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What is the chance that some country will do widespread embryo selection for intelligence by 2073? Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that some country will do widespread embryo selection for intelligence by 2073? Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Kim Jong Un will no longer be the leader of North Korea by 2037? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9086/kim-jong-un-leader-of-dprk-until-2024/)
----
[Kim Jong-un... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum price (in 2021 USD) to clone a pet dog in 2030 will be 7.01k? According to the [Genetic Science Learning Center](https://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/cloning/clonezone/), one timeline of research relevant to cloning is*:
- 1885 - First-ever demonstration of artificial embryo twin... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum price (in 2021 USD) to clone a pet dog in 2030 will be 7.01k? According to the [Genetic Science Learning Center](https://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/cloning/clonezone/), one timeline of research relevant to cloning is*:
- 1885 - First-ever demonstration of artificial embryo twin... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Kim Jong Un will no longer be the leader of North Korea by 2037? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9086/kim-jong-un-leader-of-dprk-until-2024/)
----
[Kim Jong-un... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a person who was not screened or genetically modified as an embryo will file a lawsuit against their parents for not doing so by 2041? _Related Question on Metaculus_:
- [When will a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for doing so?... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Kim Jong Un will no longer be the leader of North Korea by 2037? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9086/kim-jong-un-leader-of-dprk-until-2024/)
----
[Kim Jong-un... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Against Malaria Foundation will be 75% cost-effective in 2027, according to GiveWell? The [Against Malaria Foundation](https://www.againstmalaria.com/) (AMF) is a charity that provides long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) to populations at high risk of malaria. These nets protect people, e... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a person who was not screened or genetically modified as an embryo will file a lawsuit against their parents for not doing so by 2041? _Related Question on Metaculus_:
- [When will a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for doing so?... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the levelized cost of battery storage will be 436 in 2027? The [Levelised Cost of Energy Storage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levelized_cost_of_energy) (LCOS) is an estimate of the full cost of building and operating an energy storage facility, relative to the expected amount of energy generat... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a person who was not screened or genetically modified as an embryo will file a lawsuit against their parents for not doing so by 2041? _Related Question on Metaculus_:
- [When will a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for doing so?... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo will file a lawsuit against their parent(s) for doing so by 2049? Most individuals do not take legal action against their parents for the decisions they made before the individual's birth, but, nonetheless, some do take action. For ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake will strike the SF Bay Area by 2052 and result in the death of 3.18k people? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_San_Francisco_earthquake),
> The coast of Northern California was struck by a major earthquake at 5:12 a.m. on Wednesday, April 1... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Against Malaria Foundation will be 75% cost-effective in 2027, according to GiveWell? The [Against Malaria Foundation](https://www.againstmalaria.com/) (AMF) is a charity that provides long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) to populations at high risk of malaria. These nets protect people, e... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that some country will do widespread embryo selection for intelligence by 2073? Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake will strike the SF Bay Area by 2052 and result in the death of 3.18k people? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_San_Francisco_earthquake),
> The coast of Northern California was struck by a major earthquake at 5:12 a.m. on Wednesday, April 1... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake will strike the SF Bay Area by 2052 and result in the death of 3.18k people? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_San_Francisco_earthquake),
> The coast of Northern California was struck by a major earthquake at 5:12 a.m. on Wednesday, April 1... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the levelized cost of battery storage will be 436 in 2027? The [Levelised Cost of Energy Storage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levelized_cost_of_energy) (LCOS) is an estimate of the full cost of building and operating an energy storage facility, relative to the expected amount of energy generat... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the levelized cost of battery storage will be 436 in 2027? The [Levelised Cost of Energy Storage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levelized_cost_of_energy) (LCOS) is an estimate of the full cost of building and operating an energy storage facility, relative to the expected amount of energy generat... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Against Malaria Foundation will be 75% cost-effective in 2027, according to GiveWell? The [Against Malaria Foundation](https://www.againstmalaria.com/) (AMF) is a charity that provides long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) to populations at high risk of malaria. These nets protect people, e... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How far from Earth (in km) is the nearest celestial object with stable liquid water on its surface, given that 1.24×1015 km is the maximum distance? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [How far away is/was the nearest independent origination of life?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7079/where-is-the-nearest-origin... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How far from Earth (in km) is the nearest celestial object with stable liquid water on its surface, given that 1.24×1015 km is the maximum distance? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [How far away is/was the nearest independent origination of life?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7079/where-is-the-nearest-origin... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.80k people will fly to space for the first time in the 2020's? 2021 saw the realization of the dream of private space tourism, with the successful flight of Blue Origin's New Shepherd and Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo, and SpaceX's "Inspiration 4" mission. Professional astronauts travelling t... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.80k people will fly to space for the first time in the 2020's? 2021 saw the realization of the dream of private space tourism, with the successful flight of Blue Origin's New Shepherd and Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo, and SpaceX's "Inspiration 4" mission. Professional astronauts travelling t... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.80k people will fly to space for the first time in the 2020's? 2021 saw the realization of the dream of private space tourism, with the successful flight of Blue Origin's New Shepherd and Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo, and SpaceX's "Inspiration 4" mission. Professional astronauts travelling t... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will reopen its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan by Sep 2027? According to the US [embassy website](https://af.usembassy.gov/embassy/), "The U.S. Embassy in Kabul suspended operations on August 31, 2021."
