sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
c9bf15e91cc9eb62e05202ebfd870505a0cd3bb8 | 0x120da1db198ff698599684c05b224d8ffa7aed83 | 0x634ea8f368ec7f02dd28b0e485798a5436f9e41095b4ab89d55c4336dbef272b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 21? | Event: ethereum-above-on-november-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 21? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-november-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the p... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-december-1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 1? | 79,726,738 | 79,788,633 |
9575f0ab32d1f7435013361185bc86e54335947b | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x289dc66d9938b32cb340a630d13de0a91e3e04e0dc62a219a26a16e6f9cc2600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 73,268,549 | 73,466,340 |
619708b42655224590b165706555ad56baf3b903 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x710444e70cd1cbb30f7881eea20b0455140ea837262ec019076b710829003a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup?
Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. ... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,272,658 | 73,488,717 |
def34bd2f9c5b76e59c2e942060d02d505a2c893 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x7a02abdd212e54db130ebe5bed436ec233a53f332e6d21a4cb8e7db89c6dbe00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the Party for ... | no | 1 | netherlands-parliamentary-election | Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 73,278,258 | 73,278,605 |
b5ef24cf92cee41cb5981fda41e3aa941aa7eb37 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x57d54876db75bc14335476f7502e5442e1eb4e44dd017c357d8d299ae1200300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | f1-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $43M? | 73,278,755 | 73,317,198 |
c179ec6fa68fb5c1ff3eeab17a4c2c892212ce4c | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xa1bc382023cff73c0e9400bbdced54a04ce6055e5da9b1fa5f2b05e804dfa400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | which-party-gains-most-seats-in-japan-councillors-election | Will LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | 73,279,494 | 73,279,494 |
143448ba2660f4024ff037a8b8b797e186d724b1 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xc6b51d70f95bea500b9ccfad31b4e99b1f0085bd806a3b6d5599530fe3d07700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,281,539 | 73,413,169 |
123df0a2a83bb7b71093a7ad71b9a803174b8534 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x451adc1a7096a1092b3b947e85f00df47407c8f31fed3f0f7ff3b6583095a935 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27? | 73,304,382 | 73,304,382 |
30803fa64b177d2d279ca4774a6512cfd47c7fdf | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x9af374d23b7b612550b1330ad54260ee3727fa109f40789ff7030b94d736ad81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27? | 73,304,382 | 73,304,382 |
570b1bbae653964151c41c9f9abed68b62b6c3ee | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xc45a17a7f0aecd784a54ed88ba578ae13587b3fae8dde8d24dd4ef1adeaf8647 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27? | 73,304,382 | 73,304,382 |
11947becce2243533ed098f20156bdad8bf1bd1e | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x9fd488ab007fee2215e7bc005173e18f8178d4bea8adcafdabbd1be89b100e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | 2025-mid-season-invitational | Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | 73,308,842 | 73,350,681 |
2df1f8ed205a3999a779c9b5cc299f4cc5b345ef | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x2ea1624c10a060f5a6b767aa8362376856b957b0325ce8b86b389e5ff9c04800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | 73,308,993 | 73,329,840 |
571d733258a26fe15f2800861f044e9f6adef229 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x0089468d8c962578128fd07d978abf91110a1809474470fd16836c7fcd2fd300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? | 73,309,029 | 73,309,029 |
b3af83810a1d8055ecc305de420efdbb837169a5 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x9947eb9583fc9d6b3867febb05bb9b75f63747eb80e646625f121021a6889000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4? | 73,309,100 | 73,365,895 |
ece859c0b721cc03e94358dea257ae96e443a1b0 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x4731c41975bf081e498b91fa8ff8f0dd953e7a9e732c23ba01ac4df77f4cfd00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | june-inflation-monthly | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in June? | 73,309,319 | 73,489,068 |
e1080e4d9637b2287cd207ac271b1beebef8c501 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xdac3454f5e59fbdfaf6b444822d178296f96f43656d23f955bb4c7c7e7dbab00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | m3gan-2pt0-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "M3GAN 2.0" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $16M? | 73,309,362 | 73,326,668 |
c493d03d5e02accbed5b464438745495bb30f4ba | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xbd2503719f98bf2a970ac1f57e314c40ee9d8e40885556e5e5a3d86af8f21200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | nyc-mayoral-dem-primary-mamdani-mov | Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be 8% or less in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | 73,309,435 | 73,452,333 |
