sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
d0491e8e4a29a2f17501884f838b1260f81b7f10 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xacc45b780a7d4859d28d0f1b33eedea94f8fcbb915c6dc02885088c4fb156bc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Mar 28? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | uef-aze-ukr-2025-09-09 | Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-09-09? | 76,275,031 | 76,275,031 |
0cc059d77a682853a2b43831943070b69444540c | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x5d3d649a8363f04140dd8b994414ea336f67184589cd2881758c4c7be4671ce1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Mar 28? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Mar 28? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the... | no | 1 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-september | Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? | 77,121,680 | 77,121,680 |
d780e8486dfb1ef0bbef3eba681f4a9570d113ff | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x5084f8d643efb8e3b6106a8984245479e766216c2a13dafbb113592811ac67d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Mar 28? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $82000 on April 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the... | no | 1 | uef-kaz-lie-2025-10-10 | Will Liechtenstein win on 2025-10-10? | 77,509,782 | 77,509,782 |
44ba6cc3410d992006a4a874b0fc6508f85c4cd6 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x93c3ea7084b14595ff62cc850fc40b5760b2b06c62f96d08fac4d1a8fef7a71d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $82000 on April 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the... | yes | 1 | uef-ger-lux-2025-10-10 | Will Germany win on 2025-10-10? | 77,544,307 | 77,544,307 |
0537825a82568784228c9177593900a89b154c5e | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x77927e301fed9124438e246f70ecd4a3160ad0aa7ea5fc091bd1bd1211d46be4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the... | no | 1 | uef-smr-cyp-2025-10-12 | Will San Marino win on 2025-10-12? | 77,597,590 | 77,597,590 |
9fa9c2de2844cef13bbd2cd371268e7bc75b1522 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x28f7d60ec393a41e36519e17ad542c60e0312f7acff711b0df6b609b5112905c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $89000 on Apr 25? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will th... | no | 1 | uef-nir-ger-2025-10-13 | Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-10-13? | 77,668,860 | 77,668,860 |
3b5326f638acfde249178813ea0f37a3d9650fd5 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0xc5bb8aabf50ca7230c63be0a900fe0ac4018f36ab6dd0aeebd9e59beaf08c415 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?
Event: belarus-presidential-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 67,315,727 | 67,315,727 |
538cac8a6d362811f48cc36415c3a664bb1fcedc | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x93b9a0b92b572e7ce67a78af85d8b37460a94db29a50f923fc31e8eb891a566a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers?
Event: jimmy-butler-trade
Predict the user's choice and confidence ... | no | 1 | jimmy-butler-trade | Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | 67,595,091 | 67,595,091 |
4c920b24d68eaf7d9a3c8430d4b00064fe2ba500 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x9ac4df341a085d95b140921056e5b221e21ad05d090c8567c39cea071bc01303 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Questi... | no | 1 | jimmy-butler-trade | Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Orlando Magic? | 67,595,091 | 67,595,091 |
55eb6172af2f085e2508986e1fcbf7655c4db949 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0xddf49ac45f081424c0850388a6a312f03d67a2edd2341c08f4b6bbbea3b05bd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | yes | 0.744043 | jimmy-butler-trade | Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | 67,595,091 | 67,595,091 |
905992cdaa7752b4fba23f0497d36c3c283b5b62 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x086becf59481be2a94e8e5eaf5869ee4847b0329c7714fb6232cdbc37e74d433 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | yes | 1 | super-bowl-lix-first-touchdown-scorer | Will Jalen Hurts score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX? | 67,751,550 | 67,751,550 |
41576813626cb7c5394dc47ac9700a3100d2882d | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x1d8821183636eb50838d5fb9bd7ee7b5a5d7c37a43eca8402a09d3a248a73717 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | no | 1 | super-bowl-lix-mvp | Will Saquon Barkley win Super Bowl LIX MVP? | 67,751,949 | 67,751,949 |
