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What is the chance that Australia's net greenhouse gas emissions will be 89.9% in 2050? To have a good chance of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or below, the world needs to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by about 2050.
Reflecting this, many countries have set long-term targets for their greenh... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total capacity of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be 464 GW by 2030? Carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) describes a set of technologies in which carbon dioxide is captured and either used or stored long-term to stop it from co... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total capacity of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be 464 GW by 2030? Carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) describes a set of technologies in which carbon dioxide is captured and either used or stored long-term to stop it from co... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Australia's net greenhouse gas emissions will be 89.9% in 2050? To have a good chance of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or below, the world needs to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by about 2050.
Reflecting this, many countries have set long-term targets for their greenh... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Australia's net greenhouse gas emissions will be 89.9% in 2050? To have a good chance of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or below, the world needs to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by about 2050.
Reflecting this, many countries have set long-term targets for their greenh... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How far away is the nearest independent origination of life?
Keyword: 27.0B
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the nearest independent origination of life is 27.0B light years away? We know that life originated at least once, on Earth of order 4 billion years ago. Supposing we come across a... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the age-adjusted mortality rate in England and Wales will be 1.03k in 2051? The worldwide Coronavirus/COVID-19 crisis has got many people talking about comparing the risks across time and place. [John Appleby published a paper in the British Medical Journal in April 2021 discussing the various B... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 will not be born before 2999? As genetic and biological scientific understanding grows, it seems likely that at some point not far in the future, or perhaps already, people could have been born, or will be born, that will eventually beat the ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 will not be born before 2999? As genetic and biological scientific understanding grows, it seems likely that at some point not far in the future, or perhaps already, people could have been born, or will be born, that will eventually beat the ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will cost 12.3k to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075? In 2021, the Mars Perseverance Rover landed on Mars. With a weight of 1,025kg and a budget of $2.2 Billion dollars, this equates to a cost of $2.1M/kg.
The cost to deliver a payload to Mars is relevant to many question... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the population of Próspera will be less than 100 in 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the population of Próspera will be less than 100 in 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the population of Próspera will be less than 100 in 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the fraction of English books that mention "Deep Learning" will peak at 50% by 2031, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)? The Deep Learning Book, an excellent reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),
> This book is a... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will cost 12.3k to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075? In 2021, the Mars Perseverance Rover landed on Mars. With a weight of 1,025kg and a budget of $2.2 Billion dollars, this equates to a cost of $2.1M/kg.
The cost to deliver a payload to Mars is relevant to many question... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Keir Starmer will not cease to be Leader of the Labour Party by January 1, 2025? [The Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will cost 12.3k to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075? In 2021, the Mars Perseverance Rover landed on Mars. With a weight of 1,025kg and a budget of $2.2 Billion dollars, this equates to a cost of $2.1M/kg.
The cost to deliver a payload to Mars is relevant to many question... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Keir Starmer will not cease to be Leader of the Labour Party by January 1, 2025? [The Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How much will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? Google offers cloud storage services. Their cheapest option is archive storage, which currently goes for the rate of $0.0012 per GB per month in the Iowa (us-central1) region. You can find pricing information on [this page](https://cloud.goo... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Keir Starmer will not cease to be Leader of the Labour Party by January 1, 2025? [The Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 14.6 million people aged 65 and above will be employed in the US in 2030 (in thousands)? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
- [How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/)
----
The US Labor F... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Germany will have no coal-fired power plants in its electricity grid by 2035? *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission's goals?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/)
* [When will Australia h... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How much will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? Google offers cloud storage services. Their cheapest option is archive storage, which currently goes for the rate of $0.0012 per GB per month in the Iowa (us-central1) region. You can find pricing information on [this page](https://cloud.goo... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Germany will have no coal-fired power plants in its electricity grid by 2035? *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission's goals?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/)
* [When will Australia h... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 14.6 million people aged 65 and above will be employed in the US in 2030 (in thousands)? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
- [How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/)