9f21f5aba7447fce7b3d2b280452598174d17ef6 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xf97582f8cb131d8b67b30366a55bbb970dfd22a317e38a4af7cfb9cb6532e300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner-2025 | Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | 73,318,401 | 73,466,528 |
c80432eca30a1118088839b8ad068667a05b1028 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x21fe0526a546b1d5d3b4f35de440f66be67dc08dcac635d78ac960f89c8af1d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? | 73,349,649 | 73,349,649 |
82dbc4894811dbefa7baee51470f04be88e52957 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x2327da76193a29539e961353b17088cf91d25fb4a7b17c15c13a7fd38d9587f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? | 73,349,649 | 73,349,649 |
ccb369d1275e3e775a0fbea73c587c530facbcb4 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x28bac6eb660d995daaa1dd5f5d4b564dd523d0b35f65f417f89db6f2d60cbaa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? | 73,349,649 | 73,349,649 |
1d9026f11c0fa9c7f1dacf7a9b7919e89183d13b | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x854d0294f882258b095fe63580028b0aef3a844403ddbde970ca56e285ce304b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? | 73,349,649 | 73,349,649 |
1500e7916c0ab4035c4911fc9148f72db7a39980 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xbbe122435ab98506658033e1d66c3a915fcd652150451f63fd0ebca7ae9c328a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? | 73,349,649 | 73,349,649 |
6d85314fc22ed32944098a608a627315c68c3e52 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xcced0e1210eef04dd3d5720eba4e6c6012818b1b80c4c91ae5119b90e6d1f673 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? | 73,349,649 | 73,349,649 |
f20de5e54b0dcdb5034067e23bb0390173cb4a70 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xd1018f08fad29a6742adff8643df380f7fe37662415c0ae296d022afd9e20141 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? | 73,349,649 | 73,349,649 |
92eed8b052e06b01a25347a7e3872a3563c704b6 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xdce83f95fe105da7a803cd822f9bb57cfb7daa5fdabffe74d05727f70be24dbf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? | 73,349,649 | 73,349,649 |
e6aeeeaa822727e867eb34ee3068b11716bf106c | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xdedc40102c6550ebb63a837ac2f8d39d37657800cfd0788bd89e1b9e904b8f6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? | 73,349,649 | 73,349,649 |
198886138ce79fe707aa3f3d24ef014dd6eb8325 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xe3cd379dd7d457deea570e1c1840a9519a5aaebc4031299437e9fac076f990b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Alexander Albon win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? | 73,349,649 | 73,349,649 |
cc838b7775ae9e2627cbf4a25aeda0051b12d4ec | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x038f8fd7c279885fbe08a379f126a3e6c65722335f7b71c147fa22284554a492 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | f1-austrian-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? | 73,349,650 | 73,349,650 |
3689c0ccf619c6afd6361202d7eae57e723a54ff | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x224fc5f2500f82216d3484e24450cf0f97a431bf51b4b6f5ab79d0e26e5a4f23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | UFC 317: Will Topuria Win By Submission? | 73,359,676 | 73,359,676 |
f35d38395eb6ac0c50b560d5d5a804d78ab5f965 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x34f3c4537e0dbad5b668a3bc54a072513de457a1e2056ac4e48deebc349bb282 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By Submission? | 73,359,676 | 73,359,676 |
35090b4fb4d40f25220467c8381187bf89f67af3 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x77cbd838f53751931e1a34868920a5f0050dbcbca12def5bd91775e603b62522 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win t... | no | 1 | ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By KO/TKO/DQ? | 73,359,676 | 73,359,676 |
ca510afc38348bf51da5d82688fabfdb8d7530b9 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xb86970053728b234d57a2407a1f72d3181a23ef08a55b4a28c501b04ade89052 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By Decision? | 73,359,676 | 73,359,676 |
9c1e9e1a82a86d9ee311496a575d2f71f0fae96b | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xc6ca6530db6f209c58db5439cf6ad2285a4ca452cced7bb3cb7a141f53f1f129 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: netherlands-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $43M? | Event: f1-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | UFC 317: Will Topuria vs. Oliveira be decided by any other method? | 73,359,676 | 73,359,676 |
ab5d965ae7e8e72183698fc2aa12a5afbe8bbc6f | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xd7c4d54e8f3046263339a4fe1390768243720989e5cd5c71f5b07561d77c5806 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $43M? | Event: f1-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | Event: which-party-gains-most-seats-in-japan-councillors-elec... | no | 1 | ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | UFC 317: Will Topuria vs. Oliveira end in a draw? | 73,359,676 | 73,359,676 |
