sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
abf6e21330de0a34bd39f7d53152a6d2732d40b7 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x85531f2b164bb5fe49b9268b2ba20b977a1c6e04f066f9ff664a46dbbe97ada1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | no | 0 | jony-ive-out-at-openai-before-august | Jony Ive out at OpenAI before August? | 74,610,580 | 74,610,580 |
f2419a20276e08211844fe85dc4071c17adfc678 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x2401dd16e4b9399e6f60166d104aaac962c05ff403980a2f0da5354ccd8bbc25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 1 | will-elon-musk-unfollow-donald-trump-before-august | Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before August? | 74,824,504 | 74,824,504 |
0b3795f009431bd87dacba859c93780e227222b7 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0xbebc3a48cb63435373073f7365eb5359fb05904ae0d1630d40694a472c8d1f7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 0.000005 | ai-model-scores-90-on-frontiermath-benchmark-in-2025 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025? | 75,042,600 | 75,042,600 |
ec191f3dcbfaa8066c8fec122b0bc0d858d50f56 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x8c833d4eb0fe9779b90379bcd1c41265ff5a95db043ac71a8e43822de4af0d2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | no | 1 | will-iran-withdraw-from-the-npt-before-august | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before August? | 75,237,737 | 75,237,737 |
9763a887048bd3631d0e9e95105a59ccf857dadb | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0xd73e0a50dfef3196dc888807fad04a77d3432314ef846753d7ff5dd814f8cb88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 1 | nyc-mayor-dem-primary-1st-round-winner | Scott Stringer gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | 75,237,737 | 75,237,737 |
be4316b319c23eaf45af6a9a16a5df9a45e5dcc8 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x0f48eb593031c008fb2f0b24a81b79cb1f77150845a4b9b7156dabe7880c65fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | no | 0 | f1-constructors-championship-2nd-place | Will Ferrari finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? | 75,256,252 | 76,485,212 |
7bdab4aa4cf93e0cc88f38bbe1c1e72407aa9099 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0xd55e6a4e0fe32f83c3898800d20a8fb4d5844b7e0a08c1a5dd3b10144ba9a887 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 0.002486 | will-xi-visit-the-us-before-september | Will Xi visit the US before September? | 75,675,302 | 75,675,302 |
17efcae59758d50a9d0b91b112e2f1c97bfd73df | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x3afa81bb94906e2ffb00d6f7bd93bcc15be7589ffc6c4d842e5f80dbc7359549 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | no | 0.004975 | jamaica-house-of-representatives-election-winner | Will JLP (Jamaica Labour Party) win the most seats in the 2025 Jamaica House of Representatives election? | 75,795,094 | 76,115,407 |
530276dae5bb06f55e89a482185f584c99859236 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x6aedb21e3b7ace35c1c279e325309af3dcf5e93d67afd8954f63a39cea319d46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | no | 1 | august-unemployment-rate | Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | 76,114,454 | 76,114,454 |
25ed754d7095e0207c77c7423279e8269f01040e | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x9cd7a9a6a2fa6738595b6374fd417ad0381a9c57e0f58a2f39c025d34ef27813 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 0.999246 | how-many-jobs-added-in-august-643 | Will the US add less than 50k jobs in August? | 76,114,454 | 76,114,454 |
53730cb57ccac9dfac77c12894f60e6aa705ad72 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0xa3fbe23c5d834cc300280814d54ca6fa8856d7270eb0ef6859bfbbf2d8c9cd41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-august-643 | Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August? | 76,114,454 | 76,114,454 |
83cfa0107830f24865f87eec7ec1d6497464a746 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x2278c1bb85cc3032e65dabffd22c7ce4759bbff8dadf40a0849856a796cec349 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-august-643 | Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in August? | 76,115,407 | 76,115,407 |
3cde91e8df95548bfd79b12e1dfd1b578b9cee30 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x4a58af6e8093f9f495354b2be5e2d57f62cee92dab3e1e76a55f51c801756ca9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 1 | jamaica-house-of-representatives-election-winner | Will PNP (People’s National Party) win the most seats in the 2025 Jamaica House of Representatives election? | 76,115,407 | 76,115,407 |
af2c134316375944680694b03fd3e4a66c0db39a | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0xe5e3e312e8b6da9a502422438d6dfca96cf0d83612afb05ea57182adc589744e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 0.999034 | how-many-jobs-added-in-august-643 | Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in August? | 76,115,407 | 76,115,407 |
