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What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be 187k in 2035 using May 2023 dollars? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the wages of software developers in the US will change over time, controlled for inflation using May 2023 dollars an... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States in 2040 will be 75% higher than May 2023 dollars? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be 187k in 2035 using May 2023 dollars? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the wages of software developers in the US will change over time, controlled for inflation using May 2023 dollars an... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Miegakure will not be released before January 2030? [Miegakure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miegakure) is a puzzle-platform video game by Marc ten Bosch set in a world with four spatial dimensions. While it has not yet been released, early versions of the game have won or been nominated for [n... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be 187k in 2035 using May 2023 dollars? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the wages of software developers in the US will change over time, controlled for inflation using May 2023 dollars an... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
Keyword: 6.40
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 6.40 Frontier AI labs on Dec 31, 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.918 in the following months (Apr-24)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.918 in the following months (Apr-24)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
Keyword: 6.40
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 6.40 Frontier AI labs on Dec 31, 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.918 in the following months (Apr-24)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 18.5% of American adults in 2070 will identify as LGBTQ? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States in 2040 will be 75% higher than May 2023 dollars? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will independently prescribe the majority of medication in the U.S. by 2072? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will independently prescribe the majority of medication in the U.S. by 2072? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will independently prescribe the majority of medication in the U.S. by 2072? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 18.5% of American adults in 2070 will identify as LGBTQ? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What will be the US : China ratio for the number of significant ML systems in these years (2024)? (4.74)
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the US : China ratio for the number of significant ML systems in these years (2024) will be 4.74? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US : China ratio for the number of significant ML systems will be 6.92:1 in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US : China ratio for the number of significant ML systems will be 4.18 in these years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
Keyword: 6.40
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that there will be 6.40 Frontier AI labs on Dec 31, 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What will be the US : China ratio for the number of significant ML systems in these years (2024)? (4.74)
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the US : China ratio for the number of significant ML systems in these years (2024) will be 4.74? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US : China ratio for the number of significant ML systems will be 6.92:1 in 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US : China ratio for the number of significant ML systems will be 4.18 in these years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US : China ratio for the number of significant ML systems will be 4.18 in these years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What will be the US : China ratio for the number of significant ML systems in these years (2026)? (4.82)
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the US : China ratio for the number of significant ML systems in these years (2026) will be 4.82? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What will be the US : China ratio for the number of significant ML systems in these years (2024)? (4.74)
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the US : China ratio for the number of significant ML systems in these years (2024) will be 4.74? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Chinese AI Lab will train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4) by Jan 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be 24.8 over the next five years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be 24.8 over the next five years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Chinese AI Lab will train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4) by Jan 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be 24.8 over the next five years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be 24.8 over the next five years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Chinese AI Lab will train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4) by Jan 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be 24.8 over the next five years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What will be the US : China ratio for the number of significant ML systems in these years (2026)? (4.82)
