sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
da9d0d1f71cfd76bd8494f9f79e24f77541a59bf | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0x96d52f57f3934c70bc228f389bb48f2f78d8c790c7e67e45bd45d3e006f5eab5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-tot-2025-01-15 | Will Arsenal vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | 66,785,790 | 66,785,790 |
815949da960a4ab6387919ccfc0394942b22a1fd | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0x9a719a13e4590a013113312a9025e0c81a051fd0eee45b7e6d949e813e789221 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-cry-2025-01-15 | Will Leicester vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw? | 66,785,790 | 66,785,790 |
16183d376440afb6c02f02033dd496b62ac0d578 | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0xcc7ed93a1a6550a705facd3a697ba671379e06b455b82ff3e6b1a8b8a4dee621 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-bri-2025-01-16 | Will Ipswich vs. Brighton end in a draw? | 67,268,909 | 67,268,909 |
282ab7a29868d0c3762f6dc353b1060ef7258d4e | 0x1608df8dc34aac33d3cfb0a55b2f5e78ed8fa990 | 0xf5bbd36918e0e50c1ecee590e00d5181ef0187058a55f2d58da7bd12743c265a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-cry-tot-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Event: nba-dal-den-2024-11-22 | Choice: mavericks | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-ful-2025-04-26 | Will Southampton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | 71,185,350 | 71,185,350 |
0ad3d4e526bc2c016897265b60ad1af84125f584 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xa1cfeb88da09869dbd553343b7072fd0ad1bd0c86e6edf3bdf72abcd56204a9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament?
Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | liv-golf-chicago-winner | Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | 75,049,751 | 75,049,751 |
684b287a0e687857624cb811ac7446ec04375a70 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xbd5e66a69731a7a00108e38abdd97f35ab064faff99014d5864a606963afe0fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament?
Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for th... | no | 1 | liv-golf-chicago-winner | Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | 75,049,751 | 75,049,751 |
877b919b228eeed61844c0622b891121f140b994 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xcffb5100c43c9b2491b13edc908d835fdfab5ab439ec62823371b7be91e2ad29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | liv-golf-chicago-winner | Will Dean Burmester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | 75,049,751 | 75,049,751 |
7ffa7377b67d6799745ef52d6ee8c3cf8565634b | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x13be83c76cc4d5675864e98dd223f31ae55544e756bd820c0e2b25c2ebc38149 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | uefa-champions-league-winner | Will Nice win the 2025–26 Champions League? | 75,134,218 | 75,134,218 |
3c44d1888f3cb2fce0d474b16e671ea76875ed2e | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xec33c0fe1f37b1d4c2a50bae91425587301bc434fab732981f6d05e2953412d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | uefa-champions-league-winner | Will Feyenoord win the 2025–26 Champions League? | 75,134,218 | 75,134,218 |
125ced48e8ee5fa16b79261b94fbd9903fbe6b6e | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xdf220cc2f402846ace2be33e7e148adae9b4a863578c08d312e40f366ee19af1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? | 76,319,953 | 76,319,953 |
5cda82de0538f610ab5da95013641cc5aeca6f2c | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x02bee48e1ab2f1819f8659ae1126f94329d2e53bbcff1704f868abfb0fedcb66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | solana-price-september-11-4pm-et | Will the price of Solana be between $222 and $224 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | 76,337,258 | 76,337,258 |
aa44dcf3ec245b4b9abe31b4582055e15c288897 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x2986e1a6ba6026f8b8fd0e0acce0818636c5514a19880f740c81aecac57e3143 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-11-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115,000 and $115,500 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | 76,337,258 | 76,337,258 |
4361eac2e6f8f0613f1b89aa854281dd6c938d1f | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x2a37979ad492bafa3ce2f7f8aa1fb295ed46731ce699f2b400fc48c5fcbbdd80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-september-11-4pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,350 and $4,375 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | 76,337,258 | 76,337,258 |
