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In 2040, what is the chance that the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in ZFC set theory will be 179.0? The [busy beavers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busy_beaver) are a class of Turing machines which are optimized to either run as long as possible or print as big of an output as poss... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that P = NP will be settled before Not ≤ 2121? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Does P = NP?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/)
* [When will the next Millennium Prize Pr... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 18.6% of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~USA&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total&Select+a+source=Nuclear&hideControls=true" loading=... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 18.6% of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~USA&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total&Select+a+source=Nuclear&hideControls=true" loading=... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 18.6% of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~USA&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total&Select+a+source=Nuclear&hideControls=true" loading=... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
In 2040, what is the chance that the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in Peano arithmetic will be 236.0? The [busy beavers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busy_beaver) are a class of Turing machines which are optimized to either run as long as possible or print as big of an output as po... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that nuclear fusion will provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy by 2039? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/)
* [When will a private fusion company first repo... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 45.7% of the US population will have been diagnosed with myopia/nearsightedness in 2050? [Myopia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myopia) (or nearsightedness) is a condition where distant objects appear out-of-focus, whereas objects closer to the subject remain clear (depending on the severity of ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Alireza Firouzja will not be the top FIDE-ranked chess player by 2035? [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alireza_Firouzja):
>Alireza Firouzja (Persian: علیرضا فیروزجا, Persian pronunciation: [æliːɾezɑː fiːɾuːzˈdʒɑː]; born 18 June 2003) is an Iranian-French chess grandmaster. Since Decem... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that nuclear fusion will provide more than 10% of the world's primary energy by 2055? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/)
* [When will a private fusion company first repo... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Magnus Carlsen no longer be the top FIDE-ranked chess player by Apr 2028? [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen) is a Norwegian chess player who has [held a #1 ranking among all FIDE players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FIDE_chess_world_number_ones) since July 1... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Magnus Carlsen no longer be the top FIDE-ranked chess player by Apr 2028? [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen) is a Norwegian chess player who has [held a #1 ranking among all FIDE players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FIDE_chess_world_number_ones) since July 1... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 45.7% of the US population will have been diagnosed with myopia/nearsightedness in 2050? [Myopia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myopia) (or nearsightedness) is a condition where distant objects appear out-of-focus, whereas objects closer to the subject remain clear (depending on the severity of ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Alireza Firouzja will not be the top FIDE-ranked chess player by 2035? [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alireza_Firouzja):
>Alireza Firouzja (Persian: علیرضا فیروزجا, Persian pronunciation: [æliːɾezɑː fiːɾuːzˈdʒɑː]; born 18 June 2003) is an Iranian-French chess grandmaster. Since Decem... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.01 percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2025? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [How many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from nuclear power worldwide in the year 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9222/twh-of-electrici... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Alireza Firouzja will not be the top FIDE-ranked chess player by 2035? [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alireza_Firouzja):
>Alireza Firouzja (Persian: علیرضا فیروزجا, Persian pronunciation: [æliːɾezɑː fiːɾuːzˈdʒɑː]; born 18 June 2003) is an Iranian-French chess grandmaster. Since Decem... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Magnus Carlsen no longer be the top FIDE-ranked chess player by Apr 2028? [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen) is a Norwegian chess player who has [held a #1 ranking among all FIDE players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FIDE_chess_world_number_ones) since July 1... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 45.7% of the US population will have been diagnosed with myopia/nearsightedness in 2050? [Myopia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myopia) (or nearsightedness) is a condition where distant objects appear out-of-focus, whereas objects closer to the subject remain clear (depending on the severity of ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that nuclear fusion will provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy by 2039? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/)
* [When will a private fusion company first repo... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that nuclear fusion will provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy by 2039? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/)
* [When will a private fusion company first repo... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.01 percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2025? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [How many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from nuclear power worldwide in the year 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9222/twh-of-electrici... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.01 percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2025? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [How many terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from nuclear power worldwide in the year 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9222/twh-of-electrici... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 58.6% of France's electricity consumption will be supplied by nuclear power in 2035? As of 2019, France produces a larger share of its electricity (67%) from nuclear power [than any other nation](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=FRA~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Break... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 58.6% of France's electricity consumption will be supplied by nuclear power in 2035? As of 2019, France produces a larger share of its electricity (67%) from nuclear power [than any other nation](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=FRA~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Break... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that nuclear power will produce 4.46% of global primary energy consumption by 2040? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9495/share-of-world-energy-from-nuclear-in-202... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
In 2040, what is the chance that the UK will consume 494 TWh of natural gas? In 2016, The UK [produced approximately 461 Megatonnes](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?time=1937..2020&facet=none&country=~GBR&Gas=All+GHGs+%28CO%E2%82%82eq%29&Accounting=Production-based&Fuel=Total&Count=Per+country) of [CO2 equival... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Carlos Alcaraz will win 8.99 Grand Slams? [Carlos Alcaraz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Alcaraz) is a Spanish professional tennis player. As of May 2022, he is ranked #6 in the world at age 19, making him the highest-ranked teenager by a large margin.
