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What is the chance that Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of President of Russia by 2029? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/954/when-will-vladimir-putin-leave-power-in-russia/) [closed]
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[Vladimir Vladimirovich Puti... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 25.6 states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045? For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.w... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a universal flu vaccine will be available by 2036? Although there is a vaccine against influenza, the influenza virus' rapid mutation rate means that the vaccine must be [reformulated each year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Vaccination) in order to protect against the strains that are... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of President of Russia by 2029? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/954/when-will-vladimir-putin-leave-power-in-russia/) [closed]
----
[Vladimir Vladimirovich Puti... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 45.9k people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029? On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global fertility rate will be 2.12 in 2050? The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-def... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of President of Russia by 2029? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/954/when-will-vladimir-putin-leave-power-in-russia/) [closed]
----
[Vladimir Vladimirovich Puti... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global fertility rate will be 2.12 in 2050? The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-def... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that virtual reality headset sales will exceed 10 million units per year by Jul 2024? After decades of being relegated to niche industries and a [failed first wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#1970%E2%80%931990) in the 1990s, virtual reality has once again emerged in the last decade... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 9.87 percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
- [When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-flee... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Tesla's market capitalization will be greater than $2.5 billion on January 1, 2030? In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combine... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 45.9k people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029? On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 25.6 states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045? For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.w... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that virtual reality headset sales will exceed 10 million units per year by Jul 2024? After decades of being relegated to niche industries and a [failed first wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#1970%E2%80%931990) in the 1990s, virtual reality has once again emerged in the last decade... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global fertility rate will be 2.12 in 2050? The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-def... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that virtual reality headset sales will exceed 10 million units per year by Jul 2024? After decades of being relegated to niche industries and a [failed first wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#1970%E2%80%931990) in the 1990s, virtual reality has once again emerged in the last decade... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 45.9k people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029? On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium will be published by 2034? Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 2.140 percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200? As of 2019, over 400 people have been cryopreserved ([175 at Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/AboutAlcor/membershipstats.html), [183 at the Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/), [71 at Krio... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium will be published by 2034? Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium will be published by 2034? Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
In the 2024 US presidential election, what is the chance that 50.27% of states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors? The president of the United States is chosen by the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Summary), a group of 538 electors drawn from th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI will be launched by Aug 2025? It is widely agreed amongst experts that Artificial General Intelligence — an AI that can flexibly and effectively perform a very wide range of cognitive tasks at least as well as humans — would represent a dramatic advance in p... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI will be launched by Aug 2025? It is widely agreed amongst experts that Artificial General Intelligence — an AI that can flexibly and effectively perform a very wide range of cognitive tasks at least as well as humans — would represent a dramatic advance in p... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Climeworks will sell 370 million dollars worth of negative emissions by 2030? >Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, wi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Climeworks will sell 370 million dollars worth of negative emissions by 2030? >Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, wi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
In the 2024 US presidential election, what is the chance that 50.27% of states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors? The president of the United States is chosen by the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Summary), a group of 538 electors drawn from th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Climeworks will sell 370 million dollars worth of negative emissions by 2030? >Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, wi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Project Vesta will sell 63.5 million tons of negative emissions by 2030? >Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
In the 2024 US presidential election, what is the chance that 50.27% of states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors? The president of the United States is chosen by the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Summary), a group of 538 electors drawn from th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI will be launched by Aug 2025? It is widely agreed amongst experts that Artificial General Intelligence — an AI that can flexibly and effectively perform a very wide range of cognitive tasks at least as well as humans — would represent a dramatic advance in p... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.98% of the world population will be in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty in 2030? In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars.
In recent deca... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Project Vesta will sell 63.5 million tons of negative emissions by 2030? >Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.98% of the world population will be in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty in 2030? In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars.
In recent deca... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.98% of the world population will be in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty in 2030? In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars.