12b56c2504d8e5b4392d33c1c738f40449000739 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x3eb5411dfe577690b4b9c15db3a237c2d7fd3b16d7ea48858ef5bbe7fc151aa3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-september-11-4pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,450 and $4,475 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | 76,337,258 | 76,337,258 |
8141ffec174f903ef932f8ab74746f52e76d30af | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x46958b44d130d609b16cef7b703f2157ec8cd50a984afd3d37580809ceaa3a32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-11-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115,500 and $116,000 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | 76,337,258 | 76,337,258 |
c8c733c17f14d02156a4cb291d88952ea4737417 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x4aa7f40353e4de355543d6c3e706e16b9dd24e30c72d39ace1e99894703088de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-11-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,500 and $113,000 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | 76,337,258 | 76,337,258 |
74d6171a907d4f7afc144803095214abdc86baed | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x54786b56e91067cf0cb10dafc9fa6d81f160627f6c06949f292f5b0777fc9e5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | solana-price-september-11-4pm-et | Will the price of Solana be between $230 and $232 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | 76,337,258 | 76,337,258 |
17147ab71e781e7d97074da75c52057834032722 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xa61e386dd5fdd4515de16883eae1fb952a21e87a598de2f5e0c67a7e37ad6390 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-september-11-4pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,475 and $4,500 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | 76,337,258 | 76,337,258 |
4e76425b2a56feb2125730ba05c6cc0039d537b9 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xe0266d3fbdd5269a3cefc3224832cfbd967b6f2a2ee829b4ce0ae3f67518b69a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-11-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113,000 and $113,500 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | 76,337,258 | 76,337,258 |
fe9d5e8b506183d06c2b00cd7a3f3395fc8c2965 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xeacbdc929645a8e9a195b81a0c80ecebe392d18116cf8dec201522eac51acd4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-september-11-4pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,375 and $4,400 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | 76,337,258 | 76,337,258 |
d0f46c28399c2177d8c43ffc5778b9165d0cd6a2 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x857d9c9f61955ad9c4bcddc54d5138f9452f4c1b09b33ba3b37e8c8a90a27dd2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-11-4pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113,500 and $114,000 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | 76,337,260 | 76,337,260 |
6ee9ee8f94f59376382fa1bbced6f3ecbbd1595f | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xb160071b947f0137f32532a188547c9175bc1cd29f0e462c309eb2efb24c54e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-september-11-8pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,500 and $115,000 on September 11 at 8PM ET? | 76,344,108 | 76,344,108 |
a8d3004c6d387b82f579ca773de7dd12d288164c | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x302441cab2a4068790a38995f83708e6ab2d0537a85523dc7f89211b1d04d123 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | first-nfl-team-to-score-50-points | Will the Tennessee Titans be the first team to reach 50 total points scored? | 76,348,278 | 76,348,278 |
689a89b2a3cc849949bdfab9d6a019d673913b8b | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x8759b44519af739b0dbc6ce8e40f0b3962e7dbd57c602b583ece266d0fd6a358 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | first-nfl-team-to-score-50-points | Will the Carolina Panthers be the first team to reach 50 total points scored? | 76,348,278 | 76,348,278 |
ae74f227f6a1d04739c0046205f85f1ecc50663d | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x875d43fa82216d03e84e0eee3f1ac796472e14b1a1b3a619668126ad2b637be5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | first-nfl-team-to-score-50-points | Will the Chicago Bears be the first team to reach 50 total points scored? | 76,348,278 | 76,348,278 |
06bde68c6b027c6ab2c46eb711d6043464ff87db | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x29ed6f75bce9f46fbb14a2bc18b2e11ce0bd96a8f018c2d9ff5d2fbf99467908 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-11 | Will Elon Musk post 0-29 tweets on September 11, 2025? | 76,350,440 | 76,350,440 |
