sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
e4f8eb20bab79c6df832b68b2eabf5ef43447992 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x006273b573b6b319e17fcaf65e7710c8a07138e78ae0aebbce15d15f3553cb33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | fnatic | 0 | lol-mkoi-fnc-2025-10-19 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) | 77,879,744 | 77,879,820 |
36c2bf49ab912d92a5560f6e7945741196ecf419 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xa539f868dfb6ee7762855c07d9113c18da5e541e9d4a3cef306af538d94e762b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | psg talon | 0 | lol-vks-tln-2025-10-19 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) | 77,883,437 | 77,886,981 |
d8d86e7738f8ab52164343fb68c924cca9225393 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x778583b50731880ef652c5cfe4e882724a337fa170ad4be1f944e811f5da14ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | rockets | 0 | nba-hou-okc-2025-10-21 | Rockets vs. Thunder | 77,996,068 | 77,997,713 |
2a61691bd9d7440f311e9f8851b986f57b931032 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x55aef230faf5eae10e203514cbda2439fa10c48e247d89de8d687db6dac5130b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | lakers | 0 | nba-gsw-lal-2025-10-21 | Warriors vs. Lakers | 78,000,365 | 78,001,635 |
b42d32ad4a5ddb9ef0575eef9a08b19af43b9a68 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x7456b4b9d59baa55baa7c4cbb664fe9d67e0185b5a9db03071128bc9e459408a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Event: nba-por-gsw-2025-10-08 | Choice: trail blazers | Confidence: 9.856874745403293e-07
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choic... | heat | 0 | nba-mia-orl-2025-10-22 | Heat vs. Magic | 78,038,127 | 78,038,950 |
188255a59fc07d70d3c8892ace1b64c4c06ed88c | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xa380979462ef8c010456060972aa39c0b0d0e3bb4a5999c657d34d92f6ff6745 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Timberwolves vs. Knicks | Event: nba-min-nyk-2025-10-09 | Choice: knicks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Magic vs. 76ers | Event: nba-orl-phi-2025-10-10 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questio... | cavaliers | 0 | nba-cle-nyk-2025-10-22 | Cavaliers vs. Knicks | 78,039,312 | 78,039,312 |
07e61bf02b18212837ab3363e90fa5d663ffc83c | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x00e1cfcf3d331e3641d559eba2bb1fde92fc1d2abf92c4fd7396a117ce724eb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Pistons vs. Bucks | Event: nba-det-mil-2025-10-09 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Magic vs. 76ers | Event: nba-orl-phi-2025-10-10 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Aces vs. Mercury | Event: wnba-las-phx-2025-10-10 | Choice: aces | Confidence: 2.6680478606212434e-07... | pelicans | 0.000017 | nba-nop-mem-2025-10-22 | Pelicans vs. Grizzlies | 78,041,016 | 78,041,016 |
2a10312f4ab108f99534d4271c873064763c5ac8 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xd40c1e9c012cfb8d906ffc338c02366f0bf97afbca3e266b55021f40b7ff2d0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Magic vs. 76ers | Event: nba-orl-phi-2025-10-10 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Aces vs. Mercury | Event: wnba-las-phx-2025-10-10 | Choice: aces | Confidence: 2.6680478606212434e-07
3. Question: Kings vs. Trail Blazers | Event: nba-sac-por-2025-10-10 | Choice: kings | Confidenc... | thunder | 0 | nba-okc-ind-2025-10-23 | Thunder vs. Pacers | 78,082,463 | 78,084,681 |
f379ae4819926484839ce64d802fce748be5e07d | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xf9beddbc9f171dce517f3076d5bf8808bede78e787ef1c644baf061380638cae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Aces vs. Mercury | Event: wnba-las-phx-2025-10-10 | Choice: aces | Confidence: 2.6680478606212434e-07
2. Question: Kings vs. Trail Blazers | Event: nba-sac-por-2025-10-10 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Thunder vs. Pacers | Event: nba-okc-ind-2025-10-11 | Choice: pacers | Confi... | nuggets | 0 | nba-den-gsw-2025-10-23 | Nuggets vs. Warriors | 78,086,868 | 78,094,989 |
d8569d84f62706df5d6de8befaa0189fc9d356b5 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xef6199ce5302511abd392cfdd02e41c7e5b0b046e6d3c7fd1527d77c9ae1e8cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kings vs. Trail Blazers | Event: nba-sac-por-2025-10-10 | Choice: kings | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Thunder vs. Pacers | Event: nba-okc-ind-2025-10-11 | Choice: pacers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Hornets vs. Mavericks | Event: nba-cha-dal-2025-10-11 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
