sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
e86d9bacd664dcfb6c1fda16de1083e4b4256524 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x81f3219cf25708bbf9b5eda3fcdd47168f87fe764c150a005fcc7a9e5e384f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? | Event: how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben McAdams be the D... | no | 1 | bucharest-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory | Will Ciucu win by 0-3%? | 79,581,534 | 79,581,534 |
11dbd5e6802c2b7f24bd4355e1a4691754a4a3dd | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x4156b58187c422710147d4e7682400aa34bdb82693dc513a09e85d3af8912300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? | Event: how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? | Event: ut-01-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will James Osyf be ... | no | 1 | chile-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-second-round | Will Kast win by less than 5%? | 79,582,622 | 79,582,622 |
0e322bdf80b8a805664c8c432f635a0f0be0c566 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x1e5e3be2e7703a087e4b3491aa6246cfd85694fedc121f325afda952ae1f9200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? | Event: ut-01-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will James Osyf be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? | Event: va-02-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gold close ... | no | 1 | largest-company-end-of-november | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | 79,587,671 | 79,615,630 |
c1c2b5d19b1db02572c663bcd61094154e10a7f8 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xa7f80566810e5673620777aa482480bd140d24f51024a447a974c19abd09b400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will James Osyf be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? | Event: va-02-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gold close below $3200 at the end of 2025? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2025-higher-strikes | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | saint-vincent-and-the-grenadines-legislative-election-winner | Will the Unity Labour Party (ULP) win the most elected seats in the 2025 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines House of Assembly election? | 79,591,865 | 79,591,865 |
56380278bb67806b734f98271fef1f230e42f754 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x4ec8bd98a5e6719bc7cc32116b37a57baec2f70a843a7a15279ccd24419ff769 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close below $3200 at the end of 2025? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2025-higher-strikes | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Witcher: Season 4" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-2-global-netflix-show-th... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-27 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or higher on November 27? | 79,610,678 | 79,610,678 |
1e9997f24e52b3ac5ce2f8c52421df1649fb6db4 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x0d97e25f1830a3f18d5b4d43e6e1648d3b8b781e3c254a0b9d2c07a62f505100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Witcher: Season 4" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-2-global-netflix-show-this-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-january | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | 79,618,564 | 79,838,199 |
d03be70284b001480ca8e7d95ff157114c517298 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x54c2a25bc7f8c4f2c16aaec46626c556f45bf077d23c4b91b786aa5a99dca500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Van Epps win TN-07 by 20% or more? | Event: tn-07-special-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will NVIDIA ... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-november-28 | Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.5 on November 28, 2025? | 79,621,177 | 79,654,762 |
d07566225225e548eff4764b3df1ac18528ae049 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x887dff2fda7b070e8cc666624635d17f04a1dd41db461247f9ddfab140150100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Van Epps win TN-07 by 20% or more? | Event: tn-07-special-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Event: 3rd-largest-company-end-of-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | who-will-be-voted-off-survivor-season-49-on-december-3 | Will Savannah Louie be voted off of Survivor season 49 on December 3? | 79,624,838 | 79,799,615 |
7e5d6ea83fe9a63ab8dbd7c00a7b52f72896c884 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x65e4c88ce3adf9ce9527b6fc8cba340c6557cbced482cbffa8b0fcee45c50a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Event: 3rd-largest-company-end-of-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-november... | no | 1 | survivor-49-winner | Will Savannah Louie win Survivor season 49? | 79,624,879 | 79,624,879 |
b62c0505e479074434c926d9ff713177f74a7c2f | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xf22dc322b48c12ba8c4b1cf3f004991398416a80d1a3c06348346ad6b357cf00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-759 | Choi... | no | 1 | which-company-will-have-the-best-ai-model-for-math-at-the-end-of-2025 | Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? | 79,625,756 | 79,934,806 |
eddefb4f338d313e0a0b04e0f0df8753052859aa | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x64dde149b5b18db77e750e6f5736651c8ec13c845bcb083e7d0d45227c103600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-759 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will John Carter be the Republican nominee for TX-31? | Event: tx-31-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | which-party-holds-the-most-seats-after-argentina-deputies-election | Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election? | 79,638,220 | 79,678,489 |
2563e246f0ee28456000bfdbe7d5e66d52a60f7a | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x414e0e3c3ec377cb4e4c6ba7df945013fe93a30bf0d3cc8bba2d3db441899a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will John Carter be the Republican nominee for TX-31? | Event: tx-31-republican-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-december | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ju... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-30 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 42°F or below on November 30? | 79,648,666 | 79,648,695 |