1491d2461c94872b3bf2fe8954b642a9416281da | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x928cba98767313fb0ef5ddae8656199924556c474caa009f94212faa269ddb00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | xrp-price-on-september-26 | Will the price of XRP be less than $2.60 on September 26? | 76,929,732 | 76,929,732 |
d52d08674fa8aa2e194899848d4fb06c687d7732 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xdef0ca8d4240fb9ad56025f7d0f92f075149da1d6b979b9cffd7ac8ff302c5ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,929,747 | 76,929,747 |
47c0f425946ba2e9341dc56a41a844afda5517de | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xdf86e2f1d35b0552e5c93ee0ab0bff9d538c8855abe2ce14a930bde08ab67fc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,935,819 | 76,935,819 |
11ea5a904b5ee4c094d5545b22e2bcb074ea594e | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x96c93a87056bc668bbedd2fd3bfa46fc333b821aa5c3b829695bccfbbd72e01f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-september-26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on September 26? | 76,936,190 | 76,936,190 |
3f0cf2ee6d29623df52c89a23e29bf158fcf9a60 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x4be73a586dd45b20fce5bd6f03cdd58a1a99ac82e0eda9734620184342552bde | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | dp-world-india-championship-2025-winner | Will Rory McIlroy win the 2025 DP World India Championship? | 77,897,905 | 77,897,905 |
6f59c55d0e149721d6f3d654214ec3d3b80644b9 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xbd66b5eb0dcc3aef6da1cc600e1f16b6eedb1253ac5fd38efdc8a379e65fd4ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | yes | 1 | united-states-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-1st | Will Red Bull have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | 77,913,282 | 77,913,282 |
b14027e3b76b5c8d6815c2015dba0759e4fbffe5 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xc6857fdc8b11b381c177706e3c2fac86fc71331a46186c3845a5bbb421435360 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-17-october-24 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | 77,940,363 | 77,940,363 |
5717f3b7b1ea38ea94d68548cc55cd30b56f9350 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x43fda20201ec4550fb9d791dd5314ea9713d6b18c73165d5ea72650a09587f88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | mlb-2025-world-series-division-winner | Will AL West win the 2025 MLB World Series? | 77,961,792 | 77,961,792 |
563259ca905d409599bd172a75abe8e428c1cb95 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x68a14da906e9e7cd029f77fcbf8abc7396c5923e14973751a94c99f6daa9d7b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Carlos Ortiz win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dean Burme... | no | 1 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? | 77,961,792 | 77,961,792 |
12808ca8620fae5bba54c3913c81fe4a400462ea | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xd97d95f15edfe56fd412a3e95929497903f16069964f63b7ced90172cd723d61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Josele Ballester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dean Burmester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nice wi... | no | 1 | american-league-winner-2025 | Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 American League Championship? | 77,961,792 | 77,961,792 |
532cdeb526ef0e6d4765db71619801525e0b2e52 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x10fe34a1518e35e6c2a65493281f77030ee0224de1b036438a89086f1aca1ad1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dean Burmester win the 2025 LIV Golf Chicago tournament? | Event: liv-golf-chicago-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nice win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Event: uefa-champions-league-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Feyenoord win the 2025... | no | 1 | ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Will RU Saint-Gilloise vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? | 77,993,479 | 77,993,479 |
ac0895a9cdaf387c3a2e5e7e9dd2d84616512295 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x127300171a2767a8c17847029930cf5a67874c27e547c9a824669d064988ad7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nice win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Event: uefa-champions-league-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Event: uefa-champions-league-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 200 times ... | no | 1 | ucl-psv-nap-2025-10-21 | Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-10-21? | 77,993,479 | 77,993,479 |