f91a766f511935824a8940f07d47313187d861e3 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0xf236e6e0a2a364caf5c46d017c9ea0ae50b603a226d24bf5502955b2b3f5188a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | no | 1 | august-unemployment-rate | Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | 76,115,407 | 76,115,407 |
fa62700d626bd74ae12b88e34867bdac21e18878 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0xf2b8ef9a91b83147461d7ffd387677a64700d16391fc8440404aa10d0ba4221a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 1 | august-unemployment-rate | Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.4%? | 76,115,407 | 76,115,407 |
6d2f94eb7e6b17918f4d3d13da7803f4659cf014 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0xc60076b8a299000e668c354b5ef7f180253be03d6584bcd3657ed685cdd440be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | no | 1 | norway-parliamentary-election-winner | Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election? | 76,274,044 | 76,274,044 |
dca01be554820accf08c32e96098f43064144369 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x33fe7b7933535d7673a701966f7a5996b93e79520dde51bf882e6b3cce76ed00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-august | Will a dozen eggs be below $3.00 in August? | 76,289,314 | 76,289,314 |
deece3b2cb353d5d20965fdcfb2edf39822f09b0 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x631dca611418c93fc87f4cb8dfd4d9431e23aafb4c942b881a906bd7bd2d8123 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 0.99951 | august-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in August? | 76,326,713 | 76,326,713 |
873d80e53406a485cda3480e01d6eb5d9d750ff6 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x83d4c41e3e1f630e916a9108aebbc10d4b05d31f2f0333e5aa0cc0611389920e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 1 | august-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in August? | 76,326,713 | 76,326,713 |
126c9879ff59887544d6542b381574e10456574c | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x93ae0bd274982c8c08581bc3ef1fa143e1294a6326d2a2eec345515a2cb15620 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 1 | august-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in August? | 76,326,713 | 76,326,713 |
168972e56ee345fd8afaff5ca7755fe2b59bc7f0 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0xe2c486555a303e0a31c161a0d59955b937455c14db0fc7bdd424d163379d9300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 1 | august-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in August? | 76,326,713 | 76,326,713 |
626846a881111583e0389765e19eb9f9b2fbe65f | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0xe0c6d489a1b98413168f333afe14a0d278f0114ef829f9e36fd8db3670d5568b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UK strike on Iran before July? | Event: uk-strike-on-iran-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–2... | yes | 1 | august-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? | 76,326,725 | 76,326,725 |
f8c6c81da331d8798567f858bcc1518ec0950548 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x3240cbacafecc7a8aaead34f3104ed7ad8dd6544c5d47ccf2bd400ac29b3e252 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla deliver 300000-325000 vehicles in Q2? | Event: tesla-deliveries-this-quarter-676 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–216 votes? | Event: how-many-votes-will-reconciliation-bill-get-in-the-house | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | chess-fide-grand-swiss-winner | Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament? | 76,516,415 | 76,516,415 |
316ae191cd7f9a09303e9d7295ff7e0bb2d8761f | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x47b3f007d1e03dc16dea336bf5a195c6a3c3f55b5fc1fda9f827f01c32b23c35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–216 votes? | Event: how-many-votes-will-reconciliation-bill-get-in-the-house | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 213–214 votes? | Event: how-many-votes-will-reconciliation-bill-get-in-the-house | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-norwegian-parliamentary-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be more than 84%? | 76,516,415 | 76,516,415 |
47931b066ed4f2db47b83704a8bc4af8037e5bb9 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0xb4b77b422cb5be1a2f9f0ed99e523d615e6f6b6d7e2fd0e15ded71b8ea55bac3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 213–214 votes? | Event: how-many-votes-will-reconciliation-bill-get-in-the-house | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? | Event: malawi-presidential-election-981 | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-norwegian-parliamentary-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 81 and 84%? | 76,516,415 | 76,516,415 |
