796 |
12e4336e761837559195e33f8657c73a7538d857 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xc5644fae5cdb4e6fb78381109cac5b7402c21a65f4e0a04db223ced95d34e570 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 1 | ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 18? | 79,194,482 | 79,194,482 |
f3af4336112e2f7e923b34e04cbb7dc908cc4a9e | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x78d93c209fc6ba3348c8d80698ec35d1cf0b6877c84a44c27f41797b97490ff5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-19 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 19? | 79,194,568 | 79,194,568 |
1bea5007ded0354d2970d2493d89bc4d658d5171 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x971d2fcd67c6fe49a20acd14ed305697f3cf96083d1b9272f9fade8e6101569f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | yes | 0.333333 | bitcoin-above-on-november-20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 20? | 79,241,098 | 79,241,098 |
139f52e89cd0b7aca5337db4c852fcd8ec3224f1 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xb81f5d719338e64ee4a9cf1fac1d42eb997eee6607fc8d5ed731170398026788 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-20 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 20? | 79,241,141 | 79,282,341 |
7d7aa87fab4491e5ae1007ffdd92968aa1a7fc57 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xf510d7a7fb846dd0a78299a0136ddf1216222af2ff3fc609ba305f47197db739 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 20? | 79,246,808 | 79,282,341 |
c4172c2acda61f7d100cc87ca0bb38d88838d4ef | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x362f64e447dd62d1748aa4884ed00491c7aed7ff0066ee1bd3bab9bde4d3ba05 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 20? | 79,271,170 | 79,271,170 |
e3e48f5b32f425e59a18ce2e747769a36a0e46e4 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xe5bed72ae157f8fa6a3ab58232a0f8031b9d0cccabf8706fe64cf11398310cef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-20 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 20? | 79,271,240 | 79,271,240 |
508d6eba1769aed2b8ea920bdffb490f7dcdf15f | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x5034b2645d0399534f59651004b529c320dc5223ad991f28c0d181ed4da8a402 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-21 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 21? | 79,284,360 | 79,306,382 |
5cecc53a208d23697b1fe9684e94dca4870b004c | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x7d4268a40eeee30b98ac5a8c3a84521cb265c6aa4c61b69102c33afa69f03295 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 21? | 79,286,088 | 79,305,575 |
1494d300e5988f8448daa71f60649d2ee88d5d50 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xbfaa5c257c2ac7112d8e196d04d2c8a8333c86f54f308089f9bc864e93d604ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-21 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 21? | 79,289,081 | 79,497,855 |
264df39d7e9d5b4c350fc87b412f3c2b2bdb8ab7 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xcf0d0e3de426828f1bc18cf032d92a2352967058ed50614534a92d2e2fbcab5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | yes | 0.232558 | solana-above-on-november-21 | Will the price of Solana be above $130 on November 21? | 79,294,472 | 79,294,472 |
d676fbd05c1d894579e05d3c6f5e3020bd043aca | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xa8374d859884ff7cb31d8e417de3abcd2316a367eda10902a87cecfe1424e4bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 21? | 79,300,517 | 79,300,517 |
4d59edf4630623b403234d60e229319a6e91956c | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xff7cdfccc4f0f7d7e7a7711d6217a03fe411008f1aaaca987c46f9bd0bbbfef4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-21 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 21? | 79,300,788 | 79,300,788 |
4d08db4d0bd81576fb2711532e0f5889d01f8588 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x1546d86a4827296f3e754e405efa50e95c19def0a8539318ae3dffb339de9bf9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 22? | 79,306,948 | 79,306,948 |
07a937fad99415140066bac6b758c388dfb0e47d | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xcb3aba0cc6398d85588790cff2afae7a29d1a7f4ea6a54e6f278bfeecd41b2e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-22 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 22? | 79,311,808 | 79,311,808 |
c04823c8dd4698d26d0330d8cf734d7d1168f24b | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x52617e3031582dcef46cbd7d2f291c83396176ac8209e38ca7c8ae993f6c8ca5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | solana-above-on-november-21 | Will the price of Solana be above $120 on November 21? | 79,316,007 | 79,497,855 |
98a2f86febb163774a74b46c934f42f6b366de62 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x01024d8b2f1a3d22d8781f8a52dc8628571485e17b29743a723958b98935152b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-22 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 22? | 79,320,023 | 79,320,023 |
4b33526375a261ef26999ae457712f5d1cb7bc3c | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xaf5d530b29f25673f5f6f2a5d31409673ac2b039a0bd83a220c1281f968aeca2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 22? | 79,327,998 | 79,327,998 |
75cea20d65b4c2459718b9d010957590d45e9dd6 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xfe71d2658e56016541e3f42fde76202594462a28fdb2dc09d30c8603e73a8242 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 25? | 79,451,906 | 79,451,906 |
a2f9f5ef97aa59edd36764574b4d983b9515733f | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x5ebfbe85c87d1d295514141916ace61fa3d1d0b57ab4c248c57fb9f4bfb2c864 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 25? | 79,489,721 | 79,489,721 |
533e38d1a0db6d26a5eb4ecadc2fb93accb3d38d | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xca2c368117e29c233ed9175b999aaa9bef5a94a2b05fae62b537bf42c3b34901 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | yes | 0.039673 | solana-above-on-november-26 | Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 26? | 79,489,789 | 79,497,834 |
246e6763b58780af2138c5e2d1b79bbc275487c3 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x716b13843309083504e0f4854e79ed4aaae585d86d17d5a850141d5ec89b5ca7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-26 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 26? | 79,497,835 | 79,788,633 |