e5aaca9365c35a6416f6518c477f0e644f11e036 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x203724b6732e51443876cb7d6f057885ae7d5f492693aa816e0961ea8afd9ed6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Feyenoord win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Event: uefa-champions-league-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Sola... | yes | 1 | ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? | 77,993,479 | 77,993,479 |
a43bb03020d61d76d07a57a54a474f22478765df | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x229fa38380f75aa09b81b05b786ce567bb9279d09917e8ed907151fc60284a3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $222 and $224 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: solana-price-september-11-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | ucl-new-ben-2025-10-21 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-10-21? | 77,993,479 | 77,993,479 |
9734f6bf9e85e8fed182b5b250deae1a216ead40 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x6357420f127da202885b329b0ab345d8e4cad127e8f85f3919cbcc43b5fc1511 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $222 and $224 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: solana-price-september-11-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115,000 and $115,500 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-11-4pm-et |... | yes | 1 | ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | 77,993,479 | 77,993,479 |
480d90dc6e799bc77a32b9e431301875e85025a5 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x971b14ff03996a43df007e51fa2a67602b350ce6aded880932cfbe5359dad13c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115,000 and $115,500 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-11-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,350 and $4,375 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-11-... | no | 1 | ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-10-21? | 77,993,479 | 77,993,479 |
92d1d7b17771d50c9a081f7a5fb47c61267af66c | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xaec25e41ac7ccfbf5f5bae4dd75618bd0c43e929a6dfd738385ed10b42ac1bb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,350 and $4,375 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-11-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,450 and $4,475 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-11-4p... | yes | 1 | ucl-vil-mnc-2025-10-21 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? | 77,993,479 | 77,993,479 |
e79ab20ec2c87607d76ec657608b57f16611f7e2 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xb684cbc8f857c86b4be18f7668fb479ce3959ea6cda2781bb26ad7156074b210 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,450 and $4,475 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-11-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115,500 and $116,000 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-11-... | no | 1 | ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? | 77,993,479 | 77,993,479 |
72510c414b84b3113e2f5b0798ac8e9fba9130d2 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xf93842f08c1f54d448e372ce359d0daf011cf352f7694b7bab7e63297539c6c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115,500 and $116,000 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-11-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,500 and $113,000 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-1... | no | 1 | ucl-vil-mnc-2025-10-21 | Will Villarreal CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? | 77,993,479 | 77,993,479 |
0dff99ec86f18195f12729eebb01e069ff8141ce | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xf95b0cc86e4851be9bb8175d7ce24fb408753af4b7b78a36fd58ccdcc16fb72d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,500 and $113,000 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-11-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $230 and $232 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: solana-price-september-11-4pm-et |... | yes | 1 | ucl-new-ben-2025-10-21 | Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-10-21? | 77,993,479 | 77,993,479 |
03da3236b8cfc38532c6718a571e7022260c46cc | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0x5e7a692c37726330674889ef0a1c1c74efc2890b3fdfd9f6e91b46af517247f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $230 and $232 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: solana-price-september-11-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,475 and $4,500 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-11-4pm-et | C... | no | 1 | ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-10-21? | 77,993,480 | 77,993,480 |