a2cedfa79c25e192881113439652fef18d0ecccf | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x0bb0c2f605d342f1d01d3406c4ee5973a073fdc35bde91f663b64a97d56bc50b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? | Event: malawi-presidential-election-981 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LDP hold the second most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | Event: japan-house-of-councillors-electio... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-norwegian-parliamentary-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 78 and 81%? | 76,516,592 | 76,516,592 |
687faf953bdabfc14ad819b4fa62dbb91e134aed | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x7c035106a36638fa4a21b17522b152a2b4f818af871d62a4057bf0a9cef118eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will LDP hold the second most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | Event: japan-house-of-councillors-election-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lando Norris finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | Event: f1-drivers-champion-... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-norwegian-parliamentary-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 75 and 78%? | 76,516,592 | 76,516,592 |
77ed6f48c20183b5c8d8aae69fac02aa4be7947d | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x5a1f3227c46d642f509b98a8aac69916c4d32821f6f6c8c9ef865cb24a4d99e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | Event: f1-drivers-champion-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 8.637447605243628e-05
2. Question: Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | Event: will-a-new-country-join-the-abraham-accords-in-2025 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | korea-open-winner | Will Barbora Krejcikova win the 2025 WTA Korea Open? | 76,673,935 | 76,673,935 |
6aa0c60bde729ec6873f7c41b4e0fcec6bb10189 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x26172b28bdae811eabc9deb8f680b96831877d01c7d54e5e73bcc61c4d19d3b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | Event: will-a-new-country-join-the-abraham-accords-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 5.501597516666936e-05
2. Question: Jony Ive out at OpenAI before August? | Event: jony-ive-out-at-openai-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3... | yes | 0.393939 | korea-open-winner | Will Iga Swiatek win the 2025 WTA Korea Open? | 76,719,543 | 76,727,031 |
86110d59f4953fcff41dc0d61b6daa72fe50de67 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x26dd09a2d0e6fb6c1b631b1acb0625e6b1f197166b060a605429d5a961787e5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Jony Ive out at OpenAI before August? | Event: jony-ive-out-at-openai-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before August? | Event: will-elon-musk-unfollow-donald-trump-before-august | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: AI model... | no | 1 | intervision-winner-2025 | Will Belarus win Intervision 2025? | 76,719,568 | 76,719,568 |
68b8d9bc9b7438fee25af124206475628cdfb4a9 | 0x1237d0dbe4ea22337bf82bc3fb36e81b708306af | 0x2995f1399883f5059b8493f9bce5bebedd28d818ce2fee1bbdda1ac933ce1f2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before August? | Event: will-elon-musk-unfollow-donald-trump-before-august | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025? | Event: ai-model-scores-90-on-frontiermath-benchmark-in-2025 | Choice: yes | C... | no | 1 | intervision-winner-2025 | Will China win Intervision 2025? | 76,719,568 | 76,719,568 |
cb6c37a15e2fb2853fbb1a41b6818d6b7ebb2018 | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0xaf2193cd6b091db90642fb9b9fd7f3c4a1c280373357081ec68c9841e864b207 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
Event: bolivia-presidential-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0.004996 | bolivia-presidential-election | Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | 73,732,736 | 73,768,667 |
2b34bb449a5a72f113110debe7f71646a6a89fc4 | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0xc15a24d1576b84a0ae8896d2e2f89d33cf2ab84e20c358269945725204ba2442 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004995630717066485
Target market:
Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
Event: bolivia-presidential-election
Pre... | yes | 1 | bolivia-presidential-election | Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | 73,888,024 | 73,888,024 |
2236e94dc92a21f4263b470e40057414020a9a3b | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0x64e5c4a981829672c89460959404e89a208aa2dcf04a86de075e69d80b383070 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004995630717066485
2. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes |... | reds | 1 | mlb-phi-cin-2025-08-11 | Phillies vs. Reds | 75,032,594 | 75,032,594 |
7674cae5fcb70b2f5957d275641340cc6e7fc79f | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0x1d803b27eaf949abf4683b7f3807f66725cf9fc7e60a5a57710ccc48b535e392 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004995630717066485
2. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | ucl-kay-cel-2025-08-26 | Will FC Kairat Almaty vs. Celtic end in a draw? | 75,716,360 | 75,716,360 |
