text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Elon Musk join Mastodon by the end of 2024? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Manifold break its current record of 2490 daily users by the end of 2023? | 1 | Manifold |
Will an AI be elected into any political office in any country before 2035? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will the US obesity rate stop rising by 2024? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will the US dollar still be the global reserve currency at the beginning of 2030? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will the US have a (new) homosexual or bisexual president by 2033? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Covid still be considered a global public health emergency in 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk put a Neuralink chip in his brain before 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Twitter accept Bitcoin (BTC) as a method of payment by the end of 2030? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will any drilling project on Earth surpass the depth record of the Kola Superdeep Borehole (~12.3 km) before 2035? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will any human reach 11 km below the Earth's surface before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will an airship capable of lifting 100,000+ kg exist in 2035? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the 2024 presidential election be contested? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will a nice number other than 69 be discovered by the end of 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will the US have an atheist president by 2033? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will the US have a Muslim president by 2033? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will the US have a Jewish president by 2033? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will the right-wing party AfD participate in a state-level government in Germany for the first time in 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Apple launch a folding screen iPad before 2025? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2030? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2025? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will an AI become TIME's Person of The Year by 2030? | 0.76 | Manifold |
By the end of 2024, will anyone have used Manifold to gain fame elsewhere? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will any of the Magic: The Gathering "culturally insensitive cards" be reprinted or unbanned by the end of 2026? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will the first Google result for "MTG" still be Magic: The Gathering at the beginning of 2026? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will the US supreme court contain more than 9 justices before 2030? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Magic bring back banding by 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will there be perfect MTG counterfeits before 2030? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will any MTG tournament have a prize of at least $200,000 to the winner before 2030? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will the comprehensive rulebook of Magic: The Gathering contain no errors at any point before 2030? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the exact value of Busy Beaver(6) be known before 2075? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the exact value of Busy Beaver(5) be known before 2030? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will @Boklam resolve any market in a way that I consider dishonorable by the end of 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Stacey Abrams (American politician) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Joe Biden (U.S. president) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump (U.S. president) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will Kamala Harris (American Vice President, attorney) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Nikki Haley (American diplomat, politician) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Ron DeSantis (American politician, attorney) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Ted Cruz (American politician and attorney) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will Liz Cheney (U.S. attorney and politician) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Pete Buttigieg (U.S. politician) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will John Bolton (American attorney, diplomat, political commentator) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will the winner of the electoral college also win the popular vote in 2024? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Manifold experience serious data loss/corruption by the end of 2024? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Destiny be an effective altruist by the end of 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the Destiny subreddit reach 200k members by the end of 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Global poverty: Will world life expectancy increase to <5 years of the leading large country's life expectancy by 2050? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will the English language still contain the letter Q at the beginning of 2100? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will Costcos in US raise the price of their hot dog and soda combo above $1.50 before the end of 2026? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will the woolly mammoth be de-extincted before 2040? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Petr Pavel win the 2028 Czech presidential election? | 0.71 | Manifold |
How many market types will be available on Manifold on 2024-01-01? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Google still be the most popular search engine at the end of 2024? | 0.92 | Manifold |
Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Caro's fifth LBJ book be published by end of 2024? | 0.21 | Manifold |
If biological humans still exist in 2100, the majority of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will at least 15% of US adults in 2030 have ever used psilocybin/magic mushrooms in their lifetimes? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will we see someone RLHF an LLM specifically for porn/onlyfans by the end of 2024 | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will there be commonly sold shirataki noodles sold *without being wrapped in plastic* by the end of 2027? | 0.68 | Manifold |
If Joe Biden announces a running mate for the 2024 Presidential Election, will it be Kamala Harris? | 0.97 | Manifold |
Will California pass an EU-like ban on single-use plastics by 2026? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will the Future of Humanity Institute exist in 2030? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will any prediction market implement CEO markets before 2025? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will Polska 2050 run together with KO and PSL in the 2023 Polish parliamentary elections? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Polska 2050 run together with Lewica in the 2023 Polish parliamentary elections? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will there be a military conflict between China and the United States by the end of 2025? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will there be a tomb excavation of one of the tombs of the 5 tiger generals of shu by 2035? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will there be a tomb excavation of one of the tombs of the 5 great generals of Wei by 2035? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Elon musk make a tweet about manifold by end of 2024? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Jose Luis ricon finally start regularly taking rapamycin by 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will at least 1 in 6 of US adults (21+) binge alcohol in an average month in 2030? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will Geometry Dash 2.2 release before 2024? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will someone not currently listed on ElectionBettingOdds be elected US President in 2024? | 0.03 | Manifold |
Will at least 50.0% of US adults consume alcohol in an average month in 2030? | 0.65 | Manifold |
In 2030, will Uber be operating with zero CO₂ emissions in Canada, Europe, and the US? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Poland implement a new electoral system for the Sejm before 2030? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Polish government agree to reduce EU member state veto privileges before 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Polish parliament end „Rodzina 500 plus” before 2030? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Polish parliament lift the Sunday retail ban before 2030? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Polish parliament raise the retirement age before 2030? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will Polish parliament equalize the retirement age for men and women before 2030? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will gray hair be mostly reversible before 2035? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will male pattern baldness be curable via medication before 2035? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will at least 5.0% of the US population smoke cigarettes in 2030? | 0.79 | Manifold |
Will at least 8.0% of the U.S. population smoke cigarettes in 2030? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Adam Schiff be elected as US Senator from California in 2024? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Republicans retain control of the U.S House in the 2024 elections? | 0.41 | Manifold |
If atomoxetine is added to the Troof's nootropics survey before 2030, what would it's "Probability of life-changing effect" be? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will TikTok be banned in the United States for the majority of the population by the end of 2024? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Conditional on gas prices being "high" on October 2024, will a democrat win the U.S. 2024 presidential election? | 0.5 | Manifold |
In 2040, will any state of the art AIs do something analogous to sleeping? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will a corporation be elected as the POTUS by end of 2050? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Russia collapses before 2030 | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will there be more robots than humans by 2100? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will Netflix drop the binge-watching model by Jul 2024? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza before 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
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