5c8076e7afd4e3a4075c55fead726eb5547ff696 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x187a136853b5643ad1261f83f8cb615b590d3f7dd36fd299af424e7f68d93a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-december | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Julie Menin be the next Speaker of the New York City Council? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-new-york-city-council | Choice: no... | no | 1 | 1-searched-person-on-google-this-year | Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | 79,649,298 | 79,720,441 |
1916ed7ca97f521b84b5e2ced9b0cf31547a8e28 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x0c311565a2bb5c0cc1c28c2b6237f26bee66058ae1876a074816b9a4c2db7900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Julie Menin be the next Speaker of the New York City Council? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-new-york-city-council | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 2 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-glob... | no | 1 | 2nd-largest-company-end-of-2025 | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 79,650,037 | 79,745,784 |
1d1a1be2c37177e4667388028fae098a2f46ad86 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x85ccf8580d1071e0293df1cb1ae844a446b0a79ddbc933a6b0e0cf4fef08dc00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 2 2025) | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-488 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Event: 2nd-large... | no | 1 | 2-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-december-5 | Will Shop: All your favorite brands be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? | 79,656,182 | 79,823,329 |
d1b5e1bac6d0e7288382cf3b5948a46a56ed25fb | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x223d79df81338c2c00e4c10a48736cee5aa3f66a3b25c5f740b54fc812178500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Event: 2nd-largest-company-end-of-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-as-fed-chair | Choice: no | Con... | no | 1 | next-prime-minister-of-hungary | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 79,657,030 | 79,882,475 |
aa43c96cb46d9b6bae6717660575d057985439f6 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xab9c5359697e72598b30d11d88fa7ec96abae8ffdf1af29c858f8f44fd25f300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-as-fed-chair | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 48°F or below on November 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-28 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 1 | the-game-awards-best-multiplayer-game | Will Arc Raiders win Best Multiplayer Game at the 2025 Game Awards? | 79,665,930 | 79,686,954 |
133e0147eaed64f0247a5bb53b4404267fd85fd3 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x6968783eb67448d16596ce751ca3a61168ada11a7f5eaaa51076f3773e569a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 48°F or below on November 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chicago record the first snowfall? | Event: where-will-it-snow-first | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | the-game-awards-best-independent-game | Will Absolum win Best Independent Game at the 2025 Game Awards? | 79,666,027 | 79,977,171 |
60359ecd312c43e0d4a90d1efdd19c53af4229c1 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xed8813bf297831ea1a0088bafc5512d1e4d973622a886188dd6ce04cff868238 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chicago record the first snowfall? | Event: where-will-it-snow-first | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Yoweri Kaguta Museveni win the 2026 Ugandan presidential election? | Event: uganda-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temp... | no | 1 | 1-paid-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-28 | Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 28? | 79,666,214 | 79,666,214 |
528fc3c2601bb3a9c9ee555f390c926ab64a8e09 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xbd603617895e199d4042781ee55a7a9614af3130ca8e90d257424ca246f66197 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Yoweri Kaguta Museveni win the 2026 Ugandan presidential election? | Event: uganda-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or higher on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no... | no | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-as-fed-chair | Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | 79,666,265 | 79,666,265 |
7525c61199c55316194c0cb5d62ca9f10b2b9eb9 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x8b1d61f74773106258506f98012b088aaf99cd84a7976309255de791d3f2c000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or higher on November 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tim Vieira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Event: portugal-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | total-number-of-tsa-passengers-november-23-30 | Will the total number of TSA passengers for November 23-30 be less than 18,000,000? | 79,666,798 | 79,739,878 |
8c313079150e6bf792605c13cc17396faa11ba94 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x3ee6239537b6af71ec1d9608c275e037bed2985e9c1fb9c5e331fe5433bf5a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tim Vieira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Event: portugal-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Event: which-movie-has-best-opening-weekend-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | who-will-franco-parisi-endorse-in-the-chilean-presidential-election | Will Franco Parisi endorse Jeanette Jara for President of Chile? | 79,677,184 | 79,711,660 |
7d3e05840440a80c6cc15e7575e4a258d0fa6fca | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x8e867090adc15452b9e2166937cea178db890ef8254cc9eb61ae2e554c03b0a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Event: which-movie-has-best-opening-weekend-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9744243305032169
