sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
619270f41df478fe7a47aa206d7784e90428b860 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x8ae3d57ec51665ca02f3f8c74fb63befc3662f2b0c65c55bdeea57d0ff69b5bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | no | 1 | vct-2025-americas-kickoff-winner | Will 2GAME Esports win the VCT 2025 Americas Kickoff? | 67,112,077 | 67,112,077 |
5153a4333b4dc355a1a498a28e2a77bdac3aa750 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x35e18cc4c00b1bd45f0c2ada1fea84b96df64ef0003f3d1d5faf44207c66fe27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | no | 1 | vct-2025-americas-kickoff-winner | Will 100 Thieves win the VCT 2025 Americas Kickoff? | 67,136,651 | 67,136,651 |
cc2f92d92fd04b3b6d4191a75a33a7539ff3d375 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xa5f0c941d36a811cad77ecf6e3b0ccdceaa42457530a7ed73128c89b9e616ae3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | no | 1 | australian-open-winner-m | Will Alexander Zverev win the Australian Open? | 67,229,553 | 67,229,553 |
526f4cdc0dfd2feadab6695183ab8bbf0aec1c00 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x862c406e573eba3cced3a0d465215764b7083b474733f010d6b2d2d0a3b7d2d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | yes | 1 | ucl-ben-mon-2025-02-18 | Will Benfica win on 2025-02-18? | 68,162,931 | 68,162,931 |
428007e4c30c8fc90b6ff12c93b93dc8c3e3973a | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xb2999799ae2a33bc6e43d2275f9c2d79046b0eb724fd5eba49d877011cce8ab7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | no | 1 | epl-ast-liv-2025-02-19 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-19? | 68,162,931 | 68,162,931 |
bbab97d101a8d063748f1a35d0da914379646362 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x05314476b8e8b5893158c9a0e668276606d7a92ce76f765dd2085c76c14b92c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | no | 0.760173 | uel-gal-az-2025-02-20 | Will Galatasaray win on 2025-02-20? | 68,241,106 | 68,241,106 |
1109c89de87474741fa7231796785c6baf868d3f | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xc3495e2970fab047786df45588c5b6f439d4727bd92fed240888277e745c3573 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | yes | 1 | ucl-bru-ast-2025-03-04 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | 68,686,809 | 68,686,809 |
36a85d152d570096b5b85446dc7dae2b16a821b8 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xe33a5cd7f57ca1eec3ce8dedc61711e68d9ce0d7ba2814339868fa04f2f1d09c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | no | 1 | ucl-bru-ast-2025-03-04 | Will Club Brugge vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | 68,686,809 | 68,686,809 |
cbf1a0eb7fa8df0d015a4d4226466bb3d9aeb1c4 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x24014b107ae2c722c5e37a3824dfe740222d21b9d4fee5d78e3fe8f06ace051f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | yes | 1 | epl-che-lei-2025-03-09 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09? | 68,848,738 | 68,848,738 |
5db3e28188c1501a9e70a7f596bdebd78db3f69d | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xaa06e23957d6d80ec0417f6fa48d0ce0f5c504ef6347be611ada1b0e9f51c489 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | no | 1 | epl-mun-ars-2025-03-09 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-09? | 68,881,355 | 68,881,355 |
cbcd70d4fbfcd531eab444ad18f40f218ade7f37 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x365b4805cdd891562f5257879d694c2e743c6aefa0c0bfb71a499533bf0e4b43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | yes | 1 | ucl-lil-dor-2025-03-12 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-12? | 68,975,641 | 68,975,641 |
1578f9e9e47b06c8ce52d5dd8905c29075bd00de | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x3587d5fa6c7fd20e7a5bfda03b2b4842d7f001bbcae05fcc98f2e6b24367580e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | no | 1 | europa-league-winner-24-25 | Will Roma win the UEFA Europa League? | 69,020,113 | 69,020,113 |
69e4394db0feb6cb84509b3b06acd399fcb00ad2 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xa7a1ea32fd4f89a929e03c14686da1f086a93b70374dcabe312fdab3281d5fd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | nuggets | 0 | nba-min-den-2025-04-01 | Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | 69,791,234 | 69,798,580 |
fb99dae7f755999560e9f6c795a6fb845992222f | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xc3e1b9c2dd9006994c8cb5ec4424b39551ba0db2ba814e8adcf749659eb7d978 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | no | 0.338798 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 70,066,569 | 70,066,569 |
d712fc6b012941209cee3ae8ff444c3bb1034c24 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x3622fbcd3dfff9229bae8e3c0ec8c9fd018e0b952980f52c25fd0271f247d17c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Maple Leafs vs. Devils | Event: nhl-tor-nj-2024-12-10 | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-i... | yes | 1 | presidents-trophy-winner | Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | 70,395,308 | 70,395,308 |