722d23366de5fc9029ff339d50175e3dbc12beb7 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xe5f7c373ce5e7f1148dc4dd529e12647fb42c3686625a1ca0bfa6b1064e88cd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | Event: which-party-gains-most-seats-in-japan-councillors-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Con... | no | 1 | ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | UFC 317: Will Topuria Win By Decision? | 73,359,676 | 73,359,676 |
23f62efcd086c056520578eac677b786cf412b83 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xc33e0f56694313bfb573e75700f13b19d6fee0845d18b94b04b938ff03917353 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | Event: 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-20-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27? | Event: ... | no | 1 | ufc-317-topuria-vs-oliveira-method-of-victory | UFC 317: Will Topuria To Win By KO/TKO/DQ? | 73,359,678 | 73,359,678 |
8c534406aa3fa5ecebcbc88f3998bbed8109fabe | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x639e4288d5d69536e7b0bedf4606b372ecaaec61591cfe8bf40679dbfa53d400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-20-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-20-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?... | no | 1 | when-will-the-reconciliation-bill-passe | Will the next reconciliation bill be passed before July? | 73,365,904 | 73,365,904 |
d7ab4d568a410ddfc48b667306ebae388802164f | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0xe14500a62f39f74d657364c5d07f6a9affbe2470d24cbb97adb1e15528b74200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-20-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-20-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invita... | no | 1 | bolivia-presidential-election | Will Luis Arce win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | 73,372,130 | 73,476,605 |
40de531546ac8ba5fa6823a9fde4d62e58bd9f36 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x211da7bf29e9b81731fa66d4f3438e8352e6ae18ff2c31695ac2fb549b981000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-20-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 A... | no | 1 | freestyle-chess-lands-in-las-vegas | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament? | 73,375,966 | 73,375,966 |
8920fb8648dc90433008b9ee2bd01b54941b9a55 | 0x1217832819e321d21f4e5a27c62b8ec6ad845d72 | 0x52e65e99eacb6e59cc5102792265bb177414bd6803cde84409ae749d4fe9c700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | Event: 2025-mid-season-invitational | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? | Event: f1-austrian-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win ... | no | 1 | chile-presidential-election | Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | 73,382,965 | 73,385,914 |
b1917a503537fa8ef53e178ae164c5a096a8915b | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x6b4ce7305403b9fd0756c91559d6edcf79062478c1d58bd2f5f1d1b2d34c3098 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference?
Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "ration... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | 75,079,890 | 75,079,890 |
82764c30890739ce4f0d894e1868ed76c27cba07 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xc4d9bc6fcc9af439181ab8a06a6b440127b20976aa0e629d3e6f2779f07cde1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week?
Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-aug... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 | Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | 75,168,626 | 75,168,626 |
e1e37643dfc7251a9a411269bfd69d034f4142ff | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xbc2b7a0c56294fe48dfcdec4875bc2f76a760012a4d4c07ef6513c0da6a19b6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | yes | 1 | chess-quantbox-chennai-grand-masters-winner-926 | Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters? | 75,206,264 | 75,206,264 |
1a95bfe9291321ce16ef3294344f28ae2c1e3eea | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x254b2aecff0202e212980284b62eaa091b5d09b9b487cc85f7f3374db81b9a97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 13? | 75,206,273 | 75,206,273 |
68546fb0c3d7b1f3ef0b306dada5f7ed7d322290 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xe78d29f93ef6d2a5c02930911e7a0e3c1e7f76850945784814a1434bf1096c39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 13? | 75,206,274 | 75,206,274 |
3b5255cdced00cd0169c4a9d5248d3e385860ed6 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xd8fa6b29e3aa6e09ad77f5f6aa0626ebb19a85ea8d03dccb5d322087ae9be7b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on August 14? | 75,206,276 | 75,206,276 |
da3c68efd3b2c1aaa4b0bfb03aea8ee920af187e | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x93470d9db34ceb7a916f0eec55cbff0a0fc2cd2c5152ba93fa4c68af23631aca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | yes | 1 | cricket-the-hundred-winner | Will Manchester Originals win The Hundred Men's Competition 2025? | 75,668,629 | 75,668,629 |
69302e7f1e146305e565018914b58781c33ede54 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x23b7d0ec962717f82e92e4ebd3a8781538bcb3491d063aaa0976a74dce45b3de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | yes | 1 | rodrygo-next-club | Will Rodrygo transfer to any other club? | 75,955,516 | 75,955,516 |