2. Question: Will Anora be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? | Event: 1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year | Ch... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-29 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on November 29? | 79,678,466 | 79,678,466 |
23e941a679c2faf40abd3f5317bdbfd3a801e572 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xd0369f0092bbadc9ed8393aa0b6a6752761669cfdc5bb4caad9bbce685d7d943 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Anora be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? | Event: 1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.10465337838497533
2. Question: Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? | Event: where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-393 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-759 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1? | 79,678,466 | 79,678,466 |
1757a0040870a17da342f325575093ab515269e4 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xe0767d1bcd2a5dbb54f45b563807ab6696b931729639aa87c3b936e596b86800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? | Event: where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-393 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | honduras-presidential-election-second-place | Will Mario Rivera Callejas finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | 79,680,539 | 79,693,618 |
fa8971ad66f29869eef800b0dba5240a39b1047c | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xfacdd0062246ee6d765b897d0399f990432560ea9f33c0640e431cde20704e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? | Event: new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | the-game-awards-best-mobile-game | Will Destiny Rising win Best Mobile Game at the 2025 Game Awards? | 79,687,301 | 79,687,301 |
a35f9394881164e73521085ac4eef4b006effb63 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xc17d81bc760a9be61187094a69755d51e974d7d8ec4a54788331182221624800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Event: how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? | Event: second-highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mario Rivera Ca... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or below on December 1? | 79,711,022 | 79,711,279 |
9dc6283823b3064cd535bbbf0ea64799cec2d4a6 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x1a6b30336fbd91782c651e1a102f6952f39222bea21a72222656aba39e3848d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? | Event: second-highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mario Rivera Callejas win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | Event: honduras-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 0.76597 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-november | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? | 79,714,658 | 79,714,658 |
fbc88661d8720559a491da25d73d09b7d735c77e | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x1a2ec4f6e34d891e80dbd74ffccd4b40c2f8148fc117ff5ebf07cd9f95602e17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mario Rivera Callejas win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | Event: honduras-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-2025 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 0.053678 | largest-company-end-of-november | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | 79,719,786 | 79,719,786 |
af37178ffbf9c289326290cc6753029ca360c56b | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xa3d97508b8be70356d6147a84b21136efadbea8cbc7a2fe28cc54a0c3c6bc685 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ciucu win by 0-3%? | Event: bucharest-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kast wi... | no | 1 | 3rd-largest-company-end-of-november | Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | 79,721,870 | 79,721,870 |
0e18024612570f9297f9db74afac3a593134efde | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x1a36fb7e5cc8fde776749fe45ff7b9a2bc3d3f9a195dac185579b47ec830ce31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ciucu win by 0-3%? | Event: bucharest-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kast win by less than 5%? | Event: chile-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-second-round | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest c... | no | 1 | largest-company-end-of-november | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | 79,722,997 | 79,722,997 |
0ed2f3ac2369977393415a21b20526f6af0d2bc7 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x441b805c95baa504039c546038ce5d8046b9934beb4c82316a134dd26317d42e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kast win by less than 5%? | Event: chile-presidential-election-margin-of-victory-second-round | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | next-prime-minister-of-saint-vincent-and-the-grenadines | Will Godwin Friday be the next Prime Minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines? | 79,723,104 | 79,723,104 |
162d29c24aea60ff8f96c3c9074eedf312a1554b | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xb891d599b75f454a663873ff7495141fd4c8d1b36f378bb593464cf5ebeed76c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Unity Labour Party (ULP) win the most elected seats in the 2025 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines House of Assembly electi... | no | 1 | where-will-it-snow-first | Will Detroit record the first snowfall? | 79,723,105 | 79,723,105 |
ba842dd9c40d69fee35708f8183b7df32be3c7d1 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x426af12f99b7fdbb0ee379a51c706b2173fc9c05ec079b5a6ccab59205072649 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Unity Labour Party (ULP) win the most elected seats in the 2025 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines House of Assembly election? | Event: saint-vincent-and-the-grenadines-legislative-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-25 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 25? | 79,723,106 | 79,723,106 |
