sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7cababdd2743512f787f959dc4858e6b67528579 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x3d6f28bc82faaafd7c96480451eb6ba0d57d56308cfaecfed74545472cfb16ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Will the fight end in Round 1? | 64,350,782 | 64,350,782 |
1fb1f736632865c5c9c6bfc5e76c947ce8b388ef | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xb4961db4b70b4ebeebce6dee9816eda7a18443ae2d25240a70a0614a01f44ed2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | 64,350,782 | 64,350,782 |
835297b8b786797ff1119249c8974119f6ec99ba | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xfdd29522f1c89bde112b703c61b045757b24286668ed4d828aae51f0e8804e87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | uefa-nations-league-england-vs-ireland | Will Ireland beat England? | 64,411,346 | 64,411,346 |
ac91f0828cc04c542538ee436dfbeb968d357d8f | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x346ccc87762a99de5055828cba5867393e44d0eb636d9b301e8b33db1b264c4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-france | Will Italy beat France? | 64,415,310 | 64,415,310 |
6f53a520539465c406edb5824843eebbc6d44f03 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xc48a07993d7072b21aa35e297efc0b6799932c6bd027c3f7f19b7661bc938e93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-commerce-secretary | Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Commerce Secretary? | 64,492,318 | 64,492,318 |
106bae701cea7efc4f5f8d9c67740d37206a975c | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x686535d647e16c7a2538c525a96cd93e79b1c128962fba48cc14167692ed376d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-education-secretary | Will Trump nominate Ben Carson for Education Secretary? | 64,503,717 | 64,503,717 |
a1840f2e015958fa46f39b1033d4754beb28e3bc | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x1fe73973d40c2a0bdbfa38581374d4dc580c5cb38c9131e491589851e76bea9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-agriculture-secretary | Will Trump nominate Thomas Massie for Agriculture Secretary? | 64,657,304 | 64,657,304 |
c0c3b05523e62edf2f182052b70a4b9694f8228c | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x6c661a448ce62286d3f3f529e93d00d97e8490190802cccce32ad29163086307 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | uruguay-presidential-election-winner | Will Álvaro Delgado win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | 64,983,084 | 64,983,084 |
db85c32401700a4da3760a1d7ccc71fea7cc1738 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x79b7bf06ea3da433c50cd395f898ee55537c7d9e86fd7e020066ced99a8f06c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Will Brighton win on 2024-12-05? | 65,141,058 | 65,141,058 |
730985dc1fd7615f90dc9753c91017a8cd7d0911 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x7feafa3f1f156980a734def137e086071e02dee8a1567a53ea5e02597477e3f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | yes | 0.9998 | epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Will Fulham win on 2024-12-05? | 65,141,058 | 65,141,058 |
50b224e025eff00d597fa3f927c78fb7cf516921 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x45b4eccf3ff1093be9c2dba9bbb19d1536103a76aac586f0e5b2bb61700b93f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-29-dec-6 | Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 29-Dec 6? | 65,166,699 | 65,166,699 |
304aab6b413206278b12215c55c8c9bb8be2815a | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x53d67612608ce8063fd1504a60f3b43d763a82cc17e87c1d1200a96c50e53669 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | epl-lei-bri-2024-12-08 | Will Brighton win on 2024-12-08? | 65,242,799 | 65,242,799 |
f04644e33fcc8cb6ebf7e377c46dd6c700dac2c5 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x7163f98615e577c3220ce47ea37460a544b52384194495f319d5ab943aabfc75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | 65,243,452 | 65,243,452 |
5a0179f2a1b7556961ab5d761fb71dbecbb05cbe | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x12079c9217d2b98163da06d561f17c4938cc81cd7d82d066855b97331b9b9c24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | yes | 1 | popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | GOP wins popular vote by 6-7%? | 65,634,639 | 65,634,639 |
6888922cdb176320c9925bd03b8698220fded073 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x3ae203481b1c0e6ff497aa7c12ab347892fcc58d4d5883f65ff34a2e13cab89e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | epl-wes-bri-2024-12-21 | Will Brighton win on 2024-12-21? | 65,777,725 | 65,777,725 |
4b71ee77ffda1a01e1bff25994120a951f05504f | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xa007f6c22fa1cf1c54ccb0a485e4b168dc7df63a7ecbab195ac0763712f37adc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oc... | no | 1 | epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | 65,802,524 | 65,802,524 |
fb755e1aefc8caacba8ffd152fd62f286d70e263 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xa022c47b119f8959c02b2fdd4edd57030e29352a25f38302d4c58ec42ea3395a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-tot-wes-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oct 19? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a Republican win New York Presi... | no | 1 | epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Will Tottenham vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | 65,874,294 | 65,874,294 |
