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What is the chance that TOP 09 will win 11.7 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that each party will win 7.90 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election (Mayors and Independents (STAN))?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) will win 18.2 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that TOP 09 will win 11.7 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Christian Democratic Party (KDU-ČSL) will win 9.4 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Christian Democratic Party (KDU-ČSL) will win 9.4 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Social Democrats (ČSSD) will win 50% of seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that each party will win 7.90 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election (Mayors and Independents (STAN))?
0.5
Metaculus
How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election according to Robert Šlachta's Oath (Přísaha)?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Communist Party (KSČM) will win 75% of seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Pirate Party will win 13.1 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Social Democrats (ČSSD) will win 50% of seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
0.5
Metaculus
How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election according to Robert Šlachta's Oath (Přísaha)?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Communist Party (KSČM) will win 75% of seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
0.75
Metaculus
How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election according to Robert Šlachta's Oath (Přísaha)?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Christian Democratic Party (KDU-ČSL) will win 9.4 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Social Democrats (ČSSD) will win 50% of seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Greens will win 1.01 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Greens will win 1.01 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the average five-year survival rate of all cancers will exceed 95% by 2040?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States will be 3.26% in the year 2028?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Communist Party (KSČM) will win 75% of seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the Greens will win 1.01 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States will be 3.26% in the year 2028?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.56k on the last day of the following years (End of 2024)?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.56k on the last day of the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 1.67k on the last day of the following years? (End of 2025)
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the average five-year survival rate of all cancers will exceed 95% by 2040?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the average five-year survival rate of all cancers will exceed 95% by 2040?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States will be 3.26% in the year 2028?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.56k on the last day of the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.56k on the last day of the following years (End of 2024)?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.56k on the last day of the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.37k on the last day of the following years (End of 2026)?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.56k on the last day of the following years (End of 2024)?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 1.67k on the last day of the following years? (End of 2025)
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.37k on the last day of the following years (End of 2026)?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.37k on the last day of the following years (End of 2026)?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 1.82k on the last day of the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that Google will be supplanted as the top search engine in the world by market share by 2058? As of December 2021, [Google held a 92%+ share](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share) of the global search engine market, a percentage that has been steadily increasing over the last 5 years...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 1.67k on the last day of the following years? (End of 2025)
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 3.36k on the last day of the following years? (End of 2028)
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 3.36k on the last day of the following years? (End of 2028)
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 1.82k on the last day of the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that Saturday Night Live will end by 2031? *Saturday Night Live* (SNL) is an American variety/comedy show. Its first episode aired on October 11, 1975. As of 2024, [it has won 84 Emmys](https://www.nbc.com/nbc-insider/how-many-emmys-has-saturday-night-live-won). Its ever-changing cast has included m...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 3.36k on the last day of the following years? (End of 2028)
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that Saturday Night Live will end by 2031? *Saturday Night Live* (SNL) is an American variety/comedy show. Its first episode aired on October 11, 1975. As of 2024, [it has won 84 Emmys](https://www.nbc.com/nbc-insider/how-many-emmys-has-saturday-night-live-won). Its ever-changing cast has included m...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 1.82k on the last day of the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that "artificial intelligence" will be mentioned in White House Press Briefings 17.8 times in 2024? The White House releases [Press Briefings](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/) on events or developments it considers important. As such, one measure of how much political salien...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that Saturday Night Live will end by 2031? *Saturday Night Live* (SNL) is an American variety/comedy show. Its first episode aired on October 11, 1975. As of 2024, [it has won 84 Emmys](https://www.nbc.com/nbc-insider/how-many-emmys-has-saturday-night-live-won). Its ever-changing cast has included m...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that "artificial intelligence" will be mentioned in White House Press Briefings 17.8 times in 2024? The White House releases [Press Briefings](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/) on events or developments it considers important. As such, one measure of how much political salien...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 5.62M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 5.62M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that "artificial intelligence" will be mentioned in White House Press Briefings 17.8 times in 2024? The White House releases [Press Briefings](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/) on events or developments it considers important. As such, one measure of how much political salien...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that Google will be supplanted as the top search engine in the world by market share by 2058? As of December 2021, [Google held a 92%+ share](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share) of the global search engine market, a percentage that has been steadily increasing over the last 5 years...
0.75
Metaculus
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? (2028) Keyword: 4.63M Percentage: 50% Reframed Question: What is the chance that 4.63M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? The number of articles published in scientific and technical journals is a reason...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that Google will be supplanted as the top search engine in the world by market share by 2058? As of December 2021, [Google held a 92%+ share](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share) of the global search engine market, a percentage that has been steadily increasing over the last 5 years...
0.75
Metaculus
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years (2038)? (5.34M) Reframed Question: What is the chance that 5.34M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years (2038)?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 5.62M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?
0.75
Metaculus
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? (2048) Keyword: 6.78M Percentage: 25% Reframed Question: What is the chance that 6.78M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? (2028) Keyword: 4.63M Percentage: 50% Reframed Question: What is the chance that 4.63M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? The number of articles published in scientific and technical journals is a reason...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Aug 2027?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Aug 2027?
0.5
Metaculus
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? (2028) Keyword: 4.63M Percentage: 50% Reframed Question: What is the chance that 4.63M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? The number of articles published in scientific and technical journals is a reason...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Aug 2027?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Aug 2027?
0.5
Metaculus
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? (2048) Keyword: 6.78M Percentage: 25% Reframed Question: What is the chance that 6.78M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Aug 2027?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with (4) times more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Sep 2028?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 6 times more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Jan 2034? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with (4) times more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Sep 2028?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Aug 2027?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by April 2025? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) an...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with (4) times more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Sep 2028?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 6 times more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Jan 2034? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 2038 times more compute than GPT-4 will be released by 2038?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by April 2025? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) an...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by April 2025? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) an...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by Sep 2027? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) and ...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with (4) orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by Sep 2031? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) an...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by Sep 2027? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) and ...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by Sep 2027? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) and ...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 6 times more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Jan 2034? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with (4) orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by Sep 2031? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) an...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 2038 times more compute than GPT-4 will be released by 2038?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with (4) orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by Sep 2031? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) an...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 2038 times more compute than GPT-4 will be released by 2038?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 2036 times more compute than GPT-4 will be released by 2036? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) and overall [superi...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 2036 times more compute than GPT-4 will be released by 2036? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) and overall [superi...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 2036 times more compute than GPT-4 will be released by 2036? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) and overall [superi...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above the given figures will be openly run by an AI CEO by 2041? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wiki...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above the given figures will be openly run by an AI CEO by 2041? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wiki...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above $1 billion will be openly run by an AI CEO before 2100? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wikiped...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above $1 trillion will not be openly run by an AI CEO by 2100? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wikipe...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above $1 billion will be openly run by an AI CEO before 2100? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wikiped...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above $1 trillion will not be openly run by an AI CEO by 2100? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wikipe...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above the given figures will be openly run by an AI CEO by 2041? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wiki...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 6.00% in the year 2028? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 6.00% in the year 2028? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above $1 trillion will not be openly run by an AI CEO by 2100? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wikipe...
0.75
Metaculus