----
The US Labor F... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that a West Balkan state will join the EU by January 2030? The European Union currently consists of 27 member states. The most recent state to join was Croatia on July 1, 2013, while Bulgaria and Romania joined on January 1, 2007 and 10 states joined on May 1, 2004. The UK left in 2020, reducing ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How much will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? Google offers cloud storage services. Their cheapest option is archive storage, which currently goes for the rate of $0.0012 per GB per month in the Iowa (us-central1) region. You can find pricing information on [this page](https://cloud.goo... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Germany will have no coal-fired power plants in its electricity grid by 2035? *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission's goals?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/)
* [When will Australia h... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that a West Balkan state will join the EU by January 2030? The European Union currently consists of 27 member states. The most recent state to join was Croatia on July 1, 2013, while Bulgaria and Romania joined on January 1, 2007 and 10 states joined on May 1, 2004. The UK left in 2020, reducing ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 14.6 million people aged 65 and above will be employed in the US in 2030 (in thousands)? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
- [How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/)
----
The US Labor F... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an HSV-1 vaccine will be approved by the FDA by 2036? From [Gene NG News](https://www.goodrx.com/blog/herpes-vaccine-progress/) in November 2020,
> A genetically edited form of a herpes simplex virus (HSV) has outperformed a leading vaccine candidate in a new preclinical study by researchers at... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 48.0 portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be US dollars in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF? The US dollar is in 2021 the dominant international reserve currency, which means many central banks hold large quanitities of US Dollars. This practice implies the US Fed can expand the supp... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an HSV-1 vaccine will be approved by the FDA by 2036? From [Gene NG News](https://www.goodrx.com/blog/herpes-vaccine-progress/) in November 2020,
> A genetically edited form of a herpes simplex virus (HSV) has outperformed a leading vaccine candidate in a new preclinical study by researchers at... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that a West Balkan state will join the EU by January 2030? The European Union currently consists of 27 member states. The most recent state to join was Croatia on July 1, 2013, while Bulgaria and Romania joined on January 1, 2007 and 10 states joined on May 1, 2004. The UK left in 2020, reducing ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that historical consensus will determine the first AGI came online 50 years earlier than when it became publicly known, given that 721 hours have passed since the first AGI was publicly known? Development of the first artificial general intelligence may share several parallels with the development of... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that historical consensus will determine the first AGI came online 50 years earlier than when it became publicly known, given that 721 hours have passed since the first AGI was publicly known? Development of the first artificial general intelligence may share several parallels with the development of... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 48.0 portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be US dollars in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF? The US dollar is in 2021 the dominant international reserve currency, which means many central banks hold large quanitities of US Dollars. This practice implies the US Fed can expand the supp... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ethereum will be able to do 1,000 transactions per second by Oct 2027? Currently, transaction prices on Ethereum limit what can be done. High transaction prices are largely driven by a maximum amount of transactions per second that can be processed which is over the month of May 2021 between 15 ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ethereum will be able to do 1,000 transactions per second by Oct 2027? Currently, transaction prices on Ethereum limit what can be done. High transaction prices are largely driven by a maximum amount of transactions per second that can be processed which is over the month of May 2021 between 15 ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an HSV-1 vaccine will be approved by the FDA by 2036? From [Gene NG News](https://www.goodrx.com/blog/herpes-vaccine-progress/) in November 2020,
> A genetically edited form of a herpes simplex virus (HSV) has outperformed a leading vaccine candidate in a new preclinical study by researchers at... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ethereum will be able to do 1,000 transactions per second by Oct 2027? Currently, transaction prices on Ethereum limit what can be done. High transaction prices are largely driven by a maximum amount of transactions per second that can be processed which is over the month of May 2021 between 15 ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least a zettabyte of digital information will be destroyed as the result of a single event by 2093? The amount of data in the world is not precisely known, but should be in the [multi-zettabyte range](https://martech.zone/ibm-big-data-marketing/).
The amount of data we consume and create sho... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least a zettabyte of digital information will be destroyed as the result of a single event by 2093? The amount of data in the world is not precisely known, but should be in the [multi-zettabyte range](https://martech.zone/ibm-big-data-marketing/).
The amount of data we consume and create sho... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 20.40 portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be Chinese Yuan in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF? The US dollar is in 2021 the dominant international reserve currency, which means many central banks hold large quanitities of US Dollars. This practice implies the US Fed can expand the s... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least a zettabyte of digital information will be destroyed as the result of a single event by 2093? The amount of data in the world is not precisely known, but should be in the [multi-zettabyte range](https://martech.zone/ibm-big-data-marketing/).
