text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Elon Musk be featured on a Grimes song by end of 2025? | 0.24 | Manifold |
By 2037, will there be a new "match of the century" in chess? | 0.3 | Manifold |
Will asteroid mining ever be profitable before 2050? | 0.28 | Manifold |
By 2073, will it be possible for humans to regrow functional, fully biological limbs? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Starship point-to-point fly commercial customers before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will proponents of an Indigenous Voice to Parliament in Australia win a referendum on the topic before 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will Russian Athletes be banned from the 2024 Olympics? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Least point odds for white in a solved odds chess game by 2040 | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden forget what he was saying during an election debate before 2025? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will either China or the United States shoot down a manned aircraft belonging to the other one before 2025? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will any sitting or former member of Congress or state governor run in the Democratic Party primary for the 2024 Presidential Election? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will the USA get attacked by China at home before 2025? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Reparations by 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will a vaccine for preventing periodontal disease in humans be available in the U.S. before 2035? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party Nominee for President for the 2028 election? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Alvea develop a drug that reaches the market by the end of 2026? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will there exist a largely risk-free cure for Eye Floaters by the end of 2024? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk's Roadster be returned to Earth by 2100? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Idaho take 10%+ of Oregon's land before 2030? | 0.06 | Manifold |
At the beginning of 2028, will .info still be the most popular TLD of >3 letters? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be legally barred from running in the 2024 Presidential election? | 0.11 | Manifold |
"Britcoin" by 2030? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will FiveThirtyEight’s default 2024 Senate model use expert ratings (be “Deluxe”)? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will a Nobel Prize in physics be awarded to a woman before 2027? | 0.5 | Manifold |
At the beginning of 2032, will people in the United States still be using physical coins or cash on a frequent basis? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will an asteroid be mined for minerals before 2040? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will any state in the United States be carbon neutral before 2050? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will the United States be carbon neutral before 2050? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 Olympics go ahead as planned without major disruption? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will any country leave the EU before 2028? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Before 2028, will popular mobile phones begin incorporating folding screens or other large moving parts? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will the United States GDP cross $30 trillion before 2030? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will it be illegal to serve foie gras in NYC restaurants any time before 2028? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will it be legal for California restaurants to serve foie gras any time before 2028? | 0.39 | Manifold |
By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent? | 0.2 | Manifold |
By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about data collected from people's brain signals? | 0.34 | Manifold |
By the end of 2024, will any LessWrong, EA, or Alignment forum post with at least 100 upvotes be revealed to have been written by an AI? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will a Manifolder eat cultivated tiger meat before 2025? (pics or it didn't happen) | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will the EA Forum or LessWrong start using EigenKarma by 2025 (public experiments included)? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will a non-American go to the moon by 2030? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will u/Fuzzy-Equivalent5952 reach out to the dgger in their class within a week? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Google send Bard to the graveyard before 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Mr. Beast donate to an EA-aligned charity by the end of 2024? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will the YIMBY/NIMBY divide line up with political affiliation in the USA before 2027? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Vladimir Putin relocate OUT of Russia before the end of 2030? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will there be a moon base by 2030? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will a human land on the moon by 2028? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Bing surpass Google by 2030? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the Denver Broncos make it to the 2024 Super Bowl? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Andrew Yang have been POTUS or had a position in the Cabinet before 2035? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2024 Super Bowl? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030? | 0.29 | Manifold |
In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI, | 0.62 | Manifold |
Does long-term medical stimulant use (for ADHD) have significant, sticky negative cognitive effects? Resolves to judgement end of 2024. | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will 'Mother 3' be officially released outside of Japan before 2025? | 0.22 | Manifold |
By 2100, will there be a new thing people use as their go-to example of maximal evil/tragedy to replace the Nazis/Holocaust? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will any individual reach a total of $1 billion donated to EA aligned charities by the end of 2026? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Massachusetts maintain its trans and LGB laws by 2025? | 0.91 | Manifold |
If Manifold continues to allow mana to be sent to charity or redeemed for other objects of value, will Manifold be valued at >=$33 million USD before the end of 2024? | 0.33 | Manifold |
If Manifold removes the option to send mana to charity or redeem it for anything else of value, will Manifold be valued at >=$33 million USD before the end of 2024? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will an artificial agent ascend in NetHack (version 3.6.6 or later) before the end of 2024? | 0.44 | Manifold |
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #5: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2028? | 0.65 | Manifold |
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #4: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2027? | 0.59 | Manifold |
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #3: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2026? | 0.64 | Manifold |
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #2: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2025? | 0.6 | Manifold |
MMLU 99% #5: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2028? | 0.44 | Manifold |
MMLU 99% #4: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2027? | 0.33 | Manifold |
MMLU 99% #3: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2026? | 0.25 | Manifold |
MMLU 99% #2: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2025? | 0.21 | Manifold |
MMLU 90% #5: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 90% by the start of 2028? | 0.94 | Manifold |
MMLU 90% #4: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 90% by the start of 2027? | 0.9 | Manifold |
MMLU 90% #3: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 90% by the start of 2026? | 0.97 | Manifold |
MMLU 90% #2: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 90% by the start of 2025? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will "bing" be added as a verb in a major English dictionary by 2029? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2030? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2040? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2050? | 0.69 | Manifold |
AI Cult exists by 2027 | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will all characters in movie have an option to have a person's name "hover over" their name so that the face-blind can keep track of who is who, by 2027? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will automation software let me automatically archive my entire Facebook feed by 2026? (with comment threads)? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will any state in the USA implement a universal basic income of at least $10,000 before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will any of the following Western countries experience a national homicide rate above 10 per 100,000 per year before 2030? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will any of the following Western countries' legislatures be majority controlled by explicitly fascist or communist political parties before 2030? | 0.27 | Manifold |
No significant improvement on current government supported capitalism will be running in a 10mn+ settlement/country by 2040 | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 United States presidential election? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will the relative earnings of college graduates decrease by 2030? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will any Manifold market type work with real money on 2024-01-01? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Sam Altman be Time Person of the Year by 2028? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Major revelation about Biden's health, negative, before 2026 | 0.76 | Manifold |
Major revelation about Trump's health, negative, before 2026 | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will Hello Internet upload a new episode by 2024? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be candidate to the french presidential election in 2027 | 0.37 | Manifold |
1 BTC = 1 ETH (2025) | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum reach $100,000 by Jun 2029? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by Jun 2029? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will the Javan rhinoceros go extinct before 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
What will my left eye's glasses (negative) SPH prescription be in 2025, if I get an eye test in that year? | 0.37 | Manifold |
What will my right eye's glasses (negative) SPH prescription be in 2025, if I get an eye test in that year? | 0.53 | Manifold |
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