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If Sahra Wagenknecht founds a new party, what is the chance that this party will get 8.92% of the votes in the next German federal elections? [Sahra Wagenknecht](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahra_Wagenknecht) (born 1969 in then East Germany) is a German politician of the party Die Linke (The Left) and member of the B... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the following countries will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by Nov 2026? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the following countries will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by Nov 2026? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 125k change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment from June 2024 to the end of the year? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the change in [nonfarm payroll employment](https:... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Romania will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by Nov 2026? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a result of E... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the following countries will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by Nov 2026? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If Sahra Wagenknecht founds a new party, what is the chance that this party will get 8.92% of the votes in the next German federal elections? [Sahra Wagenknecht](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahra_Wagenknecht) (born 1969 in then East Germany) is a German politician of the party Die Linke (The Left) and member of the B... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
If Sahra Wagenknecht founds a new party, what is the chance that this party will get 8.92% of the votes in the next German federal elections? [Sahra Wagenknecht](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahra_Wagenknecht) (born 1969 in then East Germany) is a German politician of the party Die Linke (The Left) and member of the B... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Romania will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by Nov 2026? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a result of E... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Bulgaria will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by Feb 2027? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a result of ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Albania will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by Aug 2034? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a result of E... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Bulgaria will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by Feb 2027? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a result of ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Romania will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by Nov 2026? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a result of E... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Cyprus will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a resu... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Cyprus will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a resu... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Albania will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by Aug 2034? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a result of E... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Cyprus will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a resu... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Montenegro will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that North Macedonia will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by May 2032? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a res... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that North Macedonia will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by May 2032? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a res... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Albania will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by Aug 2034? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a result of E... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Montenegro will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Serbia will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Bulgaria will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by Feb 2027? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a result of ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Bosnia and Herzegovina will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may joi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Montenegro will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Bosnia and Herzegovina will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may joi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Bosnia and Herzegovina will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may joi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Moldova will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a res... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Moldova will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a res... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Moldova will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a res... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ukraine will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a res... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Georgia will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Georgia will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Georgia will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ukraine will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a res... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ukraine will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a res... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Turkey will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Turkey will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that North Macedonia will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by May 2032? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a res... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ireland will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by Apr 2034? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a result of E... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Serbia will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Serbia will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ireland will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by Apr 2034? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a result of E... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ireland will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by Apr 2034? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a result of E... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Turkey will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Kosovo will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United Kingdom will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Scheng... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United Kingdom will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Scheng... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Kosovo will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Kosovo will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Armenia will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United Kingdom will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Scheng... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Armenia will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Armenia will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Belarus will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Belarus will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Belarus will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Russia will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Sweden Democrats will win 81.2 parliamentary seats in the Swedish 2026 general election? The [Sweden Democrats](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweden_Democrats) are a nationalist populist political party currently holding 20.5 % of the 349 seats of the Swedish parliament. Seats are awarded to... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Sweden Democrats will win 81.2 parliamentary seats in the Swedish 2026 general election? The [Sweden Democrats](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweden_Democrats) are a nationalist populist political party currently holding 20.5 % of the 349 seats of the Swedish parliament. Seats are awarded to... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Sweden Democrats will win 81.2 parliamentary seats in the Swedish 2026 general election? The [Sweden Democrats](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweden_Democrats) are a nationalist populist political party currently holding 20.5 % of the 349 seats of the Swedish parliament. Seats are awarded to... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Germany will decide about its nuclear waste repository by 2040? So far, Germany only has intermediate storage facilities for nuclear waste but no ultimate disposal place (Endlager). The german parliament (Bundestag) intended to make a decision by 2031 but the organization looking for a place (BA... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next UK general election will take place on Nov 11, 2024? When [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/) was created, May 2024 was the latest possible date for a UK general election.
Since then, election law was changed, moving that latest possible ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Germany will decide about its nuclear waste repository by 2040? So far, Germany only has intermediate storage facilities for nuclear waste but no ultimate disposal place (Endlager). The german parliament (Bundestag) intended to make a decision by 2031 but the organization looking for a place (BA... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Russia will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next UK general election will take place on Nov 11, 2024? When [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/) was created, May 2024 was the latest possible date for a UK general election.
Since then, election law was changed, moving that latest possible ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Russia will not have open borders with all Schengen Area members by January 11, 2035? The [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) is formed by a group of European countries that have agreed to abolish border control at their mutual borders.
Countries may join Schengen as a ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Germany will decide about its nuclear waste repository by 2040? So far, Germany only has intermediate storage facilities for nuclear waste but no ultimate disposal place (Endlager). The german parliament (Bundestag) intended to make a decision by 2031 but the organization looking for a place (BA... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the next UK general election will take place on Nov 11, 2024? When [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/) was created, May 2024 was the latest possible date for a UK general election.