In recent deca... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that CarbonCure will sell carbon storage at a cost of 62.9% in 2030? >Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Project Vesta will sell 63.5 million tons of negative emissions by 2030? >Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that CarbonCure will sell carbon storage at a cost of 62.9% in 2030? >Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that CarbonCure will sell carbon storage at a cost of 62.9% in 2030? >Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Charm Industrial will sell carbon storage for 527 in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that /r/themotte will not be banned from Reddit by Dec 2025? On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Charm Industrial will sell carbon storage for 527 in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a computer program will be listed as an author in a journal article in the Annals of Mathematics by 2029? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a computer program will be listed as an author in a journal article in the Annals of Mathematics by 2029? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a computer program will be listed as an author in a journal article in the Annals of Mathematics by 2029? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China's human development index (HDI) score will be 0.906 in 2030? [The Human Development Index (HDI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (long... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Charm Industrial will sell carbon storage for 527 in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US police-to-prison spending ratio will be 1.83 in 2030? Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/). This is much more relatively on prisons than in the ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that /r/themotte will not be banned from Reddit by Dec 2025? On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that /r/themotte will not be banned from Reddit by Dec 2025? On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China's human development index (HDI) score will be 0.906 in 2030? [The Human Development Index (HDI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (long... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China's human development index (HDI) score will be 0.906 in 2030? [The Human Development Index (HDI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (long... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6.23 of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030? [80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Ce... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US police-to-prison spending ratio will be 1.83 in 2030? Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/). This is much more relatively on prisons than in the ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US police-to-prison spending ratio will be 1.83 in 2030? Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/). This is much more relatively on prisons than in the ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6.23 of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030? [80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Ce... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6.23 of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030? [80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Ce... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump in July 2024 will be 50% of the search interest in November 2016? [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that Charity Entrepreneurship will contribute to the creation of a new GiveWell top charity by 2027? [Charity Entrepreneurship](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/about-us.html) is an organisation which provides training and support to individuals looking to start effective charities. Thirt... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump in July 2024 will be 50% of the search interest in November 2016? [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX will be worth 642 billion nominal USD in 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [What will SpaceX be worth on January 1, 2030, in billions of nominal USD?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/) *[10B - 125B range]*
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[Space Exploration Techno... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump in July 2024 will be 50% of the search interest in November 2016? [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX will be worth 642 billion nominal USD in 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [What will SpaceX be worth on January 1, 2030, in billions of nominal USD?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/) *[10B - 125B range]*
----
[Space Exploration Techno... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that Charity Entrepreneurship will contribute to the creation of a new GiveWell top charity by 2027? [Charity Entrepreneurship](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/about-us.html) is an organisation which provides training and support to individuals looking to start effective charities. Thirt... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Woke index in US elite media will top by Dec 2027? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Woke index in US elite media will top by Dec 2027? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will emit 3.45 billion tons of CO₂ in 2035? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX will be worth 642 billion nominal USD in 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [What will SpaceX be worth on January 1, 2030, in billions of nominal USD?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/) *[10B - 125B range]*
----
[Space Exploration Techno... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that Charity Entrepreneurship will contribute to the creation of a new GiveWell top charity by 2027? [Charity Entrepreneurship](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/about-us.html) is an organisation which provides training and support to individuals looking to start effective charities. Thirt... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Woke index in US elite media will top by Dec 2027? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records will be 7.104k? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first baby will be born away from Earth by 2060? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/)
* [When will the first human be born alive... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will emit 3.45 billion tons of CO₂ in 2035? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first baby will be born away from Earth by 2060? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/)
* [When will the first human be born alive... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will emit 3.45 billion tons of CO₂ in 2035? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records will be 7.104k? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that One Piece will end by Jan 2029? It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first baby will be born away from Earth by 2060? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/)
* [When will the first human be born alive... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records will be 7.104k? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that One Piece will end by Jan 2029? It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that One Piece will end by Jan 2029? It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise by Aug 2026? Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level m... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first crew sent to Mars will be 16.6 meters tall? [A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US FDA will not grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers by 2049? Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brai... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US FDA will not grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers by 2049? Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brai... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US FDA will not grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers by 2049? Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brai... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that American Metaculus users will face an emigration crisis before Dec 25, 2030? The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that American Metaculus users will face an emigration crisis before Dec 25, 2030? The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that self-driving taxis will be available to Metaculus users by Jul 2029? A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car ([SAE automation level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#SAE_classification) 4 or ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that self-driving taxis will be available to Metaculus users by Jul 2029? A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car ([SAE automation level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#SAE_classification) 4 or ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise by Aug 2026? Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level m... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first crew sent to Mars will be 16.6 meters tall? [A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first crew sent to Mars will be 16.6 meters tall? [A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler will not be published before 2150? [Winifred Wagner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winifred_Wagner), the daughter-in-law of composer Richard Wagner, was good friends with Adolph Hitler. It is possible she provided him with the paper he used to ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that self-driving taxis will be available to Metaculus users by Aug 2025? A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car ([SAE automation level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#SAE_classification) 4 or ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that self-driving taxis will be available to Metaculus users by Sep 2026? A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car ([SAE automation level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#SAE_classification) 4 or ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that self-driving taxis will be available to Metaculus users by Aug 2025? A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car ([SAE automation level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#SAE_classification) 4 or ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that self-driving taxis will be available to Metaculus users by Sep 2026? A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car ([SAE automation level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#SAE_classification) 4 or ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that self-driving taxis will be available to Metaculus users by Aug 2025? A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car ([SAE automation level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#SAE_classification) 4 or ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Sentinelese will cease to be an uncontacted people by 2046? The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outsi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
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