74b8abba3edf0886d24ff0ec2b0bb1cd7c1efef9 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xfea0417ff3224017d41a09f4c79724302e40bf2bb972548b1dd0458bcfb3d2ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: World Chess Championship 2024 Winner | Event: world-chess-championship-2024-winner | Choice: ding | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-ips-2024-12-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Capitals vs. Stars | Event: nhl-wsh-dal-2024-12-1... | no | 1 | presidents-trophy-winner | Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | 70,395,308 | 70,395,308 |
122f517883b6ede650181fa2413e83f2f09bb2a3 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x0e6f8d90b5b8628970858cee01ce0801ef5932ee167ea7aa6b90bbb30feede96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-wol-ips-2024-12-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Capitals vs. Stars | Event: nhl-wsh-dal-2024-12-16 | Choice: capitals | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Kings vs. Penguins | Event: nhl-lak-pit-2024-12-17 | Choice: kings | Confiden... | no | 1 | epl-ars-cry-2025-04-23 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-23? | 70,676,576 | 70,676,576 |
88c494acb6b24e3363eaafe00b4a00bb71c87507 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xa0087af4d8a570d8b15021a07e2e415bf2ac40c516f89c95aee1ca69e6069829 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Capitals vs. Stars | Event: nhl-wsh-dal-2024-12-16 | Choice: capitals | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Kings vs. Penguins | Event: nhl-lak-pit-2024-12-17 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the match between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: la-liga-barcelona... | blue jays | 0 | mlb-tor-nyy-2025-04-26 | Blue Jays vs. Yankees | 70,765,237 | 70,842,875 |
43dfeef7284d6693ab20e689755a768c3f79d355 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x19be154a7d53ea6179440059a88296014e508769bde30ee229cc4209e9379dd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kings vs. Penguins | Event: nhl-lak-pit-2024-12-17 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the match between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: la-liga-barcelona-vs-atletico-madrid | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Golden Knights vs. Sharks | Event: nh... | golden knights | 0 | nhl-playoffs-golden-knights-vs-oilers-to-advance | NHL Playoffs: Golden Knights vs. Oilers (To Advance) | 71,291,932 | 71,585,421 |
8bbafd6eda090839f3ace67a8d9e0e8ca9b236b9 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x2f4d4813b59746d5ced985170530331befb399a25acc8540061e0ac8224c9aa2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | Event: la-liga-barcelona-vs-atletico-madrid | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Golden Knights vs. Sharks | Event: nhl-las-sj-2024-12-27 | Choice: golden knights | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Oilers vs. Kings | Eve... | no | 1 | stanley-cup-winner | Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | 71,682,292 | 71,682,292 |
18da424598054391d20d80ae9cfb070f70dadbb7 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xc65ecf789a16d66ff7cb47630daff79a7a026a3377feb11ae9374bcb9e581a81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Golden Knights vs. Sharks | Event: nhl-las-sj-2024-12-27 | Choice: golden knights | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Oilers vs. Kings | Event: nhl-edm-lak-2024-12-28 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Fulham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-bou-2024-12-29 | Choice:... | no | 1 | nhl-western-conference-champion | Will the Winnipeg Jets win the Western Conference? | 71,682,292 | 71,682,292 |
ab6b43dc07cccfba6ec111784b07a925931cd594 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x96d99f2c1110ac0e7513e1b5c85cdbd6354be48718deeb4ffda1e5901e249f60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Oilers vs. Kings | Event: nhl-edm-lak-2024-12-28 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-bou-2024-12-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-mac-wes-2025-01-04 | Choi... | no | 1 | nhl-eastern-conference-champion | Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? | 72,137,784 | 72,137,784 |
9a7e176f0990255b6c7ed9990c03f1ac920c871a | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0xee49c41419021c5282902eabae4a3f58a9c3a7c20dadd8a389385509087eb881 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-bou-2024-12-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-mac-wes-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri... | no | 0.373246 | stanley-cup-winner | Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | 72,138,440 | 72,952,577 |
e712819c0c9ea5cd1b83a65c380d774b33321160 | 0x14e3abe2054dfa9a726077841b74dcb4c11cce1f | 0x6cf8b2ebe77711ab5c32fac330b8d493640cf25d278fa98bf65ddcfcb891171e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-mac-wes-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brentford win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-sou-bre-2025... | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | 72,215,524 | 72,215,524 |
aa7575f5aae1df39bbcb2494b29c5ca389e1da15 | 0x150ec2845e9fc4a543fc63dfed36437b9815549b | 0x4891ec325760ebf7bd85ef1a55826e1d23c99dc74e53e4a142613a804407c262 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25?
Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25? | 71,969,031 | 71,969,031 |
8fb29b7bd5d1219da8bbfc1bee5a665e79891bab | 0x150ec2845e9fc4a543fc63dfed36437b9815549b | 0xc10c706358aecff70c20a3e98b96fa109f4ef95ff6a3d6d03e9a22383b113197 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25?
Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confid... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25? | 71,969,036 | 71,969,036 |
3ef7ec070d5dd269e181c862b9b27be991d7cbb9 | 0x150ec2845e9fc4a543fc63dfed36437b9815549b | 0xde901512d9ad47b18796e3bdff5180eaee60d733e994685ace6ea45de3914f3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25?
Event: epl-liv-cry-2025-05-... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | 71,969,042 | 71,969,042 |
cb0daddb54e904bc6e0c3faa892fb861973cf2ba | 0x150ec2845e9fc4a543fc63dfed36437b9815549b | 0xf1ec0d1aed38ed9a3c5c87eccf208e820900317c5fbb3185373bda148c51c2ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Choice... | yes | 1 | monaco-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | 71,969,046 | 71,969,046 |
1d7d000b174989e85baa755eb24257a282aa0941 | 0x150ec2845e9fc4a543fc63dfed36437b9815549b | 0x9b3afdfae55290371175b9ffda0067e9fe5065433f0516e0a61cb27fc6f55ec0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Choice... | yes | 1 | monaco-grand-prix-winner | Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | 71,969,051 | 71,969,051 |
a848ccc9fa9dc0216b74d2823f5d64380366724a | 0x150ec2845e9fc4a543fc63dfed36437b9815549b | 0x5456fae6aa929aef333cabbd1d66131e9575c4500e2aff8c178c10bd049a8e85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Choice... | yes | 1 | monaco-grand-prix-winner | Will George Russell win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | 71,969,056 | 71,969,056 |
ece7a5a981619122289167ae5a98493db89f166f | 0x150ec2845e9fc4a543fc63dfed36437b9815549b | 0xbc1edee5626b8c92d9c77973406f5a5b6fb2ecbdbb8fa24b639c9b82c36f2b92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Choice... | yes | 1 | monaco-grand-prix-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | 71,969,061 | 71,969,061 |
e3174c3dcca7fec2324d3e250ff9f69444c4e995 | 0x150ec2845e9fc4a543fc63dfed36437b9815549b | 0xbe6da65a3a9d607e43d44fe3e6abfcfc6984ded13f575bb9ce82c61d4b49e87b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Choice... | yes | 1 | monaco-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | 71,969,066 | 71,969,066 |
9b67ed5ce6700392a4b349dcf2b6f58b934a4915 | 0x150ec2845e9fc4a543fc63dfed36437b9815549b | 0x6010dcf920657e24a05c3bc47274972815138a67582f00473d8e4af193605e8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Choice... | yes | 1 | monaco-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? | 71,969,072 | 71,969,072 |
e64153ff20e239840612578b46aa5814cdfdbf36 | 0x150ec2845e9fc4a543fc63dfed36437b9815549b | 0x136ef7cc45350da0eb7d9c32b73ae4f73178faa83b7cde6bb5e67a2976166a33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Choice... | yes | 1 | f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will George Russell win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | 72,236,336 | 72,236,336 |
4f8d96415cdaedac9828200f25fb7485c726a24b | 0x150ec2845e9fc4a543fc63dfed36437b9815549b | 0x279a6ab8f7d5f241f15a0584b26017032907e216a585f7653331bc3fc0840570 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Choice... | yes | 1 | f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | 72,236,336 | 72,236,336 |
9bfb15546c7b61f358ef838e02349fb984f965b7 | 0x150ec2845e9fc4a543fc63dfed36437b9815549b | 0x36120e8665ba4fa2b53502b86e689f8fa1c5ffba83ce3aed9837bc6da5b62682 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Choice... | yes | 1 | champions-league-final-total-goals-scored | Will five total goals be scored in regulation time? | 72,236,336 | 72,236,336 |
38feaf6bc3aeb0688d701cbdcbca0285ebe6d717 | 0x150ec2845e9fc4a543fc63dfed36437b9815549b | 0x9deb960a435fa99ab5d9f0be3b17276aafe6c98b607c419edb58a4e73a5b7974 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Choice... | yes | 1 | f1-spanish-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Spanish GP pole? | 72,236,336 | 72,236,336 |
612345d7c32aceccde6c295c9ff6c003017b9c43 | 0x150ec2845e9fc4a543fc63dfed36437b9815549b | 0xa302bb322f16936228515f23376a1181400a209a8bbf9a290eab3c5c7eb9837b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Choice... | yes | 1 | champions-league-final-total-goals-scored | Will zero total goals be scored in regulation time? | 72,236,336 | 72,236,336 |
1caa9c15871788d5747d71c4de1fdef5c8748a9e | 0x150ec2845e9fc4a543fc63dfed36437b9815549b | 0xbdb06ae278eb24a58db5836e0fb8b7a8feab9684b9bd049aea63b40f879a46b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Choice... | yes | 1 | champions-league-final-total-goals-scored | Will one total goal be scored in regulation time? | 72,236,336 | 72,236,336 |
734844bcfe9453ddc550aca41fe89da9a98a852b | 0x150ec2845e9fc4a543fc63dfed36437b9815549b | 0xd0e5de4440442fd89419b341ce956ed229ea44349289998e08f52518c9220854 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-bou-lei-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-ful-mac-2025-05-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-05-25? | Event: epl-liv-cry-2025-05-25 | Choice... | yes | 1 | champions-league-final-total-goals-scored | Will four total goals be scored in regulation time? | 72,236,336 | 72,236,336 |