At some point in the future the US may choose to reopen its embassy in Kab... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.42k inductees will join the Swedish Armed Forces in 2027 via completing basic enlistment training? After the fall of the Soviet Union, the main perceived threat to Sweden's national security was gone. The Swedish government took this as an opportunity to downsize their armed forces, which at ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Jones Act will be repealed by Jan 2028? Section 27 of [Merchant Marine Act of 1920](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchant_Marine_Act_of_1920), colloquially known as the Jones Act, requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried on ships that have been constructed ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Jones Act will be repealed by Jan 2028? Section 27 of [Merchant Marine Act of 1920](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchant_Marine_Act_of_1920), colloquially known as the Jones Act, requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried on ships that have been constructed ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will reopen its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan by Sep 2027? According to the US [embassy website](https://af.usembassy.gov/embassy/), "The U.S. Embassy in Kabul suspended operations on August 31, 2021."
At some point in the future the US may choose to reopen its embassy in Kab... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that someone in the US will not legally sell their kidney before January 2050? More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Jones Act will be repealed by Jan 2028? Section 27 of [Merchant Marine Act of 1920](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchant_Marine_Act_of_1920), colloquially known as the Jones Act, requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried on ships that have been constructed ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that someone in the US will not legally sell their kidney before January 2050? More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will reopen its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan by Sep 2027? According to the US [embassy website](https://af.usembassy.gov/embassy/), "The U.S. Embassy in Kabul suspended operations on August 31, 2021."
At some point in the future the US may choose to reopen its embassy in Kab... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How far from Earth (in km) is the nearest celestial object with stable liquid water on its surface, given that 1.24×1015 km is the maximum distance? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [How far away is/was the nearest independent origination of life?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7079/where-is-the-nearest-origin... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Moscow (stock) Exchange will not reopen its stock and derivative markets to both Russians and foreigners by March 2025? MOEX (Moscow Exchange) is one of the two large Russian stock exchanges. Typically, MOEX used to be open Monday through Friday. On February 24 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Moscow (stock) Exchange will not reopen its stock and derivative markets to both Russians and foreigners by March 2025? MOEX (Moscow Exchange) is one of the two large Russian stock exchanges. Typically, MOEX used to be open Monday through Friday. On February 24 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a permanent human settlement will stay on the Moon for 1 year by 2035? The first humans landed on the moon with the [Apollo 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_11) mission on 1969. Between then and 1972, a total of 12 humans have landed on the moon, though as of May 2022, no human has lande... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a permanent human settlement will stay on the Moon for 1 year by 2035? The first humans landed on the moon with the [Apollo 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_11) mission on 1969. Between then and 1972, a total of 12 humans have landed on the moon, though as of May 2022, no human has lande... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a free flying commercial space station will become operational by Apr 2033? Space stations have offered [platforms for science](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/overview.html) that can only be performed in microgravity, such as studying human physiology and psychology in space... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a permanent human settlement will stay on the Moon for 1 year by 2035? The first humans landed on the moon with the [Apollo 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_11) mission on 1969. Between then and 1972, a total of 12 humans have landed on the moon, though as of May 2022, no human has lande... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Moscow (stock) Exchange will not reopen its stock and derivative markets to both Russians and foreigners by March 2025? MOEX (Moscow Exchange) is one of the two large Russian stock exchanges. Typically, MOEX used to be open Monday through Friday. On February 24 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that someone in the US will not legally sell their kidney before January 2050? More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first tourist will not land on Mars before January 2050? Mars has long been seen as the ultimate goal for human spaceflight. There are [several concepts](https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-44311-9?wt_mc=ThirdParty.SpringerLink.3.EPR653.About_eBook) for a human Mars mission. Th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a free flying commercial space station will become operational by Apr 2033? Space stations have offered [platforms for science](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/overview.html) that can only be performed in microgravity, such as studying human physiology and psychology in space... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a free flying commercial space station will become operational by Apr 2033? Space stations have offered [platforms for science](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/overview.html) that can only be performed in microgravity, such as studying human physiology and psychology in space... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first tourist will not land on Mars before January 2050? Mars has long been seen as the ultimate goal for human spaceflight. There are [several concepts](https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-44311-9?wt_mc=ThirdParty.SpringerLink.3.EPR653.About_eBook) for a human Mars mission. Th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Russia's fertility rate (in births per woman) will be 1.54 in 2027? *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [What will China's total fertility rate be in 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8959/chinese-fertility-in-2031/)