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the US : China ratio for the number of significant ML systems in these years (2026) will be 4.82? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be 21.3 over the next five years (2025)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be 21.3 over the next five years (2025)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be greater than 30 over the next five years (2026)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be greater than 30 over the next five years (2026)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be greater than 30 over the next five years (2026)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be 24.8 over the next five years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be 21.3 over the next five years (2025)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be 26.4 over the next five years (2027)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be 26.4 over the next five years (2027)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be 28.17 over the next five years (2028)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be 28.17 over the next five years (2028)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be 26.4 over the next five years (2027)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation in the United States will be 0.329 in the following months (Apr-24)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the record for log quantum volume will be 28.17 over the next five years (2028)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation in the United States will be 0.329 in the following months (Apr-24)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 73.3k change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months (Apr-24)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 73.3k change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months (Apr-24)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 73.3k change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months (Apr-24)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation in the United States will be 0.329 in the following months (Apr-24)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 337.6 in the following months (Mar-24)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 337.6 in the following months (Mar-24)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the male-to-female ratio in the global population will be 1.005 by the year 2050? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the USAF's Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter aircraft will reach initial operating capability by 2035? The US Air Force's [Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Generation_Air_Dominance) fighter program is a military research project currently being ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the male-to-female ratio in the global population will be 1.005 by the year 2050? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the USAF's Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter aircraft will reach initial operating capability by 2035? The US Air Force's [Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Generation_Air_Dominance) fighter program is a military research project currently being ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 337.6 in the following months (Mar-24)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first baby of an extinct vertebrate species will be born or hatched naturally by 2063? There are multiple projects underway to reverse the extinction of species including the [woolly mammoth](https://colossal.com/mammoth/), passenger pigeon, [Tasmanian tiger aka thylacine](https://www.bbc.co... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first baby of an extinct vertebrate species will be born or hatched naturally by 2063? There are multiple projects underway to reverse the extinction of species including the [woolly mammoth](https://colossal.com/mammoth/), passenger pigeon, [Tasmanian tiger aka thylacine](https://www.bbc.co... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film by 2026? Artificial Intelligence (AI) is already being used in various aspects of filmmaking, such as scriptwriting, pre-production, formulating release strategies, predicting success at the box office, casting, and promotion. ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the male-to-female ratio in the global population will be 1.005 by the year 2050? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first baby of an extinct vertebrate species will be born or hatched naturally by 2063? There are multiple projects underway to reverse the extinction of species including the [woolly mammoth](https://colossal.com/mammoth/), passenger pigeon, [Tasmanian tiger aka thylacine](https://www.bbc.co... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film by 2026? Artificial Intelligence (AI) is already being used in various aspects of filmmaking, such as scriptwriting, pre-production, formulating release strategies, predicting success at the box office, casting, and promotion. ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first human genome will be artificially synthesized by 2050? A haploid human genome is 3.19 billion base pairs (Gbp). As of June 15th, 2023, the [largest genome synthesized](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1192-5) was a recoded E. coli genome (~4 million base pairs, Mbp) in 2019.
... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that AI will wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film by 2026? Artificial Intelligence (AI) is already being used in various aspects of filmmaking, such as scriptwriting, pre-production, formulating release strategies, predicting success at the box office, casting, and promotion. ... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the USAF's Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter aircraft will reach initial operating capability by 2035? The US Air Force's [Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Generation_Air_Dominance) fighter program is a military research project currently being ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Apple's twelve-month sales for the Vision Pro in Q1 2025 will be 1.01k in millions of dollars? On June 5, 2023 Apple announced a new product for "spatial computing" called [Vision Pro](https://www.apple.com/apple-vision-pro/) – an AR headset for home and work purposes. It is priced at $3,499, an... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Apple's twelve-month sales for the Vision Pro in Q1 2025 will be 1.01k in millions of dollars? On June 5, 2023 Apple announced a new product for "spatial computing" called [Vision Pro](https://www.apple.com/apple-vision-pro/) – an AR headset for home and work purposes. It is priced at $3,499, an... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first human genome will be artificially synthesized by 2050? A haploid human genome is 3.19 billion base pairs (Gbp). As of June 15th, 2023, the [largest genome synthesized](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1192-5) was a recoded E. coli genome (~4 million base pairs, Mbp) in 2019.
... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first human genome will be artificially synthesized by 2050? A haploid human genome is 3.19 billion base pairs (Gbp). As of June 15th, 2023, the [largest genome synthesized](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1192-5) was a recoded E. coli genome (~4 million base pairs, Mbp) in 2019.
... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the most expensive AI training run in the following years will be 661 million USD? In June 2023, [Epoch AI](https://epochai.org/) reports the most expensive training run to have been $40 million ([source, see p. 7](https://drive.google.com/file/d/18egmiHWx8fnWQExSOJcux0Us5zkAKPnh/view?usp=sharin... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Apple's twelve-month sales for the Vision Pro in Q1 2025 will be 1.01k in millions of dollars? On June 5, 2023 Apple announced a new product for "spatial computing" called [Vision Pro](https://www.apple.com/apple-vision-pro/) – an AR headset for home and work purposes. It is priced at $3,499, an... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the most expensive AI training run in the following years will be 661 million USD? In June 2023, [Epoch AI](https://epochai.org/) reports the most expensive training run to have been $40 million ([source, see p. 7](https://drive.google.com/file/d/18egmiHWx8fnWQExSOJcux0Us5zkAKPnh/view?usp=sharin... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Sergei Shoigu will cease to hold the office of Minister of Defense of Russia by Jun 2025? [Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Shoigu) is the current Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation. He was appointed to this position by President Vladimir Putin on Nove... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Sergei Shoigu will cease to hold the office of Minister of Defense of Russia by Jun 2025? [Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Shoigu) is the current Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation. He was appointed to this position by President Vladimir Putin on Nove... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Sergei Shoigu will cease to hold the office of Minister of Defense of Russia by Jun 2025? [Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Shoigu) is the current Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation. He was appointed to this position by President Vladimir Putin on Nove... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If Donald J. Trump is convicted in the classified documents case, what is the chance that he will be sentenced to 27.5 months of imprisonment? In June 2023, former president of the United States Donald J. Trump was [indicted](https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23839677/govuscourtsflsd64865330.pdf) by a federal gran... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the most expensive AI training run in the following years will be 661 million USD? In June 2023, [Epoch AI](https://epochai.org/) reports the most expensive training run to have been $40 million ([source, see p. 7](https://drive.google.com/file/d/18egmiHWx8fnWQExSOJcux0Us5zkAKPnh/view?usp=sharin... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If Donald J. Trump is convicted in the classified documents case, what is the chance that he will be sentenced to 27.5 months of imprisonment? In June 2023, former president of the United States Donald J. Trump was [indicted](https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23839677/govuscourtsflsd64865330.pdf) by a federal gran... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will accomplish these types of success by Mar 2028? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/joe-russo-artificial-in... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that a Chinese actor will train a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) 13.5 months after a Western actor does so? Epoch AI estimates that the compute used in the final training run of GPT... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will accomplish these types of success by Mar 2028? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/joe-russo-artificial-in... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If Donald J. Trump is convicted in the classified documents case, what is the chance that he will be sentenced to 27.5 months of imprisonment? In June 2023, former president of the United States Donald J. Trump was [indicted](https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23839677/govuscourtsflsd64865330.pdf) by a federal gran... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that OpenAI will release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 2x less than GPT-4 did when it was released by May 2024? On June 10, 2023, Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind, [tweeted](https://twitter.com/mustafasuleymn/status/1667340253584297992) that "LLM hallucinations will be largely elimin... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that a Chinese actor will train a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) 13.5 months after a Western actor does so? Epoch AI estimates that the compute used in the final training run of GPT... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that OpenAI will release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 2x less than GPT-4 did when it was released by May 2024? On June 10, 2023, Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind, [tweeted](https://twitter.com/mustafasuleymn/status/1667340253584297992) that "LLM hallucinations will be largely elimin... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1K GPT-4 API tokens will cost less than $10^3 in January 2025? [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced in March 2023. The API is not yet public as of June 2023 but is available to some users. Current pricing is as follows:
| Model | Input | Output |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 8K con... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that OpenAI will release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 2x less than GPT-4 did when it was released by May 2024? On June 10, 2023, Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind, [tweeted](https://twitter.com/mustafasuleymn/status/1667340253584297992) that "LLM hallucinations will be largely elimin... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will accomplish these types of success (Award Nomination) by Feb 2028? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/joe-... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will accomplish these types of success by Mar 2028? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/joe-russo-artificial-in... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will accomplish these types of success (>$10M Box Office) by Oct 2026? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/joe-... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1K GPT-4 API tokens will cost less than $10^3 in January 2025? [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced in March 2023. The API is not yet public as of June 2023 but is available to some users. Current pricing is as follows:
| Model | Input | Output |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 8K con... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will accomplish these types of success (>$10M Box Office) by Oct 2026? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/joe-... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will accomplish these types of success (Award Nomination) by Feb 2028? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/joe-... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will accomplish festival feature success by Nov 2025? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/joe-russo-artificial-... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a primarily-AI-made movie will accomplish these types of success (>$10M Box Office) by Oct 2026? AI technology has been increasing rapidly and could eventually create movies. [Avengers' Director Joe Russo predicted AI "could be making movies in two years"](https://variety.com/2023/film/news/joe-... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
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