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stringlengths
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15.3k
label_choice
stringclasses
913 values
label_confidence
float64
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80M
stance_last_block
int64
30.6M
80M
d0491e8e4a29a2f17501884f838b1260f81b7f10
0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62
0xacc45b780a7d4859d28d0f1b33eedea94f8fcbb915c6dc02885088c4fb156bc3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Mar 28? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: W...
no
1
uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-09
Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-09-09?
76,275,031
76,275,031
0cc059d77a682853a2b43831943070b69444540c
0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62
0x5d3d649a8363f04140dd8b994414ea336f67184589cd2881758c4c7be4671ce1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Mar 28? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Mar 28? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the...
no
1
what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-september
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September?
77,121,680
77,121,680
d780e8486dfb1ef0bbef3eba681f4a9570d113ff
0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62
0x5084f8d643efb8e3b6106a8984245479e766216c2a13dafbb113592811ac67d2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Mar 28? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $82000 on April 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the...
no
1
uef-kaz-lie-2025-10-10
Will Liechtenstein win on 2025-10-10?
77,509,782
77,509,782
44ba6cc3410d992006a4a874b0fc6508f85c4cd6
0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62
0x93c3ea7084b14595ff62cc850fc40b5760b2b06c62f96d08fac4d1a8fef7a71d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $82000 on April 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the...
yes
1
uef-ger-lux-2025-10-10
Will Germany win on 2025-10-10?
77,544,307
77,544,307
0537825a82568784228c9177593900a89b154c5e
0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62
0x77927e301fed9124438e246f70ecd4a3160ad0aa7ea5fc091bd1bd1211d46be4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the...
no
1
uef-smr-cyp-2025-10-12
Will San Marino win on 2025-10-12?
77,597,590
77,597,590
9fa9c2de2844cef13bbd2cd371268e7bc75b1522
0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62
0x28f7d60ec393a41e36519e17ad542c60e0312f7acff711b0df6b609b5112905c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $89000 on Apr 25? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will th...
no
1
uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-10-13?
77,668,860
77,668,860
3b5326f638acfde249178813ea0f37a3d9650fd5
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0xc5bb8aabf50ca7230c63be0a900fe0ac4018f36ab6dd0aeebd9e59beaf08c415
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Event: belarus-presidential-election Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
yes
1
belarus-presidential-election
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?
67,315,727
67,315,727
538cac8a6d362811f48cc36415c3a664bb1fcedc
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x93b9a0b92b572e7ce67a78af85d8b37460a94db29a50f923fc31e8eb891a566a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? Event: jimmy-butler-trade Predict the user's choice and confidence ...
no
1
jimmy-butler-trade
Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers?
67,595,091
67,595,091
4c920b24d68eaf7d9a3c8430d4b00064fe2ba500
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x9ac4df341a085d95b140921056e5b221e21ad05d090c8567c39cea071bc01303
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Questi...
no
1
jimmy-butler-trade
Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Orlando Magic?
67,595,091
67,595,091
55eb6172af2f085e2508986e1fcbf7655c4db949
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0xddf49ac45f081424c0850388a6a312f03d67a2edd2341c08f4b6bbbea3b05bd6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
yes
0.744043
jimmy-butler-trade
Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors?
67,595,091
67,595,091
905992cdaa7752b4fba23f0497d36c3c283b5b62
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x086becf59481be2a94e8e5eaf5869ee4847b0329c7714fb6232cdbc37e74d433
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
yes
1
super-bowl-lix-first-touchdown-scorer
Will Jalen Hurts score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?
67,751,550
67,751,550
41576813626cb7c5394dc47ac9700a3100d2882d
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x1d8821183636eb50838d5fb9bd7ee7b5a5d7c37a43eca8402a09d3a248a73717
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
no
1
super-bowl-lix-mvp
Will Saquon Barkley win Super Bowl LIX MVP?
67,751,949
67,751,949
375837da4829804ff0c3c3720fe68e4a1efb978c
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x4aada14f602de551f597754771533856529302960b981d210d0a08e8409cae03
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
no
1
super-bowl-lix-margin-of-victory
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl LIX by 19-21 points?