4... | magic | 0 | nba-atl-orl-2025-10-24 | Hawks vs. Magic | 78,125,114 | 78,125,114 |
25db006d3521fb3179f639b6ec94c767a6f65ebe | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x114b8b3f9ece80a4a9fde5defdc953a1a9c8f4b02b6662065696eddffce6ae54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Thunder vs. Pacers | Event: nba-okc-ind-2025-10-11 | Choice: pacers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Hornets vs. Mavericks | Event: nba-cha-dal-2025-10-11 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Heat vs. Magic | Event: nba-mia-orl-2025-10-12 | Choice: heat | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question... | celtics | 0 | nba-bos-nyk-2025-10-24 | Celtics vs. Knicks | 78,126,494 | 78,126,494 |
4fe8a3a6003451a623f1ed5bb47050021c28a2ee | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xc959a12aa5fcf0f9ca1b910fb36c542e5498a5b693f3f7f0e8c0a033477b47b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Hornets vs. Mavericks | Event: nba-cha-dal-2025-10-11 | Choice: hornets | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Heat vs. Magic | Event: nba-mia-orl-2025-10-12 | Choice: heat | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bucks vs. Bulls | Event: nba-mil-chi-2025-10-12 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: Ma... | top esports | 0.000001 | lol-tes-blg-2025-10-25 | LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner | 78,138,294 | 78,138,294 |
866c55973086f905bb66aa24db084fef5f49c8b7 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xf6c495f776ac75b109f381c38dd2eec2a8a8de1a46caf9e91cfc7a82b8dc7a71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Heat vs. Magic | Event: nba-mia-orl-2025-10-12 | Choice: heat | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bucks vs. Bulls | Event: nba-mil-chi-2025-10-12 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Mavericks vs. Jazz | Event: nba-dal-uta-2025-10-13 | Choice: jazz | Confidence: 7.742035585477651e-07
4. ... | bulls | 0 | nba-chi-orl-2025-10-25 | Bulls vs. Magic | 78,167,130 | 78,209,130 |
8b5a9a45297a5d21f184f2383d8a95acfdf38e99 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x080d94349ad80cb9f3a1e9477e2be9545252635933f5b58f07a0ef19b1b303ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bucks vs. Bulls | Event: nba-mil-chi-2025-10-12 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mavericks vs. Jazz | Event: nba-dal-uta-2025-10-13 | Choice: jazz | Confidence: 7.742035585477651e-07
3. Question: LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) | Event: lol-t1-invictus-gaming-2025-10-14 | Choic... | heat | 0 | nba-nyk-mia-2025-10-26 | Knicks vs. Heat | 78,209,813 | 78,214,091 |
4e7534a049bbde11a98feb0d21ade9e6f5d46496 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x8b450546139add80d99b14a011ca69af48703794f58adac313c3dbdd3cc3dc47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mavericks vs. Jazz | Event: nba-dal-uta-2025-10-13 | Choice: jazz | Confidence: 7.742035585477651e-07
2. Question: LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) | Event: lol-t1-invictus-gaming-2025-10-14 | Choice: invictus gaming | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs Team Secret Whales (B... | pacers | 0.000001 | nba-ind-min-2025-10-26 | Pacers vs. Timberwolves | 78,210,909 | 78,212,113 |
ced3d6bda6aad9dbbdf477053dc36e328e6724e6 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x2fc8174da49bb05d09e7ebb62f32393ef083f0197bf1e6e0189ec9a71ba8e3e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) | Event: lol-t1-invictus-gaming-2025-10-14 | Choice: invictus gaming | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) | Event: lol-vks-tsw-2025-10-15 | Choice: team secret whales | Confidence: 1.046344787507919e-07
3. Question: L... | mavericks | 0 | nba-tor-dal-2025-10-26 | Raptors vs. Mavericks | 78,212,546 | 78,212,571 |
a351dae2cafdeb4bb53d7dfc063bd5d6e2732edb | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xf3a1c85da5377d5606319c13847ee595f01d59240281ba954a501b1f51d33bfe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) | Event: lol-vks-tsw-2025-10-15 | Choice: team secret whales | Confidence: 1.046344787507919e-07
2. Question: LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) | Event: lol-blg-100-2025-10-15 | Choice: 100 thieves | Confidence: 1.0464099803560349e-06
3... | clippers | 0 | nba-por-lac-2025-10-27 | Trail Blazers vs. Clippers | 78,214,215 | 78,253,009 |
943b31f21bdb4ab51f177ada2f03119d8060ceff | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x139ed9a1ae5dc78af33379f0192111624f458a175bed8fcbff2a044a5ce142fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) | Event: lol-blg-100-2025-10-15 | Choice: 100 thieves | Confidence: 1.0464099803560349e-06
