sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2956907dce3de25027133d5c4f5e1588f273b3de | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xfb4bc73159adf9ef5adcb30c0898c9210262f7650b5ca8c0e1458d7ced76c5bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torri Huske (USA) win Gold in Women's 100m Butterfly? | Event: 100m-butterfly-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chase Kalisz (USA) win Gold in Men's 400m Individual Medley? | Event: 400m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | 60,902,673 | 60,902,673 |
4bdd9bd81fb87c2f6fbb75595ca275db6c900bb0 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xf76b2df6044b522a17505a1744364d57e9100602fbe11562d3ba5becee65afc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chase Kalisz (USA) win Gold in Men's 400m Individual Medley? | Event: 400m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qianting Tang (CHN) win Gold in Women's 100m Breaststroke? | Event: 100m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | who-will-speak-at-dnc | Will Charli XCX speak at the DNC? | 60,934,085 | 60,934,085 |
0f665a86766886ebe6132419895ecf678f40038d | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x80165433d9bb813eec721329dcc3efee875e0ab17bd7fd347093f0ce50f912cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Qianting Tang (CHN) win Gold in Women's 100m Breaststroke? | Event: 100m-breaststroke-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zhanle Pan (CHN) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Kamala Harris DNC speech 75-90 minutes? | 60,934,447 | 60,934,447 |
04df3c1e5c1101bf5a7d746e790aa7fb906af716 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xcff6418c99c0653f18b9abf912518484db25b7a591bb0714faf4ce47eb188ae5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zhanle Pan (CHN) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will David Popovici (ROU) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Kamala Harris DNC speech 90 minutes or more? | 60,934,453 | 60,934,453 |
52392a9fe73c1891d8c85440dcbaefdcf08ecd62 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xdd542524d08e9ed3ef28fbe76fd944ed564a29c046b5917a797204894918d399 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will David Popovici (ROU) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle? | Event: 200m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Freya Colbert (GBR) win Gold in Women's 400m Individual Medley? | Event: 400m-individual-medley-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 1 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Trump mentioned between 20 and 39 times at the DNC on day 4? | 60,934,553 | 60,934,553 |
6b4cffcc95f42c629c9401f744039b67692c7fb5 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xc6d115d02e52d3fcaf082a074285cb8c4cf2ce0fcbdcf35a00044dc571bc1f9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Freya Colbert (GBR) win Gold in Women's 400m Individual Medley? | Event: 400m-individual-medley-w-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Samuel Short (AUS) win Gold in Men's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Trump mentioned 100+ times at the DNC on day 4? | 60,956,749 | 60,956,749 |
7b8089eda8004369022dd21692e87ef5152cdb4e | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x295220cf943286a6d0af58f888f0cb3b1f4097b3c1fbdd1bd89b896c23dc863b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samuel Short (AUS) win Gold in Men's 800m Freestyle? | Event: 800m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala announces VP pick in July? | Event: kamala-announces-vp-pick-in-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pic... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Trump posts between 15 and 19 times on X? | 61,110,612 | 61,110,612 |
e99ccbe0e94d4e4b6f0eb6ff12614753f7489e6f | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xb89d7e7cb5095ba9d9b4211b90e0982a47cabaf76a2a44ce8465c7a409784d52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala announces VP pick in July? | Event: kamala-announces-vp-pick-in-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Wednesday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: NFL: Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears | Event:... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Trump posts between 20 and 24 times on X? | 61,165,013 | 61,165,013 |
5560bb5ad52439b3395d2632f2edfcf87d3b5c24 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xe9890307bebe6c3d704ea2cfc53a075fc6de96d33dad03b8f7e59d48f01fb96d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala announce VP pick Wednesday? | Event: when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: NFL: Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears | Event: nfl-houston-texans-vs-chicago-bears | Choice: bears | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Trump posts between 25 and 29 times on X? | 61,188,141 | 61,188,141 |
2445229c7fff62f3f6ab1cb3dde2ba9b4cf1c90a | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x3f4ec299f6fbccfdf0d4854c8f38eb4e7218852dfa6339f97d393df0511571a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NFL: Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears | Event: nfl-houston-texans-vs-chicago-bears | Choice: bears | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Individual Medley? | Event: 200m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-harriswalz-interview-be | Will the Harris/Walz interview be less than 30 mins in length? | 61,221,236 | 61,221,236 |