67,776,914
67,776,914
a001f418ad305c33e2c6b8763b6f095cc1fc1ffb
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0xc6ef1b74a2e89a432702fa6ad8c38d10079505a13b4fbae3d0c1e42a9effb9c7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
no
1
super-bowl-lix-margin-of-victory
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl LIX by 13-15 points?
67,776,914
67,776,914
64b9b839c4a66f4608f90c3c6054101c3aaa5e9a
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x2eb101521d4c37667666a3a007c6d89acda6c7f54a444d14c61b6e74f1553253
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
yes
1
nba-3-point-contest-champion
Will Tyler Herro win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?
67,988,539
67,988,539
391949912af676369f4ac2ad5f64ed1d109d8317
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x5d1325b6db95d001c0aeec176d6afbb4ec622913d87657ff5d2d5c6ebe44d727
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
no
1
nba-3-point-contest-champion
Will Damian Lillard win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?
67,988,539
67,988,539
e80ddc1089bb9b38529736dbeb9a7496be185ace
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0xa65cc5fad8146d3a0b591bdbb36b32cf09e0188985b31604c415b306511e6efc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
no
1
nba-3-point-contest-champion
Will Norman Powell win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?
67,988,539
67,988,539
0b049e55bca10a9fcfe1d9b90cabe6c2ab677c13
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0xd11af3000ac76dbe8eeb5d0d53f5f1aa4bb8d47ee467ddc7d9fddfaf43e387d0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
no
1
2025-nba-all-star-game-winner
Will Team Kenny win the 2025 NBA All Star Game Tournament?
68,057,118
68,057,118
05db0cfec56562d2353fc99f8d73f6eb2b2496fc
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x544367f38cd54c7b61d9fbee9e02a50dbb5fdc714e15f89702f5fdac0bd58100
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
raptors
1
nba-cha-tor-2025-03-28
Hornets vs. Raptors
69,629,643
69,629,643
ea317273e899e6d3c3bceedb55ada2bbc948c163
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x737d3100e6db98c32e1ebeaab1cc4fc7ed357a3856d1c83022f16bb36d390d87
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
heat
1
nba-mia-phi-2025-03-29
Heat vs. 76ers
69,672,825
69,672,825
e2efa840d18c251dd8f1ba4ae5095348a2b78e09
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x97d63388980db00e906296f9507bfb0b3526cdd9dffc9c7d208638f0926fb7d0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
knicks
1
nba-phi-nyk-2025-04-01
76ers vs. Knicks
69,791,634
69,791,634
b48a3b5401bb42c71540481e767ceada25c2904a
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x45c6d0cd91564907075f7e09321b8f056f0a97e47c74d18b2aefe67b3887fd36
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
warriors
1
nba-gsw-lal-2025-04-03
Warriors vs. Lakers
69,881,149
69,881,149
412077af8c62bbd5b8887a45ff12a59936af5f22
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x68fdee23335b6d3e726e0e250c7784fd901da093e3d6eec26bb355b2a22c0fc3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
celtics
1
nba-phx-bos-2025-04-04
Suns vs. Celtics
69,913,590
69,913,590
b00dd2ab2f56c6b5d61046072710b5dce54c08c9
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x96ff95a86ddf9e66aac0f29546858bfed45e07172dfd72e9e11ecdc2b64e6a06
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
spurs
1
nba-sas-por-2025-04-06
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers
69,996,397
69,996,397
1d21d8a84a011a57ca3742fb3870358c2ea637ee
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x4fd2adc4e3f7954b4211db930b486a30b5d7b8d4b0818ad3fa62dd2efbbac510
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
yes
1
elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?
70,190,083
70,190,083
94d72709912799c6c39447555bd4ebcf9dc987d6
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x70593c79b4b41353f5a57fd1fd5770b518e957cd9b463b27981235b2cab3033c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
no
1
elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11?
70,190,083
70,190,083
45716c5dad60427749ed649d5c220b935d6a5149
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x75fe6b90aa8cb0f6eac518bf3f4e4069c0952fbceefd1f2f7c44956aaddb1e4e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
no
1
elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets
Will Elon tweet 190-199 times April 4 - 11?