29205785f3a268c381be36cf3880c7d19b1a8643 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xc157839a17d7cd7245e9bddf69b657f525e13eb036d059cb17a36b8c89b1983b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 26? | 79,497,860 | 79,531,245 |
c773eaa15b746256fd4955781b4ce1e75beb7f11 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x93c25deb8911dd61b28d102cd09a6c76239f1a941c3d950b4fcff33d39adeba5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-26 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 26? | 79,498,210 | 79,498,210 |
0d9ffb2d6dd48f3b78abb6458ca2300b8c8b607e | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x46e09afe728fce01a7b99497c21e4ff752bc81ee40facde5fffc27b66e5f9bed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 26? | 79,515,673 | 79,533,417 |
1d8ae64ae15557e09829c923bfe45051fd88b7f2 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x815f33e2583151e83a0ea55d33125612f1520a244da5ac21853e2b5e38c4f96c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0.12 | solana-above-on-november-27 | Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 27? | 79,537,126 | 79,574,038 |
2b0e9848176432f8884d9745d92b00030fa29960 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xad4357212a5c07201dd9df3bfc45f04e8a7ae127b5cbe7924b9b0077d809368e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price ... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 27? | 79,537,493 | 79,537,493 |
0de3fd754c1a4b6d0382340640b04a8d437826d1 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xa80e1502780f3291b91ec30bd63c2ee9d08d8f386d85b0a8e1e2681d27fe9a23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? | Event: solana-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 19? | Event: solana-above-on-november-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bit... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 27? | 79,540,404 | 79,540,404 |
96b7575635b93c540cdf43834d19779206654184 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x48643367dbaf503a0f46937f6384d43f36b7189d7c3945918386912728e538ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 19? | Event: solana-above-on-november-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 19? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price o... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-27 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 27? | 79,563,348 | 79,563,348 |
a2b505b46d5e2956f5e0f1e73b134b3d218573b6 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x942948b92e5b74b452efb0aeb5cd090e9ddf0164ce492b2668c79ed045295ad3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 19? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the p... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 30? | 79,695,221 | 79,702,374 |
24091011b9bcd3538ee57f7b7efbfb513bec819a | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xb85b8e3e3b0158e468517ef9719234febbd200a1b783e0f0bfbc9c6d88db90b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 18? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 19? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the ... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 30? | 79,698,188 | 79,698,188 |
2c1b03f3377daa14eb9efc9609cfc30351ccd2a2 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x101cb4f0de6f94165b057092450fc514ffc979d30c74366bb8a6c9d7eb783f1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 19? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 20? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Ques... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-30 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 30? | 79,698,907 | 79,698,907 |
1e4e2eab6f36eba8c08f2e2eeefb618d674caebf | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xfb5150e1398164e75303e1149060388e967d9adb603c08de7b7437a8173a147a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 20? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 20? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Ques... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-30 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 30? | 79,698,913 | 79,698,913 |
0a09ac3b33d95c6bae2b3bc2dcc37043f191ca8b | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xd53e69917e9598adfbf78f0aa0d47dc84d4d6823df13212805221a771552dd4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 20? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 20? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the p... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-november-30 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 30? | 79,699,215 | 79,702,983 |
5d592d7f343713ac640d5de8f48dbfc8c8b49a4d | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0xc8243471115c4ac980e05cb1805045b66880e62aaf94131809547b7ecce7a1e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 20? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 20? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the pr... | no | 0 | solana-above-on-november-30 | Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 30? | 79,702,255 | 79,788,633 |
49ab19216525542f3726620f7ee9b9ad399adb3b | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x9840c562cf24caeba5b440468c2c68c1316c9d7e5c48bf86f58099829e389623 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 20? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 20? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the p... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-december-1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 1? | 79,705,189 | 79,747,803 |
be9461d0126465e4d32eaf2434786d63fdb027c3 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x4b578f0e6c756a6b18b4da46e17f3da68d108568aa2eacebb265338b39cb3a5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 20? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 21? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the ... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-december-1 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 1? | 79,709,556 | 79,788,633 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.