572291c9826045283156a8f35820208b71e2150f | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x4e8171b4ed2c66b5b9dd294d37efaa34f7b50c0bb2dcc686ccd0f9e3b1c4c7fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Individual Medley? | Event: 200m-individual-medley-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Iran military response by Friday? | Event: iran-military-action-against-israel-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | how-long-will-harriswalz-interview-be | Will the Harris/Walz interview be between 30 and 45 mins in length? | 61,221,245 | 61,221,245 |
92fd2c543a8d9b174130bf300fa820b0a2a0bb9b | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x293fdb6706a483fc1fa2da5427b581de64353bbf591305a92c2ae9208fd7f749 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Iran military response by Friday? | Event: iran-military-action-against-israel-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Maxime Grousset (FRA) win Gold in Men's 100m Butterfly? | Event: 100m-butterfly-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala... | no | 1 | how-long-will-harriswalz-interview-be | Will the Harris/Walz interview be 60 mins or greater in length? | 61,227,758 | 61,227,758 |
a2f0f8ed6c0c4ed0ee5b98c136c52e911b9f657d | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x720ec286939c9ea7a120d90c1534a6d8446a550751df14cdcac406241d35dfd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Maxime Grousset (FRA) win Gold in Men's 100m Butterfly? | Event: 100m-butterfly-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | how-long-will-harriswalz-interview-be | Will the Harris/Walz interview be between 45 and 60 mins in length? | 61,227,771 | 61,227,771 |
c491d6772312d32a31aae2655ad93cb660f68b49 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xeaf9eec6a2680733c2846cc1775f26e1081f7ae0c1ab218fbf5a270a383fd4fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Trump posts 35-39 or more times on X? | 61,236,437 | 61,236,437 |
513ad2af16324f485227f0e420eb6b7550c09446 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x865e56725e3740e187300967f60e30d26fa570acebd455392adbe3507271d11e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Event: democratic-nominee-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Australia win Gold in Women's Basketball? | Event: womens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgiu... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Trump posts 30-34 or more times on X? | 61,236,461 | 61,236,461 |
ff1a4e5a970d9d73ba7c202aeb570865d5c23bba | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xb6c35ba495b9a54d1cdf4734b4e0918fc197755b7006488725709afffbef502e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Australia win Gold in Women's Basketball? | Event: womens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Belgium win Gold in Women's Basketball? | Event: womens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the USA win Gold i... | no | 1 | robin-diangelo-out-as-washington-professor-by-sept-6 | Robin DiAngelo out as Washington professor by Sept 6? | 61,524,507 | 61,524,507 |
a94c5f241805b24f1c28f90c5934b15048b0d642 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x2ff7028ac1483a23617edabfe4c53507d914ca20a9465f22b78fd6f4daa5fe0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium win Gold in Women's Basketball? | Event: womens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will France win Gold in Men'... | no | 1 | nfl-week-1-highest-scoring-game | Will Chiefs vs. Ravens be highest scoring game Week 1? | 61,588,830 | 61,588,830 |
e9fda6cb7b50d75202b3feb419a2fc67598fae25 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x7f3ec9939f8f702debea18802c0bd7f5c2b41b36b5d2f5d4b3c845402c78609e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump post 50 or more times ... | no | 1 | nfl-week-1-highest-scoring-game | Will Commanders vs. Buccaneers be the highest scoring game of Week 1? | 61,599,692 | 61,599,692 |
8fa3361246ad9490b5794daffa9271c19cbedd9a | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xbb46b38bee9c0a1b5b0ea540c747a2520944c44d522a4aca1abca8b5fc8a3804 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 50 or more times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump post 16-20 tim... | yes | 1 | nfl-week-1-highest-scoring-game | Will Packers vs. Eagles be the highest scoring game of Week 1? | 61,658,153 | 61,658,153 |
0ee71dfea6856f00bda75ca520c87454974a556c | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x41b696cdb0a8929544102ba8ed76c114d4f5ccf556fdef1c23460b300de7d90f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post 50 or more times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 16-20 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 1 t... | no | 1 | how-many-viewers-will-the-debate-get | Will the debate have less than 50 million viewers? | 61,722,225 | 61,722,225 |
0d9e9f16b53e3b0b4ccc91734bd9cc37032fcc1f | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x9a7afbdc9417e5459ed26114584494621ad408b76ce80d4a4789ba05400187a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post 16-20 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 1 time this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 3 tim... | no | 1 | nfl-week-2-highest-scoring-game | Will Dolphins vs. Bills be the highest scoring game of Week 2? | 61,884,939 | 61,884,939 |