375837da4829804ff0c3c3720fe68e4a1efb978c | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x4aada14f602de551f597754771533856529302960b981d210d0a08e8409cae03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | no | 1 | super-bowl-lix-margin-of-victory | Will the Eagles win Super Bowl LIX by 19-21 points? | 67,776,914 | 67,776,914 |
a001f418ad305c33e2c6b8763b6f095cc1fc1ffb | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0xc6ef1b74a2e89a432702fa6ad8c38d10079505a13b4fbae3d0c1e42a9effb9c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | no | 1 | super-bowl-lix-margin-of-victory | Will the Eagles win Super Bowl LIX by 13-15 points? | 67,776,914 | 67,776,914 |
64b9b839c4a66f4608f90c3c6054101c3aaa5e9a | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x2eb101521d4c37667666a3a007c6d89acda6c7f54a444d14c61b6e74f1553253 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | yes | 1 | nba-3-point-contest-champion | Will Tyler Herro win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | 67,988,539 | 67,988,539 |
391949912af676369f4ac2ad5f64ed1d109d8317 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x5d1325b6db95d001c0aeec176d6afbb4ec622913d87657ff5d2d5c6ebe44d727 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | no | 1 | nba-3-point-contest-champion | Will Damian Lillard win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | 67,988,539 | 67,988,539 |
e80ddc1089bb9b38529736dbeb9a7496be185ace | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0xa65cc5fad8146d3a0b591bdbb36b32cf09e0188985b31604c415b306511e6efc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | no | 1 | nba-3-point-contest-champion | Will Norman Powell win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | 67,988,539 | 67,988,539 |
0b049e55bca10a9fcfe1d9b90cabe6c2ab677c13 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0xd11af3000ac76dbe8eeb5d0d53f5f1aa4bb8d47ee467ddc7d9fddfaf43e387d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-all-star-game-winner | Will Team Kenny win the 2025 NBA All Star Game Tournament? | 68,057,118 | 68,057,118 |
05db0cfec56562d2353fc99f8d73f6eb2b2496fc | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x544367f38cd54c7b61d9fbee9e02a50dbb5fdc714e15f89702f5fdac0bd58100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | raptors | 1 | nba-cha-tor-2025-03-28 | Hornets vs. Raptors | 69,629,643 | 69,629,643 |
ea317273e899e6d3c3bceedb55ada2bbc948c163 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x737d3100e6db98c32e1ebeaab1cc4fc7ed357a3856d1c83022f16bb36d390d87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | heat | 1 | nba-mia-phi-2025-03-29 | Heat vs. 76ers | 69,672,825 | 69,672,825 |
e2efa840d18c251dd8f1ba4ae5095348a2b78e09 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x97d63388980db00e906296f9507bfb0b3526cdd9dffc9c7d208638f0926fb7d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | knicks | 1 | nba-phi-nyk-2025-04-01 | 76ers vs. Knicks | 69,791,634 | 69,791,634 |
b48a3b5401bb42c71540481e767ceada25c2904a | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x45c6d0cd91564907075f7e09321b8f056f0a97e47c74d18b2aefe67b3887fd36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | warriors | 1 | nba-gsw-lal-2025-04-03 | Warriors vs. Lakers | 69,881,149 | 69,881,149 |
412077af8c62bbd5b8887a45ff12a59936af5f22 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x68fdee23335b6d3e726e0e250c7784fd901da093e3d6eec26bb355b2a22c0fc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | celtics | 1 | nba-phx-bos-2025-04-04 | Suns vs. Celtics | 69,913,590 | 69,913,590 |
b00dd2ab2f56c6b5d61046072710b5dce54c08c9 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x96ff95a86ddf9e66aac0f29546858bfed45e07172dfd72e9e11ecdc2b64e6a06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | spurs | 1 | nba-sas-por-2025-04-06 | Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | 69,996,397 | 69,996,397 |
1d21d8a84a011a57ca3742fb3870358c2ea637ee | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x4fd2adc4e3f7954b4211db930b486a30b5d7b8d4b0818ad3fa62dd2efbbac510 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? | 70,190,083 | 70,190,083 |
94d72709912799c6c39447555bd4ebcf9dc987d6 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x70593c79b4b41353f5a57fd1fd5770b518e957cd9b463b27981235b2cab3033c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? | 70,190,083 | 70,190,083 |
45716c5dad60427749ed649d5c220b935d6a5149 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x75fe6b90aa8cb0f6eac518bf3f4e4069c0952fbceefd1f2f7c44956aaddb1e4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Will Elon tweet 190-199 times April 4 - 11? | 70,190,083 | 70,190,083 |
