text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Before 2030 AI causes death of more than 5% of humans in less than a 3 month period. | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will a large-scale solar geoengineering project be implemented by 2035? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Type III Superconductivity Theory be proven before 2025? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Brazilian Congress pass any income tax reform until the end of 2027? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will the North Atlantic Current collapse before 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Usain Bolt’s 100m record be broken at the 2024 Enhanced Games? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will an adversarial attack for the human brain, a la "basilisk" from BLIT, be discovered by 2030? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Kanno Yoko produce an anime soundtrack before the end of 2025? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Existential risk markets banned on Manifold before 2030 | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Nayib Bukele be the leader of El Salvador in 2030? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Illinois be closer than Indiana in the 2024 POTUS election? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will the youth turnout rate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election be above 50%? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will Hunter Biden receive a presidential pardon before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Mrbeast’s main channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel on June 1st 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump use his Twitter / X.com account before 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will glacial pathogens kill more than 10 people before before 2025? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will HealthyGamer.gg shut down their coaching program before 2025? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will humans go extinct before 2100? [Resolves to Metaculus in 2027] | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Adept AI be valued at $20B or greater by the end of 2026? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027] | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027] | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will cryopreserved brains at Tomorrow.Bio be safe until the end of 2024? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will supersonic jets be accessible for civilian travel by 2029? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue before the end of 2024? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Kevin Spacey appear in a new Netflix TV show or movie before 2025? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will the German Jugger Rules explicitly regulate simultaneous hitting and pinning before 2025? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will the German Jugger rules adopt a mandatory qwik-referee before 2025? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Threads rebrand before 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Twitter / X.com provide voice and video call services before 2024? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Antoine Griezmann play an MLS league match by the end of 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the U.S. attempt a large scale Solar Radiation Modification geoengineering project before 2030? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will Music Streaming be replaced by a new thing by 2025? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be charged with a federal crime before the end of 2028? | 0.07 | Manifold |
In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030) | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Jake Paul and Logan Paul compete against one another in a boxing match before the end of 2026? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Twitter collapse by the end of 2030? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will Coinbase be insolvent by the end of 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Kucoin be insolvent by the end of 2024? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Neuralink showcase a monkey on stage by the end of 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Gemini be insolvent by the end of 2024? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will WARP take place in 2024? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will Huobi be insolvent by the end of 2024? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Kucoin be insolvent by the end of 2024? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will the Atlas Fellowship disband and not run next year (2024)? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will a new species of Monkey be discovered by the end of 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Monkey wipe out humanity before the year 2050? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will a human pass the asteroid belt before 2044? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will a new species of Monkey (Primate) be discovered by 28 July 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel before 2034? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will a major space agency announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life on Europa or Enceladus before 2035 | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will monkey and human communicate via Neuralink before 2030? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Google try their luck with a new social network before the end of 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will there be a federal election in Canada in 2025? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Monkey do magic by 2030? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will monkey beat Minecraft by 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will governments around the world have announced massive public spending into superconductor research by 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will you be able to float globs of ferrofluid in your room by 2030? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine get F-16 fighters early 2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will we have a floating city before 2050? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will we mine material in space to be sold on earth by 2026? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will RFK Jr. end up running as an Independent in 2024? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will a minor battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Replit be valued at $20B or greater by the end of 2025? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will David Grusch (UFO whistleblower) be alive in 2025? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will Salvatore Pais' "UFO" patent be publicly demonstrated before 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will all old tweets be lost by June 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will the Republican Party conduct any official primary debates for the 2024 Presidential election? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will the Democratic Party conduct any official primary debates for the 2024 Presidential election? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will aliens be taxed before 2035 | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Ireland give up its neutrality before 2027? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will there be a full brain scan of any mammal by 2030? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will ETH trade for above $2200 at any time in 2023 | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Studio Khara release one more Rebuild of Evangelion movie by 2030, about the events between 2.0 and 3.0? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Conditional on room temp superconductors by the end of the year, will we have commercial nuclear fusion by 2030? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will there exist a scholarly consensus in the year 3000 affirming the existence of Jesus as a historical figure? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will Antonio Brown score an NFL touchdown before the end of 2025? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Apple announce a foldable phone or tablet before 2027? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will the New York Times stop selling printed weekday editions in retail stores by the end of 2025? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will an alien "wipe out" a human before 2100 (read desc.) | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Bryan Johnson achieve his goal of aging escape velocity before 2030? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will TYT's Ana Kasparian star in a "Why I Left the Left" video for PragerU by 2026? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will any general election debates be held for the 2024 US presidential election? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will someone do a walking Triffus in trampwall by the end of 2025? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will the monthly average atmospheric CO2 levels at Mauna Loa reach 425 ppm or more in 2024? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will the "room temperature superconductivity by 2025" market become the biggest market on Manifold? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will Mitch McConnell resign or die before the end of his term in 2027? | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will we have cold fusion by 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will VanMoof be bought or revived before 2024? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Cannabis or cannabinoids replace opioids for chronic pain management by 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Russia break up through 2025 | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029 | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will the Kurds have a homeland recognized as a nation by the UN before 2029 | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will a nuclear propelled rocket be tested in space before 2027? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Conditional on uploading tech, will cryopreserved brains also be uploaded by 2100? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will tesla stock be above $420 on 4/20 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will any G20 leader announce the existence of non human intelligence in our solar system by the end of 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel through 2024 | 0.05 | Manifold |
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