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|---|---|---|
What is the chance that humanity will go extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, and if so, when will the last human die? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Germany will elect a new Chancellor by Sep 2026? German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recieved a lot of critisism relating to his decisions concerning the arms deliveries for Ukraine.
Germany currently is governed by a three party coalition of the social democrats (SPD), greens (Grüne) and liberteria... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Germany will elect a new Chancellor by Sep 2026? German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recieved a lot of critisism relating to his decisions concerning the arms deliveries for Ukraine.
Germany currently is governed by a three party coalition of the social democrats (SPD), greens (Grüne) and liberteria... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Julian Assange will not be extradited to the US by January 1, 2025? [Julian Assange](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Assange) is the founder of [WikiLeaks](https://wikileaks.org/), an archival site which publishes classified material, including several original documents and videos of the I... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's total installed capacity (in gigawatts) for gravity batteries will be 152 gigawatts by 2030? [Wind](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/onshore-wind-lcoe-vs-wind-consumption) and [solar](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices-vs-cumulative-capacity) are becoming the world'... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's total installed capacity (in gigawatts) for gravity batteries will be 152 gigawatts by 2030? [Wind](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/onshore-wind-lcoe-vs-wind-consumption) and [solar](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices-vs-cumulative-capacity) are becoming the world'... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ukraine's score in The Democracy Index in 2024 will be 5.07? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ukraine's score in The Democracy Index in 2024 will be 5.07? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Julian Assange will not be extradited to the US by January 1, 2025? [Julian Assange](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Assange) is the founder of [WikiLeaks](https://wikileaks.org/), an archival site which publishes classified material, including several original documents and videos of the I... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ukraine's score in The Democracy Index in 2024 will be 5.07? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's total installed capacity (in gigawatts) for gravity batteries will be 152 gigawatts by 2030? [Wind](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/onshore-wind-lcoe-vs-wind-consumption) and [solar](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices-vs-cumulative-capacity) are becoming the world'... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average unemployment in the US will be 3.58% from January 2022 to December 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Roman Catholic Church will permit the ordination of female clergy by 2099? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Roman Catholic Church will permit the ordination of female clergy by 2099? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Germany will elect a new Chancellor by Sep 2026? German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recieved a lot of critisism relating to his decisions concerning the arms deliveries for Ukraine.
Germany currently is governed by a three party coalition of the social democrats (SPD), greens (Grüne) and liberteria... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Roman Catholic Church will permit the ordination of female clergy by 2099? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Julian Assange will not be extradited to the US by January 1, 2025? [Julian Assange](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Assange) is the founder of [WikiLeaks](https://wikileaks.org/), an archival site which publishes classified material, including several original documents and videos of the I... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 12.0 percentage of American workers will be represented by a labor union in 2030? [Labor Unions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_union), which once held significant influence in American politics and business, have been declining in membership. In 1954, the percentage of employed Americans ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Windows 11 market share will exceed Windows 10's according to the Steam Hardware and Software Survey by Apr 25, 2024? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the market capitalization of Twitter will be less than $10 billion on January 1, 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Windows 11 market share will exceed Windows 10's according to the Steam Hardware and Software Survey by Apr 25, 2024? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the market capitalization of Twitter will be less than $10 billion on January 1, 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the market capitalization of Twitter will be less than $10 billion on January 1, 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a living human will first reach a distance of one light year from Earth by 2132? A [light-year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light-year) is a large unit of length used to express astronomical distances, and is equivalent to about 9.46 trillion kilometres, or 5.88 trillion miles.
The most dista... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 12.0 percentage of American workers will be represented by a labor union in 2030? [Labor Unions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_union), which once held significant influence in American politics and business, have been declining in membership. In 1954, the percentage of employed Americans ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 12.0 percentage of American workers will be represented by a labor union in 2030? [Labor Unions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_union), which once held significant influence in American politics and business, have been declining in membership. In 1954, the percentage of employed Americans ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
In what percentage of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?
Keyword: 66.9
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 66.9% of US States will grant Casey-era abortion rights on May 1, 2026? On May 2, 2022, [POLITICO](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a living human will first reach a distance of one light year from Earth by 2132? A [light-year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light-year) is a large unit of length used to express astronomical distances, and is equivalent to about 9.46 trillion kilometres, or 5.88 trillion miles.
