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Based on SCOTUS' ruling on racial preferences in university admissions, what is the chance that 7.40 percent of international students at US universities will be from Europe in 2028? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX will be taken public by 2033? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 50.0% of students enrolled in higher education will be White in 2028, depending on SCOTUS' ruling on racial preferences in university admissions? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Based on SCOTUS' ruling on racial preferences in university admissions, what is the chance that 7.40 percent of international students at US universities will be from Europe in 2028? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Based on SCOTUS' ruling on racial preferences in university admissions, what is the chance that 7.40 percent of international students at US universities will be from Europe in 2028? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 75% of international students at US universities will be from Asia in 2028, depending on SCOTUS' ruling on racial preferences in university admissions? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 75% of international students at US universities will be from Asia in 2028, depending on SCOTUS' ruling on racial preferences in university admissions? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 50% of students enrolled in higher education will be international students in 2028, depending on SCOTUS' ruling on racial preferences in university admissions? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that less than 0.1 GW of total space-based solar PV will be installed by the following years? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that less than 0.1 GW of total space-based solar PV will be installed by the following years? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 21.1% of US residents enrolled in higher education will be Hispanic in 2028, depending on SCOTUS' ruling on racial preferences in university admissions? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 50% of students enrolled in higher education will be international students in 2028, depending on SCOTUS' ruling on racial preferences in university admissions? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6.43% of US residents enrolled in higher education will be Asian in 2028, depending on SCOTUS' ruling on racial preferences in university admissions? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 50% of students enrolled in higher education will be international students in 2028, depending on SCOTUS' ruling on racial preferences in university admissions? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SpaceX will be taken public by 2033? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6.43% of US residents enrolled in higher education will be Asian in 2028, depending on SCOTUS' ruling on racial preferences in university admissions? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 35.2 GW of total space-based solar PV will be installed by 2040? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.883 total space based solar PV (in GW) will be installed by the following years? (2030) | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that less than 0.1 GW of total space-based solar PV will be installed by 2050? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 35.2 GW of total space-based solar PV will be installed by 2040? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.883 total space based solar PV (in GW) will be installed by the following years? (2030) | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that less than 0.1 GW of total space-based solar PV will be installed by the following years? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that less than 0.1 GW of total space-based solar PV will be installed by 2050? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Total Fertility Rate in the United States will reach 2.1 (the level conventionally associated with replacement fertility) by 2072? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Total Fertility Rate in the United States will reach 2.1 (the level conventionally associated with replacement fertility) by 2072? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 0.883 total space based solar PV (in GW) will be installed by the following years? (2030) | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Total Fertility Rate in the United States will reach 2.1 (the level conventionally associated with replacement fertility) by 2072? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems will be 50.5% from 2022 to 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems will be 50.5% from 2022 to 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems will be 50.5% from 2022 to 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems will be 63.0% from 2022 to 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 35.2 GW of total space-based solar PV will be installed by 2040? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems will be 87.5% from 2022 to 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems will be 63.0% from 2022 to 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems will be 87.5% from 2022 to 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems will be 63.0% from 2022 to 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 531 GW of total space-based solar PV will be installed by 2060? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 531 GW of total space-based solar PV will be installed by 2060? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 531 GW of total space-based solar PV will be installed by 2060? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the 75th Percentile ACT score for new students admitted to all colleges in 2028 will be 27.03? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the 75th Percentile ACT score for new students admitted to all colleges in 2028 will be 27.03? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the 75th Percentile ACT score for new students admitted to all colleges in 2028 will be 27.03? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the 25th Percentile ACT score for new students admitted to all colleges in 2028 will be 20.00? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US life expectancy will be 78.30 in 2023? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US life expectancy will be 78.30 in 2023? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that artificial intelligence will be mentioned in the constitution of a major sovereign country by 2039? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that artificial intelligence will be mentioned in the constitution of a major sovereign country by 2039? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US life expectancy will be 78.30 in 2023? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the 25th Percentile ACT score for new students admitted to all colleges in 2028 will be 20.00? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the 25th Percentile ACT score for new students admitted to all colleges in 2028 will be 20.00? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.63M predictions will have been made on Metaculus by October 1, 2025? As of June 6, 2022, 915,386 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015. This question will resolve as the cumulative number of predictions made on Metaculus on all public questions, on all public... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.63M predictions will have been made on Metaculus by October 1, 2025? As of June 6, 2022, 915,386 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015. This question will resolve as the cumulative number of predictions made on Metaculus on all public questions, on all public... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems will be 87.5% from 2022 to 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.63M predictions will have been made on Metaculus by October 1, 2025? As of June 6, 2022, 915,386 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015. This question will resolve as the cumulative number of predictions made on Metaculus on all public questions, on all public... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.92M predictions will have been made on Metaculus by October 1, 2030? As of June 6, 2022, 915,386 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015. This question will resolve as the cumulative number of predictions made on Metaculus on all public questions, on all public... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States Dollar will represent 22.8% of all currency reserves as of Q1 2050? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will the USD fraction of allocated global foreign exchange currencies be below 50% before the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14017/usd-foreign-excha... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.92M predictions will have been made on Metaculus by October 1, 2030? As of June 6, 2022, 915,386 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015. This question will resolve as the cumulative number of predictions made on Metaculus on all public questions, on all public... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.92M predictions will have been made on Metaculus by October 1, 2030? As of June 6, 2022, 915,386 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015. This question will resolve as the cumulative number of predictions made on Metaculus on all public questions, on all public... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States Dollar will represent 22.8% of all currency reserves as of Q1 2050? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will the USD fraction of allocated global foreign exchange currencies be below 50% before the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14017/usd-foreign-excha... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that artificial intelligence will be mentioned in the constitution of a major sovereign country by 2039? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States Dollar will represent 22.8% of all currency reserves as of Q1 2050? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will the USD fraction of allocated global foreign exchange currencies be below 50% before the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14017/usd-foreign-excha... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will win a Gold Medal in the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by 2031? The [International Olympiad in Informatics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Olympiad_in_Informatics) is the most prestigious computer science competition for students 20-and-under featuring diffic... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will win a Gold Medal in the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by 2031? The [International Olympiad in Informatics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Olympiad_in_Informatics) is the most prestigious computer science competition for students 20-and-under featuring diffic... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next amendment to the US Constitution will be ratified by 2074? The [United States Constitution](https://uscode.house.gov/static/constitution.pdf) has been [amended 27 times](https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/amendments) since it was signed in 1787.
The [procedures for amendi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next amendment to the US Constitution will be ratified by 2074? The [United States Constitution](https://uscode.house.gov/static/constitution.pdf) has been [amended 27 times](https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/amendments) since it was signed in 1787.
The [procedures for amendi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that UK GDP per capita will be less than 50% of that of the world's leading major economy by 2034? According [to the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true), the UK had GDP per capita of $47,334 in 2021. This was 68% of the level of the USA at $69,... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI will win a Gold Medal in the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by 2031? The [International Olympiad in Informatics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Olympiad_in_Informatics) is the most prestigious computer science competition for students 20-and-under featuring diffic... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that total worldwide nuclear disarmament will occur by Not ≤ 2222? Currently, there are roughly [12,700 nuclear weapons](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) in possession of the nations of the world. This number has decreased substantially since the height of the Cold... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that peak oil production will be reached worldwide by 2021? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/oil-production-by-country?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
[Peak oil is described as the moment at which economically viable ex... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that UK GDP per capita will be less than 50% of that of the world's leading major economy by 2034? According [to the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true), the UK had GDP per capita of $47,334 in 2021. This was 68% of the level of the USA at $69,... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that UK GDP per capita will be less than 50% of that of the world's leading major economy by 2034? According [to the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true), the UK had GDP per capita of $47,334 in 2021. This was 68% of the level of the USA at $69,... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that peak oil production will be reached worldwide by 2021? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/oil-production-by-country?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
[Peak oil is described as the moment at which economically viable ex... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US will be 84.7% in these years? The peak weekly hospitalization rate for Covid-19 in the United States was 459/million on January 19, 2022 according to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cur... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next amendment to the US Constitution will be ratified by 2074? The [United States Constitution](https://uscode.house.gov/static/constitution.pdf) has been [amended 27 times](https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/amendments) since it was signed in 1787.
