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What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will accomplish festival feature success by Nov 2025? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/joe-russo-artificial-... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will accomplish these types of success in animated features by Apr 2025? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/jo... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will top Netflix by August 2027? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/joe-russo-artificial-intelligence-create-m... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will accomplish these types of success in animated features by Apr 2025? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/jo... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will accomplish these types of success (Award Nomination) by Feb 2028? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/joe-... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will accomplish festival feature success by Nov 2025? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/joe-russo-artificial-... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will top Netflix by August 2027? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/joe-russo-artificial-intelligence-create-m... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will accomplish these types of success in animated features by Apr 2025? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/jo... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will top Netflix by August 2027? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/joe-russo-artificial-intelligence-create-m... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics will be 380M in March, 2028? [Metriq](https://metriq.info/) is a crowd-sourced website for tracking advancements in quantum computing metrics. This question group asks what the best values for the following metrics will be, according to ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028 will be a single-qubit relaxation time (T1) of 509M? [Metriq](https://metriq.info/) is a crowd-sourced website for tracking advancements in quantum computing metrics. This question group asks what the best values for the f... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics will be 380M in March, 2028? [Metriq](https://metriq.info/) is a crowd-sourced website for tracking advancements in quantum computing metrics. This question group asks what the best values for the following metrics will be, according to ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028 will have a coherence time (T2) of 61.6 seconds? [Metriq](https://metriq.info/) is a crowd-sourced website for tracking advancements in quantum computing metrics. This question group asks what the best values for the follo... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics will be 380M in March, 2028? [Metriq](https://metriq.info/) is a crowd-sourced website for tracking advancements in quantum computing metrics. This question group asks what the best values for the following metrics will be, according to ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the "state of the art" for 2-qubit gate infidelity in quantum computing will be 9.89×10−5 in March, 2028? [Metriq](https://metriq.info/) is a crowd-sourced website for tracking advancements in quantum computing metrics. This question group asks what the best values for the following metrics will... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the African National Congress will get 47.97% of the popular vote in the 2024 South African general election? The ANC (African National Congress) is the ruling party in South African and has won every democratic national election by a margin of greater than 50% (last election 2019 57.58%).
Sout... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028 will be a single-qubit relaxation time (T1) of 509M? [Metriq](https://metriq.info/) is a crowd-sourced website for tracking advancements in quantum computing metrics. This question group asks what the best values for the f... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the "state of the art" for 2-qubit gate infidelity in quantum computing will be 9.89×10−5 in March, 2028? [Metriq](https://metriq.info/) is a crowd-sourced website for tracking advancements in quantum computing metrics. This question group asks what the best values for the following metrics will... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028 will be a single-qubit relaxation time (T1) of 509M? [Metriq](https://metriq.info/) is a crowd-sourced website for tracking advancements in quantum computing metrics. This question group asks what the best values for the f... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the African National Congress will get 47.97% of the popular vote in the 2024 South African general election? The ANC (African National Congress) is the ruling party in South African and has won every democratic national election by a margin of greater than 50% (last election 2019 57.58%).
Sout... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the "state of the art" for 2-qubit gate infidelity in quantum computing will be 9.89×10−5 in March, 2028? [Metriq](https://metriq.info/) is a crowd-sourced website for tracking advancements in quantum computing metrics. This question group asks what the best values for the following metrics will... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028 will have a coherence time (T2) of 61.6 seconds? [Metriq](https://metriq.info/) is a crowd-sourced website for tracking advancements in quantum computing metrics. This question group asks what the best values for the follo... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028 will have a coherence time (T2) of 61.6 seconds? [Metriq](https://metriq.info/) is a crowd-sourced website for tracking advancements in quantum computing metrics. This question group asks what the best values for the follo... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the African National Congress will get 47.97% of the popular vote in the 2024 South African general election? The ANC (African National Congress) is the ruling party in South African and has won every democratic national election by a margin of greater than 50% (last election 2019 57.58%).
