text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Freddie DeBoer join Manifold by the end of 2024? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will the Eiffel Tower still be standing on June 30th, 2036? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will any electric or hydrogen passenger airplane that can seat at least 100 people be in commercial use before 2033? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will CGP Grey make a video that references prediction markets before the end of 2024? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will any city of at least 100,000 people declare itself carbon neutral before 2035? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will Hyperion still be the world's tallest known tree at the beginning of 2030? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will SNEAKO vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will there be a cure for schizophrenia before 2032? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will there be a cure for autism before 2032? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will any aquatic vehicle travel transonically before 2035 | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will there be a successful test of a hypersonic commercial air travel system before 2030? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will any spacecraft beat Huygens's record for farthest landing from Earth before 2040? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will the US lift all sanctions on Iran before 2029? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will HIV be eradicated in humans before 2030? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Malaria be eradicated in humans before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will the US population reach 340 million before 2030? | 0.95 | Manifold |
Will the UK rejoin the EU before 2032? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will any state in the US implement universal basic income before 2030? | 0.92 | Manifold |
If Elon Musk runs for US president before 2033, will they win? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will human teleportation be possible before 2050? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 before 2040? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will flying cars become a widespread mode of individual transportation before 2032? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will solar become the primary source of electricity in the US before 2040? | 0.24 | Manifold |
By 2030, will at least one song in the Billboard Hot 100 have been primarily AI-generated? | 0.89 | Manifold |
By 2025, will at least one song in the Billboard Hot 100 have been primarily AI-generated? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will the UK have a central bank digital currency by the end of 2027? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Ron Desantis be outed as gay by the end of 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will SBF be in prison by Dec 2024 | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year by 2070? [Early Resolution via Metaculus] | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Russia annex Belarus until 2025? | 0.16 | Manifold |
What percent of 100M people will die from H5N1 by end of 2025? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will Voice.ai have to release their source code before June 1st 2024 | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will any spacecraft visit at least 3 astronomical bodies other than the Earth or Sun before 2040? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will low risk stocks outperform the market from now until 2026 (sharpe ratio)? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will the Milady floor be above 10 ETH by 2030? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by Jun 2025? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Republicans in Alaska succeed in putting “abolishing ranked choice voting” on the ballot in the 2024 election? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Republicans in Alaska succeed in revoking ranked choice voting in the 2024 election? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Google search default to a chatbot like interface by end of 2024? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Paul Christiano consider ELK unsolvable by the end of 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Trump starts posting on Twitter before 2026, but explains it as a security mishap, password guess or similar | 0.06 | Manifold |
Conditional on no AGI, will a human brain be uploaded before 2053? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will the mind of a C. elegans roundworm be uploaded before 2033? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will an artificial agent ascend in NetHack before the end of 2024? | 0.93 | Manifold |
Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will a major technology company publicly admit to using a LLM for important decision making before 2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Is 1,000 atoms ever sufficient for the experience of suffering, under any design or any circumstance? (Upgradable KBC, resolves in 2025) | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will an MDMA-Assisted Therapy for Treatment of PTSD be approved by the FDA before the summer of 2024? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will inju come back to twitter before 2024-01-01? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will there be an AI CEO by 2040? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Global population less than 1 billion by 2100 | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will there be an Arctic Blue Ocean Event by 2030? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the EU AI Act enter into force by end of 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on no AGI by 2050? | 0.2 | Manifold |
By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on AGI by 2050? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 before 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Miaoyi Lu win the World Chess Championship no longer than 2037? | 0.16 | Manifold |
By 2026, will Gene Haas sell Haas Formula 1 Team? | 0.64 | Manifold |
In 2025, what % of EA lists "AI risk" as their top cause? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the US have a President not nominated by either Republican or Democratic party by 2050? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis be the Republican 2024 nominee? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Is BB(5) 4098? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Will any spacecraft land on at least 3 astronomical bodies before 2040? | 0.42 | Manifold |
By 2026, will the majority of the USA flu vaccine supply be egg-free? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman interview Joe Biden by 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Asa Hutchison seek the GOP nomination in 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will a third party candidate receive an electoral college vote in 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump debate Mike Pence during the 2024 GOP primary? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a presidential debate together during the 2024 election? | 0.5 | Manifold |
By the end of 2040, will there be strong evidence of life (of non-terrestrial origin) in our solar system? | 0.28 | Manifold |
How many YES shares will be owned on "[free money] What is the risk-free interest rate on my markets through the end of 2024?" at close? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Sweden ban the burning of the Quran to appease Turkey by 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
[free money] What is the risk-free interest rate on my markets through the end of 2024? | 0.01 | Manifold |
Will an Atlas Fellow launch an AGI startup worth >$1 million by 2030? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will Meta, Alphabet, Amazon or Microsoft invest in Conjecture before 2026? | 0.4 | Manifold |
How many housing units will be built in California by 2025 because of 2022-2023 'builder's remedy' permits? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will more than 1 in 5 US adults use marijuana in a typical month of 2030? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Binance collapse before the end of 2025? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the US admit more than 2 million immigrants in any year before 2030? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will the US admit more than 2 million immigrants in any year before 2025? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Russian and Ukraine still be fighting in June 2024? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will the two Irish Tayto brands unite by 2030? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will anyone with at least 50,000 fans be discovered to have been using an anonymous Manifold account by the end of 2024? | 0.64 | Manifold |
In 2025, what percentage of EAs are non-male? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will at least 100,000 Americans die of H5N1 by the end of 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will at least 500,000 Americans die of H5N1 by the end of 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will my robotics team (6418) finish building our drivetrain by Thursday of next week? | 0.21 | Manifold |
By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk become left-coded again before 2035? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will the UK apply to rejoin the EU before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will greyhounds be allowed off-leash in Victoria, Australia by 2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Destiny be resurrected between 2025 and 2030? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will 10,000 Americans die of H5N1 before the end of 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will 10,000 people die of H5N1 before the end of 2024? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will the dodo be de-extincted before 2040? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will there be a serious neo-Luddite movement (complete with major organizations and funding topping ~$1 Million USD) by 2030? | 0.73 | Manifold |
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