2. Question: LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) | Event: lol-fly-t1-2025-10-15 | Choice: t1 | Confidence: 3.6137800439948755e-06
3. Question: LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs... | magic | 0.000001 | nba-orl-phi-2025-10-27 | Magic vs. 76ers | 78,253,623 | 78,254,693 |
c7301be9fcdbc3bd02f04585d073d8bb5505ceef | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xcb400553eb2c4110d1bdc74bffb0c81f5069f81c91f8f342cdfa2c510e29661b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) | Event: lol-fly-t1-2025-10-15 | Choice: t1 | Confidence: 3.6137800439948755e-06
2. Question: LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) | Event: lol-hle1-al-2025-10-15 | Choice: anyone's legend | Confidence: 5.599004864975327e-07
3. Question: LoL: G2 Esports ... | jazz | 0.000009 | nba-phx-uta-2025-10-28 | Suns vs. Jazz | 78,258,432 | 78,258,432 |
d9b46bfe86d677a0360f9de36bf83a9645e11c7d | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x30153000de3d440b9d08deb6a7c1c1e9513f488a6fba7ab1c5441dffce773521 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) | Event: lol-hle1-al-2025-10-15 | Choice: anyone's legend | Confidence: 5.599004864975327e-07
2. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) | Event: lol-g2-tes-2025-10-15 | Choice: top esports | Confidence: 1.6423838887945414e-07
3. Questi... | gen.g | 0 | lol-gen-hle1-2025-10-28 | LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner | 78,268,960 | 78,296,530 |
41b795675ef02a18883ce56abbde974908dd1a32 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x0d2624a37a3ee634f86fc382bb99c0d2f37f83e04c4e0c234ccafbacf3e42860 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) | Event: lol-g2-tes-2025-10-15 | Choice: top esports | Confidence: 1.6423838887945414e-07
2. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs PSG Talon (BO1) | Event: lol-gen-tln-2025-10-15 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: FlyQuest vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO1) | Eve... | wizards | 0 | nba-phi-was-2025-10-28 | 76ers vs. Wizards | 78,297,247 | 78,297,952 |
caa7239e778cea1526a1ac7ae30d7d9cc40d67c7 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xa10b073bd5bcee39a3480e067847261bebfb3c838e7fd3fd77c89555816f3ef8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Gen.G vs PSG Talon (BO1) | Event: lol-gen-tln-2025-10-15 | Choice: gen.g | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: LoL: FlyQuest vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO1) | Event: lol-fly-vks-2025-10-16 | Choice: vivo keyd stars | Confidence: 5.653030966924301e-06
3. Question: LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Secret Whales ... | kings | 0 | nba-sac-okc-2025-10-29 | Kings vs. Thunder | 78,299,357 | 78,299,731 |
85deafa8d129f0e7f132fad329ffe5041d2e871e | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x6e1cb648bf2370d6d8f18606d344466f5d349558ebc4bf5c0d885dddc926f5c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: FlyQuest vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO1) | Event: lol-fly-vks-2025-10-16 | Choice: vivo keyd stars | Confidence: 5.653030966924301e-06
2. Question: LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) | Event: lol-kt-tsw-2025-10-16 | Choice: kt rolster | Confidence: 6.1401726780685836e-09
3. Question: L... | clippers | 0 | nba-lac-gsw-2025-10-29 | Clippers vs. Warriors | 78,303,731 | 78,304,748 |
e245495d9259d31e5d0cbd04c291c2354d9c8a2a | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x8d6415eabd55809620734ca6a66b31f8a7fdfac004005a25f4f4ac090ef26963 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) | Event: lol-kt-tsw-2025-10-16 | Choice: kt rolster | Confidence: 6.1401726780685836e-09
2. Question: LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1) | Event: lol-tes-100-2025-10-16 | Choice: top esports | Confidence: 8.056294712093203e-07
3. Question: LoL: T... | cavaliers | 0 | nba-cle-bos-2025-10-29 | Cavaliers vs. Celtics | 78,340,532 | 78,341,074 |
94207c4b815c34ff471f08a13dce6f32b22f3cc3 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x32fb07ee040661a489f644b593ee5f06c85643ea3269195d33a7132ed836c3c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1) | Event: lol-tes-100-2025-10-16 | Choice: top esports | Confidence: 8.056294712093203e-07
2. Question: LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) | Event: lol-t1-cfo-2025-10-16 | Choice: t1 | Confidence: 4.236022238763938e-06
3. Question: LoL: Anyone's Legend vs... | mavericks | 0 | nba-ind-dal-2025-10-30 | Pacers vs. Mavericks | 78,343,432 | 78,351,623 |