The [procedures for amendi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US will be 406 in the year 2024? The peak weekly hospitalization rate for Covid-19 in the United States was 459/million on January 19, 2022 according to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cur... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that peak oil production will be reached worldwide by 2021? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/oil-production-by-country?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
[Peak oil is described as the moment at which economically viable ex... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US will be 84.7% in these years? The peak weekly hospitalization rate for Covid-19 in the United States was 459/million on January 19, 2022 according to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cur... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that total worldwide nuclear disarmament will occur by Not ≤ 2222? Currently, there are roughly [12,700 nuclear weapons](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) in possession of the nations of the world. This number has decreased substantially since the height of the Cold... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that total worldwide nuclear disarmament will occur by Not ≤ 2222? Currently, there are roughly [12,700 nuclear weapons](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) in possession of the nations of the world. This number has decreased substantially since the height of the Cold... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US will be 406 in the year 2024? The peak weekly hospitalization rate for Covid-19 in the United States was 459/million on January 19, 2022 according to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cur... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US will be 54.2 in the year 2025? The peak weekly hospitalization rate for Covid-19 in the United States was 459/million on January 19, 2022 according to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cu... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP growth per capita will be 1.98% in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
Gross domestic product (GDP) is [defi... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US will be 84.7% in these years? The peak weekly hospitalization rate for Covid-19 in the United States was 459/million on January 19, 2022 according to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cur... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will yield 166 bushels of corn (maize) per acre of land used to grow corn for human consumption in 2035? Historically, corn (maize) yields per area have significantly increased due to intensification of the production process, and higher yielding and more robust corn cultivars.... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US will be 406 in the year 2024? The peak weekly hospitalization rate for Covid-19 in the United States was 459/million on January 19, 2022 according to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cur... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP growth per capita will be 1.98% in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
Gross domestic product (GDP) is [defi... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US will be 54.2 in the year 2025? The peak weekly hospitalization rate for Covid-19 in the United States was 459/million on January 19, 2022 according to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cu... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP growth per capita will be 3.41% in the year 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
Gross domestic product (GDP) is [defined by... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will yield 166 bushels of corn (maize) per acre of land used to grow corn for human consumption in 2035? Historically, corn (maize) yields per area have significantly increased due to intensification of the production process, and higher yielding and more robust corn cultivars.... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will yield 166 bushels of corn (maize) per acre of land used to grow corn for human consumption in 2035? Historically, corn (maize) yields per area have significantly increased due to intensification of the production process, and higher yielding and more robust corn cultivars.... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP growth per capita will be 3.41% in the year 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
Gross domestic product (GDP) is [defined by... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP growth per capita will be 1.98% in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
Gross domestic product (GDP) is [defi... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP growth per capita will be 3.41% in the year 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
Gross domestic product (GDP) is [defined by... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP growth per capita will be 5.35% in the year 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
Gross domestic product (GDP) is [defined by... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP growth per capita will be 5.35% in the year 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
Gross domestic product (GDP) is [defined by... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP growth per capita will be 8.02% in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
Gross domestic product (GDP) is [defi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP growth per capita will be 5.35% in the year 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
Gross domestic product (GDP) is [defined by... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US will be 54.2 in the year 2025? The peak weekly hospitalization rate for Covid-19 in the United States was 459/million on January 19, 2022 according to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cu... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP growth per capita will be 6.78% in the year 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
Gross domestic product (GDP) is [defined by... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What will be the percentage of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-living-countries-legalized-sex-marriage?stackMode=relative" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
According ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
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