0f498ad75409cd4378cb71d7ce31b36ad90b7a0c | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xc23d7b2f625d59cba4f003ab89c49fc0058783bebc9396f182396a69efccc792 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,475 and $4,500 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-11-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113,000 and $113,500 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-11-... | no | 1 | ucl-psv-nap-2025-10-21 | Will PSV vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? | 77,993,503 | 77,993,503 |
0c7ee7e90b7dc38827c47efad13bf2dd24f05065 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xf3ac6c8e5dba7a18c546587d855cdf1e20c5a6826f1d34dedbcb4229140702db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113,000 and $113,500 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-11-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,375 and $4,400 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-11-... | yes | 1 | ucl-psv-nap-2025-10-21 | Will PSV win on 2025-10-21? | 77,993,503 | 77,993,503 |
ae901dbd7f607baa35c31710ecc90e440d032b56 | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xa97e77fd0f8970f1d081d53639167b53a9d26f0cf44d00dd318eb13ae6f486e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,375 and $4,400 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-september-11-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113,500 and $114,000 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-11-... | yes | 1 | ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | 78,000,841 | 78,000,841 |
7bf68756f456972a452e3572b2e1342d07b1c8db | 0x160aa7433e68ef858411323b3cfc8248051bb058 | 0xd33ddfb3139b7177247857bff75c757edaf0dc16f427034cae9a720c7542a3c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113,500 and $114,000 on September 11 at 4PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-11-4pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,500 and $115,000 on September 11 at 8PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-september-1... | no | 1 | ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Will FC København vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? | 78,000,841 | 78,000,841 |
eed4693c1773f91f214006c126b58897e2e52ca6 | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0x6a031c4888fcfb886861d3616cce760ea284dbf46e355b197400c2b12a4c37a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
Event: republican-vp-nominee
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | republican-vp-nominee | Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,413,832 | 59,413,832 |
ca5a514b825908078ded5dbbf256499d51b4babb | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0xdd866827787d87ade4ac9a515e1e748a2ad39f374f2c522a16ee8faffef4eb4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
Event: republican-vp-nominee
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target... | no | 1 | republican-vp-nominee | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,413,849 | 59,413,849 |
e703ee46ad39b4a43e30bb72a1a6116cc4fb51da | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0xcbd8b18d2be8101ca0f467e0840adcc52381c03fde07884c4b1ec0ae8356e0ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Ben C... | no | 1 | republican-vp-nominee | Will Ben Carson win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,413,870 | 59,413,870 |
28c5c7c3c676735235dff187e990ee10b8f0af6c | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0x16638709abbdd7209e7a244ece68fa62f246ced9cae5536f759278ac0a3dbac7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | yes | 1 | 100m-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m? | 60,202,101 | 60,202,101 |
a0c83a65434f9c881a0b7aeae9af0bfa2b5b1c4e | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0x2d606a51f902a4d934a4b810dd77cb28bb8e40268f42354057b5a47f9799efad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | no | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,265,403 | 60,265,403 |
fef54e65c04cddc1610016c0a8722cc3396408aa | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0x9e9071636d176562592a98dfede865385ba0cff7864cfa01f0479ca6e9e26e1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | yes | 1 | democratic-nominee-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | 60,265,403 | 60,265,403 |
9063eb846b4b063058499d77707fc6f4fd8cbd86 | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0x72857b3b967e7cdf2e85258e88c7077ba22e6a3b0c1c30b6bd6fc7ee7b7b51a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | yes | 1 | venezuela-election-winner | Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | 60,310,061 | 60,310,061 |
2a6ff354ef87d232f5029604159fc4743be41b3b | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0xd83c13f14529750b296d6d2b327cbcadd34c2c3e673f4242c1be94d462a36617 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | no | 1 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Mark Kelly be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 60,310,061 | 60,310,061 |
