text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
In 2030, will the majority of the top 10 blogs in Substack’s Politics category be written by humans? | 0.86 | Manifold |
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement? | 0.53 | Manifold |
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less? | 0.19 | Manifold |
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less? | 0.71 | Manifold |
If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will Destiny be alive by 2024? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026? (4000M subsidy) | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Lüzerath be dug away for cole before 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will the Meta's Metaverse be the mainstream way for businesses to hold work meetings by 2027? | 0.07 | Manifold |
The US has a Hindu president by 2042 | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will we make contact with intelligent aliens by 2050? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Michelle Bolsonaro either be elected president of Brazil or be the runner up in the 2026 presidential election? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will SBF be in prison by June 2024 | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes) | 0.7 | Manifold |
Tsunami risk in Japan until mid 2030 | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk have more than 200 million Twitter followers at the end of 2024 | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin "Volcano Bonds" from El Salvador be issued by 2025? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will there be a VR/AR bubble by 2029? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will the renovation of Stary Rynek in Poznań be completed before 2024? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will The Congress Hall (Sala Kongresowa) in Warsaw open before 2025? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Does the Republican candidate for president in 2024 need Trump's endorsement to win? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the Żuraw in Gdańsk complete its renovation before summer 2024? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will the groundhog see its shadow on Groundhog's Day 2024? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will Manifold do something for Groundhog Day 2024? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of people's workflows in developed nations by 2027 | 0.77 | Manifold |
Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will the UK implement a general exception to copyright for "text and data mining" by the end of 2024? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will any of the United Nations states completely abolish copyright by 2030? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will apple announce a foldable ipad or iphone by 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Cory Booker win the South Carolina Democratic Primary in 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will someone create a credible "Draft Cory Booker for 2024" website by 2024? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Cory Booker run for president in 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will tether collapse before 2033? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Sitting US president visits Cuban Government Leaders in Cuba before 2034 | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Josh Hawley (American politician) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Manifold add a "Permanent" market type before 2024? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will Turkey remain a member of NATO by 2030? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Binance collapse before the end of 2024? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will it cost $30 to train a GPT-3 level model in 2030? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will the Atlassian HQ building in central Sydney open on schedule in 2027? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will a major financial news outlet write an editorial saying that deglobalization concerns were overblown by 2026? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the Zillow's Rentals Data indicate a decrease in San Francisco's median rent at the end of 2026? | 0.35 | Manifold |
In 2030, will more than 30 million people in the US aged 18+ have tried ecstasy (MDMA/molly) in their lifetimes? | 0.41 | Manifold |
In 2030, will more than 10 million people in the US aged 18+ have tried ketamine in their lifetimes? | 0.76 | Manifold |
In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will there be a new major longtermist funder before the end of 2024? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Hillary Clinton be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Apple ship a foldable iPad before 2025? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Chris Sununu be elected president (in 2024)? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will Chris Sununu run for president (by 2024)? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will "You Resign Now Chess" be solved by 2040? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Russian athletes be barred from the 2024 Olympics | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will the first SMR nuclear power plant in Poland produce energy before 2029? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will we get conclusive evidence to prove that ALTO-100 performs better than placebo against Depression and/or PTSD before 2027? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2024? | 0.97 | Manifold |
CA cities failing their housing element is gonna be a colossal ($100s Billions) deal, in hindsight in 2025 | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Ludwig and QT still be dating at the end of 2025? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Sweden send fighter jets to Ukraine before 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Spotify change the 'pro-rata' payout system by Jul 2024? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will more than 100,000 people live in Prospera by 2035? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will more than 100,000 people live in a line-shaped city in Saudi Arabia in 2035? eg The Line | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Aella be romantically involved with Lex Fridman by the end of 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it mostly because of a judicial ruling? | 0.44 | Manifold |
If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because of actions by Congress? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will at least 10 for-profit corporations create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will China have a higher Nominal GDP than the US by 2030? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will a California State entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will a U.S. State Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will a U.S. Federal Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will the Green Party embrace YIMBYism in their 2024 party platform? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the American Solidarity Party embrace YIMBYism in their 2024 party platform? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will the Libertarians embrace YIMBYism in their 2024 party platform? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will the Republicans embrace YIMBYism in their 2024 party platform? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will the Democrats embrace YIMBYism in their 2024 party platform? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will we see significant software patent reform in the USA before 2030? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will US copyright terms be shortened by any amount before 2030? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Is there a 5-State binary tape Turing machine that halts in more than 47176870 steps? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the Charity Commission's statutory inquiry into Effective Ventures UK (EVF) result in a public report finding significant misconduct and/or mismanagement by 12/2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will the Charity Commission's statutory inquiry into Effective Ventures UK (EVF) result in significant regulatory action by 12/2025? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Taylor Swift publicly come out as gay, bisexual, or queer before the end of 2030? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Rumble reach a $10 billion market cap before 2026? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will SBF make any post or comment on the EA forum before 2025? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will any new cryptocurrency become more popular than Bitcoin or Etherium before 2033? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will the Curiosity rover still be operational at the beginning of 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail before 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will any spacecraft visit at least 3 astronomical bodies before 2040? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will the James Webb Space Telescope still be operational at the beginning of 2038? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will there be at least 10,000 people in Greenland on December 15th, 2039? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will Memestiny resolve a market dishonorably by the end of 2025? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk retweet, quote tweet, or reply to any of Aella's polls by the end of 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
If Donald Trump wins the presidency in 2024, will he get banned from any major social media site at any point during his term? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Conditional on *not* being nominated by the Republican party, will Donald Trump tweet before the end of 2024? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Conditional on being nominated by the Republican party, will Donald Trump tweet before the end of 2024? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will Edward Snowden still be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will Julian Assange still be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 0.83 | Manifold |
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