1eaac384e2802df2f9b84cfefd2c7d57c9178d17 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xa41a7b05ceac8486d9428811659790aa92ace0fdc942b2458176c1b63d0bc443 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oct 19? | Event: israel-military-response-against-iran-when-oct-14-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? | Event: new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-22? | 65,874,294 | 65,874,294 |
c04eeb49636caa02fdf483470404979596544e68 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xa405336b05bc3d7459f6fbb9a334865842a9c2b9a50c0a6abaf61621b9d828d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? | Event: new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Will Josh Allen be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | 67,248,299 | 67,248,299 |
767b30b3636eb874816e42cb7b58e2b0006ca1c6 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x3494efcd06ff53ad06ad27ac3d8aa87cea87ef50716639e26d254fc9f3260978 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? | Event: which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-wes-2025-02-22 | Will West Ham win on 2025-02-22? | 68,250,727 | 68,250,727 |
20fcd3c7f43b80a693f1a9d2f03417b97a70faf0 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xcd1970ed16af614f6023b9eec75c5b0ed168d406eded126acb8a9f018112dc2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | Event: georgia-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Tim... | no | 1 | epl-new-not-2025-02-23 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-23? | 68,293,005 | 68,293,005 |
b755478bcab1f455f0d97a815c3e3a8b1758b4a2 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xb7faecd2db357e4634fe87ef9bb48b4e1305cd618276d730b73190662fe6bafd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Event: michigan-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Timberwolves vs. Bulls | Event: nba-min-chi-2024-11-07 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 110-119 times Nov 1-8? | Eve... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? | 68,319,862 | 68,319,862 |
350049b2f3b17d41b563a0f42a81a29d8adec123 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x176a93762f4a9b47ef6ce4ba55c7aac71d538c6c7fd600649b3c332551438f3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Timberwolves vs. Bulls | Event: nba-min-chi-2024-11-07 | Choice: bulls | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 110-119 times Nov 1-8? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 100-109 times Nov 1-8? | Event: donald-trump-of-tw... | yes | 1 | donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-feb-21-28 | Will Trump post less than 100 times on Truth Feb 21-28? | 68,415,741 | 68,415,741 |
412b8089b4d7d64a5cce06d7e57bd4b50c114de5 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x4168a18ce024b93a81fb13841d9afcf5575aa0fcf2372b6ddda33b92cc3d3ebf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 110-119 times Nov 1-8? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 100-109 times Nov 1-8? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 1-8? |... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-feb-21-28 | Will Trump post 100-119 times on Truth Feb 21-28? | 68,499,082 | 68,499,082 |
85609396cdbee115eba5c8a52a5a047b21689c95 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xce403161064c4acc0ca5e9060a58681afa63cc93a34ec106f10a1864145fc168 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 100-109 times Nov 1-8? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 1-8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 130 or more times Nov 1-8? ... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-feb-21-28 | Will Trump post 120-139 times on Truth Feb 21-28? | 68,499,082 | 68,499,082 |
d4891e362c3c3ee0b692b410c74821278a8d40fc | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x17883de059871fe57cf994d3568d73fa103c99dbdd40a1427a3c3ff549c881b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 1-8? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 130 or more times Nov 1-8? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | E... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 2? | 68,595,067 | 68,595,067 |
bd7d6e18527c9c626e620efe18933bb95f32a0f5 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xaa7a58a65c199f7be13d2cd9fc518cdec1ede26017ef9dc6c91711ffb711153a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 130 or more times Nov 1-8? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-1-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 10-14 times... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-18 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 18? | 69,221,648 | 69,221,648 |
b08fbbfeb630568e5420c2d63d1e7fe84f0d4e24 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x9938906262dda28983f28915dbb409fddc55f159fac74b1dd1517fdaefd40aa1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 8-15? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-8-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times N... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 18? | 69,227,977 | 69,227,977 |
