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What is the chance that the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 will be 30.9 on January 1, 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 will be 30.9 on January 1, 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the last baseball World Series will be played by 2062? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that one or more Australian governments will stop celebrating Australia Day on the 26th of January by February 2031? On 26 January 1788, the First Fleet landed in Sydney Cove and raised the British flag. In the intervening centuries, the anniversary or a date close to it (like the nearest Monday) was... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 will be 30.9 on January 1, 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that one or more Australian governments will stop celebrating Australia Day on the 26th of January by February 2031? On 26 January 1788, the First Fleet landed in Sydney Cove and raised the British flag. In the intervening centuries, the anniversary or a date close to it (like the nearest Monday) was... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Czech Republic will have no coal-fired power plants in its electricity grid by 2042? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset will be 0.936 by 2025? From [Hendrycks et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.03874),
> Many intellectual endeavors require mathematical problem solving, but this skill remains beyond the capabilities of computers. To measure this ability in machine learni... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Czech Republic will have no coal-fired power plants in its electricity grid by 2042? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that one or more Australian governments will stop celebrating Australia Day on the 26th of January by February 2031? On 26 January 1788, the First Fleet landed in Sydney Cove and raised the British flag. In the intervening centuries, the anniversary or a date close to it (like the nearest Monday) was... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset will be 0.936 by 2025? From [Hendrycks et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.03874),
> Many intellectual endeavors require mathematical problem solving, but this skill remains beyond the capabilities of computers. To measure this ability in machine learni... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that BTC will realize a volatility of 2.61 from January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2026? An important question for the future of cryptocurrencies in general and BTC in particular is what will happen to their volatility in the future. As of the time of writing of this question it's normal for BTC prices ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that BTC will realize a volatility of 2.61 from January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2026? An important question for the future of cryptocurrencies in general and BTC in particular is what will happen to their volatility in the future. As of the time of writing of this question it's normal for BTC prices ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Czech Republic will have no coal-fired power plants in its electricity grid by 2042? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first human baby will be born, whose embryo was polygenically selected from a cohort of at least 50 simultaneously obtained ova by 2035? [In vitro fertilization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation) (IVF) is a fertilization procedure in which ova are removed from a woman and... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset will be 0.936 by 2025? From [Hendrycks et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.03874),
> Many intellectual endeavors require mathematical problem solving, but this skill remains beyond the capabilities of computers. To measure this ability in machine learni... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a whole human genome in 2026 will be 194 times the cost in 2021 USD? A genome consists of all of the DNA contained in a cell's nucleus. DNA is composed of four bases (abbreviated G, A, T, and C), with the biological information encoded within DNA determined by the order of... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that BTC will realize a volatility of 2.61 from January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2026? An important question for the future of cryptocurrencies in general and BTC in particular is what will happen to their volatility in the future. As of the time of writing of this question it's normal for BTC prices ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the EU will adopt legally binding regulations protecting the individual's right to explanation by 2025? The EU has already adopted the [General Data Protection Regulation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Data_Protection_Regulation) (GDPR), which, in Recital 71, notes that data subjects hav... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will adopt national general-purpose data protection regulations by 2040 or later? The EU has already adopted the [General Data Protection Regulation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Data_Protection_Regulation) (GDPR), which outlines the rights of data subjects. In the state of Calif... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the EU will adopt legally binding regulations protecting the individual's right to explanation by 2025? The EU has already adopted the [General Data Protection Regulation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Data_Protection_Regulation) (GDPR), which, in Recital 71, notes that data subjects hav... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a whole human genome in 2026 will be 194 times the cost in 2021 USD? A genome consists of all of the DNA contained in a cell's nucleus. DNA is composed of four bases (abbreviated G, A, T, and C), with the biological information encoded within DNA determined by the order of... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the EU will adopt legally binding regulations protecting the individual's right to explanation by 2025? The EU has already adopted the [General Data Protection Regulation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Data_Protection_Regulation) (GDPR), which, in Recital 71, notes that data subjects hav... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a whole human genome in 2026 will be 194 times the cost in 2021 USD? A genome consists of all of the DNA contained in a cell's nucleus. DNA is composed of four bases (abbreviated G, A, T, and C), with the biological information encoded within DNA determined by the order of... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first human baby will be born, whose embryo was polygenically selected from a cohort of at least 50 simultaneously obtained ova by 2035? [In vitro fertilization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation) (IVF) is a fertilization procedure in which ova are removed from a woman and... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will adopt national general-purpose data protection regulations by 2040 or later? The EU has already adopted the [General Data Protection Regulation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Data_Protection_Regulation) (GDPR), which outlines the rights of data subjects. In the state of Calif... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Christie's auction for a single NFT will realize a price of less than $500,000 in 2030 (in 2021 USD)? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold for, in 2020 USD?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/)
----
One o... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China's total fertility rate will be 1.14 in 2031? China repealed its [one-child policy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy) in 2015. It now allows people to have up to [three children](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/31/world/asia/china-three-child-policy.html).