6e2c311e4e26d7eda52be66fa57c45d42e7deec4 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x70990066224eee496d662c5de5df0c5121bfd7ae796cff23e4c2afe2acdfd196 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or higher on November 27? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-january | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | 2-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-28 | Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28? | 79,723,106 | 79,723,106 |
7652eb1bc35c3ae9e3e01e0d58ee3b6320782b41 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x3e44a8858eee7b5800ed3170b0316c442659d0b279391a3984d57149587b3590 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-january | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.5 on November 28, 2025? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-november-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | 2nd-largest-company-end-of-november | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | 79,723,231 | 79,723,231 |
2c4a700b10906004797b4a103bacf4e9800167dd | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x40ad0c9cb69a2da8c92e51735fefed5102a0d1ee5486abba7b66264f3eb3382a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.5 on November 28, 2025? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-november-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Savannah Louie be voted off of Survivor season 49 on December 3? | Event: who-will-be-voted-off-survivor-season-49-on-december-3 ... | no | 1 | top-performing-magnificent-7-company-week-of-november-24 | Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 24? | 79,723,231 | 79,723,231 |
cc9f33d484a185def46af4fd1aa398374449df9e | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x4639edbec775f38b502910b0cd51d69b761f10a5892ae6c6b3303cbff80a4bac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Savannah Louie be voted off of Survivor season 49 on December 3? | Event: who-will-be-voted-off-survivor-season-49-on-december-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Savannah Louie win Survivor season 49? | Event: survivor-49-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | dancing-with-the-stars-season-34-winner | Will Robert Irwin & Witney Carson win Dancing with the Stars Season 34? | 79,723,231 | 79,723,231 |
f90d8d2bb90860b44df02c7366732b5881046d7d | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x6570687600d312e349ddd1df958cac36717b4e7f81e677979b951e7816d66d9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Savannah Louie win Survivor season 49? | Event: survivor-49-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? | Event: which-company-will-have-the-best-ai-model-for-math-at-the-end-of-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-29 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on November 29? | 79,723,232 | 79,723,232 |
77a088c6ef65536dad93a0681f54471957deee1c | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x6a50302ed5c94c0ae9671686b55379496aa07d94bfb8b6432018dc2a380205e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? | Event: which-company-will-have-the-best-ai-model-for-math-at-the-end-of-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election? | Event: wh... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-26 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on November 26? | 79,723,232 | 79,723,232 |
ffa82fd0fbcacb0b0461d5ba653f32f74eca1e2e | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x0a998b93c220c3c7c305297dc4baee6f670571944fe59c89867c759397439600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election? | Event: which-party-holds-the-most-seats-after-argentina-deputies-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 42°F or below on November 30?... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-honduran-general-election | Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%? | 79,729,549 | 79,823,578 |
78b945843d9f164b50ced052e5033da5983d2e7d | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x6843a9ac6231718b17b9228c129c5d3ede25d3b42b9f204b10354888a5cec000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 42°F or below on November 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Event: 1-searched-person-on-google-this-year | Choic... | no | 1 | honduras-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 3%? | 79,730,112 | 79,806,575 |
b688a10618ad97b0989119c1b8903ff4b129161f | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xa2355506fda0e0ed07a6b309ef5dcba100f2677d1cf122a36389361717e1cc00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Event: 1-searched-person-on-google-this-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: 2nd-largest-company-end-of-2025 | Choice: n... | no | 1 | 1-paid-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-december-5 | Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? | 79,732,795 | 79,919,339 |
ac2a5947ccc572d9048bfd097fea36d9a8280d54 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x77d7df8b9cda90289d9151a9a1557d8196621844c1ba7cee73c96b8951dc4000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: 2nd-largest-company-end-of-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shop: All your favorite brands be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? | Event: 2-free-app-in-the-us-a... | no | 1 | number-of-tsa-passengers-december-1-7 | Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-7 be less than 14,000,000? | 79,734,974 | 79,734,974 |
7d73c4a7ba4d6d01cba596daa6155478f5abcfa1 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xdb1ae961e30733e7857ebb425b5f6449fa8032de13f32c1c6e447a0c3801ca04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shop: All your favorite brands be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? | Event: 2-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-december-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-hungary ... | no | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-as-fed-chair | Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | 79,738,658 | 79,738,658 |