515701f1f480b1a2a07840ce07b75d580f077554 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x7d1673f133fe70f1807a338834f1506c8e9a88894f573635b10b92927bed73d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Will Elon tweet 180-189 times April 4 - 11? | 70,190,083 | 70,190,083 |
e8a05b639493085c4f7607de957841bfc73f214e | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x923972b166bd5b7e49aab3e88d65c101163a09c32ef05ae76217b59f493f23a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11-lower-brackets | Will Elon tweet 250 or more times April 4 - 11? | 70,190,083 | 70,190,083 |
0995bd55b39c25ab61c0b7625c34ba8e54e3f6d5 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0xd3774ae60217db10f22773ff8184984e7875ab0be87e82b1a37148eaacd99a64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | yes | 1 | nba-rebounds-leader | Will another player lead the NBA in Rebounds? | 70,341,262 | 70,341,262 |
8f233e41897a4ef2ab88df0a03e6bd1c86a6c456 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0xd964541735abd3bc6ba80de60dbef71f404a061d34e3e271b3bef1e21192c0ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,341,262 | 70,341,262 |
5f2433a4c57868ddd7aaebc836606b8b666f7609 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x307f1107750a342fce55b4ea3ef41b972321bd0ab8fbd77bbd47871f8ecf6692 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | no | 1 | nba-eastern-conference-champion | Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference? | 70,486,172 | 70,486,172 |
32eb23f65b7447baec268e7268fc5cf13ab86f81 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0xe2f8c219022a3f49c1ed46bba53bf1ef9386c3501fc90e004a5f047933af37e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | no | 1 | nba-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will Jaren Jackson Jr. win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | 70,564,269 | 70,564,269 |
9aad859ee942fbd186fb031abe7df221bbb5cabd | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x90067275fc465aa256a334cfbb26cff984270d992adec51e06452fbf7151a0c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | yes | 1 | nba-6th-man-of-the-year | Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? | 70,639,539 | 70,639,539 |
3155a7822d5ba13885e3778a8dcf5ff24a99169f | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x1d18fd82acb4b0dec5d490499fbd067ae493c49f43fb9f79e122b5846f235274 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | yes | 1 | nba-rookie-of-the-year | Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? | 70,923,895 | 70,923,895 |
4e67cf0760de0dc013c0710efa8d44719143493b | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x229cb5de8b5e690f950b34bfb79f1aae331680f522f6bed6f78229584237d2fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | no | 1 | nba-rookie-of-the-year | Will Jaylen Wells win NBA Rookie of the Year? | 70,923,895 | 70,923,895 |
dc3b353eaaec5c4a63af1c817eb850662dcdda51 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x2c73aaf76c348146a9c57b2a4462a6f7ce5287c5e4f965c7e8ff9b19c8dc5710 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimm... | no | 1 | nba-rookie-of-the-year | Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year? | 70,923,895 | 70,923,895 |
40a3a89b36c88a4d3f3aa0bb4d07678f8ada5877 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x5aebf0de3b3b325075f4fd813d2884f5706b0ea1434a4745897af941b3ed1e7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Clippers? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Orlando Magic? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Gold... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-april | Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? | 70,960,467 | 70,960,467 |
bf4557934ef3858be40eace2c6d109ca330df1d5 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x759f318ebb014c6792d50853e4e0eb0aa83a73f86285a82d15f724af667c9211 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Orlando Magic? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7440434653177762
3. Question: Will Jalen Hurts score ... | no | 1 | 2025-madrid-open-winner-w | Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2025 Women's Madrid Open? | 70,960,467 | 70,960,467 |
800c7213f9bb8c699a2226c8eac46321fd141cbc | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x064faeffbdb8588cb3ebd3a5b9901da787fe010bdd0652a9809765055ac87a52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Golden State Warriors? | Event: jimmy-butler-trade | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7440434653177762