e6a0ebc9344ee3ab7060adba1c5c5bd1b64b0469 | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0x13503e5bb3c94645d04fb97420328413ae86996a825c5a5a82d1ba221b00aa71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004995630717066485
2. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-bri-2025-09-13 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-09-13? | 76,434,757 | 76,434,757 |
230bf6662693a240cd04ad8cbd1052e60aa96875 | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0x9f41a3e4a2ef548cf207c22a48dbaf73e28dda5ec014c145217f428aaf3769e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004995630717066485
2. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,591,624 | 76,591,624 |
268e324af3f02d7e8ed968cb7961ba0192bbc0bf | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0x9fa802f417e5b7bfcaae371395a41c863bda969e5ad995043b73add73e0d33e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004995630717066485
2. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | uel-crv-clt-2025-09-24 | Will Crvena Zvezda win on 2025-09-24? | 76,875,928 | 76,875,928 |
b812a5067d065685351e676895a5b1507afdbfb8 | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0x363930b3c2dea29633227b855d45792dce08080a4b469a2aec3d7384209ba33f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004995630717066485
2. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | fl1-lil-lyo-2025-09-28 | Will Lille OSC win on 2025-09-28? | 77,021,766 | 77,021,766 |
b70ed8853bcce18f4eaef0a46ebcf69e44a27ebe | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0xf52cc444115aeb1fdead4413e7c7c122fd0c7952a8bf2de55611f34365207eb2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004995630717066485
2. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | lal-bar-rso-2025-09-28 | Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-28? | 77,021,766 | 77,021,766 |
8848c0ebdaaebcd44b47729ff1aafbe82c38b785 | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0x08fd8c7cfce5d959368b3b6bffb4e503c17b7cd6099c770a46ca296baa12ddf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004995630717066485
2. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | ucl-kay-rma-2025-09-30 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30? | 77,105,219 | 77,105,219 |
cd6ea6e1666d1accebc92a7df88067e81a323e8b | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0x5521f8479da844c2c52d2bd58f3e436f4d7e1d7873219ec8cb7d3fccc02dabc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004995630717066485
2. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Will Olympiakos Piraeus win on 2025-10-01? | 77,160,678 | 77,160,678 |
5d69b0db910baa46bf430732336dc31c3a0d2075 | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0xf23cfb56d69b665c9ea431be9d5e4661d511f0fe5b858966673e1cb2282612b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004995630717066485
2. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | 77,160,678 | 77,160,678 |
ba387398a3edb236b613c17b682674c5b59aac18 | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0x98ebd6b95a36d3f9a8a3a27b40c8221c3e3e8866a17b66aa2e58d4c0e8999f3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004995630717066485
2. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | uel-stuk-ran-2025-10-02 | Will Rangers win on 2025-10-02? | 77,201,459 | 77,201,459 |
ecf45f1e776abaeaeb9ba489cd32b9f2c8650451 | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0xbcc3e481cf52864005e6a29179838cb63ba071cb668759d8be3654a5279266c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004995630717066485
2. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | uel-plz-mal-2025-10-02 | Will Plzen vs. Malmo FF end in a draw? | 77,201,459 | 77,201,459 |
a13b4473825779f469eed5b621147873db12a092 | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0xd0a279e2d203f498451c789eb76067adb9591f852232aed5e1bdaca8c367ea86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004995630717066485
2. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | uel-clt-bra-2025-10-02 | Will Celtic vs. SC Braga end in a draw? | 77,201,459 | 77,201,459 |
29674a3154fe576809e1cf5691cf767bb427c092 | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0xe5c604fe44fd824d7de814e460431d6637cb74251d06a89065bd2dbcca4bc4e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004995630717066485
2. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | uel-fcsb-byn-2025-10-02 | Will FCSB win on 2025-10-02? | 77,201,459 | 77,201,459 |
410e2fc6d0dd2804574aa8bf1f8892513ecbf75f | 0x123aa6cf5a02ee0e4309e1ab18c22714413ee801 | 0xed1fc16c1df1267a1da15c4fc18759922d7e44e14b0143e7a7ebf2f3af946579 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.004995630717066485
2. Question: Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Event: bolivia-presidential-election | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | uel-bas-stu-2025-10-02 | Will FC Basel win on 2025-10-02? | 77,201,459 | 77,201,459 |
4949380758d7c76e5e821ce0e570ba449ce44158 | 0x1242fd34686528f2c611630fc91093b3eed08dfe | 0xf48f79d8e60ab1efa76e53bec8c005611bfdc097cc0e51dc2f612709c04f5acf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?
Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | 67,561,476 | 67,561,476 |
39695fc0db7e0b2ec0303b7d47f90248b7b6f52a | 0x1242fd34686528f2c611630fc91093b3eed08dfe | 0x10f421f4361560c91cf38fae403c04b4c66845072b8fce52ebc912438bbbd0c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?
Event: esports-world-cup-cs2
Predict the user's choice and confiden... | yes | 1 | esports-world-cup-cs2 | Will Spirit win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | 75,489,201 | 75,489,201 |
e9d31b6f69043d0fe7fa5b04075df7f5e27d5d89 | 0x1242fd34686528f2c611630fc91093b3eed08dfe | 0xff32df78896914e7d0c550c7d4eea46280a9f3e866aa28eb89b42bfa4fc45e7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Qu... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-ethereum-hit-august-18-24 | Will Ethereum reach $4500 August 18–24? | 75,526,115 | 75,526,115 |
4e4b6bc6474acbe538e4f661d478f1b62099c6fb | 0x1242fd34686528f2c611630fc91093b3eed08dfe | 0x82cc8d4a8b28e96f3d01388167b2fa76f8d21de125d2db440eed9a13830e45d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | drx | 1 | league-of-legends-dplus-kia-vs-drx-565 | League of Legends: Dplus KIA vs. DRX | 75,526,423 | 75,526,423 |
758465b2d78ef44b0c23a954fd4db79feb1ee1a7 | 0x1242fd34686528f2c611630fc91093b3eed08dfe | 0xab78cf6dbd510af9e30c52655d03c13a9e53425821015c8787a7b69232a3ab85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | cubs | 1 | mlb-chc-atl-2025-09-10 | Cubs vs. Braves | 76,332,598 | 76,332,598 |
416c1fbc371c6dc269f3377166ec6ed3e41bd6f4 | 0x1242fd34686528f2c611630fc91093b3eed08dfe | 0x79b8ee9f7c2e6d1166df977325ebd012717dae747ac2d8e0a1592d98f48f3c31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-523 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45 million views on day 1? | 76,456,377 | 76,456,377 |
5c274f945a476c9e247335251f2b5ba0a6a3edbe | 0x1242fd34686528f2c611630fc91093b3eed08dfe | 0x8f8603f40fcf96f2eac60e646215bcc1e8a3253148894508b2a89da0931c5bc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-september-16 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 16? | 76,534,767 | 76,534,767 |
abf0a74e3037387ea0224fc7b05f49346d40bfdc | 0x1242fd34686528f2c611630fc91093b3eed08dfe | 0x3bacb765b4b30303a22bcf1f61372b13363bcd3742c4a72d85ca2c62b2edf49a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | ucl-bay-cfc-2025-09-17 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-17? | 76,579,954 | 76,579,954 |
d57bb3d4f8c588b98c7d8b2870cdf29f5f466581 | 0x1242fd34686528f2c611630fc91093b3eed08dfe | 0x47a22b65fe18040f54a9204ff9509e07ac52f9d421cac20e5ed3a226ca94834c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | marlins | 1 | mlb-mia-col-2025-09-17 | Marlins vs. Rockies | 76,598,180 | 76,598,180 |
ac1e8a1d0a0c1fe2d125b8742443afc4a94e1e6a | 0x1242fd34686528f2c611630fc91093b3eed08dfe | 0x086efb44437dd578f602273764db2ef4bfd4f57f776fffa66456467d8c411838 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | reds | 1 | mlb-chc-cin-2025-09-18 | Cubs vs. Reds | 76,625,544 | 76,625,544 |
b02b0baf4c91f09cd058cc85b5f639697b233f08 | 0x1242fd34686528f2c611630fc91093b3eed08dfe | 0xc964405e53d4e01e6c1a2b6e9303bf0d77f0600f6fc7a391532c01919f0c535d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | ucl-new-bar-2025-09-18 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? | 76,625,815 | 76,625,815 |