35cd0e9fdc851ffe8d33e9584e1b6e4e5605e985 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xe8af8527493e27bf12ab8af500cfb3b228d5c174750f92d35a6c10f3333e850b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 8-15? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-nov-8-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 8-15? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-8-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the fight end in Round 1? | Event: p... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 19? | 69,265,496 | 69,265,496 |
54e97b08c47602eeb46e5dcf73d18770b6d7e7c1 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x5073f74333fc68e1e1cafacd3a81d3dbb33a00a08af0667fa254d4bcc9c4c405 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 8-15? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-8-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the fight end in Round 1? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Eve... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? | 69,301,474 | 69,301,474 |
64be38e3ccb35581267c7253a9af36902b03bfac | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x3f08bc831d9898043a6925642c9994abc517e4b090adffc2250d68f880849999 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 1? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ireland beat England? | Event: uefa-... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | 69,338,401 | 69,338,401 |
8ad19eb9f3237da8a260691f04cebd7e9a470aac | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x04791e48698f33f6d1af0707226918cec40651fec712d538689253f6f88ef657 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ireland beat England? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-ireland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Italy beat France? | E... | no | 1 | how-many-upsets-in-first-round-of-ncaa-tournament | March Madness: 7 first round upsets? | 69,353,795 | 69,353,795 |
e9dbfaf669d7ce64fab7a1fadae6f8705ccfc787 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xb0acc3ef6710e933b96b877c4f74dcf16affb0ce71ce46c68a2de783c211fd3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ireland beat England? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-ireland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat France? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Commerce Secretary?... | no | 1 | energy-infrastructure-ceasefire-in-ukraine-in-march | Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? | 69,623,591 | 69,623,591 |
fa57a0bd3405b0a4a5e096595205770525c9898c | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xa64eb22a681005826d3963da32f37d7846936a80d202667d1e07a7e603958bdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat France? | Event: uefa-nations-league-italy-vs-france | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Commerce Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-commerce-secretary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump nominat... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-bri-2025-04-05 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-05? | 69,947,977 | 69,947,977 |
45eb38b501f8f69fad20bb87b9e1660ff3d8e937 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xdd4e27a1e6f13aafa2066a11d1a855e9743791a45164fb31c30fa94454f19536 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Commerce Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-commerce-secretary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Ben Carson for Education Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-education-secretary | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | epl-mun-mac-2025-04-06 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-06? | 69,989,765 | 69,989,765 |
271605afff1defc4b7e52f655d30195eaf0a02fe | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x7110b30da2182652b4ff814a50f1c09a8000716d8a517d0ed5bba10a12b26120 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Ben Carson for Education Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-education-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Thomas Massie for Agriculture Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-agriculture-secretary | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-ast-2025-04-09 | Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? | 70,114,400 | 70,114,400 |
7a5ffcc85c2585506c20d3c60ad69e3291c5c7bb | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x84903cf09d2b2acbd1bc203867cc8f7a1dbe78d82929654030149a45bd4587bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Thomas Massie for Agriculture Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-agriculture-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Álvaro Delgado win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | Event: uruguay-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Con... | yes | 1 | ucl-bar-dor-2025-04-09 | Will Barcelona vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw? | 70,114,400 | 70,114,400 |
345caa281645c215ae41b342bb49ad575c29a8e3 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x2fca428b7073930315a670fcacc08f9846cee516eebc003da11b4403a8c0df2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Álvaro Delgado win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | Event: uruguay-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-05?... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-wes-2025-04-13 | Will Liverpool vs. West Ham end in a draw? | 70,268,595 | 70,268,595 |