2. Question: Will Jalen Hurts score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: super-bowl-lix-first-touchdown-scorer | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | 2025-madrid-open-winner-w | Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 Women's Madrid Open? | 71,084,256 | 71,084,256 |
6202ce260859c529d1e2b5feb823a50f09717cad | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x08c62353a7b9be1cf70fd0777350c7472b305cc53c3d8a2e2966bc5b9d823a42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jalen Hurts score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX? | Event: super-bowl-lix-first-touchdown-scorer | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Saquon Barkley win Super Bowl LIX MVP? | Event: super-bowl-lix-mvp | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Eagles win Sup... | pacers | 1 | nba-playoffs-cavaliers-vs-pacers-to-advance | NBA Playoffs: Cavaliers vs. Pacers (To Advance) | 71,497,059 | 71,497,059 |
81319a18db076e738ba28a592589723cae1559ab | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0xa0765b2b5b12f670962b43a6bdb43a0a732a147f0b07fa9be170127e8d3c53e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Saquon Barkley win Super Bowl LIX MVP? | Event: super-bowl-lix-mvp | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Eagles win Super Bowl LIX by 19-21 points? | Event: super-bowl-lix-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Eagles win Super Bowl LIX by 1... | no | 1 | italy-grand-prix-winner | Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? | 71,685,892 | 71,685,892 |
86b68c28fcf927c1f6ff6d1f0f10921f47a7bebe | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0xec26bab2b368d7d7997215330cff36f9203d1b59e5f26a29db2902174a83334c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles win Super Bowl LIX by 19-21 points? | Event: super-bowl-lix-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Eagles win Super Bowl LIX by 13-15 points? | Event: super-bowl-lix-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tyler Herro ... | no | 1 | 2025-internazionali-bnl-ditalia-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Internazionali BNL d'Italia? | 71,685,892 | 71,685,892 |
d3eae474c2c9d70c8a3058290883f6475e3a9240 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x158c092e490c97319458037637e29c152e34bb89766fca194889f7add8239142 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles win Super Bowl LIX by 13-15 points? | Event: super-bowl-lix-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tyler Herro win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Damian Lillard w... | no | 1 | nba-mvp-2024-25 | Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | 71,819,434 | 71,819,434 |
f72721fdc5fcae4e6bd0284096dd21820e15ca9a | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0x8725f5d1b5282496676283084cb54be91fac2ba380d951178d953e78d0c0c5ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tyler Herro win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Damian Lillard win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Norman Powell win ... | no | 0.170348 | 2025-french-open-winner | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open? | 72,531,286 | 72,531,286 |
23db4822c32e470ff42b2d761dbbdb5296f7c704 | 0x148487d3f19011b864bbcae6c83766888b0fcafe | 0xb1d3425f59ceae2850755ae4f4c5c0d8cb46f4446e3fd191ee4077e0527202f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Damian Lillard win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Norman Powell win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Team Kenny win th... | no | 0.416417 | 2025-french-open-winner | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open? | 72,531,286 | 72,531,286 |
bdfbf8f0a55da10215fdc0d7ac91e0ab4a8bce3c | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x145ff557ed79e625c505ba4119dbf10642e0990004ea51f690b35a18ebb8edb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21?
Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | 76,737,970 | 76,737,970 |
6a85777aa396cc6cf5fa13b2de576615a593a49c | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xd1c22676bbae4bbe809d8a561b6e3010d1717bf7fc059d9cbe6d3e74597a540f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27?
Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confid... | no | 1 | epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | 76,985,291 | 76,985,291 |
62c4d2b7059f28408fba069ad806f99a774a8c93 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x2f158da91342aa36b0d3cf443b779a746f50de2e6ba37d6c7efe24dc938b0588 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup?
Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner
... | no | 1 | golf-ryder-cup-winner | Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | 77,040,321 | 77,040,321 |
6e6b15574499c4059387ad98e76cfe9be922afab | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xc35fa42e207ef1f97dea25b852e2678329c9344605ee6aa21667c5d57b2001f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | yes | 1 | golf-ryder-cup-winner | Will Europe win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | 77,040,363 | 77,040,363 |
eab4b806338eeed0725b14b2fcc2af974cc72651 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xe88a5efae0158b68c3c48439afe649f0e55426024aa6c91af57ba9b88dac9d9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-ful-2025-10-03 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-03? | 77,228,218 | 77,228,218 |
b32a829b8f98937c3977b346a3a4f4a1c138bda1 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xebd74255ffe6a1229a422a53fca888018d5b490f1cea36b91c0e61a0eb46dfaf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | brewers | 1 | mlb-chc-mil-2025-10-11 | Cubs vs. Brewers | 77,577,413 | 77,577,413 |
c328f3b6f5d1871e9dfa69bba41938ca9670ffd7 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x71dd4bb30879f07523f31b899294862a0ac4c3b521c8f7d4c216344ebc5765e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | texans | 1 | nfl-sf-hou-2025-10-26 | 49ers vs. Texans | 78,206,083 | 78,206,083 |
74c8ec51e3a4bed650e73bdae8e6d58c2face7d6 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xa7fcb875c42d31916caf1f58b053bf574846e326deda924373ba6243722e5b82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | new mexico | 0 | cfb-nmx-unlv-2025-11-01 | Spread: UNLV (-3.5) | 78,458,346 | 78,471,079 |
2694e2881de18ab6b541c645395acf06273b1f14 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xe5d2ec653eaf22a3cee501bd18dbb0fbfb2ed82be66093771b55447a238406c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | cowboys | 0.000006 | nfl-ari-dal-2025-11-03 | Spread: Cowboys (-3.5) | 78,546,560 | 78,546,560 |
7d4456a4ebc40079f18dcbb46a2cc2c1f03663d0 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xa2d859d57b3231fc7f9cc12ab63bc52b6ded8a3aea8cc306e3a140cf25cb6996 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | memphis | 1 | cfb-tulane-mphs-2025-11-07 | Spread: Memphis (-3.5) | 78,725,549 | 78,725,549 |
a92c2967c9b4db333a43d7ce7520d8217a260e3e | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x0687e55e4c537313a5d4ff0ee83f0286c819e12be0893349f760577f493c0194 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | falcons | 1 | nfl-atl-ind-2025-11-09 | Spread: Colts (-6.5) | 78,794,731 | 78,809,133 |
9b8855af5b29c80119ec6d4cff0ed6a9fdc01950 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xd1905e6cd12355f40696edeb01e703e3f827d7bf7771a54766f55130aea9df91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | chargers | 0 | nfl-pit-lac-2025-11-09 | Spread: Chargers (-3.5) | 78,815,685 | 78,840,734 |
d1a447894997061f15852272ba2a0fa174db142b | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x23e6e6f8a327a41bad1282fdc34e846f52e73e390d44b004ac92a329766e2848 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | eagles | 0 | nfl-phi-gb-2025-11-10 | Eagles vs. Packers | 78,857,960 | 78,858,529 |
48112a7ba3b7a4f2096cc142a85ebc821c671131 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xcb3275fd4ca0879f01af6986eaf12eb385da9aa81182f185e0886ab706c80206 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | over | 0 | nhl-tor-bos-2025-11-11 | Maple Leafs vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5 | 78,894,857 | 78,894,962 |
3c5983a8f80611d1267223b92ba13d581f8fec78 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x18e6256e103dfd176d96335763c9f70917d3255629c09c8a40cf180beb7f2686 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | tulsa | 0.001217 | cfb-oregst-tulsa-2025-11-15 | Oregon State vs. Tulsa | 79,048,560 | 79,060,904 |
42f457acb42def6ce621e728231fdc44fad5707f | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x5ce033e2cd7c428b1d431bbb994ec8c7ca408ba2afd8974fcf91e198155b1919 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | indiana | 0 | cfb-wisc-ind-2025-11-15 | Spread: Indiana (-29.5) | 79,056,147 | 79,056,147 |
7f63a174441c44e1f4c1521e339189ef9f282661 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xe1cf3458c0fab5246dbe7fa4b90a660db64e44907193ab102b7a53c2d87864ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | 49ers | 0.006129 | nfl-sf-ari-2025-11-16 | 49ers vs. Cardinals | 79,100,015 | 79,104,389 |
0f1ab7e778a6aa00098a9bb5898eed5a50f2a408 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x363759df1577076ee1b9c17c90c578bc4fbe62af1723a79e0d2a3af0f145a6b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | jaguars | 0.000094 | nfl-lac-jax-2025-11-16 | Chargers vs. Jaguars | 79,100,414 | 79,105,035 |