bacf8d4dd13a4bd815f713281240e8130439dc33 | 0x1242fd34686528f2c611630fc91093b3eed08dfe | 0x259182a4a8da9964b26f38cc157127e7a345cc55e0daa9b0604326a8aee8de9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | epl-sun-ast-2025-09-21 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-09-21? | 76,741,716 | 76,741,716 |
1ad6cc7b6229e74ec263d7bd6245cb5628894923 | 0x1242fd34686528f2c611630fc91093b3eed08dfe | 0x27fa002bf1e91268fa0b4232b3d35892f15f7b6c26af17749a10ec3a8c218b53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | bolivia-presidential-election | Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | 77,944,548 | 77,944,548 |
f20dc270709be7db26b7a1b245580aa4ee208a30 | 0x1242fd34686528f2c611630fc91093b3eed08dfe | 0xc15a24d1576b84a0ae8896d2e2f89d33cf2ab84e20c358269945725204ba2442 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | bolivia-presidential-election | Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | 77,944,581 | 77,944,581 |
ea0cbe91597936ce58fa1f5b13b548404e059bbe | 0x1242fd34686528f2c611630fc91093b3eed08dfe | 0x4e6b1d5ac20ca7a018a1cd5cd706d67895dc50eeca1f2886fb71e51299e8c3fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spirit win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | Event: esports-world-cup-cs2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | nof1ai-trading-competition-biggest-loser | Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 lose the NOF1.ai competition? | 78,628,559 | 78,628,559 |
08ff96fe71b263782661819d59d57c6b872f5eec | 0x1261de7152303d63a67b55e596f340b039fa81bf | 0x95aa184e6468861d7438bc0a80b43a3db1628ea86baa8dd7c6cdbf5089891912 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C?
Event: december-2024-temperature-increase-c
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | 67,003,302 | 67,003,302 |
5e7f10f4ef3fa20c31fd9e1d815980c856ad5625 | 0x1261de7152303d63a67b55e596f340b039fa81bf | 0x04e07c6085d96ecc1ac7568d6cb640f09e4d300a25afc763b67f15d8f2c8597c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?
Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025
Predict the us... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | 67,560,164 | 67,560,164 |
a763f1586c417b77558879f20e22c89ed864a2c4 | 0x1261de7152303d63a67b55e596f340b039fa81bf | 0x19ceaa8e4dc8e9146fd9a82dda67a11c3fbfde4425e699ee46362a3ced83ab87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 67,560,164 | 67,560,164 |
5ce6b3a6588590130052a59452bb1411f83b1d5f | 0x1261de7152303d63a67b55e596f340b039fa81bf | 0x64123306a517e078fa636231a9cc9339a46bcfe3fadf62c92fdb031881c5d0d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | 67,560,164 | 67,560,164 |
9a1dde8ed04cdf09238b08778d890440e6e3e879 | 0x1261de7152303d63a67b55e596f340b039fa81bf | 0x7883a3c40bb01cbd3b9ec9e3b73d75af705e300c9369f27178739cf3f4fa089a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? | 67,560,164 | 67,560,164 |
7fb3b193862468078be3a327a2f0aa4d244de828 | 0x1261de7152303d63a67b55e596f340b039fa81bf | 0x3edc5c75b3b0d978db4bcccc24278b3a985347ef3e4f8f1c765c287e321f957a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | bafta-award-best-actor | Will Hugh Grant win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Heretic"? | 68,619,211 | 68,619,211 |
16b53b908c184b20b74557969dfc7aa7515a3d7c | 0x1261de7152303d63a67b55e596f340b039fa81bf | 0x83c4642631a324475498c1a0db59dad159b11e860d3ad11c1c17c9215255c2d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | bafta-award-best-actor | Will Sebastian Stan win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Apprentice"? | 68,619,211 | 68,619,211 |