70,190,083
70,190,083
515701f1f480b1a2a07840ce07b75d580f077554
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x7d1673f133fe70f1807a338834f1506c8e9a88894f573635b10b92927bed73d3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
yes
1
elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets
Will Elon tweet 180-189 times April 4 - 11?
70,190,083
70,190,083
e8a05b639493085c4f7607de957841bfc73f214e
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x923972b166bd5b7e49aab3e88d65c101163a09c32ef05ae76217b59f493f23a3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
no
1
elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets
Will Elon tweet 250 or more times April 4 - 11?
70,190,083
70,190,083
0995bd55b39c25ab61c0b7625c34ba8e54e3f6d5
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0xd3774ae60217db10f22773ff8184984e7875ab0be87e82b1a37148eaacd99a64
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
yes
1
nba-rebounds-leader
Will another player lead the NBA in Rebounds?
70,341,262
70,341,262
8f233e41897a4ef2ab88df0a03e6bd1c86a6c456
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0xd964541735abd3bc6ba80de60dbef71f404a061d34e3e271b3bef1e21192c0ea
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
yes
1
nba-scoring-leader
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring?
70,341,262
70,341,262
5f2433a4c57868ddd7aaebc836606b8b666f7609
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x307f1107750a342fce55b4ea3ef41b972321bd0ab8fbd77bbd47871f8ecf6692
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
no
1
nba-eastern-conference-champion
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference?
70,486,172
70,486,172
32eb23f65b7447baec268e7268fc5cf13ab86f81
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0xe2f8c219022a3f49c1ed46bba53bf1ef9386c3501fc90e004a5f047933af37e7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
no
1
nba-defensive-player-of-the-year
Will Jaren Jackson Jr. win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?
70,564,269
70,564,269
9aad859ee942fbd186fb031abe7df221bbb5cabd
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x90067275fc465aa256a334cfbb26cff984270d992adec51e06452fbf7151a0c3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
yes
1
nba-6th-man-of-the-year
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year?
70,639,539
70,639,539
3155a7822d5ba13885e3778a8dcf5ff24a99169f
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x1d18fd82acb4b0dec5d490499fbd067ae493c49f43fb9f79e122b5846f235274
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
yes
1
nba-rookie-of-the-year
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year?
70,923,895
70,923,895
4e67cf0760de0dc013c0710efa8d44719143493b
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x229cb5de8b5e690f950b34bfb79f1aae331680f522f6bed6f78229584237d2fe
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
no
1
nba-rookie-of-the-year
Will Jaylen Wells win NBA Rookie of the Year?
70,923,895
70,923,895
dc3b353eaaec5c4a63af1c817eb850662dcdda51
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x2c73aaf76c348146a9c57b2a4462a6f7ce5287c5e4f965c7e8ff9b19c8dc5710
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimm...
no
1
nba-rookie-of-the-year
Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year?
70,923,895
70,923,895
40a3a89b36c88a4d3f3aa0bb4d07678f8ada5877
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x5aebf0de3b3b325075f4fd813d2884f5706b0ea1434a4745897af941b3ed1e7f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Orlando Magic? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Gold...
yes
1
which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?
70,960,467
70,960,467
bf4557934ef3858be40eace2c6d109ca330df1d5
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x759f318ebb014c6792d50853e4e0eb0aa83a73f86285a82d15f724af667c9211
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Orlando Magic? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7440434653177762 3. Question: Will Jalen Hurts score ...
no
1
2025-madrid-open-winner-w
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2025 Women's Madrid Open?
70,960,467
70,960,467
800c7213f9bb8c699a2226c8eac46321fd141cbc
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x064faeffbdb8588cb3ebd3a5b9901da787fe010bdd0652a9809765055ac87a52
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7440434653177762 2. Question: Will Jalen Hurts score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: super-bowl-lix-first-touchdown-scorer | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Qu...
yes
1
2025-madrid-open-winner-w
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 Women's Madrid Open?
