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What is the chance that self-driving taxis will be available to Metaculus users by Jul 2029? A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car ([SAE automation level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#SAE_classification) 4 or ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that self-driving car autonomy at level 5 will be developed and commercially available by 2038? Chris Chin of [The Drive](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen) gives a quick summary of the [Society of Automotive Engineers'](https://en... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2100 will occur by 2037? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/)
* [Will a nuclear weapon be de... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that self-driving car autonomy at level 5 will be developed and commercially available by 2038? Chris Chin of [The Drive](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen) gives a quick summary of the [Society of Automotive Engineers'](https://en... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US 2024 budget for the CDC's new Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics will be 89.2M? The US Congress is responsible for the US federal government's [budget](https://www.usa.gov/budget). Congress usually passes budgets annually, with each fiscal year running from October 1 to Septe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2100 will occur by 2037? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/)
* [Will a nuclear weapon be de... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers will be 33.3% in the following dates? In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US FY 2024 budget for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) will be 50% of the total budget? The US Congress is responsible for the federal government's budget. It usually passes budgets on a yearly basis, with each fiscal year running from October 1 of one calen... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that self-driving car autonomy at level 5 will be developed and commercially available by 2038? Chris Chin of [The Drive](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen) gives a quick summary of the [Society of Automotive Engineers'](https://en... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US FY 2024 budget for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) will be 50% of the total budget? The US Congress is responsible for the federal government's budget. It usually passes budgets on a yearly basis, with each fiscal year running from October 1 of one calen... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US 2024 budget for the CDC's new Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics will be 89.2M? The US Congress is responsible for the US federal government's [budget](https://www.usa.gov/budget). Congress usually passes budgets annually, with each fiscal year running from October 1 to Septe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US FY 2024 budget for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) will be 50% of the total budget? The US Congress is responsible for the federal government's budget. It usually passes budgets on a yearly basis, with each fiscal year running from October 1 of one calen... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US 2024 budget for the CDC's new Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics will be 89.2M? The US Congress is responsible for the US federal government's [budget](https://www.usa.gov/budget). Congress usually passes budgets annually, with each fiscal year running from October 1 to Septe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an ML model will achieve 90% of human-crowd performance on Autocast by Nov 2026? Recently, [Zou et al., 2022](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.15474.pdf) introduced Autocast:
> we introduce Autocast, a new dataset for measuring ML models' forecasting ability. Autocast includes thousands of forecastin... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an ML model will achieve 90% of human-crowd performance on Autocast by Nov 2026? Recently, [Zou et al., 2022](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.15474.pdf) introduced Autocast:
> we introduce Autocast, a new dataset for measuring ML models' forecasting ability. Autocast includes thousands of forecastin... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an ML model will achieve 90% of human-crowd performance on Autocast by Nov 2026? Recently, [Zou et al., 2022](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.15474.pdf) introduced Autocast:
> we introduce Autocast, a new dataset for measuring ML models' forecasting ability. Autocast includes thousands of forecastin... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will be capable of getting a perfect score on the Putnam Mathematical Competition by 2041? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Lowell_Putnam_Mathematical_Competition),
> The William Lowell Putnam Mathematical Competition, often abbreviated to Putnam Competition, is an annu... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a new pandemic before 2032, and if so, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved treatment? A key part of the response to the [next pandemic caused by a novel pathogen](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11164/25m-killed... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will be capable of getting a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition by 2038? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikl%C3%B3s_Schweitzer_Competition),
> The Miklós Schweitzer Competition is an annual Hungarian mathematics competition for university undergraduates, estab... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will be capable of getting a perfect score on the Putnam Mathematical Competition by 2041? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Lowell_Putnam_Mathematical_Competition),
> The William Lowell Putnam Mathematical Competition, often abbreviated to Putnam Competition, is an annu... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will be capable of getting a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition by 2038? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikl%C3%B3s_Schweitzer_Competition),