40db946572d14df01b062b844abf21cf3f729d96 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x29ef9f718c384491ab2b2fbd7ebf0be5a34e6f228475cd5bf38c89df993325cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | yes | 1 | cricket-the-hundred-winner | Will Trent Rockets win The Hundred Men's Competition 2025? | 75,955,516 | 75,955,516 |
753460e1d79fceb2209535660fffdc7f359097a3 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x5cfc3a449ff450c8b48cc78cf8d3c1d151bd87eb882c21f25e87c80a54a3289b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | yes | 1 | rodrygo-next-club | Will Rodrygo transfer to PSG? | 75,955,516 | 75,955,516 |
3374823ca17a99601a79f21185d670c5e9509c07 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x8045007657f7129c210c59ec8e5b4b6cd5067ed974958fdd0f3a4794cb0e9c31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | yes | 1 | rodrygo-next-club | Will Rodrygo transfer to Manchester City? | 75,955,516 | 75,955,516 |
cfb009fb0e845c4a106410a4854a5a311284c0ad | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xbac46e271fda7727e456ff1e3c3c952c0d17237a56bc08160a39ee886cc3f5af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | yes | 1 | rodrygo-next-club | Will Rodrygo transfer to Liverpool? | 75,955,516 | 75,955,516 |
f7b20f64b61fd55e126664b815b8b9e1ca464975 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xd2fbe09b0bf571237346d46326d2073776032adfb5d0ec7d75a77e3f2f50f981 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | yes | 1 | rodrygo-next-club | Will Rodrygo transfer to Al Hilal? | 75,955,516 | 75,955,516 |
689e46260bcc65febed2a77d4f291b533a25c91a | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xd3716be37d41e6d598bc71ccc3e343a1aca79551794fbb298f35a79303257072 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | yes | 1 | rodrygo-next-club | Will Rodrygo transfer to Tottenham? | 75,955,516 | 75,955,516 |
77767cec19017163270f2077fedc6c913858466d | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x3397ddb6b66c23f7ebdb73771cf432a9f56221cdcab67de8b87a7848f2dcfc7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | no | 1 | guyana-presidential-election | Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? | 76,202,382 | 76,202,382 |
c30ceeaa4422150176470d1b44f83bc5de558713 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xbb1bbfd6716e9d6f8413be2f065de94509ce2112193cb8dffd4f2c0c07526c94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | yes | 1 | guyana-presidential-election | Will Aubrey Norton win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? | 76,202,386 | 76,202,386 |
bd62f654c6be6e51dc2145c1f9d820dbcef3c81c | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x7ce0e57d115ca44e5efb1c97973ece8ed1b08765dfeac2a4143fe693d5c7bbb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-25 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 25? | 79,593,802 | 79,593,802 |
b0bc713469b257f7a61e1d5687589789cefc789d | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xcba21751b1053bd927dbf3c1232886db10fe6d9a9e342c0c91e933d7cc931de2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | no | 1 | mex-jua-tol-2025-11-26 | Will FC Juárez vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw? | 79,593,802 | 79,593,802 |
3ee2a3247916e51edfe9c3b29f3f88290bcb7b43 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xe47efac8e8c964465d9c9b19431b7520fcf9fa65bf084d09516f538178679a58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-25 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on November 25? | 79,593,802 | 79,593,802 |
ef56fb3d15ab8acf0548ab449bbd8371abe2e160 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x89b50c9f6b22c07f88450d8123c28b1adea4e4442fd1730bcb7d0e77561e9200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | no | 1 | zootopia-2-5-day-opening-box-office | Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 115m? | 79,593,925 | 79,593,925 |
098e9c706b75a9ad178e8fa8153740747af47f72 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xfeacc16dce14328859224bbbb775f4e9e89f34095b27be31a0843d1a7558c400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | no | 1 | aapl-week-november-28-2025 | Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$245 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,629,028 | 79,629,028 |
76e4cf9520fd0c545f7e81b8447e03a88384da79 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x1a401e1731ec809615245110fe930a10c766d2a93b6dc6ea7843b122f019ea00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | no | 1 | us-gdp-growth-in-q3-2025 | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%? | 79,629,085 | 79,698,589 |
528f982e60307dd85cac82f241c14afb079189e3 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x91eb615013098c0480e1ade0bf538d2c08312b03f76e19da7f5a0d7d61c7a100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | no | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | 79,629,163 | 79,629,250 |
6426f22db234e5f9b9ed7c014e7be9964a714742 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x9e645463cfe5fca492926531a4b57eba5390328eb3ee005890524a8699889ebc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | no | 1 | where-will-it-snow-first | Will New York City record the first snowfall? | 79,629,265 | 79,629,265 |
9b739bb6c869bd99c401f2cfd526c872733a4956 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x837a09153bb45e4caca0aa27a88c952709c2f24d7b3e4b6519e9b67d69cf6700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | no | 1 | 1-searched-song-on-google-this-year | Will The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the #1 searched song on Google this year? | 79,682,626 | 79,682,626 |
