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What is the chance that there will be 5.74k objects launched into space annually in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Over 1,800 object...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that lead exposure will contribute 25% to the total global disease burden (in DALYs) by 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/disease-burden-lead?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Our World in Data [describes the disease...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that lead exposure will contribute 25% to the total global disease burden (in DALYs) by 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/disease-burden-lead?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Our World in Data [describes the disease...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that lead exposure will contribute to 4.99M DALYs of total global disease burden in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/disease-burden-lead?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Our World in Data [describes ...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that lead exposure will contribute to 75% of the total global disease burden (in DALYs) by 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/disease-burden-lead?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Our World in Data [describes the dise...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that lead exposure will contribute to 75% of the total global disease burden (in DALYs) by 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/disease-burden-lead?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Our World in Data [describes the dise...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 2.71k objects launched into space annually in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Over 1,800 object...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 2.71k objects launched into space annually in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Over 1,800 object...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that lead exposure will contribute to 75% of the total global disease burden (in DALYs) by 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/disease-burden-lead?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Our World in Data [describes the dise...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 5.74k objects launched into space annually in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Over 1,800 object...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 2.71k objects launched into space annually in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Over 1,800 object...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that lead exposure will contribute 25% to the total global disease burden (in DALYs) by 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/disease-burden-lead?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Our World in Data [describes the disease...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 19.3k objects launched into space annually by 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Over 1,800 objects were launched...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 104k annual objects launched into space by 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Over 1,800 objects were launched in...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 104k annual objects launched into space by 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Over 1,800 objects were launched in...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 19.3k objects launched into space annually by 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Over 1,800 objects were launched...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 19.3k objects launched into space annually by 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Over 1,800 objects were launched...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 104k annual objects launched into space by 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Over 1,800 objects were launched in...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 will be 3.682 in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-around-the-world?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 198,000 objects launched into space annually in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Over 1,800 obje...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 will be 3.682 in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-around-the-world?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 will be 50% in the year 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-around-the-world?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> 15,00...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 198,000 objects launched into space annually in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Over 1,800 obje...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 will be 50% in the year 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-around-the-world?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> 15,00...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 198,000 objects launched into space annually in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Over 1,800 obje...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global mortality rate for children under the age of 5 will be 2.83% in the year 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-around-the-world?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> 15,000 children ...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 will be 50% in the year 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-around-the-world?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> 15,00...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 will be 3.04 in the year 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-around-the-world?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> 15,0...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global mortality rate for children under the age of 5 will be 2.83% in the year 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-around-the-world?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> 15,000 children ...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 will be 0.610 in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-around-the-world?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.67% of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years (2025)? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total&Select+...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global mortality rate for children under the age of 5 will be 2.83% in the year 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-around-the-world?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> 15,000 children ...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.16% of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total&Select+a+sourc...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.16% of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total&Select+a+sourc...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.16% of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total&Select+a+sourc...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 will be 3.682 in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-around-the-world?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 will be 0.610 in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-around-the-world?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.67% of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years (2025)? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total&Select+...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 will be 3.04 in the year 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-around-the-world?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> 15,0...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.67% of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years (2025)? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total&Select+...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 will be 0.610 in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-around-the-world?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.59% of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years (2032)? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total&Select+...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 18.40 percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years (2052)? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 will be 3.04 in the year 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-around-the-world?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> 15,0...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 18.40 percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years (2052)? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 38.3% of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total&Select+a+sourc...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 38.3% of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total&Select+a+sourc...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 18.40 percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years (2052)? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be 2.03 in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rate-in-conflicts" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> The prevalence of global violence is an impor...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be 2.03 in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rate-in-conflicts" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> The prevalence of global violence is an impor...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.59% of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years (2032)? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total&Select+...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 38.3% of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total&Select+a+sourc...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be 2.03 in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rate-in-conflicts" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> The prevalence of global violence is an impor...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.59% of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years (2032)? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total&Select+...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be 1.29 in the year 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rate-in-conflicts" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> The prevalence of global violence is an important i...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be 1.29 in the year 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rate-in-conflicts" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> The prevalence of global violence is an important i...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be 0.572 in the year 2122? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rate-in-conflicts" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> The prevalence of global violence is an important ...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be 1.12 in the year 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rate-in-conflicts" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> The prevalence of global violence is an important i...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be 1.78 in the year 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rate-in-conflicts" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> The prevalence of global violence is an important i...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be 1.12 in the year 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rate-in-conflicts" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> The prevalence of global violence is an important i...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be 1.78 in the year 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rate-in-conflicts" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> The prevalence of global violence is an important i...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 0.581 fraction of Canadian parliaments to 2050 will lack any party majority? In Canada's Westminster-style system of Parliamentary democracy, a [minority government or "hung parliament"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hung_parliament) is one in which no single party holds a majority of the seats...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be 0.572 in the year 2122? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rate-in-conflicts" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> The prevalence of global violence is an important ...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the FDA will approve the first disease-modifying treatment for Parkinson's disease by 2033? A [disease-modifying treatment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease-modifying_treatment) is a treatment that delays or slows the progression of a disease by targeting its underlying cause. Disease-modif...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 0.581 fraction of Canadian parliaments to 2050 will lack any party majority? In Canada's Westminster-style system of Parliamentary democracy, a [minority government or "hung parliament"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hung_parliament) is one in which no single party holds a majority of the seats...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be 1.29 in the year 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rate-in-conflicts" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> The prevalence of global violence is an important i...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a full human genome in the following years will be 422 times the current cost in 2021 USD? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> A [genome](htt...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a full human genome in the following years will be 422 times the current cost in 2021 USD? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> A [genome](htt...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the FDA will approve the first disease-modifying treatment for Parkinson's disease by 2033? A [disease-modifying treatment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease-modifying_treatment) is a treatment that delays or slows the progression of a disease by targeting its underlying cause. Disease-modif...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the FDA will approve the first disease-modifying treatment for Parkinson's disease by 2033? A [disease-modifying treatment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease-modifying_treatment) is a treatment that delays or slows the progression of a disease by targeting its underlying cause. Disease-modif...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be 1.78 in the year 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rate-in-conflicts" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> The prevalence of global violence is an important i...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 0.581 fraction of Canadian parliaments to 2050 will lack any party majority? In Canada's Westminster-style system of Parliamentary democracy, a [minority government or "hung parliament"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hung_parliament) is one in which no single party holds a majority of the seats...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a full human genome in 2025 will be 302 times higher than in 2021 USD? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> A [genome](https://en.wikipedia.or...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a full human genome in 2032 will be 132 times higher than in 2021 USD? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> A [genome](https://en.wikipedia.or...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be 1.12 in the year 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rate-in-conflicts" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> The prevalence of global violence is an important i...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a full human genome in 2025 will be 302 times higher than in 2021 USD? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> A [genome](https://en.wikipedia.or...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a full human genome in 2025 will be 302 times higher than in 2021 USD? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> A [genome](https://en.wikipedia.or...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a full human genome in the following years will be 422 times the current cost in 2021 USD? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> A [genome](htt...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a full human genome in 2032 will be 132 times higher than in 2021 USD? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> A [genome](https://en.wikipedia.or...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be 0.572 in the year 2122? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rate-in-conflicts" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> The prevalence of global violence is an important ...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a full human genome in 2052 will be 57.7 times the current cost (in 2021 USD)? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> A [genome](https://en.wiki...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a full human genome in 2032 will be 132 times higher than in 2021 USD? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> A [genome](https://en.wikipedia.or...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a full human genome in 2052 will be 57.7 times the current cost (in 2021 USD)? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> A [genome](https://en.wiki...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a total of 18.6k fatalities from terrorism in the world in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/incidence-of-terrorism" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/ter...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a full human genome in 2022 will be 16.0 times the cost in 2021 USD? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> A [genome](https://en.wikipedia.org/...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a total of 20.8k fatalities from terrorism in the world by 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/incidence-of-terrorism" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism) notes t...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a full human genome in 2022 will be 16.0 times the cost in 2021 USD? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> A [genome](https://en.wikipedia.org/...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a total of 38.9k fatalities from terrorism in the world by 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/incidence-of-terrorism" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism) notes t...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a total of 20.8k fatalities from terrorism in the world by 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/incidence-of-terrorism" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism) notes t...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a total of 38.9k fatalities from terrorism in the world by 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/incidence-of-terrorism" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism) notes t...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a full human genome in 2052 will be 57.7 times the current cost (in 2021 USD)? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> A [genome](https://en.wiki...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 544 fatalities from terrorism in the world in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/incidence-of-terrorism" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism) notes...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 544 fatalities from terrorism in the world in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/incidence-of-terrorism" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism) notes...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that U.S. law will not recognize an artificial entity as a natural person before 2070? Brent Spiner's character on *Star Trek: The Next Generation* was called Mr. Data. Data was a construct engineered by Dr. Noonien Soong; an artificially intelligent humanoid robot possessed of a Starfleet officer's ...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a total of 18.6k fatalities from terrorism in the world in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/incidence-of-terrorism" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/ter...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a total of 38.9k fatalities from terrorism in the world by 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/incidence-of-terrorism" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism) notes t...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a total of 20.8k fatalities from terrorism in the world by 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/incidence-of-terrorism" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism) notes t...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 544 fatalities from terrorism in the world in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/incidence-of-terrorism" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism) notes...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a total of 18.6k fatalities from terrorism in the world in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/incidence-of-terrorism" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/ter...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the cost of sequencing a full human genome in 2022 will be 16.0 times the cost in 2021 USD? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-of-sequencing-a-full-human-genome" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> A [genome](https://en.wikipedia.org/...
0.75
Metaculus