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What is the chance that the fastest supercomputer on record will have a speed of 8.71×1034 FLOPS in the next 10 years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.619B people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-poverty-thresholds" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> While defining specifi...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the fastest supercomputer on record will have a speed of 8.71×1034 FLOPS in the next 10 years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the fastest supercomputer on record will have a speed of 5.33×1022 FLOPS by 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/supercomputer-power-flops" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Supercomputer performance is often measured in [floating po...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.619B people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-poverty-thresholds" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> While defining specifi...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the fastest supercomputer on record will have a speed of 5.33×1022 FLOPS by 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/supercomputer-power-flops" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> Supercomputer performance is often measured in [floating po...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.701B people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the following years? (2032) <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-poverty-thresholds" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> While defining ...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.701B people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the following years? (2032) <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-poverty-thresholds" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> While defining ...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.701B people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the following years? (2032) <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-poverty-thresholds" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> While defining ...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 3.88B people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the year 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-poverty-thresholds" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> While defining specific thres...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.552B people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the following years? (2025) <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-poverty-thresholds" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> While defining ...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the fastest supercomputer on record will have a speed of 2.77×1018 FLOPS by 2025?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.552B people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the following years? (2025) <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-poverty-thresholds" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> While defining ...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the fastest supercomputer on record will have a speed of 9.02×1019 FLOPS by 2032?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the fastest supercomputer on record will have a speed of 9.02×1019 FLOPS by 2032?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) will be 37.62B in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 3.88B people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the year 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-poverty-thresholds" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> While defining specific thres...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 1.95B people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) will be 37.62B in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 3.88B people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the year 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-poverty-thresholds" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> While defining specific thres...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 1.95B people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) will be 37.62B in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 1.95B people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) will be 38.09B in the year 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?time=1900..latest&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wiki...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.619B people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-poverty-thresholds" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> While defining specifi...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) will be 38.09B in the year 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?time=1900..latest&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wiki...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) will be 38.8B in the year 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?time=1900..latest&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wikip...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 4.552B people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the following years? (2025) <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-poverty-thresholds" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> While defining ...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) will be 17.2B in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?time=1900..latest&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Carbon Dioxide](https://en...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) will be 11.3B in the year 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?time=1900..latest&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wikip...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) will be 11.3B in the year 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?time=1900..latest&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wikip...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that productivity in the United States will be 76.85% in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) will be 17.2B in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?time=1900..latest&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Carbon Dioxide](https://en...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that productivity in the United States will be 80.03% in the following years (2025)? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-PennWorldTable?tab=chart&country=~USA" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Labor productivity](...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) will be 17.2B in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?time=1900..latest&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Carbon Dioxide](https://en...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) will be 11.3B in the year 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?time=1900..latest&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wikip...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) will be 38.8B in the year 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?time=1900..latest&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wikip...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that productivity in the United States will be 96.8% in the year 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-PennWorldTable?tab=chart&country=~USA" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Labor productivity](https://www.in...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that productivity in the United States will be 76.85% in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that productivity in the United States will be 76.85% in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that productivity in the United States will be 80.03% in the following years (2025)? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-PennWorldTable?tab=chart&country=~USA" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Labor productivity](...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that productivity in the United States will be 96.8% in the year 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-PennWorldTable?tab=chart&country=~USA" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Labor productivity](https://www.in...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that productivity in the United States will be 96.8% in the year 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-PennWorldTable?tab=chart&country=~USA" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Labor productivity](https://www.in...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that productivity in the United States will be 184% in the year 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-PennWorldTable?tab=chart&country=~USA" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Labor productivity](https://www.inv...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that productivity in the United States will be 80.03% in the following years (2025)? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-PennWorldTable?tab=chart&country=~USA" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Labor productivity](...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) will be 38.09B in the year 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?time=1900..latest&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wiki...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) will be 38.8B in the year 2032? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?time=1900..latest&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wikip...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that productivity in the United States will be 184% in the year 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-PennWorldTable?tab=chart&country=~USA" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Labor productivity](https://www.inv...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that productivity in the United States will be 29.3k in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that productivity in the United States will be 184% in the year 2052? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-PennWorldTable?tab=chart&country=~USA" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> [Labor productivity](https://www.inv...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that productivity in the United States will be 29.3k in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that productivity in the United States will be 29.3k in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 1.45B people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years (2032)?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 1.08 billion people living in liberal democracies in the world by 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-living-in-democracies-autocracies" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> In its article [Democracy](https://ourwo...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 1.028 billion people living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-living-in-democracies-autocracies" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> In its article [Democrac...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 1.16 billion people living in liberal democracies in the world by 2052?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 226 million people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 1.08 billion people living in liberal democracies in the world by 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-living-in-democracies-autocracies" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> In its article [Democracy](https://ourwo...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 1.16 billion people living in liberal democracies in the world by 2052?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 1.028 billion people living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-living-in-democracies-autocracies" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> In its article [Democrac...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 1.028 billion people living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-living-in-democracies-autocracies" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> In its article [Democrac...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 1.45B people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years (2032)?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world will be 344B in the listed years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 1.08 billion people living in liberal democracies in the world by 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-living-in-democracies-autocracies" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> In its article [Democracy](https://ourwo...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 226 million people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world will be 344B in the listed years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be 1.16 billion people living in liberal democracies in the world by 2052?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world will be 344B in the listed years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 226 million people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world will be 837B in the year 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world will be 837B in the year 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world will be 3.40×1012 in the year 2032?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world will be 837B in the year 2025?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 1.45B people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years (2032)?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the estimated chance that the highest computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs will be 9.21×1025 by the year 2025?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world will be 3.40×1012 in the year 2032?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years will be 1.99×1012?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs will be 1.34×1025 by the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs will be 1.34×1025 by the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years will be 1.99×1012?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years will be 1.32×1013?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world will be 3.40×1012 in the year 2032?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years will be 1.32×1013?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs will be 1.34×1025 by the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the estimated chance that the highest computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs will be 9.21×1025 by the year 2025?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the estimated chance that the highest computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs will be 9.21×1025 by the year 2025?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs will be 8.50×1029 by the year 2032?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs will be 8.50×1029 by the year 2032?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs will be 8.50×1029 by the year 2032?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the estimated chance that the highest computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs will be 2.21×1051 by the year 2122?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the estimated chance that the highest computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs will be 2.21×1051 by the year 2122?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the estimated chance that the highest computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs will be 8.93×1036 by the year 2052?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 10.6 countries will have AAA-rated sovereign debt according to S&P in 2028?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that a top celebrity musician will accuse AI of unfairly mimicking their style by Aug 2024?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the estimated chance that the highest computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs will be 8.93×1036 by the year 2052?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that a top celebrity musician will accuse AI of unfairly mimicking their style by Aug 2024?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that a top celebrity musician will accuse AI of unfairly mimicking their style by Aug 2024?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years will be 1.99×1012?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 10.6 countries will have AAA-rated sovereign debt according to S&P in 2028?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the estimated chance that the highest computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs will be 2.21×1051 by the year 2122?
0.5
Metaculus