* [What will be Hungary's children per woman in the year 2031?](https... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) will achieve a 23.0% CO2 emission reduction by 2030? Global shipping accounted for over [1,000 million-tonnes of CO2 for 2018](https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/Pages/Fourth-IMO-Greenhouse-Gas-Study-2020.aspx), which accounted for over 2.5%... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) will achieve a 23.0% CO2 emission reduction by 2030? Global shipping accounted for over [1,000 million-tonnes of CO2 for 2018](https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/Pages/Fourth-IMO-Greenhouse-Gas-Study-2020.aspx), which accounted for over 2.5%... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Turkish mission will not make a hard landing on the Moon before January 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will a Turkish mission make a soft landing on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10344/turkish-soft-landing-on-moon/)
The [Turkish Space Agency](https://en.wikip... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first tourist will not land on Mars before January 2050? Mars has long been seen as the ultimate goal for human spaceflight. There are [several concepts](https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-44311-9?wt_mc=ThirdParty.SpringerLink.3.EPR653.About_eBook) for a human Mars mission. Th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Turkish mission will make a soft landing on the Moon by Jun 2037? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When Will a Turkish mission make a hard landing on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10343/turkish-hard-landing-on-moon/)
----
The [Turkish Space Agency](https://en.wikipedia.o... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Turkish mission will not make a hard landing on the Moon before January 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will a Turkish mission make a soft landing on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10344/turkish-soft-landing-on-moon/)
The [Turkish Space Agency](https://en.wikip... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) will achieve a 23.0% CO2 emission reduction by 2030? Global shipping accounted for over [1,000 million-tonnes of CO2 for 2018](https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/Pages/Fourth-IMO-Greenhouse-Gas-Study-2020.aspx), which accounted for over 2.5%... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Turkish mission will not make a hard landing on the Moon before January 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When will a Turkish mission make a soft landing on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10344/turkish-soft-landing-on-moon/)
The [Turkish Space Agency](https://en.wikip... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Turkish mission will make a soft landing on the Moon by Jun 2037? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When Will a Turkish mission make a hard landing on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10343/turkish-hard-landing-on-moon/)
----
The [Turkish Space Agency](https://en.wikipedia.o... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Russia's fertility rate (in births per woman) will be 1.54 in 2027? *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [What will China's total fertility rate be in 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8959/chinese-fertility-in-2031/)
* [What will be Hungary's children per woman in the year 2031?](https... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive) will be greater than 30%? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10359/turkish-inflation-under-4-by-2025/)
----
Turkey has been in a s... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive) will be greater than 30%? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10359/turkish-inflation-under-4-by-2025/)
----
Turkey has been in a s... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Russia's fertility rate (in births per woman) will be 1.54 in 2027? *Related questions on Metaculus:*
* [What will China's total fertility rate be in 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8959/chinese-fertility-in-2031/)
* [What will be Hungary's children per woman in the year 2031?](https... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Turkish mission will make a soft landing on the Moon by Jun 2037? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [When Will a Turkish mission make a hard landing on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10343/turkish-hard-landing-on-moon/)
----
The [Turkish Space Agency](https://en.wikipedia.o... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive) will be greater than 30%? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10359/turkish-inflation-under-4-by-2025/)
----
Turkey has been in a s... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.89k metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050? _Note: For brevity, I use M for a million (10^6) and B for a billion (10^9)._
~545M metric tons of conventional [meat](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production-by-livestock-type), including [seafood](https... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the abc conjecture will be settled by 2036? [The abc conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abc_conjecture) is a conjecture in number theory which states that for a given \( \varepsilon > 0 \), there are only finitely many positive integer solutions of the equation \( a + b = c \) with \( a, ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.89k metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050? _Note: For brevity, I use M for a million (10^6) and B for a billion (10^9)._
~545M metric tons of conventional [meat](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production-by-livestock-type), including [seafood](https... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will win a Nobel prize for the first time by 2059? The Nobel prize can be given in the categories of Physics, Chemistry, Physiology or Medicine, Literature, and Peace. In case the categories change in the future, [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Prize) will decide. I define ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.89k metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050? _Note: For brevity, I use M for a million (10^6) and B for a billion (10^9)._
~545M metric tons of conventional [meat](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production-by-livestock-type), including [seafood](https... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.01k metric tons of ≥20% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050? _Note: For brevity, I use M for a million (10^6) and B for a billion (10^9)._
~545M metric tons of conventional [meat](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production-by-livestock-type), including [seafood](http... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 23.8 metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat costing <$10/kg will be sold from 2020 to 2050? _Note: For brevity, I use M for a million (10^6) and B for a billion (10^9)._
In the USA, composite wholesale broiler (chicken) is [~$1.50 per kilogram](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-indus... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the abc conjecture will be settled by 2036? [The abc conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abc_conjecture) is a conjecture in number theory which states that for a given \( \varepsilon > 0 \), there are only finitely many positive integer solutions of the equation \( a + b = c \) with \( a, ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 23.8 metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat costing <$10/kg will be sold from 2020 to 2050? _Note: For brevity, I use M for a million (10^6) and B for a billion (10^9)._