Sout... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Input (8K context))
Keyword: < 10−3
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 1K GPT-4 API tokens will cost less than 10−3 in January 2025? [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced in March 2023. The API is not yet public as of ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Output (8K context))
Keyword: < 10−3
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 1K GPT-4 API tokens will cost less than 10−3 in January 2025? [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced in March 2023. The API is not yet public as of... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Input (8K context))
Keyword: < 10−3
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 1K GPT-4 API tokens will cost less than 10−3 in January 2025? [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced in March 2023. The API is not yet public as of ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Output (32K context))
Keyword: < 10−3
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 1K GPT-4 API tokens will cost less than 10−3 in January 2025? [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced in March 2023. The API is not yet public as o... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Input (32K context))
Keyword: < 10−3
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 1K GPT-4 API tokens will cost less than 10−3 in January 2025? [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced in March 2023. The API is not yet public as of... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the following countries will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Nov 2028? Many definitions exist for _civil war_. Wikipedia's page on [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war), provides the following
> A **civil war** is a [war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the following countries will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Nov 2028? Many definitions exist for _civil war_. Wikipedia's page on [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war), provides the following
> A **civil war** is a [war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the following countries will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Nov 2028? Many definitions exist for _civil war_. Wikipedia's page on [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war), provides the following
> A **civil war** is a [war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Output (32K context))
Keyword: < 10−3
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 1K GPT-4 API tokens will cost less than 10−3 in January 2025? [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced in March 2023. The API is not yet public as o... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Libya will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Jan 2031? Many definitions exist for _civil war_. Wikipedia's page on [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war), provides the following
> A **civil war** is a [war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War "War") betwee... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Libya will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Jan 2031? Many definitions exist for _civil war_. Wikipedia's page on [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war), provides the following
> A **civil war** is a [war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War "War") betwee... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Input (32K context))
Keyword: < 10−3
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 1K GPT-4 API tokens will cost less than 10−3 in January 2025? [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced in March 2023. The API is not yet public as of... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (750 Input Tokens + 250 Output Tokens)
Keyword: < 10−3
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 1K GPT-4 API tokens will cost less than 10−3 in January 2025? [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced in March 2023. The API is no... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (750 Input Tokens + 250 Output Tokens)
Keyword: < 10−3
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 1K GPT-4 API tokens will cost less than 10−3 in January 2025? [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced in March 2023. The API is no... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Output (32K context))
Keyword: < 10−3
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 1K GPT-4 API tokens will cost less than 10−3 in January 2025? [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced in March 2023. The API is not yet public as o... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Libya will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Jan 2031? Many definitions exist for _civil war_. Wikipedia's page on [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war), provides the following
> A **civil war** is a [war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War "War") betwee... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Syria will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Sep 2029? Many definitions exist for _civil war_. Wikipedia's page on [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war), provides the following
> A **civil war** is a [war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War "War") betwee... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Syria will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Sep 2029? Many definitions exist for _civil war_. Wikipedia's page on [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war), provides the following
> A **civil war** is a [war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War "War") betwee... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Syria will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Sep 2029? Many definitions exist for _civil war_. Wikipedia's page on [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war), provides the following
> A **civil war** is a [war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War "War") betwee... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that South Sudan will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Jul 2028? Many definitions exist for _civil war_. Wikipedia's page on [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war), provides the following
> A **civil war** is a [war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War "War") ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that South Sudan will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Jul 2028? Many definitions exist for _civil war_. Wikipedia's page on [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war), provides the following
> A **civil war** is a [war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War "War") ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that South Sudan will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Jul 2028? Many definitions exist for _civil war_. Wikipedia's page on [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war), provides the following
> A **civil war** is a [war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War "War") ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Myanmar will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Dec 2028? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (750 Input Tokens + 250 Output Tokens)