49ffd440a3a0af935d317fb1b433a4b0a30f2a26 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x71497b65d423598e7ceb154b622a84127d2ff1e7dd9dbfdf6552cc59fa0aab3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year?
Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | 50,817,648 | 50,817,648 |
76471fcd17147d398b6fdbd379a608476fc24e03 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x90ca1227475d8ec24f8c65ae39543e6ec4aa061e47f1233ed2ac19421c61e3e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout?
Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out
Predict the user's choice and confid... | yes | 1 | next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | 52,394,513 | 52,394,513 |
2b56c9208f371094f42ede105f79d1f07688db37 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xe0bd0534ce9c9206ca34804ffd13abd60f8b32e2f51867803935cfe966ebb338 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
... | no | 1 | super-bowl-winner-2024 | Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl LVIII? | 52,888,385 | 52,888,385 |
23cbba03ab77deb824acd161bc8a6a75b97213bc | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xa5984ea4def5821bdaa91af925037e54d0432936586ecb294cd75bd920ddf360 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | largest-company-in-the-world-on-january-31 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world on January 31? | 52,989,207 | 52,989,207 |
d605659d9ad5213031200ecdb93c50ac93b05ffd | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x27222f2574d144cc0cf39297ace291fa4900fdf6111eb93f99f6227d4d52335a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | jup-price-one-week-after-airdrop | Will JUP be above $1.00 one week after airdrop? | 53,242,943 | 53,242,943 |
aa6267c184390494ddfb34b6c6ed5e01d1f132d5 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x7050870edde27818437a656574f3b98784ed125d911dbb1695d4401f33fc0994 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | jup-price-one-week-after-airdrop | Will JUP be between $0.70 and $1.00 one week after airdrop? | 53,242,943 | 53,242,943 |
8f4ce471b4e07e2020817daef07f595b4bcf8d51 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x079fd5cd4c762657700526c9c8066445c71be8277ff4978662905dcb3b9fda58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | super-bowl-winner-2024 | Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | 53,424,244 | 53,424,244 |
5ab3a554b19145635800f3f3a4df9337c7518d57 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xa9ebfecd3fd413de0f50bdaf8e52a32e05cc31663b9c1557eb26ba09465aaed2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | super-bowl-mvp | Will Brock Purdy win 2024 Super Bowl MVP? | 53,424,244 | 53,424,244 |
aaef16e16501994280ae42fdd7a18cb3d55220c0 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xfff55467fd4684d17e8fa7f85e4afbab169a95ffbc7e11e97e7975a2fd5493c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | super-bowl-gatorade-color | Will the Gatorade shower at 2024 Super Bowl be purple? | 53,435,273 | 53,435,273 |
f526b04f4194ea6b734eed409793100498e63f73 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x716bd79585f8b47331351f2427064b6941ae5d0f0ae4c7d778b283dc229934bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | when-will-nikki-haley-drop-out | Will Nikki Haley drop out in February? | 54,143,067 | 54,143,067 |
e794d52c420890b6b3ba4170fab9a7a95efacccd | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xd4c53aff49cda3d6cbee3e507992a4c58e35da836ef1eebbb2d6ba5ab4791f70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | when-will-caitlin-clark-break-ncaa-scoring-record | Will Caitlin Clark fail to beat Maravich's record by end of reg. season? | 54,235,796 | 54,235,796 |
c4e542c8a5740a99f6322cad51762dbe6ba2dbdc | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x419445e2f3967978e47c4a50057e516768dfee74e16b7aeef47dee2942e85b64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | when-will-nikki-haley-drop-out | Will Nikki Haley not drop out before the Republican National Convention? | 54,346,874 | 54,346,874 |
a07cbd9c6bef03f351b9193b0dcc80e24881b3dd | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x9ae978a8bc3b245e2db7776d102aaa3a7a1e9778e36b28a40bac56892fcd3c42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | oscars-2024-best-actress | Will Lily Gladstone win the Oscar for Best Actress? | 54,519,828 | 54,519,828 |
3b4ed762f6078cbef5fa32dbfb285a8698d118ca | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xa33b178ddf2a5d302853fbebf44a6b675aa7a4ef544a27f17bc9cad6f68f03a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | oscars-best-original-song | Will I'm Just Ken win the Oscar for Best Original Song? | 54,519,828 | 54,519,828 |
27f0453bbc4fc1a11e47dffff9b56c645212c81c | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x1abea748e8ef490de4fb3d1102b3aa8e6a5bdc99c8851c92bb725a374e88d855 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0.999404 | of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 50 and 74 times? | 57,059,889 | 57,059,889 |
0015c44c1fa4e5d5a36c26359d26f091f366f444 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x26d927236097b51d1fa848527e0e3b764d9028584e9dc687bf109f04f38c77ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Will Roaring Kitty tweet 100 or more times? | 57,097,641 | 57,097,641 |