5433f41cd05ebcd862ee1c86cd76fae3da24bd8c | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x0c2117fd392c14dcef8c885c521fdaea91aa3311d11075c1b07b10b139140211 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 1 time this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 3 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 9... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-new-york-rally | Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Uniondale rally? | 61,999,369 | 61,999,369 |
146ea4bab5263d8c7d65cb2fe6bd6efe70795fe1 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x35d88d6d0f70ae626f253158a49072d01b6fa992876fb0a8045e93bb40e12649 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 3 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 9 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet ... | no | 1 | nfl-week-3-highest-scoring-game | Will Jets vs. Patriots be the highest scoring game of Week 3? | 62,157,432 | 62,157,432 |
d725bfcaa678cd1b49e0fc52499508bf24c845f3 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x63b3c75dd12d151328dd1fb1a139d1a017ed7e3d47de5d060833dc81a7f6adca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 9 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 10 or more times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump m... | no | 1 | nfl-week-3-highest-scoring-game | Will Raiders vs. Panthers be the highest scoring game of Week 3? | 62,207,629 | 62,207,629 |
5adcdb842b0cc222eedaae167f9bb810d978ea12 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x403fecd560382c5bc6243b0cbf4eecaba8068981fee3ec6844fca5d218b1431a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 10 or more times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned between 100-124 times at the DNC today? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-today | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump me... | no | 1 | nfl-week-3-highest-scoring-game | Will Falcons vs. Chiefs be the highest scoring game of Week 3? | 62,207,636 | 62,207,636 |
64f33915029dcb90f69def04ee5fe3bdce3665ae | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xe7d096c33bff4d81499aebb1fb21e83445482d69461b980bafcb2e8a6e1faa5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned between 100-124 times at the DNC today? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-today | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned between 40 and 49 times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump mentioned fe... | no | 1 | how-many-viewers-will-the-vp-debate-get | Will the VP debate have 65m or more viewers? | 62,570,294 | 62,570,294 |
549444de4d635b1c59af7892f4b3f316c40ffa9b | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x83e814bf26f77f0ccd495a14193e052bbeeadf5495709a1fc51895def6104c31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned between 40 and 49 times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned fewer than 20 times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump mentioned betwe... | no | 1 | how-many-viewers-will-the-vp-debate-get | Will the VP debate have 60-65m viewers? | 62,570,320 | 62,570,320 |
d9ec22ac15b22ad712987e8552a9c831418b68d7 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x33514403a2a14bb2e63e056d49a9f8297888add68606a96cf244cafb5a70666b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned fewer than 20 times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned between 50 and 59 times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump mentioned betwe... | no | 1 | national-league-winner | Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the National League? | 62,611,798 | 62,611,798 |
9d791cbea097b4423c651d6a847ecfbdbdef0e35 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xf4ce22d993861fa476eb3eafbd6ae71741f8d481c1387138ee9b424c1de51f94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned between 50 and 59 times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned between 60 and 69 times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump mentioned 7... | no | 1 | joker-folie-deux-cinemascore | Will CinemaScore give 'Joker: Folie à Deux' a B? | 62,656,019 | 62,656,019 |
df2aff42e3bdafa31b27b0c205249680b9df4668 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x548788fb144eee9f379e71eabd44df876fcd05daf3a02fd978e3f033c06d3fa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned between 60 and 69 times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Charli XCX speak a... | no | 1 | joker-folie-deux-cinemascore | Will CinemaScore give 'Joker: Folie à Deux' an A? | 62,656,024 | 62,656,024 |
598f1c4eafe30910c3339eac67be1bb1073ab5ce | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x116d18f2880589f488f83cee678247a4351790659b61ae127dffe0ee070a489c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned 70 or more times at DNC on day 3? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Charli XCX speak at the DNC? | Event: who-will-speak-at-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 75-90 minutes? | Event: how... | no | 0.999955 | joker-folie-deux-cinemascore | Will CinemaScore give 'Joker: Folie à Deux' an F? | 62,656,033 | 62,656,033 |
145f209fee530962c794de7781364500226bbcaf | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xae144f90132b1461dc170fccf4e8a386fb604819346ad9ddce20061046e5258b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Charli XCX speak at the DNC? | Event: who-will-speak-at-dnc | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 75-90 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 90 minutes or more? | E... | yes | 1 | joker-folie-deux-cinemascore | Will CinemaScore give 'Joker: Folie à Deux' a D? | 62,656,038 | 62,656,038 |