As of May 2022, in the past 12 mont... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
In 2040, what is the chance that the UK will consume 494 TWh of natural gas? In 2016, The UK [produced approximately 461 Megatonnes](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?time=1937..2020&facet=none&country=~GBR&Gas=All+GHGs+%28CO%E2%82%82eq%29&Accounting=Production-based&Fuel=Total&Count=Per+country) of [CO2 equival... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that South Korea's fertility will be 0.562 in 2032? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [What will China's total fertility rate be in 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8959/chinese-fertility-in-2031/)
* [What will be Hungary's children per woman in the year 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Carlos Alcaraz will win 8.99 Grand Slams? [Carlos Alcaraz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Alcaraz) is a Spanish professional tennis player. As of May 2022, he is ranked #6 in the world at age 19, making him the highest-ranked teenager by a large margin.
As of May 2022, in the past 12 mont... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that nuclear power will produce 4.46% of global primary energy consumption by 2040? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9495/share-of-world-energy-from-nuclear-in-202... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that South Korea's fertility will be 0.562 in 2032? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [What will China's total fertility rate be in 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8959/chinese-fertility-in-2031/)
* [What will be Hungary's children per woman in the year 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Carlos Alcaraz will win 8.99 Grand Slams? [Carlos Alcaraz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Alcaraz) is a Spanish professional tennis player. As of May 2022, he is ranked #6 in the world at age 19, making him the highest-ranked teenager by a large margin.
As of May 2022, in the past 12 mont... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 2.99 percentage of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 58.6% of France's electricity consumption will be supplied by nuclear power in 2035? As of 2019, France produces a larger share of its electricity (67%) from nuclear power [than any other nation](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=FRA~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Break... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 2.99 percentage of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that nuclear power will produce 4.46% of global primary energy consumption by 2040? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9495/share-of-world-energy-from-nuclear-in-202... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
In 2040, what is the chance that the UK will consume 494 TWh of natural gas? In 2016, The UK [produced approximately 461 Megatonnes](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?time=1937..2020&facet=none&country=~GBR&Gas=All+GHGs+%28CO%E2%82%82eq%29&Accounting=Production-based&Fuel=Total&Count=Per+country) of [CO2 equival... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 2.99 percentage of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that South Korea's fertility will be 0.562 in 2032? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [What will China's total fertility rate be in 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8959/chinese-fertility-in-2031/)
* [What will be Hungary's children per woman in the year 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest Common Crawl will be 1.93k TiB by 2032? [Common Crawl](https://commoncrawl.org/) is a nonprofit that crawls the web and freely provides its archives and datasets to the public. Common Crawl's web archive consists of petabytes of data collected since 2011. It completes crawls generall... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest Common Crawl will be 1.93k TiB by 2032? [Common Crawl](https://commoncrawl.org/) is a nonprofit that crawls the web and freely provides its archives and datasets to the public. Common Crawl's web archive consists of petabytes of data collected since 2011. It completes crawls generall... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest Common Crawl will be 1.93k TiB by 2032? [Common Crawl](https://commoncrawl.org/) is a nonprofit that crawls the web and freely provides its archives and datasets to the public. Common Crawl's web archive consists of petabytes of data collected since 2011. It completes crawls generall... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that >50% of users will access Google over IPv6 by Dec 2024? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX Starship will first successfully fly an external customer payload by Aug 2025? SpaceX [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a heavy-lift orbital launch vehicle, intended for crewed and uncrewed flight, reusability, and deep-space capability. This question will resol... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that >50% of users will access Google over IPv6 by Dec 2024? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a biological attack against crops or livestock will result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages by 2094? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/251/bioagents-against-c... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will break up Meta Platforms by Jun 2029? [Facebook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta_Platforms) has used [Section 230](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_230) of the Communications Decency Act of 1996 to shield itself from lawsuits, same as other Big Tech companies; but it has been ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a biological attack against crops or livestock will result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages by 2094? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/251/bioagents-against-c... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Altos Labs will first trial an anti-aging intervention in humans by 2027? In 2006, Shinya Yamanaka [discovered](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_pluripotent_stem_cell) that mature cells can be reprogrammed into pluripotent stem cells by the induction of four proteins, which are now called t... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will break up Meta Platforms by Jun 2029? [Facebook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta_Platforms) has used [Section 230](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_230) of the Communications Decency Act of 1996 to shield itself from lawsuits, same as other Big Tech companies; but it has been ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Altos Labs will first trial an anti-aging intervention in humans by 2027? In 2006, Shinya Yamanaka [discovered](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_pluripotent_stem_cell) that mature cells can be reprogrammed into pluripotent stem cells by the induction of four proteins, which are now called t... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.99% of exhibitors at Art Basel (in Basel, Switzerland) in 2030 will offer an NFT? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will at least one work presented at Art Basel 2030 use an NFT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9587/nft-presented-at-art-basel-2030/)
----
[Non-Fungible Tokens](https:/... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Altos Labs will first trial an anti-aging intervention in humans by 2027? In 2006, Shinya Yamanaka [discovered](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_pluripotent_stem_cell) that mature cells can be reprogrammed into pluripotent stem cells by the induction of four proteins, which are now called t... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.99% of exhibitors at Art Basel (in Basel, Switzerland) in 2030 will offer an NFT? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will at least one work presented at Art Basel 2030 use an NFT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9587/nft-presented-at-art-basel-2030/)
----
[Non-Fungible Tokens](https:/... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that >50% of users will access Google over IPv6 by Dec 2024? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will break up Meta Platforms by Jun 2029? [Facebook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta_Platforms) has used [Section 230](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_230) of the Communications Decency Act of 1996 to shield itself from lawsuits, same as other Big Tech companies; but it has been ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX Starship will first successfully fly an external customer payload by Aug 2025? SpaceX [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a heavy-lift orbital launch vehicle, intended for crewed and uncrewed flight, reusability, and deep-space capability. This question will resol... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.99% of exhibitors at Art Basel (in Basel, Switzerland) in 2030 will offer an NFT? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will at least one work presented at Art Basel 2030 use an NFT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9587/nft-presented-at-art-basel-2030/)
----
[Non-Fungible Tokens](https:/... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX Starship will first successfully fly an external customer payload by Aug 2025? SpaceX [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a heavy-lift orbital launch vehicle, intended for crewed and uncrewed flight, reusability, and deep-space capability. This question will resol... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a biological attack against crops or livestock will result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages by 2094? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/251/bioagents-against-c... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What will be Germany's per-capita CO2 emissions in 2030, in tonnes?
Keyword: 8.21
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that Germany's per-capita CO2 emissions in 2030 will be 75% of the current level? Germany's recently elected coalition government announced (in November 2021) more aggressive pledge... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What will be Germany's per-capita CO2 emissions in 2030, in tonnes?