The amount of data we consume and create sho... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 2.95k people will take the EA survey in 2025? Each year since 2014, the [Effective Altruism Survey](https://www.rethinkprojects.org/easurvey) has collected information about the EA community by surveying community members. For example, the [2020](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ThdR8Fz... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 20.40 portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be Chinese Yuan in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF? The US dollar is in 2021 the dominant international reserve currency, which means many central banks hold large quanitities of US Dollars. This practice implies the US Fed can expand the s... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will be launched by 2027? The [Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nancy_Grace_Roman_Space_Telescope) (Roman Space Telescope, previously known as WFIRST) is an infrared space telescope currently under development by NASA. The te... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will be launched by 2027? The [Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nancy_Grace_Roman_Space_Telescope) (Roman Space Telescope, previously known as WFIRST) is an infrared space telescope currently under development by NASA. The te... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that historical consensus will determine the first AGI came online 50 years earlier than when it became publicly known, given that 721 hours have passed since the first AGI was publicly known? Development of the first artificial general intelligence may share several parallels with the development of... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 48.0 portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be US dollars in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF? The US dollar is in 2021 the dominant international reserve currency, which means many central banks hold large quanitities of US Dollars. This practice implies the US Fed can expand the supp... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will be launched by 2027? The [Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nancy_Grace_Roman_Space_Telescope) (Roman Space Telescope, previously known as WFIRST) is an infrared space telescope currently under development by NASA. The te... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 20.40 portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be Chinese Yuan in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF? The US dollar is in 2021 the dominant international reserve currency, which means many central banks hold large quanitities of US Dollars. This practice implies the US Fed can expand the s... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 2.05k people will take the EA survey in 2030? Each year since 2014, the [Effective Altruism Survey](https://www.rethinkprojects.org/easurvey) has collected information about the EA community by surveying community members. For example, the [2020](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ThdR8Fz... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 2.05k people will take the EA survey in 2030? Each year since 2014, the [Effective Altruism Survey](https://www.rethinkprojects.org/easurvey) has collected information about the EA community by surveying community members. For example, the [2020](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ThdR8Fz... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 2.05k people will take the EA survey in 2030? Each year since 2014, the [Effective Altruism Survey](https://www.rethinkprojects.org/easurvey) has collected information about the EA community by surveying community members. For example, the [2020](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ThdR8Fz... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 2.95k people will take the EA survey in 2025? Each year since 2014, the [Effective Altruism Survey](https://www.rethinkprojects.org/easurvey) has collected information about the EA community by surveying community members. For example, the [2020](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ThdR8Fz... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 2.95k people will take the EA survey in 2025? Each year since 2014, the [Effective Altruism Survey](https://www.rethinkprojects.org/easurvey) has collected information about the EA community by surveying community members. For example, the [2020](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ThdR8Fz... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the number of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in the US will have declined by 75% relative to 2020 levels by Not ≤ 2070? A [concentrated animal feeding operation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_animal_feeding_operation) (CAFO) is an intensive animal feeding operation in which ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 367M in 2025? [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the [Effective Altruism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism) movement. Most of their money currently com... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 62.1 fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040? Our World In Data claims that in 2015, 55.8% of people [lived in a democracy](https://ourworldindata.org/democracy). From OWID:
>During the 19th century, most of the world's population lived in colonial empires, autocrac... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 1.92B dollars in 2030? [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the [Effective Altruism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism) movement. Most of their money curr... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 367M in 2025? [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the [Effective Altruism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism) movement. Most of their money currently com... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the number of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in the US will have declined by 75% relative to 2020 levels by Not ≤ 2070? A [concentrated animal feeding operation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_animal_feeding_operation) (CAFO) is an intensive animal feeding operation in which ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 367M in 2025? [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the [Effective Altruism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism) movement. Most of their money currently com... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 62.1 fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040? Our World In Data claims that in 2015, 55.8% of people [lived in a democracy](https://ourworldindata.org/democracy). From OWID:
>During the 19th century, most of the world's population lived in colonial empires, autocrac... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the number of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in the US will have declined by 75% relative to 2020 levels by Not ≤ 2070? A [concentrated animal feeding operation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_animal_feeding_operation) (CAFO) is an intensive animal feeding operation in which ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 1.92B dollars in 2030? [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the [Effective Altruism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism) movement. Most of their money curr... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Good Ventures will first donate 5% of Dustin Moskovitz's wealth in one year by 2027? [Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/) is a philanthropic foundation managing the giving of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna which is a major donor to effective altruist aligned causes. They donated $219 m... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 1.92B dollars in 2030? [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the [Effective Altruism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism) movement. Most of their money curr... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 62.1 fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040? Our World In Data claims that in 2015, 55.8% of people [lived in a democracy](https://ourworldindata.org/democracy). From OWID:
>During the 19th century, most of the world's population lived in colonial empires, autocrac... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Good Ventures will first donate 5% of Dustin Moskovitz's wealth in one year by 2027? [Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/) is a philanthropic foundation managing the giving of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna which is a major donor to effective altruist aligned causes. They donated $219 m... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What percentage of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035?
Keyword: 23.4
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 23.4% of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035? The United States [currently spends](health spending) about 17% of its GDP on health spending, which is up from about 6% in 1970... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What percentage of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035?