b4693e90a30651583c9f9d15ad8c47699cf79941 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xb350e9612ada0f3e5a43dc365fbf7268894c25c0c706004651afe2ef70a05f99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | lions | 0.00061 | nfl-det-phi-2025-11-16 | Spread: Eagles (-2.5) | 79,113,811 | 79,141,144 |
889f755e85bb7ece9c3a8c517b2a27f59b0bd9a0 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xa5923b56cac3f740336c0dd01c8801641003aa5ae88b61d36317b0499533bf1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | avalanche | 0 | nhl-nyi-col-2025-11-16 | Islanders vs. Avalanche | 79,119,219 | 79,141,019 |
db787fc79daeaacfc4ecd6d048f94bd3762b149b | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x8932b39ea4b0c9e43e4bb957d246276a5e0ea38655daef364f22e42157bbdfd0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | bills | 0 | nfl-buf-hou-2025-11-20 | Spread: Bills (-5.5) | 79,288,224 | 79,302,863 |
79c846b0a9ca0217a276149889168666326e09f1 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x66f76a978bc2248a03204f8af574618236207ee2c726dc292520ad908cd97ebb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | missouri | 0 | cfb-missr-okl-2025-11-22 | Spread: Oklahoma (-5.5) | 79,362,651 | 79,362,784 |
a5afb5ca2f644b2095aa983c3a019b7beb236ba4 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x713e497584739df7c461addeb01cbb09066ad484c8f2f5147807b1a0c9344301 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | fresno state | 0 | cfb-utahst-frest-2025-11-22 | Utah State vs. Fresno State | 79,378,267 | 79,381,006 |
71ff1f75dd0c4c519cbf70c91f90121822945c2f | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xdf4986591dd4195ff6c21f90ba2284752ac4a949852783ee6e1b38ef5e6db63f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | seahawks | 0 | nfl-sea-ten-2025-11-23 | Spread: Seahawks (-12.5) | 79,405,225 | 79,406,411 |
10412f584784d875770d1c2d1fde7d1c2cff7402 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x1464e1fe9b739dd84a41212e1e58d7c7c2b376a3f7f91ac8cf5342c5c0bfc947 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | falcons | 0 | nfl-atl-no-2025-11-23 | Falcons vs. Saints | 79,405,801 | 79,423,264 |
1db16920959d5ee6a5384c2bb6f07df27e65aea9 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x76827d4d989a80d7eea355b49c427d1ac47887c267916de6d5802235160f4a24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | bengals | 0 | nfl-ne-cin-2025-11-23 | Spread: Patriots (-7.5) | 79,407,602 | 79,418,006 |
cf629be59e02b1b451b51f2b4390af271d258bd2 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x904797b19e0b02e674d50135d92e70380ea137081e39b91b384263dc05732cda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | lions | 1 | nfl-nyg-det-2025-11-23 | Giants vs. Lions | 79,418,491 | 79,418,491 |
3260639d318d66e03ab66b24cc4d854f0eed833a | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xca7574d76a4bf2673b6103dc532a2a86bf78c0eccd69c27d1584ae9232b5a215 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | over | 0 | nfl-car-sf-2025-11-24 | Panthers vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5 | 79,439,132 | 79,461,231 |
d647f69de0db1829d670d9572d3e052bf5a36918 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x5845506d06fe50e56cbc558a3b42c00b190a8a13510e76ece6f7130871551265 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | 49ers | 0 | nfl-car-sf-2025-11-24 | Spread: 49ers (-7.5) | 79,463,039 | 79,463,216 |
ec3ec3d3d017b0a635e0e357d051a4d128d13a6f | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xe77c389d59082205bc4f8881a21902aaecbde16521f6182f6a7782ce710905bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | lions | 0 | nfl-gb-det-2025-11-27 | Packers vs. Lions | 79,578,704 | 79,591,015 |
ab68e944e36c4660a5872212f709633a2a1bc80c | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xe8b22d44cfdcf2a785f149347af3d7bf6bca8c7431583ba2149e11f07d1c327d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? | Event: epl-ars-mac-2025-09-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: n... | lions | 0 | nfl-gb-det-2025-11-27 | Spread: Lions (-2.5) | 79,578,709 | 79,578,709 |
e8f59a8f3cf997d2f6ed238fb2b1c42f44fb67cd | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xc1c9131de561179b3186d746557b3c3023ff52c263f699e50f399cc8b6c0aa73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? | Event: epl-tot-wol-2025-09-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Europe win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice... | mississippi state | 0 | cfb-miss-mspst-2025-11-28 | Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State | 79,620,396 | 79,620,396 |