a742c263d70ecadd468d920b17b3f986e53be101 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x4b1187f6e3c946013ad8f75a747f99810592ed11780c1fc7389789bc61086329 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 75-90 minutes? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 90 minutes or more? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump mentioned ... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-rally-oct-5 | Will Trump say "Tesla" during Pennsylvania rally? | 62,685,430 | 62,685,430 |
208292e7af345d536acdc66f86286b928c1586c4 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x6d36f4493b17fb74726e3bef5c81666efa6a559bfc8887640e03a191085e9487 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris DNC speech 90 minutes or more? | Event: how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned between 20 and 39 times at the DNC on day 4? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump ment... | no | 1 | joker-folie-deux-opening-weekend-box-office-cont | Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $48-54m opening weekend? | 62,774,146 | 62,774,146 |
4efeb4578743378d30908dd2c054f98b17917d5a | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x7b6fa3693de0ea68d5e30c9a13446bccd91a4f3134c86c8f0ccdbd33b632ddb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned between 20 and 39 times at the DNC on day 4? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump mentioned 100+ times at the DNC on day 4? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump posts between 15... | no | 1 | joker-folie-deux-opening-weekend-box-office-cont | Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $54-60m opening weekend? | 62,774,167 | 62,774,167 |
1e0ff9b8281d1be46a2c1995b85e0caafa4727d9 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x955979be4b0dd8d6b5da7da2f080d2de221e8f2bec18bbceab3fa73ce41735fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump mentioned 100+ times at the DNC on day 4? | Event: trump-mentions-at-dnc-day-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump posts between 15 and 19 times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump posts between 20 and 24 tim... | no | 1 | joker-folie-deux-opening-weekend-box-office-cont | Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $60-66m opening weekend? | 62,774,174 | 62,774,174 |
d294a9cdefa93ad2611fdc4f9edd352ecd1d2598 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x83e587b85a06ee7fa4cb4a1ed6bf4eb3a5970bb7d3f9571fb3ba1e625f2621c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump posts between 15 and 19 times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump posts between 20 and 24 times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump posts between 25 and 29 t... | no | 1 | joker-folie-deux-opening-weekend-box-office-cont | Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross more than $66m opening weekend? | 62,774,203 | 62,774,203 |
c3ece5c50b92a1c1414705bdb69a5939224b1cfb | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xa1afa8b59eef6e38be872b71ecabe01fe557fd705cf4c99245957e165521e6ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump posts between 20 and 24 times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump posts between 25 and 29 times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Harris/Walz interview ... | no | 1 | joker-folie-deux-opening-weekend-box-office-cont | Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $48m opening weekend? | 62,774,228 | 62,774,228 |
5be882336a593f81c0e7af6fc72feaeeede03904 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x86ea71e6ef7236e77a5d7976bfacc58f0b9144652579975537eea7cbf469c79c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump posts between 25 and 29 times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Harris/Walz interview be less than 30 mins in length? | Event: how-long-will-harriswalz-interview-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will th... | no | 1 | american-league-winner | Will the Detroit Tigers win the American League? | 62,966,204 | 62,966,204 |
67a78499b16b644d4ea304ed79b3296a907a3a2c | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0xf282011680e83158a9d921a81ab69e47ca53a8843bb8d6f2f0abf3a4f3a965c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Harris/Walz interview be less than 30 mins in length? | Event: how-long-will-harriswalz-interview-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Harris/Walz interview be between 30 and 45 mins in length? | Event: how-long-will-harriswalz-interview-be | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-all-female-town-hall | Will Trump say "Abortion" 5 or more times during all female town hall? | 63,119,220 | 63,119,220 |
b1c79a4084c492ebd73de0e994906760ac2ff72f | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x89d3924a688d2378aad57b98cb613b9e1878d35d272a594474834472f592ffd0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Harris/Walz interview be between 30 and 45 mins in length? | Event: how-long-will-harriswalz-interview-be | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Harris/Walz interview be 60 mins or greater in length? | Event: how-long-will-harriswalz-interview-be | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 1 | national-league-winner | Will the New York Mets win the National League? | 63,312,576 | 63,312,576 |
