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What is the chance that the FDA will approve 107 drugs in 2035? Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-produc... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that US house prices will be 2.30 times higher in December 2030? House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that biological lifespans will increase faster than 0.75 years per year by 2069? Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the FDA will approve 107 drugs in 2035? Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-produc... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that alien technosignatures will be detected for the first time before 9999 years? [Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial i... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 3.006 percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030? From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),
> Gross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, un... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first clone of a prominent historical figure will be born by 2069? From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet),
> Despite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence tha... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.31k e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first clone of a prominent historical figure will be born by 2069? From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet),
> Despite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence tha... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first clone of a prominent historical figure will be born by 2069? From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet),
> Despite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence tha... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.31k e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 will be 11.9 by Dec 14, 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 will be 11.9 by Dec 14, 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 will be 11.9 by Dec 14, 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Image Classification Performance Index will be 210 on 2026-12-14? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.31k e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers will be 33.3 by November 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will have 16.0 share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance in the TOP500 list on June 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Image Classification Performance Index will be 210 on 2026-12-14? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers will be 33.3 by November 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Image Classification Performance Index will be 210 on 2026-12-14? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best available GPU on the following dates (Dec-2026) will have an average top price performance of 246 G3D Mark /$? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best available GPU on the following dates (Dec-2026) will have an average top price performance of 246 G3D Mark /$? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers will be 33.3 by November 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will have 16.0 share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance in the TOP500 list on June 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will have 16.0 share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance in the TOP500 list on June 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best available GPU on the following dates (Dec-2026) will have an average top price performance of 246 G3D Mark /$? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalization will be 4.63 trillion USD at market close on December 14, 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalization will be 4.63 trillion USD at market close on December 14, 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that software and information services will contribute 3.92% to US GDP in Q4 of 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalization will be 4.63 trillion USD at market close on December 14, 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that software and information services will contribute 3.92% to US GDP in Q4 of 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products, will be 414? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that software and information services will contribute 3.92% to US GDP in Q4 of 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the unemployment rate for German law degree holders will be 2.53% in 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products, will be 414? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 37.5k Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products, will be 414? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the unemployment rate for German law degree holders will be 2.53% in 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 37.5k Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that more than 20,000 e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that more than 20,000 e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the unemployment rate for German law degree holders will be 2.53% in 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate will exceed 6% by 2047? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that more than 20,000 e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate will exceed 6% by 2047? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 37.5k Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first course on wild animal welfare will not be taught at a top university before December 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate will exceed 6% by 2047? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.872 fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it on January 1, 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first course on wild animal welfare will not be taught at a top university before December 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1 bitcoin will be worth $1,000,000 or more by 2020 USD, according to the condition "Not ≤ 2100"? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Huang will be opened by 2073? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Huang will be opened by 2073? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1 bitcoin will be worth $1,000,000 or more by 2020 USD, according to the condition "Not ≤ 2100"? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Huang will be opened by 2073? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will achieve racial unemployment parity between black and white people according to BLS by not ≤ 2060? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the median age of an employed person in the US will be 42.47 in 2040? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the median age of an employed person in the US will be 42.47 in 2040? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What percentage of the US federal budget will be allocated to Medicare in 2024? | 0.16 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will achieve racial unemployment parity between black and white people according to BLS by not ≤ 2060? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.872 fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it on January 1, 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first course on wild animal welfare will not be taught at a top university before December 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1 bitcoin will be worth $1,000,000 or more by 2020 USD, according to the condition "Not ≤ 2100"? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the median age of an employed person in the US will be 42.47 in 2040? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.872 fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it on January 1, 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will achieve racial unemployment parity between black and white people according to BLS by not ≤ 2060? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 16.5k nuclear weapons on January 1, 2075? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What percentage of the US federal budget will be allocated to Medicare in 2024? | 0.16 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 16.5k nuclear weapons on January 1, 2075? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that autonomous flying vehicles will be commercially available by 2038? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be at least one billion Americans by Not ≤ 2120? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 31.4% of EA dollars will go to global poverty in 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 31.2% of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020 in 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that autonomous flying vehicles will be commercially available by 2038? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score will be 79.7 for 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 31.2% of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020 in 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be at least one billion Americans by Not ≤ 2120? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be at least one billion Americans by Not ≤ 2120? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 31.4% of EA dollars will go to global poverty in 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 16.5k nuclear weapons on January 1, 2075? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 31.2% of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020 in 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that autonomous flying vehicles will be commercially available by 2038? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score will be 79.7 for 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best available retinal prosthesis will be 1.58 times better in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score will be 79.7 for 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best available retinal prosthesis will be 1.58 times better in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best available retinal prosthesis will be 1.58 times better in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 31.4% of EA dollars will go to global poverty in 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?
Keyword: 89.0M
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that GiveWell will move 89.0M in 2031? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?
Keyword: 89.0M
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that GiveWell will move 89.0M in 2031? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be by the year 122? The [United States of America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) is a North American country that was established on July 4, 1776. The first [President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_Uni... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be by the year 122? The [United States of America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) is a North American country that was established on July 4, 1776. The first [President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_Uni... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 3.60 US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be by the year 122? The [United States of America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) is a North American country that was established on July 4, 1776. The first [President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_Uni... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 3.60 US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next interstellar object will be discovered by Jan 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next interstellar object will be discovered by Jan 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next interstellar object will be discovered by Jan 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 3.60 US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
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