fb2f6ecb25eb724aef2b3f8c5894a856a05e940d | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xc7b22fe5f4490aad06f633cabdfcbea275459e47b533c2a3b6f718f7824c2015 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) | Event: lol-t1-cfo-2025-10-16 | Choice: t1 | Confidence: 4.236022238763938e-06
2. Question: LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) | Event: lol-al-gen-2025-10-16 | Choice: anyone's legend | Confidence: 3.915255283484665e-07
3. Question: LoL: KT Rolster vs Top... | jazz | 0 | nba-por-uta-2025-10-30 | Trail Blazers vs. Jazz | 78,344,732 | 78,344,732 |
ee9505ea35000bb2afd39c59bdbde16b87ffc6e2 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x3ca6f5cb9705d14408aeb24405583a7170051e7789616b67df3aa8e72796813f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) | Event: lol-al-gen-2025-10-16 | Choice: anyone's legend | Confidence: 3.915255283484665e-07
2. Question: LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) | Event: lol-kt-tes-2025-10-17 | Choice: kt rolster | Confidence: 3.499415988099481e-07
3. Question: LoL: CTBC Fly... | lakers | 0.000001 | nba-lal-min-2025-10-30 | Lakers vs. Timberwolves | 78,346,069 | 78,346,069 |
2e48f4db39c18647a5dde26b30f2a9f5bd6db08e | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x1bcf4088b4c42fed7fe66ac18deb422e6fe48138fc6c61d685069523bbb90929 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) | Event: lol-kt-tes-2025-10-17 | Choice: kt rolster | Confidence: 3.499415988099481e-07
2. Question: LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) | Event: lol-cfo-al-2025-10-17 | Choice: anyone's legend | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs... | bucks | 0 | nba-gsw-mil-2025-10-31 | Warriors vs. Bucks | 78,386,239 | 78,394,948 |
36df09277ff87c0dd7d130d925660b7e6687cfb5 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xf2f82a095f6764c2083f9c00d86b9c363820dc4bb969ddee5a22c4bc94a9518d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) | Event: lol-cfo-al-2025-10-17 | Choice: anyone's legend | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) | Event: lol-g2-blg-2025-10-18 | Choice: bilibili gaming | Confidence: 0.30120739842311645
3. Question: LoL: Movist... | heat | 0 | nba-mia-sas-2025-10-31 | Heat vs. Spurs | 78,386,661 | 78,386,680 |
3454eb44229d193cd7e98bdc71800fc51e72593c | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0x5fc82536b8cc14e17477a5d3b4e1030622019f782acfc9d245beb385b68e784b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) | Event: lol-g2-blg-2025-10-18 | Choice: bilibili gaming | Confidence: 0.30120739842311645
2. Question: LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) | Event: lol-mkoi-fnc-2025-10-19 | Choice: fnatic | Confidence: 4.0556461702009703e-07
3. Question: LoL: Vivo Keyd... | hawks | 0 | nba-atl-ind-2025-10-31 | Hawks vs. Pacers | 78,426,624 | 78,427,054 |
577ebbbc8f087f65227c2acb2712acd02fd7f121 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xd6418b39fc8271a82e32827488c158ee436ea84035d93c52b499c7629785d337 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) | Event: lol-mkoi-fnc-2025-10-19 | Choice: fnatic | Confidence: 4.0556461702009703e-07
2. Question: LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) | Event: lol-vks-tln-2025-10-19 | Choice: psg talon | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Rockets vs. Thunder | Event: nba-hou... | 76ers | 0.001995 | nba-bos-phi-2025-10-31 | Celtics vs. 76ers | 78,427,748 | 78,427,748 |
61e2076fae1f0b36b7a5ca55be5947097888de88 | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xf4df9579e1f2af5f138af069a3cd4d5370ced129ea34abb4255d37cf14ff0f91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) | Event: lol-vks-tln-2025-10-19 | Choice: psg talon | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Rockets vs. Thunder | Event: nba-hou-okc-2025-10-21 | Choice: rockets | Confidence: 2.8559365792308516e-07
3. Question: Warriors vs. Lakers | Event: nba-gsw-lal-2025-10-2... | bulls | 0 | nba-nyk-chi-2025-11-01 | Knicks vs. Bulls | 78,429,118 | 78,429,647 |
39f673edf45b24076507dca49a87c029a9a4d00b | 0x161eb16874e34f545991e774b4e1ac5b65f86ef0 | 0xe8878d5aeef27514db8b4d9a15b7bc28b51a271f3d97a3d0132d18f928831ba4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockets vs. Thunder | Event: nba-hou-okc-2025-10-21 | Choice: rockets | Confidence: 2.8559365792308516e-07
2. Question: Warriors vs. Lakers | Event: nba-gsw-lal-2025-10-21 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Heat vs. Magic | Event: nba-mia-orl-2025-10-22 | Choice: heat | Confidenc... | grizzlies | 0.000001 | nba-lal-mem-2025-11-01 | Lakers vs. Grizzlies | 78,432,297 | 78,432,297 |
45284617080100224cc33748d9a5402aa68c78aa | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0xcd8e5d5fc67ee20dd560b4e20a428cff26d5920bf4cb8dbbfedcbf3e42ff6f4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16?
Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | 75,308,753 | 75,308,753 |
2e0b41f8ab9781dc062e2c67a9d6291c91949fa4 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x83fef6809c77594736233884fa9c7dc58d2b824ef633ead703133ceb784d6754 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17?
Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17
Predict the user's choice and confidence for... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | 75,331,025 | 75,331,025 |
719c64a6ce2f7df57c7bceccacfcfda4758267ef | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x657f7ffb84afe69faf2b62c7d0efc62e46529cc5fcc812c278c18c7c99499e7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-17 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on August 17? | 75,349,224 | 75,349,224 |
3fb6a12dd45279829e0768ff147dadc899b8c9a6 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x115ca34128825741d4bdb737509125b870d2b078e6b459f1268e01d11a69b6d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-17 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 89-90°F on August 17? | 75,349,463 | 75,349,463 |
9e7ad2fc6a5915e0f23de249c7ab8821f114ce07 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x887a6b4092671e0b48ae6c6fe6a314a94db564ecee4267f3719c145e84473690 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on August 19? | 75,440,952 | 75,440,952 |
83cba20a51bbdfa499fb0d0fa5fbcd9ddb47866e | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x308ae3ab50368fe041cb2f295760347ce1fbf765a7a0f43dddc8541676adf700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-111 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? | 75,895,286 | 75,895,286 |
31692cba2214dd72915c5dfea519cc40d3372528 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x324fe35fc27fc3df5ba22262ab6c8e1a03d320dff75e896efb84e330a7a51d00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on September 1? | 75,897,258 | 75,897,258 |
a5df4a2aed6ed10396ef850dae2a4089e0048a60 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x59efc06ae0bed3cba02a48cdbe04c45c4c73f893bcb3b12b5c8fa95f8f8270bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-31 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 31? | 75,927,724 | 75,927,724 |
1055e07636e3d0e508e2cd1be7c85c83804f7e14 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x3bcce16b344d6cde60605e583172601bb2a02d43679a46257415496f19b36eb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-1 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 1? | 75,961,756 | 75,961,756 |
574a24a48e21b01c371960ea095749b8bc6f300f | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x32f159a7d25533990519a81bbe721ebbc374861ef94bd2c3813ea21801a60d52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on September 2? | 76,019,873 | 76,019,873 |
65ca9691b438e2f639adbc61424a3b60c95c326f | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x69994d6484c90c16431e2a9ac9dedd1f8ac3eb67737e8fee5f255addb5f58988 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on September 2? | 76,019,873 | 76,019,873 |
4ab3a184d207be9f4e31770d5b56bc63c8c20130 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x1921c1cd384c885f1d02c067c5fe63b44ca5dd74bd6e5c88e4d6179ea6b3961f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-5 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on September 5? | 76,145,218 | 76,145,218 |
85210b5f19f3765a2b7b6ac0a2222b4786e6a9d0 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0xad8830a7c9d15d7863de8c784d54e15f95fbc39e7f9ae11d5630b1095e83b5c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-7 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69-70°F on September 7? | 76,198,074 | 76,198,074 |
76a9eb466fcc41c04ff2e939e41ea771dca26a08 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x0b7e49734f41ce300002cfba0cecc0193400a711e26a16567ef8c1bbdbac63fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-11 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on September 11? | 76,353,584 | 76,353,584 |
f16597686503c380811d209002a7b7f9cc8c2cf8 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x9a831288dd1765255c66607eebef9a6144a18e814a854f42597342df0079b9f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-11 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 11? | 76,353,584 | 76,353,584 |
d120badc0acc728eff61c51b25f49855aac02c4e | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0xc24babce57822da0cabb8d469804f2301272c3c5ee27f8278ba59b9b3e7ff759 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on September 14? | 76,475,358 | 76,475,358 |
133840793deb277cecf65767d3853bb5eeaefb8e | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0xc8fda364743876d5feadce09332295c5a4421e53b9447c07828f922b46549f2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-14 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on September 14? | 76,475,358 | 76,475,358 |
95bd9187c810e998f0dda382b9797bd6f4491e95 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x2572d2214f5ad525d537b8249c44353fc29d2a815545b78ed70f85f2c2aea6e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on September 15? | 76,491,876 | 76,491,876 |
cd7eb35966fadc7eacdd8799931749d9967ed24d | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x474e1cf8e4a756d993ea7c5db142c15757765fdeee591b711b7c9864accc1e1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on September 15? | 76,515,028 | 76,515,028 |
d3c9907eef9b282d1e3a9bdfc73d96ffeb56a972 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x7d87e63bd0be159b3cd4f69393fd14758d415afb7be756758cc913b8fa1c7fbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-15 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on September 15? | 76,515,028 | 76,515,028 |