65f3d8eb6fa6b67d2158f4c48731ec72a8e24fac | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0x8a33bf23210666f8f49a8fa8f7a54bb0a55a8b0c929f78c6bd4ce3867b80d832 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | yes | 1 | vermont-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Vermont Presidential Election? | 64,015,473 | 64,015,473 |
a96d3003c75d1b2a9a1956ab8d1ce6884bd02625 | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0x1d372482a1170a5591237fb8881b1cfe25a1caf69adf58035d406530eb39556d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | yes | 1 | hawaii-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Hawaii Presidential Election? | 64,015,497 | 64,015,497 |
ac98bd9f952ee49a35d20f216cef765c9fe9a8c4 | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0xf6ed583701577fd9412a60c8fdbcdae3cf9aeb6ae3d753c1d687acd15e7ee636 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | yes | 1 | tennessee-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Tennessee US Senate Election? | 64,015,520 | 64,015,520 |
85ad1429c8c4820830f838a394b5d7ef063f0f42 | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0x90259f0ec1fa576ce8f8bd15cbb1bf525721d0ee9d8f4993dadc02e9d61eee66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | yes | 1 | washington-dc-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Washington DC Presidential Election? | 64,015,530 | 64,015,530 |
1e1bd7ebfb2eafb0cab2a3d8b0e9693fde2ea00c | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0xa93ffdf20f163f8968e73d9bafd9e95ee9759d74eaf073a7868693a17dfec9fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | yes | 1 | massachusetts-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Massachusetts Presidential Election? | 64,015,534 | 64,015,534 |
7f298e9559deb54332abf15540aa581ae5b40ae2 | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0x133c44a98706b564e8415b1b605b00a2aa0766ed431542e091e3a63be0207500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | no | 1 | oklahoma-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Oklahoma Presidential Election? | 64,015,542 | 64,015,542 |
17c39b57af0b495a739f47c0fdf57ed1b9c199b9 | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0x5997cd6096c218411758371421538280a309fb3d465acfda751e3f37944e8ed5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | no | 1 | trump-sentenced-to-how-much-prison-time | Trump sentenced to 48 or more months prison time? | 64,015,601 | 64,015,601 |
6d52ad0ae899865c3b98434267871ee478bd80f3 | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0x265366ede72d73e137b2b9095a6cdc9be6149290caa295738a95e3d881ad0865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | 66,533,396 | 66,533,396 |
6516e43681a3c1df30e94ccec4c08da4b77a6e96 | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0x5b17dfa74234ae3dda7671926c13af2cf77472c237e8a437d400e65020486e2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | no | 1 | south-region-winner-march-madness | Will Saint Francis (PA) win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,252,802 | 69,252,802 |
49c409f014d310ed0e947f6a14e10a1bedae72f0 | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0x7becd004672c43fc80c83bad8e9f2d7f229e30543368b801a328f4ce4f744bf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | no | 1 | east-region-winner-march-madness | Will American win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,286,040 | 69,286,040 |
3d9cd68485e6dd394072c40373717cebe07ed0e4 | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0x330979055f4ad31a8075866cdf4c2c81b20e352849f5f61499bac691a2899b57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | no | 1 | midwest-region-winner-2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will SIU Edwardsville win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,305,241 | 69,305,241 |
96560a104ac59a32bcc163f545d3776b72dd5613 | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0xb5de375f66cbcb6a5ce57b85ba7ebcb3626fd22fef815c139ebb7dd89cb4cd63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | no | 1 | east-region-winner-march-madness | Will Mount St. Mary's win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,385,579 | 69,385,579 |
df1ac16d61ad137873c89e40407afaa4349e16eb | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0xfafc3ca0155d74e13168ee0045f80a8269167d0c88fd4ef3350e6144a3b730aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | yes | 1 | west-region-winner-march-madness | Will St. John's win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,385,579 | 69,385,579 |
