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What is the chance that 8.73 high-risk laboratory biosecurity incidents will occur between 2022 and 2026 (inclusive)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each of these steps will happen in Ukraine's EU accession process by 2029? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukraine-join... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a handheld and portable genomic sequencing device that costs <$250 (2021 USD) by Dec 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the US FDA and CDC will recommend at least 15% of the US population to receive SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses by December 31, 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that negotiations will be completed in Ukraine's EU accession process by 2039? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*_x000D_
_x000D_
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)_x000D_
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/question... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that negotiations will be completed in Ukraine's EU accession process by 2039? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*_x000D_
_x000D_
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)_x000D_
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/question... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each of these steps will happen in Ukraine's EU accession process by 2029? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukraine-join... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each of these steps in Ukraine's EU accession process will happen by 2035? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukraine-join... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that negotiations will be completed in Ukraine's EU accession process by 2039? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*_x000D_
_x000D_
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)_x000D_
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/question... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each of these steps will happen in Ukraine's EU accession process by 2029? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukraine-join... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each of these steps in Ukraine's EU accession process will happen by 2035? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukraine-join... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each of these steps in Ukraine's EU accession process will happen by 2034? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukraine-join... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each of these steps in Ukraine's EU accession process will happen by 2034? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukraine-join... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ukraine's EU accession process will have each of these steps completed by Jun 2035? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukr... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each of these steps in Ukraine's EU accession process will not happen before 2040? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukra... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ukraine's EU accession process will have each of these steps completed by Jun 2035? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukr... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each of these steps in Ukraine's EU accession process will not happen before 2040? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukra... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each of these steps in Ukraine's EU accession process will happen by 2034? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukraine-join... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will first mint a coin worth $1 billion or more before January 2033? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 8.73 high-risk laboratory biosecurity incidents will occur between 2022 and 2026 (inclusive)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ukraine's EU accession process will have each of these steps completed by Jun 2035? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukr... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will first mint a coin worth $1 billion or more before January 2033? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each of these steps in Ukraine's EU accession process will not happen before 2040? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Ukraine join the EU before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-before-2024/)
* [...before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukra... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will first mint a coin worth $1 billion or more before January 2033? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report will be 68.8 in the year 2025? [The Freedom in The World Report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule) is an annual publication by [Freedom House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_House), a U... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report will be 68.8 in the year 2025? [The Freedom in The World Report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule) is an annual publication by [Freedom House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_House), a U... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report will be 68.8 in the year 2025? [The Freedom in The World Report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule) is an annual publication by [Freedom House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_House), a U... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report will be 60.1 in 2026? [The Freedom in The World Report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule) is an annual publication by [Freedom House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_House), a US non-pro... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report will be 71.4 for the year 2027? [The Freedom in The World Report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule) is an annual publication by [Freedom House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_House), a ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report will be 60.1 in 2026? [The Freedom in The World Report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule) is an annual publication by [Freedom House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_House), a US non-pro... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report will be 64.2 by 2030? [The Freedom in The World Report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule) is an annual publication by [Freedom House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_House), a US non-pro... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report will be 60.1 in 2026? [The Freedom in The World Report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule) is an annual publication by [Freedom House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_House), a US non-pro... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report will be 64.2 by 2030? [The Freedom in The World Report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule) is an annual publication by [Freedom House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_House), a US non-pro... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual US unemployment rate will be 6.08% in 2027? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 13.90 share of Africa's total primary energy will come from nuclear (fission & fusion) in 2050? In 2020, nuclear energy only accounted 0.74% of Africa's total primary energy ([source](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/nuclear-primary-energy?tab=chart&country=~Africa)).
By comparison, nuclear a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual US unemployment rate will be 6.08% in 2027? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report will be 71.4 for the year 2027? [The Freedom in The World Report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule) is an annual publication by [Freedom House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_House), a ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual US unemployment rate will be 6.08% in 2027? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report will be 64.2 by 2030? [The Freedom in The World Report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule) is an annual publication by [Freedom House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_House), a US non-pro... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 13.90 share of Africa's total primary energy will come from nuclear (fission & fusion) in 2050? In 2020, nuclear energy only accounted 0.74% of Africa's total primary energy ([source](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/nuclear-primary-energy?tab=chart&country=~Africa)).