71,084,256
71,084,256
6202ce260859c529d1e2b5feb823a50f09717cad
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x08c62353a7b9be1cf70fd0777350c7472b305cc53c3d8a2e2966bc5b9d823a42
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Jalen Hurts score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: super-bowl-lix-first-touchdown-scorer | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Saquon Barkley win Super Bowl LIX MVP? | Event: super-bowl-lix-mvp | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the Eagles win Sup...
pacers
1
nba-playoffs-cavaliers-vs-pacers-to-advance
NBA Playoffs: Cavaliers vs. Pacers (To Advance)
71,497,059
71,497,059
81319a18db076e738ba28a592589723cae1559ab
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0xa0765b2b5b12f670962b43a6bdb43a0a732a147f0b07fa9be170127e8d3c53e6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Saquon Barkley win Super Bowl LIX MVP? | Event: super-bowl-lix-mvp | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the Eagles win Super Bowl LIX by 19-21 points? | Event: super-bowl-lix-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the Eagles win Super Bowl LIX by 1...
no
1
italy-grand-prix-winner
Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix?
71,685,892
71,685,892
86b68c28fcf927c1f6ff6d1f0f10921f47a7bebe
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0xec26bab2b368d7d7997215330cff36f9203d1b59e5f26a29db2902174a83334c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Eagles win Super Bowl LIX by 19-21 points? | Event: super-bowl-lix-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the Eagles win Super Bowl LIX by 13-15 points? | Event: super-bowl-lix-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Tyler Herro ...
no
1
2025-internazionali-bnl-ditalia-winner-m
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Internazionali BNL d'Italia?
71,685,892
71,685,892
d3eae474c2c9d70c8a3058290883f6475e3a9240
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x158c092e490c97319458037637e29c152e34bb89766fca194889f7add8239142
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Eagles win Super Bowl LIX by 13-15 points? | Event: super-bowl-lix-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tyler Herro win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Damian Lillard w...
no
1
nba-mvp-2024-25
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?
71,819,434
71,819,434
f72721fdc5fcae4e6bd0284096dd21820e15ca9a
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0x8725f5d1b5282496676283084cb54be91fac2ba380d951178d953e78d0c0c5ed
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Tyler Herro win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Damian Lillard win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Norman Powell win ...
no
0.170348
2025-french-open-winner
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open?
72,531,286
72,531,286
23db4822c32e470ff42b2d761dbbdb5296f7c704
0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe
0xb1d3425f59ceae2850755ae4f4c5c0d8cb46f4446e3fd191ee4077e0527202f8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Damian Lillard win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Norman Powell win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Team Kenny win th...
no
0.416417
2025-french-open-winner
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open?
72,531,286
72,531,286
bdfbf8f0a55da10215fdc0d7ac91e0ab4a8bce3c
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x145ff557ed79e625c505ba4119dbf10642e0990004ea51f690b35a18ebb8edb0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
no
1
epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21?
76,737,970
76,737,970
6a85777aa396cc6cf5fa13b2de576615a593a49c
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xd1c22676bbae4bbe809d8a561b6e3010d1717bf7fc059d9cbe6d3e74597a540f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confid...
no
1
epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27?
76,985,291
76,985,291
62c4d2b7059f28408fba069ad806f99a774a8c93
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x2f158da91342aa36b0d3cf443b779a746f50de2e6ba37d6c7efe24dc938b0588
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner ...
no
1
golf-ryder-cup-winner
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup?
77,040,321
77,040,321
6e6b15574499c4059387ad98e76cfe9be922afab
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xc35fa42e207ef1f97dea25b852e2678329c9344605ee6aa21667c5d57b2001f6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
yes
1
golf-ryder-cup-winner
Will Europe win the 2025 Ryder Cup?
77,040,363
77,040,363
eab4b806338eeed0725b14b2fcc2af974cc72651
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xe88a5efae0158b68c3c48439afe649f0e55426024aa6c91af57ba9b88dac9d9e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
yes
1
epl-bou-ful-2025-10-03
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-03?