20427e658fe09680732c42781924aacaee05faae | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xb4e04d77a859fe388595a78cb59d02c35e70c7dd05548ea54cd96cec234baf0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 0 | will-fauci-wear-mask-during-june-3-hearing | Will Fauci wear a mask during June 3 hearing? | 57,728,835 | 57,762,572 |
037d251f6c18928547ddf23e720b7c3ce44670c3 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x74ded21a9a02cf393b31bb49219887e01b8eb95e70743536aa166a8625931d5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | nathans-hot-dog-eating-champion | Will Geoffrey Esper eat the most hot dogs? | 58,961,892 | 58,961,892 |
9e9d19d185f844df9d5ec97f84c88acbe7e97826 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x423c6e94b687f255e283f8be5a850b0ed1cf28ccc0fb0fddcd162b2a88bf1e20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | nathans-hot-dog-eating-champion | Will James Webb eat the most hot dogs? | 58,961,963 | 58,961,963 |
8419569fc6f6144f57c63cf4c31963ea79b576ae | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x6a031c4888fcfb886861d3616cce760ea284dbf46e355b197400c2b12a4c37a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.988772 | republican-vp-nominee | Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,413,596 | 59,413,596 |
00e7ec4edfd33621267289ce0a34cc49025ed7c3 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x757fe19cced3f2136ef1dc0e0163b9996a68a330a8d2338835e3b81a31fcac91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | [Single Market] Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | 59,434,562 | 59,434,562 |
4277e5661881c631d2e2fa2bfc19a146406fd85d | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x887e0dfa4c4c39ae86ce8f4fbb5777c83b7a25d41d4ac9234fe7eb9fb183a82e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | when-will-biden-drop-out | Will Biden drop out on July 19? | 59,582,479 | 59,582,479 |
5b4f92b149810d44d60951754853b6c0759703ee | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x7d618dc4b715fd3189b3c65587dcea73fc3b1c9267b1069ebe91a380073105d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | when-will-biden-drop-out | Will Biden drop out on July 20? | 59,637,857 | 59,637,857 |
bf4e5cfee5a59b46b316eb2724580e44e2838051 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x48d8eabb731cb8c6e2ced0c6b275558266e7b205ff8bb98aad2538c0e84feb7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | when-will-biden-drop-out | Will Biden drop out on July 24? | 59,646,335 | 59,646,335 |
3dd990744e24086e159d54a8733bffc6c9ec7474 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xef1cbc0ff514de86d4d4a3b9002e88acd03b076fbf023a3518e5cfd04a9954a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | when-will-biden-drop-out | Will Biden drop out on July 22? | 59,646,335 | 59,646,335 |
6f53fa08e86efd22c916b6846aca47c78a79e5d9 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xfee7cb9350806e31ebd3d9ed6cedb4cd4f9aa600ff556a9e072067891b0327a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 0.601204 | when-will-biden-drop-out | Will Biden drop out on July 21? | 59,646,335 | 59,646,335 |
6988f5f9b65e17aae75b08a9d33ef8532a6a663f | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x83a2b14b479bd9e27496522d38bc2b56b75a085ac72af60f8c35c7210dbc0fa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Elijah Winnington (AUS) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | 59,888,259 | 59,888,259 |
bc390163b763f438dfce7b788684d1510d3cd530 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x8d7205b88286dae5f1bd78aed185bc72354df0e53b462713319ee7ea7d922400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | 59,888,259 | 59,888,259 |
2647ee7b3f445ac6e19e3d350700eabd2becafbe | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x954699b31bdb6f8a97d042f321cf99b8a58338e2db43a1cb69714c8ad0ef9b6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | 400m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 400m Freestyle? | 59,888,259 | 59,888,259 |
a354aedb40da076dded36687e4e3dc2ff83fbc68 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xed9203d4a596518ca4fceeccaf1a8cd38361626422e3e1b0e527867e7427cce2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | 400m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 400m Freestyle? | 59,888,259 | 59,888,259 |
2b63d84c467924d72efbeba4e97fd8079f94a0a8 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x1370b5becaabb147039ffd45ad8428ff70b9a2920347947259f6908bef46f4aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sam Altman be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year? | Event: 2023-time-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | 100m-butterfly-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Torri Huske (USA) win Gold in Women's 100m Butterfly? | 59,942,696 | 59,942,696 |
4cfb5b344b00deb5b767cd050a34b8eca9433c67 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xd8287363d069cab860a89eb541f1a17dbbc7ed3c48c8f2c81268f3181d7b2c3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next major GOP presidential race dropout? | Event: next-gop-presidential-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the... | no | 1 | 400m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Chase Kalisz (USA) win Gold in Men's 400m Individual Medley? | 59,942,696 | 59,942,696 |