By comparison, nuclear a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a whole human genome in 2031 will be 77.0 USD in 2021? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [What will be the cost of sequencing a whole human genome in 2026 (in 2021 USD)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8909/human-genome-sequencing-cost-in-2026/) [*not part of the Bi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report will be 71.4 for the year 2027? [The Freedom in The World Report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule) is an annual publication by [Freedom House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_House), a ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 13.90 share of Africa's total primary energy will come from nuclear (fission & fusion) in 2050? In 2020, nuclear energy only accounted 0.74% of Africa's total primary energy ([source](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/nuclear-primary-energy?tab=chart&country=~Africa)).
By comparison, nuclear a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a whole human genome in 2031 will be 77.0 USD in 2021? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [What will be the cost of sequencing a whole human genome in 2026 (in 2021 USD)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8909/human-genome-sequencing-cost-in-2026/) [*not part of the Bi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a whole human genome in 2031 will be 77.0 USD in 2021? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [What will be the cost of sequencing a whole human genome in 2026 (in 2021 USD)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8909/human-genome-sequencing-cost-in-2026/) [*not part of the Bi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will have 50% share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance in the TOP500 list on the following dates? <small>
This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/" target="_blank">Forecasting AI Progres... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet will achieve a top-1 accuracy of 91.94%? <small>
This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/" target="_blank">Forecasting AI Progress Tournament</a>. Y... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates?
Keyword: 17.4
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the average degree of automation for key US professions will change by 75% from December 2020 to the following dates? <small>... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet will achieve a top-1 accuracy of 91.94%? <small>
This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/" target="_blank">Forecasting AI Progress Tournament</a>. Y... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Jeff Bezos will first land on the moon by 2038? [Jeffrey Preston Bezos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos), born January 12, 1964, is an American entrepreneur, media proprietor, investor, computer engineer, and commercial astronaut. He is the founder, executive chairman and former preside... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Jeff Bezos will first land on the moon by 2038? [Jeffrey Preston Bezos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos), born January 12, 1964, is an American entrepreneur, media proprietor, investor, computer engineer, and commercial astronaut. He is the founder, executive chairman and former preside... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates?
Keyword: 17.4
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the average degree of automation for key US professions will change by 75% from December 2020 to the following dates? <small>... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Jeff Bezos will first land on the moon by 2038? [Jeffrey Preston Bezos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos), born January 12, 1964, is an American entrepreneur, media proprietor, investor, computer engineer, and commercial astronaut. He is the founder, executive chairman and former preside... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet will achieve a top-1 accuracy of 91.94%? <small>
This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/" target="_blank">Forecasting AI Progress Tournament</a>. Y... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least one licensed vaccine will be available for 24.1 of the 26 human-infecting virus families before 2032? There are 26 known viral families that are implicated in human disease, according to [Siegel et. al (2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7151951/). The extent to which t... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will have 50% share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance in the TOP500 list on the following dates? <small>
This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/" target="_blank">Forecasting AI Progres... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least one licensed vaccine will be available for 24.1 of the 26 human-infecting virus families before 2032? There are 26 known viral families that are implicated in human disease, according to [Siegel et. al (2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7151951/). The extent to which t... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 10.2k epidemiologist jobs in the US by 2030? The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [has estimated](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-science/epidemiologists.htm) that in 2020 there were 7,800 [epidemiologist](https://stats.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-scien... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 10.2k epidemiologist jobs in the US by 2030? The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [has estimated](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-science/epidemiologists.htm) that in 2020 there were 7,800 [epidemiologist](https://stats.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-scien... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 36.9k US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive) if a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine is granted? [Betacoronavirus](https://viralzone.expasy.org/764?outline=all_by_species) is a genus of the virus family Coronaviridae. The known human-i... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 10.2k epidemiologist jobs in the US by 2030? The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [has estimated](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-science/epidemiologists.htm) that in 2020 there were 7,800 [epidemiologist](https://stats.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-scien... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that at least one licensed vaccine will be available for 24.1 of the 26 human-infecting virus families before 2032? There are 26 known viral families that are implicated in human disease, according to [Siegel et. al (2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7151951/). The extent to which t... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates?