cc0310b96f0efe412b043547746b9e058801afdb | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x0f5d9897e3345a731ac36657fff9def6f9907dff9fc44024db53bd6df5ff904f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Harris/Walz interview be 60 mins or greater in length? | Event: how-long-will-harriswalz-interview-be | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Harris/Walz interview be between 45 and 60 mins in length? | Event: how-long-will-harriswalz-interview-be | Choice: no | Confiden... | yes | 1 | national-league-winner | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the National League? | 63,312,793 | 63,312,793 |
a2a850d78a89a82ab1e10dd9700707c9972deac3 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x1c144efad98e9dcc9fca8ffb410aed4b3e9a403836f7a34462de6eb402367ccd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Harris/Walz interview be between 45 and 60 mins in length? | Event: how-long-will-harriswalz-interview-be | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump posts 35-39 or more times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump p... | no | 1 | what-will-vance-say-during-rogan-podcast | Will JD Vance say "Epstein" during the Joe Rogan podcast? | 63,780,953 | 63,780,953 |
892ed376a838ac4ca6aac656286a5eb32109e433 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x67d2bcb7a91e89e038fd81dd724622e7aba4c8db28e18133fc75ba02db1a05a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump posts 35-39 or more times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump posts 30-34 or more times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Robin DiAngelo out as Washington profes... | no | 1 | maryland-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Maryland Presidential Election? | 63,968,743 | 63,968,743 |
a3ef389a64f67a77d4fbe0249953a9d818714a9e | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x05a16ffcfaa6948233c1cc448f87acddf1ea144597b424739dd4a2e07f397b04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump posts 30-34 or more times on X? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Robin DiAngelo out as Washington professor by Sept 6? | Event: robin-diangelo-out-as-washington-professor-by-sept-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will C... | no | 1 | delaware-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Republican win Delaware Presidential Election? | 63,968,790 | 63,968,790 |
7443736423d80e2b004c499f385822bad20aae67 | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x325038359610a566c0963c9f0ea2ea33b2ddedf7808898c4ed4166787213f1b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Robin DiAngelo out as Washington professor by Sept 6? | Event: robin-diangelo-out-as-washington-professor-by-sept-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chiefs vs. Ravens be highest scoring game Week 1? | Event: nfl-week-1-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | trump-sentenced-to-how-much-prison-time | Trump sentenced to no prison time? | 63,972,799 | 63,972,799 |
d64f55c9cdcd41ee9e8649998d719226a7d9a5fd | 0x1514989043233940203f7457cae4542b1bf42624 | 0x6964df311eba3add433112c9ab13ef529c8e2e07e7c115b9cc548de035f5b25f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chiefs vs. Ravens be highest scoring game Week 1? | Event: nfl-week-1-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Commanders vs. Buccaneers be the highest scoring game of Week 1? | Event: nfl-week-1-highest-scoring-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | california-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win California Presidential Election? | 63,972,841 | 63,972,881 |
c8d57ecfc85270a848f839dc7349b7c516447fb5 | 0x155b680bd2a3918485763b2a1642380a5c107aaf | 0x047e9ccb5d54c9e883f1fe983fe8bc15e120568ec55ba8da74bb3129725a589b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | 78,593,094 | 78,593,094 |
e6ef05e08671069e6eb5efccba4c36675d72e7fb | 0x155b680bd2a3918485763b2a1642380a5c107aaf | 0xc37f30650d32a7f17994b087ee91435fcffc90b8db65925a81a8e074f737c435 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1?
Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-o... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lower-strikes | Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | 79,292,622 | 79,292,622 |
b098b47c3593ffb2add3eaf35317dae860387213 | 0x155b680bd2a3918485763b2a1642380a5c107aaf | 0x77a475ba632ec177d4caeaa8d21fac4e55b6816f7b8bf258a640d9774a894a80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-19 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on November 19? | 79,317,379 | 79,317,379 |
a72c2dbbdd554e7290ac25f2533c934ae48815b7 | 0x155b680bd2a3918485763b2a1642380a5c107aaf | 0x3b4d3c7478fdfc9cf9d0fc768fee917b9507794be8d222ccb756c1eea31c2953 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lo... | no | 1 | where-will-brian-thomas-jr-be-traded | Will Brian Thomas Jr. not be traded? | 79,331,412 | 79,331,412 |
c78ad802c90f178e5d523dc18bb0a40e55509480 | 0x155b680bd2a3918485763b2a1642380a5c107aaf | 0x4b24727d913083898f83c2036c52e062e919b0eed48ced5dcba1d5ffcb679c13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lo... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-764 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 | 79,331,412 | 79,331,412 |
7051928a4d6987270d1b5ab7bb064ec186c655c3 | 0x155b680bd2a3918485763b2a1642380a5c107aaf | 0x506e6421d2a401a3afc4f7d497348938b3c80653f5396c1a72ae127af81f56cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-18 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 18? | 79,331,412 | 79,331,412 |
84ea64041e3acd46acfdaf91df788bad446c3b39 | 0x155b680bd2a3918485763b2a1642380a5c107aaf | 0x51599d75eace329fa6169208de75ce840254d9b8cf92c4cd79b6c384d3765238 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lo... | yes | 1 | where-will-brian-thomas-jr-be-traded | Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded to the Buffalo Bills? | 79,331,412 | 79,331,412 |