68096bc30a1e7526c1af20fcf5a7d09c9984e0ec | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xb23d4f76b4769913b3b3474a8dd86e82383100d4b7d6b743951d687e78f2d45e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Europe win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-03? | Event: epl-bou-ful-2025-10-03 | Cho... | boise state | 0 | cfb-boise-utahst-2025-11-28 | Boise State vs. Utah State | 79,625,265 | 79,651,929 |
799b533ed637b8d83f9e42247b8aa1d5076c70d1 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xab2f211f067340a5ce28f181387f6c658ad308162e5ad4bb9fbf3582dd1cfe87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Europe win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | Event: golf-ryder-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-03? | Event: epl-bou-ful-2025-10-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Cubs vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-chc-mil-2025-10-11 | Choice: brewers |... | seahawks | 0 | nfl-min-sea-2025-11-30 | Spread: Seahawks (-11.5) | 79,630,483 | 79,724,931 |
daeaec0cc59222270067c6a73c321842cd99e9ff | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x31ee3fbfa8e754054700325f5cbf2285956f58f800a2c46b65e4d1087d8bbfac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-03? | Event: epl-bou-ful-2025-10-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Cubs vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-chc-mil-2025-10-11 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: 49ers vs. Texans | Event: nfl-sf-hou-2025-10-26 | Choice: texans | Confidence: 1.0... | over | 0 | cfb-arz-arzst-2025-11-28 | Arizona vs. Arizona State: O/U 47.5 | 79,632,224 | 79,632,224 |
34c6d469aeb5a28d40f08172f53710e67a796b3d | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0x1a659eb91ee6ec01bea770a06f04f3494c7f2141ee45bfd9feec6a44b1390546 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Cubs vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-chc-mil-2025-10-11 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 49ers vs. Texans | Event: nfl-sf-hou-2025-10-26 | Choice: texans | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Spread: UNLV (-3.5) | Event: cfb-nmx-unlv-2025-11-01 | Choice: new mexico | Confidence: 0.0
4. Ques... | michigan | 0 | cfb-ohiost-mich-2025-11-29 | Spread: Ohio State (-10.5) | 79,663,347 | 79,663,347 |
8296947c859b1a96ad55637fdda283f69674cd83 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xc8fac6008bd93871d0e948f30f3cc172f9fb2786fe3beac0937af2073ba76bf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 49ers vs. Texans | Event: nfl-sf-hou-2025-10-26 | Choice: texans | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Spread: UNLV (-3.5) | Event: cfb-nmx-unlv-2025-11-01 | Choice: new mexico | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Spread: Cowboys (-3.5) | Event: nfl-ari-dal-2025-11-03 | Choice: cowboys | Confidence: 5.658... | seahawks | 0 | nfl-min-sea-2025-11-30 | Vikings vs. Seahawks | 79,665,656 | 79,724,973 |
2c4879a78ee57eab0ef3cbe67187f09b6bcbd5b4 | 0x14964aefa2cd7caff7878b3820a690a03c5aa429 | 0xfe68f8515a938d341d7491e37263d199561e6716fbe6247c413985843cdb0096 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Spread: UNLV (-3.5) | Event: cfb-nmx-unlv-2025-11-01 | Choice: new mexico | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Spread: Cowboys (-3.5) | Event: nfl-ari-dal-2025-11-03 | Choice: cowboys | Confidence: 5.658107520521867e-06
3. Question: Spread: Memphis (-3.5) | Event: cfb-tulane-mphs-2025-11-07 | Choic... | lsu | 0 | cfb-lsu-okl-2025-11-29 | Spread: Oklahoma (-10.5) | 79,670,303 | 79,670,303 |
af4bd585ddfaa92b83f891b88f0db619ab77259b | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x3ee09c8e5e6e96ca0e036f3c8fd3d38940d36b0b3dd4ba705e7ffa7577f0596d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils
Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | maple leafs | 1 | nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Maple Leafs vs. Devils | 65,338,787 | 65,338,787 |
92ce654b9248c614fb2cf3c97b69e623cc123806 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x2b1493a81ba1359189a2471de0e029139001c8bc17f0e3af6e45e4f35e45a592 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner
Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choic... | ding | 0 | world-chess-championship-2024-winner | World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | 65,390,530 | 65,390,530 |
744b75bdfd6ad7d43d7d08513687e64cd81975ca | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x544c370753544dfbe022bfa0a4576deceddb77111c9e3ac04a01a39e4b2cdd65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw?