1f7da47e62f58ce50fb1836082b6a3cc396c49ed | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x525acb81b587c0787ace047d4df37732ea94af9e300f157784169a00d91d9b2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9997998094817836
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 29-Dec 6? | Event: elon-mus... | yes | 1 | epl-che-ips-2025-04-13 | Will Ipswich win on 2025-04-13? | 70,268,595 | 70,268,595 |
5be2fe82cae3d7462ca2be0b238a947bb4825689 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xd2c6609701ea0105a3ea13127ce1fc37c39a7f9c4d675b674cba5a62392d9118 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9997998094817836
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 29-Dec 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-29-dec-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-08? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-che-ips-2025-04-13 | Will Chelsea vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | 70,268,595 | 70,268,595 |
020935d7d0485691437976cca758291f43b287e4 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xe26504ad4e80c9ce1bcf7536246f7241258be51b7fd0929e17590b6e3b4f1189 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 29-Dec 6? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-nov-29-dec-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-lei-bri-2024-12-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-tot-2025-04-13 | Will Wolves win on 2025-04-13? | 70,268,595 | 70,268,595 |
d76aec8465cf14c201442bd8da7733d05b8ae225 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x961ee2529ff3c3b27a9b7dc424c1d7046f52bdd5b4ae38bd74ae65f0838fabaa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-lei-bri-2024-12-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 6-7%? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-pr... | no | 1 | ecuador-presidential-election | Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? | 70,281,683 | 70,281,683 |
b87c9b4a04420003fa6ca84bb92bfb94317cb92d | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x6d79243961a28e9f95fe526b54b9855f1548b18db32d0995d0b1869f91948b5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 6-7%? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-21? | Event: ep... | yes | 1 | ucl-ast-psg-2025-04-15 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? | 70,357,804 | 70,357,804 |
a0fad0cd5a05f5da9c733d28419fb21aae369e63 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xe4693d1f306511f107802bae4655a64925a1db664b44500403354827a8680ca1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GOP wins popular vote by 6-7%? | Event: popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-21? | Event: epl-wes-bri-2024-12-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: ep... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-15 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 67°F or higher on April 15? | 70,357,804 | 70,357,804 |
ff5ee5ff3e0ad21f205f5152d12bc20910a36f12 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xbf9916ea9b3ce80b4287bdcf20212f66ec852404589a776cc657351afb8b59a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-21? | Event: epl-wes-bri-2024-12-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on April 16? | 70,399,559 | 70,399,559 |
3b8bed6b5648d55d0e228fa8bb8a79723ed420e3 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x281d9ec394b073b5406dbcce9c34527ceee2c3403f1b220f9453ebc1f2db93c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-17 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on April 17? | 70,438,195 | 70,438,195 |
540a1090724eb5f0039132344dc7368de8ce651d | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xbca47c50bd8ff585a90daa0b3e3c616cc6e0200f746caa69f0c9abb2415d824c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Josh Allen be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | Event: fantas... | yes | 1 | uel-laz-bod-2025-04-17 | Will Lazio win on 2025-04-17? | 70,438,195 | 70,438,195 |
9310dc62b1baa7169905b6d40de2755cced4851d | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xf36b955390a9bfaf8fa246feba1bb2aadeb2cbc91505859b22e4950a586266c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Allen be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | Event: fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-02-22? | Event: epl-ars-we... | no | 1 | uel-fra-tot-2025-04-17 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-04-17? | 70,438,195 | 70,438,195 |
5c12a1f51d4c0ed6b204d9d101a94c811e124f34 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x19b54a09271edf142cac906ad0bfe68c30d059815029195ff716d73bc615ad91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Josh Allen be the top Fantasy Quarterback? | Event: fantasy-football-top-qb-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-02-22? | Event: epl-ars-wes-2025-02-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-23? | Event: epl-new-n... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-18 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on April 18? | 70,465,583 | 70,465,583 |
95bd6893ed2b2ffd841bb1f1731acb52b2584940 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x949bb7a1de98d9d4af214ee87168dd6da711ec075f7357710ba74e169baad003 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-02-22? | Event: epl-ars-wes-2025-02-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-23? | Event: epl-new-not-2025-02-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on April 19? | 70,495,739 | 70,495,739 |