076ce9a4d3b03a04dbaf502f5bfa4c943e701b18 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xaa9869001e9c5b104072bbd32dca460c3b4619e4e40f6cbc22b437a419194108 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-hungary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arc Raiders win Best Multiplayer Game at the 2025 Game Awards? | Event: the-game-awards-best-multiplayer-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-2025 | Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in November 2025? | 79,738,667 | 79,738,667 |
df83167906d8e422e4749b4d4f6f9bcd6d342d62 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xb8bbb07b3767402f82b076e8f8cc872c1d0170c691aa362e9a690746637d5413 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arc Raiders win Best Multiplayer Game at the 2025 Game Awards? | Event: the-game-awards-best-multiplayer-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Absolum win Best Independent Game at the 2025 Game Awards? | Event: the-game-awards-best-independent-game | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-2025 | Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in November 2025? | 79,738,667 | 79,738,667 |
3eea7882c8ee3c153236470bd731b1dda201a194 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x4d76347d4d1eb838e577cf4fcd39f1cb3bc2c46e6866ec16eddbb9d2c23b1300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Absolum win Best Independent Game at the 2025 Game Awards? | Event: the-game-awards-best-independent-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 28? | Event: 1-paid-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-28 | ... | no | 1 | largest-company-end-of-june-712 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | 79,744,122 | 79,744,122 |
825ad7c8e76eb21d130f22d86b07df4b6e0ed008 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x5b0bfd07d08e65d874caa08f0113a5414deedbef6e72feac8a7a91976b804000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 28? | Event: 1-paid-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-as-fed-chair | Choice: no... | no | 1 | jersey-city-mayoral-election | Will Jim McGreevey win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election? | 79,752,346 | 79,798,914 |
0b7b04285a070e99d0298d659a3bf2e1ea4bbba5 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x37d365afad7f6fbabcea89575f81bfdad16bdbc0b8a1cfcce761a54368b27100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-as-fed-chair | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the total number of TSA passengers for November 23-30 be less than 18,000,000? | Event: total-number-of-tsa-passengers-november-23-30 | Choice:... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-276 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? | 79,752,419 | 79,977,977 |
4a0227a94ad7c5271b24955db882fba9c6f61543 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xc933d6d2f2acd2490becbb5fc7d0e39fe1d751d632248abf23647f6878f39400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the total number of TSA passengers for November 23-30 be less than 18,000,000? | Event: total-number-of-tsa-passengers-november-23-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Franco Parisi endorse Jeanette Jara for President of Chile? | Event: who-will-franco-parisi-endorse-in-th... | no | 1 | 3-most-streamed-spotify-artist-2025 | Will Ariana Grande be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | 79,756,779 | 79,789,971 |
f370e60264f6f5277e2e560ba7bb0f3b7150df13 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x008359447516daf8c84ce3a0acba532f7127f72fda200380a1ed40f61dedca00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Franco Parisi endorse Jeanette Jara for President of Chile? | Event: who-will-franco-parisi-endorse-in-the-chilean-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on November 29? | Event: highest-temperatu... | no | 1 | how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-december | Will Israel strike 0 countries in December 2025? | 79,757,704 | 79,757,735 |
5497e40008237a162ecfcbcd558b60700037e7bc | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xd7849d0b986b15b7442949dee7f8e6cf42c53fc55dc80b2abf30a2b502bd3900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on November 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-... | no | 1 | third-highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Will Lilo and Stitch be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? | 79,760,998 | 79,989,937 |
969a28f82f12e53d8e662aee001d6f3286c15162 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x405d63e400d9b575e43052e0db4f75d7acebcc5b161a629b6b297a90f6fd3700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-759 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mario Rivera Callejas finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | Event: honduras-president... | no | 1 | nj-11-special-election-democratic-primary-winner | Will Brendan Gill be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election? | 79,764,272 | 79,764,272 |
e205d6a0052c13f37b55b3595ff5f8a30db5c7b7 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xaf2df7d3a0e95f5338fec884b8ceb3643f974924b322331ca35cb9a64df08b00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mario Rivera Callejas finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | Event: honduras-presidential-election-second-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Destiny Rising win Best Mobile Game at the 2025 Game Awards? | Event: the-game-awards-best-mobile... | no | 1 | which-company-will-have-the-best-ai-model-for-coding-at-the-end-of-2025 | Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? | 79,774,891 | 79,928,643 |
cb141b239104cf9c8936697c040216552c35bce0 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xd4ae3ea41585388982a6d4cb9b60f4314d92f24ffc88067c9442b72dcc2f2575 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Destiny Rising win Best Mobile Game at the 2025 Game Awards? | Event: the-game-awards-best-mobile-game | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or below on December 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-1 | Choice: no ... | no | 0.026079 | which-party-holds-the-most-seats-after-argentina-deputies-election | Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election? | 79,784,269 | 79,784,269 |
