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What is the chance that the first autonomous, road legal, human carrying motorcycle will be sold in the United States by 2045? Autonomous motorcycles have [already been built](https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T0284901EN/bmw-motorrad-presents-autonomous-driving-bmw-r-1200-gs-outlook-on-the-future-of-... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a 1M-population country will adopt Universal Basic Income by 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the most expensive NFT will be sold for 203M USD by 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a 1M-population country will adopt Universal Basic Income by 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first openly furry person will be elected to a major US office by 2030? [Furries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furry_fandom) are a subculture interested in anthropomorphic animal characters with human personalities and characteristics. Furries form a diverse group, their common interests ha... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next man will win his 10th tennis slam title by 2033? Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. Winning multiple of these titles is a very impressive achievement.
As of writing there are [8 players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the regime change in a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070 will be by "the left" or by "the right"? | 0.72 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the regime change in a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070 will be by "the left" or by "the right"? | 0.72 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first openly furry person will be elected to a major US office by 2030? [Furries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furry_fandom) are a subculture interested in anthropomorphic animal characters with human personalities and characteristics. Furries form a diverse group, their common interests ha... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next man will win his 10th tennis slam title by 2033? Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. Winning multiple of these titles is a very impressive achievement.
As of writing there are [8 players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
In 2050, what is the chance that the all-time tennis slam singles record for men will be 24.4? Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. Winning multiple of these titles is a very impressive achievement.
Currently 2 players have won 20 Grand Slams (Roger Fede... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first openly furry person will be elected to a major US office by 2030? [Furries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furry_fandom) are a subculture interested in anthropomorphic animal characters with human personalities and characteristics. Furries form a diverse group, their common interests ha... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next man will win his 10th tennis slam title by 2033? Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. Winning multiple of these titles is a very impressive achievement.
As of writing there are [8 players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
In 2050, what is the chance that the all-time tennis slam singles record for men will be 24.4? Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. Winning multiple of these titles is a very impressive achievement.
Currently 2 players have won 20 Grand Slams (Roger Fede... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the last US casino will not close before December 2299? Casinos are currently legal in some (Indian reservations, Nevada) but not most parts of the US. If and when the last legal casino in the US closes, the question will resolve. Casinos on Indian reservations count for purposes of this questio... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the last US casino will not close before December 2299? Casinos are currently legal in some (Indian reservations, Nevada) but not most parts of the US. If and when the last legal casino in the US closes, the question will resolve. Casinos on Indian reservations count for purposes of this questio... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the regime change in a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070 will be by "the left" or by "the right"? | 0.72 | Metaculus |
In 2050, what is the chance that the all-time tennis slam singles record for men will be 24.4? Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. Winning multiple of these titles is a very impressive achievement.
Currently 2 players have won 20 Grand Slams (Roger Fede... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that credible sources will reveal the existence of something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger by Nov 2024? OpenAI's [DALL-E](https://openai.com/blog/dall-e/) was revealed on Jan 5 2021. It is a transformer trained on a multimodal dataset including text and images. It has 12 billion paramete... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX will launch humans around the Moon by Jul 2027? 24 humans, all professional astronauts in the US Apollo program, have entered Lunar space. SpaceX and Japanese Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa are currently planning the [dearMoon project](https://dearmoon.earth/) flight around the Moon for 2023... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the last US casino will not close before December 2299? Casinos are currently legal in some (Indian reservations, Nevada) but not most parts of the US. If and when the last legal casino in the US closes, the question will resolve. Casinos on Indian reservations count for purposes of this questio... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that credible sources will reveal the existence of something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger by Nov 2024? OpenAI's [DALL-E](https://openai.com/blog/dall-e/) was revealed on Jan 5 2021. It is a transformer trained on a multimodal dataset including text and images. It has 12 billion paramete... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX will launch humans around the Moon by Jul 2027? 24 humans, all professional astronauts in the US Apollo program, have entered Lunar space. SpaceX and Japanese Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa are currently planning the [dearMoon project](https://dearmoon.earth/) flight around the Moon for 2023... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that credible sources will reveal the existence of something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger by Nov 2024? OpenAI's [DALL-E](https://openai.com/blog/dall-e/) was revealed on Jan 5 2021. It is a transformer trained on a multimodal dataset including text and images. It has 12 billion paramete... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX will launch humans around the Moon by Jul 2027? 24 humans, all professional astronauts in the US Apollo program, have entered Lunar space. SpaceX and Japanese Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa are currently planning the [dearMoon project](https://dearmoon.earth/) flight around the Moon for 2023... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 34.2% of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization in 2025? Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 28.7% of EA dollars will go to meta charities in 2025? Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs by 2033? Organ transplants have existed as a medical treatment for decades; however, transplant recipients must take a multitude of immunosuppressant drugs on a daily basis for the rest of their li... