text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 71.7M towards AI risk reduction in 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.151 proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a US-Russia war will start by 2050, given that it is predicted to start in 2037? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.066 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? (Pakistan) [Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such a... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 71.7M towards AI risk reduction in 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.066 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? (Pakistan) [Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such a... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 71.7M towards AI risk reduction in 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.151 proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.151 proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 16.3M towards AI risk reduction in 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 16.3M towards AI risk reduction in 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 16.3M towards AI risk reduction in 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 394M towards Scientific Research in 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 394M towards Scientific Research in 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 163M towards Animal Welfare in 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 163M towards Animal Welfare in 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 70.8M towards Scientific Research in 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 394M towards Scientific Research in 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 70.8M towards Scientific Research in 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 27.6M towards Animal Welfare in 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 163M towards Animal Welfare in 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 70.8M towards Scientific Research in 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 27.6M towards Animal Welfare in 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 150M towards Global Health and Development by 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 428M towards Global Health and Development in the year 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 27.6M towards Animal Welfare in 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 150M towards Global Health and Development by 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 428M towards Global Health and Development in the year 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 428M towards Global Health and Development in the year 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 150M towards Global Health and Development by 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 68.2M towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2030?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant less than 10 million dollars towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 68.5M towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China's total dependency ratio will be 72.3% in 2039? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant less than $10 million towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China's total dependency ratio will be 72.3% in 2039? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 68.5M towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 68.2M towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 68.2M towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant less than $10 million towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2030?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant less than 10 million dollars towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant less than $10 million towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Germany's total dependency ratio will be 80.4% in 2039? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Germany's total dependency ratio will be 80.4% in 2039? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant 68.5M towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the U.S.' total dependency ratio will be 85.8% in 2039? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China's total dependency ratio will be 72.3% in 2039? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Germany's total dependency ratio will be 80.4% in 2039? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.8 US states will decriminalize psilocybin on January 1, 2027? Psilocybin is a Schedule I psychedelic drug in the US.
Psilocybin has [low toxicity and a low harm potential](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21256914/). As of 2021, psilocybin-assisted therapy is or has been investigated for its ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.8 US states will decriminalize psilocybin on January 1, 2027? Psilocybin is a Schedule I psychedelic drug in the US.
Psilocybin has [low toxicity and a low harm potential](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21256914/). As of 2021, psilocybin-assisted therapy is or has been investigated for its ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2030?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that Open Philanthropy will grant less than 10 million dollars towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.262 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? (Russia) [Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.262 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? (Russia) [Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.8 US states will decriminalize psilocybin on January 1, 2027? Psilocybin is a Schedule I psychedelic drug in the US.
Psilocybin has [low toxicity and a low harm potential](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21256914/). As of 2021, psilocybin-assisted therapy is or has been investigated for its ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that less than 1 nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050? Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-we... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that less than 1 nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050? Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-we... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.037 fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue? [Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations". Compared to nu... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.015 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? (United States) | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the U.S.' total dependency ratio will be 85.8% in 2039? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.015 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? (United States) | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.015 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? (United States) | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that less than 1 nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050? Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-we... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the U.S.' total dependency ratio will be 85.8% in 2039? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.559 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? (China) | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.559 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? (China) | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.037 fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue? [Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations". Compared to nu... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.037 fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue? [Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations". Compared to nu... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.559 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? (China) | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.7 teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict? Nuclear war has the potential to kill far more people via its climate effects than it does directly, and those climate effects are also typically seen as the most likely path by w... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.262 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? (Russia) [Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.7 teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict? Nuclear war has the potential to kill far more people via its climate effects than it does directly, and those climate effects are also typically seen as the most likely path by w... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 10.7 teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict? Nuclear war has the potential to kill far more people via its climate effects than it does directly, and those climate effects are also typically seen as the most likely path by w... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next great financial crisis in the US will occur by 2035? Following the financial crisis of 2008 which accompanied the Great Recession, the United States government has taken a multitude of measures to reduce the risk of another financial crisis. However, it remains difficult to know how eff... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next great financial crisis in the US will occur by 2035? Following the financial crisis of 2008 which accompanied the Great Recession, the United States government has taken a multitude of measures to reduce the risk of another financial crisis. However, it remains difficult to know how eff... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Neanderthal will be born again by Nov 2098? The complete genome of a Neanderthal has already been [sequenced](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12886). The noted geneticist and synthetic biologist [George Church](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)) suggests that Neand... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the price of Bitcoin will first drop below $6481 (2021 USD) by Sep 2027? [Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is the oldest cryptocurrency. After an [all time high of 64 805 USD](https://athcoinindex.com/coin/bitcoin), the price has hovered around 35 000 USD for the last few months.... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next great financial crisis in the US will occur by 2035? Following the financial crisis of 2008 which accompanied the Great Recession, the United States government has taken a multitude of measures to reduce the risk of another financial crisis. However, it remains difficult to know how eff... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Neanderthal will be born again by Nov 2098? The complete genome of a Neanderthal has already been [sequenced](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12886). The noted geneticist and synthetic biologist [George Church](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)) suggests that Neand... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Neanderthal will be born again by Nov 2098? The complete genome of a Neanderthal has already been [sequenced](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12886). The noted geneticist and synthetic biologist [George Church](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)) suggests that Neand... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the EU will set a phase out deadline for caged-housing for egg-laying hens by 2035? _This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies._
This is in additi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a computer program will be credited as an artist of at least ten pages of content in Weekly Shonen Jump by Dec 2024? Modern visual creative tools like Adobe Creative and Clip Studio Paint already offer increasingly sophisticated AI-assisted editing. At the leading edge, technologies like [genera... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the price of Bitcoin will first drop below $6481 (2021 USD) by Sep 2027? [Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is the oldest cryptocurrency. After an [all time high of 64 805 USD](https://athcoinindex.com/coin/bitcoin), the price has hovered around 35 000 USD for the last few months.... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the price of Bitcoin will first drop below $6481 (2021 USD) by Sep 2027? [Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is the oldest cryptocurrency. After an [all time high of 64 805 USD](https://athcoinindex.com/coin/bitcoin), the price has hovered around 35 000 USD for the last few months.... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a computer program will be credited as an artist of at least ten pages of content in Weekly Shonen Jump by Dec 2024? Modern visual creative tools like Adobe Creative and Clip Studio Paint already offer increasingly sophisticated AI-assisted editing. At the leading edge, technologies like [genera... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a computer program will be credited as an artist of at least ten pages of content in Weekly Shonen Jump by Dec 2024? Modern visual creative tools like Adobe Creative and Clip Studio Paint already offer increasingly sophisticated AI-assisted editing. At the leading edge, technologies like [genera... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real Gross World Product will be 25.8k trillions of 2020 USD in 2100? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real Gross World Product will be 25.8k trillions of 2020 USD in 2100? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the EU will set a phase out deadline for caged-housing for egg-laying hens by 2035? _This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies._
This is in additi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real Gross World Product will be 25.8k trillions of 2020 USD in 2100? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the EU will set a phase out deadline for caged-housing for egg-laying hens by 2035? _This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies._
This is in additi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real Gross World Product will be 316k trillions of 2020 USD by 2200? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Twin Prime Conjecture will be resolved by 2043? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Twin Prime Conjecture will be resolved by 2043? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real Gross World Product will be 316k trillions of 2020 USD by 2200? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real Gross World Product will be 316k trillions of 2020 USD by 2200? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.011 fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Twin Prime Conjecture will be resolved by 2043? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Vanguard Information Technology ETF will yield an inflation-adjusted return of 1.28k from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.011 fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.011 fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
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