text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will a candidate explicitly running as a Socialist be elected to Philadelphia City Council by 2027? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will we be able to decode dolphin communication by 2030? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Democrats win the US 2024 elections | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will AI Addiction be recognized and as common as video game addiction by 2026? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Greg Abbott endorse Ron DeSantis for President before the 2024 Texas primary? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Tim Scott endorse Donald Trump for President before the 2024 Iowa Caucuses? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Mitch McConnell endorse Donald Trump for President before the 2024 Iowa Caucuses? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will vegan shrimp be easily purchasable at my local Walmart by the end of 2028? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election? | 0.55 | Manifold |
What will Tesla's valuation be on December 31, 2024 given that it has not completed its first robotaxi fare? | 0.94 | Manifold |
What will Tesla's valuation be on December 31, 2024 given that it has completed its first robotaxi fare? | 0.96 | Manifold |
Will Tesla's first robotaxi fare be sold by the end of 2026? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will Tesla's first robotaxi fare be sold by the end of 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Tesla's first robotaxi fare be sold by the end of 2024? | 0.3 | Manifold |
How many vehicles will Tesla produce in 2026? | 0.91 | Manifold |
Will $TSLA close at $5800 per share or more by December 31 2031? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will the UK be a constitutional monarchy in 2100? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will $TSLA close above $600 per share by December 31 2025? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will the UK be a constitutional monarchy in 2090? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will the UK be a constitutional monarchy in 2080? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will the UK be a constitutional monarchy in 2070? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will the Supreme Court leaker's identity be known by 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will the UK be a constitutional monarchy in 2060? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Kevin McCarthy endorse Donald Trump for President before the 2024 Iowa Caucuses? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will the UK be a constitutional monarchy in 2050? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will the UK be a constitutional monarchy in 2040? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will Alaska use RCV in the 2028 presidential general election? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will at least three US states use RCV in the 2028 presidential general election? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will a candidate from the "Forward Party" be elected to Congress by the end of 2024? | 0.05 | Manifold |
Will there be an accusation of a large language model being used for disinformation during the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will Earth's avg temperature hit 1.5C by the end of 2025 or sooner? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Birthright to Israel be entirely free at the end of 2024? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will the Bitcoin money supply exceed 21 million units any time before 2040? | 0.02 | Manifold |
Will nuclear propulsion be used in any spacecraft before 2050? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will an Effective Altruist run for a US Congress seat in the 2024 elections? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will an Effective Altruist be the Republican Party nominee for a US Congress seat in the 2024 elections? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will an Effective Altruist be the Democratic Party nominee for a US Congress seat in the 2024 elections? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will the top 1% have over 33% of the wealth in US before 2025? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will peak oil demand happens before 2028? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the Supreme Court leaker's identify be known by 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029? | 0.05 | Manifold |
By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$10M/yr using a democratized mechanism before 2025? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$1M/yr using a democratized mechanism before 2025? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will world unemployment reach 20% at any time before 2030? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026? (harder question version) | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will wizards of the coast make/produce a magic: the gathering movie/Tv show by 2035? | 0.75 | Manifold |
Will the "Lojas Americanas" store in my city still be open by the end of 2024? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Twitter surpass YouTube as a video platform by 2030? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Destiny have a kidney stone by 2024? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will Caltrain electrification finish by end of 2025? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Waymo driverless service generally available in New York City by EOY 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Nonlinear exist in 2030? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will it be proven that Berkshire Hathaway was committing enormous systematic fraud by 2033? | 0.07 | Manifold |
Will Russia participate in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030 | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will Iran and the United States establish formal diplomatic relations before 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030 | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2029 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill receives Royal Assent? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2029 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2027 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill receives Royal Assent? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2027 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2025 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill receives Royal Assent? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2025 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will Scotland leave the UK before 2030 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will Scotland leave the UK before 2030 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill receives Royal Assent? | 0.51 | Manifold |
If no other big events happen and there is a big inter-community listening exercise, will EA split into 2 parties before 2025? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Chris Burniske (partner at Placeholder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will EA split into 2 parties before 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Erik Voorhees (founder of ShapeShift exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Fred Ehrsam (crypto investor, co-founder at Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Balaji Srinivasan (entrepreneur, investor) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Dnd beyond support an AI based DM by 2025? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will at least one >80% subsaharan ancestry country score above Ukraine on PISA for at least one year before 2100 without mass genetic enhancement? | 0.38 | Manifold |
SBF's initial trial concludes, or charges are resolved, including sentencing, by 2025 | 0.81 | Manifold |
There will be a company which offers LLM or AI-based arbitration by 2030 | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will PPMD compete in the SSBM singles bracket of a major tournament before 2025? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Romania qualify for the 2024 UEFA Euro? | 0.67 | Manifold |
If I create two markets for predicting the average income of new Harvard graduates in 2030, one unconditional and the other conditional on SCOTUS forcing them to ignore race in admissions, what will be the price delta averaged over a week? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030? | 0.33 | Manifold |
By 2060, will any country with >80% subsaharan African ancestry reach a real GDP PPP per capita of $50,000 in 2023 dollars, with <25% of its economy in natural resource sectors, without AGI or mass genetic enhancement? | 0.25 | Manifold |
Will Scott Alexander lose a job position for behavior, before 2030? | 0.03 | Manifold |
San Mateo Brewery "Fieldwork brewing" changes their name for political reasons by EOY 2024 | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Wells Fargo go bankrupt before 2030? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Truist go bankrupt before 2030? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the US abolish pennies (de facto) by 2030? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will Destiny Go Vegan Before 2025? | 0.2 | Manifold |
If in the next two weeks, Bostrom steps down as head of FHI, in a Twitter poll in 2024 will people say Bostrom email was worse for EA internal dynamics than FTX crisis? | 0.24 | Manifold |
If, in the next week, Bostrom gives a second apology that is well received, in a Twitter poll in 2024 will people say Bostrom email was worse for EA internal dynamics than FTX crisis? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will Vladimir Putin retire and appoint his successor in advance of the 2024 election? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2025? | 1 | Manifold |
Will 50 Americans have been confirmed to have been cured of thalassemia through gene therapy by the end of 2024? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030? | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will the Ukraine war end by 2025? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will there be a Godfather pinball machine announced before 2026? | 0.99 | Manifold |
Will Raphael Warnock run for president by 2040? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will manifold dollars be exchanged for real money in a secondary market before 2024? | 0.99 | Manifold |
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