77,228,218
77,228,218
b32a829b8f98937c3977b346a3a4f4a1c138bda1
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xebd74255ffe6a1229a422a53fca888018d5b490f1cea36b91c0e61a0eb46dfaf
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
brewers
1
mlb-chc-mil-2025-10-11
Cubs vs. Brewers
77,577,413
77,577,413
c328f3b6f5d1871e9dfa69bba41938ca9670ffd7
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x71dd4bb30879f07523f31b899294862a0ac4c3b521c8f7d4c216344ebc5765e7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
texans
1
nfl-sf-hou-2025-10-26
49ers vs. Texans
78,206,083
78,206,083
74c8ec51e3a4bed650e73bdae8e6d58c2face7d6
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xa7fcb875c42d31916caf1f58b053bf574846e326deda924373ba6243722e5b82
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
new mexico
0
cfb-nmx-unlv-2025-11-01
Spread: UNLV (-3.5)
78,458,346
78,471,079
2694e2881de18ab6b541c645395acf06273b1f14
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xe5d2ec653eaf22a3cee501bd18dbb0fbfb2ed82be66093771b55447a238406c1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
cowboys
0.000006
nfl-ari-dal-2025-11-03
Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)
78,546,560
78,546,560
7d4456a4ebc40079f18dcbb46a2cc2c1f03663d0
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xa2d859d57b3231fc7f9cc12ab63bc52b6ded8a3aea8cc306e3a140cf25cb6996
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
memphis
1
cfb-tulane-mphs-2025-11-07
Spread: Memphis (-3.5)
78,725,549
78,725,549
a92c2967c9b4db333a43d7ce7520d8217a260e3e
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x0687e55e4c537313a5d4ff0ee83f0286c819e12be0893349f760577f493c0194
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
falcons
1
nfl-atl-ind-2025-11-09
Spread: Colts (-6.5)
78,794,731
78,809,133
9b8855af5b29c80119ec6d4cff0ed6a9fdc01950
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xd1905e6cd12355f40696edeb01e703e3f827d7bf7771a54766f55130aea9df91
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
chargers
0
nfl-pit-lac-2025-11-09
Spread: Chargers (-3.5)
78,815,685
78,840,734
d1a447894997061f15852272ba2a0fa174db142b
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x23e6e6f8a327a41bad1282fdc34e846f52e73e390d44b004ac92a329766e2848
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
eagles
0
nfl-phi-gb-2025-11-10
Eagles vs. Packers
78,857,960
78,858,529
48112a7ba3b7a4f2096cc142a85ebc821c671131
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xcb3275fd4ca0879f01af6986eaf12eb385da9aa81182f185e0886ab706c80206
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
over
0
nhl-tor-bos-2025-11-11
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5
78,894,857
78,894,962
3c5983a8f80611d1267223b92ba13d581f8fec78
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x18e6256e103dfd176d96335763c9f70917d3255629c09c8a40cf180beb7f2686
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
tulsa
0.001217
cfb-oregst-tulsa-2025-11-15
Oregon State vs. Tulsa
79,048,560
79,060,904
42f457acb42def6ce621e728231fdc44fad5707f
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x5ce033e2cd7c428b1d431bbb994ec8c7ca408ba2afd8974fcf91e198155b1919
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
indiana
0
cfb-wisc-ind-2025-11-15
Spread: Indiana (-29.5)
79,056,147
79,056,147
7f63a174441c44e1f4c1521e339189ef9f282661
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xe1cf3458c0fab5246dbe7fa4b90a660db64e44907193ab102b7a53c2d87864ba
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
49ers
0.006129
nfl-sf-ari-2025-11-16
49ers vs. Cardinals
79,100,015
79,104,389
0f1ab7e778a6aa00098a9bb5898eed5a50f2a408
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x363759df1577076ee1b9c17c90c578bc4fbe62af1723a79e0d2a3af0f145a6b8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
jaguars
0.000094
nfl-lac-jax-2025-11-16
Chargers vs. Jaguars
79,100,414
79,105,035
b4693e90a30651583c9f9d15ad8c47699cf79941
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xb350e9612ada0f3e5a43dc365fbf7268894c25c0c706004651afe2ef70a05f99
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
lions
0.00061
nfl-det-phi-2025-11-16
Spread: Eagles (-2.5)
79,113,811
79,141,144
889f755e85bb7ece9c3a8c517b2a27f59b0bd9a0