0a37a4ee8e878d7fbdeaebff27c952fb52b70573 | 0x155b680bd2a3918485763b2a1642380a5c107aaf | 0x857973f633b94ae3e9a2f7d2071dbbfe3f3c22e4f5bc4df6fb04f4a8d9dcdf18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lo... | yes | 1 | where-will-chris-olave-be-traded | Will Chris Olave be traded to the Washington Commanders? | 79,331,412 | 79,331,412 |
901d1808750fbb67469a38f42f2d5ddf6423a433 | 0x155b680bd2a3918485763b2a1642380a5c107aaf | 0xc2d8276ae546ae4c0cf97ddd88af8542cd105098af13503002a13f81f092400c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-18 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 18? | 79,331,412 | 79,331,412 |
3b341d6cf87147763e8f2ba47e0fae56807cf429 | 0x155b680bd2a3918485763b2a1642380a5c107aaf | 0xd05e246637063e508924b274e24843400366c915beaebc484a21f34bc8fecd42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lo... | yes | 1 | where-will-brian-thomas-jr-be-traded | Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded to another team? | 79,331,412 | 79,331,412 |
ff0ed8365dd4aea0e089e024d6e12cd28fed965b | 0x155b680bd2a3918485763b2a1642380a5c107aaf | 0xd36c021f2282ab1f849c547d38f833ad0bcd81f169e3cf1dc569c5e1816aaab9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lo... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-19 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 40°F or below on November 19? | 79,331,412 | 79,331,412 |
baf683aeab6ead0e274c4126f22b6b60b2096ca5 | 0x155b680bd2a3918485763b2a1642380a5c107aaf | 0xfcef9c9c33b5f881c15774880d82e2082ab347fab32ff672d6bc5de681084f07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lo... | yes | 1 | where-will-brian-thomas-jr-be-traded | Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded to the Denver Broncos? | 79,331,412 | 79,331,412 |
b79662101682ea91def0cae6007378e9bf54460c | 0x155b680bd2a3918485763b2a1642380a5c107aaf | 0x15a7d4ad10ca629d61639a6ea68bfe4967a10b40a87922c6b7976b18a6207604 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lo... | yes | 1 | where-will-chris-olave-be-traded | Will Chris Olave be traded to another team? | 79,331,413 | 79,331,413 |
091f54cb7805c177c28ed45d6af0d4f6f053d5f9 | 0x155b680bd2a3918485763b2a1642380a5c107aaf | 0x1c8985f8b9a9393feba4d871ace4381c6b5b2831e94ccb5a394579e9e676187f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lo... | yes | 1 | where-will-brian-thomas-jr-be-traded | Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers? | 79,331,413 | 79,331,413 |
57e0c43b73b03df7ccb24a73aaeb826c3bc018a7 | 0x155b680bd2a3918485763b2a1642380a5c107aaf | 0x3bf2d974055970dfccf08bca5390cf961fc2470c6e0a7d1daf4855ccf0f60589 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-28-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's trap video get between 50 and 55 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-lo... | yes | 1 | where-will-chris-olave-be-traded | Will Chris Olave be traded to the New York Jets? | 79,331,413 | 79,331,413 |
2e4145263e415f8e6f883dbe89423d5e9b73df6c | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x96a19b471abe54716c4e15ec47d47c48472722f032a3235120a814b5a1275d05 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025)
Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale... | no | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | 79,503,852 | 79,503,852 |
80c7818d6588875e6fafb8efd2625c4a18cb3454 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xb16f83a1df29cecbb2627045cd59b712fc94f1358ae6c4d5de22ae6048fcf0b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025)
E... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | 79,503,852 | 79,503,852 |
f3f8342bb2a29c957767bf7ad255ee77ac8cbeeb | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x1b5651c620d556f10d72c75b42846c620ea26b749f9439154c872fdff9177584 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | dancing-with-the-stars-season-34-winner | Will Dylan Efron & Daniella Karagach win Dancing with the Stars Season 34? | 79,518,460 | 79,518,460 |
7dd1e3feb4fe6b770c73a6ade6712ce07235166a | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x535f9e2347986640e56e10b29e322b6cb85c8b3dc8a8aca13afeab36b64721b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | dancing-with-the-stars-season-34-winner | Will Alix Earle & Val Chmerkovskiy win Dancing with the Stars Season 34? | 79,518,460 | 79,518,460 |
8181a595bb8d99829de1f812c970cdf73c15c34d | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x7ce0e57d115ca44e5efb1c97973ece8ed1b08765dfeac2a4143fe693d5c7bbb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-25 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 25? | 79,523,134 | 79,523,134 |
32546ef39f1e6bc8581b5798129c33b652fe0287 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xe47efac8e8c964465d9c9b19431b7520fcf9fa65bf084d09516f538178679a58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-25 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on November 25? | 79,523,134 | 79,523,134 |
4bee063fbad69b38983ef2a4e74c7e7a497e27c4 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xa0370439396128956bea54ff33d1f8d17faf2e7ab10ab7e87e2ac7d5f5b22800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | bank-of-japan-decision-in-december | Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | 79,523,835 | 79,740,831 |