Keyword: 23.4
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 23.4% of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035? The United States [currently spends](health spending) about 17% of its GDP on health spending, which is up from about 6% in 1970... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Good Ventures will first donate 5% of Dustin Moskovitz's wealth in one year by 2027? [Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/) is a philanthropic foundation managing the giving of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna which is a major donor to effective altruist aligned causes. They donated $219 m... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the public will have knowledge of the highest pixel resolution, in centimeters, of a classified U.S. government optical satellite that was operational between 2011-2021 by 2061? Between 1959 and 1986, the U.S. launched their first optical spy satellites. The classified “Keyhole” satellites took... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the public will have knowledge of the highest pixel resolution, in centimeters, of a classified U.S. government optical satellite that was operational between 2011-2021 by 2061? Between 1959 and 1986, the U.S. launched their first optical spy satellites. The classified “Keyhole” satellites took... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) will be 23.4k in 2030? [The Republic of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peru) is a country in western South America. It is bordered in the north by Ecuador and Colombia, in the east by Brazil, in the southeast by Bolivia, in the south by Chile, and in the south a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the public will have knowledge of the highest pixel resolution, in centimeters, of a classified U.S. government optical satellite that was operational between 2011-2021 by 2061? Between 1959 and 1986, the U.S. launched their first optical spy satellites. The classified “Keyhole” satellites took... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest pixel resolution of commercially available optical satellite imagery, purchasable in a NATO country, in the year 2050 will be 19.5? In 1972, a joint NASA/USGS program launched the [Landsat-1 satellite program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landsat_program#Satellite_chronology). Durin... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest pixel resolution of commercially available optical satellite imagery, purchasable in a NATO country, in the year 2050 will be 19.5? In 1972, a joint NASA/USGS program launched the [Landsat-1 satellite program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landsat_program#Satellite_chronology). Durin... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What percentage of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035?
Keyword: 23.4
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 23.4% of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035? The United States [currently spends](health spending) about 17% of its GDP on health spending, which is up from about 6% in 1970... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that we will see the first live birth from human in vitro gametogenesis by 2032? **[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gametogenesis#In_vitro_gametogenesis), in vitro gametogenesis (IVG)**
>**is the technique of developing in vitro generated gametes, i.e., "the generation of eggs ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) will be 23.4k in 2030? [The Republic of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peru) is a country in western South America. It is bordered in the north by Ecuador and Colombia, in the east by Brazil, in the southeast by Bolivia, in the south by Chile, and in the south a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that we will see the first live birth from human in vitro gametogenesis by 2032? **[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gametogenesis#In_vitro_gametogenesis), in vitro gametogenesis (IVG)**
>**is the technique of developing in vitro generated gametes, i.e., "the generation of eggs ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Texas (ERCOT) will next experience rotating electricity outages by 2026? ERCOT, the electricity provider for over 90 percent of Texas [declared an Emergency Emergency Alert 3 (EEA 3)](https://twitter.com/ERCOT_ISO/status/1361215084010352644?s=19) and enacted rolling outages due to the extremely ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) will be 23.4k in 2030? [The Republic of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peru) is a country in western South America. It is bordered in the north by Ecuador and Colombia, in the east by Brazil, in the southeast by Bolivia, in the south by Chile, and in the south a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Texas (ERCOT) will next experience rotating electricity outages by 2026? ERCOT, the electricity provider for over 90 percent of Texas [declared an Emergency Emergency Alert 3 (EEA 3)](https://twitter.com/ERCOT_ISO/status/1361215084010352644?s=19) and enacted rolling outages due to the extremely ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Texas (ERCOT) will next experience rotating electricity outages by 2026? ERCOT, the electricity provider for over 90 percent of Texas [declared an Emergency Emergency Alert 3 (EEA 3)](https://twitter.com/ERCOT_ISO/status/1361215084010352644?s=19) and enacted rolling outages due to the extremely ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that we will see the first live birth from human in vitro gametogenesis by 2032? **[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gametogenesis#In_vitro_gametogenesis), in vitro gametogenesis (IVG)**
>**is the technique of developing in vitro generated gametes, i.e., "the generation of eggs ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest pixel resolution of commercially available optical satellite imagery, purchasable in a NATO country, in the year 2050 will be 19.5? In 1972, a joint NASA/USGS program launched the [Landsat-1 satellite program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landsat_program#Satellite_chronology). Durin... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try by Sep 2029? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try by Sep 2029? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try by Sep 2029? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a US-Russia war will start by 2050, given that it is predicted to start in 2037? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 50% of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026? The [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/) is a centre of discussion for the Effective Altruism community. Users posts and comments are subject to upvotes and downvotes, an... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 50% of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026? The [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/) is a centre of discussion for the Effective Altruism community. Users posts and comments are subject to upvotes and downvotes, an... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a US-Russia war will start by 2050, given that it is predicted to start in 2037? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.066 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? (Pakistan) [Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such a... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 50% of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026? The [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/) is a centre of discussion for the Effective Altruism community. Users posts and comments are subject to upvotes and downvotes, an... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
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