Keyword: 8.21
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that Germany's per-capita CO2 emissions in 2030 will be 75% of the current level? Germany's recently elected coalition government announced (in November 2021) more aggressive pledge... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a wild grizzly bear will be sighted in Colorado by 2049? The [grizzly bear](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grizzly_bear) (Ursus arctos horribilis) is a brown bear native to North America. Prior to the 20th century, grizzlies ranged from Canada down to Mexico and west of Kansas across to the Pacif... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will first successfully land people on Mars by 2058? A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.
In the early 21st century, numerous US, Euro... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset will be 80.2% by January 1, 2025? From the abstract of [Pang et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.08608):
> To enable building and testing models on long-document comprehension, we introduce QuALITY, a multiple-choice QA... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset will be 96.37% by January 1, 2030? From the abstract of [Pang et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.08608):
> To enable building and testing models on long-document comprehension, we introduce QuALITY, a multiple-choice Q... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset will be 96.37% by January 1, 2030? From the abstract of [Pang et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.08608):
> To enable building and testing models on long-document comprehension, we introduce QuALITY, a multiple-choice Q... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset will be 80.2% by January 1, 2025? From the abstract of [Pang et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.08608):
> To enable building and testing models on long-document comprehension, we introduce QuALITY, a multiple-choice QA... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset will be 93.0 by January 1, 2040? From the abstract of [Pang et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.08608):
> To enable building and testing models on long-document comprehension, we introduce QuALITY, a multiple-choice QA ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What will be Germany's per-capita CO2 emissions in 2030, in tonnes?
Keyword: 8.21
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that Germany's per-capita CO2 emissions in 2030 will be 75% of the current level? Germany's recently elected coalition government announced (in November 2021) more aggressive pledge... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will first successfully land people on Mars by 2058? A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.
In the early 21st century, numerous US, Euro... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a wild grizzly bear will be sighted in Colorado by 2049? The [grizzly bear](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grizzly_bear) (Ursus arctos horribilis) is a brown bear native to North America. Prior to the 20th century, grizzlies ranged from Canada down to Mexico and west of Kansas across to the Pacif... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset will be 93.0 by January 1, 2040? From the abstract of [Pang et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.08608):
> To enable building and testing models on long-document comprehension, we introduce QuALITY, a multiple-choice QA ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset will be 96.37% by January 1, 2030? From the abstract of [Pang et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.08608):
> To enable building and testing models on long-document comprehension, we introduce QuALITY, a multiple-choice Q... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset will be 93.0 by January 1, 2040? From the abstract of [Pang et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.08608):
> To enable building and testing models on long-document comprehension, we introduce QuALITY, a multiple-choice QA ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 24.8% of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on January 1, 2050? [Land conservation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habitat_conservation) is the practice of limiting human impact and activity in protected areas. Generally speaking, protecting greater shares of land leads to preserving nat... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 24.8% of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on January 1, 2050? [Land conservation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habitat_conservation) is the practice of limiting human impact and activity in protected areas. Generally speaking, protecting greater shares of land leads to preserving nat... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will first successfully land people on Mars by 2058? A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.
In the early 21st century, numerous US, Euro... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an upper-bound on the age of federal US politicians will be implemented by Not ≤ 2100? There are minimum age requirements for participation in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives, and to become the U.S. president. These requirements are contained in the [U.S. Constitution](https://... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a wild grizzly bear will be sighted in Colorado by 2049? The [grizzly bear](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grizzly_bear) (Ursus arctos horribilis) is a brown bear native to North America. Prior to the 20th century, grizzlies ranged from Canada down to Mexico and west of Kansas across to the Pacif... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean age of the next 5 US Presidents from 2022 to 2040 will be 58.9 years old? To be president of the United States, one must be at least 35 years of age.
