text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
What is the chance that the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by January 2026 will be 6.41M? Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](http... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Alexander Lukashenko will leave power in Belarus by Mar 2027? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by January 2026 will be 6.41M? Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](http... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers will be 142 by June 2030? In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconducto... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet will be 93.81% on 2026-12-14, amongst models not trained on extra data? Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet will be 93.81% on 2026-12-14, amongst models not trained on extra data? Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers will be 142 by June 2030? In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconducto... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best available GPU on the following dates (Jan-2030) will have an average top price performance of 234 G3D Mark /$? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2030? (7.47) | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2030? (7.47) | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2030? (7.47) | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best available GPU on the following dates (Jan-2030) will have an average top price performance of 234 G3D Mark /$? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 50.7k Computer and Information Research Scientists in the United States in January 1, 2030? One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills.
In the Uni... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet will be 93.81% on 2026-12-14, amongst models not trained on extra data? Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 50.7k Computer and Information Research Scientists in the United States in January 1, 2030? One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills.
In the Uni... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best available GPU on the following dates (Jan-2030) will have an average top price performance of 234 G3D Mark /$? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation will be 3.36 trillion USD at market close on January 1, 2030? Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of December 5, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.
Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wik... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.97k e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period? [arXiv](arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, p... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that software and information services will contribute 50% of total GDP to US GDP in Q3 of 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation will be 3.36 trillion USD at market close on January 1, 2030? Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of December 5, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.
Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wik... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.97k e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period? [arXiv](arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, p... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that software and information services will contribute 50% of total GDP to US GDP in Q3 of 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation will be 3.36 trillion USD at market close on January 1, 2030? Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of December 5, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.
Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wik... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.97k e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period? [arXiv](arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, p... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that software and information services will contribute 50% of total GDP to US GDP in Q3 of 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a country will reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1, by 2040? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 21.6k e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 21.6k e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will officially cease to be a socialist state by 2189? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a country will reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1, by 2040? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will officially cease to be a socialist state by 2189? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will officially cease to be a socialist state by 2189? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a country will reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1, by 2040? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 21.6k e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Tesla will report producing 2.56M vehicles in 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that less than 1 non-Tesla vehicles will be licensed with Tesla software by 2030? Tesla Motors [has indicated it will license its software to other auto makers](https://www.thedrive.com/news/38973/elon-musk-says-tesla-has-spoken-with-other-car-companies-about-licensing-autopilot).
[According to Cat... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Tesla will report producing 2.56M vehicles in 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Tesla will report producing 2.56M vehicles in 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1 bitcoin will reach a value of 372k by 2030? The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade? The price of one bitcoin will be finally determine... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the estimated population of blue whales in 2050, given that there are currently 20.2k blue whales? [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale):
>The blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 mete... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that less than 1 non-Tesla vehicles will be licensed with Tesla software by 2030? Tesla Motors [has indicated it will license its software to other auto makers](https://www.thedrive.com/news/38973/elon-musk-says-tesla-has-spoken-with-other-car-companies-about-licensing-autopilot).
[According to Cat... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that less than 1 non-Tesla vehicles will be licensed with Tesla software by 2030? Tesla Motors [has indicated it will license its software to other auto makers](https://www.thedrive.com/news/38973/elon-musk-says-tesla-has-spoken-with-other-car-companies-about-licensing-autopilot).
[According to Cat... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1 bitcoin will reach a value of 372k by 2030? The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade? The price of one bitcoin will be finally determine... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the estimated population of blue whales in 2050, given that there are currently 20.2k blue whales? [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale):
>The blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 mete... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1 bitcoin will reach a value of 372k by 2030? The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade? The price of one bitcoin will be finally determine... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what is the chance that the average employment-to-population ratio will be 60.14 in 2025? In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the estimated population of blue whales in 2050, given that there are currently 20.2k blue whales? [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale):
>The blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 mete... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what is the chance that the average employment-to-population ratio will be 60.14 in 2025? In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what is the chance that the average employment-to-population ratio will be 60.14 in 2025? In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?