2e9a1328310ba8b0e6625182786dfc8ac09fcb42 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x81abe621793f1fbb39ea0f0bfa9caeecd907cc36bb7289a430b2eb14465cb906 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-23? | Event: epl-new-not-2025-02-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump pos... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-new-2025-04-19 | Will Aston Villa vs. Newcastle end in a draw? | 70,519,990 | 70,519,990 |
7980698f4024fe9c44c3f198d75cf79735ba2dd5 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x55eab89172bea83626cdb1f8ada04a7f25ee5f4e83ec5d7cc8753668cd22d1ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post less than 100 times on Truth Feb 21-28? | Event: donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-feb-21-28 | Choice: yes ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-19 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 84-85°F on April 19? | 70,527,807 | 70,527,807 |
ca6d8ec9f47b8c687d8585920c13913acab452f4 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x636d2d1f87f28645f1f107e0048987fdf19b302c961ff7864be7ef5d768ca69b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post less than 100 times on Truth Feb 21-28? | Event: donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-feb-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 100-119 times on Truth Feb 21-28? | Event: donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-feb-21-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | epl-ful-che-2025-04-20 | Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | 70,544,462 | 70,544,462 |
9db0fca4ec909aa2fa0c87e90018fb093b803577 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xeec962603c7048cfd530997032ebac10efdf219bf2f37d842d0e100bcac58434 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post 100-119 times on Truth Feb 21-28? | Event: donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-feb-21-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 120-139 times on Truth Feb 21-28? | Event: donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-feb-21-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Will Wolves win on 2025-04-20? | 70,544,462 | 70,544,462 |
f4d6101cfd4b07883f767c532a45388ed60dc6b6 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xa6a0b5179bb736c1c0b9edba75156cfad7a28680fc23bf2476fd193a8cf58099 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post 120-139 times on Truth Feb 21-28? | Event: donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-feb-21-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-2 | Choice: no | Confidence... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on April 20? | 70,570,723 | 70,570,723 |
0eb397b7ba1509605bcb185a876786a0202b92f8 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xab7111971f6cd16c75482586db240655a072c518c1d88c831a8c80b1d66123bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-18 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | epl-lei-liv-2025-04-20 | Will Leicester win on 2025-04-20? | 70,570,723 | 70,570,723 |
bd4a84780d644fa880932f77f70f598478afe27b | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x8d80ee93bbd96867f0de257ebff9256f9824c24cdb19aa5e0d105723ffbf29c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-18 | Choice: n... | no | 1 | epl-tot-not-2025-04-21 | Will Tottenham vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? | 70,603,730 | 70,603,730 |
795d47affe1b3cccf689c3e9aa8d2e877684c467 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xe85a60bb5fa0d2ae9d8f0ddf88d4b73fe7c6073fed2f4081149de9172eeb5cce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-19 | Cho... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on April 21? | 70,603,730 | 70,603,730 |
13fc1f73d9d9fdb7769b11d179be10d77630da1f | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0xe210964420c199e104b11c2fefeae1cf672c3b9303a89b0acd4f931b5df0695a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-21 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 60-61°F on April 21? | 70,609,448 | 70,609,448 |
d39396ddaa684a6ab0a1744f1c9714284d446ae1 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x0e6f8d90b5b8628970858cee01ce0801ef5932ee167ea7aa6b90bbb30feede96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: March Madness: 7 first round upset... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-cry-2025-04-23 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-23? | 70,682,712 | 70,682,712 |
1b2b183fc9027bd143a2b3ddca8cb03f14350402 | 0x169ec69b2d0bc6fb5bd7ab414218092f849cde26 | 0x5be1e900fb2e95a1c97f46506a658e8cfdf05dec9f3be4b88836dbf851e30a10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: March Madness: 7 first round upsets? | Event: how-many-upsets-in-first-round-of-ncaa-tournament | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Energy infrastructure cease... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on April 24? | 70,721,890 | 70,721,890 |
d011fa456f4ac591d82d86a5a60c76617f8eab74 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x21f3459a3a8fc82c56b0206e4d4dbcdead14ce840e73d824ffbb828f876982c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21?
Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | 72,775,744 | 72,775,744 |
30f91d42045be795f50b28dd7798858c35ebcef2 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x5844c062cef913e0d160a5076e6dce75a0e92d5c00e7703ea5e5a77c1b256043 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense?
Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target ma... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | 72,896,608 | 72,896,608 |
a8a1a74ad99b033b523f1797a40fb78544198cd0 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x7bf80fbe0ea036b71d90350d5535296ea644a5c4274502fd131db506a679ed66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Canada ... | yes | 1 | concacaf-gold-cup-canada-vs-honduras | Will Canada beat Honduras? | 72,919,585 | 72,919,585 |
f5685570fa0e9811bfb2e883adf1fd222f214baf | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xb3c7fbb913dd41e5e1ce7e8b7e2cc02d5a8e8f2f3c07344a3cb4ab675f75c017 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-monterrey-vs-inter-milan | Will Inter Milan beat Monterrey? | 72,919,585 | 72,919,585 |
e77d0825917574cd7ec7f8e53fee12d8ecb952e4 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x9cd0dbfa92a2f08b240503c40f7fd3f8b04ccae2caa9cbbf57c6456074c2c446 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | cs2-blasttv-austin-major | Will Natus Vincere win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? | 73,690,433 | 73,690,433 |
45c696563c3c49f5269072f1f7640789b429bb82 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xba7cd0f8ed63078157cabcf78a45446f0611ce7a55721db53e6da46e086a3996 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-mac-2025-08-16 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-16? | 75,297,661 | 75,297,661 |
076ffd6fec6bb503acc48af34d8b1c534e74cf93 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x4472973213244c75974e74162c79f4c51878dd027d332796d209ad5529ea227f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? | 77,908,039 | 77,908,039 |
762cc8f2406557c297b8624c020f56d461e32a6f | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x6357420f127da202885b329b0ab345d8e4cad127e8f85f3919cbcc43b5fc1511 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | 77,995,585 | 77,995,585 |
5966fe84812c79717c8a048d2ff6493e26b5860b | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x203724b6732e51443876cb7d6f057885ae7d5f492693aa816e0961ea8afd9ed6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? | 77,995,645 | 77,995,645 |
1da07fa8440f97cc538c0b91d133f9e6d63dfe6d | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xaec25e41ac7ccfbf5f5bae4dd75618bd0c43e929a6dfd738385ed10b42ac1bb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | ucl-vil-mnc-2025-10-21 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? | 77,995,645 | 77,995,645 |
b22c917d1a81b4cfb88b31a8bbbaa5f21cb7809c | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x3a7cd6b4c02882654bb7b63f2fc496683095890a9ed42efd4dd5980ce23dd19c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-not-2025-10-26 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-26? | 78,208,719 | 78,208,719 |
36f81725367cd2958019a36429d3e6240d729b3e | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xa97bbc94057df6a6a718f21738cfaa78ff8a6c1cf5c0ed9fb27a3fd1bdd5b8b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | no | 1 | arg-bar-boc-2025-10-11 | Will CA Barracas Central win on 2025-10-11? | 78,254,764 | 78,254,764 |
1a18a44eab5637a562eaa69b36f17f2e734a745f | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x88cc982ef6102d2202214c0c53c59a629eeefb084f24a0ce4a38a6b9a4af43d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | no | 1 | fl1-olm-ang-2025-10-29 | Will Angers SCO win on 2025-10-29? | 78,364,386 | 78,364,386 |
8f961559371fbfefb80b6c52158c81b3ce093fd4 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xd05b0bccd50d42f6ec38d5f21ad588ca880549fbb0f3a11830ea30a1b1b47d06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | efl-cfc-wol-2025-10-29 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,364,386 | 78,364,386 |
011bc5b3c3b9c00219804539b61c80e87df231fc | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xa4742b0ca4d353f98bbc06ac1f9716121011315915073dbcc455f106f5b87798 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | no | 1 | ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05 | Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-05? | 78,645,569 | 78,645,569 |