ba3088da3c46ab8daa158aef995db05eee6df538 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xa96e3a9ef1df68ebd52ece4c7a2ca13e5ec4025a18a12c20bd74bdcccf305a86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or below on December 1? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-november ... | no | 1 | how-many-straight-weeks-will-the-life-of-a-showgirl-be-1 | Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 8 straight weeks? | 79,787,259 | 79,787,259 |
30a071b8412188ab07e83f9f337f7c237e77491f | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x4d17b37ee696d00d75883f401ab6c203b359e5a6c422bb574eae3fdb5635a700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.765970411576709
2. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-nove... | no | 1 | rhineland-palatinate-parliamentary-election-winner | Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | 79,788,233 | 79,788,233 |
8d814007af43f19c2a35690d681cfae2bec6eef3 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x6dd8ed69f1315535c7319f3b54c33f518f3583bd3f9563787413aded43dec9b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.053677792455255176
2. Question: Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Event: 3rd-largest-company-... | no | 1 | october-unemployment-rate-eurozone | Will the Eurozone’s October 2025 unemployment rate be 6.3%? | 79,788,852 | 79,788,852 |
e36296bc747563218ad76918cbeaa3a213367c73 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x2cb1cce2fd3ef01ea39d9a68d3d303127d2ac048a4a0c7837cdbc80915e97e49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Event: 3rd-largest-company-end-of-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-november | ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-december-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December 2? | 79,789,636 | 79,789,636 |
5c5ff97e3a699709775c72c80698e2f5ad3d0ecb | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x97f07985636a0568ef476e47fdbc7efcaaee9355ce73b8acf7fd571207140700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Godwin Friday be the next Prime Minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-saint-vincent-an... | no | 1 | 2nd-most-streamed-spotify-song-2025 | Will Ordinary by Alex Warren be the 2nd most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025? | 79,789,934 | 79,789,960 |
841da32d5bc00e04bd6b7811b97ba35c1c76cfa4 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x4b7f42f6618ab3698544bf79ec3b5a3711ecbef3533aff350b4279571ae2c900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Godwin Friday be the next Prime Minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines? | Event: next-prime-minister-of-saint-vincent-and-the-grenadines | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Detroit record the first snowfall? | Event: where-will-it-snow-first | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | the-streamer-awards-streamer-of-the-year | Will iShowSpeed win Streamer of the Year at the 2025 Streamer Awards? | 79,799,369 | 79,986,648 |
22632e3e53808c2d6dd34bb727116a5247b3bd50 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x6a78f838ed7b7fdadb0631f8c9d4448d5b5c8fca02bed18edb2f221daf204100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Detroit record the first snowfall? | Event: where-will-it-snow-first | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | fed-decision-dissent-combo-in-december | Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with ≤2 dissents? | 79,799,550 | 79,799,581 |
7c281510727deb7580b8996a19fff60a730ac7d5 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x9d0d5a844b407e50d10e2053bf9ad019613fd753be3664c0080c65b4f1332d00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28? | Event: 2-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-s... | no | 1 | zohran-mamdani-of-vote-in-2025-nyc-mayoral-election-smaller-brackets | Will Zohran Mamdani get less than 45% of the vote in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 79,800,248 | 79,800,248 |
41fcdefa7e955334ca44803bb2d2db9eaf9c4537 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x35cc41270f5cdfd59b45e68ab85dc51b0b900d286a6c74ea006b8572d9ff5934 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28? | Event: 2-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Event: 2nd-largest-company... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-january | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | 79,801,271 | 79,805,577 |
6e83e1f75b417edf23f53c49333a92977aa3c6b5 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xf24f4e4df71bf0e82689d88d40c9a2e9dc514dda6e60126f7defd0dca857c300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Event: 2nd-largest-company-end-of-november | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 24? | Event: top-performing-ma... | no | 1 | game-awards-game-of-the-year-2025 | Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? | 79,805,782 | 79,805,782 |
8cb060c64d1136daf60b3d0f3a242d06553573b3 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0xc297beb13ed04c183bba802132d9cdc9ca6a5e9417033a365b574a84288d7a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 24? | Event: top-performing-magnificent-7-company-week-of-november-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert Irwin & Witney Carson win Dancing with the Stars Season 34? | Event: dancing-... | no | 1 | 2025-antisemite-of-the-year | Will Tucker Carlson be named StopAntisemitism's 2025 Antisemite of the Year? | 79,807,168 | 79,974,506 |
1fed006d8548a338acd7b883f92aa1860e7947c4 | 0x1584cb3b5a84944bd0db072c43d67189397071b6 | 0x028a9659c9a5b681903a3fd325a007544fd82d532d471e30fbef6ba00f438503 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Irwin & Witney Carson win Dancing with the Stars Season 34? | Event: dancing-with-the-stars-season-34-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on November 29? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-29 ... | no | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-movie-this-week-488 | Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 2 2025) | 79,807,199 | 79,807,199 |
88b73454de20365d1f54eb469c116507898d4915 | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0xf9450fb953db9febefbe92d053033547141b03eff24c4e21cd5a1b6127fb66d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars?
Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,583,062 | 68,583,062 |
e54aacffe330e5858f663418b12c7cde1121df55 | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0x050797c278ea0195ab368d882b252d5a53271d957893ed55879c2054adcfbb24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?
Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film
Predict the user's cho... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-animated-short-film | Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,583,064 | 68,583,064 |
df99cb88627f1e50cefcf6841993c888882a14ac | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0x448dd50fd404bd2fa1b01c7c014efc253779b68c7eaf3778db4c43c45b197361 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
T... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-animated-feature | Will "The Wild Robot" win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,583,066 | 68,583,066 |
70dc6a8c9080e401593f7f3154ac45fee5f23196 | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0x2c233dd55daeb78a71f0fbaa58e7eb4a8388d16485c69d98692d929f7ae14b4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-original-screenplay | Will "The Brutalist" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,599,051 | 68,599,051 |
0d215a09b35081c5000a466596166835194d1ad9 | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0x46d98b7fe44f2199faeecb4ed833199f7fb32eb0895a03a0abaabe655744aab4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-cinematography | Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,599,051 | 68,599,051 |
579eb9f2c076395f0af7082e6b2a601d3d6de22a | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0x485418c2eef41eb3078624c431ebaf44ad4323fb460ae8cc52e3669f6780db62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-international-feature-film | Will "The Seed of the Sacred Fig" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,599,051 | 68,599,051 |
d1368eaa19467785008236902205e86980a5073b | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0x5c9215513166093014d32433122bbb4c8c6d5e9e3c32d33e55b8a4b6c249d74c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-documentary-short-film | Will "Instruments of a Beating Heart" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,599,051 | 68,599,051 |
9b47222f97eaf9823151fdee0018c2a77c4d9198 | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0x6458fe7972c7434bed94b330a6d2923eb5112319ea69af7c7fb1fc0800a5c74f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-documentary-feature-film | Will "Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,599,051 | 68,599,051 |
bc648fd21428c838ca151b39e26ba5f3f4686af3 | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0x6ec3aa055020fb06dcaf2c60625a890f1df00db97b0ff562cf44334f4a152351 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-makeup-and-hairstyling | Will "Nosferatu" win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,599,051 | 68,599,051 |
e37d6181f88c932506d8c94a7fab31e1d9bb1fa3 | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0xa0ae02e2ff4f3f008422153fabbe274571af60a38954e8f24103beb4ba7f44c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-film-editing | Will "The Brutalist" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,599,051 | 68,599,051 |
9db81c54835e129f6e2e8681bf0ba934668419de | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0xa178667c032ac05d911d86b6754a6cabc25e8ef5e9edfc4920fdc280a8aa8971 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-documentary-feature-film | Will "Black Box Diaries" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,599,051 | 68,599,051 |
9678ac0f9b8271e9175ce1fc14fd956098b68029 | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0xb8c71861bf1908817c94e84cf5eea6f51fe913860fd2243cd80af9ee5abbd1bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-makeup-and-hairstyling | Will "Wicked" win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,599,051 | 68,599,051 |
a7ed087008d953357e9d280eb8f9e6ee0598f5b0 | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0xdec476babc4fdd3969b7403d1593d20ef548a3673632ac872cacde9fad427cb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-international-feature-film | Will "The Girl with the Needle" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,599,051 | 68,599,051 |
b336aeec0a185d6ee8af36107efdc4874dfaf043 | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0x0e5e95ba9d85c28bdb3634ae7521a1d39bbc8eeffca358c5a70866b4fb1099ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-cinematography | Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,599,052 | 68,599,052 |
d742a9004c8765c55c1eb56b70277e9aceca5daf | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0x1d501c28257d05e354c0f8a4281e5a7515081d3d3646614ac61ae132cb386046 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-documentary-feature-film | Will "Sugarcane" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,599,052 | 68,599,052 |
ba089fdcac8d20ced4aa1b906291babb95f6e276 | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0x2554b834cdb8fbeec6a07d99e4f505c5155caf22287bb548152784daff561403 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-cinematography | Will "Nosferatu" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,599,052 | 68,599,052 |
c859e96544a9569ca9dda661a6924f63a0b8bd8d | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0x389c2ec601a0f905a9ddc74e758d9b3caa9d83099b7de5cbdd8ebe1e8b186c32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-actress | Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,599,052 | 68,599,052 |
cf26212e51aea0dfe6da3f2de7a7cbea44b4a019 | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0x65b85aa36eaf1d7a3a206fc32e5fba477d2cc2e888ee9703644a5c6ca5c457e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-documentary-short-film | Will "I Am Ready, Warden" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,599,052 | 68,599,052 |
cb47659b7c3edbd63fa22b267aca119eddacf405 | 0x15bc816ef96dac5b7e4409f0b8b053ba3be82020 | 0x752806dfd6682d671309f5acd93edc85e552b53575a3554965192aed8fd71e01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-costume-design-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Wander to Wonder" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-short-film | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-action-short-film | Will "A Lien" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,599,052 | 68,599,052 |
777525b11d309086cd98ea25b522ae520890be8c | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0xe169048eb73a341d003738eb33f6af46cd332f6ba692ccbb9b616e550b083a15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27?
Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | 63,565,988 | 63,565,988 |
372a9bddc1ba31fff0cb2a14dcd075678b2b07e3 | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0x72c5244aa41398b3853819c5c11df60f24b9eea05c5baf936b5a4f7b5012cceb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets
Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "... | mavericks | 1 | nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Mavericks vs. Nuggets | 64,638,372 | 64,638,372 |
dd702e994c855b8d9a022a5b488e14c7ee389748 | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0xeae1dce5f66f391b41d273cfea2d6f0dcf9aa76ac0a4abf772ec62230fe624cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23?
Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23
Pred... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23? | 64,650,145 | 64,650,145 |
4bdfdf03cb358fd3b916dde52a4a1071459be42c | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0x354000748b08a79c77afc332c5c7d1e71046aac8e9d47abde7f6630589e36850 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-mun-2024-11-24 | Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-24? | 64,772,008 | 64,772,008 |
357652958699adde026122132bd38961e1263369 | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0xc92630ccbdad573d7db44ee2513bef03d4df350abcb002e57488507aafff14fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-bou-2024-11-30 | Will Wolves win on 2024-11-30? | 65,171,901 | 65,171,901 |
0864e6b39493d7c24d11a358a4cd09a99fa446cd | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0xf78abfc43175aa33233ae44899b15dfc7ae461047dc1961f4d578bd23f439749 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-mac-2024-12-07 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07? | 65,330,679 | 65,330,679 |
faa99f45e5d417b753dab8281fdd5aec5d36beb4 | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0xa10f97aa5a27c325a5299a225a729fd0eed82294b5f02924eeccba6bf049126b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | ... | trail blazers | 1 | nba-den-por-2024-12-19 | Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers | 65,715,448 | 65,715,448 |
8c89d9504d156e5845ba894483ed3d2242b72e56 | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0x3e53141b9fbd3997bb97f16d24b2a23970c29bb9ecad9d347e31f0f77dfd237e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-lei-2024-12-26 | Will Leicester win on 2024-12-26? | 65,987,854 | 65,987,854 |
d79d9189131e4eeafcd2867d999aebcc6e20270b | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0x55917131502ac2a14e686f1a1b660811983043f1b9e96a3c6b57729357cf0201 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | epl-not-liv-2025-01-14 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-14? | 66,709,548 | 66,709,548 |
13845cf206070fc728b87a38674286a9d7d78667 | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0x83d10715b59dec6b135d7c016d3e61e00e3239c23ce0fea01cd5e842b0fff540 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-ful-2025-01-14 | Will West Ham vs. Fulham end in a draw? | 66,709,548 | 66,709,548 |
add185be5eca4c3aab5a46b750b002c0f5abe731 | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0xc55547210e4141026d97732c291390d9482fafaa4133d2fee6c3865d541e0283 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | epl-che-bou-2025-01-14 | Will Chelsea vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | 66,709,548 | 66,709,548 |
00880116ae68c7e0709362f1e81cf7e39401dc10 | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0xebdbc8c7e5ff63f77b75d0ae087902b91a238b5751770cfc4f81da5ea58fa092 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | ... | no | 1 | epl-not-liv-2025-01-14 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-14? | 66,709,548 | 66,709,548 |
7406a0699d5229a2f91f1729b3d17cbc72a2576b | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0xfdb3678cbe1879b5ebad6f8dd74a534ac1aaa14e53a59017a4055de9c324b35d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-mac-2025-01-14 | Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | 66,709,548 | 66,709,548 |
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