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What is the chance that 6.93 cities in India will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at least one offens... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX will be a trillion-dollar company by 2038? SpaceX is among the highest-valued privately held companies in the world. As of October, 2021, the company's [published valuation](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/elon-musks-spacex-valuation-100-billion.html) was 100.3 billion nominal US Dollars.... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the FDA or EMA will first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss by 2032? Many drugs are currently in development for the treatment of obesity or overweightness. Notably in June 2021, the FDA approved a 2.4mg dose of [Semaglutide (Wegovy)](https://en.wikipedia.... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the FDA or EMA will first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss by 2032? Many drugs are currently in development for the treatment of obesity or overweightness. Notably in June 2021, the FDA approved a 2.4mg dose of [Semaglutide (Wegovy)](https://en.wikipedia.... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6.93 cities in India will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at least one offens... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6.93 cities in India will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at least one offens... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.2 cities in Russia will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at least one offens... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the FDA or EMA will first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss by 2032? Many drugs are currently in development for the treatment of obesity or overweightness. Notably in June 2021, the FDA approved a 2.4mg dose of [Semaglutide (Wegovy)](https://en.wikipedia.... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.2 cities in Russia will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at least one offens... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.009 fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2? Nuclear detonations on targets with higher population densities would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter). Seve... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.2 cities in Russia will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at least one offens... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, what is the chance that 2.13 cities in Israel will be offensively attacked? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, what is the chance that 2.13 cities in Israel will be offensively attacked? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 26.1 cities in the United States will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at leas... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, what is the chance that 2.13 cities in Israel will be offensively attacked? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.706 fraction of cities in Pakistan will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.706 fraction of cities in Pakistan will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, what is the chance that 3.72 cities in that country will be offensively attacked? (Europe) For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.706 fraction of cities in Pakistan will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, what is the chance that 3.72 cities in that country will be offensively attacked? (Europe) For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
If North Korea is attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, what is the chance that 1.79 cities in that country will be offensively attacked? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 203... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, what is the chance that there will be 43.6 hours between the first and final detonation in the conflict? If there's a large nuclear conflict, how quickly would it play out? Rapid strike and perhaps rapid retaliation? A series of tit-for-tat excha... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If North Korea is attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, what is the chance that 1.79 cities in that country will be offensively attacked? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 203... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 45.6% of Americans will be obese in 2032? *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, what is the chance that there will be 43.6 hours between the first and final detonation in the conflict? If there's a large nuclear conflict, how quickly would it play out? Rapid strike and perhaps rapid retaliation? A series of tit-for-tat excha... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.092 fraction of offensive nuclear detonations will be in the Southern Hemisphere, if more than 50 detonations happen globally by 2050? The extent of the harms from nuclear conflict, and especially the likelihood of a negative [trajectory change](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/trajecto... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, what is the chance that there will be 43.6 hours between the first and final detonation in the conflict? If there's a large nuclear conflict, how quickly would it play out? Rapid strike and perhaps rapid retaliation? A series of tit-for-tat excha... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 75% of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then? What types of offensive nuclear detonation would occur given nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear we... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 75% of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then? What types of offensive nuclear detonation would occur given nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear we... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.092 fraction of offensive nuclear detonations will be in the Southern Hemisphere, if more than 50 detonations happen globally by 2050? The extent of the harms from nuclear conflict, and especially the likelihood of a negative [trajectory change](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/trajecto... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 45.6% of Americans will be obese in 2032? *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 12.9% of US adults will have Diabetes (type 1 and 2) in 2032? The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that [13%](https://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/pdfs/data/statistics/national-diabetes-statistics-report.pdf) of US adults had diabetes in 2015-2016 (all types). [Rates of diabetes h... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 12.9% of US adults will have Diabetes (type 1 and 2) in 2032? The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that [13%](https://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/pdfs/data/statistics/national-diabetes-statistics-report.pdf) of US adults had diabetes in 2015-2016 (all types). [Rates of diabetes h... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 45.6% of Americans will be obese in 2032? *Related question on Metaculus:*
* [What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If North Korea is attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, what is the chance that 1.79 cities in that country will be offensively attacked? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 203... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, what is the chance that 3.72 cities in that country will be offensively attacked? (Europe) For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Vera Rubin Observatory will identify 2.73 interstellar objects in its first two years of observations? As of November 2021, two [interstellar objects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object) (1I/\`Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov) have been discovered while traversing the Solar System. Wh... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Vera Rubin Observatory will identify 2.73 interstellar objects in its first two years of observations? As of November 2021, two [interstellar objects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object) (1I/\`Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov) have been discovered while traversing the Solar System. Wh... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 12.9% of US adults will have Diabetes (type 1 and 2) in 2032? The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that [13%](https://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/pdfs/data/statistics/national-diabetes-statistics-report.pdf) of US adults had diabetes in 2015-2016 (all types). [Rates of diabetes h... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Vera Rubin Observatory will identify 2.73 interstellar objects in its first two years of observations? As of November 2021, two [interstellar objects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object) (1I/\`Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov) have been discovered while traversing the Solar System. Wh... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least 75% of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then? What types of offensive nuclear detonation would occur given nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear we... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.092 fraction of offensive nuclear detonations will be in the Southern Hemisphere, if more than 50 detonations happen globally by 2050? The extent of the harms from nuclear conflict, and especially the likelihood of a negative [trajectory change](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/trajecto... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the levelised cost of PV solar energy in 2030 will be 0.0201 USD per kWh? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
[What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-e... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that fossil fuels will make up less than 50% of global primary energy consumption by 2065? In 2019, fossil fuels made [84%](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Fossil+fuels&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that fossil fuels will make up less than 50% of global primary energy consumption by 2065? In 2019, fossil fuels made [84%](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Fossil+fuels&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How close to Earth will the next 10 Interstellar Objects pass, with a 75% chance of passing within 0.770 units? As of November 2021, two [interstellar objects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object) have been identified. With more powerful all-sky telescopes such as the Vera Rubin Observatory set to commenc... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that fossil fuels will make up less than 50% of global primary energy consumption by 2065? In 2019, fossil fuels made [84%](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Fossil+fuels&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How close to Earth will the next 10 Interstellar Objects pass, with a 75% chance of passing within 0.770 units? As of November 2021, two [interstellar objects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object) have been identified. With more powerful all-sky telescopes such as the Vera Rubin Observatory set to commenc... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the levelised cost of PV solar energy in 2030 will be 0.0201 USD per kWh? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
[What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-e... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Reserve Bank's cash rate target will be 3.54% in June 2025 if Labor wins the next Australian election? Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison pointed to rising inflation in the United States as evidence that economic recovery needs to be well-managed, implying that [interest rates would go... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Reserve Bank's cash rate target will be 3.54% in June 2025 if Labor wins the next Australian election? Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison pointed to rising inflation in the United States as evidence that economic recovery needs to be well-managed, implying that [interest rates would go... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that peak space debris will be reached by 2044 if Kessler syndrome is not triggered? [Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and travelling at ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first space mission will remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit by 2032? [Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and tr... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the USA will stop printing paper $1 dollar bills by 2069? The USA has been printing 1 dollar bills [since 1862](https://www.moneyfactory.gov/uscurrency/1note.html). As of 2021, the bills are printed on paper made from [75% cotton and 25% linen](https://www.moneyfactory.gov/hmimpaperandink.html)... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Reserve Bank's cash rate target will be 3.54% in June 2025 if Labor wins the next Australian election? Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison pointed to rising inflation in the United States as evidence that economic recovery needs to be well-managed, implying that [interest rates would go... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the USA will stop printing paper $1 dollar bills by 2069? The USA has been printing 1 dollar bills [since 1862](https://www.moneyfactory.gov/uscurrency/1note.html). As of 2021, the bills are printed on paper made from [75% cotton and 25% linen](https://www.moneyfactory.gov/hmimpaperandink.html)... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that peak space debris will be reached by 2044 if Kessler syndrome is not triggered? [Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and travelling at ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the USA will stop printing paper $1 dollar bills by 2069? The USA has been printing 1 dollar bills [since 1862](https://www.moneyfactory.gov/uscurrency/1note.html). As of 2021, the bills are printed on paper made from [75% cotton and 25% linen](https://www.moneyfactory.gov/hmimpaperandink.html)... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that peak space debris will be reached by 2044 if Kessler syndrome is not triggered? [Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and travelling at ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first space mission will remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit by 2032? [Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and tr... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the levelised cost of PV solar energy in 2030 will be 0.0201 USD per kWh? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
[What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-e... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest single-year population decline between 2021 to 2120 will be 5.51? Historically, global population declines have been rare but not unprecedented. Some causes have been civil wars which overthrew ruling elites in densely populated regions (China in particular), pandemics which have had... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first space mission will remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit by 2032? [Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and tr... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
In 2030, what is the chance that 0.692 proportion of UK's energy consumption will come from overseas electrical connectors versus battery storage? UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson aims to reduce the UK's [greenhouse gas emissions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions) to [zero by 2050](https://www.carb... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest single-year population decline between 2021 to 2120 will be 5.51? Historically, global population declines have been rare but not unprecedented. Some causes have been civil wars which overthrew ruling elites in densely populated regions (China in particular), pandemics which have had... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world population will decline by 18.80% after World War 3, if such a war happens by 2050? Historically, global population declines have been rare but not unprecedented. Some causes have been civil wars which overthrew ruling elites in densely populated regions (China in particular), pandemic... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world population will decline by 18.80% after World War 3, if such a war happens by 2050? Historically, global population declines have been rare but not unprecedented. Some causes have been civil wars which overthrew ruling elites in densely populated regions (China in particular), pandemic... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