1a11bfec151da7fe7d277b6808c8ea460c175ce9 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xa87d1e3d9cd503b2f89bd5f1b6c061fcbd09a16b31ba7164f5c921270e087200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | democratic-nominee-for-florida-governor | Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? | 79,523,836 | 79,523,877 |
9ec27fb6123d89d9e6b3377602edadd3a7bf2521 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x91eb615013098c0480e1ade0bf538d2c08312b03f76e19da7f5a0d7d61c7a100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | 79,523,838 | 79,995,058 |
10094d06df2c3ada67946c754a50031c3885cae7 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x9db10f4a7fe937fdfcbfe635db2a4e5863fc1278f0ba97b41492942f81274c00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2025 | Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? | 79,523,840 | 79,523,840 |
90344c461253edf365db249cdc25efd55164eacb | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x621cbfd923ae0b292a28b1e702e9a4912d86ddd7b3d17b8b992016417a32a800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | ut-01-democratic-primary-winner | Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? | 79,523,842 | 79,523,842 |
edbf00b5ffca2fb6188ad84337bbb11592feb2a2 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x559854310b415ad65319000452e227b7b3f7483f91909a41f772690de6fdf300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | va-02-democratic-primary-winner | Will James Osyf be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? | 79,523,843 | 79,523,843 |
a414aba9fae2d6175bfa9065527212475e141466 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x815ceeb7ff0eb5da4e36bb0256efca70e198d498d236bcacb0268fb413b72000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2025-higher-strikes | Will Gold close below $3200 at the end of 2025? | 79,523,844 | 79,618,701 |
edb26f0b3ba226ef6f1895cf74be0214fa804874 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xbad23cc36ff2ef76e34d42b3bd7d6b67b25c1aa1af0580e9c970705eb1441100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | what-will-be-the-2-global-netflix-show-this-week | Will "The Witcher: Season 4" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025) | 79,523,845 | 79,710,085 |
c8bb95f8243a1a9909355323e64be3ef3d833396 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x0988e77ed51d8e78f5a210eeb5b18cdb04fe71132ebda6d4217229b0a1742a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | 79,523,846 | 79,998,054 |
21be35898dfacf6a3ccfc480669a50993daf46c2 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x97fdb58b6c2075420ac6864fa2637a4d30589100387d0d0e2e0e03a79be4a200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | tn-07-special-election-margin-of-victory | Will Van Epps win TN-07 by 20% or more? | 79,525,798 | 79,525,798 |
db6032297a7c754f679c4e5f67a42023d48cc20e | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xc92b04f29eb3cfa59e891261d18a05333981785b31b4ff84d6e930077f4a6a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | 3rd-largest-company-end-of-november | Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | 79,527,229 | 79,527,229 |
77285edc368bc2fb1b59d2a80aafd1d66269109f | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xf9461324c14ea21825c5af7565152da1695b22dfde1872c4ccef986ca0bacc00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-november | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? | 79,527,291 | 79,527,291 |
8236b1ce47d0cedccf72da1d9dc122dd1bb994fe | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x2865bafeea4a20e56f8a6e463c2440ccb71114508587928fa1fc9098eda49c00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-759 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | 79,528,046 | 79,528,046 |
19779c56bb9373ec0b8f575358df93ac71ca808c | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x71f93b23545e6fefadf347f9fa40a358d80df7b4740e794c7f39d9fe1f296800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | tx-31-republican-primary-winner | Will John Carter be the Republican nominee for TX-31? | 79,529,197 | 79,529,206 |
5b38e108a4aa0cfaaf9d140fc7fbf20901048c37 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x8d9540f4caef531e7065998ff291ba9038588cfe647d8f4822f892112df86f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-december | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | 79,529,471 | 79,813,781 |
a30867d1f74a95c4118b89af408920229396afe3 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x400af4b42323f44c2a885a011c400d1d212273297591db90604bf03d2ff1f000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-new-york-city-council | Will Julie Menin be the next Speaker of the New York City Council? | 79,535,660 | 79,535,660 |
f1fa2f429c512cd66b61863552ca00a53bebea1c | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x661d31578fd6a88f5e2e894dc86800cfcc2b3da291e0fae4dcb62c9e294ef300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-488 | Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 2 2025) | 79,536,894 | 79,536,894 |
2364899267844750d4a0ae438ce9b24c436ff011 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x6d54124065937e5e6dd986502bd453d3f63c7495be577700fc13cf33fb604900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | 2nd-largest-company-end-of-november | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | 79,537,838 | 79,541,328 |
9fc5772f3fc722d9d28e0dcd45445865da3f1338 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x4714f4189125bba4cb9e6f9e8b5757ebd34a5be31379c33a665e4b0ca9738600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-as-fed-chair | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 79,541,223 | 79,998,484 |