Keyword: 17.4
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the average degree of automation for key US professions will change by 75% from December 2020 to the following dates? <small>... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 36.9k US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive) if a CDC authorization is granted for a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine? [Betacoronavirus](https://viralzone.expasy.org/764?outline=all_by_species) is a genus of the virus family Coronaviridae. The known human-... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) will be 14.35 in these years? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11545/)
* [Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11546/)
* [Minimum Antarcti... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 36.9k US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive) if a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine is granted? [Betacoronavirus](https://viralzone.expasy.org/764?outline=all_by_species) is a genus of the virus family Coronaviridae. The known human-i... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 36.9k US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive) if a CDC authorization is granted for a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine? [Betacoronavirus](https://viralzone.expasy.org/764?outline=all_by_species) is a genus of the virus family Coronaviridae. The known human-... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) will be 14.35 in these years? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11545/)
* [Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11546/)
* [Minimum Antarcti... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 36.9k US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive) if a CDC authorization is granted for a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine? [Betacoronavirus](https://viralzone.expasy.org/764?outline=all_by_species) is a genus of the virus family Coronaviridae. The known human-... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 64.4k US deaths attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive) if a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine is not granted? [Betacoronavirus](https://viralzone.expasy.org/764?outline=all_by_species) is a genus of the virus family Coronaviridae. The kno... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum Antartic sea ice extent will be 18.26 in these years? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*_x000D_
_x000D_
* [Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11544/)_x000D_
* [Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11545/)_x000D_
* [Minimum... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum arctic sea ice extent will be 3.41 in the following years? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11544/)
* [Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11546/)
* [Minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Ex... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) will be 14.35 in these years? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11545/)
* [Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11546/)
* [Minimum Antarcti... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 36.9k US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive) if a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine is granted? [Betacoronavirus](https://viralzone.expasy.org/764?outline=all_by_species) is a genus of the virus family Coronaviridae. The known human-i... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) will be 2.72 in these years? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11544/)
* [Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11545/)
* [Maximum Antarctic ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 64.4k US deaths attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive) if a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine is not granted? [Betacoronavirus](https://viralzone.expasy.org/764?outline=all_by_species) is a genus of the virus family Coronaviridae. The kno... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum arctic sea ice extent will be 3.41 in the following years? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11544/)
* [Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11546/)
* [Minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Ex... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) will be 2.72 in these years? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11544/)
* [Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11545/)
* [Maximum Antarctic ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) will be 2.72 in these years? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11544/)
* [Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11545/)
* [Maximum Antarctic ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each party will win 379 seats in the next UK general election? There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election):
<ul><li>The Conservative Party won 365 seats</li>
<li>The Labour Party won 202 seat... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum Antartic sea ice extent will be 18.26 in these years? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*_x000D_
_x000D_
* [Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11544/)_x000D_
* [Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11545/)_x000D_
* [Minimum... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each party will win 379 seats in the next UK general election? There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election):
<ul><li>The Conservative Party won 365 seats</li>
<li>The Labour Party won 202 seat... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the minimum arctic sea ice extent will be 3.41 in the following years? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11544/)
* [Maximum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11546/)
* [Minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Ex... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum Antartic sea ice extent will be 18.26 in these years? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*_x000D_
_x000D_
* [Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11544/)_x000D_
* [Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11545/)_x000D_
* [Minimum... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each party will win 379 seats in the next UK general election? There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election):
<ul><li>The Conservative Party won 365 seats</li>
<li>The Labour Party won 202 seat... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers will be 33.3% in the following dates? In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.194 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? [Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities an... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates will be 47.7M? Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 201... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates will be 47.7M? Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 201... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.194 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? [Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities an... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what is the chance that 0.194 proportion of those detonations will be countervalue? [Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities an... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 will be 11.4 by the following dates? [Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic sp... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers will be 33.3% in the following dates? In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2100 will occur by 2037? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/)
* [Will a nuclear weapon be de... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 will be 11.4 by the following dates? [Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic sp... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates will be 47.7M? Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 201... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 will be 11.4 by the following dates? [Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic sp... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 64.4k US deaths attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive) if a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine is not granted? [Betacoronavirus](https://viralzone.expasy.org/764?outline=all_by_species) is a genus of the virus family Coronaviridae. The kno... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that self-driving taxis will be available to Metaculus users by Jul 2029? A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car ([SAE automation level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#SAE_classification) 4 or ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that self-driving taxis will be available to Metaculus users by Jul 2029? A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car ([SAE automation level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#SAE_classification) 4 or ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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