In the USA, composite wholesale broiler (chicken) is [~$1.50 per kilogram](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-indus... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.01k metric tons of ≥20% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050? _Note: For brevity, I use M for a million (10^6) and B for a billion (10^9)._
~545M metric tons of conventional [meat](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production-by-livestock-type), including [seafood](http... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next (post-Breyer) US Supreme Court vacancy will arise by Aug 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will win a Nobel prize for the first time by 2059? The Nobel prize can be given in the categories of Physics, Chemistry, Physiology or Medicine, Literature, and Peace. In case the categories change in the future, [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Prize) will decide. I define ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next (post-Breyer) US Supreme Court vacancy will arise by Aug 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 23.8 metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat costing <$10/kg will be sold from 2020 to 2050? _Note: For brevity, I use M for a million (10^6) and B for a billion (10^9)._
In the USA, composite wholesale broiler (chicken) is [~$1.50 per kilogram](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-indus... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the abc conjecture will be settled by 2036? [The abc conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abc_conjecture) is a conjecture in number theory which states that for a given \( \varepsilon > 0 \), there are only finitely many positive integer solutions of the equation \( a + b = c \) with \( a, ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Brazil will emit 1.22B tonnes of greenhouse gas in CO2e in 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [How much greenhouse gases will Brazil emit in 2025, in CO2e?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10450/brazillian-ghg-emissions-in-2025/).
----
In 2015, Brazil signed [The Paris Agreement](ht... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will win a Nobel prize for the first time by 2059? The Nobel prize can be given in the categories of Physics, Chemistry, Physiology or Medicine, Literature, and Peace. In case the categories change in the future, [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Prize) will decide. I define ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.01k metric tons of ≥20% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050? _Note: For brevity, I use M for a million (10^6) and B for a billion (10^9)._
~545M metric tons of conventional [meat](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production-by-livestock-type), including [seafood](http... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next (post-Breyer) US Supreme Court vacancy will arise by Aug 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Brazil will emit 1.22B tonnes of greenhouse gas in CO2e in 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [How much greenhouse gases will Brazil emit in 2025, in CO2e?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10450/brazillian-ghg-emissions-in-2025/).
----
In 2015, Brazil signed [The Paris Agreement](ht... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Brazil will emit 1.22B tonnes of greenhouse gas in CO2e in 2030? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [How much greenhouse gases will Brazil emit in 2025, in CO2e?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10450/brazillian-ghg-emissions-in-2025/).
----
In 2015, Brazil signed [The Paris Agreement](ht... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will abolish physical, non-interest bearing cash by 2033? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will abolish physical, non-interest bearing cash by 2049 or later? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will abolish physical, non-interest bearing cash by 2033? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will abolish physical, non-interest bearing cash by 2033? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will abolish physical, non-interest bearing cash by 2049 or later? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US policy rate will reach the zero lower bound 2.94 times after 2022? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will abolish physical, non-interest bearing cash by 2049 or later? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.89k metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050? _Note: For brevity, I use M for a million (10^6) and B for a billion (10^9)._
~545M metric tons of conventional [meat](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production-by-livestock-type), including [seafood](https... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US policy rate will reach the zero lower bound 2.94 times after 2022? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 25.1 metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050? _Note: For brevity, I use M for a million (10^6) and B for a billion (10^9)._
~545M metric tons of conventional [meat](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production-by-livestock-type), including [seafood](https:... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.89k metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050? _Note: For brevity, I use M for a million (10^6) and B for a billion (10^9)._
~545M metric tons of conventional [meat](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production-by-livestock-type), including [seafood](https... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 21.8k metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050? _Note: For brevity, I use M for a million (10^6) and B for a billion (10^9)._
~545M metric tons of conventional [meat](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production-by-livestock-type), including [seafood](https... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US policy rate will reach the zero lower bound 2.94 times after 2022? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.89k metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050? _Note: For brevity, I use M for a million (10^6) and B for a billion (10^9)._
~545M metric tons of conventional [meat](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production-by-livestock-type), including [seafood](https... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 21.8k metric tons of ≥51% cultured meat will be sold from 2020 to 2050? _Note: For brevity, I use M for a million (10^6) and B for a billion (10^9)._
~545M metric tons of conventional [meat](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production-by-livestock-type), including [seafood](https... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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