0d81c9018d6c0eace50d61e1b6a16c0cc0f0d788 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x621b9737e311a87a6f54991c6ebe61b0fb21f850c8445efa1194faf61a2afa13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world on January 31? | Event: largest-company-in-the-world-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will JUP be ab... | no | 1 | 100m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Qianting Tang (CHN) win Gold in Women's 100m Breaststroke? | 59,979,259 | 59,979,259 |
e7163173d55827489a9a63c4fc6ad6a60a3c0d5e | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xcd4231752c8bf59c17408ca6e90323b6415732ff25d5515da5bac6be07af6212 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world on January 31? | Event: largest-company-in-the-world-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will JUP be above $1.00 one week after airdrop? | Event: jup-price-one-week-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | 200m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Zhanle Pan (CHN) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle? | 59,979,259 | 59,979,259 |
fa6520cecb20d67b136646c94d0bddf247b904b0 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xe9c3a5b9c5207021b951bc263971559c4c19d5d6cf7ad25131133362e31a1461 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JUP be above $1.00 one week after airdrop? | Event: jup-price-one-week-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will JUP be between $0.70 and $1.00 one week after airdrop? | Event: jup-price-one-week-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the San ... | yes | 1 | 200m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Will David Popovici (ROU) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle? | 59,979,259 | 59,979,259 |
423d54928517a3703d44bff8e661f0b4f892be00 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xfdcd07a9b5ed4c3b61406c4623b3395e20ba6423e15a92e00507a89f6e2b32e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JUP be between $0.70 and $1.00 one week after airdrop? | Event: jup-price-one-week-after-airdrop | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brock Purdy win... | no | 1 | 400m-individual-medley-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Freya Colbert (GBR) win Gold in Women's 400m Individual Medley? | 59,979,259 | 59,979,259 |
14b1f35e8f5df1c495a731b6ebcdc11ce0364149 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xa81cdddaa81d8521246f9093db5eef592595eac3962bd822dc26a1962dc5ddce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brock Purdy win 2024 Super Bowl MVP? | Event: super-bowl-mvp | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Gatorade shower at 2024 Super Bowl be purple? |... | no | 1 | 800m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Samuel Short (AUS) win Gold in Men's 800m Freestyle? | 60,008,838 | 60,008,838 |
e0672acaa70af6ecde27fe4816dff0f78fe65284 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x3902eeca9450fde00c3ee5aeceba6b932db642c551e3ea09b2de4451c8e3473b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brock Purdy win 2024 Super Bowl MVP? | Event: super-bowl-mvp | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Gatorade shower at 2024 Super Bowl be purple? | Event: super-bowl-gatorade-color | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nikki Haley drop out in February? | Event: ... | no | 1 | kamala-announces-vp-pick-in-july | Kamala announces VP pick in July? | 60,056,516 | 60,056,516 |
9daa8f360b50fdc7491a0028261bef9be9e12710 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xaf1381b837386a5e8821a67d7bcca9492609a8fa259e6c6077843638aeb65e53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Gatorade shower at 2024 Super Bowl be purple? | Event: super-bowl-gatorade-color | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nikki Haley drop out in February? | Event: when-will-nikki-haley-drop-out | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Caitlin Clark fail to beat Mar... | no | 1 | when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Will Kamala announce VP pick Wednesday? | 60,070,364 | 60,070,364 |
5fcf2c2d3496d8b4c98244a5640e6e99be22a77f | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x6c801092e4fa8de9a184fee0271446399b3c61b28347085cd29394ddc49e3e49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nikki Haley drop out in February? | Event: when-will-nikki-haley-drop-out | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Caitlin Clark fail to beat Maravich's record by end of reg. season? | Event: when-will-caitlin-clark-break-ncaa-scoring-record | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | bears | 1 | nfl-houston-texans-vs-chicago-bears | NFL: Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears | 60,095,773 | 60,095,773 |
723ce6e7d12446a70125bc375d5f2012cc665d7f | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x42b211c58e071ceee79b9c57deff6e578ce637eb877a0cf0598807f504c2f2b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Caitlin Clark fail to beat Maravich's record by end of reg. season? | Event: when-will-caitlin-clark-break-ncaa-scoring-record | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nikki Haley not drop out before the Republican National Convention? | Event: when-will-nikki-haley-drop-out | Ch... | yes | 1 | 200m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Individual Medley? | 60,122,754 | 60,122,754 |