f5350174bdda5e9d67c4e9b2125c1f866a4f702a | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x0d97e25f1830a3f18d5b4d43e6e1648d3b8b781e3c254a0b9d2c07a62f505100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-january | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | 79,698,292 | 79,698,292 |
5fa4d7f8c58bde9f2e66539bb9116962c12afbb8 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xb21aee671981a17dbe74335a897a6ad470306bbfd6b79aee3312fa076f289900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | no | 1 | ere-psv-vol-2025-11-30 | Will PSV win on 2025-11-30? | 79,698,511 | 79,698,511 |
3500d6af86022cc200e00e786f741750e788332f | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x1403ebe8019483d9df0c45f8c20d1a6a77848f7e219cc5b361bce1d51209a2d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | no | 1 | mex-tol-jua-2025-11-29 | Will FC Juárez win on 2025-11-29? | 79,721,582 | 79,721,582 |
bcb505247815eb2c0968cbb08d5ab6cd6bf6df0f | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x24fccb30d24c6a5225dfd3f07dfd2001e0f221efee4a3113f4880bc4dd83e4f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | no | 1 | tur-kas-iba-2025-11-29 | Will Kasımpaşa SK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK end in a draw? | 79,721,582 | 79,721,582 |
d049f183d99e8002a2ebf082ba371df11b40e985 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xb48d5f0ac3174bfae3ff62f06250773fcfc2c59e9d4a7436ae8d4e8ca53b6bb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | yes | 1 | ere-sit-her-2025-11-29 | Will Fortuna Sittard vs. Heracles Almelo end in a draw? | 79,721,582 | 79,721,582 |
4c6bb893ec43add1b3d0aee3e3a57a20ec069473 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x6702add14c8e48a12a1084d68761824393eab42d844b9c7a8852edbb2c060300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 |... | no | 1 | honduras-presidential-election | Will Mario Rivera Callejas win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | 79,721,884 | 79,721,884 |
9eb99e2158510e44ba7ebb4e2ce59fc1014e631d | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x7fb7c5b533f51a6071719f91ad014eeab260a995442e2e8041501e22c8c9a200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-august-11-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters? | Event: chess-quantbox-chennai-grand-masters-winner-926 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | largest-company-end-of-2025 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 79,739,100 | 79,739,100 |
09453ea8b516d894f4c9cd2984a73b8772ab126e | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x8d9540f4caef531e7065998ff291ba9038588cfe647d8f4822f892112df86f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters? | Event: chess-quantbox-chennai-grand-masters-winner-926 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-1... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-december | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | 79,759,529 | 79,759,529 |
880f8180f3d0ebaf961b6c27a754673b2971c029 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x0c311565a2bb5c0cc1c28c2b6237f26bee66058ae1876a074816b9a4c2db7900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-au... | no | 1 | 2nd-largest-company-end-of-2025 | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 79,759,935 | 79,759,935 |
26be44b03c2f9fb3bb488577c7a32e311310c631 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x12b1fc5b26ab59a80f5ebd70ce024e1581cf0ca72b55ba674d7dac4c416c47cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on August 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-... | no | 1 | mex-jua-tol-2025-11-26 | Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-11-26? | 79,799,004 | 79,799,004 |
3f2f96d106d9aa49c35f7799e7ae0f459cce8efa | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x30f869342dc0d99d0c89c9cd93900142b1e98b6724b160c7f2e33e8513e08d88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on August 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester Originals win The Hundred Men's Competition 2025? | Event: cricket-the-hundred-winner | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-qb-points-leader-week-1 | Will Kyler Murray record the most fantasy points in Week 1? | 79,799,004 | 79,799,004 |
cd65b30528faccdcc5056c582cf80f31d559b0df | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x426af12f99b7fdbb0ee379a51c706b2173fc9c05ec079b5a6ccab59205072649 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester Originals win The Hundred Men's Competition 2025? | Event: cricket-the-hundred-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to any other club? | Event: rodrygo-next-club | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trent Rockets win The Hundre... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-25 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 25? | 79,799,004 | 79,799,004 |
