text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
What is the chance that TOP 09 will win 11.7 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each party will win 7.90 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election (Mayors and Independents (STAN))? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) will win 18.2 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that TOP 09 will win 11.7 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Christian Democratic Party (KDU-ČSL) will win 9.4 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Christian Democratic Party (KDU-ČSL) will win 9.4 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Social Democrats (ČSSD) will win 50% of seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each party will win 7.90 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election (Mayors and Independents (STAN))? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election according to Robert Šlachta's Oath (Přísaha)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Communist Party (KSČM) will win 75% of seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Pirate Party will win 13.1 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Social Democrats (ČSSD) will win 50% of seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election according to Robert Šlachta's Oath (Přísaha)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Communist Party (KSČM) will win 75% of seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election according to Robert Šlachta's Oath (Přísaha)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Christian Democratic Party (KDU-ČSL) will win 9.4 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Social Democrats (ČSSD) will win 50% of seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Greens will win 1.01 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Greens will win 1.01 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average five-year survival rate of all cancers will exceed 95% by 2040? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States will be 3.26% in the year 2028? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Communist Party (KSČM) will win 75% of seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Greens will win 1.01 seats in the 2025 Czech legislative election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States will be 3.26% in the year 2028? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.56k on the last day of the following years (End of 2024)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.56k on the last day of the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 1.67k on the last day of the following years? (End of 2025) | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average five-year survival rate of all cancers will exceed 95% by 2040? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average five-year survival rate of all cancers will exceed 95% by 2040? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States will be 3.26% in the year 2028? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.56k on the last day of the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.56k on the last day of the following years (End of 2024)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.56k on the last day of the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.37k on the last day of the following years (End of 2026)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.56k on the last day of the following years (End of 2024)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 1.67k on the last day of the following years? (End of 2025) | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.37k on the last day of the following years (End of 2026)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 2.37k on the last day of the following years (End of 2026)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 1.82k on the last day of the following years? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Google will be supplanted as the top search engine in the world by market share by 2058? As of December 2021, [Google held a 92%+ share](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share) of the global search engine market, a percentage that has been steadily increasing over the last 5 years... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 1.67k on the last day of the following years? (End of 2025) | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 3.36k on the last day of the following years? (End of 2028) | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 3.36k on the last day of the following years? (End of 2028) | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 1.82k on the last day of the following years? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Saturday Night Live will end by 2031? *Saturday Night Live* (SNL) is an American variety/comedy show. Its first episode aired on October 11, 1975. As of 2024, [it has won 84 Emmys](https://www.nbc.com/nbc-insider/how-many-emmys-has-saturday-night-live-won). Its ever-changing cast has included m... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 3.36k on the last day of the following years? (End of 2028) | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Saturday Night Live will end by 2031? *Saturday Night Live* (SNL) is an American variety/comedy show. Its first episode aired on October 11, 1975. As of 2024, [it has won 84 Emmys](https://www.nbc.com/nbc-insider/how-many-emmys-has-saturday-night-live-won). Its ever-changing cast has included m... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that NVIDIA's market capitalization will be 1.82k on the last day of the following years? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that "artificial intelligence" will be mentioned in White House Press Briefings 17.8 times in 2024? The White House releases [Press Briefings](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/) on events or developments it considers important. As such, one measure of how much political salien... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Saturday Night Live will end by 2031? *Saturday Night Live* (SNL) is an American variety/comedy show. Its first episode aired on October 11, 1975. As of 2024, [it has won 84 Emmys](https://www.nbc.com/nbc-insider/how-many-emmys-has-saturday-night-live-won). Its ever-changing cast has included m... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that "artificial intelligence" will be mentioned in White House Press Briefings 17.8 times in 2024? The White House releases [Press Briefings](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/) on events or developments it considers important. As such, one measure of how much political salien... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.62M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.62M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that "artificial intelligence" will be mentioned in White House Press Briefings 17.8 times in 2024? The White House releases [Press Briefings](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/) on events or developments it considers important. As such, one measure of how much political salien... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Google will be supplanted as the top search engine in the world by market share by 2058? As of December 2021, [Google held a 92%+ share](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share) of the global search engine market, a percentage that has been steadily increasing over the last 5 years... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? (2028)
Keyword: 4.63M
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 4.63M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? The number of articles published in scientific and technical journals is a reason... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Google will be supplanted as the top search engine in the world by market share by 2058? As of December 2021, [Google held a 92%+ share](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share) of the global search engine market, a percentage that has been steadily increasing over the last 5 years... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years (2038)? (5.34M)
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 5.34M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years (2038)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 5.62M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? (2048)
Keyword: 6.78M
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 6.78M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? (2028)
Keyword: 4.63M
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 4.63M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? The number of articles published in scientific and technical journals is a reason... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Aug 2027? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Aug 2027? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? (2028)
Keyword: 4.63M
Percentage: 50%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 4.63M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? The number of articles published in scientific and technical journals is a reason... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Aug 2027? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Aug 2027? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? (2048)
Keyword: 6.78M
Percentage: 25%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 6.78M scientific journal articles will be published in the following years? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Aug 2027? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with (4) times more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Sep 2028? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 6 times more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Jan 2034? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with (4) times more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Sep 2028? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Aug 2027? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by April 2025? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) an... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with (4) times more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Sep 2028? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 6 times more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Jan 2034? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 2038 times more compute than GPT-4 will be released by 2038? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by April 2025? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) an... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by April 2025? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) an... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by Sep 2027? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) and ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with (4) orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by Sep 2031? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) an... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by Sep 2027? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) and ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with an order of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by Sep 2027? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) and ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 6 times more compute than GPT-4 will be downloadable by the general public by Jan 2034? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with (4) orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by Sep 2031? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) an... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 2038 times more compute than GPT-4 will be released by 2038? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with (4) orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 will be released by Sep 2031? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) an... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 2038 times more compute than GPT-4 will be released by 2038? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 2036 times more compute than GPT-4 will be released by 2036? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) and overall [superi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 2036 times more compute than GPT-4 will be released by 2036? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) and overall [superi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that an AI model trained with 2036 times more compute than GPT-4 will be released by 2036? [OpenAI's GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) made waves upon its release in March, 2023, for its [multimodality](https://community.openai.com/t/gpt4-multi-modality-audio-video/316041) and overall [superi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above the given figures will be openly run by an AI CEO by 2041? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wiki... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above the given figures will be openly run by an AI CEO by 2041? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wiki... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above $1 billion will be openly run by an AI CEO before 2100? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wikiped... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above $1 trillion will not be openly run by an AI CEO by 2100? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wikipe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above $1 billion will be openly run by an AI CEO before 2100? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wikiped... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above $1 trillion will not be openly run by an AI CEO by 2100? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wikipe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above the given figures will be openly run by an AI CEO by 2041? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wiki... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 6.00% in the year 2028? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 6.00% in the year 2028? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above $1 trillion will not be openly run by an AI CEO by 2100? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wikipe... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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