Keyword: < 10−3
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 1K GPT-4 API tokens will cost less than 10−3 in January 2025? [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced in March 2023. The API is no... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Yemen will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Nov 2026? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Yemen will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Nov 2026? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Myanmar will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Dec 2028? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the most expensive AI training run will be 286 million USD in the following years? In June 2023, [Epoch AI](https://epochai.org/) reports the most expensive training run to have been $40 million ([source, see p. 7](https://drive.google.com/file/d/18egmiHWx8fnWQExSOJcux0Us5zkAKPnh/view?usp=sharin... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Central African Republic will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Jul 2027? Many definitions exist for _civil war_. Wikipedia's page on [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war), provides the following
> A **civil war** is a [war](https://en.wikipedia.org... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Central African Republic will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Jul 2027? Many definitions exist for _civil war_. Wikipedia's page on [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war), provides the following
> A **civil war** is a [war](https://en.wikipedia.org... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Yemen will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Nov 2026? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the most expensive AI training run in the following years will be over 1 million USD, in percentage? In June 2023, [Epoch AI](https://epochai.org/) reports the most expensive training run to have been $40 million ([source, see p. 7](https://drive.google.com/file/d/18egmiHWx8fnWQExSOJcux0Us5zkAKP... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the most expensive AI training run will be 286 million USD in the following years? In June 2023, [Epoch AI](https://epochai.org/) reports the most expensive training run to have been $40 million ([source, see p. 7](https://drive.google.com/file/d/18egmiHWx8fnWQExSOJcux0Us5zkAKPnh/view?usp=sharin... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the most expensive AI training run in the following years will be over 1 million USD, in percentage? In June 2023, [Epoch AI](https://epochai.org/) reports the most expensive training run to have been $40 million ([source, see p. 7](https://drive.google.com/file/d/18egmiHWx8fnWQExSOJcux0Us5zkAKP... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the most expensive AI training run in the following years will be 699 million USD? In June 2023, [Epoch AI](https://epochai.org/) reports the most expensive training run to have been $40 million ([source, see p. 7](https://drive.google.com/file/d/18egmiHWx8fnWQExSOJcux0Us5zkAKPnh/view?usp=sharin... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Central African Republic will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Jul 2027? Many definitions exist for _civil war_. Wikipedia's page on [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war), provides the following
> A **civil war** is a [war](https://en.wikipedia.org... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the most expensive AI training run in the following years will be 699 million USD? In June 2023, [Epoch AI](https://epochai.org/) reports the most expensive training run to have been $40 million ([source, see p. 7](https://drive.google.com/file/d/18egmiHWx8fnWQExSOJcux0Us5zkAKPnh/view?usp=sharin... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Myanmar will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by Dec 2028? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the most expensive AI training run in the following years will be 699 million USD? In June 2023, [Epoch AI](https://epochai.org/) reports the most expensive training run to have been $40 million ([source, see p. 7](https://drive.google.com/file/d/18egmiHWx8fnWQExSOJcux0Us5zkAKPnh/view?usp=sharin... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump (classified documents case) will not begin before January 2026? [United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump) is a pending federal criminal case against Donald Trump, the 45th ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the most expensive AI training run will be 286 million USD in the following years? In June 2023, [Epoch AI](https://epochai.org/) reports the most expensive training run to have been $40 million ([source, see p. 7](https://drive.google.com/file/d/18egmiHWx8fnWQExSOJcux0Us5zkAKPnh/view?usp=sharin... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the women's world record for a competitive marathon will not be below 2 hours by Jan 1, 2061? The men's world record for a competitive marathon is held at 2:01:09 by Eliud Kipchoge at the Berlin Marathon in [2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Berlin_Marathon). There is much discussion arou... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the most expensive AI training run in the following years will be over 1 million USD, in percentage? In June 2023, [Epoch AI](https://epochai.org/) reports the most expensive training run to have been $40 million ([source, see p. 7](https://drive.google.com/file/d/18egmiHWx8fnWQExSOJcux0Us5zkAKP... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the women's world record for a competitive marathon will not be below 2 hours by Jan 1, 2061? The men's world record for a competitive marathon is held at 2:01:09 by Eliud Kipchoge at the Berlin Marathon in [2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Berlin_Marathon). There is much discussion arou... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump (classified documents case) will not begin before January 2026? [United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump) is a pending federal criminal case against Donald Trump, the 45th ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the women's world record for a competitive marathon will not be below 2 hours by Jan 1, 2061? The men's world record for a competitive marathon is held at 2:01:09 by Eliud Kipchoge at the Berlin Marathon in [2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Berlin_Marathon). There is much discussion arou... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 3.62% on June 30, 2025? The [Federal Open Market Committee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Open_Market_Committee) (FOMC) oversees [open market operations](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) for the United... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 342.1 in the following months (Apr-24)? The S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index provides a measure of national home prices in the US. The [published methodology](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/me... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 342.1 in the following months (Apr-24)? The S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index provides a measure of national home prices in the US. The [published methodology](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/me... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 3.62% on June 30, 2025? The [Federal Open Market Committee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Open_Market_Committee) (FOMC) oversees [open market operations](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) for the United... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 342.1 in the following months (Apr-24)? The S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index provides a measure of national home prices in the US. The [published methodology](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/me... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump (classified documents case) will not begin before January 2026? [United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump) is a pending federal criminal case against Donald Trump, the 45th ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) will be 11.5 on June 30, 2024? 10 years ago, one US Dollar (USD) cost 6,67 Swedish Krona (SEK). Today, June 26 2023, it costs 11,1 SEK. Several academic studies have tried to explain the declining value of SEK using established... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) will be 11.5 on June 30, 2024? 10 years ago, one US Dollar (USD) cost 6,67 Swedish Krona (SEK). Today, June 26 2023, it costs 11,1 SEK. Several academic studies have tried to explain the declining value of SEK using established... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 3.62% on June 30, 2025? The [Federal Open Market Committee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Open_Market_Committee) (FOMC) oversees [open market operations](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) for the United... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) will be 11.5 on June 30, 2024? 10 years ago, one US Dollar (USD) cost 6,67 Swedish Krona (SEK). Today, June 26 2023, it costs 11,1 SEK. Several academic studies have tried to explain the declining value of SEK using established... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Utility Fog will be a commercial product available to consumers in the United States by 2040? According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility_fog), Utility Fog is "is a hypothetical collection of tiny nanobots that can replicate a physical structure."
The specs for Utility Fog ca... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Utility Fog will be a commercial product available to consumers in the United States by 2040? According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility_fog), Utility Fog is "is a hypothetical collection of tiny nanobots that can replicate a physical structure."
The specs for Utility Fog ca... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 39.8 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2050? At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average tempe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 39.8 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2050? At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average tempe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 20.9 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2100? At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average tempe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Utility Fog will be a commercial product available to consumers in the United States by 2040? According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility_fog), Utility Fog is "is a hypothetical collection of tiny nanobots that can replicate a physical structure."
The specs for Utility Fog ca... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 39.8 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2050? At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average tempe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 20.9 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2100? At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average tempe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 20.9 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent greenhouse gas will be emitted globally in 2100? At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average tempe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that President Joe Biden's net approval rating will be 50% lower than it is now on November 1, 2024? [Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden), born November 20, 1942, is an American politician who is the 46th and current president of the United States. Biden is seeking re... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 125k change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment from June 2024 to the end of the year? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the change in [nonfarm payroll employment](https:... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 212k change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months (May-24)? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the change in [nonfarm payroll employment](https://www... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 212k change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months (May-24)? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the change in [nonfarm payroll employment](https://www... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Russia's Democracy Index will be 3.23 in the 2030 report by the Economist Intelligence Unit? The Democracy Index is an index compiled by the [Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)](https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2022/) that aims to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Russia's Democracy Index will be 3.23 in the 2030 report by the Economist Intelligence Unit? The Democracy Index is an index compiled by the [Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)](https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2022/) that aims to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 125k change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment from June 2024 to the end of the year? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the change in [nonfarm payroll employment](https:... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that President Joe Biden's net approval rating will be 50% lower than it is now on November 1, 2024? [Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden), born November 20, 1942, is an American politician who is the 46th and current president of the United States. Biden is seeking re... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that President Joe Biden's net approval rating will be 50% lower than it is now on November 1, 2024? [Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden), born November 20, 1942, is an American politician who is the 46th and current president of the United States. Biden is seeking re... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 212k change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months (May-24)? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the change in [nonfarm payroll employment](https://www... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Russia's Democracy Index will be 3.23 in the 2030 report by the Economist Intelligence Unit? The Democracy Index is an index compiled by the [Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)](https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2022/) that aims to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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