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What is the chance that self-driving taxis will be available to Metaculus users by Sep 2026? A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car ([SAE automation level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#SAE_classification) 4 or ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Sentinelese will cease to be an uncontacted people by 2046? The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outsi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler will not be published before 2150? [Winifred Wagner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winifred_Wagner), the daughter-in-law of composer Richard Wagner, was good friends with Adolph Hitler. It is possible she provided him with the paper he used to ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler will not be published before 2150? [Winifred Wagner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winifred_Wagner), the daughter-in-law of composer Richard Wagner, was good friends with Adolph Hitler. It is possible she provided him with the paper he used to ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies will be greater than 2k billion USD at the start of 2025? [Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the t... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies will be greater than 2k billion USD at the start of 2025? [Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the t... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise by Aug 2026? Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level m... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Sentinelese will cease to be an uncontacted people by 2046? The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outsi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that American Metaculus users will face an emigration crisis before Dec 25, 2030? The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that one would be revived before 2200 if they were preserved by Alcor or the Cryonics Institute while both were active, given a likelihood ratio of 0.105? As of the time of writing this question, the two major providers of cryopreservation in the US are [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), with [181 pati... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that self-driving taxis will be available to Metaculus users by Jul 2029? A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car ([SAE automation level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#SAE_classification) 4 or ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies will be greater than 2k billion USD at the start of 2025? [Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the t... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min by Jan 2025? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
- [When will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma's revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?](https://www.metaculus.c... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min by Jan 2025? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
- [When will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma's revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?](https://www.metaculus.c... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that one would be revived before 2200 if they were preserved by Alcor or the Cryonics Institute while both were active, given a likelihood ratio of 0.105? As of the time of writing this question, the two major providers of cryopreservation in the US are [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), with [181 pati... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the GDP of Mars will exceed that of Earth by the time it does not exceed 3000? When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the "New world" had a fraction of the [population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history#/media/File:WorldPopulation.png) and [GDP](https://commons.wikimedia.org/w... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the GDP of Mars will exceed that of Earth by the time it does not exceed 3000? When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the "New world" had a fraction of the [population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history#/media/File:WorldPopulation.png) and [GDP](https://commons.wikimedia.org/w... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min by Jan 2025? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
- [When will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma's revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?](https://www.metaculus.c... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the GDP of Mars will exceed that of Earth by the time it does not exceed 3000? When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the "New world" had a fraction of the [population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history#/media/File:WorldPopulation.png) and [GDP](https://commons.wikimedia.org/w... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 100 babies will be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence by 2025? With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic s... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that one would be revived before 2200 if they were preserved by Alcor or the Cryonics Institute while both were active, given a likelihood ratio of 0.105? As of the time of writing this question, the two major providers of cryopreservation in the US are [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), with [181 pati... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 100 babies will be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence by 2025? With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic s... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 100 babies will be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence by 2025? With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic s... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 9.762 seats on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030? Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),
> I don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 9.762 seats on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030? Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),
> I don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 44.2% of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge? Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 44.2% of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge? Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Uber will electrify 50% of its fleet by 2032? Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 glob... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Lyft will electrify 80% of its fleet by Jan 2029? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
- [When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/)
----
In June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.co... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Uber will electrify 50% of its fleet by 2032? Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 glob... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Lyft will electrify 80% of its fleet by Jan 2029? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
- [When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/)
----
In June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.co... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that another state will provide 75% of the number of public charging outlets available in California by 2033? California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations.
These stations are essential infrastru... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Lyft will electrify 80% of its fleet by Jan 2029? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
- [When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/)
----
In June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.co... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that another state will provide 75% of the number of public charging outlets available in California by 2033? California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations.
These stations are essential infrastru... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.74 species of pangolin will survive to 2050? [Pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin) are an order of mammals found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. There are eight currently extant species of pangolin. One the [IUCN red list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUCN_Red_List), three of th... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 44.2% of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge? Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 9.762 seats on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030? Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),
> I don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.74 species of pangolin will survive to 2050? [Pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin) are an order of mammals found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. There are eight currently extant species of pangolin. One the [IUCN red list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUCN_Red_List), three of th... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Uber will electrify 50% of its fleet by 2032? Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 glob... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.74 species of pangolin will survive to 2050? [Pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin) are an order of mammals found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. There are eight currently extant species of pangolin. One the [IUCN red list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUCN_Red_List), three of th... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that another state will provide 75% of the number of public charging outlets available in California by 2033? California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations.
These stations are essential infrastru... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the price of neuropreservation will be $160,000 at Alcor in 2030? From [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/library/case-for-neuropreservation/),
> Neuropreservation, quite simply, is low temperature preservation of the brain of a terminal patient. All efforts in neuropreservation are devoted to the s... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States Government Spending to GDP will be 43.3% in 2024? The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent. This questio... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the price of neuropreservation will be $160,000 at Alcor in 2030? From [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/library/case-for-neuropreservation/),
> Neuropreservation, quite simply, is low temperature preservation of the brain of a terminal patient. All efforts in neuropreservation are devoted to the s... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US federal minimum wage will be raised by Dec 2026? The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 p... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States Government Spending to GDP will be 43.3% in 2024? The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent. This questio... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US federal minimum wage will be raised by Dec 2026? The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 p... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that humans will be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System by 2050? #Context
Water has been called [the oil of space](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4), and for good reason. [Nature reports](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4) that:
... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US federal minimum wage will be raised by Dec 2026? The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 p... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that humans will be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System by 2050? #Context
Water has been called [the oil of space](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4), and for good reason. [Nature reports](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4) that:
... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that humans will be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System by 2050? #Context
Water has been called [the oil of space](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4), and for good reason. [Nature reports](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4) that:
... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1% of humanity's GWP will be produced off-Earth by 2084? Since the launch of our [first satellite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1) into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed th... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the price of neuropreservation will be $160,000 at Alcor in 2030? From [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/library/case-for-neuropreservation/),
> Neuropreservation, quite simply, is low temperature preservation of the brain of a terminal patient. All efforts in neuropreservation are devoted to the s... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1% of humanity's GWP will be produced off-Earth by 2084? Since the launch of our [first satellite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1) into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed th... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Donald Trump's net worth will be less than $2 in 2024? Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.