95920de741c0407d80f3075b91d804fa410672e0 | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0x325dd500a88b3e9511aed0d36d6f9445cd1725855418778638d3a999f7d8c606 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | yes | 1 | west-region-winner-march-madness | Will Maryland win the West region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,601,819 | 69,601,819 |
6167370eedcdbf851fd782f6aa69dea812eed968 | 0x1615b32478d59bf461842e57aaff99d43f28a6af | 0x0d388ed66d39a2a94d34608733ecc86da7de942aa9b18ee1cfb2bce523dfeb1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ben Carson win the... | yes | 1 | east-region-winner-march-madness | Will Duke win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,684,691 | 69,684,691 |
9d40b0e674c468aa023e88acd326b5790392571f | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xfcf6ac1d026e5b51a29c554c256590fe28ed0e80cc0e5e865f57e312819c16cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors
Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | trail blazers | 0.000001 | nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | 77,439,071 | 77,439,904 |
b6d15ba44d609e93dbab59b0e7b148add7ec9528 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xe482c99fb10f73773c9784687f4e91a9086fbe07556246dcae310fc096cf124d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
Target market:
Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks
Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice"... | knicks | 0 | nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Timberwolves vs. Knicks | 77,477,067 | 77,518,315 |
ad7334794189b85f2535b7d18c1096d2ac33fb81 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x069957a272f561a776dd4bdc0b10c88810d7a4c47d9c8bfa134e2c83984f2ac9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Pistons vs. Bucks
Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10... | bucks | 0 | nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Pistons vs. Bucks | 77,479,460 | 77,518,315 |
78fa7e70b7f43ad112c205cd3bafaa0bd65cb387 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x5bea4d9c3beb6aa6df1abfe5d96b832a226220a90c0a3e1556cac7c6020edee5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | 76ers | 0 | nba-orl-phi-2025-10-10 | Magic vs. 76ers | 77,519,592 | 77,520,524 |
8f4a863a3609d9719a10779a21e114e0d339c28b | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xc4e6e38774fd8f5ebeaaf3c2a53c715d7b0e7603e5edc3a57408a132f89eeb28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | aces | 0 | wnba-las-phx-2025-10-10 | Aces vs. Mercury | 77,521,395 | 77,521,743 |
d09341ef05b2aa850381b06de3b4bd944f66c70f | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x83c6c46a9c6b467f353ab9ef3805a194b6a66891b1d831bc9103e28145b430cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | kings | 0 | nba-sac-por-2025-10-10 | Kings vs. Trail Blazers | 77,525,818 | 77,526,621 |
7043876c6711700bcf07d339db1c0154e8d45ab1 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x644edb5123778628470fbcb9fd3c131e69cfa418e41f3bfa66c5bc22854f2578 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | pacers | 0 | nba-okc-ind-2025-10-11 | Thunder vs. Pacers | 77,563,045 | 77,584,626 |
952849ca0098e9b60df59cf4ac8b3ae044611049 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x1c91e34fc9d90cbc1a04cbc0f38781dbc5ecaf5cb7cd206618bdbeb5e5711c23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | hornets | 0 | nba-cha-dal-2025-10-11 | Hornets vs. Mavericks | 77,564,922 | 77,584,626 |
3614a0edc4ceb89965fad8252a357986bbd3cb86 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x4329a3c724d42c584f510388e4963cdfea294106df6ce1d37da91a4a65f53491 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | heat | 0 | nba-mia-orl-2025-10-12 | Heat vs. Magic | 77,605,098 | 77,605,158 |
7dfe78d51ee5ed456797f8846fead14632b751f5 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x3728ec5eb9fcd48918ac5bdb360a0d3b550dc54c57c8fe9a14741648b59bcab4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | bucks | 0 | nba-mil-chi-2025-10-12 | Bucks vs. Bulls | 77,606,526 | 77,620,319 |
4d52aa793f1b849bea1c3181cc85ed4a0d965f2c | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xb1c6a89c9ebfbe9c332e1c271a57d1e4135313f8d68f728ed85dc5ac19291ccd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | jazz | 0.000001 | nba-dal-uta-2025-10-13 | Mavericks vs. Jazz | 77,652,299 | 77,652,407 |
570268435f3bd311e3b3c932984a1f741f02e8dd | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x8914debe130d2340a147868226ead338741167c268e23b506401f931bac69c63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | invictus gaming | 0 | lol-t1-invictus-gaming-2025-10-14 | LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) | 77,662,748 | 77,668,764 |