e095e388fa57e9cdc21ba691eddcb1b8236dc778 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0xfa7e008bf6a14c5ab4ede60b0a35242e7c94225868142b4c994d75d335db995d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 0.329831 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-15 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on September 15? | 76,515,028 | 76,515,028 |
dcf1eb80a497ca3d7f33cc97cf1493f972d95121 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x4c89c3cd7e808c0213f10cec60485aacb63584ac79835a839aac458ace470d0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 0.1179 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-16 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on September 16? | 76,551,243 | 76,551,243 |
fcb35882ad59215aece6ebfe9d6645d78c1edeaf | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0xdf87862b5b8b595d732a41edd2da42e3521b1b9e6991ca001f39f190e2df01d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on September 16? | 76,551,243 | 76,551,243 |
378f1d3e7deb8ffe356eef11a9ee741b0028045a | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x3932212bd904b2e5f26e80dff0a620d1768f38cd15c896da4063ad50cb85fb02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-september-16 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 16? | 76,564,857 | 76,564,857 |
d95335f443b66b793d8c4462f3ed7eae7a5f3e44 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0xe7f6613cca8862d8343993f3515a7acd6a08cb48c659f353bb1604a24b8a32e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 0.701334 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-september-17 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on September 17? | 76,592,448 | 76,592,448 |
399aa20c39e7ac258f86b609ce88e3c841e33a3c | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x1134a1abe122b06eb1f37894a5b95cdb34f2bf812261e56b6182c05af7c7978c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 1 | lal-bil-gir-2025-09-23 | Will Athletic Club vs. Girona end in a draw? | 76,821,034 | 76,821,034 |
732699cc0da4448efda4f96e86b32d782ff8fccd | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x4e04063e3c8fab82ca6961ad3e71f3b2c393fd895bf79f644f17afbe37d525a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 1 | lal-sev-vil-2025-09-23 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-23? | 76,838,115 | 76,838,115 |
fe35625d8f86f38e5f88cdd92a9188ad7da7e2c7 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0xea83b296e885289ac5a2491a3bbf57d0eef0245515a0d692f29b554bff2dde94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 1 | lal-lev-rea-2025-09-23 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23? | 76,838,115 | 76,838,115 |
27babeba41f628c87e7700a80eda4ffdcc7511ab | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x0b986508ada6fb896f012a34cf085a2e8007c0031ca43b9cc745308fb600478f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 1 | lal-get-ala-2025-09-24 | Will Getafe vs. Alaves end in a draw? | 76,861,263 | 76,861,263 |
62fc7bf79e7d49aef000302c6488dd7339826e11 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x3af818501765ee6072000bab5c3aeb37e9b8abaa7898ad7cde01c4be2c6df84b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 1 | uel-paok-mta-2025-09-24 | Will PAOK vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv end in a draw? | 76,861,263 | 76,861,263 |
da9639b7b17c3959be17ff356ebe5cf24a355c39 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x92209cc5b6dd2c2e0a3fd86e19df09cb50f1f3c8156298137ae51e2d26c372e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the hi... | yes | 1 | uel-mid-stuk-2025-09-24 | Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-09-24? | 76,861,263 | 76,861,263 |
7fb6349b81bf56c78d9cd7113df78d8e452a64c1 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x2d53f86232fd5b9fafe921335a3282b1eed3349393bd90cfad3337331423cc5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on August 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highes... | yes | 1 | uel-ast-bol-2025-09-25 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-25? | 76,915,821 | 76,915,821 |
52782469f39f2b8fb6d4c01d8f39cd0c6c953f69 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x3d50366dd96e8e43be287f120167f78d7a0fc115d649caa176a7a30312d39f9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on August 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 89-90°F on August 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august... | yes | 1 | uel-byn-pao-2025-09-25 | Will Panathinaikos win on 2025-09-25? | 76,915,821 | 76,915,821 |
9f42bf5723c522275b340c8db37b17205a322136 | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x49a4314bcb82af103db4c75ebcb6040bd22a36df5a549851e4131c4f70d61280 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 89-90°F on August 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august... | yes | 1 | uel-ran-gkn-2025-09-25 | Will KRC Genk win on 2025-09-25? | 76,915,821 | 76,915,821 |
4a3712bfc9e74452517de840c3bc05fc1545405c | 0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5 | 0x4b338f6fc3ed17a2321c6ba29efd44d1e5b55951e58b2519b085208248aba4e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on August 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-week-1-111 | ... | yes | 1 | uel-lil-brn-2025-09-25 | Will Lille win on 2025-09-25? | 76,915,821 | 76,915,821 |
fddca74820f97f205229c00dc73933dba1c1fcf4 | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0x4015fbd7d31779f1146e60fac7f6a923b2c2aee8da51fc528593c9ebf9b02a38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m?
Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | 73,738,955 | 73,738,955 |
5ceac1922acc811c7ca2af7d76018d554a728e8b | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0x6220c4164a293367cd40eba018dd6e67c78e4d48e74158845cc9361230bcb34d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-ny... | no | 1 | who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | 73,738,955 | 73,738,955 |
15577b430ac84735bf8645713d17c5c42fce36de | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0x090d929220ed6407975a79d5fc2c8c6714a362e8dbcb205ec3e7a493080a6667 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | C... | no | 1 | mlb-home-run-derby-winner | Will Cal Raleigh win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? | 73,996,304 | 73,996,304 |
458a4184bc88e630fa208b9ed73f45c299637399 | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0x5975968bfaac9511c570968a182f8d4798eb555e7f295c78bee7eed0c4c9b2d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on July 15? | 73,996,304 | 73,996,304 |
46a80cf0fb6c5ba110def9332aa66774c8a682f0 | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0x81efe9594cc44b9bff2947a1b4cf2fbcc9e5d4b6e0a31c8288025a10445cf034 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | C... | no | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-w | Will Iga Swiatek win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,996,304 | 73,996,304 |
3cef5a4a15563b310c887f9a69cc469d6228224a | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0xa37fdedf8a5c2aacf702804c4f2702cde08a275e8949805964603d98b8c4b4a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | C... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-love-island-season-7-woman | Will Yulissa win Season 7 of Love Island USA? | 73,996,304 | 73,996,304 |
6f2e8c4a6d71be00477ae54b916fb6d4fb4786e7 | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0xe96bf0a82a91caa95e34723fe14c455a3968cbf1295a95110cda09e5ca4582af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on July 10? | 73,996,304 | 73,996,304 |
0b10a117fa1c18753c9f45b7e1ad31246bbccb52 | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0xf12033f20ab68e82f225d288dfbb9258b4b2fa57813d57f1c46269c3aa768a2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | C... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-love-island-season-7-woman | Will Andreina win Season 7 of Love Island USA? | 73,996,304 | 73,996,304 |
d04daf014c1760d23b5bef2b3ea5f50234612b50 | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0x038711aff297e3212626c2fe870557c21d9bcd89a70c102169af9446e92c8ee2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 78-79°F on July 16? | 74,066,158 | 74,066,158 |
bad8f98abec54c8ca4b0b74f961d75ed82a72de3 | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0x0e707d36e0a95acb4a1b70ebd7bea77ed4b69c5b0eae8f61a7181a8ab526bdab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on July 16? | 74,138,232 | 74,138,232 |
b52625c54f0b5fc345ac3686353f3be51ee08757 | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0xbc45dc588110a3f84a2d6ac607e3441dd024a03036f4d6f27a21b320e0d95f42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | C... | no | 1 | mlb-all-star-game-mvp | Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2025 MLB All-Star Game MVP? | 74,138,232 | 74,138,232 |
8312dc2edbb16974a4065953060aab1f25478513 | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0xeea9427f8f7f73c0b21e14baba2f8f4dcebc8f6e728a49d725bd4cd3a6c4a96f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | C... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 18? | 74,138,232 | 74,138,232 |
6e5ca2457476a8d25b22fcf75b6aa448ddccab99 | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0x192c5bd32956cff121b71f7904faa2b48c40882f53139cfaa6f83de3ea39fe91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | C... | yes | 1 | mls-soccer-real-salt-lake-vs-fc-cincinnati | MLS: Will Real Salt Lake beat FC Cincinnati? | 74,203,005 | 74,203,005 |
7b8f7262665b079221b84f9b5ebfc8903f7aadfd | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0x663f6bcd2f2cdd5455fd2e731acda1d2c56e9bbd2b11cc47011355cb53cc3525 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | C... | no | 1 | esports-world-cup-dota-2 | Will Team Spirit win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament? | 74,203,005 | 74,203,005 |
11f09171fdb4ef5ea674d1b1568ed1d42b8aa291 | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0x56d03f7bfd1a2c12e30dbeb6bb208041016e9dc68641e7fd1a879f928f0218d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | C... | no | 1 | japan-house-of-councillors-election | Will LDP hold the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | 74,268,890 | 74,268,890 |
9540a2e712dc2079c605d0e23f58368c7d5eb091 | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0x9501b9a9f9e8f40f92706fa19298349863e6a6167ab8a4553fa3d665e7f47c90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | C... | yes | 1 | smurfs-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $9-11m? | 74,268,890 | 74,268,890 |
62d080c2ae26eda213b54e9abbd3bd740cfcd8eb | 0x1690daedf91758fa77ec220e1caf590a745cd6c4 | 0x5e9d1edfcf107df4d7421c63d573d476e5e86a842ca2435e632ebe09a45a9d13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m? | Event: 28-years-later-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Event: who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | C... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 18–25? | 74,387,965 | 74,387,965 |
4502e5074c18aa65effdf6369a5912a3118436a4 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x3cc0a3d89670f30463e3e33d8cb12315c0904bcae46b99751416bdeb1e7bc2e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18?
Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | 63,221,873 | 63,221,873 |
e737e03be279b4c7590fb77799e1f674180c3ade | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x46b90139f58c47de7eff3fff4234135f42979ed2bb0e8e0b9b6cc640320a4483 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19?
Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output ... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | 63,244,474 | 63,244,474 |
5aa3ee0257640d3c3505deea748b38d6a3e9b72b | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xa9a203d99adcb68ee875e4101e3200fc2783aba989f1054dd2f712c7dd26008e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Israel strike Iran o... | no | 1 | israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oct 19? | 63,284,401 | 63,284,401 |
f0cc04786c41f9122e4c6310c9cfc6a0401b2f31 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x1652ed7c8396de76eb1c18c202e75def313f836c8184f52ae4236ca26990f115 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | yes | 1 | new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? | 63,969,384 | 63,969,384 |
42a1f3683925769b1bcc800abb4694efd4ba61ef | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x2010ff3939e8e664dd57369aa907bbaa6d03ae18be27fe3ab2f4cdcb95a8b2ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? | 63,977,074 | 63,977,074 |
c3b3d1420a1d051aa46bddbf590eb8c3a73c94c8 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x7606802127355512c8f8ff9c70ef27a2717a8554374d84452de4c7d28147338d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | yes | 1 | georgia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | 63,981,617 | 63,981,617 |
be1eb2760a53883b42bb15a6f2a164a9ff639195 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xbb01eefb24a38a9aa1921ec168d3049e7374b28a2540937d06b3ff2524d66627 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | yes | 1 | michigan-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | 63,984,999 | 63,984,999 |
02f26c35f55343ec90d8310caab56519c9a10a24 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x20ad007812089b0cf23b12b62ea05e7427a1ecf2504609716e230f6567480def | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | bulls | 1 | nba-min-chi-2024-11-07 | Timberwolves vs. Bulls | 64,023,060 | 64,023,060 |
ef0943bf718c57756b2dc3c98dc288a1dad51f5a | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x56da46ab2543b293ff7bbe88e9ac848a6bf793e8107ea620ee4308b2690f49a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Will Trump tweet 110-119 times Nov 1-8? | 64,047,753 | 64,047,753 |
d79c9623b05d6322f680ae44edc4ad4cea0494d1 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xb96ef5b0b0175ed86de4df291a3ddb6a739f47d191eb3125f7e52352a6b35fd0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Will Trump tweet 100-109 times Nov 1-8? | 64,047,753 | 64,047,753 |
52d96c3b1e8d23f10f41cd36a39eafe7d162e780 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xbebee362b3b0f0fdd974f35e2955b60c1755b67471bc7ce617d0a2b5488a81ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 1-8? | 64,047,753 | 64,047,753 |
33795df210c461624821bf3df01bce0ec1deef43 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xdaa534b42c5a55c88e8d88f9507b4f227062d995103df0809d43d975894574d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Will Trump tweet 130 or more times Nov 1-8? | 64,047,753 | 64,047,753 |
8e60899ab93329e7a862cea521eeefaed85e94af | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x265366ede72d73e137b2b9095a6cdc9be6149290caa295738a95e3d881ad0865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | 64,214,533 | 64,214,533 |
b4036e32ecf710db29886f212e9de544a3a7dc24 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x25057f47fd558d29aeadd904c4e24d0c7b567762bd4d5eab1112e068450752ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | yes | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-8-15 | Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 8-15? | 64,238,855 | 64,238,855 |
3d88e3f591ba5d7c3eb40273629cc1b2e2706aee | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x87bd430b9661d042f611be288458b872dce2be1665ed76e73a121d775afaf2cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-8-15 | Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 8-15? | 64,329,041 | 64,329,041 |
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