***What will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?***
This question ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1% of humanity's GWP will be produced off-Earth by 2084? Since the launch of our [first satellite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1) into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed th... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States Government Spending to GDP will be 43.3% in 2024? The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent. This questio... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Donald Trump's net worth will be less than $2 in 2024? Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.
***What will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?***
This question ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key by 2033? Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.
One task that quantum computers can do better than regular compu... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key by 2033? Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.
One task that quantum computers can do better than regular compu... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Donald Trump's net worth will be less than $2 in 2024? Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.
***What will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?***
This question ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key by 2033? Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.
One task that quantum computers can do better than regular compu... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that US EV sales will equal or exceed 75% of the number of US ICE sales within a year by Jan 2026? US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-i... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that more than 140,000 new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025? *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [Electric Bus Registrations in Europe 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/)
----
Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that Graphcore will become a publicly traded company by Jul 2024? [Graphcore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphcore) is a semiconductor company that develops accelerators for AI and machine learning.
In a [2019 interview by Wired](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/graphcore-ai-intelligence-proce... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that more than 140,000 new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025? *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [Electric Bus Registrations in Europe 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/)
----
Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that US EV sales will equal or exceed 75% of the number of US ICE sales within a year by Jan 2026? US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-i... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 11.8% of people will believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2031? Every year in May, Gallup asks people about the moral acceptability of various issues. You can see their most recent report [here](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1681/moral-issues.aspx). One of the issues they ask about is "Buying an... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?
Keyword: 2.08
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that carbon dioxide emissions from ground transportation globally will change by 75% between 2020 and 2025? Carbon emissions from motor transp... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that more than 140,000 new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025? *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [Electric Bus Registrations in Europe 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/)
----
Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 11.8% of people will believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2031? Every year in May, Gallup asks people about the moral acceptability of various issues. You can see their most recent report [here](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1681/moral-issues.aspx). One of the issues they ask about is "Buying an... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that Graphcore will become a publicly traded company by Jul 2024? [Graphcore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphcore) is a semiconductor company that develops accelerators for AI and machine learning.
In a [2019 interview by Wired](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/graphcore-ai-intelligence-proce... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that US EV sales will equal or exceed 75% of the number of US ICE sales within a year by Jan 2026? US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-i... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?
Keyword: 2.08
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that carbon dioxide emissions from ground transportation globally will change by 75% between 2020 and 2025? Carbon emissions from motor transp... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 11.8% of people will believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2031? Every year in May, Gallup asks people about the moral acceptability of various issues. You can see their most recent report [here](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1681/moral-issues.aspx). One of the issues they ask about is "Buying an... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the China-to-USA GDP ratio will be 1.14 in 2050? *Related questions on Metaculus:*
- [When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next Scottish independence referendum will be held in 2034? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/)
----
In 2014, a refe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next Scottish independence referendum will be held in 2034? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/)
----
In 2014, a refe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that Graphcore will become a publicly traded company by Jul 2024? [Graphcore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphcore) is a semiconductor company that develops accelerators for AI and machine learning.
In a [2019 interview by Wired](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/graphcore-ai-intelligence-proce... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?
Keyword: 2.08
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that carbon dioxide emissions from ground transportation globally will change by 75% between 2020 and 2025? Carbon emissions from motor transp... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the China-to-USA GDP ratio will be 1.14 in 2050? *Related questions on Metaculus:*
- [When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the China-to-USA GDP ratio will be 1.14 in 2050? *Related questions on Metaculus:*
- [When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that most members of the House of Lords will be directly democratically elected by Nov 2036? [The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)
> Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next Scottish independence referendum will be held in 2034? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/)
----
In 2014, a refe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that most members of the House of Lords will be directly democratically elected by Nov 2036? [The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)
> Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Monaco will be 224.1 square kilometers larger in 2035? [The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the s... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Monaco will be 224.1 square kilometers larger in 2035? [The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the s... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Monaco will be 224.1 square kilometers larger in 2035? [The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the s... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that most members of the House of Lords will be directly democratically elected by Nov 2036? [The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)
> Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the FDA will approve 107 drugs in 2035? Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-produc... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that alien technosignatures will be detected for the first time before 9999 years? [Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial i... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that biological lifespans will increase faster than 0.75 years per year by 2069? Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate will exceed 10% by 2088? The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. This question will resolve as January 1 of the first year T, such that:
\[\bigg(\frac{GWP_T}{GWP_{T-10}}\bigg)^{\fr... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate will exceed 10% by 2088? The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. This question will resolve as January 1 of the first year T, such that:
\[\bigg(\frac{GWP_T}{GWP_{T-10}}\bigg)^{\fr... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that biological lifespans will increase faster than 0.75 years per year by 2069? Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that alien technosignatures will be detected for the first time before 9999 years? [Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial i... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 3.006 percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030? From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),
> Gross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, un... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate will exceed 10% by 2088? The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. This question will resolve as January 1 of the first year T, such that:
\[\bigg(\frac{GWP_T}{GWP_{T-10}}\bigg)^{\fr... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that US house prices will be 2.30 times higher in December 2030? House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that US house prices will be 2.30 times higher in December 2030? House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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