Some commenters [... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will adopt national general-purpose data protection regulations by 2040 or later? The EU has already adopted the [General Data Protection Regulation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Data_Protection_Regulation) (GDPR), which outlines the rights of data subjects. In the state of Calif... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a reusable single-stage-to-orbit vehicle will deliver a payload to orbit by Nov 24, 2035? In an effort to drive launch prices down, [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) and other "new space" launch providers have been developing and flying multi-stage rockets, aiming towards [full reus... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Christie's auction for a single NFT will realize a price of less than $500,000 in 2030 (in 2021 USD)? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold for, in 2020 USD?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/)
----
One o... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 42.6% of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024? In the 2020 election, [37 percent](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ka9n5gzxwotfu1a/wh2020_public_release_crosstabs.xlsx?dl=0) of Latinos who voted for Democrats or Republicans voted for the Republicans. This represented an increase fro... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a reusable single-stage-to-orbit vehicle will deliver a payload to orbit by Nov 24, 2035? In an effort to drive launch prices down, [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) and other "new space" launch providers have been developing and flying multi-stage rockets, aiming towards [full reus... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first human baby will be born, whose embryo was polygenically selected from a cohort of at least 50 simultaneously obtained ova by 2035? [In vitro fertilization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation) (IVF) is a fertilization procedure in which ova are removed from a woman and... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Christie's auction for a single NFT will realize a price of less than $500,000 in 2030 (in 2021 USD)? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold for, in 2020 USD?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/)
----
One o... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Arianespace's revenue (2021 EUR) will be 1.00B in 2025? New space companies like [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacex) have been [driving launch prices down](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_launch_market_competition) through a combination of technical (launcher reusability) and orga... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China's total fertility rate will be 1.14 in 2031? China repealed its [one-child policy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy) in 2015. It now allows people to have up to [three children](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/31/world/asia/china-three-child-policy.html).
Some commenters [... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China's total fertility rate will be 1.14 in 2031? China repealed its [one-child policy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy) in 2015. It now allows people to have up to [three children](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/31/world/asia/china-three-child-policy.html).
Some commenters [... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Arianespace's revenue (2021 EUR) will be 1.00B in 2025? New space companies like [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacex) have been [driving launch prices down](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_launch_market_competition) through a combination of technical (launcher reusability) and orga... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Arianespace's revenue (2021 EUR) will be 1.00B in 2025? New space companies like [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacex) have been [driving launch prices down](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_launch_market_competition) through a combination of technical (launcher reusability) and orga... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a reusable single-stage-to-orbit vehicle will deliver a payload to orbit by Nov 24, 2035? In an effort to drive launch prices down, [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) and other "new space" launch providers have been developing and flying multi-stage rockets, aiming towards [full reus... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 42.6% of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024? In the 2020 election, [37 percent](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ka9n5gzxwotfu1a/wh2020_public_release_crosstabs.xlsx?dl=0) of Latinos who voted for Democrats or Republicans voted for the Republicans. This represented an increase fro... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 67.3 percentage of new passenger car sales will be all-electric in Australia in 2030? *(background text originally by @Grigfall)*
Australia has lagged many other developed countries when it comes to the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Whereas 75% of new passenger car sales in Norway in 202... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will take 5.13 months for the first superintelligent AI to be created after a (weak) AGI is created? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-h... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 42.6% of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024? In the 2020 election, [37 percent](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ka9n5gzxwotfu1a/wh2020_public_release_crosstabs.xlsx?dl=0) of Latinos who voted for Democrats or Republicans voted for the Republicans. This represented an increase fro... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will take 5.13 months for the first superintelligent AI to be created after a (weak) AGI is created? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-h... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will take 5.13 months for the first superintelligent AI to be created after a (weak) AGI is created? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-h... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf will collapse by Aug 2027? Ice shelves are permanent floating sheets of ice that connect to a landmass. Most of the world's ice shelves hug the coast of Antarctica. Because ice shelves already float in the ocean, they [do not contribute directly to sea level rise](... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Chesapeake Bay will receive a grade of A- or higher from UMD's Eco Health Report Card by 2091? The [Chesapeake Bay](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chesapeake_Bay) is the largest estuary in the United States and an important natural resource in the mid-Atlantic region. Economically significant... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf will collapse by Aug 2027? Ice shelves are permanent floating sheets of ice that connect to a landmass. Most of the world's ice shelves hug the coast of Antarctica. Because ice shelves already float in the ocean, they [do not contribute directly to sea level rise](... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How much of the world's electricity will be generated from solar power in the year 2030, according to the keyword 7.52k? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown whether... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 89.4k reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8033/date-who-announces-end-of-covid-19-pandemic/)