d00855d23b200b77fecdc96cb7aaed1b20951ce1 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x51645dbb72ac321179c82492d1e0fe5e83a5ba036dd155259b0bc4a203558188 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nikki Haley not drop out before the Republican National Convention? | Event: when-will-nikki-haley-drop-out | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lily Gladstone win the Oscar for Best Actress? | Event: oscars-2024-best-actress | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will I... | no | 1 | iran-military-action-against-israel-by-friday | Iran military response by Friday? | 60,158,056 | 60,158,056 |
092683335120b584d07c98ac96c11af8d08d0693 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xe5fca92866ce64b8adfd6645446e25c031176001740e8cde45fe5f83e14c7b79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lily Gladstone win the Oscar for Best Actress? | Event: oscars-2024-best-actress | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will I'm Just Ken win the Oscar for Best Original Song? | Event: oscars-best-original-song | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet bet... | no | 1 | 100m-butterfly-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Maxime Grousset (FRA) win Gold in Men's 100m Butterfly? | 60,211,816 | 60,211,816 |
e55ef014f901d412caf06a80ddb8cb9de1583d95 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x9e9071636d176562592a98dfede865385ba0cff7864cfa01f0479ca6e9e26e1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will I'm Just Ken win the Oscar for Best Original Song? | Event: oscars-best-original-song | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 50 and 74 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9994039043016442
3. Question: Will R... | yes | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,263,025 | 60,263,025 |
200d3365f579e211882fc0bdac454623ace844c0 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x2d606a51f902a4d934a4b810dd77cb28bb8e40268f42354057b5a47f9799efad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 50 and 74 times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9994039043016442
2. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet 100 or more times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fauci... | no | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,263,055 | 60,263,055 |
a2f1746562c5fd5e7a1da6304c6d0b543fb26034 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xd29f58cfa231655a89d3bf2abf2897199105c92fd91a19cb664a6e98b4663fcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Roaring Kitty tweet 100 or more times? | Event: of-roaring-kitty-tweets-by-may-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fauci wear a mask during June 3 hearing? | Event: will-fauci-wear-mask-during-june-3-hearing | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Geoffrey Esper ... | no | 1 | womens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will Australia win Gold in Women's Basketball? | 60,393,233 | 60,393,233 |
001f454e4c247598dc6ffc93193a3d2e6e3f21c8 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xb4d056dc0a982103c7da56be34aedc97ee4dab65aa23be4a90b8a423d170fbfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fauci wear a mask during June 3 hearing? | Event: will-fauci-wear-mask-during-june-3-hearing | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Geoffrey Esper eat the most hot dogs? | Event: nathans-hot-dog-eating-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will James Webb eat the... | no | 1 | womens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will Belgium win Gold in Women's Basketball? | 60,401,266 | 60,401,266 |
b97cd10b0b53e31892cb170e49ed0c6a46e5f5c0 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x1ba906e40b7700d097f8a63f545a0268a7c3050d6fd27cce14cb292c34c4a8e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Geoffrey Esper eat the most hot dogs? | Event: nathans-hot-dog-eating-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will James Webb eat the most hot dogs? | Event: nathans-hot-dog-eating-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP ... | yes | 1 | mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | 60,441,447 | 60,441,447 |
e7efcdfe532992cf4a544006bf4a5c969a5c354d | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xb9bd873d80852079df0df5133758a477f21566b623519e5d843a8800abf77a39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will James Webb eat the most hot dogs? | Event: nathans-hot-dog-eating-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9887719144215151
3. Question: [Single Market] Will Vive... | no | 1 | mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will France win Gold in Men's Basketball? | 60,441,461 | 60,441,461 |
8e663d3c00da10c3038158c702737dcfcff015f9 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x9e4bec543ffb0739a08f222e32d1a0a07468fe57173e78cb2872cbe7df22e900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9887719144215151