Keyword: 8.45×1015
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that humanity's descendants will meet grabby aliens in 8.45×1015 years? Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby alien... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that global direct primary energy consumption (in terawatt-hours) will be 244k in 2100? [Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase o... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what is the chance that the average employment-to-population ratio will be 58.76 in 2025? In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [pric... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that global direct primary energy consumption (in terawatt-hours) will be 244k in 2100? [Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase o... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that global direct primary energy consumption (in terawatt-hours) will be 244k in 2100? [Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase o... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what is the chance that the average employment-to-population ratio will be 58.76 in 2025? In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [pric... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025? What is the chance that 0.038 correlation will be observed? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Terence Mauri will get 7.48 out of 100 predictions about "robotic judges" in 2070 correct? | 0.07 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an algorithm will not be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video by Dec 2025? The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality tra... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Terence Mauri will get 7.48 out of 100 predictions about "robotic judges" in 2070 correct? | 0.07 | Metaculus |
If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what is the chance that the average employment-to-population ratio will be 58.76 in 2025? In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [pric... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an algorithm will not be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video by Dec 2025? The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality tra... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025? What is the chance that 0.038 correlation will be observed? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first human mission to Venus will take place by 2070? [Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's "sister planet" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025? What is the chance that 0.038 correlation will be observed? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an algorithm will not be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video by Dec 2025? The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality tra... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?
Keyword: 8.45×1015
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that humanity's descendants will meet grabby aliens in 8.45×1015 years? Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby alien... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 734-day uninterrupted stay in deep space before 2051? *Related questions on Metaculus:*
- [When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/)
- [How big will the first crew sent t... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first human mission to Venus will take place by 2070? [Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's "sister planet" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 734-day uninterrupted stay in deep space before 2051? *Related questions on Metaculus:*
- [When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/)
- [How big will the first crew sent t... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first human mission to Venus will take place by 2070? [Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's "sister planet" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first O'Neill cylinder variant will be completed by 2061? Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first O'Neill cylinder variant will be completed by 2061? Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first O'Neill cylinder variant will be completed by 2061? Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 734-day uninterrupted stay in deep space before 2051? *Related questions on Metaculus:*
- [When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/)
- [How big will the first crew sent t... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad by Oct 2029? The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 pr... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 5.57k billionaires (in USD) in 2030? The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.
***How many billiona... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the prize pool of an esport tournament will be greater than any other sport tournament in the year 2067? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the prize pool of an esport tournament will be greater than any other sport tournament in the year 2067? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad by Oct 2029? The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 pr... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Gini coefficient for income in India will be 40.8 in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Gini coefficient for income in India will be 40.8 in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first zetta-FLOPS performer will appear by 2041? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad by Oct 2029? The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 pr... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first zetta-FLOPS performer will appear by 2041? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Gini coefficient for income in China will be 38.2 in 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Gini coefficient for income in India will be 40.8 in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 5.57k billionaires (in USD) in 2030? The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.
***How many billiona... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the prize pool of an esport tournament will be greater than any other sport tournament in the year 2067? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Gini coefficient for income in China will be 38.2 in 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Gini coefficient for income in China will be 38.2 in 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 5.57k billionaires (in USD) in 2030? The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.
***How many billiona... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first zetta-FLOPS performer will appear by 2041? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the most expensive NFT will be sold for 203M USD by 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an electric bike will win the AMA Supercross series championship by 2026? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an electric bike will win the AMA Supercross series championship by 2026? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an electric bike will win the AMA Supercross series championship by 2026? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first autonomous, road legal, human carrying motorcycle will be sold in the United States by 2045? Autonomous motorcycles have [already been built](https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T0284901EN/bmw-motorrad-presents-autonomous-driving-bmw-r-1200-gs-outlook-on-the-future-of-... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the most expensive NFT will be sold for 203M USD by 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a 1M-population country will adopt Universal Basic Income by 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first autonomous, road legal, human carrying motorcycle will be sold in the United States by 2045? Autonomous motorcycles have [already been built](https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T0284901EN/bmw-motorrad-presents-autonomous-driving-bmw-r-1200-gs-outlook-on-the-future-of-... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.