----
The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf will collapse by Aug 2027? Ice shelves are permanent floating sheets of ice that connect to a landmass. Most of the world's ice shelves hug the coast of Antarctica. Because ice shelves already float in the ocean, they [do not contribute directly to sea level rise](... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
In January 2030, what is the chance that the Federal Reserve's Index for industrial production of semiconductors and circuit boards will be 818? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related pr... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 67.3 percentage of new passenger car sales will be all-electric in Australia in 2030? *(background text originally by @Grigfall)*
Australia has lagged many other developed countries when it comes to the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Whereas 75% of new passenger car sales in Norway in 202... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How much of the world's electricity will be generated from solar power in the year 2030, according to the keyword 7.52k? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown whether... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
In January 2030, what is the chance that the Federal Reserve's Index for industrial production of semiconductors and circuit boards will be 818? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related pr... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
In January 2030, what is the chance that the Federal Reserve's Index for industrial production of semiconductors and circuit boards will be 818? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related pr... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Chesapeake Bay will receive a grade of A- or higher from UMD's Eco Health Report Card by 2091? The [Chesapeake Bay](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chesapeake_Bay) is the largest estuary in the United States and an important natural resource in the mid-Atlantic region. Economically significant... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 89.4k reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8033/date-who-announces-end-of-covid-19-pandemic/)
----
The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Chesapeake Bay will receive a grade of A- or higher from UMD's Eco Health Report Card by 2091? The [Chesapeake Bay](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chesapeake_Bay) is the largest estuary in the United States and an important natural resource in the mid-Atlantic region. Economically significant... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How much of the world's electricity will be generated from solar power in the year 2030, according to the keyword 7.52k? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown whether... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.40k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from wind power worldwide in the year 2030? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown whethe... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 8.83k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from coal worldwide in the year 2030? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown whether thes... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 67.3 percentage of new passenger car sales will be all-electric in Australia in 2030? *(background text originally by @Grigfall)*
Australia has lagged many other developed countries when it comes to the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Whereas 75% of new passenger car sales in Norway in 202... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.40k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from wind power worldwide in the year 2030? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown whethe... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 89.4k reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8033/date-who-announces-end-of-covid-19-pandemic/)
----
The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.40k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from wind power worldwide in the year 2030? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown whethe... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6.03k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from hydro power worldwide in the year 2030? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown wheth... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.99k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from natural gas worldwide in the year 2030? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown wheth... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 3.26k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from nuclear power worldwide in the year 2030? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown whe... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 8.83k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from coal worldwide in the year 2030? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown whether thes... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 3.26k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from nuclear power worldwide in the year 2030? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown whe... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 3.26k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from nuclear power worldwide in the year 2030? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown whe... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6.03k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from hydro power worldwide in the year 2030? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown wheth... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6.03k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from hydro power worldwide in the year 2030? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown wheth... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.99k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from natural gas worldwide in the year 2030? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown wheth... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 36.8k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated worldwide in the year 2030? A key factor in estimating the makeup of future energy sources in electricity generation as well as future CO2 emissions is how much overall electricity demand there will be in the future. Total electricity genera... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 36.8k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated worldwide in the year 2030? A key factor in estimating the makeup of future energy sources in electricity generation as well as future CO2 emissions is how much overall electricity demand there will be in the future. Total electricity genera... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 623 GW of new wind capacity will be installed globally by 2030? US President Joe Biden has [set a target](https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/exclusive-white-house-pushing-80-clean-us-power-grid-by-2030-2021-04-26/) to reach 80% of US electricity from carbon-free sources by 203... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.99k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from natural gas worldwide in the year 2030? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown wheth... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 8.83k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated from coal worldwide in the year 2030? World leaders have made [increasingly ambitious pledges](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/cop26-heres-what-countries-have-pledged) to reduce carbon emissions in recent years, though it is unknown whether thes... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that fossil fuels will make up less than 50% of United States primary energy consumption by 2052? *Note, most of the text from this question was copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8651/date-fossil-fuels-50-of-global-energy/), which is about global energy consumption, rath... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that fossil fuels will make up less than 50% of United States primary energy consumption by 2052? *Note, most of the text from this question was copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8651/date-fossil-fuels-50-of-global-energy/), which is about global energy consumption, rath... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 36.8k terawatt-hours of electricity will be generated worldwide in the year 2030? A key factor in estimating the makeup of future energy sources in electricity generation as well as future CO2 emissions is how much overall electricity demand there will be in the future. Total electricity genera... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 623 GW of new wind capacity will be installed globally by 2030? US President Joe Biden has [set a target](https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/exclusive-white-house-pushing-80-clean-us-power-grid-by-2030-2021-04-26/) to reach 80% of US electricity from carbon-free sources by 203... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that fossil fuels will make up less than 50% of United States primary energy consumption by 2052? *Note, most of the text from this question was copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8651/date-fossil-fuels-50-of-global-energy/), which is about global energy consumption, rath... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Highest level of ECB Deposit Facility Rate before the next Euro Area (EA) recession will be 3.82? Central bank key interest rates tend to implicate the overall strength of the economy in stable, developed countries and currency areas. Unlike the Federal Reserve, ECB maintained its extremely ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Xi Jinping will leave power in China by 2033? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/955/when-will-xi-jinping-leave-power-in-china/) [closed]
* [Will Xi Jinping continue leading China in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.co... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 623 GW of new wind capacity will be installed globally by 2030? US President Joe Biden has [set a target](https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/exclusive-white-house-pushing-80-clean-us-power-grid-by-2030-2021-04-26/) to reach 80% of US electricity from carbon-free sources by 203... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Xi Jinping will leave power in China by 2033? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/955/when-will-xi-jinping-leave-power-in-china/) [closed]
* [Will Xi Jinping continue leading China in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.co... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Xi Jinping will leave power in China by 2033? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/955/when-will-xi-jinping-leave-power-in-china/) [closed]
* [Will Xi Jinping continue leading China in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.co... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Highest level of ECB Deposit Facility Rate before the next Euro Area (EA) recession will be 3.82? Central bank key interest rates tend to implicate the overall strength of the economy in stable, developed countries and currency areas. Unlike the Federal Reserve, ECB maintained its extremely ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that P = NP will be settled before Not ≤ 2121? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
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What is the chance that the Highest level of ECB Deposit Facility Rate before the next Euro Area (EA) recession will be 3.82? Central bank key interest rates tend to implicate the overall strength of the economy in stable, developed countries and currency areas. Unlike the Federal Reserve, ECB maintained its extremely ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
In 2040, what is the chance that the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in ZFC set theory will be 179.0? The [busy beavers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busy_beaver) are a class of Turing machines which are optimized to either run as long as possible or print as big of an output as poss... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
In 2040, what is the chance that the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in Peano arithmetic will be 236.0? The [busy beavers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busy_beaver) are a class of Turing machines which are optimized to either run as long as possible or print as big of an output as po... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that P = NP will be settled before Not ≤ 2121? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Does P = NP?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/)
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In 2040, what is the chance that the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in ZFC set theory will be 179.0? The [busy beavers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busy_beaver) are a class of Turing machines which are optimized to either run as long as possible or print as big of an output as poss... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
In 2040, what is the chance that the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in Peano arithmetic will be 236.0? The [busy beavers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busy_beaver) are a class of Turing machines which are optimized to either run as long as possible or print as big of an output as po... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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