The most dista... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Windows 11 market share will exceed Windows 10's according to the Steam Hardware and Software Survey by Apr 25, 2024? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a living human will first reach a distance of one light year from Earth by 2132? A [light-year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light-year) is a large unit of length used to express astronomical distances, and is equivalent to about 9.46 trillion kilometres, or 5.88 trillion miles.
The most dista... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Democratic Party nominee will win 308 Electoral College votes in the 2024 presidential election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an original, wholly AI-generated feature film will rank #1 on a popular streaming service by Apr 2028? As of 2022, generative artificial intelligence models have demonstrated synthesis of [audio](https://openai.com/blog/jukebox/), [images](https://openai.com/dall-e-2/), and [text](https://beta.o... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Democratic Party nominee will win 308 Electoral College votes in the 2024 presidential election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index for January 2025 will be 264? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index for January 2025 will be 264? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index for January 2025 will be 264? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Republican Party nominee will win 305 Electoral College votes in the 2024 presidential election? To win the Presidency of the United States, a candidate must obtain 270 [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College) votes out of a potential 538.
The larg... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be at least 500 million Americans by Not ≤ 2121? [One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020.
One Billion Americans ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be at least 500 million Americans by Not ≤ 2121? [One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020.
One Billion Americans ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
In what percentage of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?
Keyword: 66.9
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 66.9% of US States will grant Casey-era abortion rights on May 1, 2026? On May 2, 2022, [POLITICO](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Democratic Party nominee will win 308 Electoral College votes in the 2024 presidential election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Republican Party nominee will win 305 Electoral College votes in the 2024 presidential election? To win the Presidency of the United States, a candidate must obtain 270 [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College) votes out of a potential 538.
The larg... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report will be 68.8 in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an original, wholly AI-generated feature film will rank #1 on a popular streaming service by Apr 2028? As of 2022, generative artificial intelligence models have demonstrated synthesis of [audio](https://openai.com/blog/jukebox/), [images](https://openai.com/dall-e-2/), and [text](https://beta.o... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be at least 500 million Americans by Not ≤ 2121? [One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020.
One Billion Americans ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an original, wholly AI-generated feature film will rank #1 on a popular streaming service by Apr 2028? As of 2022, generative artificial intelligence models have demonstrated synthesis of [audio](https://openai.com/blog/jukebox/), [images](https://openai.com/dall-e-2/), and [text](https://beta.o... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report will be 68.8 in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next landslide presidential election will happen in the United States by 2041? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Republican Party nominee will win 305 Electoral College votes in the 2024 presidential election? To win the Presidency of the United States, a candidate must obtain 270 [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College) votes out of a potential 538.
The larg... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next landslide presidential election will happen in the United States by 2041? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies will be 4.24k billion USD at the start of 2027? This is a redone version of [the same question for 2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/) but with a longer runtime and a higher maximum.
[Coinmarketc... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next landslide presidential election will happen in the United States by 2041? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies will be 4.24k billion USD at the start of 2027? This is a redone version of [the same question for 2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/) but with a longer runtime and a higher maximum.
[Coinmarketc... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies will be 4.24k billion USD at the start of 2027? This is a redone version of [the same question for 2025](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/) but with a longer runtime and a higher maximum.
[Coinmarketc... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Hang Seng Index will be 36.9k on January 1st 2030? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hang_Seng_Index),
> The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is a freefloat-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted stock-market index in Hong Kong. It is used to record and monitor daily changes of the large... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report will be 68.8 in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the SSE Index will be 4.76k on January 1, 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the SSE Index will be 4.76k on January 1, 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Hang Seng Index will be 36.9k on January 1st 2030? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hang_Seng_Index),
> The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is a freefloat-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted stock-market index in Hong Kong. It is used to record and monitor daily changes of the large... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the SSE Index will be 4.76k on January 1, 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Hang Seng Index will be 36.9k on January 1st 2030? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hang_Seng_Index),
> The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is a freefloat-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted stock-market index in Hong Kong. It is used to record and monitor daily changes of the large... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that martial law will be lifted in at least 3/4 of Ukraine by Apr 2026? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that martial law will be lifted in at least 3/4 of Ukraine by Apr 2026? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that world energy consumption will first exceed 130% of every prior year in 2044? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that martial law will be lifted in at least 3/4 of Ukraine by Apr 2026? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a publicly traded company will have a market cap of at least $5 trillion USD by 2032? [Market capitalization](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/market-capitalization-defined/), or "market cap", is the aggregate market value of a company represented in a dollar amount.