2. Question: [Single Market] Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-... | no | 1 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Will Trump post 50 or more times this week? | 60,681,141 | 60,681,141 |
cccb64068d3b7d68fde9f21ae51c2646eccb7355 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xa26fc8cdc3493c75dd380e35e58b8d33f4c742818a81d2d9209983ba10898255 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: [Single Market] Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | Event: who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Biden drop out on July 19? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 1 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Will Trump post 16-20 times this week? | 60,681,146 | 60,681,146 |
da01dd1748ef1ac6c61d424af5c0a0696b586f26 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x8948e822b3fc3fa0be3254bff2d510eed89c75416f9e74cdb31c6b7a0ec189b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Biden drop out on July 19? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Biden drop out on July 20? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Biden drop out on July 24? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choic... | no | 1 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23 | Will Trump tweet 1 time this week? | 60,711,039 | 60,711,039 |
cb68d8685425d110c29c1e07f4ce199c2b54c5a5 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x2b0b4d7142ca159db27e301b054005de702f0caf4289b373c9d9033000e46466 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Biden drop out on July 20? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Biden drop out on July 24? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Biden drop out on July 22? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choic... | no | 1 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23 | Will Trump tweet 3 times this week? | 60,720,744 | 60,720,744 |
ca9b85451b51ef3a11503f0a983367dda14b24c9 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xf28a6d789fc1857f8748e7d02adaf00869f67339dba11ccc301fcb00c2e829e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Biden drop out on July 24? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Biden drop out on July 22? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Biden drop out on July 21? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choic... | no | 1 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23 | Will Trump tweet 9 times this week? | 60,757,201 | 60,757,201 |
b9baf43ecbd3cb253b11a0e37b22f5af846df4b3 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x9f922b176333d76d49b337ff600981167659f7e146d3fad9d90770279b347aa2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Biden drop out on July 22? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Biden drop out on July 21? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6012042069046409
3. Question: Will Elijah Winnington (AUS) win Gold in Men's 400m Frees... | yes | 1 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23 | Will Trump tweet 10 or more times this week? | 60,757,204 | 60,757,204 |
a15eec038b08c31931aaace2a3354682a29378bd | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x687d6346923293299ca98e77784b6913a7751764d9c6f44244896f24a5f95dc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Biden drop out on July 21? | Event: when-will-biden-drop-out | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6012042069046409
2. Question: Will Elijah Winnington (AUS) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lukas Marte... | no | 1 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-today | Trump mentioned between 100-124 times at the DNC today? | 60,852,024 | 60,852,024 |
a33566a15e6da1df392b83e279d165eb54c0016e | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xa27cbfff8ac7d13c4e03ff852ad9b36a5a7dd655087550154745a3c942ee2603 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elijah Winnington (AUS) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Trump mentioned between 40 and 49 times at DNC on day 3? | 60,886,735 | 60,886,735 |
418262f11e4082c093b37c280a2868f2e1efcdc8 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x35ae9dd7d4de5f7bf975ffad4f6341fbbb4101eebc7765bb3e7a16f174bc9647 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lukas Martens (GER) win Gold in Men's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Trump mentioned fewer than 20 times at DNC on day 3? | 60,886,741 | 60,886,741 |
d5cabc7b467ea2cb839ca1151fef3715a2cfbb24 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x2164ee8172d0de94bcca12e17a8d1c843f8266ffc82460b13d80de1c8652cdf2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Trump mentioned between 50 and 59 times at DNC on day 3? | 60,889,584 | 60,889,584 |
364cd7b05d6c038409cc3a0009412090d778c14c | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x6c0d3c27bff32f80848303f4f45499fd9ee64655ef673440c047913ab7e1e9d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 400m Freestyle? | Event: 400m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Torri Huske (USA) win Gold in Women's 100m Butterfly? | Event: 100m-butterfly-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Trump mentioned between 60 and 69 times at DNC on day 3? | 60,902,668 | 60,902,668 |
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