daef9501f637435221fa82270612986c68d7ee64 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xe732207eed3d6f20e6a64926b9caaa9b5dc5a4d0a84d5f84eed72c1321736500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be 48°F or below on November 28? | 79,543,401 | 79,543,401 |
02c75bba381c53bd791caad3598486258f9d79db | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xed977170adf8d7578b94cc4eac502107e5fa176891f9d0002a572a957f27ba00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | where-will-it-snow-first | Will Chicago record the first snowfall? | 79,550,974 | 79,550,974 |
84dc16c8eb4a5462ce808d97e77b8d8236063b34 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xe69a1abce7de87e671afbeed844123cb4ce35aa7902c7fd11b069b4617d0d200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | uganda-presidential-election | Will Yoweri Kaguta Museveni win the 2026 Ugandan presidential election? | 79,557,855 | 79,557,855 |
70e574c5fabe249fc9d4805b8661ae8e332fe9bd | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x23d058d6e4f9446e2b494e2ee30aee25b2232d1361851866f82df130bd5f1de0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or higher on November 26? | 79,563,982 | 79,563,982 |
ee2384af288ab6f3b1d2fcf2efa9ee4a9f26b06c | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x662ec645a4070992d73b15fef6dd726f61bea72ff790c030492f597e7b0abb00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 1 | portugal-presidential-election | Will Tim Vieira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | 79,564,004 | 79,564,004 |
4254868b7ab0bb7af974eb04d95e2c153ac18556 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x77eaf36a80197a13ff32e31f05b54e824a6fd21d93f1001abcc18ba8d9a7ed16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-... | no | 0.974424 | which-movie-has-best-opening-weekend-in-2025 | Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | 79,564,017 | 79,610,704 |
098abc7fb3f1cd32e5e62e0d269c9e719962ca69 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x251fa8367064bb77cb866c91e604e7e3836f706d2a33996a11335eb5c4422df0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-361 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dylan Efron & Daniella Karagach win Dancing with the Stars Season 34? | Event: dancing-wit... | no | 0.104653 | 1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year | Will Anora be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? | 79,564,017 | 79,868,012 |
58e7467702e1c643827eb9efa48b2bb0584e8d49 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x9f94a64ef41e6dac629e0f9bad34bc02ba241d3119c697e535f86c724f514800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dylan Efron & Daniella Karagach win Dancing with the Stars Season 34? | Event: dancing-with-the-stars-season-34-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alix Earle & Val Chmerkovskiy win Dancing with the Stars Season 34? | Event: dancing-with-the-stars-season-34-winner | C... | no | 1 | where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-393 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? | 79,567,418 | 79,567,430 |
019f83680e4968c6d97140ddb80a91f22d6fbb9f | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xda77297a0b9e80b925b132103047e910b399d1bcfb98449408779795d7128000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alix Earle & Val Chmerkovskiy win Dancing with the Stars Season 34? | Event: dancing-with-the-stars-season-34-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-novembe... | no | 1 | new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner | Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? | 79,567,457 | 79,567,457 |
f0923e949d3024fa68a587414224cb0389e588e1 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xdcd7daabcacdc4ecf4f9a48d0a2708b52f356dd086c8070992136da62eb72b00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on November 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-o... | no | 1 | how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 79,568,699 | 79,568,699 |
0d60e2fb2d764f2fd0e65e18be86fb65cc230728 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x3941d7880031075be18180d24fa99707c815c15861aa69a20bbd8b829b11ab00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on November 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Event: bank-of-japan-decision-in-december | Choi... | no | 1 | second-highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Will Avatar 3 be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? | 79,570,666 | 79,570,666 |
8233e13e71407d32e5a945900b6a26021823d736 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x6702add14c8e48a12a1084d68761824393eab42d844b9c7a8852edbb2c060300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Event: bank-of-japan-decision-in-december | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? | Event: democratic-nominee-for-florida-governor | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 1 | honduras-presidential-election | Will Mario Rivera Callejas win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | 79,571,691 | 79,571,691 |
5788d8971adcf100ab68b4bc1bfb008e1ee68491 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x7fb7c5b533f51a6071719f91ad014eeab260a995442e2e8041501e22c8c9a200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? | Event: democratic-nominee-for-florida-governor | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 1 | largest-company-end-of-2025 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 79,580,863 | 79,957,198 |
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