b7b566c70db36a87fdfe4db94e439acec53d521e | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xa3be7eebb40eba3d132b6c35bc44aa9d87a1fe0a7c70d571f950fe6a759d576d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to any other club? | Event: rodrygo-next-club | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trent Rockets win The Hundred Men's Competition 2025? | Event: cricket-the-hundred-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to PSG? | Event: r... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-qb-points-leader-week-1 | Will Drake Maye record the most fantasy points in Week 1? | 79,799,004 | 79,799,004 |
55f30df76689b4391b930b16b11e85b66202cfe5 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xd79fa8748dda273f70ebddfb223a1d4ecf38a517d8e30896d88af3ab9612286b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trent Rockets win The Hundred Men's Competition 2025? | Event: cricket-the-hundred-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to PSG? | Event: rodrygo-next-club | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to Manchester City? | Event: ... | no | 1 | mex-tol-jua-2025-11-29 | Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. FC Juárez end in a draw? | 79,799,004 | 79,799,004 |
a91d63084f1042308a0ae436ca720b93c7789faf | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x20b4e188e5543cdd6385446ce9ce43d6b2e2ba609a60c56ea0a8eb8072588038 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to PSG? | Event: rodrygo-next-club | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to Manchester City? | Event: rodrygo-next-club | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to Liverpool? | Event: rodrygo-next-club | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | ere-sit-her-2025-11-29 | Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-11-29? | 79,799,007 | 79,799,007 |
ab3af0977825e46d00de51459bd4f8b50e79a53d | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x21ffc5316c5f64e03becea7c470a77dc28fd318adf9687fe0dd3e3bc724e0b51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to Manchester City? | Event: rodrygo-next-club | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to Liverpool? | Event: rodrygo-next-club | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to Al Hilal? | Event: rodrygo-next-club | Choice:... | yes | 1 | ere-sit-her-2025-11-29 | Will Heracles Almelo win on 2025-11-29? | 79,799,007 | 79,799,007 |
101d864a513ff65c7f44d018336c9cdbe291783e | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xb4847664db2638f9a70da06f519302d7e6cf6986ed84b797d9471b5fc2440215 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to Liverpool? | Event: rodrygo-next-club | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to Al Hilal? | Event: rodrygo-next-club | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to Tottenham? | Event: rodrygo-next-club | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | tur-kas-iba-2025-11-29 | Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2025-11-29? | 79,799,007 | 79,799,007 |
03b685a7a58a3ddd56fd3d6974299ebbaa5e3100 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xe3778d1b115bb35858ad688911a878d2478701e23e00ffdeea5a8e3524958d53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to Al Hilal? | Event: rodrygo-next-club | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to Tottenham? | Event: rodrygo-next-club | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? | Event: guyana-pre... | no | 1 | giannis-antetokounmpos-next-team | Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? | 79,799,007 | 79,799,007 |
3b35e88af8698f6abfe1cb98e7dc9c8a7cbca934 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xa96ab797058f1dfaee75c984cd677f1f0353a58646ca674532929cb83f109f89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rodrygo transfer to Tottenham? | Event: rodrygo-next-club | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? | Event: guyana-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aubrey Norton win the 2025 Guyana presi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-december-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on December 2? | 79,824,921 | 79,824,921 |
a4886b7b35a79b24514f869e40c341b8ef336344 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xfed0c3c63d2638b92279bea69d9b9cc843e95f55e4c3571dc74ad7903758a66b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? | Event: guyana-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aubrey Norton win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? | Event: guyana-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will th... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-december-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or higher on December 2? | 79,824,921 | 79,824,921 |
2bf5ecaa9963fbff733daacd3742cf9f70efa491 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x05538a7eb0230a702addc95b4e9b25d912ceb8e410af408cfe61436f360fc000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aubrey Norton win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? | Event: guyana-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-25 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-march-751 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | 79,851,752 | 79,869,106 |
ebecb8567984588ddc4e346a7c9fdba296730678 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0xa479512914df84e24acfd8b424204918a97fa94e20c2647bc389641eda350100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Juárez vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw? | Event: mex-jua-tol-2025-11-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | test-new-wes-2025-12-01 | Will New Zealand win? | 79,852,102 | 79,968,694 |