> The Miklós Schweitzer Competition is an annual Hungarian mathematics competition for university undergraduates, estab... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a new pandemic before 2032, and if so, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved treatment? A key part of the response to the [next pandemic caused by a novel pathogen](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11164/25m-killed... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a new pandemic before 2032, and if so, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved treatment? A key part of the response to the [next pandemic caused by a novel pathogen](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11164/25m-killed... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will be capable of getting a perfect score on the Putnam Mathematical Competition by 2041? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Lowell_Putnam_Mathematical_Competition),
> The William Lowell Putnam Mathematical Competition, often abbreviated to Putnam Competition, is an annu... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will be capable of getting a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition by 2038? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikl%C3%B3s_Schweitzer_Competition),
> The Miklós Schweitzer Competition is an annual Hungarian mathematics competition for university undergraduates, estab... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset will be 90.74% on the following dates? The MATH dataset is a dataset of challenging high school mathematics problems constructed by [Hendrycks et al. (2021)](https://github.com/hendrycks/math). Hypermind forecasters were commissioned to predic... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset will be 90.74% on the following dates? The MATH dataset is a dataset of challenging high school mathematics problems constructed by [Hendrycks et al. (2021)](https://github.com/hendrycks/math). Hypermind forecasters were commissioned to predic... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset will be 94.05% on the following dates? The Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) dataset is a dataset of high school, college, and professional multiple choice exams that test expert subject knowledge. It was constructed by... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset will be 94.05% on the following dates? The Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) dataset is a dataset of high school, college, and professional multiple choice exams that test expert subject knowledge. It was constructed by... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset will be 90.74% on the following dates? The MATH dataset is a dataset of challenging high school mathematics problems constructed by [Hendrycks et al. (2021)](https://github.com/hendrycks/math). Hypermind forecasters were commissioned to predic... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first AI-generated book will be on the New York Times Best Seller list by 2039? *The New York Times* Best Seller list is the most important list of best-selling books in the United States. The method for generating the list is a trade secret and is not mathematically objective. It is unknown... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 4.14% in the following years (2025)? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Fed... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first AI-generated book will be on the New York Times Best Seller list by 2039? *The New York Times* Best Seller list is the most important list of best-selling books in the United States. The method for generating the list is a trade secret and is not mathematically objective. It is unknown... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 4.14% in the following years (2025)? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Fed... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset will be 94.05% on the following dates? The Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) dataset is a dataset of high school, college, and professional multiple choice exams that test expert subject knowledge. It was constructed by... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first AI-generated book will be on the New York Times Best Seller list by 2039? *The New York Times* Best Seller list is the most important list of best-selling books in the United States. The method for generating the list is a trade secret and is not mathematically objective. It is unknown... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 3.53% in the year 2027? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 2.45% in the year 2030? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 2.45% in the year 2030? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 3.53% in the year 2027? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 4.91% in the year 2035? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 3.53% in the year 2027? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 4.91% in the year 2035? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be less than 0% in the year 2040? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal R... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 1.02% in the year 2050? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 1.02% in the year 2050? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset will be 94.86% on June 30, 2024? The MATH dataset is a dataset of challenging high school mathematics problems constructed by [Hendrycks et al. (2021)](https://github.com/hendrycks/math). Hypermind forecasters were commissioned to predict stat... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 1.02% in the year 2050? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be less than 0% in the year 2040? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal R... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 4.14% in the following years (2025)? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Fed... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset will be 94.86% on June 30, 2024? The MATH dataset is a dataset of challenging high school mathematics problems constructed by [Hendrycks et al. (2021)](https://github.com/hendrycks/math). Hypermind forecasters were commissioned to predict stat... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset will be 98.40% on June 30, 2025? The MATH dataset is a dataset of challenging high school mathematics problems constructed by [Hendrycks et al. (2021)](https://github.com/hendrycks/math). Hypermind forecasters were commissioned to predict state-of... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 2.45% in the year 2030? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset will be 98.40% on June 30, 2025? The MATH dataset is a dataset of challenging high school mathematics problems constructed by [Hendrycks et al. (2021)](https://github.com/hendrycks/math). Hypermind forecasters were commissioned to predict state-of... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be 4.91% in the year 2035? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset will be 94.86% on June 30, 2024? The MATH dataset is a dataset of challenging high school mathematics problems constructed by [Hendrycks et al. (2021)](https://github.com/hendrycks/math). Hypermind forecasters were commissioned to predict stat... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset will be 98.40% on June 30, 2025? The MATH dataset is a dataset of challenging high school mathematics problems constructed by [Hendrycks et al. (2021)](https://github.com/hendrycks/math). Hypermind forecasters were commissioned to predict state-of... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset will be 89.52% on June 30, 2024? The Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) dataset is a dataset of high school, college, and professional multiple choice exams that test expert subject knowledge. It was constructed by [Hend... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset will be 89.52% on June 30, 2024? The Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) dataset is a dataset of high school, college, and professional multiple choice exams that test expert subject knowledge. It was constructed by [Hend... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US effective fed funds rate will be less than 0% in the year 2040? The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e.g. inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal R... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset will be 97.37% on June 30, 2025? The Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) dataset is a dataset of high school, college, and professional multiple choice exams that test expert subject knowledge. It was constructed by [Hend... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset will be 97.37% on June 30, 2025? The Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) dataset is a dataset of high school, college, and professional multiple choice exams that test expert subject knowledge. It was constructed by [Hend... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset will be 89.52% on June 30, 2024? The Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) dataset is a dataset of high school, college, and professional multiple choice exams that test expert subject knowledge. It was constructed by [Hend... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US will be 3.52 on the following dates? The US has seen record high prices of gasoline in 2022, reaching $5.00 per gallon [in June](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW). However, when adjusting for inflation, June's gas prices are compa... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US will be 3.52 on the following dates? The US has seen record high prices of gasoline in 2022, reaching $5.00 per gallon [in June](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW). However, when adjusting for inflation, June's gas prices are compa... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US will be 3.52 on the following dates? The US has seen record high prices of gasoline in 2022, reaching $5.00 per gallon [in June](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW). However, when adjusting for inflation, June's gas prices are compa... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US will be 5.16 on April 2026? The US has seen record high prices of gasoline in 2022, reaching $5.00 per gallon [in June](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW). However, when adjusting for inflation, June's gas prices are comparable to ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US will be 3.52 on April 2024? The US has seen record high prices of gasoline in 2022, reaching $5.00 per gallon [in June](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW). However, when adjusting for inflation, June's gas prices are comparable to ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 41.5M philanthropic funding will go to nuclear issues in 2025? The field of nuclear security is experiencing a major shake-up. Last summer, the MacArthur Foundation announced that it was withdrawing, which some observers called ["a big blow'](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/19/washington-a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US will be 3.52 on April 2024? The US has seen record high prices of gasoline in 2022, reaching $5.00 per gallon [in June](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW). However, when adjusting for inflation, June's gas prices are comparable to ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset will be 97.37% on June 30, 2025? The Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) dataset is a dataset of high school, college, and professional multiple choice exams that test expert subject knowledge. It was constructed by [Hend... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US will be 5.16 on April 2026? The US has seen record high prices of gasoline in 2022, reaching $5.00 per gallon [in June](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW). However, when adjusting for inflation, June's gas prices are comparable to ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 41.5M philanthropic funding will go to nuclear issues in 2025? The field of nuclear security is experiencing a major shake-up. Last summer, the MacArthur Foundation announced that it was withdrawing, which some observers called ["a big blow'](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/19/washington-a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US will be 3.52 on April 2024? The US has seen record high prices of gasoline in 2022, reaching $5.00 per gallon [in June](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW). However, when adjusting for inflation, June's gas prices are comparable to ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many confirmed children will Elon Musk have by end of 2025?