1d8561319b64c18a9f0648fc3badebf7c47f59b5 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x5017edd2905779e9a5a16718d93f66fc95c8deb9bede3524d4ef57af66054ebf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | team secret whales | 0 | lol-vks-tsw-2025-10-15 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) | 77,701,279 | 77,701,279 |
5d65be30b53703aec929cdd35ef1a0f77ff98e39 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xca3ffa66545095ac1d9e6931731dda25c3de5bffb8dc796f8b7f2413a9654394 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | 100 thieves | 0.000001 | lol-blg-100-2025-10-15 | LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) | 77,706,652 | 77,706,741 |
6b07e2a39115e1f525453db8aeccb1fe65d2a872 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xe5a3b66089f38c0cf705a4d249c389440a40357839452f98d84bb072d7d636bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | t1 | 0.000004 | lol-fly-t1-2025-10-15 | LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) | 77,708,476 | 77,708,476 |
a6b702554167c062ce7fccaebc6dba187108fda1 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x378cbda8863fc1c24ed65cc77e76ca47f45c270f44cd3d892b0b5e70c3f97368 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | anyone's legend | 0.000001 | lol-hle1-al-2025-10-15 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) | 77,709,681 | 77,710,187 |
2ac01a19538b28b8a7e2faf5db67e8cd8ffb3c7a | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xd8dfd4c746d3002e84883b4158b836358078f1b916bfc36a2397c0582e2e9f18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | top esports | 0 | lol-g2-tes-2025-10-15 | LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) | 77,712,244 | 77,712,244 |
be09506528b72009c6790ffef6335ff5a33cf14f | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x6ba1b24f7af70d4c8cce16bc708fbda507b163457184e83985896725d4ede0db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | gen.g | 0 | lol-gen-tln-2025-10-15 | LoL: Gen.G vs PSG Talon (BO1) | 77,713,686 | 77,743,346 |
7d7f5f750c3a82eabedf91578c184bc42416c347 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x648454e8a90957c41d10f4d88d94408c74f27b53fb640ea4a0914c446a95eb8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | vivo keyd stars | 0.000006 | lol-fly-vks-2025-10-16 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO1) | 77,743,744 | 77,743,744 |
01f54eff60678bfce2ff1c060e71557b1898bc5c | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xa75a857fa068b09083e7de7fd7ea3a4db6646247b6b0a637462155fa23ceb307 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | kt rolster | 0 | lol-kt-tsw-2025-10-16 | LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) | 77,745,335 | 77,745,752 |
6e3dda4f54968a65cd151ac812e8656a2ba130b8 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x18f9f564494fd7a22d224ae40957155495bbe7807037deeadb34c55465e14d61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | top esports | 0.000001 | lol-tes-100-2025-10-16 | LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1) | 77,748,556 | 77,748,769 |
b7c4792f38620e9b0bbd03e2e7d5104939348db5 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x770516bfd1c950a385817d7d92e10aebff454d00f2d8f91ef0c5ccf156c882d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | t1 | 0.000004 | lol-t1-cfo-2025-10-16 | LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) | 77,750,384 | 77,750,494 |
ee0d7c5768d492522fa7d54e1bf53ea24d4d6e01 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x1b0179fd8e9ccdb5c2ace95000e7ab0a60208e4e1b40556d4f3d136c955f5a16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | anyone's legend | 0 | lol-al-gen-2025-10-16 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) | 77,753,070 | 77,753,070 |
082055140684b3465a2c61360b5b11a68efa3cd1 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x2a72ca65a1f32e4dc1d03f9ddcdcfecb593f7186b884cd6229ee2093631bad33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | kt rolster | 0 | lol-kt-tes-2025-10-17 | LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) | 77,792,477 | 77,792,935 |
01e0b6045d7fed3d7871d2904f27f45bcfe6c933 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x29e191911cf65a30375c1d28e2bd9abcb6cdbbf6a95e1465ded598c0ed5a9359 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | anyone's legend | 0 | lol-cfo-al-2025-10-17 | LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) | 77,799,595 | 77,822,371 |
d164d294d8470df88cc92276c1f002f4f8b8f1b5 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xe8f1f669363b39e3b5b2425b9e907c2634d6a8335b3df30802367b9b59f9efb8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | bilibili gaming | 0.301207 | lol-g2-blg-2025-10-18 | LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) | 77,839,221 | 77,839,602 |
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