Event... | no | 1 | epl-wol-ips-2024-12-14 | Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | 65,485,011 | 65,485,011 |
b2c38f25a0b286b2acf58b64b21812472661c3c5 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xe4f3c4025fd587798e1b8c0b5c1f5b7d84448f6dce38395631c4a3f75834cbdc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | capitals | 0 | nhl-wsh-dal-2024-12-16 | Capitals vs. Stars | 65,577,453 | 65,613,585 |
fe4c2dcc3b1c836bbda0007d7818ba159f3ec184 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x480e85799b0a382044051d15e4453b548abe85d601ec8ac338dc806d8dfb5bd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | kings | 0 | nhl-lak-pit-2024-12-17 | Kings vs. Penguins | 65,616,046 | 65,616,046 |
f987b1fb4f6d5f04a53010740656bd516b9d4678 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xb25d647e913020101fe31c5042faaa354888699664b4e9eb0e83e49edab84de7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | no | 1 | la-liga-barcelona-vs-atletico-madrid | Will the match between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | 65,774,814 | 65,774,814 |
e28992ba8f69b83f262d73d7f0c8e1bb845344c9 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x3260bbedc033e860121f8a491cf98ee09ee909c015bd66c5efac5e9821115bec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | golden knights | 0 | nhl-las-sj-2024-12-27 | Golden Knights vs. Sharks | 66,012,877 | 66,039,444 |
5b08ccea332e619dc333af27c48582e392d2175b | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x12370603e5f26e6d5ecfde4b7f48a2484bab8faa374668f43d80295ca5ecf71c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | kings | 0 | nhl-edm-lak-2024-12-28 | Oilers vs. Kings | 66,042,326 | 66,042,326 |
83b05b4a5f0a98d0c1b50c9f6478ac900f7c6424 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x63c65dce21e0ee82be230b82b57282ce4f6bf0922d6dc54352286492de688d66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | no | 1 | epl-ful-bou-2024-12-29 | Will Fulham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | 66,087,473 | 66,087,473 |
3459385b1af46fb5e9fe862f1f4c1135a60f7116 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x170547668ab3545ad2b3698b0fc7929d7b5a0fa0bd6b290a8dff9fc97b8e3b95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-wes-2025-01-04 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-04? | 66,389,778 | 66,389,778 |
82a27b616146758c2a97980189b22d8cfada970d | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xc956b10a339271f45125c65a99c6afba4ce7a9105d38006442360f69014c5e60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | no | 1 | epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | 66,389,778 | 66,389,778 |
40666d5f9ed1e2c9f9b104c57d3aa00f6c0f8e83 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xeb12460f83e80f213e06e26864e14fb6b79a467f0838912daa0c46d377a09834 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-bre-2025-01-04 | Will Brentford win on 2025-01-04? | 66,389,778 | 66,389,778 |
3ae3c1b5a18249565b76be4056666464867f3369 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xf275c727394c690aa7904deafb91877f2c1a26e7099234d3a6f8d177fb3a5df1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | no | 1 | australian-open-winner-m | Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard win the Australian Open? | 66,700,131 | 66,700,131 |
a155f480109ca1f8c1678a722a3862ea985bb4d7 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x49087183eb3a87cf57baec0bfa0fed5c321a98cfb575e4c8d95bdf626c58c8a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | no | 1 | australian-open-winner-m | Will Daniil Medvedev win the Australian Open? | 66,787,919 | 66,787,919 |
fd239eceb9186bb5cc67a7fddb213fc5020021ae | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xb205403ef95287cab032ce425145e4609966f0d385c57c962eaab43a53cb3a90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | no | 1 | australian-open-winner-m | Will Taylor Fritz win the Australian Open? | 66,877,699 | 66,877,699 |
622ca32e44c4c4d72f452ba373b09687853cebf5 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x25e2aa00240a00f728a6023ec62e40138cf94feb43360ff5b50a36af10a0eeca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | predators | 0 | nhl-sj-nsh-2025-01-21 | Sharks vs. Predators | 66,988,594 | 66,988,871 |
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