In 2030, what is the chance that 0.692 proportion of UK's energy consumption will come from overseas electrical connectors versus battery storage? UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson aims to reduce the UK's [greenhouse gas emissions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions) to [zero by 2050](https://www.carb... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 49.9 charter cities by 2026? A [charter city](https://www.chartercitiesinstitute.org/category/reference-guides) is a new city with new rules. More specifically, the Charter Cities Institute defines a charter city as a new city developed on a greenfield site with significantly devol... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121 will be 119M? Historically, global population declines have been rare but not unprecedented. Some causes have been civil wars which overthrew ruling elites in densely populated regions (China in part... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121 will be 119M? Historically, global population declines have been rare but not unprecedented. Some causes have been civil wars which overthrew ruling elites in densely populated regions (China in part... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 49.9 charter cities by 2026? A [charter city](https://www.chartercitiesinstitute.org/category/reference-guides) is a new city with new rules. More specifically, the Charter Cities Institute defines a charter city as a new city developed on a greenfield site with significantly devol... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 49.9 charter cities by 2026? A [charter city](https://www.chartercitiesinstitute.org/category/reference-guides) is a new city with new rules. More specifically, the Charter Cities Institute defines a charter city as a new city developed on a greenfield site with significantly devol... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world population will decline by 18.80% after World War 3, if such a war happens by 2050? Historically, global population declines have been rare but not unprecedented. Some causes have been civil wars which overthrew ruling elites in densely populated regions (China in particular), pandemic... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 15.5k structures will be newly deposited to the Protein Data Bank archive in 2025? The structures of proteins in different contexts are collected in the [Protein Data Bank](https://www.wwpdb.org/). These come from different types of experiments, mainly X-ray crystallography, NMR, and cryo-electr... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 15.5k structures will be newly deposited to the Protein Data Bank archive in 2025? The structures of proteins in different contexts are collected in the [Protein Data Bank](https://www.wwpdb.org/). These come from different types of experiments, mainly X-ray crystallography, NMR, and cryo-electr... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
In 2030, what is the chance that 0.692 proportion of UK's energy consumption will come from overseas electrical connectors versus battery storage? UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson aims to reduce the UK's [greenhouse gas emissions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions) to [zero by 2050](https://www.carb... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 22.7% of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Stripe will go public by Nov 2024? Stripe [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)),
> an Irish-American financial services and software as a service (SaaS) company dual-headquartered in San Francisco, United States and Dublin, Ireland.
At the moment, Stripe is [the most highly valu... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Stripe will go public by Nov 2024? Stripe [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)),
> an Irish-American financial services and software as a service (SaaS) company dual-headquartered in San Francisco, United States and Dublin, Ireland.
At the moment, Stripe is [the most highly valu... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest single-year population decline between 2021 to 2120 will be 5.51? Historically, global population declines have been rare but not unprecedented. Some causes have been civil wars which overthrew ruling elites in densely populated regions (China in particular), pandemics which have had... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 3.88 share of all payments (in percent) in the United States will be transacted and settled in real-time in 2028? [Real-Time Payments (RTP)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/fednow_faq.htm) allow financial transactions to be processed and settled instantly, in real-time. This is in ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 22.7% of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 3.88 share of all payments (in percent) in the United States will be transacted and settled in real-time in 2028? [Real-Time Payments (RTP)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/fednow_faq.htm) allow financial transactions to be processed and settled instantly, in real-time. This is in ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 15.5k structures will be newly deposited to the Protein Data Bank archive in 2025? The structures of proteins in different contexts are collected in the [Protein Data Bank](https://www.wwpdb.org/). These come from different types of experiments, mainly X-ray crystallography, NMR, and cryo-electr... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 3.88 share of all payments (in percent) in the United States will be transacted and settled in real-time in 2028? [Real-Time Payments (RTP)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/fednow_faq.htm) allow financial transactions to be processed and settled instantly, in real-time. This is in ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 22.7% of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that the EU will pass the AI Act by May 2024? In [April 2021](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52021PC0206), the European Commission presented the proposal for the Artificial Intelligence Act (AI Act). This legal framework sets out [“horizontal rules for the development... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121 will be 119M? Historically, global population declines have been rare but not unprecedented. Some causes have been civil wars which overthrew ruling elites in densely populated regions (China in part... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 41.5 tonnes of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040? [Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and travelling at high vel... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 68.0% of spacecraft will satisfy post-mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029? [Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that the EU will pass the AI Act by May 2024? In [April 2021](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52021PC0206), the European Commission presented the proposal for the Artificial Intelligence Act (AI Act). This legal framework sets out [“horizontal rules for the development... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 68.0% of spacecraft will satisfy post-mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029? [Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that the EU will pass the AI Act by May 2024? In [April 2021](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52021PC0206), the European Commission presented the proposal for the Artificial Intelligence Act (AI Act). This legal framework sets out [“horizontal rules for the development... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Stripe will go public by Nov 2024? Stripe [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)),
> an Irish-American financial services and software as a service (SaaS) company dual-headquartered in San Francisco, United States and Dublin, Ireland.
At the moment, Stripe is [the most highly valu... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 41.5 tonnes of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040? [Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and travelling at high vel... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 41.5 tonnes of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040? [Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and travelling at high vel... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the last baseball World Series will be played by 2062? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the last baseball World Series will be played by 2062? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 68.0% of spacecraft will satisfy post-mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029? [Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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