Since then, election law was changed, moving that latest possible ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Climate Clock will hit zero by Nov 2028? The [Climate Clock](https://climateclock.world/) tracks the amount of time remaining before the [carbon budget estimated by the IPCC](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/) to limit global warming to 1.5ºC runs out. Put differently, the Clock shows how ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 299 FDIC banks will fail in 2023 through 2030? This question is identical to [one authored by Anastasia on March 11, 2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15416/how-many-fdic-banks-will-fail-in-2023/). The only difference is that I have extended the time horizon to include the entire remain... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 299 FDIC banks will fail in 2023 through 2030? This question is identical to [one authored by Anastasia on March 11, 2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15416/how-many-fdic-banks-will-fail-in-2023/). The only difference is that I have extended the time horizon to include the entire remain... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 299 FDIC banks will fail in 2023 through 2030? This question is identical to [one authored by Anastasia on March 11, 2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15416/how-many-fdic-banks-will-fail-in-2023/). The only difference is that I have extended the time horizon to include the entire remain... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Climate Clock will hit zero by Nov 2028? The [Climate Clock](https://climateclock.world/) tracks the amount of time remaining before the [carbon budget estimated by the IPCC](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/) to limit global warming to 1.5ºC runs out. Put differently, the Clock shows how ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Climate Clock will hit zero by Nov 2028? The [Climate Clock](https://climateclock.world/) tracks the amount of time remaining before the [carbon budget estimated by the IPCC](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/) to limit global warming to 1.5ºC runs out. Put differently, the Clock shows how ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will collapse by 2049? The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is "[a system of ocean currents that circulates water within the Atlantic Ocean, bringing warm water north and cold water south.](https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/amoc... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will collapse by 2049? The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is "[a system of ocean currents that circulates water within the Atlantic Ocean, bringing warm water north and cold water south.](https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/amoc... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that room-temperature and -pressure superconductivity will be achieved by 2079? Recently, South Korean scientists uploaded an [unreviewed paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) claiming to have synthesized a material, LK-99, that is superconductive at room temperature and pressure. The implications... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that satellite-based monitoring systems will first accurately measure global CO2 and CH4 emissions in real-time by 2027? Satellite-based monitoring systems have emerged as a vital tool in the fight against climate change. These systems [can collect invaluable data](https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/ca... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that room-temperature and -pressure superconductivity will be achieved by 2079? Recently, South Korean scientists uploaded an [unreviewed paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) claiming to have synthesized a material, LK-99, that is superconductive at room temperature and pressure. The implications... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that room-temperature and -pressure superconductivity will be achieved by 2079? Recently, South Korean scientists uploaded an [unreviewed paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) claiming to have synthesized a material, LK-99, that is superconductive at room temperature and pressure. The implications... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will collapse by 2049? The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is "[a system of ocean currents that circulates water within the Atlantic Ocean, bringing warm water north and cold water south.](https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/amoc... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that satellite-based monitoring systems will first accurately measure global CO2 and CH4 emissions in real-time by 2027? Satellite-based monitoring systems have emerged as a vital tool in the fight against climate change. These systems [can collect invaluable data](https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/ca... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that satellite-based monitoring systems will first accurately measure global CO2 and CH4 emissions in real-time by 2027? Satellite-based monitoring systems have emerged as a vital tool in the fight against climate change. These systems [can collect invaluable data](https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/ca... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will end daylight savings time by Oct 2028? [Daylight savings time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daylight_saving_time_in_the_United_States) (DST) is when clocks get moved one hour ahead of where they would have been.
In the US every year (as of 2023) it:
- starts on the second Sunday i... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will end daylight savings time by Oct 2028? [Daylight savings time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daylight_saving_time_in_the_United_States) (DST) is when clocks get moved one hour ahead of where they would have been.
In the US every year (as of 2023) it:
- starts on the second Sunday i... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 179 before the year 2080? [High temperature superconductors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity) have been an area of active research since their discovery in 1986.
Supercon... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor will not be used in a medical MRI before December 2039? In late July, 2023, a research group [claimed in a preprint](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) to have developed the first room-temperature and ambient-pressure [superconductor](https:/... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 179 before the year 2080? [High temperature superconductors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity) have been an area of active research since their discovery in 1986.
Supercon... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor will be 179 before the year 2080? [High temperature superconductors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity) have been an area of active research since their discovery in 1986.
Supercon... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will end daylight savings time by Oct 2028? [Daylight savings time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daylight_saving_time_in_the_United_States) (DST) is when clocks get moved one hour ahead of where they would have been.
In the US every year (as of 2023) it:
- starts on the second Sunday i... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.97% in the following months (May-24)? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.co... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor will not be used in a medical MRI before December 2039? In late July, 2023, a research group [claimed in a preprint](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) to have developed the first room-temperature and ambient-pressure [superconductor](https:/... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.97% in the following months (May-24)? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.co... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor will not be used in a medical MRI before December 2039? In late July, 2023, a research group [claimed in a preprint](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) to have developed the first room-temperature and ambient-pressure [superconductor](https:/... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.97% in the following months (May-24)? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.co... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 4.02 in the following months (June-24)? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.co... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 4.06 in the following months (July-24)? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.co... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 4.02 in the following months (June-24)? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.co... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
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