1a8bbbff66bf45c4d2ec524e93fa0b5a4ee68f96 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x9a1e320340488a0a26b7bbe5ee16e108978e969434c19c2bb53023ff7ce33034 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | uef-mol-ita-2025-11-13 | Will Italy win on 2025-11-13? | 78,988,612 | 78,988,612 |
7939d4429857dac7d5a19eca35934f667570916d | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x990da5cb42847870916d21704ca03e89968fa47ad2423dc53b23fd703e2aa3e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | cs2-blast-rivals-season-2-2025-winner | Will FURIA win the 2025 Blast Premier Rivals Season 2 Tournament? | 79,105,835 | 79,105,835 |
2add9d79cdb85cb2f71070ebceda8bb392e1d864 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xaa35bfbb79fdee6ec8c659ba3fffefa8fc23e37683ba410f118f56ac6c2a5ba1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Will England win on 2025-11-16? | 79,114,402 | 79,114,402 |
cbc9a76742fa7d5c580d36525874d8f0969e3735 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x43f5741147c0d4d806b9fa65b99bcbbc47ea71bfc31ef82cbdf3c42f18d81b24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | no | 1 | uef-mon-hrv-2025-11-17 | Will Montenegro win on 2025-11-17? | 79,161,715 | 79,161,715 |
94c6486e12c3b0137febf29ca97dd67bbc6c3e67 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x544e73675828daf1dd0a0ed6945d3dc7e9c017c1c1e01e6dd246f15cf0e55000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | no | 1 | fif-cha-moz-2025-11-17 | Will Chad win on 2025-11-17? | 79,183,270 | 79,183,270 |
f863667f8c26a67e2883081edc8c40e3dbd83306 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xa20fa6eb1f1ba7f86d84e7708e8c116182be5c001b5762e6b02209e1e7c1b735 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | fif-col-aus-2025-11-18 | Will Colombia win on 2025-11-18? | 79,221,455 | 79,221,455 |
136b859930784e872a89af43bdacf71fc16d9aef | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xd3c1383eb973d35eb6fcfad31ad44816c64303bfa8a67fc75bef276e33e5d89c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | fif-ecu-nzl-2025-11-18 | Will Ecuador win on 2025-11-18? | 79,221,455 | 79,221,455 |
49ddc2fe9ab84c2ed03d914980deb3efa00b50e6 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x1457d203170f24f4f43be7043fe6a3375cc2ff3ad0db1ff97fcaea138838cfae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | no | 1 | bra-juv-cru-2025-11-20 | Will EC Juventude win on 2025-11-20? | 79,290,233 | 79,290,233 |
5e68c39785726b8fc37d97918160ab223afb2fc5 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xdb185e1b86e4bb0a168ffedbd3bc52ccfa33a4d0ecb4ef9a0767d6d4c091ed1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | bra-juv-cru-2025-11-20 | Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-20? | 79,290,263 | 79,290,263 |
85f8ec9eea6ef8345433455295a902cbf94462a7 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xbd82d24b55e31d11daa54d133c13c04bb99d63a9395c1f5820c24ad127f9ab9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | carabao-cup-winner | Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? | 79,333,930 | 79,333,930 |
c37d59b2f076449eb8a7d830d3e7a41a42a6b072 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x2e90ffa716434d060b54095848137bad0c46a96bf94d119519bf236cc6a21c04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | no | 1 | bra-flu-fla-2025-11-19 | Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-11-19? | 79,333,934 | 79,333,934 |
60312a83905eeb32b9b32b3a55fdd910717073be | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x52d39de10277f2fba567aa62cd4f76eadaf1c0095a968b02d0c6758010d91dee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | no | 1 | mls-nas-mia-2025-11-01 | Will Nashville SC win on 2025-11-01? | 79,333,934 | 79,333,934 |
ba3aaa86680b40995fd8ae888f510d2233b01b2c | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x7c8ff2a6ce0beee4b48d9d3a148a836279c376c31aeae1cdd6fdcc1ea585fd38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | bra-pal-vit-2025-11-19 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-19? | 79,333,934 | 79,333,934 |
dc1bf06d4cc6295a2d740b703d2a1284ef71a0e5 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x88495bc7b3b737c4535892bb66428f461984570794f6e15d01c935cac93f30b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | ucl-qar-cfc-2025-11-05 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05? | 79,333,934 | 79,333,934 |