f6869be6f2596b93bd9bd0fa0dd7d7772c20b5a5 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x120ad010d546eb93d828fa371748f6ac74cc397b18e204dc6f035aeb74918a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Juárez vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw? | Event: mex-jua-tol-2025-11-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on November 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | test-aus-eng-2025-12-04 | Will Australia win? | 79,869,004 | 79,968,704 |
1cff5dd08b7b6d104ba7f29a008aeb9f80322a9b | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x7900860aed8a602946f1edfa96e1a490953f4851b7c7ec348648c0037975b900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on November 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 115m? | Event: zootopia-2-5-day-opening-box-office | Choice: n... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-december-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be 43°F or below on December 5? | 79,869,103 | 79,869,103 |
e6c0f2b5a16ca5c924d97f982ae4db25dd2f1537 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x9c60220e899eeeda7ec0e138a82ed57b0be45522233a026da51c0d3bcc9c5e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 115m? | Event: zootopia-2-5-day-opening-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$245 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | Event: aapl-week-november-28-2025 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | epl-mun-wes-2025-12-04 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04? | 79,896,901 | 79,896,901 |
e2991fc7e662aad5baa806657b1f5546e857b1a2 | 0x123763d93c954fab567b14507d07e931d902f312 | 0x41848ba72e1ce1b3e2098ee2322a211e009e2d4159f732d5d335e2987159f900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$245 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | Event: aapl-week-november-28-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%? | Event: us-gdp-growth-in-q3-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | what-will-microsoft-msft-close-at-in-2025 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at <$400 in 2025? | 79,896,905 | 79,896,905 |
640f50a260f0e69099483089851e560c54201bdc | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0xacbda74c0ef35c23ddad0e601e1b9cd07721ae0bce0ef38e6ad9cf9f78475253 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: UK strike on Iran before July?
Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0 | uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | UK strike on Iran before July? | 73,088,978 | 73,088,978 |
381f364c773f27acb25fd809af540fbc8dc404e2 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0xf4099439e1a83e5ad5ca4c0949e94363e7ce814530cf803585994966e559e298 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2?
Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output stri... | yes | 1 | tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | 73,498,032 | 73,498,032 |
ed514ae58f29f32abf459d0cd9fdf7020bdbc236 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x5921ed37d4bd33a1ea6c460997ae9549abd4f0d467fed8fca4732c7a35614a79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the Reconciliation bill ... | no | 1 | how-many-votes-will-reconciliation-bill-get-in-the-house | Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–216 votes? | 73,553,257 | 73,553,257 |
0d721c9a123b2dbc1d0b49e31b5a203e52340714 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x6b79b0d97923fafd34d8f0c08d431b25be819c908cd3c3bdba17e0301da66e5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | no | 1 | how-many-votes-will-reconciliation-bill-get-in-the-house | Will the Reconciliation bill receive 213–214 votes? | 73,553,257 | 73,553,257 |
69dcec9881e914e5d2ed02f88795d57b25e4dd76 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x6cf3987128ef2424eefe80ade1ca390a88d4d1f08ae5d970fbf4d4179cce6ce1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | no | 1 | malawi-presidential-election-981 | Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? | 73,945,856 | 76,912,816 |
3ddb74e4e8aca28a1d61fb160f4322a875977382 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x83c8a61ad1d32ad4ae042179e46f3f51535747b4a83a668fb6b4d22bff946a79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | no | 1 | japan-house-of-councillors-election-2nd-place | Will LDP hold the second most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | 74,267,896 | 74,267,896 |
6edd5c6491e49ab49bf8f6509a88213631322cbf | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0xd84e2a05c276dce048acf05cbfae870d83872173ac6186417c25562fe0fae223 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 0.000086 | f1-drivers-champion-2nd-place | Will Lando Norris finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | 74,284,102 | 74,284,102 |
63547d07ae7ba8c5b4b197724efabb86c32dfac1 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x9778aa7639001067d7ddfc3212a678c764352b3ade5a6130100468ecaa46abef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 0.000055 | will-a-new-country-join-the-abraham-accords-in-2025 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | 74,325,254 | 74,325,254 |
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