cf49ed1dc524ed12200f9c1495820f59365ed108 | 0x1261de7152303d63a67b55e596f340b039fa81bf | 0xabed6391f6878d0c1fc50326290fa83fa359b87913af278589c4b0975b2edd9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | sag-award-best-cast-in-a-comedy-series | Will "Only Murders in the Building" win Best Cast in a Comedy Series at the 2025 SAG Awards? | 68,619,211 | 68,619,211 |
6e594d6b5d0de9207bb9b996b6891cf27eff9553 | 0x1261de7152303d63a67b55e596f340b039fa81bf | 0xad0ba38e1e6b0467002e19dcbe91534cf5bf6152975b077f1f25cc22a1618723 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | love-hurts-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8-11m? | 68,619,211 | 68,619,211 |
65dedfb10e6ff55ceabab9a9f903d53fac350e1d | 0x1261de7152303d63a67b55e596f340b039fa81bf | 0xb26705174733a4fb8faf5ecd8761e008279b0df6c7fbd0a0272f6ff626523e93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | oscars-best-international-feature-film | Will "I'm Still Here" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,619,211 | 68,619,211 |
7e9acf4a089aa6e381b17078f406057cd160f206 | 0x1261de7152303d63a67b55e596f340b039fa81bf | 0xbd0c9068086cf2b0f272495792c48f97a7562bd490ed610fff54d2d3e2d0a367 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | who-will-win-the-beast-games | Will JC (Player 566) win the Beast Games? | 68,619,211 | 68,619,211 |
24245c6e280998b1e78a5572defe1a1ffebc14f4 | 0x1261de7152303d63a67b55e596f340b039fa81bf | 0x00859065091b1959e4d6e68555d57a511a03775f828f7d24a7a85b93847b8a9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | what-will-kanyes-token-ticker-be | Will Kanye name his token Portnoy? | 69,798,518 | 69,798,518 |
c85ccf4f496046faa66faa6c83895e1c04128506 | 0x1261de7152303d63a67b55e596f340b039fa81bf | 0x00deba4c08e43577f736cb89b6763dd6a2e54f22b884939924abbbde2d3af9c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | what-will-kanyes-token-ticker-be | Will Kanye name his token SWASTIKA? | 69,798,518 | 69,798,518 |
99fb91c6fe5a4aa54b72a830b8c4942de983ffc3 | 0x1261de7152303d63a67b55e596f340b039fa81bf | 0xef87bd79f691a4cef41fbdaef6a3f9a8b779246b0ad0ba98aaf3d1b39a94107d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | what-will-kanyes-token-ticker-be | Will Kanye name his token Nazi? | 69,798,518 | 69,798,518 |
a5167eb9a8ceeb3bf5eb42287b4fd4c16562090c | 0x1261de7152303d63a67b55e596f340b039fa81bf | 0x64eb7f8db68317bb4d912a89b5a9da0b9e0c3c6614edd415d1e6a01ea50e7f06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | what-will-kanyes-token-ticker-be | Will Kanye name his token Hitler? | 69,798,520 | 69,798,520 |
6b9f44ac0a3416fce4655b54805318b4b086d845 | 0x1261de7152303d63a67b55e596f340b039fa81bf | 0xa45c7622a9aa6003c5c7b09634bb20c6fbb60fdbc1a25e9180bc18dc0bee1b15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | Event: december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | what-will-kanyes-token-ticker-be | Will Kanye name his token Swastica? | 69,798,520 | 69,798,520 |
babe77baa757e5a98bdf722de9e28003b6897346 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x5f33d07295aae77250dd571b378232138c8df1269efea0e69e23cd31a8f354b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta?
Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | 63,522,744 | 63,522,744 |
69622a93853a817455405d06fd730097a81ca8e4 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x82df938a34ae69d5394b1bd5df4e01c59ab2958ff386ed1597393c55054721fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille?
Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: ... | yes | 1 | ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | 63,522,744 | 63,522,744 |
9209feac2a6d9b21aadfdffcb624bd540c41f453 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0xcde8e68786cf59952cfeea7923bed1ec65029019f934b817c32ea856fc09a77f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and ... | yes | 1 | ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-juventus | Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end in a draw? | 63,522,744 | 63,522,744 |
4986651839c74e95ab6f3ff45d3ec7ecf997617c | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x01876ed8ee02399812dc73f8ee9682dd787eb9a53972b4ebaa6f09ca7eee5045 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-bou-2024-10-26 | Will Villa win on 2024-10-26? | 63,526,929 | 63,526,929 |
ac1b857809e67a7db823fab7b3770340c92e8eae | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0xad1fbae2af7d7b5b1d892eb1f4eda5732c816fe42d823f9151d8d28908186b85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-bri-2024-11-02 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-02? | 63,968,163 | 63,968,163 |
3471a53f711da5a0e2cb6c0ad4d9e20c5dce8692 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x3573e0dab40fd7b6bec34f8b81ec16e766d536455ef535380fe4b02a206d047a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-liv-2024-10-27 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-27? | 63,994,974 | 63,994,974 |
cf3284b4f362f97939490b825844efd6ca9cc818 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x973f3a132b52b0b590b3371003d4e32b8dd77159423a3a1331c06aa7d715284f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-mac-2024-11-02 | Will Man City win on 2024-11-02? | 63,994,974 | 63,994,974 |
7c3f97c72583a9f5024283dc10cd7beccac91780 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0xb43c1fe4bf4da3069852f3adf0bcc5949fb53ab095f07a32f2891c142832152c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | ucl-red-star-belgrade-vs-barcelona | Will Barcelona beat Red Star Belgrade? | 63,994,974 | 63,994,974 |
900b866a395497d401c112bd34eb5fefabe11898 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0xe169048eb73a341d003738eb33f6af46cd332f6ba692ccbb9b616e550b083a15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | 63,994,974 | 63,994,974 |
976c2aa066886d137e5597b20dde08bdda3cf103 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x7b30559109e5a8edb0aea12bf209e7242328d0f650a876dfb39b0d5e5d345160 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | 66,982,694 | 66,982,694 |
bfb558f8aa2f52a6d51276115fe375817ea60ab6 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x5b88ff928cd088a2dd00ba536aedb382f8b11bb550836f7b1c7defd06e66656e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | uel-manchester-united-vs-rangers | Will Rangers beat Manchester United? | 67,845,928 | 67,845,928 |
ad33988b17c1c8ddd456d0884ed2e280b8c577ea | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0xb0c561798cf9e43792baa231a4246d99880b6facb6621fed108b6a8a56e164df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | ucl-paris-saint-germain-vs-manchester-city | Will Manchester City beat Paris Saint-Germain? | 67,845,928 | 67,845,928 |
7b9e33de976bf3003d6929207c3d3c301bf8e92e | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x868441dc24dea77e44c60ffdc315b40ac88531a0a439c0e7077cb9246cf108c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-liv-2024-12-07 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07? | 68,410,210 | 68,410,210 |
b689c7cafe5cf3131a9ded26fbd10bc5728f6bbf | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0xa76d9476f9db2220a2fe156ee54f586f31c2e1234e4b1b5f1ed6e23a67d0173d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | uel-rso-mun-2025-03-06 | Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-03-06? | 68,750,010 | 68,750,010 |
69d45d3f088dc62bf4bc86c305e51f2088928cf8 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0xcaba2507c8ce55330e8069c0f7631e56909ef5c9ac06a3e561ab615115c992d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | 68,809,762 | 68,809,762 |
d2d0927b2b7688d9013375eed36e0163a4037ac9 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x87ef660e2a32e65d5544e8db65e2743c33e6ba3ca5a92dcea228387e9e605792 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-eve-2025-03-08 | Will Everton win on 2025-03-08? | 68,840,805 | 68,840,805 |
65c8ad434c0d309f21fda86d7be4256c21e8d66d | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x6d17971cfea990442802982408a4fbcf181f550bdad95aed07dd002b00d74dcb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-ars-2025-03-09 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-09? | 68,895,563 | 68,895,563 |
d43491cc874de37ebde2f2286f11ca25f967dd45 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0xd2179a1e776c2bf2eb5aec9ce4da495cda2e5d8c727666c292213a26fe93f635 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-bou-2025-03-09 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-03-09? | 68,895,565 | 68,895,565 |
10f6fc272186b455cda77f993475d0d32987de9d | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x5a5891fef3ceb7ef471bab5a2bc6062e1bb5e583060c2c089143d26715074a04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | ucl-mad-rma-2025-03-12 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-12? | 69,815,682 | 69,815,682 |
c847803ae567784440f7c838fce87699d53d6fa2 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x7a7e0764886a2ecc5a43bb7dd0617195fa75064c7ce3d58f9a5f18a4d3865831 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Will Lille win on 2025-03-12? | 69,815,682 | 69,815,682 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.