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xa5923b56cac3f740336c0dd01c8801641003aa5ae88b61d36317b0499533bf1c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
avalanche
0
nhl-nyi-col-2025-11-16
Islanders vs. Avalanche
79,119,219
79,141,019
db787fc79daeaacfc4ecd6d048f94bd3762b149b
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x8932b39ea4b0c9e43e4bb957d246276a5e0ea38655daef364f22e42157bbdfd0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
bills
0
nfl-buf-hou-2025-11-20
Spread: Bills (-5.5)
79,288,224
79,302,863
79c846b0a9ca0217a276149889168666326e09f1
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x66f76a978bc2248a03204f8af574618236207ee2c726dc292520ad908cd97ebb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
missouri
0
cfb-missr-okl-2025-11-22
Spread: Oklahoma (-5.5)
79,362,651
79,362,784
a5afb5ca2f644b2095aa983c3a019b7beb236ba4
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x713e497584739df7c461addeb01cbb09066ad484c8f2f5147807b1a0c9344301
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
fresno state
0
cfb-utahst-frest-2025-11-22
Utah State vs. Fresno State
79,378,267
79,381,006
71ff1f75dd0c4c519cbf70c91f90121822945c2f
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xdf4986591dd4195ff6c21f90ba2284752ac4a949852783ee6e1b38ef5e6db63f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
seahawks
0
nfl-sea-ten-2025-11-23
Spread: Seahawks (-12.5)
79,405,225
79,406,411
10412f584784d875770d1c2d1fde7d1c2cff7402
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x1464e1fe9b739dd84a41212e1e58d7c7c2b376a3f7f91ac8cf5342c5c0bfc947
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
falcons
0
nfl-atl-no-2025-11-23
Falcons vs. Saints
79,405,801
79,423,264
1db16920959d5ee6a5384c2bb6f07df27e65aea9
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x76827d4d989a80d7eea355b49c427d1ac47887c267916de6d5802235160f4a24
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
bengals
0
nfl-ne-cin-2025-11-23
Spread: Patriots (-7.5)
79,407,602
79,418,006
cf629be59e02b1b451b51f2b4390af271d258bd2
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x904797b19e0b02e674d50135d92e70380ea137081e39b91b384263dc05732cda
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
lions
1
nfl-nyg-det-2025-11-23
Giants vs. Lions
79,418,491
79,418,491
3260639d318d66e03ab66b24cc4d854f0eed833a
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xca7574d76a4bf2673b6103dc532a2a86bf78c0eccd69c27d1584ae9232b5a215
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
over
0
nfl-car-sf-2025-11-24
Panthers vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5
79,439,132
79,461,231
d647f69de0db1829d670d9572d3e052bf5a36918
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x5845506d06fe50e56cbc558a3b42c00b190a8a13510e76ece6f7130871551265
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
49ers
0
nfl-car-sf-2025-11-24
Spread: 49ers (-7.5)
79,463,039
79,463,216
ec3ec3d3d017b0a635e0e357d051a4d128d13a6f
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xe77c389d59082205bc4f8881a21902aaecbde16521f6182f6a7782ce710905bd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
lions
0
nfl-gb-det-2025-11-27
Packers vs. Lions
79,578,704
79,591,015
ab68e944e36c4660a5872212f709633a2a1bc80c
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xe8b22d44cfdcf2a785f149347af3d7bf6bca8c7431583ba2149e11f07d1c327d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n...
lions
0
nfl-gb-det-2025-11-27
Spread: Lions (-2.5)
79,578,709
79,578,709
e8f59a8f3cf997d2f6ed238fb2b1c42f44fb67cd
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xc1c9131de561179b3186d746557b3c3023ff52c263f699e50f399cc8b6c0aa73
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Europe win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice...
mississippi state
0
cfb-miss-mspst-2025-11-28
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
79,620,396
79,620,396
68096bc30a1e7526c1af20fcf5a7d09c9984e0ec
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xb23d4f76b4769913b3b3474a8dd86e82383100d4b7d6b743951d687e78f2d45e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Europe win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-03? | Event: epl-bou-ful-2025-10-03 | Cho...