25e72ba3ef02f7c8479922c5e0da1185f147a538 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x8d5190b55ca3afc7233bfe8eb1cefe0e0101f9c71def551c5f495eae8421cb9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | no | 1 | bra-bah-fec-2025-11-20 | Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-11-20? | 79,333,934 | 79,333,934 |
f596c40ce0884a39a0508d802684e254378f289e | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xed5f4e1cd9b239dba49f27bf7c822a36d08681438cc14f224fecd1def79d8d54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras... | yes | 1 | epl-che-cry-2025-08-17 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17? | 79,333,934 | 79,333,934 |
56f22318a47039bcea517afa07b5d88fee75ab71 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x33911dad881adb208486b16cd7dbf8e835349d89b312b8e840db2b590d64c637 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras? | Event: concacaf-gold-cup-canada-vs-honduras | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monterr... | yes | 1 | bra-int-cam-2025-11-02 | Will SC Internacional win on 2025-11-02? | 79,333,935 | 79,333,935 |
ddfd2e42b3ede94d90f22dc7005d9aef1a4dfe9c | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x4d447b4db26de9247abbebbda572ccfc9408a7252209d8d3feb9ac9962922a1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Canada beat Honduras? | Event: concacaf-gold-cup-canada-vs-honduras | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monterrey? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-monterrey-vs-inter-milan | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Natus Vincere win the BLAST.tv Austin ... | yes | 1 | fl1-met-rcl-2025-10-29 | Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-29? | 79,333,935 | 79,333,935 |
68abec295e303e235a2879520aca6d7daefc16d1 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xa1319ba34a0c998cb06ba22480391589dafdc8a09758039c6156fca37c972460 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monterrey? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-monterrey-vs-inter-milan | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Natus Vincere win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? | Event: cs2-blasttv-austin-major | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City ... | yes | 1 | ucl-liv-rma-2025-11-04 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? | 79,333,935 | 79,333,935 |
404fd8b83afd94b3f44ad9c61a210df57950503c | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xabcf0e470a746669713d034f790d12ddd4140afaff2313abcd51b6f929f2c0e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Natus Vincere win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? | Event: cs2-blasttv-austin-major | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? ... | no | 1 | mls-clb-fcc-2025-11-02 | Will Columbus Crew win on 2025-11-02? | 79,333,935 | 79,333,935 |
86171ced91c43c947afff61759e9e8eb6f54cdff | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xacd6a07550dcffad0c91ab59b698635431884b8f43e84380786a681d35844e78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-u... | no | 1 | epl-sun-wes-2025-08-16 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-08-16? | 79,333,935 | 79,333,935 |
338c5651f0cfc342c3e4985468a094805a892275 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xf719ec1efeaba6f3f115198384808dacb081565f1eee01e8978fb5d03f1158bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event... | yes | 1 | bun-bay-fre-2025-11-22 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-22? | 79,368,906 | 79,368,906 |
7c52dfa97a82e6ac16f43be5c6143a3d8a65f915 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x17d975a4e99b4294bfd4099e1af9c87e49d8d8dfc70fe13df58ca708ff6bbc0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? ... | yes | 1 | bra-fla-bra-2025-11-22 | Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-22? | 79,401,185 | 79,401,185 |
667cdaf5d48d794cb81d3ed5b7b443c6f2921351 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x8060c7b6ab0216970eb28e5509e19a9c06ba64b6e4940f316a559b7a185ea747 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-vil-mnc-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-... | no | 1 | epl-lee-ast-2025-11-23 | Will Leeds United win on 2025-11-23? | 79,414,930 | 79,414,930 |
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