Keyword: 13.0
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that Elon Musk will have 13.0 confirmed children by end of 2025? Elon Musk is unusual among the super billionaires in having a large number of children. On July 7, 2022 was reported tha... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 41.5M philanthropic funding will go to nuclear issues in 2025? The field of nuclear security is experiencing a major shake-up. Last summer, the MacArthur Foundation announced that it was withdrawing, which some observers called ["a big blow'](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/19/washington-a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US will be 7.53 on April 2030? The US has seen record high prices of gasoline in 2022, reaching $5.00 per gallon [in June](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW). However, when adjusting for inflation, June's gas prices are comparable to ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US will be 5.16 on April 2026? The US has seen record high prices of gasoline in 2022, reaching $5.00 per gallon [in June](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW). However, when adjusting for inflation, June's gas prices are comparable to ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US will be 7.53 on April 2030? The US has seen record high prices of gasoline in 2022, reaching $5.00 per gallon [in June](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW). However, when adjusting for inflation, June's gas prices are comparable to ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy by Apr 2026? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_(game)),
> Diplomacy is an American strategic board game created by Allan B. Calhamer in 1954 and released commercially in the United States in 1959. Its ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy by Apr 2026? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_(game)),
> Diplomacy is an American strategic board game created by Allan B. Calhamer in 1954 and released commercially in the United States in 1959. Its ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US will be 7.53 on April 2030? The US has seen record high prices of gasoline in 2022, reaching $5.00 per gallon [in June](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW). However, when adjusting for inflation, June's gas prices are comparable to ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy by Apr 2026? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_(game)),
> Diplomacy is an American strategic board game created by Allan B. Calhamer in 1954 and released commercially in the United States in 1959. Its ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many confirmed children will Elon Musk have by end of 2025?
Keyword: 13.0
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that Elon Musk will have 13.0 confirmed children by end of 2025? Elon Musk is unusual among the super billionaires in having a large number of children. On July 7, 2022 was reported tha... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will cost 0.638 dollars per month to store 1 TB on S3 Glacier Deep Archive in 2030? Amazon S3 Glacier is a data storage medium that allows consumers to store large amounts of data cheaply on the cloud. From Amazon's page about [S3 Glacier](https://aws.amazon.com/s3/storage-classes/glacier/),
... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will cost 0.638 dollars per month to store 1 TB on S3 Glacier Deep Archive in 2030? Amazon S3 Glacier is a data storage medium that allows consumers to store large amounts of data cheaply on the cloud. From Amazon's page about [S3 Glacier](https://aws.amazon.com/s3/storage-classes/glacier/),
... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test by 2025? The Turing test [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test),
> a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evalu... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test by 2025? The Turing test [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test),
> a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evalu... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 26.20% of Congresspeople will be endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America on January 4th, 2031? The [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.dsausa.org/) is the largest socialist organization in the United States, with over 92,000 members and chapters in all 50 states.
As of July... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test by 2025? The Turing test [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test),
> a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evalu... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that half of world leaders will be women by 2059? From zero in 1978, [the number of women in the position of leader of their country has gone up significantly](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1058345/countries-with-women-highest-position-executive-power-since-1960/). It is still far, though, from... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that it will cost 0.638 dollars per month to store 1 TB on S3 Glacier Deep Archive in 2030? Amazon S3 Glacier is a data storage medium that allows consumers to store large amounts of data cheaply on the cloud. From Amazon's page about [S3 Glacier](https://aws.amazon.com/s3/storage-classes/glacier/),
... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global total fertility rate will be 2.29 in the following years (2025)? The Total Fertility Rate is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) as the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if:
* she were to experience the exact current ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that half of world leaders will be women by 2059? From zero in 1978, [the number of women in the position of leader of their country has gone up significantly](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1058345/countries-with-women-highest-position-executive-power-since-1960/). It is still far, though, from... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 26.20% of Congresspeople will be endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America on January 4th, 2031? The [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.dsausa.org/) is the largest socialist organization in the United States, with over 92,000 members and chapters in all 50 states.
As of July... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global total fertility rate will be 2.17 in the following years? The Total Fertility Rate is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) as the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if:
* she were to experience the exact current age-spe... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global total fertility rate will be 2.17 in the following years? The Total Fertility Rate is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) as the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if:
* she were to experience the exact current age-spe... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that half of world leaders will be women by 2059? From zero in 1978, [the number of women in the position of leader of their country has gone up significantly](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1058345/countries-with-women-highest-position-executive-power-since-1960/). It is still far, though, from... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global total fertility rate will be 2.17 in the following years? The Total Fertility Rate is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) as the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if:
* she were to experience the exact current age-spe... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global total fertility rate will be 2.25 by the year 2030? The Total Fertility Rate is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) as the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if:
* she were to experience the exact current age-specific ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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