boise state
0
cfb-boise-utahst-2025-11-28
Boise State vs. Utah State
79,625,265
79,651,929
799b533ed637b8d83f9e42247b8aa1d5076c70d1
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xab2f211f067340a5ce28f181387f6c658ad308162e5ad4bb9fbf3582dd1cfe87
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Europe win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-03? | Event: epl-bou-ful-2025-10-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Cubs vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-chc-mil-2025-10-11 | Choice: brewers |...
seahawks
0
nfl-min-sea-2025-11-30
Spread: Seahawks (-11.5)
79,630,483
79,724,931
daeaec0cc59222270067c6a73c321842cd99e9ff
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x31ee3fbfa8e754054700325f5cbf2285956f58f800a2c46b65e4d1087d8bbfac
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-03? | Event: epl-bou-ful-2025-10-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Cubs vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-chc-mil-2025-10-11 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: 49ers vs. Texans | Event: nfl-sf-hou-2025-10-26 | Choice: texans | Confidence: 1.0...
over
0
cfb-arz-arzst-2025-11-28
Arizona vs. Arizona State: O/U 47.5
79,632,224
79,632,224
34c6d469aeb5a28d40f08172f53710e67a796b3d
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0x1a659eb91ee6ec01bea770a06f04f3494c7f2141ee45bfd9feec6a44b1390546
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Cubs vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-chc-mil-2025-10-11 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: 49ers vs. Texans | Event: nfl-sf-hou-2025-10-26 | Choice: texans | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Spread: UNLV (-3.5) | Event: cfb-nmx-unlv-2025-11-01 | Choice: new mexico | Confidence: 0.0 4. Ques...
michigan
0
cfb-ohiost-mich-2025-11-29
Spread: Ohio State (-10.5)
79,663,347
79,663,347
8296947c859b1a96ad55637fdda283f69674cd83
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xc8fac6008bd93871d0e948f30f3cc172f9fb2786fe3beac0937af2073ba76bf5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: 49ers vs. Texans | Event: nfl-sf-hou-2025-10-26 | Choice: texans | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Spread: UNLV (-3.5) | Event: cfb-nmx-unlv-2025-11-01 | Choice: new mexico | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Spread: Cowboys (-3.5) | Event: nfl-ari-dal-2025-11-03 | Choice: cowboys | Confidence: 5.658...
seahawks
0
nfl-min-sea-2025-11-30
Vikings vs. Seahawks
79,665,656
79,724,973
2c4879a78ee57eab0ef3cbe67187f09b6bcbd5b4
0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429
0xfe68f8515a938d341d7491e37263d199561e6716fbe6247c413985843cdb0096
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Spread: UNLV (-3.5) | Event: cfb-nmx-unlv-2025-11-01 | Choice: new mexico | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Spread: Cowboys (-3.5) | Event: nfl-ari-dal-2025-11-03 | Choice: cowboys | Confidence: 5.658107520521867e-06 3. Question: Spread: Memphis (-3.5) | Event: cfb-tulane-mphs-2025-11-07 | Choic...
lsu
0
cfb-lsu-okl-2025-11-29
Spread: Oklahoma (-10.5)
79,670,303
79,670,303
af4bd585ddfaa92b83f891b88f0db619ab77259b
0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f
0x3ee09c8e5e6e96ca0e036f3c8fd3d38940d36b0b3dd4ba705e7ffa7577f0596d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
maple leafs
1
nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10
Maple Leafs vs. Devils
65,338,787
65,338,787
92ce654b9248c614fb2cf3c97b69e623cc123806
0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f
0x2b1493a81ba1359189a2471de0e029139001c8bc17f0e3af6e45e4f35e45a592
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choic...
ding
0
world-chess-championship-2024-winner
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner
65,390,530
65,390,530
744b75bdfd6ad7d43d7d08513687e64cd81975ca
0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f
0x544c370753544dfbe022bfa0a4576deceddb77111c9e3ac04a01a39e4b2cdd65
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0 Target market: Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? Event...
no
1
epl-wol-ips-2024-12-14
Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw?