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Gross World Product will exceed 1 quadrillion USD by 2053? The [gross world product (GWP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. Because imports and exports balance exactly when considering the whole world, th... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Gross World Product will exceed 1 quadrillion USD by 2053? The [gross world product (GWP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. Because imports and exports balance exactly when considering the whole world, th... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 28.7% of EA dollars will go to meta charities in 2025? Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs by 2033? Organ transplants have existed as a medical treatment for decades; however, transplant recipients must take a multitude of immunosuppressant drugs on a daily basis for the rest of their li... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs by 2033? Organ transplants have existed as a medical treatment for decades; however, transplant recipients must take a multitude of immunosuppressant drugs on a daily basis for the rest of their li... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 21.70 percentage of EA dollars will go to animal welfare in 2025? Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-dona... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 14.60 percentage of EA dollars will go to long term future charities in 2025? Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Gross World Product will exceed 1 quadrillion USD by 2053? The [gross world product (GWP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. Because imports and exports balance exactly when considering the whole world, th... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 14.60 percentage of EA dollars will go to long term future charities in 2025? Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a performer will win a 4th Oscar for Acting by 2027? The [Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences](oscars.org) annually gives awards (known as The Oscars) for the cinematic arts. Among these awards are the categories for Acting or Best Performances.
Katharine Hepburn holds the record of win... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 34.2% of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization in 2025? Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 21.70 percentage of EA dollars will go to animal welfare in 2025? Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-dona... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 21.70 percentage of EA dollars will go to animal welfare in 2025? Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-dona... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 14.60 percentage of EA dollars will go to long term future charities in 2025? Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a performer will win a 4th Oscar for Acting by 2027? The [Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences](oscars.org) annually gives awards (known as The Oscars) for the cinematic arts. Among these awards are the categories for Acting or Best Performances.
Katharine Hepburn holds the record of win... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a performer will win a 4th Oscar for Acting by 2027? The [Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences](oscars.org) annually gives awards (known as The Oscars) for the cinematic arts. Among these awards are the categories for Acting or Best Performances.
Katharine Hepburn holds the record of win... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 28.7% of EA dollars will go to meta charities in 2025? Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US MSRP of the lowest priced Tesla in 2030 will be 25.1k? This question will resolve to the lowest [MSRP](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_price) of a street legal, 4 wheel, enclosed vehicle,capable of carrying at least 2 people sold in the US by Tesla as a new, 2030 vehicle in terms of... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US MSRP of the lowest priced Tesla in 2030 will be 25.1k? This question will resolve to the lowest [MSRP](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_price) of a street legal, 4 wheel, enclosed vehicle,capable of carrying at least 2 people sold in the US by Tesla as a new, 2030 vehicle in terms of... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US MSRP of the lowest priced Tesla in 2030 will be 25.1k? This question will resolve to the lowest [MSRP](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_price) of a street legal, 4 wheel, enclosed vehicle,capable of carrying at least 2 people sold in the US by Tesla as a new, 2030 vehicle in terms of... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
According to the EA Survey, what is the chance that 34.2% of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization in 2025? Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Nate Silver will release his second book by Jul 28, 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the World's GDP at the end of 2025 will be 154 trillions of dollars? Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how deve... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the EU's GDP in 2025 will be 21.0 trillions of dollars? Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expec... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Nate Silver will release his second book by Jul 28, 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the EU's GDP in 2025 will be 21.0 trillions of dollars? Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expec... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the World's GDP at the end of 2025 will be 154 trillions of dollars? Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how deve... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the World's GDP at the end of 2025 will be 154 trillions of dollars? Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how deve... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the world real GDP will be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time, −0.953 years before (or after) AGI is developed? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the EU's GDP in 2025 will be 21.0 trillions of dollars? Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expec... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that insect feed will replace fishmeal for animal feed by 2031? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that insect feed will replace fishmeal for animal feed by 2031? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Nate Silver will release his second book by Jul 28, 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI program will be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts by 2034? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI program will be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts by 2034? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI program will be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts by 2034? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the world real GDP will be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time, −0.953 years before (or after) AGI is developed? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 176k refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first babies screened by Orchid Health will be born by Dec 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 176k refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the world real GDP will be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time, −0.953 years before (or after) AGI is developed? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that insect feed will replace fishmeal for animal feed by 2031? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 176k refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a biocomputer will not be able to perform an SHA-256 hash by 2060? A significant amount of energy, money, and energy is currently (as of 2021) being devoted to performing SHA-256 hashes, because these are the basic operation of bitcoin mining, so that the ability to perform energy efficient hash... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a biocomputer will not be able to perform an SHA-256 hash by 2060? A significant amount of energy, money, and energy is currently (as of 2021) being devoted to performing SHA-256 hashes, because these are the basic operation of bitcoin mining, so that the ability to perform energy efficient hash... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first babies screened by Orchid Health will be born by Dec 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a single facility will have the largest cultivated meat production capacity of 6.13k metric tons per year by January 1, 2030? [Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same c... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a single facility will have the largest cultivated meat production capacity of 6.13k metric tons per year by January 1, 2030? [Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same c... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first babies screened by Orchid Health will be born by Dec 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a biocomputer will not be able to perform an SHA-256 hash by 2060? A significant amount of energy, money, and energy is currently (as of 2021) being devoted to performing SHA-256 hashes, because these are the basic operation of bitcoin mining, so that the ability to perform energy efficient hash... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 2.93B USD will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a single facility will have a plant-based meat production capacity of 70.3k metric tons per year by January 1, 2030? The production capacity of plant-based foods are steadily growing as more scalable techniques for texturising plant-protein are being developed. As a result, contract manufacturin... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 2.93B USD will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a de-allergenized peanut, soy, or wheat-based product will first be sold somewhere in the US or EU by 2032? Many plant-based meat alternatives are based on common plants, seeds, nuts and legumes that are high in protein, such as soy, wheat and peanuts. However, allergies to such foodstuffs [are ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a single facility will have the largest cultivated meat production capacity of 6.13k metric tons per year by January 1, 2030? [Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same c... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a single facility will have a plant-based meat production capacity of 70.3k metric tons per year by January 1, 2030? The production capacity of plant-based foods are steadily growing as more scalable techniques for texturising plant-protein are being developed. As a result, contract manufacturin... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a de-allergenized peanut, soy, or wheat-based product will first be sold somewhere in the US or EU by 2032? Many plant-based meat alternatives are based on common plants, seeds, nuts and legumes that are high in protein, such as soy, wheat and peanuts. However, allergies to such foodstuffs [are ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 2.93B USD will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.194 proportion of well-known QSRs will offer a cultivated meat product in 2026? <small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>
[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is anim... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.194 proportion of well-known QSRs will offer a cultivated meat product in 2026? <small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>
[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is anim... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a single facility will have a plant-based meat production capacity of 70.3k metric tons per year by January 1, 2030? The production capacity of plant-based foods are steadily growing as more scalable techniques for texturising plant-protein are being developed. As a result, contract manufacturin... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 5 cultivated meat products will be approved for sale in the US by May 2025? <small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>
[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is a... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a de-allergenized peanut, soy, or wheat-based product will first be sold somewhere in the US or EU by 2032? Many plant-based meat alternatives are based on common plants, seeds, nuts and legumes that are high in protein, such as soy, wheat and peanuts. However, allergies to such foodstuffs [are ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 5 cultivated meat products will be approved for sale in the US by May 2025? <small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>
[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is a... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 5 cultivated meat products will be approved for sale in the US by May 2025? <small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>
[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is a... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the age-adjusted mortality rate in England and Wales will be 1.03k in 2051? The worldwide Coronavirus/COVID-19 crisis has got many people talking about comparing the risks across time and place. [John Appleby published a paper in the British Medical Journal in April 2021 discussing the various B... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.194 proportion of well-known QSRs will offer a cultivated meat product in 2026? <small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>
[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is anim... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How far away is the nearest independent origination of life?
Keyword: 27.0B
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the nearest independent origination of life is 27.0B light years away? We know that life originated at least once, on Earth of order 4 billion years ago. Supposing we come across a... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the age-adjusted mortality rate in England and Wales will be 1.03k in 2051? The worldwide Coronavirus/COVID-19 crisis has got many people talking about comparing the risks across time and place. [John Appleby published a paper in the British Medical Journal in April 2021 discussing the various B... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 will not be born before 2999? As genetic and biological scientific understanding grows, it seems likely that at some point not far in the future, or perhaps already, people could have been born, or will be born, that will eventually beat the ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How far away is the nearest independent origination of life?
Keyword: 27.0B
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the nearest independent origination of life is 27.0B light years away? We know that life originated at least once, on Earth of order 4 billion years ago. Supposing we come across a... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total capacity of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be 464 GW by 2030? Carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) describes a set of technologies in which carbon dioxide is captured and either used or stored long-term to stop it from co... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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