In Section 1 of Article II of the [U.S. Constitution](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/):
> No Person except a natural b... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an upper-bound on the age of federal US politicians will be implemented by Not ≤ 2100? There are minimum age requirements for participation in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives, and to become the U.S. president. These requirements are contained in the [U.S. Constitution](https://... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an upper-bound on the age of federal US politicians will be implemented by Not ≤ 2100? There are minimum age requirements for participation in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives, and to become the U.S. president. These requirements are contained in the [U.S. Constitution](https://... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first batch of Mill CPUs will not ship before January 2035? The Mill is a new CPU architecture (like ARM and x86) and family (like AMD Ryzen or Intel Skylake) developed by [Mill Computing Inc.](https://millcomputing.com/) It aims to be more power-efficient than existing architectures.
Since... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean age of the next 5 US Presidents from 2022 to 2040 will be 58.9 years old? To be president of the United States, one must be at least 35 years of age.
In Section 1 of Article II of the [U.S. Constitution](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/):
> No Person except a natural b... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset will be 80.2% by January 1, 2025? From the abstract of [Pang et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.08608):
> To enable building and testing models on long-document comprehension, we introduce QuALITY, a multiple-choice QA... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first batch of Mill CPUs will not ship before January 2035? The Mill is a new CPU architecture (like ARM and x86) and family (like AMD Ryzen or Intel Skylake) developed by [Mill Computing Inc.](https://millcomputing.com/) It aims to be more power-efficient than existing architectures.
Since... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first batch of Mill CPUs will not ship before January 2035? The Mill is a new CPU architecture (like ARM and x86) and family (like AMD Ryzen or Intel Skylake) developed by [Mill Computing Inc.](https://millcomputing.com/) It aims to be more power-efficient than existing architectures.
Since... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 24.8% of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on January 1, 2050? [Land conservation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habitat_conservation) is the practice of limiting human impact and activity in protected areas. Generally speaking, protecting greater shares of land leads to preserving nat... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 9.445 percent of the US population will live in Texas in the next census? Texas had one of the largest population increases in the prior census and is one of the most populous states. Currently about 8.9% of the US population lives there. The data source is population estimates published on cens... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean age of the next 5 US Presidents from 2022 to 2040 will be 58.9 years old? To be president of the United States, one must be at least 35 years of age.
In Section 1 of Article II of the [U.S. Constitution](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/):
> No Person except a natural b... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 9.445 percent of the US population will live in Texas in the next census? Texas had one of the largest population increases in the prior census and is one of the most populous states. Currently about 8.9% of the US population lives there. The data source is population estimates published on cens... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 17.1 named variants of SARS-COV-2 in its first 10 years? [In the last day of the 2010s](https://twitter.com/who/status/1213795226072109058), the World Health Organization was notified by Beijing of a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, Hubei. This marked the beginning of the curre... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 17.1 named variants of SARS-COV-2 in its first 10 years? [In the last day of the 2010s](https://twitter.com/who/status/1213795226072109058), the World Health Organization was notified by Beijing of a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, Hubei. This marked the beginning of the curre... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 17.1 named variants of SARS-COV-2 in its first 10 years? [In the last day of the 2010s](https://twitter.com/who/status/1213795226072109058), the World Health Organization was notified by Beijing of a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, Hubei. This marked the beginning of the curre... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 9.445 percent of the US population will live in Texas in the next census? Texas had one of the largest population increases in the prior census and is one of the most populous states. Currently about 8.9% of the US population lives there. The data source is population estimates published on cens... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo will file a lawsuit against their parent(s) for doing so by 2049? Most individuals do not take legal action against their parents for the decisions they made before the individual's birth, but, nonetheless, some do take action. For ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo will file a lawsuit against their parent(s) for doing so by 2049? Most individuals do not take legal action against their parents for the decisions they made before the individual's birth, but, nonetheless, some do take action. For ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum price (in 2021 USD) to clone a pet dog in 2030 will be 7.01k? According to the [Genetic Science Learning Center](https://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/cloning/clonezone/), one timeline of research relevant to cloning is*:
- 1885 - First-ever demonstration of artificial embryo twin... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
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