65,485,011
65,485,011
b2c38f25a0b286b2acf58b64b21812472661c3c5
0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f
0xe4f3c4025fd587798e1b8c0b5c1f5b7d84448f6dce38395631c4a3f75834cbdc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i...
capitals
0
nhl-wsh-dal-2024-12-16
Capitals vs. Stars
65,577,453
65,613,585
fe4c2dcc3b1c836bbda0007d7818ba159f3ec184
0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f
0x480e85799b0a382044051d15e4453b548abe85d601ec8ac338dc806d8dfb5bd6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i...
kings
0
nhl-lak-pit-2024-12-17
Kings vs. Penguins
65,616,046
65,616,046
f987b1fb4f6d5f04a53010740656bd516b9d4678
0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f
0xb25d647e913020101fe31c5042faaa354888699664b4e9eb0e83e49edab84de7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i...
no
1
la-liga-barcelona-vs-atletico-madrid
Will the match between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid end in a draw?
65,774,814
65,774,814
e28992ba8f69b83f262d73d7f0c8e1bb845344c9
0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f
0x3260bbedc033e860121f8a491cf98ee09ee909c015bd66c5efac5e9821115bec
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i...
golden knights
0
nhl-las-sj-2024-12-27
Golden Knights vs. Sharks
66,012,877
66,039,444
5b08ccea332e619dc333af27c48582e392d2175b
0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f
0x12370603e5f26e6d5ecfde4b7f48a2484bab8faa374668f43d80295ca5ecf71c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i...
kings
0
nhl-edm-lak-2024-12-28
Oilers vs. Kings
66,042,326
66,042,326
83b05b4a5f0a98d0c1b50c9f6478ac900f7c6424
0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f
0x63c65dce21e0ee82be230b82b57282ce4f6bf0922d6dc54352286492de688d66
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i...
no
1
epl-ful-bou-2024-12-29
Will Fulham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?
66,087,473
66,087,473
3459385b1af46fb5e9fe862f1f4c1135a60f7116
0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f
0x170547668ab3545ad2b3698b0fc7929d7b5a0fa0bd6b290a8dff9fc97b8e3b95
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i...
yes
1
epl-mac-wes-2025-01-04
Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-04?
66,389,778
66,389,778
82a27b616146758c2a97980189b22d8cfada970d
0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f
0xc956b10a339271f45125c65a99c6afba4ce7a9105d38006442360f69014c5e60
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i...
no
1
epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04
Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
66,389,778
66,389,778
40666d5f9ed1e2c9f9b104c57d3aa00f6c0f8e83
0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f
0xeb12460f83e80f213e06e26864e14fb6b79a467f0838912daa0c46d377a09834
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i...
yes
1
epl-sou-bre-2025-01-04
Will Brentford win on 2025-01-04?
66,389,778
66,389,778
3ae3c1b5a18249565b76be4056666464867f3369
0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f
0xf275c727394c690aa7904deafb91877f2c1a26e7099234d3a6f8d177fb3a5df1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i...
no
1
australian-open-winner-m
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard win the Australian Open?
66,700,131
66,700,131
a155f480109ca1f8c1678a722a3862ea985bb4d7
0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f
0x49087183eb3a87cf57baec0bfa0fed5c321a98cfb575e4c8d95bdf626c58c8a9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i...
no
1
australian-open-winner-m
Will Daniil Medvedev win the Australian Open?
66,787,919
66,787,919
fd239eceb9186bb5cc67a7fddb213fc5020021ae
0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f
0xb205403ef95287cab032ce425145e4609966f0d385c57c962eaab43a53cb3a90
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i...
no
1
australian-open-winner-m
Will Taylor Fritz win the Australian Open?
66,877,699
66,877,699
622ca32e44c4c4d72f452ba373b09687853cebf5
0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f
0x25e2aa00240a00f728a6023ec62e40138cf94feb43360ff5b50a36af10a0eeca
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0 3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i...
predators
0
nhl-sj-nsh-2025-01-21
Sharks vs. Predators
66,988,594
66,988,871