The formula is: [Mark... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 4.14% in the following years? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Re... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 4.14% in the following years? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Re... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 4.14% in the following years? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Re... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a publicly traded company will have a market cap of at least $5 trillion USD by 2032? [Market capitalization](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/market-capitalization-defined/), or "market cap", is the aggregate market value of a company represented in a dollar amount.
The formula is: [Mark... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that world energy consumption will first exceed 130% of every prior year in 2044? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a publicly traded company will have a market cap of at least $5 trillion USD by 2032? [Market capitalization](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/market-capitalization-defined/), or "market cap", is the aggregate market value of a company represented in a dollar amount.
The formula is: [Mark... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that California's High-Speed Rail will be open for service between San Francisco and Anaheim by 2049? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_High-Speed_Rail),
> California High-Speed Rail (CAHSR or CHSR) is a publicly funded high-speed rail system under construction in the U.S. st... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that California's High-Speed Rail will be open for service between San Francisco and Anaheim by 2049? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_High-Speed_Rail),
> California High-Speed Rail (CAHSR or CHSR) is a publicly funded high-speed rail system under construction in the U.S. st... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that world energy consumption will first exceed 130% of every prior year in 2044? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what is the chance that the fastest one will have an average speed of 1.33 c (> 1)? *This is a companion question to [Fastest von Neumann probe launched by 2200](https://www.metaculus... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what is the chance that the fastest one will have an average speed of 1.33 c (> 1)? *This is a companion question to [Fastest von Neumann probe launched by 2200](https://www.metaculus... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what is the chance that the fastest one will have an average speed of 1.33 c (> 1)? *This is a companion question to [Fastest von Neumann probe launched by 2200](https://www.metaculus... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best available GPU on the following dates will have an average top price performance of 337 G3D Mark /$? <small>
This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/" target="_blank">Forecasting AI Progress Tournament</a>. Yo... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that California's High-Speed Rail will be open for service between San Francisco and Anaheim by 2049? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_High-Speed_Rail),
> California High-Speed Rail (CAHSR or CHSR) is a publicly funded high-speed rail system under construction in the U.S. st... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best available GPU on the following dates will have an average top price performance of 337 G3D Mark /$? <small>
This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/" target="_blank">Forecasting AI Progress Tournament</a>. Yo... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each of these steps will not happen in Ukraine's EU accession process by June 29, 2024? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.34 cities in a country will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at least one of... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.34 cities in a country will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at least one of... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best available GPU on the following dates will have an average top price performance of 337 G3D Mark /$? <small>
This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/" target="_blank">Forecasting AI Progress Tournament</a>. Yo... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.34 cities in a country will be offensively attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030? For each of the following countries, the option will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are no offensive nuclear detonations in that country between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030. If there is at least one of... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each of these steps will not happen in Ukraine's EU accession process by June 29, 2024? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each of these steps will not happen in Ukraine's EU accession process by June 29, 2024? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a handheld and portable genomic sequencing device that costs <$250 (2021 USD) by Dec 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtakes Omicron as the dominant variant globally before January 1, 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the US FDA and CDC will recommend at least 15% of the US population to receive SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses by December 31, 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a handheld and portable genomic sequencing device that costs <$250 (2021 USD) by Dec 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtakes Omicron as the dominant variant globally before January 1, 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 8.73 high-risk laboratory biosecurity incidents will occur between 2022 and 2026 (inclusive)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtakes Omicron as the dominant variant globally before January 1, 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that negotiations for Ukraine's EU accession process will be initiated by May 17, 2024? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukra... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each of these steps in Ukraine's EU accession process will happen by 2035? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukraine-join... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that negotiations for Ukraine's EU accession process will be initiated by May 17, 2024? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukra... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that negotiations for Ukraine's EU accession process will be initiated by May 17, 2024? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukra... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the US FDA and CDC will recommend at least 15% of the US population to receive SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses by December 31, 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
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